Australian Broker Call
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September 28, 2021
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CKF - | Collins Foods | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
IAG - | Insurance Australia | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
Overnight Price: $6.00
Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -
Citi envisages greater likelihood that the company can deliver better top-line growth after its major manufacturer, Synlait Milk ((SM1)) guided to volume growth of 30-40% in infant formula in FY22.
The risk profile around a2 Milk's upcoming SAMR registration is assessed to be unchanged in view of the Synlait Milk results, and any residual concerns should be overshadowed by improving trading conditions over the next nine months, in Citi's view.
Buy rating and $7.20 target retained.
Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.00 Difference: $1.2
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.29, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.81 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.87 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.2, implying annual growth of 13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CKF COLLINS FOODS LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $11.61
Macquarie rates CKF as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
From industry feedback Macquarie deduces the recovery in the quick service restaurant market is improving and, moreover, Collins Foods is gaining share.
Growth in earnings will be supported by a consistent rolling out of stores. Meanwhile, online traffic was up 3.4% on the prior year to date.
Macquarie highlights category data that suggests chicken and Mexican-style fast food is growing faster than pizza, which augurs well for the company's KFC and Taco Bell brands. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target raised to $12.50 from $11.15.
Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $11.61 Difference: $0.89
If CKF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.72, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in May.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.30 cents and EPS of 46.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.2, implying annual growth of 63.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 26.50 cents and EPS of 52.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.3, implying annual growth of 13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CSL CSL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $306.26
Credit Suisse rates CSL as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse believes it will be difficult for CSL to achieve the same IG market share gains it saw pre-covid, due to competition. This is evident as Grifols is acquiring more plasma and Takeda is increasing scale and becoming more efficient in the plasma collection market.
CSL relies upon growth from new plasma centres which take three years to ramp-up, explains the analyst. The broker forecasts CSL’s share of plasma collected by the three players will fall to 37-38% in 2020/21 from 42% in 2019, and not recover to 42% until 2025.
Nonetheless, Credit Suisse believes the company's strategy to build greenfields centres will benefit in the long run, by having more efficient and higher-yielding centres. The $315 target and Neutral rating are unchanged.
Target price is $315.00 Current Price is $306.26 Difference: $8.74
If CSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $305.32, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 301.86 cents and EPS of 648.94 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 673.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 312.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.8. |
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 371.01 cents and EPS of 759.31 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 810.6, implying annual growth of 20.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 355.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.81
Macquarie rates IAG as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Macquarie believes the reaction to the Victorian earthquake has been overdone and, after allowing for quota shares, the company's maximum event retention of $169m is not expected to be breached.
The broker forecasts Insurance Australia Group is over provisioned by $400m for business interruption claims.
Macquarie assesses the stock is at an attractive discount of around -10-17%, depending on the valuation metrics, and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $5.70 from $5.40.
Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $0.89
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 25.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 29.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.6, implying annual growth of 7.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.41
Credit Suisse rates ILU as Neutral (3) -
Should Wimmera mineralisation in Victoria be exploited at about 30Mtpa, Credit Suisse believes Iluka Resouces' refinery plan will lead to a lucrative multi-generation business. Then, a REO refinery would make sense on the long-term potential.
There is a barrier to entry to REO refining, which may prevent margins being competed away, explains the analyst. By comparison to some other brokers, Credit Suisse remains conservative on the outlook and retains its Neutral rating and $8.80 target price.
Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $9.41 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.57, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 66.58 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.3, implying annual growth of -88.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 76.79 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.3, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.83
Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Overweight (1) -
The benchmark Tampa ammonia contract price has increased to US$665/t CFR. The increase stems from European producers reducing production in response to higher gas prices.
The price is now 30% ahead of Morgan Stanley's FY22 forecast of US$500/t. Spot prices imply upgrades of 50% to the broker's earnings forecasts for Incitec Pivot in FY22, underpinned by higher fertiliser prices and a lower Australian dollar.
Target is $3.55. Overweight maintained. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $0.72
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 130.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of 34.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates IPL as Buy (1) -
The October Tampa ammonia contract price has been announced at US$665/t, which is now up 161% over the year to date in what is usually a low season.
UBS notes global ammonia prices have tightened because of production curtailments in both Europe and North America. In Europe gas prices are near record levels and this has affected the profitability of ammonia plants.
UBS expects 30% EBIT growth in FY22 and free cash flow generation of around $400m for Incitec Pivot, noting the business is highly leveraged to the recovery in global agriculture. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $3.15 from $3.10.
Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $0.32
If IPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 130.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of 34.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.23
Macquarie rates JMS as Underperform (5) -
Equipment breakdowns during the second quarter have led to a loss of mining production and the company produced 945,000t while shipping 808,000t.
A soft distribution has been announced by Tshipi, which will affect the Jupiter Mines dividend in turn. This is a sign of challenging conditions in South Africa, Macquarie points out, while a board spill at Jupiter Mines has increased uncertainty.
Underperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.19 from $0.22.
Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If JMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in February.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.20 cents and EPS of 2.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.70
Macquarie rates LME as Outperform (1) -
American Airlines has terminated its contract with Limeade, effective from January 2022. The annual recurring revenue of the contract was US$1.9m as of August 2021. The termination is part of the airline's corporate cost-cutting initiative.
Macquarie believes the loss highlights the impact of churn on Limeade and will affect the forecast revenue recovery profile in FY22. In its favour, Limeade has a diverse customer base, points out the broker.
Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $1.12 from $1.64.
Target price is $1.12 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.42
If LME meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.26 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.32 cents. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.61
Citi rates SIG as Neutral (3) -
Sigma Healthcare has made a conditional counter bid for Australian Pharmaceutical Industries ((API)), valued at $1.57 a share and comprised of cash and shares.
Sigma has been granted access to due diligence, with Citi noting Wesfarmers ((WES)) has until October 16 to make a binding proposal on its increased $1.55 offer.
Whilst a merger between API and Sigma is a natural fit, Citi assesses the risk around ACCC approval is much higher than it is for Wesfarmers.
The broker points out in 2002 there was an attempt to merge Sigma and API which was not approved by the ACCC, although the drug distribution market has changed substantially since then. Neutral rating and $0.60 target maintained.
Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.65, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in January.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.60 cents and EPS of 3.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.4, implying annual growth of -43.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.80 cents and EPS of 3.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.9, implying annual growth of 14.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.45
Macquarie rates SM1 as Underperform (5) -
FY21 earnings were weaker than Macquarie expected. There was no quantitative FY22 guidance. Debt levels were better than the broker anticipated and, encouragingly, there is more certainty around the balance sheet.
Nevertheless, the results were affected by a sharp decline in a2 Milk ((A2M)) volumes. Macquarie expects FY22 will be a challenging year with limited improvement in high-value nutritional volumes.
Underperform maintained. Target is raised to NZ$3.40 from NZ$2.90 as a -10% discount is removed for balance sheet risk.
Current Price is $3.45. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting downside of -27.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.44 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.62 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of 67.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates SM1 as Buy (1) -
At first glance, FY21 results were at the low end of guidance. The normalised EBIT loss of -NZ$18m was much larger than UBS expected. The nutritionals performance was in line with the broker's expectations and strong sales volumes were offset by lower margins.
No guidance for FY22 was provided although the company expects a return to more normal ingredients performance, higher infant formula volumes and a better contribution for liquids & consumer foods. Buy retained. Target is unchanged at NZ$5.35.
Current Price is $3.45. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting downside of -27.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.25 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 34.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of 67.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates STO as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett assesses Santos has the most ambitious target for net zero emissions by 2040 compared with peers. Management is proposing 32mtpa of carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects across its three hubs.
The most advanced is the Moomba project for which a final investment decision will occur by the end of the year.
As momentum towards such targets builds, the broker expects tangible action will start to be evident amongst corporates and expects carbon offsets and negative emissions technologies such as CCS will play an important role. Buy rating and $8 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.74 Difference: $1.26
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.04, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.63 cents and EPS of 55.85 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.62 cents and EPS of 70.48 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.8, implying annual growth of 25.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
CKF | Collins Foods | $12.00 | Macquarie | 12.50 | 11.15 | 12.11% |
IAG | Insurance Australia | $4.84 | Macquarie | 5.70 | 5.40 | 5.56% |
IPL | Incitec Pivot | $2.94 | UBS | 3.15 | 3.10 | 1.61% |
JMS | Jupiter Mines | $0.23 | Macquarie | 0.19 | 0.20 | -5.00% |
LME | Limeade | $0.67 | Macquarie | 1.12 | 1.64 | -31.71% |
Summaries
A2M | a2 Milk Co | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $6.00 |
CKF | Collins Foods | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $11.61 |
CSL | CSL | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $306.26 |
IAG | Insurance Australia | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.81 |
ILU | Iluka Resources | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $9.41 |
IPL | Incitec Pivot | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.83 |
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.83 | ||
JMS | Jupiter Mines | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.23 |
LME | Limeade | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.70 |
SIG | Sigma Healthcare | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $0.61 |
SM1 | Synlait Milk | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.45 |
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.45 | ||
STO | Santos | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $6.74 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 8 |
3. Hold | 3 |
5. Sell | 2 |
Tuesday 28 September 2021
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