Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates ABP as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett has undertaken an in-depth analysis of the Australian REIT sector, which suggests asset values will recover more strongly than the broker previously expected.

The broker anticipates the shape of the recovery can be best described as the letter K, as some asset classes have strong capital growth prospects versus others that are in decline, and the chasm is widening.

The analysts move to a more positive stance on the sector, which sees the REITs that Ord Minnett covers trading about -10% on average below the broker’s  revised valuations.

Ord Minnett forecasts an average uplift in book values of 30% for industrial REITs, 25% for the long weighted average lease expiry (WALE) segment, and 15% for convenience retail and self-storage assets.

The broker’s review of $7bn of sales suggests transaction markets are strong (excluding retail malls), high-quality assets are "well bid" and return spreads are elevated, despite lower assumed long-term growth.

As a result of the review by Ord Minnett, the rating for Abacus Property Group is decreased to Hold from Accumulate and the target price is increased to $3.10 from $3.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.77 Difference: $0.33
If ABP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.90, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALX as Outperform (1) -

France has put into action new measures to contain covid-19, the implications of which for Atlas Arteria are no inter-regional travel, working from home and implementation of remote learning across universities.

Macquarie assumes car traffic to fall -90% with truck movement falling by -25% for the next six weeks with a rapid recovery thereafter.

While covid-19 may have a short term impact, the broker concedes the virus does hurt earnings which in turn will hit dividends in 2021. Fortunately, Atlas has plenty of surplus cash and the broker sees no financial threat.     

Macquarie retains its Outperform rating with the target decreasing slightly to $6.73 from $6.98.

Target price is $6.73 Current Price is $5.78 Difference: $0.95
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.01, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Equal-weight (3) -

A US-based private equity firm Ares Management has made an offer to buy AMP. 

Morgan Stanley reports Ares' offer values AMP at more than $5bn which aligns with the broker's target price of $1.60. AMP is currently undertaking a portfolio review of group businesses.

Equal-weight rating is maintained with the target price unchanged at $1.60. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.32
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Buy (1) -

ANZ Bank's earnings and dividend met expectations, while capital was surprisingly strong. Credit quality indicators were "exceedingly good", including 80-85% of deferred loans now being repaid, leading the broker to reduce its bad debt forecast and thus increase earnings.

Flat cost growth was also better than expected, but now that major customers have loads of liquidity, and market income is expected to normalise, the outlook for revenues is concerning. The broker retains Buy and $23.75 target but assumes ANZ will continue to trade at a discount to peers.

Target price is $23.75 Current Price is $18.70 Difference: $5.05
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.88, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ANZ as Outperform (1) -

In the wake of ANZ Bank's result, the broker believes much of the tail risk associated with bad debts is diminishing, given higher provisions for coverage, less risk-weighted asset inflation and prior deferred loan repayments recommencing at a rate better than feared. The bank is in a strong capital position.

The broker suggests another couple of months of positive loan deferral data will have the market refocusing on profitability, for which the broker is forecasting 25% growth for FY20-23. Outperform and $26.20 target retained.

Target price is $26.20 Current Price is $18.70 Difference: $7.5
If ANZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.88, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Outperform (1) -

Excluding large notable items, Macquarie notes ANZ Bank's FY20 result was about 4% ahead of the broker's estimate. The beat was led by a lower impairment charge. Volume growth was disappointing. 

Abnormally strong markets income performance helped ANZ Bank in FY20 but Macquarie assumes revenue will decline by -5-10% when things go back to normal in FY21. 

The bank's credit quality outlook is better as is the outlook on capital and dividend, assesses the broker.

Outperform rating with the target rising to $20 from $18.50.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $18.70 Difference: $1.3
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.88, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Overweight (1) -

ANZ Bank's second half showed a cash profit of $2,345m, circa -2% below Morgan Stanley's forecast of $2,396m. The broker expected lower loan losses and was disappointed with the bank's -$1,064m. The CET1 ratio was in-line at circa 11.3%.

Revenue excluding-notable items was about -1.5% below the broker's forecast in the second half, prompting the broker to downgrade its FY21 revenue growth estimate by circa -2.5%.

Despite softer revenue, Morgan Stanley is positive and believes the bank's cost control measures and lower risk profile will help compensate for revenue headwinds. In the broker's view, ANZ's effective capital management gives it the best dividend and recovery profile among the major banks.

Overweight. Target reduces to $19.40 from $20. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $19.40 Current Price is $18.70 Difference: $0.7
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.88, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANZ as Add (1) -

ANZ Bank has reported FY20 cash earnings (from continuing operations) of $3,758m, which is 7% better than Morgans expected. The beat was largely the result of the credit impairment charge and operating expenses being better than expected, explains the broker.

FY20 statutory profit (NPAT) is 3% better than Morgans expected, while the final dividend of 35 cents fully franked is a touch better than the analyst expected.

Morgans takes heart from three factors in this result for the outlook for expected credit loss (ECL) provisions.

Firstly, the bank has positively revised the unemployment rate and house price assumptions feeding into its ECL provisions.

Secondly, the bank has positively revised its credit risk weighted asset (CRWA) inflation guidance pertaining to credit portfolio migration.

Finally, the downtrend in loan deferrals has pleasingly continued, notes the broker.

Morgans is still not too concerned by the net interest margin (NIM) outlook and finds more ongoing tailwinds than headwinds for the measurement.

The Add rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $22.50 from $21.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $18.70 Difference: $3.8
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.88, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Accumulate (2) -

ANZ Bank reported FY20 cash earnings of $3,758bn, which was 1.7% above the Ord Minnett forecast. A final dividend of 35c per share was declared, in-line with the broker's estimate, taking the full-year payout to 60c per share.

The analyst lifts earnings forecasts as there were positive signs on both costs and asset quality. Credit costs were below the Ord Minnett forecast, collective provision coverage was boosted significantly and there were signs of improvement in the deferral book. Also, credit risk migration is likely to be more benign than the broker first thought.

Ord Minnett increases cash EPS forecasts by 7% in FY21 and 5% in FY22 due mainly to lower assumed loan losses.

The broker also lifts dividend forecasts significantly given lower expected credit risk migration and a solid CET1 ratio of 11.3%.

The Accumulate rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $20.30 from $20.

Target price is $20.30 Current Price is $18.70 Difference: $1.6
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.88, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Buy (1) -

ANZ Bank's second half result was on expected lines, although with a number of moving parts. Net interest income was down -5%, with net interest margin falling -12bps to 1.57%. Housing lending rose 4% while institutional loans fell -21%.

The credit impairment charges were lower than expected. CET1 was 11.34% and beat expectations led by a -4% reduction in risk-weighted assets.

With policy measures focused on housing and SMEs and more stimulus likely if the economy double-dips, UBS assesses the outlook for credit quality and capital to be stronger than previously envisaged. This in turn points to the likelihood of higher dividends.

UBS sees ANZ Bank as being leveraged to an economic recovery and maintains its Buy rating. The target price remains $21.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $18.70 Difference: $2.3
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.88, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Bellevue Gold had a busy September quarter, observes Macquarie, as the company continued to implement its two-pronged strategy of inventory growth and working on development activities. 

The miner spent -$10.4m in the first quarter related to exploration and evaluation. The broker expects a resource update in the second quarter.  

Macquarie maintains its Outperform rating with a target price of $1.50.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.34
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BWP as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett has undertaken an in-depth analysis of the Australian REIT sector, which suggests asset values will recover more strongly than the broker previously expected.

The broker anticipates the shape of the recovery can be best described as the letter K, as some asset classes have strong capital growth prospects versus others that are in decline, and the chasm is widening.

The analysts move to a more positive stance on the sector, which sees the REITs that Ord Minnett covers trading about -10% on average below the broker’s  revised valuations.

Ord Minnett forecast an average uplift in book values of 30% for industrial REITs, 25% for the long weighted average lease expiry (WALE) segment, and 15% for convenience retail and self-storage assets.

The broker’s review of $7bn of sales suggests transaction markets are strong (excluding retail malls), high-quality assets are ‘well bid’ and return spreads are elevated, despite lower assumed long-term growth.

As a result of the review by Ord Minnett, the rating for BWP Trust is decreased to Hold from Buy and the target price is increased to $4.40 from $4.30.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $0.36
If BWP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.63, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley provides an update on CSL's Japanese rival Takeda. Takeda reported flat immunoglobulin growth in the second quarter. The company did not provide any specifics on plasma collection other than a potential timing shift in plasma supply due to covid.

On the other hand, CSL's immunoglobulin sales grew by 14% in the second half. The broker assesses demand on CSL's safety stock to be robust with solid FY21 net profit guidance.

Equal-weight rating with a target price of $282. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $282.00 Current Price is $291.50 Difference: minus $9.5 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $309.96, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DRR as Initiation of coverage with Sell (5) -

The broker has initiated coverage of Deterra Royalties, recently spun off from Iluka Resources ((ILU)), which derives its income from BHP Group's ((BHP)) iron ore production in Mining Area C.

While there is little in the way of comparable listed peers, the broker has nonetheless based a valuation on implied long term iron ore pricing in the valuations of miners and has come up with US$58-67/t versus Deterra's implied US$92/t. The broker thus initiates with a Sell rating and a $3.40 target, implying a 5.9% dividend yield.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DXS as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett has undertaken an in-depth analysis of the Australian REIT sector, which suggests asset values will recover more strongly than the broker previously expected.

The broker anticipates the shape of the recovery can be best described as the letter K, as some asset classes have strong capital growth prospects versus others that are in decline, and the chasm is widening.

The analysts move to a more positive stance on the sector, which sees the REITs that Ord Minnett covers trading about -10% on average below the broker’s  revised valuations.

Ord Minnett forecast an average uplift in book values of 30% for industrial REITs, 25% for the long weighted average lease expiry (WALE) segment, and 15% for convenience retail and self-storage assets.

The broker’s review of $7bn of sales suggests transaction markets are strong (excluding retail malls), high-quality assets are ‘well bid’ and return spreads are elevated, despite lower assumed long-term growth.

As a result of the review by Ord Minnett, the rating for Dexus Property Group is decreased to Hold from Accumulate and the target price is increased to $9.85 from $9.65.

Target price is $9.85 Current Price is $8.73 Difference: $1.12
If DXS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.45, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has provided an update on Fineos Corp's September quarter activities.

Fineos Corp's cash receipts in the first quarter were 25% of Macquarie's revenue forecast for FY21. Product consulting utilisation was 87% against the target of 85%. Utilisation was in-line with management expectations although fell short of the 91% seen in the fourth quarter. 

Outperform rating and $6.25 target retained.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $4.64 Difference: $1.61
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FCT as Add (1) -

In the fourth quarter FY20, and again in the first quarter FY21, Firstwave Cloud Technology has delivered healthy revenue growth, in the opinion of Morgans.

The broker believes the strategy and financial targets are all on-track. Revenue booked for the first quarter was 16% ahead of the company’s target, costs were reduced as expected and cash is ahead of plan, says the analyst. It’s also considered the company is comfortably funded beyond the next twelve months.

Morgans explains that partners who become billing partners and ramp-up their own internal sales efforts, are the key to revenue generation. Importantly the new billing partners are selling directly to their end customers.

Billing partners generate International Annualised Recurring Revenue (IARR). In the broker’s view, validation comes from accelerating IARR rather than a specific number.

The Speculative Buy rating and target price of $0.179 are unchanged.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.059
If FCT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Buy (1) -

Record September quarter shipments for Fortescue Metals were in line with the broker's forecast and costs were a little lower. The Eliwana and Iron Bridge projects are on time on and on budget and FY21 guidance was unchanged.

While net debt is expected to rise in FY22/23 due to project capex and anticipated lower iron ore prices, it should not preclude a high 80% dividend payout ratio. The broker estimates an FY21 yield of around 13%. Buy and $18.50 target retained.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $16.62 Difference: $1.88
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.76, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Fortescue Metals has made a strong start to FY21 with record shipments in the September quarter. The miner achieved 89% revenue realisation and finished the quarter in a solid cash position, the broker notes.

The broker believes the iron ore price will roll over at some point but while it remains resilient above US$100/t, the cash keeps flowing in for Fortescue and another big dividend is on the cards for February. The broker predicts $1.10 on a 6% payout and suggests the yield is enough to keep investors happy in such times of uncertainty.

Neutral and $16.50 target retained.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $16.62 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.76, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Fortescue Metals Group's first-quarter result beat Macquarie's forecast on all counts. Shipments and realised prices were 2% and 8% ahead of the broker's estimates. Cash costs were lower than what the broker had forecast.

Macquarie notes the development of the Eliwana project remains on schedule to deliver the first ore on train before the end of December 2020.

Higher iron-ore prices continue to drive strong momentum for the miner. Outperform rating maintained with the target price rising to $20 from $19.50.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $16.62 Difference: $3.38
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.76, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Fortescue Metals Group's first-quarter production was in-line with Morgan Stanley albeit with slightly weaker than expected shipments on account of inventory replenishment. Costs also beat the broker's estimate.

The broker notes the Eliwana project is on track for the first ore to be on train in December. 

FY21 guidance remains unchanged with FY21 shipments expected to be 175-180mt versus the broker's forecast of 183mt.

Morgan Stanley maintains its Underweight rating with a target price of $14.10. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $16.62 Difference: minus $2.52 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.76, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Hold (3) -

Morgans considers Fortescue has put in a strong performance to start the year, with exceptional prices (impressive 89% price realisation in the first quarter).

The first quarter iron ore shipments of 44.3mt, were in-line with Morgans' estimate, but ahead of the consensus of the broking community. It was considered an impressive start to the year also in cash production cost (C1) at US$12.74/wet metric tonne (wmt) in the first quarter compared to Morgans' expectations of US$12.85/wmt and consensus of US$13.4/wmt.

A solid cost performance was helped by a dip in the strip ratio and good volumes, notes the broker. The company has maintained FY21 shipments, C1 cost and capital expenditure guidance.

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $15.80 from $15.60.

Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $16.62 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.76, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Buy (1) -

Fortescue Metals Group delivered a strong operational result for the September quarter, in the opinion of Ord Minnett.

Highlights for the broker includes shipments running at 176 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa), with average revenue of US$106/t and costs of US$12.7/t, which were below the US$13–13.5/t guidance range. Additionally, net cash of US$1bn was below the analyst's forecast due to higher-than-expected capital expenditure and tax charges. However, the FY21 capital expenditure budget remains US$3–3.4bn.

Ord Minnett declares the company continues to offer some of the most compelling valuation metrics among stocks under the broker's coverage, with 24% potential upside to the analyst's discounted cash flow valuation,  and an 11% dividend yield over the next two years.

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $20.40 from $20.

Target price is $20.40 Current Price is $16.62 Difference: $3.78
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.76, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Buy (1) -

September quarter shipments were in-line with UBS's forecast while average realised price beat the broker's estimate. Costs, benefitting from a low strip ratio and lagged oil-indexed fuel contracts, were down -2%.

The group is targeting the upper end of its payout ratio for annual dividends. UBS forecasts the FY21 dividend to be $2.07

UBS retains its Buy rating with a target price of $19.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $16.62 Difference: $2.38
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.76, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GOZ as Outperform (1) -

Growthpoint Properties has reaffirmed guidance of a 20c FY21 dividend but despite no actual earnings guidance being offered, the broker suggests this might be conservative. Rent collection of 99% in the September quarter was a key positive.

Unlike comparable REITs with large CBD office exposure, Growthpoint is more metro-exposed and has only a 3% exposure to small business and relatively low exposure to retail, the broker notes. A target increase to $3.52 from $3.41 is still below the REIT's stated net tangible asset value but the broker sees little downside risk to yield.

Outperform retained.

Target price is $3.52 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.14
If GOZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.53, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GPT as Outperform (1) -

GPT Group's quarterly update did not include guidance which is understandable, the broker concedes, given Victoria represents 40% of the diversified REIT's overall portfolio and 45% of its retail portfolio, and restrictions have only this week been lifted. Yet rent collections returned to 90% from the prior quarter's 67%.

Retail collection is still weak at 81% but not so bad when tenant retail sales fell -4.3% in a quarter in which Victoria was locked down. On the strength of GPT's balance sheet the broker retains Outperform and a $4.29 target.

Target price is $4.29 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $0.25
If GPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GPT as Underweight (5) -

GPT Group's rent collection for the September quarter was 90% with retail at an impressive 81% (94% if Victoria is excluded). However, Morgan Stanley points out cash collected included rent billed in the previous months.

No funds from operations (FFO) guidance was provided despite only having two months to go in 2020, an anomaly management indicates is due to the impact of Melbourne lock-downs impacting rent relief deals. The broker expects FFO of 25.3c for 2020.

Underweight rating with a target of $4.00. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If GPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GPT as Buy (1) -

Rent collection rates for GPT Group were 90% in the September quarter although UBS highlights the quarter also included billings from the June quarter that were collected in the third quarter.

Office and logistics occupancy was maintained at 94.1% and 99.8%. Valuation declines of -0.3% for office and -1.9%  for retail were recorded, a better outcome than anticipated. FY20 FFO guidance remains withdrawn even though there are only two months remaining.

UBS believes the market is overlooking GPT Group's logistics exposure and Melbourne's rebound potential and maintains its Buy rating. The target price is unchanged at $4.50.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $0.46
If GPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HLO as Add (1) -

Helloworld’s first quarter result was largely in-line with Morgans expectations, with the corporate business back at 40% of pre-covid-19 levels. However, retail and wholesale are at less than 5% due to their exposure to inbound and outbound travel and border closures, explains the broker.  It’s considered network numbers in Australia have held up well.

Corporate travel is benefiting from government and essential services contracts, while leisure travel is being impacted by border closures, details the analyst.

Management expects second quarter revenue to be at 10-15% of the previous corresponding period, improving to 15-20% in the third quarter.  Due to border closures, the company has pushed out the breakeven/profit target from January to the fourth quarter 2021. Based on this guidance, Morgans now forecasts an FY21 earnings (EBITDA) loss of -$12.6m compared to a small profit of $2.0m previously.

The Add rating is unchanged and the target price is decreased to $2.28 from $2.38.

Target price is $2.28 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $0.56
If HLO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAP as No Rating (-1) -

Investec Australia Property's first-half funds from operations (FFO) missed Macquarie's forecast by circa -4%, impacted by higher rent relief and more than expected dilution from the sale of Ann Street.

Driven by a subdued office market, occupancy declined by -150bps to 97.5%. On a positive note, the group extended its weighted average lease expiry (WALE) to 4.8 years from 4.5 years in March 2020.

Macquarie suggests the group will have relative income certainty, given 2.7% of expiries through FY21 and 8.7% in FY22. The present gearing level of 22.4% is below the group’s target range of 30–40%. The REIT continues to look for opportunities to deploy capital.

Macquarie is research restricted and cannot provide a rating/target.

Current Price is $1.23. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IAP as No Rating (-1) -

Investec Australia Property Fund reported a "solid" first-half FY21 result, with funds from operations (FFO) of $28.1m , or 4.60 cents per unit, down -7.6% on a year ago, but 3.8% ahead of Ord Minnett’s forecast.

The result highlighted the resilience of the Fund's portfolio to the broker, with strong leasing volumes and a reversal of the devaluations recognised in March.

Industrial remains Ord Minnett's preferred property asset class, but the broker sees some risk to metropolitan office valuations given the potential structural shift to work-from-home in the wake of covid-19.

Ord Minnett is research-restricted on the Fund and, as such, unable to provide a recommendation or price target.

Current Price is $1.23. Target price not assessed.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IFL as Outperform (1) -

IOOF Holdings' September quarter funds under management were largely in line with the broker.

Outflows were around -4% but this includes early release superannuation, the broker notes. When this subsides and flows improve, plus the MLC transaction completes, value could be crystallised.

IOOF is a medium term value story, the broker suggests, but might be fast-tracked by active M&A in the sector. Outperform and $5.00 target retained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $2.06
If IFL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 59.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFL as No Rating (-1) -

IOOF Holdings' first-quarter flows including pension payments and super release were largely negative. The financial advice segment was positive, but the portfolio administration, investment management and former ANZ businesses were all negative.

23 financial advisors with $450m of funds under management, advice and administration (FUMA) moved to the external licence model (IOOF Alliances) although Morgan Stanley reports they will continue to use IOOF's services.

The broker suspects investors will be interested in tracking the FUMA in IOOF Alliances to see its stickiness. 

Morgan Stanley is currently restricted on rating and target. Industry view: In-Line.

Current Price is $2.94. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 59.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

IGO’s September quarter production came in ahead of pro-rata FY guidance on cost metrics, the broker notes, and the Boston Shaker underground ramp-up is on track. Management is considering its capital position and may return cash as dividends in February, but has made no secret of its intention to pursue M&A and may spin out Tropicana.

The broker retains Neutral and a $5.30 target, noting the nickel backdrop remains challenging given increasing Indonesian production.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: $0.94
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.85, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

With higher production and lower costs at IGO's operations at Tropicana and Nova, the September quarter result exceeded expectations. The company ended the quarter with cash of $508.5m and no debt.

However, this wasn't enough to get IGO to increase its guidance although the miner does expect production to remain at the upper end of the guidance for the second quarter before declining to the lower end of the range in the second half.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating with the target increasing to $5.60 from $5.30.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: $1.24
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.85, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Equal-weight (3) -

IGO reported an in-line September quarter at its Nova operation with nickel production -4% below Morgan Stanley's forecast and cash costs in-line. At IGO's Tropicana operation, gold production beat the broker's estimate by 14% while costs were -16% lower than expected.

Overall, the net profit beat Morgan Stanley's expectations. FY21 guidance was maintained with a greater skew towards the first half at both sites. FY21-22 earnings growth forecasts have been increased slightly by the broker.

Equal-weight. Target price rises to $5 from $$4.90. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: $0.64
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.85, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Buy (1) -

IGO's September quarter results impressed UBS with higher production and lower costs at the miner's operations at Nova and Tropicana. UBS calculates IGO's share price to be trading at a circa -20% discount to its net present value but expects this gap will be closed soon by M&A options, the sale or demerger of its Tropicana operation or dividends.

IGO has surplus cash of $509m and the broker thinks the company might go for M&A opportunities in the nickel business.   

UBS maintains its Buy rating with the target price reducing to $5.45 from $5.50.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: $1.09
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.85, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IPL as Buy (1) -

Incitec Pivot's focus on maintaining its manufacturing efficiency and a disciplined approach to capital investment makes Citi more confident about the outlook.

Citi expects the company to deliver $20m as part of its three-year cost-out program (targeting $60 million by FY22). Fertiliser outlook is positive but the broker is more cautious on explosives especially with respect to coal.

FY20 operating income is expected to be -3% below consensus at $397m. Incitec will report its FY20 result on November 10.

Buy rating and $2.40 target maintained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.97 Difference: $0.43
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 33.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IPL as Outperform (1) -

The broker believes the market is focusing too much on the pending death of thermal coal and ignoring firming fertiliser prices, improved crop conditions in Australia and steady plant performance, when valuing Incitec Pivot.

A clean sweep victory for the Democrats would increase the rate of decline of US thermal coal production but ammonium nitrate used for explosives can be redirected into urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) fertiliser, the broker notes. There will be longer term earnings risk but not dire.

On spot fertiliser prices, the broker retains Outperfom. Target rises to $3.31 from $3.27.

Target price is $3.31 Current Price is $1.97 Difference: $1.34
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 33.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

JB Hi-Fi and Good Guys sales slowed in August-September as Citi expected given super withdrawals were made in July and then Melbourne went into lockdown. The December quarter should be incrementally slower again, but the broker increases earnings forecasts on the assumption of a longer duration of elevated sales as the housing outlook improves into the second half FY21 and FY22.

Low interest rates are supporting investment in the home, driving demand for household goods and offsetting the pull-forward of sales in the September quarter, Citi suggests. Target rises to $49.30 from $44.80, upgrade to Neutral from Sell.

Target price is $49.30 Current Price is $47.38 Difference: $1.92
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.37, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

JB Hi-Fi posted a cracker of a quarter both under its own name and for the Good Guys, but then we knew they would. The negative share price reaction (albeit on a tough day) reflects a market assumption the bonanza won't last, the broker suggests.

Aside from Victoria reopening to bolster this quarter, the broker is not convinced 2020 will be a one-hit wonder for the company, rather several strong quarters still lie ahead.

For the December quarter the broker highlights the increased number of residents at home for Christmas (not overseas), limited spending options and margins benefiting from renegotiated store rents.

Target rises to $50.62 from $50.21, Neutral retained.

Target price is $50.62 Current Price is $47.38 Difference: $3.24
If JBH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.37, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JBH as Outperform (1) -

The trading update for JB Hi-Fi highlights to Macquarie the strength of the Australian consumer. JB Australia sales were up 28%, The Good Guys (TGG) sales were up 31%, while JB NZ were down -2.5% due to trading restrictions.

Given TGG sales tend to be at a higher price point than JB Australia, the broker believes this suggests consumer spending is bigger ticket and less stimulus driven.

The analyst sees consumer durable spending remaining elevated while international travel is restricted.

The broker sees a strong Christmas period supported by an exciting product pipeline of new consoles (Sony said yesterday that PS5 pre-orders in first 12 hrs exceeded that of PS4 in first 12 wks) and the new iPhone. Also there is the additional time spent at home and a delayed timeline on international borders, notes the analyst.

The Outperform rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $54.90 from $53.70.

Target price is $54.90 Current Price is $47.38 Difference: $7.52
If JBH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.37, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JBH as Equal-weight (3) -

JB Hi-Fi's first-quarter trading was "exceptionally strong" with JB Australia's sales growth of 27.6% beating Morgan Stanley's forecast of 17%. The Good Guys grew by 30.9%, again well ahead of the broker's 17%.

Morgan Stanley points out JB Hi-Fi's growth rate slowed to circa 26% across August and September from 40.4% in July. The progressive slowing was due to the temporary closure of stores in Melbourne from August.

Equal-weight. Target is $47. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $47.38 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $49.37, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JBH as Hold (3) -

JB Hi-Fi  provided a first-quarter FY21 trading update at its AGM.

Like-for-like (LFL) sales growth in August and September moderated slightly, but remained extremely strong at 19% and 26%, respectively, reports Ord Minnett. When the Melbourne lock down headwind is removed, the growth was 27% and 35%, respectively.

The analyst details LFL sales growth of 27.6% for JB Australia (versus 44.2% growth in July), a decline of -2.5% for JB New Zealand (9.1% growth in July) and 30.9% growth for The Good Guys (40.4% growth in July).

Ord Minnett increases EPS forecasts by 11% in FY21 and 2% in FY22. 

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $50 from $48.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $47.38 Difference: $2.62
If JBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.37, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

JB Hi-Fi's first-quarter group like-for-like sales were up circa 29%. Ex-Victoria, like-for-like sales were up more than 35% versus last year.

The company is trading at a circa 40% premium to its history and circa 20% ahead of its usual premium to peers. UBS suspects the market is not pricing in the risks from a pull-forward and below industry level online penetration.

UBS considers JB Hi-Fi as one of the best-run electronics retailers globally. The company is expected to benefit from a continued re-allocation of travel spend and tech releases in the near term. 

Noting few catalysts, UBS retains its Neutral rating with the target price increased to $47.80 from $47.60.

Target price is $47.80 Current Price is $47.38 Difference: $0.42
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.37, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates JHG as Neutral (3) -

Janus Henderson posted a solid beat on its quarterly numbers but the broker notes the beat was supported by items that may not be recurring in outer years. Strength in performance fees is nevertheless set to continue, with management forecasting December quarter fees to be up year on year.

The broker has increased earnings forecasts but is unconvinced improving flows are sustainable. There are a number of levers the fund manager could pull if activist investor Trian gets its way, the broker notes, which could unlock value. Target rises to $36.50 from $26.00, Neutral retained.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $35.94 Difference: $0.56
If JHG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.20, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHG as Outperform (1) -

Janus Henderson Group released third quarter results and the operating result beat Macquarie's expectations, driven by higher management fees and performance fees, partially offset by higher expenses.

The broker highlights the rate of outflows decreased materially to $2.9bn, with Intech and FI the big improvers.

The analyst sees further multiple upside should improvements in flow momentum be sustained.

Macquarie lifts EPS estimates for FY20 by 9.1% and FY21 by 8.9%, due to better flows, mark-to-market impact on AUM and increased performance fees partially offset by higher costs.

Macquarie retains its Outperform rating with the target price increasing to $40 from $38.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $35.94 Difference: $4.06
If JHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.20, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHG as Equal-weight (3) -

Janus Henderson Group's adjusted third-quarter earnings per share of US$0.70 was 9% ahead of Morgan Stanley's forecast. The beat was driven by a combination of better assets under management, performance fees and higher operating margin.

However, since the stock was recently re-rated, the broker expects a modest positive share price reaction. Balance sheet remains strong.

Morgan Stanley reaffirms its Equal-weight rating with a target price of $40.10. Industry view is In-line.

Target price is $40.10 Current Price is $35.94 Difference: $4.16
If JHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.20, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JIN as Overweight (1) -

Jumbo Interactive provided a trading update for its September quarter with the total transaction value (TTV) declining by -6% to $108m. Revenue at $22.3m fell -2% versus the June quarter.

Morgan Stanley is surprised at the result, achieved despite the jackpots prize pools shrinking -50% versus last year and total tickets sold falling by -28%.

The broker expects growth in reseller TTV to be 16% and also expects SaaS revenue to increase through the remainder of FY21. 

Morgan Stanley reiterates its Overweight rating with a target price of $14.30. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $14.30 Current Price is $11.58 Difference: $2.72
If JIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

Karoon Energy released quarterly results showing production from Bauna of 15.6kbopd, which was around 5% ahead of Morgans estimate.

The company finished the first quarter with $399m in cash, which was in-line with the broker’s estimate. The analyst notes the key market focus remains timing of deal completion on the Bauna transaction

First quarter commentary is considered to point to the company having worked through the conditions attached to the ANP’s approval, with the company now working to finalise the FPSO charter and transaction close in the next week. ANP is the oil sector regulator in Brazil and FSPO is a floating production, storage and offloading facility.

There is still some chance that the transaction is finalised on the 30 October target date, says the broker.

The Add rating and target price of $1.56 are unchanged.

Target price is $1.56 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.76
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 95% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.35, suggesting upside of 75.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MME as Add (1) -

MoneyMe provided its first quarter business update to the market.

Morgans highlights originations in the quarter of around $45m (up 39% on the fourth quarter) and the gross loan book at 30 September was around $138m (up 33% on previous corresponding period).

The analyst lowers FY21 and FY22 EPS forecasts marginally by around -3%-4% on slightly reduced loan book growth assumptions. The target price is reduced slightly to $1.95 from $2.01.

The broker continues to believe the company’s existing product suite/pipeline accompanied with the new warehouse facility should provide medium-term tailwinds for loan book growth/profitability.

The Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.56
If MME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MME as Buy (1) -

MoneyMe's first quarter gross income rose by 18% on the previous corresponding period and was likely flat on the fourth quarter, as Ord Minnett had expected.

The broker believes that the company is on course to meet the broker's FY21 forecasts, as indicated by improving credit conditions and as evidenced by a greater than 30% month-on-month increase in September originations.

This combined with the timing of the new warehouse funding facility and the benefit of recent product launches are considered further reasons for optimism in meeting the forecast.

Ord Minnett thinks the capacity for the company to grow market share at a multiple of system growth remains strong, supported by favourable customer acquisition metrics.

The Buy rating and $1.92 price target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.92 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.53
If MME meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCM as Buy (1) -

Newcrest Mining posted a mixed quarter featuring lower than forecast production and higher costs. FY21 production/cost guidance is nonetheless retained and the broker expects a better December quarter.

With an initial source due for Havieron this quarter the broker retains Buy. Target falls to $35.50 from $36.00.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $29.42 Difference: $6.08
If NCM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.16, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NCM as Outperform (1) -

September quarter production was down across all of Newcrest's mines but it always is in the maintenence quarter, the broker notes. Despite maintenance, one quarter of full year production guidance was achieved. If Lihir can finally get its act together then this bodes well.

While the broker is cautious of Newcrest's near term production profile, which is ex-growth and inferior to peers, the broker does like its peer-leading RSC base, long-term growth prospects, technical capability, and reasonable valuation. Outperform and $37.70 target retained.

Target price is $37.70 Current Price is $29.42 Difference: $8.28
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.16, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

Newcrest Mining’s first quarter FY20 production result was in-line with Macquarie's estimates while group all in sustaining cost (AISC) was within 4% of the broker's expectation.

The broker believes the company is tracking nicely compared to FY21 guidance, despite significant maintenance programs at multiple operations in the first quarter.

Macquarie looks forward to a maiden inferred resource estimate for Havieron in the second half, with the prospect continuing to display encouraging results.

The Neutral rating and target price of $33 are unchanged.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $29.42 Difference: $3.58
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.16, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Overweight (1) -

Newcrest Mining's first-quarter production was a slight miss to Morgan Stanely's forecast led by Lihir's planned and unplanned shutdowns. However, management remains confident about Lihir in FY21.

Cadia's performance was mostly in-line with the broker although costs were significantly higher. More good drill hits at Havieron were reported. 

Overweight rating maintained with a target price of $32.90. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $32.90 Current Price is $29.42 Difference: $3.48
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.16, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NCM as Buy (1) -

While UBS is quite happy with Newcrest Mining's in-line production, the higher costs have disappointed the broker. The costs were mostly a result of foreign exchange headwinds and scheduled maintenance at Newcrest's operations at Lihir, Cadia and Telfer.

The exploration report at Havieron, with drilling results suggesting better grades at depth, has UBS excited. While it looks like the market hasn't woken up to the potential at Havieron, the broker expects this to change over the next 12 months.

UBS maintains its Buy rating with the target declining to $38 from $38.50 due to higher costs anticipated.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $29.42 Difference: $8.58
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.16, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Outperform (1) -

The Nickel Mines third quarter result was mixed, according to Macquarie, with -4% lower nickel production offset by 7%
higher sales. Realised prices were -10% weaker than the broker had expected, while cash costs were -15% lower than forecast.

Improving NPI grades suggest there is material upside to the broker's forecasts for both Hengjaya/Ranger and Weda Bay.

The analyst believes upgrade momentum remains strong under a spot price scenario and the completion of the Weda Bay transaction is a key catalyst for the company.

Macquarie cuts the 2020 earnings forecast by -8% after incorporating the weaker third quarter result.

The Outperform rating and target price of $1.20 are unchanged.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.25
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NTO as Overweight (1) -

Nitro Software has upgraded its FY20 annual recurring revenue guidance to US$26-$27m from US$24.4m, above expectations with sales momentum continuing in the September quarter. Revenue forecasts have been reaffirmed at US$40.5m.

Nitro is making progress on its revenue mix shift with September quarter subscription revenues 56% of total revenue, up from 48% in the first half. The company has also bolstered operations, increasing its headcount to 168 and making key hires across finance, marketing and product.

The broker maintains its Overweight rating with a target price increasing of $2.60. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If NTO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORE as Buy (1) -

Production was temporarily suspended at Olaroz this week due a virus case but has now recommenced. Meanwhile, Orocobre's September quarter production was down due to maintenance and pricing was weaker on inventory management, the broker notes.

The recent raising enhances visibility on new projects and commissioning of these projects is likely to improve the volume base and product mix for the miner, the broker believes. Buy (High Risk) retained, target falls to $3.40 from $3.70.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $0.88
If ORE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ORE as Neutral (3) -

Orocobre posted a soft start to FY21 given planned maintenance, a miss on sales and a record low realised sales price due to discounting to clear inventory, the broker notes.

Management called it a bottom and the broker tends to agree, given increasing demand, falling Chinese inventories and rising demand for EVs.

There may be some demand disruption with France/Germany going back into lockdowns but new emmission reduction targets across the globe should support greater EV adoption.

The broker nevertheless wants to see some evidence before becoming more excited, hence Neutral and $2.85 target retained.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $0.33
If ORE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORE as Underperform (5) -

Orocobre reported its first quarter production and activities. The company produced 2.3kt of lithium carbonate in the quarter, ahead of the Macquarie forecast as covid restrictions are having less impact than the broker anticipated.

However, covid restrictions have had a negative impact on construction at Olaroz Stage 2 and delayed equipment deliveries to Naraha, notes the analyst.

The company recently boosted its balance sheet and is well placed to take advantage of any improved demand, assures the broker.

Incorporating the production result lifts Macquarie's FY21 EPS forecast by 6%. Including the additional dilution from the equity raise, drives -1% to -5% cuts to FY22-FY25 EPS forecasts. The additional share dilution also cuts the brrokers target price by -5% to $2.00.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORE as Equal-weight (3) -

Orecobre's first-quarter metrics were pre-flagged. The result was mixed with sales -11% less than expected while realised prices and production were ahead of the broker's forecasts.

Morgan Stanley is pleased with the company's improving brine concentration, the highest in about 3 years, which will help costs, quality and production.

The company reported its Olaroz Stage 2 project is expected to commence production in FY23 and ramp up by FY26, slower than anticipated. The Naraha project may also be delayed due to issues with overseas equipment deliveries.

Equal-weight rating with a target price of $2.60. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $0.08
If ORE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORE as Neutral (3) -

Orocobre's September quarter production at 2.4kt was down -24% versus last year, driven by a 3-week long shutdown. Sales were disappointing and below guidance, with the final shipment delayed to early October.

UBS notes more bad news in the form of project slippages with the commissioning of Naraha hydroxide project pushed back to commence in the second half of 2021. Stage 2 Olaroz expansion is also making slow progress due to covid-19.

Orocobre believes the worst may be behind with improving electric vehicles demand leading to more demand for lithium. This is the result of a normalising Chinese market.

UBS maintains its Neutral rating with a target price of $2.50.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

Lagging mine production in Latin American and Africa, driven by virus issues was the principal reason for Origin Energy's guidance downgrade in October, the broker notes.

A slower and more drawn out recovery in production than was initially envisaged now seems likely, and coal price weakness has added to the issues.

Neutral and $16.41 target retained.

Target price is $16.41 Current Price is $15.47 Difference: $0.94
If ORI meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.21, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Sell (5) -

Pilbara Minerals had already released its headline September quarter numbers but the broker increases FY21 forecasts modestly on updated December quarter guidance. 

The Pilgangoora mine is expected remain a core supply source for future lithium, but the broker needs to see prices recovering for a number of quarters before turning more constructive on the stock. Sell and 32c target retained.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting downside of -24.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Underperform (5) -

Pilbara Minerals reported its full production statistics for the first quarter. Preliminary numbers were released earlier in the month.

The company shipped 43.6kt of concentrate in the quarter and has guided to 55kt to 70kt of shipments in the December quarter, notes the broker.

The company also announced a conditional agreement to acquire the Altura Mining ((AJM)) lithium operation.

Due to research restrictions, Macquarie cannot advise its valuation on the company at present.

Current Price is $0.43. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting downside of -24.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates REA as Neutral (3) -

REA Group intends to up its stake in Elara Technologies to a controlling interest to increase exposure to India, in a scrip/cash mix offer.

The price multiple is not unreasonable, the broker suggests, but reflects a rich control premium. Digital real estate penetration is still low in India in a highly fragmented market.

Resulting dilution is minimal but the broker is not including the stake in valuation until completed. Neutral and $109 target for now.

Target price is $109.00 Current Price is $122.86 Difference: minus $13.86 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $111.97, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates REA as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's first response to the news that REA Group will be investing -$100m in India is to advise caution.

The broker considers India to be fragmented and highly competitive and highlights a lot of Australian companies that have tried to make business in India work have been disappointed.

The broker expects the path to profitability to be more challenging than anticipated. But if the company could make things works, profit could be significant, adds the broker. The investment will hit REA's operating income by -5% but is valuation neutral.

Overweight rating maintained with a target price of $140. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $122.86 Difference: $17.14
If REA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $111.97, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates REA as Hold (3) -

REA Group announced it will look to increase its stake in Elara Technologies to between 47.2% and 61.1% from 13.5%. The company first invested into Elara in 2017.

The broker notes the total consideration is expected to be in the range of -US$50–70m, and will be funded through a combination of existing cash reserves and newly issued REA Group shares. On completion, REA Group will hold five out of nine board seats.

The broker assumes REA Group will take a 54.2% stake in Elara (the mid-point of guidance). News Corporation ((NWS)) has a 38.9% cumulative holding.

Ord Minnett updates first half cash flow forecasts to account for the partial cash payment -$49m and new issues of 199,500 shares (also in the middle of the 0–249,300 range).

The Hold rating and target price of $104 are unchanged.

Target price is $104.00 Current Price is $122.86 Difference: minus $18.86 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $111.97, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RWC as Outperform (1) -

Reliance Worldwide Corp released a trading update and incremental data largely point to a continuation of first quarter trading patterns across regions, in the opinion of Macquarie.

The broker warns outlook visibility is still opaque, particularly with increasing Europe covid cases and softer Australian multi-residential activity.

In Americas, the company noted market uncertainty without further stimulus and the analyst expects some resolution post-election.

The Outperform rating and $4.60 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $0.49
If RWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.36, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RWC as Hold (3) -

Reliance Worldwide provided a trading update for the first quarter, led by strong growth in the Americas region, according to Morgans.

First quarter group sales were up 14% (or 17% on a constant currency basis).

Americas sales (constant currency) jumped 22% on the back of strong growth in both the US retail and hardware channels as well as a recovery in both wholesale channels, explains the broker.

Management advised that positive sales momentum has been maintained in October across all regions.

While the trading update was better than Morgans expected, the broker make no changes to earnings forecasts given the ongoing uncertain operating environment.

The Hold rating and target price of $4.39 are unchanged.

Target price is $4.39 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $0.28
If RWC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.36, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RWC as Neutral (3) -

Reliance Worldwide Corp confirmed the strong September quarter revenue growth performance has continued into October. The US's revenue growth of 22% in the first quarter prompts UBS to upgrade its second-quarter revenue growth forecast to 21% from 11% previously.

The company remains very cautious on the outlook with its commentary citing abnormal conditions and the need for more government stimulus to prevent growth from slowing.

Rising covid-19 cases and restrictions in Europe have the broker concerned and may weigh on earnings near term since EMEA accounts for circa 37% of Reliance Worldwide's operating income of which 60% is the UK and 15% is continental Europe.

UBS retains its Neutral rating with the target price increasing to $4.20 from $4.10.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $0.09
If RWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.36, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SCP as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett has undertaken an in-depth analysis of the Australian REIT sector, which suggests asset values will recover more strongly than the broker previously expected.

The broker anticipates the shape of the recovery can be best described as the letter K, as some asset classes have strong capital growth prospects versus others that are in decline, and the chasm is widening.

The analysts move to a more positive stance on the sector, which sees the REITs that Ord Minnett covers trading about -10% on average below the broker’s revised valuations.

Ord Minnett forecast an average uplift in book values of 30% for industrial REITs, 25% for the long weighted average lease expiry (WALE) segment, and 15% for convenience retail and self-storage assets.

The broker’s review of $7bn of sales suggests transaction markets are strong (excluding retail malls), high-quality assets are ‘well bid’ and return spreads are elevated, despite lower assumed long-term growth.

As a result of the review by Ord Minnett, the rating for Shopping Centres Australasia is increased to Accumulate from Hold and the target price is increased to $2.55 from $2.30.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.29
If SCP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SLK as Buy (1) -

SeaLink Travel Group noted at the AGM that “significant pent up demand for domestic tourism is driving good performance” which suggests to Ord Minnett that the KI, North Stradbroke and Fraser Island businesses are performing well.

The broker updates estimates to account for a strong first quarter result, recent contracts wins and renewals and an improving domestic tourism outlook.

Hence the broker's EPS estimates have increased by 9% in FY21 and 10% in FY22.

In the analyst's view, the timing of the TSG acquisition could not have been better with the business bringing annuity style revenue at a time when it was most needed.

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $6.95 from $6.08.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $6.01 Difference: $0.94
If SLK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VCX as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett has undertaken an in-depth analysis of the Australian REIT sector, which suggests asset values will recover more strongly than the broker previously expected.

The broker anticipates the shape of the recovery can be best described as the letter K, as some asset classes have strong capital growth prospects versus others that are in decline, and the chasm is widening.

The analysts move to a more positive stance on the sector, which sees the REITs that Ord Minnett covers trading about -10% on average below the broker’s  revised valuations.

Ord Minnett forecast an average uplift in book values of 30% for industrial REITs, 25% for the long weighted average lease expiry (WALE) segment, and 15% for convenience retail and self-storage assets.

The broker’s review of $7bn of sales suggests transaction markets are strong (excluding retail malls), high-quality assets are ‘well bid’ and return spreads are elevated, despite lower assumed long-term growth.

As a result of the review by Ord Minnett, the rating for Vicinity Centres is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target price is increased to $1.70 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.46
If VCX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.48, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources