Australian Broker Call
July 20, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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Last Updated: 03:48 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
ANZ - | ANZ BANKING GROUP | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
BHP - | BHP BILLITON | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
NAB - | NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
PRU - | PERSEUS MINING | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley | ||
WBC - | WESTPAC BANKING | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
Deutsche Bank rates ALL as Buy (1) -
NSW unit sales were stronger than Deutsche Bank expected in the June quarter, up 12%. Aristocrat's unit sales were up 7%.
The company's market share has moderated to 60.4% from 63.3% but the broker notes this is a slightly lower share of a larger market. This is construed as a positive outcome and supportive of earnings forecasts.
Buy rating maintained. Target is $27.40.
Target price is $27.40 Current Price is $20.97 Difference: $6.43
If ALL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.43, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.3, implying annual growth of 54.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 111.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.3, implying annual growth of 17.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates ANZ as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
APRA has finalised its capital requirements which means the target CET1 ratios were lifted 150 basis points for the major banks and 50 basis points for the regional banks. The new capital targets come into effect by January 2020.
Citi observes banks are likely to achieve this through organic capital generation and the finalisation of these capital adequacy requirements removes a significant overhang for the sector.
Basel 4 remains on the agenda if global agreement can be reached but the APRA moves were designed not to wait. If agreement is reached Citi continues to expect mortgage risk weights will be affected, although this is unlikely to be cumulative to this announcement.
ANZ's rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target is raised to $31.50 from $31.00.
Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $29.41 Difference: $2.09
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.76, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 165.00 cents and EPS of 226.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 229.2, implying annual growth of 13.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 170.00 cents and EPS of 232.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 235.5, implying annual growth of 2.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ANZ as Hold (3) -
APRA has finalised its capital requirements which means the target CET1 ratios were lifted 150 basis points for the major banks and 50 basis points for the regional banks. The new capital targets come into effect by January 2020.
Deutsche Bank considers the announcement a benign, yet sensible, outcome which recognises that only small amounts of additional capital are required to achieve the unquestionably strong position for the major banks.
As the sector is now likely to enjoy some "clear air" on capital, the broker believes the majors appear reasonable value despite modest growth prospects. Hold rating maintained. Target is raised to $30.60 from $30.00.
Target price is $30.60 Current Price is $29.41 Difference: $1.19
If ANZ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.76, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 225.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 229.2, implying annual growth of 13.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 235.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 235.5, implying annual growth of 2.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Overweight (1) -
APRA has finalised its capital requirements which means the target CET1 ratios were lifted 150 basis points for the major banks and 50 basis points for the regional banks. The new capital targets come into effect by January 2020.
Morgan Stanley believes the tail risk relating to bank capital adequacy requirements has now been removed but remains concerned about structural and cyclical headwinds.
The broker suspects ANZ will reach the target in the second half of FY17 and retains an Overweight rating. Target is raised to $30.00 from $28.90. Sector view is In-Line.
Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $29.41 Difference: $0.59
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.76, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 226.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 229.2, implying annual growth of 13.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 165.00 cents and EPS of 238.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 235.5, implying annual growth of 2.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates ANZ as Hold (3) -
APRA has publicly communicated its view on "unquestionably strong" and two sentences stand out from stockbroker Morgan's response post the event: "Impact is broadly in line with our expectations" and "We were not expecting such a definitive announcement from APRA at this stage".
Bottom line is this is a positive for the sector and no more capital raisings should be necessary. The banks are expected to meet the new CET1 ratio of 10.5% benchmark by 1 January 2020.
Westpac remains Morgans' preferred exposure in the sector. Add rating retained. Price target unchanged at $30.
Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $29.41 Difference: $0.59
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.76, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 227.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 229.2, implying annual growth of 13.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 226.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 235.5, implying annual growth of 2.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates AWE as Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank is the latest to update oil price forecasts and projections. Short term, Brent is seen recovering to US$56/bbl by end 2017. However, oil markets are forecast to return to over-supply in 2018.
In the long-term, new production is expected to be required from higher-cost regions, which is why Deutsche Bank sees oil prices at US$65/bbl (real) by 2020.
Price target for AWE Ltd has fallen to $0.48 (from $0.50). Hold rating retained. Earnings estimates lowered.
Target price is $0.48 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.005
If AWE meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.52, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates BEN as Sell (5) -
APRA has finalised its capital requirements which means the target CET1 ratios were lifted 150 basis points for the major banks and 50 basis points for the regional banks. The new capital targets come into effect by January 2020.
Basel 4 is still on the agenda, if global agreement can be reached. Citi continues to expect mortgage risk weights will be affected but unlikely to be cumulative to this APRA announcement.
BEN's IRB accreditation process looms and Citi believes this is unlikely to alleviate any capital pressures ahead of the January 2020 deadline.
BEN's Sell rating and $11.75 price target are unchanged.
Target price is $11.75 Current Price is $11.31 Difference: $0.44
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.12, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 83.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.6, implying annual growth of -11.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 90.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.2, implying annual growth of 5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates BEN as Equal-weight (3) -
APRA has finalised its capital requirements which means the target CET1 ratios were lifted 150 basis points for the major banks and 50 basis points for the regional banks. The new capital targets come into effect by January 2020.
To comply with APRA's new rules, Morgan Stanley estimates BEN may need around 50 basis points or $200m in extra CET1 capital, or around -4% share count dilution, if it remains a standardised bank. If it becomes an advanced bank, it is likely to have a -10-30 basis points shortfall.
The target is $11.00. Equal-wait rating retained. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $11.31 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.12, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.6, implying annual growth of -11.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.2, implying annual growth of 5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates BHP as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
Citi downgrades to Neutral from Buy, because of share price appreciation and a reduction in the target price to $25.50 from $26.50.
This target reduction has been driven by FY18 earnings downgrades because of lower production and a reduction in net present value from a lower long-term oil price estimate.
While the company is set to reverse a two-year trend of declining production in FY18 it is still facing price headwinds and the broker prefers Rio Tinto ((RIO)).
Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $24.83 Difference: $0.67
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.43, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 96.71 cents and EPS of 168.39 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 104.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 75.52 cents and EPS of 127.19 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.0, implying annual growth of -11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates BHP as Neutral (3) -
FY17 reduction was largely in line with Credit Suisse estimates. FY18 guidance was also largely in line outside of the softer US onshore forecasts, lower thermal coal guidance and softer copper from the Olympic Dam maintenance program.
Credit Suisse forecasts FY17 underlying net profit of around US$6.9bn. Neutral rating and $26.50 target retained.
Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $24.83 Difference: $1.67
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.43, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 98.30 cents and EPS of 170.91 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 104.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 98.86 cents and EPS of 196.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.0, implying annual growth of -11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates BHP as Buy (1) -
The company finished FY17 with a 15% lift quarter on quarter in copper equivalent production. This was driven by a rebound at both Escondida and Pilbara. Metallurgical coal production was down -16% because of the impact of Cyclone Debbie.
Guidance for FY18 was broadly in line with Deutsche Bank's prior forecasts and implies a 7% lift in copper equivalent production. Deutsche Bank retains a Buy rating and $27.50 target.
Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $24.83 Difference: $2.67
If BHP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.43, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 98.04 cents and EPS of 165.61 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 104.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 76.84 cents and EPS of 128.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.0, implying annual growth of -11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -
BHP's June Q production was in line with the broker's forecast and guidance was met for iron ore, oil and met coal. Copper fell short due to the strike at Escondida and thermal coal fell short due to Debbie.
FY18 growth forecasts also meet expectations but the broker notes achieving the iron ore target will require govt approval for an expansion at Port Hedland. Outperform and $29.00 target retained.
Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $24.83 Difference: $4.17
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.43, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 112.61 cents and EPS of 180.18 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 104.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 63.59 cents and EPS of 105.86 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.0, implying annual growth of -11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -
June quarter production was in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates as is overall guidance for FY18. The broker expects investors will increasingly focus on the excess cash flow and the potential to drive added value.
Morgan Stanley believes fears that excess capital could be directed to risky growth avenues will prove unfounded and capital returns and higher dividend payments are likely to feature more prominently.
Overweight rating, Attractive sector view retained. Target is $29.75.
Target price is $29.75 Current Price is $24.83 Difference: $4.92
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.43, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 121.89 cents and EPS of 178.86 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 104.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 95.39 cents and EPS of 136.46 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.0, implying annual growth of -11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -
June quarter production was in line with Ord Minnett's view. The highlight was a 14% lift in Pilbara shipments with an annualised rate of 285mtpa.
Guidance for iron ore and copper was strong and petroleum weak. The company has downgraded US onshore FY18 guidance. Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and $25 target.
Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $24.83 Difference: $0.17
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.43, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 103.34 cents and EPS of 145.73 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 104.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 96.71 cents and EPS of 161.63 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.0, implying annual growth of -11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates BHP as Buy (1) -
FY17 production was in line with expectations while FY18 guidance was lower than UBS expected. The broker forecasts FY17 earnings of US$7.2bn with a final dividend of US48c.
Looking forward UBS foresees further asset disposals such as parts of US shale, Cerro Colarado and the Jansen stake, offering new opportunities to lift shareholder returns. Buy and $28 target retained.
Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $24.83 Difference: $3.17
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.43, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 116.59 cents and EPS of 180.18 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 104.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 108.64 cents and EPS of 182.83 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.0, implying annual growth of -11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates BOQ as Buy (1) -
APRA has finalised its capital requirements which means the target CET1 ratios were lifted 150 basis points for the major banks and 50 basis points for the regional banks. The new capital targets come into effect by January 2020.
Basel 4 is still on the agenda, if global agreement can be reached. Citi continues to expect mortgage risk weights will be affected but unlikely to be cumulative to this APRA announcement.
Buy rating and $13.25 target retained.
Target price is $13.25 Current Price is $12.06 Difference: $1.19
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.68, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in August.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 90.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.0, implying annual growth of 4.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 80.00 cents and EPS of 96.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.8, implying annual growth of 3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates BOQ as Hold (3) -
APRA has finalised its capital requirements which means the target CET1 ratios were lifted 150 basis points for the major banks and 50 basis points for the regional banks. The new capital targets come into effect by January 2020.
Regional banks minimum CET1 ratio will be 7.5% from January 1, 2020.
Deutsche Bank does not envisage any of the banks under coverage facing difficulty in achieving these ratios over the timeframe. Hold rating retained. Target rises to $11.70 from $11.60.
Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $12.06 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.68, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in August.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 88.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.0, implying annual growth of 4.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 92.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.8, implying annual growth of 3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -
APRA has finalised its capital requirements which means the target CET1 ratios were lifted 150 basis points for the major banks and 50 basis points for the regional banks. The new capital targets come into effect by January 2020.
Basel 4 is still on the agenda, if global agreement can be reached. Citi continues to expect mortgage risk weights will be affected but unlikely to be cumulative to this APRA announcement.
Sell rating and $75 price target have been retained.
Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $83.81 Difference: minus $8.81 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $80.93, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 421.00 cents and EPS of 548.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 557.1, implying annual growth of 0.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 424.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 421.00 cents and EPS of 561.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 570.9, implying annual growth of 2.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 430.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CBA as Neutral (3) -
Following the APRA announcement Credit Suisse upgrades CBA estimates by 1% for FY19 to reflect the adoption of a buy-back throughout the forecast period from the second half of FY18.
APRA has finalised its capital requirements which means the target CET1 ratios were lifted 150 basis points for the major banks and 50 basis points for the regional banks. The new capital targets come into effect by January 2020.
The broker considers the outcome of the statement benign, providing substantial clarity around a long-anticipated major capital reform. Sector valuations appear fair in absolute terms and inexpensive relative to the market, while any consensus upgrades are expected to be modest.
The Neutral rating and $89 target are unchanged.
Target price is $89.00 Current Price is $83.81 Difference: $5.19
If CBA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $80.93, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 423.00 cents and EPS of 575.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 557.1, implying annual growth of 0.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 424.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 435.00 cents and EPS of 597.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 570.9, implying annual growth of 2.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 430.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates CBA as Hold (3) -
APRA has finalised its capital requirements which means the target CET1 ratios were lifted 150 basis points for the major banks and 50 basis points for the regional banks. The new capital targets come into effect by January 2020.
Deutsche Bank considers the announcement a benign, yet sensible, outcome which recognises that only small amounts of additional capital are required to achieve the unquestionably strong position for the major banks.
As the sector is now likely to enjoy some "clear air" on capital, the broker believes the majors appear reasonable value despite modest growth prospects. Hold rating retained. Target rises to $83.40 from $80.80.
Target price is $83.40 Current Price is $83.81 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $80.93, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 424.00 cents and EPS of 550.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 557.1, implying annual growth of 0.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 424.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 440.00 cents and EPS of 569.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 570.9, implying annual growth of 2.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 430.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -
APRA has finalised its capital requirements which means the target CET1 ratios were lifted 150 basis points for the major banks and 50 basis points for the regional banks. The new capital targets come into effect by January 2020.
Morgan Stanley believes the tail risk relating to bank capital adequacy requirements has now been removed but remains concerned about structural and cyclical headwinds.
Underweight. Target is raised to $72 from $68. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $83.81 Difference: minus $11.81 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $80.93, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 428.00 cents and EPS of 556.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 557.1, implying annual growth of 0.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 424.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 430.00 cents and EPS of 558.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 570.9, implying annual growth of 2.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 430.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates CBA as Add (1) -
APRA has publicly communicated its view on "unquestionably strong" and two sentences stand out from stockbroker Morgan's response post the event: "Impact is broadly in line with our expectations" and "We were not expecting such a definitive announcement from APRA at this stage".
Bottom line is this is a positive for the sector and no more capital raisings should be necessary. The banks are expected to meet the new CET1 ratio of 10.5% benchmark by 1 January 2020.
Westpac remains Morgans' preferred exposure in the sector. Add rating retained. Price target unchanged at $87.50.
Target price is $87.50 Current Price is $83.81 Difference: $3.69
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $80.93, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 422.00 cents and EPS of 568.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 557.1, implying annual growth of 0.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 424.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 424.00 cents and EPS of 601.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 570.9, implying annual growth of 2.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 430.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CBA as Neutral (3) -
APRA has finalised its capital requirements which means the target CET1 ratios were lifted 150 basis points for the major banks and 50 basis points for the regional banks. The new capital targets come into effect by January 2020.
UBS observes the major banks will need to have CET1 ratios of at least 10.5% and expects the ratios will settle around 10.75-11%. APRA will release a discussion paper on the proposed changes of the finalising of Basel 4 later this year.
UBS has not changed its outlook for the major banks and considers the statement less severe than both the market and the banks had anticipated.
The broker suspects CBA may look to place a discount on its dividend reinvestment plan to accelerate capital generation. Underwriting the DRP or other forms of larger capital raising are considered less likely.
Neutral rating and $83 target retained.
Target price is $83.00 Current Price is $83.81 Difference: minus $0.81 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $80.93, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 424.00 cents and EPS of 552.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 557.1, implying annual growth of 0.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 424.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 430.00 cents and EPS of 558.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 570.9, implying annual growth of 2.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 430.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CIM as Resume Coverage with Hold (3) -
In the broker's view, first half results were strong, with net profit up 22% and guidance for 2017 net profit maintained at $640-700m. Work in hand increased 3.6%, driven by the construction business.
Following a period of research restrictions, Ord Minnett moves to a Hold rating and $43.55 target. The broker finds the current valuation relatively expensive and does not see enough potential upside to justify a more positive view on the stock.
Target price is $43.55 Current Price is $41.03 Difference: $2.52
If CIM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $35.21, suggesting downside of -14.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 125.00 cents and EPS of 207.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 196.2, implying annual growth of 11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 139.00 cents and EPS of 231.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 212.4, implying annual growth of 8.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates CTX as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank is the latest to update oil price forecasts and projections. Short term, Brent is seen recovering to US$56/bbl by end 2017. However, oil markets are forecast to return to over-supply in 2018.
In the long-term, new production is expected to be required from higher-cost regions, which is why Deutsche Bank sees oil prices at US$65/bbl (real) by 2020.
Price target for Caltex has fallen to $35.30 (from $35.40). Buy rating retained.
Target price is $35.30 Current Price is $31.50 Difference: $3.8
If CTX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.11, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 EPS of 231.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.3, implying annual growth of -2.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 258.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 221.9, implying annual growth of -1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 113.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates KAR as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank is the latest to update oil price forecasts and projections. Short term, Brent is seen recovering to US$56/bbl by end 2017. However, oil markets are forecast to return to over-supply in 2018.
In the long-term, new production is expected to be required from higher-cost regions, which is why Deutsche Bank sees oil prices at US$65/bbl (real) by 2020.
Price target for Karoon Gas has remained unchanged at $2.30. Buy rating retained. Earnings estimates lowered.
Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $1.075
If KAR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 58.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -13.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -7.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates MQG as Neutral (3) -
Activity trends in the June quarter appear to be net positive, Credit Suisse observes.
If the strong June quarter investment banking trends can persist, all else being equal, the broker suspects this could eventually underpin an upgrade to the bank's near-term earnings guidance.
The broker retains a Neutral rating. Target is $100.
Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $87.13 Difference: $12.87
If MQG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $88.29, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 475.00 cents and EPS of 672.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 647.6, implying annual growth of -1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 471.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 490.00 cents and EPS of 688.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 657.4, implying annual growth of 1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 473.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates NAB as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
APRA has finalised its capital requirements which means the target CET1 ratios were lifted 150 basis points for the major banks and 50 basis points for the regional banks. The new capital targets come into effect by January 2020.
Basel 4 is still on the agenda, if global agreement can be reached. Citi continues to expect mortgage risk weights will be affected but unlikely to be cumulative to this APRA announcement.
Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell and the target is raised to $31.00 from $30.50.
Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $30.30 Difference: $0.7
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $31.68, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 240.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.3, implying annual growth of -0.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 195.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 241.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.3, implying annual growth of 0.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates NAB as Buy (1) -
APRA has finalised its capital requirements which means the target CET1 ratios were lifted 150 basis points for the major banks and 50 basis points for the regional banks. The new capital targets come into effect by January 2020.
Deutsche Bank considers the announcement a benign, yet sensible, outcome which recognises that only small amounts of additional capital are required to achieve the unquestionably strong position for the major banks.
As the sector is now likely to enjoy some "clear air" on capital, the broker believes the majors appear reasonable value despite modest growth prospects. Buy rating retained. Target is raised to $33.20 from $32.40.
Target price is $33.20 Current Price is $30.30 Difference: $2.9
If NAB meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $31.68, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 243.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.3, implying annual growth of -0.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 195.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 199.00 cents and EPS of 246.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.3, implying annual growth of 0.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Underweight (5) -
APRA has finalised its capital requirements which means the target CET1 ratios were lifted 150 basis points for the major banks and 50 basis points for the regional banks. The new capital targets come into effect by January 2020.
Morgan Stanley believes the tail risk relating to bank capital adequacy requirements has now been removed but remains concerned about structural and cyclical headwinds.
The broker expects NAB will not reach a target of 10.5% in CET1 until the first half of FY19 and will not grow its dividend until FY21.
Underweight rating retained. Industry view is In-Line. Target is raised to $27.70 from $27.60.
Target price is $27.70 Current Price is $30.30 Difference: minus $2.6 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $31.68, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 241.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.3, implying annual growth of -0.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 195.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 242.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.3, implying annual growth of 0.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates NAB as Add (1) -
APRA has publicly communicated its view on "unquestionably strong" and two sentences stand out from stockbroker Morgan's response post the event: "Impact is broadly in line with our expectations" and "We were not expecting such a definitive announcement from APRA at this stage".
Bottom line is this is a positive for the sector and no more capital raisings should be necessary. The banks are expected to meet the new CET1 ratio of 10.5% benchmark by 1 January 2020.
Westpac remains Morgans' preferred exposure in the sector. Add rating retained. Price target unchanged at $35.
Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $30.30 Difference: $4.7
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $31.68, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 251.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.3, implying annual growth of -0.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 195.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 257.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.3, implying annual growth of 0.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates NCK as Neutral (3) -
The outlook is getting tougher for Nick Scali, suggest analysts at Citi. The analysts continue to see potential for Nick Scali to continue outperforming the furniture category in Australia, but headwinds are building from a slowing housing cycle combined with weak consumer conditions.
Citi expects earnings momentum to slow in FY18. Given a strong balance sheet, the analysts speculate whether management might be eyeing an acquisition? Target price of $6.45 and Neutral rating retained.
Note current forecasts do not assume any growth in FY18 against a strong performance in FY17.
Target price is $6.45 Current Price is $6.27 Difference: $0.18
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 45.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 45.10 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates NXT as Buy (1) -
The company has acquired a 14.1% strategic interest in Asia-Pacific Data Centres ((AJD)), deploying $29m in capital. AJD is currently subject to a proposal by 360 Capital ((TGP)) to replace its responsible entity and pursue a more active capital management strategy.
Deutsche Bank believes the investment by NextDC is an attempt to preserve its current position in terms of landlord/tenant relations and prevent a more aggressive entrant into the Australian data centre industry.
The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $4.60 from $4.10.
Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $0.33
If NXT meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 66.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.0, implying annual growth of -20.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 83.7. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NXT as Outperform (1) -
NextDC has acquired a 14.1% blocking stake in data centre REIT Asia Pacific Data Centre ((AJD)) in order to head off an attempt by 360 Capital Group ((TGP)) to remove the AJD responsible entity to be replaced with its own. NextDC rents space from AJD, which it spun off a while back.
The broker believes the risk to those leases is relatively low whatever the outcome and sees any share price weakness as a buying opportunity. Outperform and $4.30 target retained.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $0.03
If NXT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 66.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.0, implying annual growth of -20.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 83.7. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates NXT as Buy (1) -
The company has acquired a 14.1% stake in Asia-Pacific Data Centre ((AJD)) for $29m. This is the vehicle that holds three of the company's data centres.
The investment is intended to support the AJD board position, rejecting the 360 capital ((TGP)) proposal at next week's extraordinary general meeting. Buy rating and $5.20 target retained.
Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $0.93
If NXT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 66.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.0, implying annual growth of -20.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 83.7. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates ORE as Neutral (3) -
Production in the June quarter proved slightly better than expected, with the analysts noting higher costs were offset by an improvement in realised prices.
Citi maintains the real challenge is for the company to prove it can produce at capacity. There still is risk attached to this premise and therefore the analysts retain their Neutral rating, in combination with a $3.90 price target.
Also, the analysts expect product prices to moderate to US$10,300/t in FY19 as supply increases to cool spot prices. Minor changes have been made to forecasts.
Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: $0.56
If ORE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of 98.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ORE as Buy (1) -
June quarter production was ahead of recently revised guidance while operating costs were in line with Deutsche Bank's forecasts.
Nevertheless, the result was overshadowed by further uncertainty regarding brine inventory and a lack of data to track progress made over the last five months. The anticipated seasonal increase in evaporation rates is required for the company to deliver its planned ramp up in the first half.
Deutsche Bank considers the current weakness a buying opportunity and retains a Buy rating. Target is $4.30.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: $0.96
If ORE meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.57 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of 98.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ORE as Neutral (3) -
A mixed June Q production result for Orocobre featured a beat on guidance previously reduced due to production issues and strong lithium prices offset by higher costs due to said issues. The cash position remains in line.
Pond management -- the source of the problem -- remains key, the broker notes, and questions remain unanswered. A survey is being conducted in order to provide new guidance but will not be completed until October, meaning the August earnings result could feature another guidance shift, the broker warns.
Neutral and $3.17 target retained.
Target price is $3.17 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of 98.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ORE as Buy (1) -
Olaroz lithium carbonate production was down -9% in the June quarter, attributed to undesirable weather conditions which reduced evaporation rates and made soda ash transport more difficult. Costs lifted 20% quarter on quarter.
UBS considers the resolution of the evaporation pond modelling a short term issue and looks for the company to raise capacity of its purification circuit and produce a greater share of battery grade product. Buy rating and $5.00 target.
Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: $1.66
If ORE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of 98.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ORG as Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank is the latest to update oil price forecasts and projections. Short term, Brent is seen recovering to US$56/bbl by end 2017. However, oil markets are forecast to return to over-supply in 2018.
In the long-term, new production is expected to be required from higher-cost regions, which is why Deutsche Bank sees oil prices at US$65/bbl (real) by 2020.
Price target for Origin Energy has fallen to $6.25 (from $6.40). Hold rating retained.
Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $7.19 Difference: minus $0.94 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.56, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 26.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.8, implying annual growth of 208.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates OSH as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank is the latest to update oil price forecasts and projections. Short term, Brent is seen recovering to US$56/bbl by end 2017. However, oil markets are forecast to return to over-supply in 2018.
In the long-term, new production is expected to be required from higher-cost regions, which is why Deutsche Bank sees oil prices at US$65/bbl (real) by 2020.
Price target for Oil Search has fallen to $7.80 (from $8). Buy rating retained.
Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $6.60 Difference: $1.2
If OSH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.49, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 EPS of 9.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 21.46 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of 29.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates OSH as Outperform (1) -
Oil Search's June Q production met the broker's forecast. Sales fell short but lower costs offset weaker revenues. The PNG production result was exceptional, the broker suggests, given planned outages in the period.
Expansion expectations remain intact and further clarity should be provided once the PNG election is out of the way. Further de-risking of the project should unlock significant value, the broker notes, hence Oil Search remains the broker's top pick in the space.
Outperform and $7.00 target retained.
Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.60 Difference: $0.4
If OSH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.49, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 6.09 cents and EPS of 15.37 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 3.98 cents and EPS of 9.94 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of 29.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates PRU as Neutral (3) -
June quarter production met Citi's expectations and the analysts are left wondering: now that we've experienced two consecutive quarters of hitting company guidance, are we perhaps witnessing the start of a trend?
Citi has updated for gold and AUD forecasts, which lowers forecasts for FY18/19 earnings. In addition, some Edikan costs have slightly increased. Price target has remained unchanged at 36c. Neutral rating retained.
Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.08
If PRU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 54.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates PRU as Outperform (1) -
June quarter production was solid and FY17 guidance was achieved, Credit Suisse observes. Performance should now be sustained and reflect reduced reliance on low-grade, poor recovery stockpiles.
Outperform rating retained. Target is reduced to $0.80 from $0.85.
Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.52
If PRU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 186% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 54.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.67 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates PRU as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Production at Edikan in the June Q exceeded Macquarie's forecast but costs remain stubbornly high. Assuming Perseus can achieve its grade and throughput guidance, the broker believes costs will begin to decline in FY18.
The Sissingue project is now 61% complete. Target falls to 34c from 40c but the recent fall in share price has raised Macquarie's total shareholder return valuation to 21%, prompting an upgrade to Outperform.
Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.06
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 54.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates PRU as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -
Edikan is back on track and Morgan Stanley upgrades to Overweight from Equal-weight. The broker observes catalysts exist for three projects in FY18 and the company is fully funded with a US$200/oz all-in sustainable cost margin.
Production at Edikan increased 30% in the June half, after plant upgrades were completed and allowed better throughput. Higher grades and blending ore sources also contributed.
Target is $0.38. Industry view is Attractive.
Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.1
If PRU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 54.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates PRU as Neutral (3) -
The company delivered on its targeted costs at Edikan in the June quarter and production lifted. Hence, UBS questions why the stock is still trading at current levels.
The broker suspects that the market is underestimating the turnaround at Edikan and remains cautious about cash generation in the quarter. The merits of the Sissingue project are also probably being questioned.
With so many domestic choices for local investors, UBS suspects the re-rating may take longer than expected. Neutral rating retained. Target reduced to $0.30 from $0.31.
Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.02
If PRU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 54.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates STO as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank is the latest to update oil price forecasts and projections. Short term, Brent is seen recovering to US$56/bbl by end 2017. However, oil markets are forecast to return to over-supply in 2018.
In the long-term, new production is expected to be required from higher-cost regions, which is why Deutsche Bank sees oil prices at US$65/bbl (real) by 2020.
Price target for Santos has fallen to $4.25 (from $4.50). Buy rating retained.
Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $1.23
If STO meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.82, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 EPS of 16.96 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 20.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.0, implying annual growth of 40.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates SXY as Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank is the latest to update oil price forecasts and projections. Short term, Brent is seen recovering to US$56/bbl by end 2017. However, oil markets are forecast to return to over-supply in 2018.
In the long-term, new production is expected to be required from higher-cost regions, which is why Deutsche Bank sees oil prices at US$65/bbl (real) by 2020.
Price target for Senex Energy has fallen to $0.28 (from $0.30). Hold rating retained. Earnings estimates lowered.
Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If SXY meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.31, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 96.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates WBC as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
APRA has finalised its capital requirements which means the target CET1 ratios were lifted 150 basis points for the major banks and 50 basis points for the regional banks. The new capital targets come into effect by January 2020.
Basel 4 is still on the agenda, if global agreement can be reached. Citi continues to expect mortgage risk weights will be affected but unlikely to be cumulative to this APRA announcement.
Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell and the target lifted to $31.00 from $30.50.
Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $31.94 Difference: minus $0.94 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.59, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 234.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.3, implying annual growth of 5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 240.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.7, implying annual growth of 2.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates WBC as Buy (1) -
APRA has finalised its capital requirements which means the target CET1 ratios were lifted 150 basis points for the major banks and 50 basis points for the regional banks. The new capital targets come into effect by January 2020.
Deutsche Bank considers the announcement a benign, yet sensible, outcome which recognises that only small amounts of additional capital are required to achieve the unquestionably strong position for the major banks.
As the sector is now likely to enjoy some "clear air" on capital, the broker believes the majors appear reasonable value despite modest growth prospects. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $34.50 from $33.50.
Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $31.94 Difference: $2.56
If WBC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.59, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 233.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.3, implying annual growth of 5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 192.00 cents and EPS of 244.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.7, implying annual growth of 2.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -
APRA has finalised its capital requirements which means the target CET1 ratios were lifted 150 basis points for the major banks and 50 basis points for the regional banks. The new capital targets come into effect by January 2020.
Morgan Stanley believes the tail risk relating to bank capital adequacy requirements has now been removed but remains concerned about structural and cyclical headwinds.
Westpac is a beneficiary of re-pricing and has a lower credit risk profile, with the broker believing it offers a better risk/reward at current multiples.
Against this backdrop, the broker upgrades Westpac to Overweight from Equal-weight. Target is raised to $32.70 from $28.80. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $32.70 Current Price is $31.94 Difference: $0.76
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.59, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 233.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.3, implying annual growth of 5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 242.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.7, implying annual growth of 2.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates WBC as Add (1) -
APRA has publicly communicated its view on "unquestionably strong" and two sentences stand out from stockbroker Morgan's response post the event: "Impact is broadly in line with our expectations" and "We were not expecting such a definitive announcement from APRA at this stage".
Bottom line: this is a positive for the sector and no more capital raisings should be necessary. The banks are expected to meet the new CET1 ratio of 10.5% benchmark by 1 January 2020.
Westpac remains Morgans' preferred exposure in the sector. Add rating retained. Price target unchanged at $38.
Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $31.94 Difference: $6.06
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.59, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 248.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.3, implying annual growth of 5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 190.00 cents and EPS of 261.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.7, implying annual growth of 2.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates WPL as Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank is the latest to update oil price forecasts and projections. Short term, Brent is seen recovering to US$56/bbl by end 2017. However, oil markets are forecast to return to over-supply in 2018.
In the long-term, new production is expected to be required from higher-cost regions, which is why Deutsche Bank sees oil prices at US$65/bbl (real) by 2020.
Price target for Woodside has fallen to $27.60 (from $28). Hold rating retained.
Target price is $27.60 Current Price is $29.73 Difference: minus $2.13 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $30.47, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 EPS of 137.26 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 151.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 139.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 179.0, implying annual growth of 18.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 152.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
ALL - | ARISTOCRAT LEISURE | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $20.97 |
ANZ - | ANZ BANKING GROUP | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $29.41 |
Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $29.41 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $29.41 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $29.41 | ||
AWE - | AWE | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $0.48 |
BEN - | BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $11.31 |
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $11.31 | ||
BHP - | BHP BILLITON | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $24.83 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $24.83 | ||
Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $24.83 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $24.83 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $24.83 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $24.83 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $24.83 | ||
BOQ - | BANK OF QUEENSLAND | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $12.06 |
Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $12.06 | ||
CBA - | COMMBANK | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $83.81 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $83.81 | ||
Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $83.81 | ||
Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $83.81 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $83.81 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $83.81 | ||
CIM - | CIMIC GROUP | Resume Coverage with Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $41.03 |
CTX - | CALTEX AUSTRALIA | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $31.50 |
KAR - | KAROON GAS | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $1.23 |
MQG - | MACQUARIE GROUP | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $87.13 |
NAB - | NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $30.30 |
Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $30.30 | ||
Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $30.30 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $30.30 | ||
NCK - | NICK SCALI | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $6.27 |
NXT - | NEXTDC | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $4.27 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.27 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $4.27 | ||
ORE - | OROCOBRE | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.34 |
Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.34 | ||
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.34 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.34 | ||
ORG - | ORIGIN ENERGY | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $7.19 |
OSH - | OIL SEARCH | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $6.60 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.60 | ||
PRU - | PERSEUS MINING | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $0.28 |
Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.28 | ||
Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.28 | ||
Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $0.28 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $0.28 | ||
STO - | SANTOS | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.02 |
SXY - | SENEX ENERGY | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $0.28 |
WBC - | WESTPAC BANKING | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $31.94 |
Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $31.94 | ||
Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $31.94 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $31.94 | ||
WPL - | WOODSIDE PETROLEUM | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $29.73 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 27 |
3. Hold | 23 |
5. Sell | 4 |
Thursday 20 July 2017
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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
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This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
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should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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