Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AMP as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

With AMP continuing to target controllable costs of $690m in 2023, the company successfully lowered its full time equivalent by -11% throughout 2023. Much of this reduction occured later in the second half of the year, but should support the company's cost target.

While Citi's conviction in AMP is increasing, it remains sceptical on the company being able to achieve its full cost savings targets. The broker currently anticipates costs of $700m for the year, still a reduction on the $744m reported in 2023.

The rating increases to Buy from Neutral and the target price increases to $1.25 from 90 cents.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $0.18
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.09, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Equal-weight (3) -

Following FY23 results, Morgan Stanley notes AMP is starting to deliver on costs, revenue margins and capital management. Further share price upside is anticipated should management continue to deliver on its cost and revenue targets.

Compared to forecasts by the broker and consensus, underlying earnings (UNPAT) were beats of 8% and 6%, respectively, while profit was in line with consensus.

The broker highlights how well costs were managed in FY23 and the company remains committed to its -$120m cost-out target by FY25.

A 2cps interim dividend was declared, leaving $295m for new buybacks.

Equal-weight rating. The broker's target rises by 9.5% to $1.23 due to better revenue margins in wealth and the bank. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.06 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.09, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett saw AMP releasing FY23 numbers in line with expectations, though the underlying composition was different. The fair value estimate has fallen to $1.20 from $1.30, but AMP shares still represents value, comments the broker.

At the macro level, Ord Minnett believes sentiment overall is improving for the financial institution that has been under the pump, generating negative news headlines for such a long time.

The improvement is visible, among other things, through a stabilisation in advisor numbers, and will support management in constructing a better future (paraphrasing the sentiment expressed in today's update).

There will still be earnings headwinds from lower fee income, but improved funds inflows as investor sentiment improves should provide a positive offset.

Hold. Fair value estimate is now $1.20.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $0.13
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.09, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BMT as Buy (1) -

First half results from Beamtree Holdings disclosed revenue of $12.9m, representing 23% year-on-year uplift, and an operating loss of -$0.5m. Shaw and Partners points out the business continues to grow at more than 20%, with revenue growth expceeding cost growth.

The broker described working capital as the only surprise from the result, where a $1m delayed receipt impacted. The company retains a strong pipeline and management continues to pursue a $60m annnual recurring revenue target by end of 2026.

The Buy rating and target price of 70 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.48
If BMT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 218% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CAR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes CAR Group's Australian Media business, which sells digital display/banner advertisements, is underappreciated by the wider market, which considers the business mature.

Based on feedback from users of the new mediahouse suite of products, the broker feels management can leverage them in other geographies, with the US and Brazil offering the most upside.

There are multiple drivers for the overall group business, suggest the analysts, and a period of high revenue and earnings growth is anticipated. The target is increased to $40 from $30 largely due to upside for both the existing Media business and its offshore potential.

 Overweight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $33.37 Difference: $6.63
If CAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.02, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Citi lowers its target for CommBank to $82 from $84 following yesterday's 1H result. The analysts see little fundamental justification
for the bank's premium valuation and a Sell rating is maintained.

A summary of the broker's view in research released yesterday follows.

At first glance, CommBank's December-half earnings outpaced consensus but met Citi's forecasts.

Other metrics pleased: revenue rose on improved trading income, capital remained strong and the dividend rose, but Citi believes the outlook is worsening, observing deposit trends are not promising.

Net interest margins just missed forecasts as funding costs eroded lending margins, and deposit competition and switching proved challenging. Loan volumes weakened across the board, observed Citi.

All up, the broker believes earnings have yet to bottom, and puts the question: "how long can CBA sustain falling earnings and rising dividends?"

Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $114.07 Difference: minus $32.07 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.55, suggesting downside of -19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

CommBank's December-half result broadly met Macquarie's forecasts, although margins proved a miss on consensus forecasts due to continued deposit migration.

The broker observes the bank benefitted from rising interest rates thanks to its strong deposit franchise (enjoying better than market spreads) but expects customer migration to better yielding deposits later this year represents a risk.

Otherwise, the balance sheet remains strong with plenty of franking credits to go around.

Underperform rating and $88 target price retained.

Target price is $88.00 Current Price is $114.07 Difference: minus $26.07 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.55, suggesting downside of -19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley remains Underweight-rated on CommBank following 1H results given evidence of further margin headwinds and ongoing challenges in the mortgage market, along with high current trading multiples.

While key 1H metrics were broadly in line with expectations, the broker suggests neither operating trends nor commentary matched the recent pick-up in investor optimism about the outlook for retail banking.

The net interest margin (NIM) fell by -6bps half-on-half to 1.99% as headwinds from lending (-2bps) and funding (-7bps) offset hedging benefits (4bps), explain the analysts.

The interim dividend increased by 5cps to $2.15cps.

The target falls to $93 from $94. Sector view is In-Line. 

Target price is $93.00 Current Price is $114.07 Difference: minus $21.07 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.55, suggesting downside of -19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Downgrade to Reduce from Hold (5) -

Following CommBank's 1H results, Morgans could find nothing to justify recent share price gains. Given elevated multiples and a declining earnings outlook, the broker's rating is downgraded to Reduce from Hold.

While cash earnings were 2% ahead of the broker's expectation, and return on equity (ROE) was stable, revenue benefited from lower quality/more volatile Other Operating income. 

In an ongoing decline since peaking in the 1H of FY23, the net interest margin (NIM) again fell by -7bps in the 1H of FY24, highlights the analyst. Deposit pricing, competition and mix had a combined negative impact of -4bps on the NIM.

The interim dividend increased by 5cps to $2.15cps, driven by a 4% increase in the payout ratio, balanced against lower earnings, explains Morgans. The broker forecasts a 12-month total shareholder return (TSR) of -16%.

The target rises to $91.28 from $90.18.

Target price is $91.28 Current Price is $114.07 Difference: minus $22.79 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.55, suggesting downside of -19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Hold (3) -

Hold and $90 target retained with Ord Minnett emphasising the investment case for CommBank is not so much about a robust balance sheets or the slight retreat in H1 profits (-3%); it's all about the (over)valuation.

Margin headwinds are expected to persist in H2. With an expected payout ratio of 79%, Ord Minnett believes shareholders should expect to see a 2% increase in dividends this financial year.

Countering criticism elsewhere, the key strength for CBA is situated in the bank's strong emphasis on mortgages, argues the analyst, adding CommBank is the best-provisioned of the major banks in Australia.

Minor amendments only have been made to forecasts.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $114.07 Difference: minus $24.07 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.55, suggesting downside of -19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Following the release of first half results by CommBank, UBS has lowered cash earnings per share estimates by -0.7% -2.1% and -0.7% through to FY26. The broker's estimated net interest margins also decrease by -4, -4 and -3 basis points for the same period. 

Given ongoing cost inflation and IT spend, UBS's operating expenditure expectations increase. 

Given CommBank's share price has rallied 13% in the last three months, the broker sees the stock's valuation as stretched, underpinning a rating downgrade. The broker believes better value and upside can be found elsewhere.

The rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral while the target price of $105.00 is retained.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $114.07 Difference: minus $9.07 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.55, suggesting downside of -19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CPU as Buy (1) -

Following a further review of Computershare's 1H results, Citi raises its target to $30 from $29 and retains a Buy rating.

A summary of the broker's research released yesterday is as follows:

At first glance, Computershare's December-half EPS fell -1% shy of consensus although EBIT was a tiny beat. Management reiterated EPS guidance, which satisfied Citi, although margin income guidance was softened due to rate curve changes and lower balances.

All up, the broadly in line result was struck on rising recurring fee revenue, a rebound in employee share plan and issuer services transactional revenues (thanks mainly to large transaction given numbers were down).

Citi expects the sale of US Mortgage Services should be earnings neutral in FY24, management advising lost earnings will be offset by declining interest costs.

Computershare's in-line dividend was 20% franked - a surprise to Citi.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $26.29 Difference: $3.71
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.63, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CPU as Outperform (1) -

Computershare's December-half result appears to have met Macquarie's forecasts and management retained EPS guidance.

The broker observes that given margin income expectations and the tax rate forecast were downgraded, the retention of EPS guidance suggests the underlying business is recovering faster than expected.

The buyback was also unchanged and the broker expects more will be announced at the FY24 result, providing protection to the downside.

EPS forecasts fall -2.7% in FY24; -0.4% in FY25; and -1.1% in FY26.

Outperform rating and $28 target price retained.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $26.29 Difference: $1.71
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.63, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as No Rating (-1) -

Computershare's margin income (MI) beat forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus by 6% and 2%, respectively, and FY24 management EPS (MEPS) guidance of around 116cps was maintained.

However, the broker believes the result quality was a touch soft with EBIT ex MI missing the consensus forecast by -3%.

The balance sheet is strong, note the analysts, with US$2.5bn of acquisition capacity post-buybacks.The interim dividend beat the consensus estimate by 6%.

No target or rating are currently set by Morgan Stanley. The broker's FY24 MEPS forecast falls by around -3.5% based on the new MI guidance and slightly higher operating costs.

Current Price is $26.29. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $28.63, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CPU as Add (1) -

Morgans observes Computershare’s 1H EPS was broadly in line with the consensus forecast, while FY24 guidance was reaffirmed for Management EPS growth of 7.5% on the previous corresponding period.

Underlying results benefited from an improvement in overall event and transactional (E&T) activity, particularly Employee Share Plan and Stakeholder Relationship Management activity, explains the broker.

The Add rating is maintained and the target rises to $28.65 from $27.21 after the broker makes minimal near-term EPS forecast changes, but rolls-forward the valuation model. Long-term EBIT margin estimates were also increased.

Target price is $28.65 Current Price is $26.29 Difference: $2.36
If CPU meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.63, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CPU as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett saw Computershare releasing H1 financials that were broadly in line with expectations. Higher-margin income on client-owned cash balances remain the company's key growth driver, explains the broker.

Underneath, there were some divisional differences, but all in all, the broker's fair value estimate has risen by 50c to $25.50. Hold.

Ord Minnett is forecasting mid-single-digit increases in underlying EPS for the five years to FY28.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $26.29 Difference: minus $0.79 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.63, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CPU as Buy (1) -

Despite a first half result that slightly disappointed UBS, Computershare has reaffirmed its full year guidance, implying a better second half is ahead. 

The broker feels a better second half is likely, basing the assumption on core revenue recovery, half-on-half seasonality, and higher for longer cash rates. 

The broker does like Computershare's strong cash flow and balance sheet, notably at a time when accretive merger and acquisition opportunities are emerging.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $31.00 from $32.00.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $26.29 Difference: $4.71
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.63, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DHG as Buy (1) -

Domain Holdings Australia announced a strong first half update, Bell Potter suggests, highlighted by a 40% year on year increase in adjacents.

The key driver of the performance was a 20% increase in average revenue per listing generated by 15% contribution from price increase/depth penetration and favourable market mix, slightly offset by a -2% decline in total listings and some revenue deferrals.

Operating earnings increased 39%. While Bell Potter lowers its target to $3.90 from $3.95, the broker notes Domain is trading at a record discount to REA Group ((REA)) and a significant discount to its own average. Buy retained.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.52
If DHG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.49, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

Volume growth for Domain Holdings Australia has continued to underperform expectations, declining -2% year-on-year in the first half. UBS points out strong recovery has been reported in the Sydney and Melbourne markets, suggesting underperformance in other markets.

More positive is emerging yield growth, with the company's average yield per listing up 20%. UBS expects the company is able to deliver on a 12% compound annual growth rate through the cycle yield, but will remain watchful on volumes. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.75 from $3.80.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.37
If DHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.49, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DOW as Neutral (3) -

Downer EDI's December-half result sharply outpaced both consensus' and Macquarie's forecasts thanks to a strong performance from Utilities (it's back in the black); declining losses in power maintenance contracts, and a run-off of low margin water contracts.

Management also announced an extra $75m in extra cost savings and gearing improved, the broker suggesting Dow (which is under credit watch from Fitch) is keen to retain its BBB investment grade credit rating.

The broker observes the bulk of $80m in pegged run-rate savings are skewed to the June half and another $20m have been announced for the June half since.

FY24 EPS forecasts rose 4%; FY25 EPS forecasts rose 14%; and FY25 EPS forecasts rose 8%.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $4.90 from $4.10.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: $0.11
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DOW as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett points out FY24 was always going to be a transition year for Downer EDI, with inherent uncertainty around near-term earnings, and is unconcerned by 1H earnings falling below the broker's forecast.

The broker is content management is addressing underperforming businesses.

The company's shares rallied hard post-results, yet the analyst still believes the price undervalues the company. Management expects further earnings (EBITDA) margin improvement in the 2H after a rise to 2.5% in H1 from 2.2% a year ago.

An interim unfranked 6cps dividend was declared. Ord Minnett expects the full year payout will double from its forecast 16cps in FY24 by FY27.

The Accumulate rating and target price of $5.60 are retained.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: $0.81
If DOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DOW as Neutral (3) -

Downer EDI has reported 13% first half earnings growth to $151m, with the result underpinned by a return to profitability by its utilities segment.

Segmentally, facilities earnings were flat year-on-year, while transport fell -1%. Impacts were partially offset by the mobilisation of the Queensland trains manufacturing program, continued ramp up of which is expected into the second half. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.90 from $4.55.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: $0.11
If DOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DTL as Buy (1) -

Judging from UBS's early response, Data#3's H1 performance didn't quite meet expectations, be they the broker's or market consensus'.

FY24 guidance, however, appears to be bang in line with the broker's estimates on net profit and dividend.

No concrete guidance has been provided with management flagging peak sales in May/June, as per usual, as well as $2.5m in interest income where UBS had only penciled in $1.8m.

Buy. Target $8.20.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $9.78 Difference: minus $1.58 (current price is over target).
If DTL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DXS as Neutral (3) -

First half Office occupancy of 94.5% for Dexus, with like-for-like growth of 4.0%, continues to outperform the market, notes Citi, but incentives remain high at 29.4%. Global real estate investors also remain cautious of the sub-sector. 

The Industrial portfolio is benefiting from ongoing market momentum with 99% occupancy and 5.5% like-for-like income growth, explains the broker.

Overall capitalisation rates are 5.45% resulting in a -4.7% reduction in property values, notes Citi. 

The price target for Dexus remains at $8.20, alongside a Neutral rating. 

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $7.81 Difference: $0.39
If DXS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DXS as Outperform (1) -

Dexus' December-half Australian funds from operations per share outpaced Macquarie's forecasts by 13% due to one-off surrender payments and a first-half skew in funds: 57%/43%.

The office portfolio proved resilient, says the broker, and industrials enjoyed strong fundamentals.

The broker observes returns are under pressure, noting look-through gearing rose to 29.4% from 27.9% at June 30.

Macquarie believes the company will be able to fund its committed pipeline and remain within its target gearing range and estimates 37.5% will be the likely landing point.

The broker adds the -$725m of asset sales needed to return gearing to the target midpoints could be mildly accretive (assuming capital intensive assets will be sold).

AFFOps edges up 0.1% for FY24; eases -1.2% for FY25; and -1.7% for FY26. Neutral rating retained. Target price edges up to $7.38 from $7.36.

Target price is $7.38 Current Price is $7.81 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If DXS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DXS as Underweight (5) -

First half funds from operations (FFO) for Dexus slightly beat Morgan Stanley's forecast and management maintained FY24 adjusted FFO guidance of 48cpu.

The broker highlights good like-for-like net operating income (NOI) growth of 4%, but softening is expected in the 2H due to lower occupancy.

The REIT's funds under management (FUM) platform is now $41.3bn, down from $43.8bn six months ago, partly due to -$1.6bn of devaluations, explain the analysts.

The Underweight rating and $7.65 target are maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $7.81 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If DXS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DXS as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett spotted in-line key financial metrics in Dexus' H1 release, underpinning the broker's unchanged forecasts for FY24. Management's guidance is of the same ilk.

Ord Minnett's fair value calculation hasn't changed; $10.80. The broker observes while Dexus is diversifying, offices remain responsible for circa 60% of annual earnings.

With Dexus' office rents about 20% above effective market rents, the broker predicts lease expiries will lead to lower effective rents. Having said this, the market is seen as overly pessimistic on the outlook for offices.

Accumulate. Target price of $10.80.

Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $7.81 Difference: $2.99
If DXS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Outperform (1) -

Evolution Mining's December-half earnings (EBITDA) outpaced Macquarie's forecasts by 3%.

The dividend proved the big surprise, lapping the broker's forecast at 2c (the broker had assumed curtailment after the Northparkes deal), and net cash is in line as are revenue and net debt.

The company also published its annual Reserves (up 15%) and Resources update (gold resources rose 8% and copper resources more than doubled thanks to Northparkes).

EPS forecasts are steady in FY24; and rise 1% to 3% thereafter to reflect modest grade improvements following the Reserves and Resources update.

Outperform rating and $3.80 target price retained.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.81
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Equal-weight (3) -

Evolution Mining's 1H earnings (EBITDA) beat the consensus estimate by 5% and were in line with Morgan Stanley's forecast. Higher-than-expected depreciation resulted in profit misses against forecasts by consensus and the broker of -4% and -18%, respectively.

The interim dividend of 2cps was in line with the consensus expectation.

The target falls to $3.35 from $3.55 after allowing for the 1H results and adjustments to 2H production estimates due to plant shutdowns for maintenance at Cowal, Ernest Henry and Northparkes. Equal-weight. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.36
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Accumulate (2) -

Evolution Mining's 1H result was broadly in line with Ord Minnett's expectations. Underlying earnings (EBITDA) met the consensus forecast and exceeded the broker's estimate by 4%, while profit was a slight miss.

Given upcoming capital requirements and a stretched balance sheet, Ord Minnett had forecast no interim dividend, but was surprised by the 2cps payout. However, near-term cash flows are expected to significantly improve.

Largely because of the Northparkes acquisition, resources and reserves increased by 8% and 15%, respectively, for contained gold, while contained copper resources and reserves jumped by 134% and 100%, respectively.

The $3.40 target and Accumulate rating are unchanged.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.41
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Buy (1) -

Evolution Mining has reported first half earnings of $573m and underlying net profits of $158m, both broadly in line with UBS's expectations. Full year guidance of 789,000 ounces, with a 5% leeway either side, is retained.

The broker is already anticipating attractive free cash flow yield over FY25. According to the broker, despite a steady rebuild period ahead, the company has valuation support. 

Delivering on production, building on the existing cash flow story, and updating plans for Northparkes could all prove catalysts for the stock, says UBS.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.50 from $3.55.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.51
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FBU as Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform (5) -

Fletcher Building's December-half earnings (EBIT) pre-significant items missed consensus' forecasts by -16% and Macquarie's by -12%.

Revenue outpaced consensus by 5% and Macquarie by 10% but rising product claim issues scarpered the results.

Management announced six measures to shore up the balance sheet ahead of product claims and legacy contract outcomes, one being the suspension of the December-half dividend.

Other measures included the exit from Tradelink, a lowering of base capital expenditure, cutting of growth capital expenditure for FY24 and FY25; and moves to strengthen liquidity.

The Iplex pipes recall recommendation is the main product claim in play (a decision is expected by the end of March) but the broker observes a new Fletcher Insulation Australia product claim was included in the notes (albeit with no provisions). No updates were provided on the silicosis injury provision, says the broker.

Fletcher's CEO has announced his retirement and the Chair will step down as part of a board renewal.

EPS forecasts fall -23% in FY24; -29% in FY25; and -33% in FY26.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Outperform. Target price slumps to NZ$3.46 from NZ$6.03.

Current Price is $3.38. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 43.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FBU as Equal-weight (3) -

Fletcher Building's 1H earnings missed the consensus estimate by -15%, and Morgan Stanley notes FY24 guidance implies an around -12% downgrade to the consensus earnings expectation.

Adjusted earnings (EBIT) in the Building Products division were down -30% on the previous corresponding period, due to a weaker market backdrop, explains the broker. This outcome compared to forecasts by the broker and consensus for falls of -19% and -14%, respectively,.

As leverage is at the top of management's target range, the interim dividend was withheld, explain the analysts. It's felt more pain is to come as the business is beholden to softer construction data.

Morgan Stanley's target drops to $3.67 from $5.23 and the Equal-weight rating is maintained.  Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $3.67 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.29
If FBU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 43.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

In an initial response to Goodman Group's first half result, Citi notes a solid result from the company, with operating profit of $1,127.4m reflecting 29% year-on-year growth, and operating earnings per share of 59.2 cents, up 28% year-on-year.

The company is now guiding to full year operating earnings per share growth of 11%, having previously expected 9% growth. Citi believes this upgrade reflects Goodman Group's growth story, and that investors will respond positively.

The Buy rating and target price of $25.50 are retained.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $26.60 Difference: minus $1.1 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.90, suggesting downside of -16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNC as Buy (1) -

GrainCorp's AGM revealed FY24 earnings and profit guidance well below Bell Potter. Ongoing difficult trading conditions in the Canadian JV and tighter north eastern acreage marketing returns look the main shortfall relative to expectations.

Australian grain premiums relative to US grain have contracted from the highs seen at the commencement of the winter harvest.

The broker continues to see valuation as undemanding, noting opening FY24 earnings guidance is 15% higher than opening FY21 guidance despite a forecast -30% lower throughput level.

This underlying business improvement, along with balance sheet improvement, is yet to be reflected in GrainCorp’s trading multiple, says Bell Potter. Target falls to $9.30 from $9.50, Buy retained.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $2.1
If GNC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.66, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

GrainCorp's management has sharply downgraded guidance, advising the company's FY24 results to date are lagging expectations.

Macquarie observes the new earnings (EBITDA) guidance range is -11% below consensus forecasts and -14% below the broker's forecast.

The downgrade was sheeted back to weaker volumes in higher margin Northern NSW and Queensland businesses and challenging seasonal conditions in Canada, which have hit returns from GrainCorp's Canadian joint venture GrainsConnect.

While the outlook for the rest of FY24 and FY25 has improved sharply due to rainfall, and the broker observes weather forecasters are laying odds on a wet (La Nina) season in June August, FY24 EPS forecasts fall -22% to reflect the difficult Spring. FY25 EPS forecasts fall -4%.

The broker appreciates the balance sheet and spies plenty of M&A and capital return options in the wings. Outperform rating retained. Target price falls to $9.26 from $9.70.

Target price is $9.26 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $2.06
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.66, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNC as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

At GrainCorp’s AGM, management provided FY24 guidance for underlying earnings (EBITDA) and underlying profit -12.6% and -31.3% below consensus estimates.

Morgans notes these misses resulted from material losses from GrainsConnect a joint venture with Japan’s Zen-Noh corp, along with weak grain Marketing and Processing earnings.

More positively, the analysts expect the significantly improved FY25 seasonal outlook will underpin large upcoming east coast winter planting.

Morgans' target rises to $8.55 from $8.08 and the rating is upgraded to Add from Hold to take advantage of post-AGM share price weakness.

Target price is $8.55 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $1.35
If GNC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.66, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GNC as Buy (1) -

GrainCorp's December-half result missed both the consensus' and UBS forecast even before the surprise announcement of -$10m to -$12m in upcoming transformation costs.

GrainCorp's Canadian joint venture proved the major disappointment. The broker cuts its FY24 EPS forecast -29%.

Looking ahead, forecast rainfall could turn the tables somewhat in FY25, potentially warranting an upgrade, surmises UBS.

ABARES will provide a moisture soil estimate in June, but for now, FY25 EPS forecast falls -5%. 

The balance sheet proved the big positive following the sale of United Malt. Buy rating retained, the broker appreciating the potential for M&A or capital returns. Target price falls to $8.80.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $1.6
If GNC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.66, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GUD as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Despite automotive earnings (EBITA) in the 1H for G.U.D. Holdings being weaker than Citi expected, the result points to the resilience in aftermarket demand, the broker comments. The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral.

The APG division is experiencing near-term headwinds to the order book from the repeal of Clean Car Discount in New Zealand and Toyota (a key customer) suspending shipments, explains the broker.

Citi still sees potential for medium-term term upside from APG’s geographic expansion from FY25.

The analysts anticipate gearing will remain within the targeted range through FY24, supported by strong cash conversion, which positions the group to pursue more transformative acquisitions.

The target falls to $12.80 from $12.90.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $11.07 Difference: $1.73
If GUD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.84, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GUD as Outperform (1) -

GUD Holdings's December-half revenue met Macquarie's forecasts but earnings (EBITA) disappointed by -3% due to a slight miss from APG and higher than expected costs.

The broker observes the company's core automotive business and margins remained resilient, although higher overheads hit the EBITA margins.

The broker appreciates the company's deleveraged balance sheet (which should support acquisitions), strong operating cash flow; and the normalisation of its inventory.

EPS forecasts fall -4% in FY24; -5% in FY25; and -4% in FY26 to reflect the miss on costs.

Outperfrom rating retained. Target price falls -3% to $12.85.

Target price is $12.85 Current Price is $11.07 Difference: $1.78
If GUD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.84, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GUD as Add (1) -

Following broadly in-line 1H results, Morgans feels the core investment case for G.U.D. Holdings is intact and compelling, despite near-term uncertainty from weaker 2H guidance for AutoPacific Group (APG).

Group sales revenue increased by 8.6% on the previous corresponding period, with Automotive (ex-APG) and APG rising by 5.6% and 15.6%, respectively.

Management also introduced uncertainty around realising FY25 targets for acquiring businesses, notes the broker. The company announced its second bolt-on acquisition for FY24, involving a -$15.9m outlay for Caravan Electrical Solutions.

The target falls to $13.75 from $14.25 and the Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $13.75 Current Price is $11.07 Difference: $2.68
If GUD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.84, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GUD as Hold (3) -

First half results for G.U.D. Holdings demonstrated a resilient automotive wear-and-tear business, believes Ord Minnett, while improved supply helped new car sales improve strongly.

The broker attributes the -8% post-result share price selloff to the softer outlook for Autopacific. It's felt the market is overly concerned by potential impacts from a slowdown in discretionary spending for this division, suggests the analyst.

Ord Minnett now sees value emerging in the share price. An interim dividend of 18.5cps was declared. The $12 target and Hold rating are unchanged.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $11.07 Difference: $0.93
If GUD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.84, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GUD as Buy (1) -

Upon closer examination, UBS confirms G.U.D. Holdings' in-line result, describing the result as solid.

While APG disappointed, the broker observes the core auto business proved resilient, and suggests investors may have been overly optimistic heading into the result and that, following the sell-off of the company's stock, the shares now look cheap.

UBS appreciates the company's strong cash flow, balance sheet and its management of margins.

EPS forecasts are shaved -1% in FY24 and FY25.

Buy rating retained. Target price eases to $12.80 from $13.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $11.07 Difference: $1.73
If GUD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.84, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IEL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

IDP Education reported a strong first half result, Bell Potter declares, with revenue up 15% year on year driven by the student placement segment up 48%, on both volume (+33%) and pricing increases (+11%) across Australia and Multi-destination.

IELTS revenue was nevertheless down -5%, with volumes (-12%) impacted by India (-31%) due to weaker industry conditions, increased competition, and lower repeat testing rates for Canada, the broker notes. As expected no guidance was provided.

Bell Potter has upgraded revenue forecasts by 3% in FY24-25 on strength in student placement volumes and recent pricing increases, but this is more than offset by an increase in overhead assumptions and interest expenses.

Target falls to $23.60 from $25.00, downgrade to Hold from Buy on valuation.

Target price is $23.60 Current Price is $21.92 Difference: $1.68
If IEL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.45, suggesting upside of 27.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IEL as Overweight (1) -

In Morgan Stanley's view, 1H results for IDP Education highlight strength for the student placement (SP) business.

While medium-term growth will be lower due to migration policies/competitive landscape, it's felt these factors are already reflected in the current share price.

Revenue and adjusted earnings (EBIT) for the 1H exceeded consensus forecasts by 4% and 10%, respectively, on stronger SP volumes, explains the broker.

Cost initiatives helped to offset IELTS margin headwinds, note the analysts. Declines in India were considered largely market driven. The impact of Pearson test of English (PTE) competition is expected in the 2H.

The Overweight rating and $27.50 target are maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $21.92 Difference: $5.58
If IEL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.45, suggesting upside of 27.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IEL as Hold (3) -

IDP Education’s 1H results showed positives that will continue to drive long-term growth, in Morgans view, such as fee increases, Student Placement (SP) market share gains and geographic expansion.

Underlying profit rose by 23% on the previous corresponding period, with a 33.5% rise in SP volumes offsetting -11.5% weaker IELTs volume. Pricing was stronger with a 7% increase in test fees for IELTs and a 11% increase in the average SP fee.

The analysts suggest investors may have to weather near-term volatility due to more restrictive migration/International student policy settings in Australia, Canada and the UK. Placement outcomes are considered a material swing factor, and low growth is forecast for FY25.

The target falls to $23.10 from $23.45 and the Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $23.10 Current Price is $21.92 Difference: $1.18
If IEL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.45, suggesting upside of 27.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IEL as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett assesses a strong interim result by IDP Education with adjusted profit rising by 23% on a 14% uplift in revenue supported by higher student placements (SP).

Despite negative industry growth of -3%, the company's SP volumes rose by 33%, helping to offset a weaker performance than the broker had forecast by the IELTS division. Tests taken in India fell by -31% due to changing industry conditions, explains the broker.

Excluding India, the company's IELTS volumes grew by 17% in the half. The interim dividend increased by 19% to 25cps.

Hold rating. The target rises by 4% to $24.50.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $21.92 Difference: $2.58
If IEL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.45, suggesting upside of 27.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IEL as Buy (1) -

IDP Education's December-half earnings outpaced both consensus' and UBS' forecasts thanks to a 33% jump in volume and 7% price increase.

The broker expects the company's quality bias should continue to yield gains in market share, particularly Canada, which should help ameliorate government-policy headwinds.

EPS forecasts rise 5% in FY24; 1% in FY25; and 2% in FY26.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $28 from $27.60.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $21.92 Difference: $6.08
If IEL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.45, suggesting upside of 27.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIC as Buy (1) -

Ridley Corp's December-half result met UBS forecasts, the broker describing the result as solid.

Stockfeeds drove an uplift in procurement margins.

Since the result, weaker tallow prices (due to the commissioning of US biodiesel plants) in January have dampened investors sentiment, observes the broker.

UBS expects this could continue to dog the company in the June half and cuts FY24 EPS forecasts by -4% accordingly.

Ridley Corp is one of UBS's preferred agricultural companies, the broker considering it to be relatively resilient to market cycles, and expecting 17% earnings (EBITDA) growth in FY23.

UBS says this estimate reflects the OMP acquisition; cost and plant efficiencies, and improvements in supply chains and freight network rationalisation; improved volumes as poultry recovers and bottlenecks are removed; and continuing expansion.

Buy rating and $2.80 target price retained.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $0.28
If RIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SSR as No Rating (-1) -

SSR Mining has suspended operations at Copler mine in Turkey due to a big slip on the leach pad. It appears nine workers are missing and rescue effort are under way.

UBS awaits further details and suspects this may be material. The broker is reviewing its rating and price target.

The accident follows a cyanide waste spill in June 2022, which stopped operations for many months, observes UBS.

The news overshadowed the company's publication of its five-year production outlook, which suggests near-term production is poised to disappoint, says the broker.

UBS observes the guidance is back-weighted and expected near-term consensus downgrades of roughly -10% even prior to the accident at Copler.

The broker reports the US share price has fallen -54%.

Current Price is $7.06. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SVW as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Seven Group posted a strong earnings beat led by WesTrac and the Boral ((BLD)) stake, Bell Potter notes. At WesTrac, earnings grew 31% driven by new machine (+23%) and product support sales growth (30%). At Coates, sales were up 2%.

Boral's prior result had also beaten Bell Potter's forecasts. Upgraded guidance implies a weaker second half across each of the Industrial Services businesses, but Bell Potter suggests this is conservative.

Seven Group’s businesses and investments are market leaders in their respective industries, the broker notes, with scale, brand and industry expertise underpinning commercial advantages that are hard to replicate by competitors.

Target rises to $43.30 from $38.00, upgrade to Buy from Hold.

Target price is $43.30 Current Price is $38.91 Difference: $4.39
If SVW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.48, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SVW as Outperform (1) -

Seven Group's December-half result outpaced Macquarie's forecasts by 19% thanks to a stellar performance from WesTrac (which outpaced consensus EBIT forecasts by 30% and Macquarie by 26%).

The broker observes demand continues to run hot across the business.

Coates' EBIT rose 10% thanks to stronger margins.

Overall, operating cash flow was strong in the face of rising working capital and gearing fell, leaving room for M&A and capital management, observes the broker.

EPS forecasts rise 4% in FY24; 3% in FY25; and 6% in FY26.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform given the recent share-price rally. Target price rises 25% to $42.10.

Target price is $42.10 Current Price is $38.91 Difference: $3.19
If SVW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.48, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SVW as Buy (1) -

Seven Group's first half result disclosed a 21% earnings beat to consensus forecasts. UBS highlighst performance from WesTrac as a standout, with earnings 25% ahead of consensus amid elevated demand for fleet rebuild activity. 

As per the broker, cash flow performance was also a highlight, up 36% year-on-year, and seeing Seven Group reduce leverage.

The company lifted its full year earnings growth guidance to mid to high-teens growth, with WesTrac, Coates and Boral all expected to deliver earnings growth between 20-25%.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $45.00 from $34.50.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $38.91 Difference: $6.09
If SVW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.48, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLC as Buy (1) -

Citi forecasts a -4% decline in earnings (EBIT) to $345m, when Lottery Corp reports 1H results on February 21.

The broker feels FY24 consensus estimates are too low given the $200m jackpot run in January for Powerball. Also, it's felt the market is not allowing for the full benefit of the retail commission increase, and the Jumbo Interactive ((JIN)) commission cuts.

Higher interest on Set for Life cash balances are also not being fully accounted for by consensus, suggest the analysts.

The $5.60 target and Buy rating are unchanged.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $0.68
If TLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.39, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TPW as Hold (3) -

Temple & Webster's first half revenue increase of 23% year on year was broadly in line with Bell Potter, while a 3% EBITDA margin, at the top end of 1-3% FY24 guidance, marked a material beat.

The additional marketing investment in brand and performance has driven a strong revenue response, the broker notes, allowing Temple & Webster to sustain its clear market leadership in the online furniture & homewares category.

The second half has commenced with 35% trading growth, one million active customers and a further exploring of M&A opportunities in the B2B business. Target rises to $11.30 from $8.00. Hold retained on valuation.

Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $11.33 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If TPW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.31, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TPW as Neutral (3) -

Closer examination of Temple & Webster's December-half result, has led UBS to upgrade long-term EPS forecasts.

Stellar revenue growth, strong margins and repeat-order share, combined with structural trends (the company holds a leading position in the online market) have increased UBS's conviction in the longer term top-line growth outlook.

On the downside, market expense was higher than expected and the broker considers this to be a forecasting wildcard.

EPS forecast falls -28% in FY24 (mainly to reflect the marketing cost disappointment); -4% in FY25; and rises 10% in FY25.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $10.70 from $7 to reflect long-term upgrades.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $11.33 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If TPW meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.31, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -

Wesfarmers' H1 result has beaten both market consensus and Citi forecasts, the broker comments in an early response. Kmart was yet again the star outperformer, while Bunnings performed in line.

There was one negative in today's update: WesCEF. As the broker points out, lower global ammonia pricing and higher gas costs are a bad combination, and lithium prices are not helping the outlook either.

The interim dividend of 91c compares with Citi's forecast of 84c. Sell. Target $45.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $58.94 Difference: minus $13.94 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $50.48, suggesting downside of -18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources