Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates A1M as Buy (1) -

There were no significant surprises for Ord Minnett within FY23 results for AIC Mines. Business robustness, relative to other ASX small cap base metal names is highlighted.

The broker points out management has operational flexibility (e.g. capital deferral at the Jericho operations) to withstand further deterioration in copper prices without impacting an already solid balance sheet.

As the downside is somewhat protected, the analyst suggests there is a value opportunity with significant upside leverage to the copper price.

The target falls to 70c from 73c. Buy.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.38
If A1M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 119% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates A1M as Buy (1) -

FY23 results from AIC Mines provided no surprises for Shaw and Partners, given the quarterly disclosures. The broker notes the company enters FY24 as a substantially larger entity following the takeover of Demetallica and the construction and commissioning of new tailings facilities.

There is no change to the FY24 production target of 12,500t copper at AISC of $5/lb. The broker looks forward to a steady improvement at Eloise as well as mill expansion studies and development at Jericho. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $0.80 from $0.60.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.48
If A1M meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates A1N as Neutral (3) -

ARN Media's June-half result appears to have met consensus expectations due to the widely anticipated softness in the advertising market.

But Macquarie observes strong operating momentum kicking it at the end of the period and expects this, combined with market share gains, should offset ad market weakness, resulting in a flat September quarter.

Podcast revenue grew in the quarter, gearing was brought into line and the broker appreciates the company's 9% to 10% dividend yield and spies buyback potential.

EPS forecasts fall -1% in FY23, -8% in FY24 and -10% in FY25.

Neutral rating retained. Target price eases -3% to $1 from $1.03.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.085
If A1N meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIA as Outperform (1) -

Auckland International Airport's FY23 result landed at the top end of guidance, thanks to a recovery in passenger volumes. FY24 guidance met Macquarie's forecasts but the dividend appears to have disappointed.

Management has guided to an 82% increase in FY24 net profit after tax, and Macquarie appears to agree. With the company logging an FY23 exit rate for international at 86% of pre-covid levels, the broker spies plenty of upside for FY24.

Aeronautical pricing is under review, and could also weigh in the company's favour, says the broker. Oupterform rating and NZ$9.56 target price retained.

Current Price is $7.37. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AIA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley anticipates a modest positive reaction to Auckland International Airport's FY23 results, which were mixed yet broadly in line.

FY24 guidance is for underlying net profit of NZ$260-280m based on 8.5m domestic passengers and 10.6m international passengers. Significant transformation projects mean FY24 capital expenditure of NZ$1-1.4bn has been allocated.

The target is NZ$9.28. Equal-weight. Industry view: Cautious.

Current Price is $7.37. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIZ as Outperform (1) -

Air New Zealand's FY23 result outpaced guidance and fell shy of Macquarie's forecast, the broker observing the performance was its second best on record. No FY24 guidance was issued and the broker observes cost pressures are muddying the waters.

A big net-debt reduction and extremely good operating cash performance helped drive a 6c special dividend and moved the balance sheet into an undergeared position, observes the broker.

Macquarie spies $300m to $650m being available for distribution by FY25.

EPS forecasts rise 1% in FY24 and 3% in FY25.

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises to NZ98c a share from NZ90c.

Current Price is $0.72. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALC as Buy (1) -

FY23 results from Alcidion Group were largely in line with Bell Potter's expectations. The company starts FY24 in a strong position, with $33.7m in contracted revenue.

The broker believes this will be a pivotal year for commercial execution and positive EBITDA should be achieved, while the UK market should overtake Australasia as the leading source of revenue. Buy rating maintained. Target edges up to $0.16 from $0.15.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.04
If ALC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALK as Buy (1) -

Underlying net profit in FY23 rose 19% and Alkane Resources' gold revenue grew to $190.5m, the latter being well ahead of Bell Potter's expectations.

The expansion of Tomingley will begin in earnest in FY24 and earnings should fund growth activity in its Northern Molong porphyry project. Amid upside of 57.9% from the last closing share price, the broker retains a Buy rating. Target is unchanged at $1.05.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $0.385
If ALK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates APA as Hold (3) -

The analyst at Morgans was disappointed by not only FY23 earnings for APA Group but also higher cost and capex guidance along with FY24 dividend guidance of 56cps compared to the 58.5cps consensus estimate.

The broker suggests meaningful headwinds to cashflow growth will arise from significant cost growth across corporate and capability, technology transformation, stay-in-business (SIB) capex and foundation capex.

The broadly value-per-share neutral acquistion of the Alinta Energy Pilbara business and associated $750m capital raise further lowers the brokers forecasts.

Nonetheless, investors are advised by Morgans to take up the Share Purchase Plan, given a total potential return of around 10% which includes a 6.6% cash yield.

The Hold rating is maintained while the target falls to $8.79 from $10.05.

Target price is $8.79 Current Price is $8.95 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.70, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates APE as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Eagers Automotive posted a first half result that was slightly ahead of expectations. Operating cash flow was strong and the interim dividend of $0.24 exceeded forecasts and was a record.

The company has indicated it is on track to exceed its 2023 revenue forecasts. Recent improvements have occurred in deliveries and this is expected to continue into the second half.

Bell Potter makes little change to pre-tax profit forecast and increases revenue forecasts for 2023-25 by 3-7%, although this has been largely offset at the underlying operating profit level by higher forecast net interest expense.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target raised to $15.25 from $15.15.

Target price is $15.25 Current Price is $14.23 Difference: $1.02
If APE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.88, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APE as Neutral (3) -

Eagers Automotive's June-half result broadly met consensus and Macquarie's forecasts thanks to a strong recovery in May and June.

The broker observes order writes remain ahead of deliveries until June 2024, although it did register its first reduction since covid as operating equipment manufacturers (OEM) cleansed order books.

Macquarie believes the main risk lays in an eventual normalisation of margins as volumes rebuild. Much depends on the intentions of OEMs as the ball lands back in their park.

EPS forecasts fall -0.3% in FY23, -2.4% in FY24 and -2.9% in FY25. Neutral rating retained. Target price eases to $14.70 from $15.

Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $14.23 Difference: $0.47
If APE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.88, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley finds a lot to like in the first half numbers from Eagers Automotive, which were largely in line.

The broker observes the stock is "slightly down" in an initial reaction, suspected to be on the back of commentary regarding demand peaking and supply being a better match in the second half.

Morgan Stanley believes the bull thesis on the stock continues to be based on capital allocation and execution, although the cycle will probably weigh on the share price in the second half. Overweight rating and $16 target. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $14.23 Difference: $1.77
If APE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.88, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates APE as Add (1) -

Eagers Automotive’s 1H result was in line with Morgans expectations with focused cost management a highlight. It’s felt management have more levers to pull on the cost front relative to peers to manage through the economic cycle.

Consumer demand was robust in the half, according to the broker, and management expressed confidence in the strength of the orders and the multi-year run-off period for the book.

Management expects a stronger 2H margin and guides to 2023 revenue of between $9.5-10bn.

The analysts note an array of medium-term growth initiatives including consolidation, strategic industry alliances, leading the electric vehicle transition and new markets offshore.

The target rises to $15.50 from $15.30. Add.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $14.23 Difference: $1.27
If APE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.88, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APE as Buy (1) -

In the wake of 1H FY23 results for Eagers Automotive, Ord Minnett expects stronger margins for longer, helped along by a substantial order book.

The analysts note a 5% revenue beat within 1H results and while 2023 revenue guidance was unchanged, associated commentary was bullish, including being “on track to exceed” guidance. It's noted the company implemented significant cost savings in FY23.

The $16.20 target and Buy rating are unchanged.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $14.23 Difference: $1.97
If APE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.88, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APE as Neutral (3) -

A return to year on year profit growth across May/June as new car deliveries picked up saw Eagers Automotive meet UBS' first half expectations. 2023 revenue guidance is maintained on expectations of a 1.2m vehicle market.

June was the first point in time since the beginning of covid deliveries tracked above orders, and the order bank declined slightly. The broker continues to expect the order bank will take some time to work through.

But the general narrative on dealers has been margins will stay high while demand continues to outpace supply, so UBS expects more attention on margins given moderating demand and rising supply.

The broker reduces its BYD sales forecast given slower demand and suggests the stock is fairly valued. Target rises to $14.10 from $13.00, Neutral retained.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $14.23 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If APE meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.88, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AX1 as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Accent Group's FY23 result revealed sufficient positives for Citi to upgrade its rating for the shares to Buy from Neutral. The broker mentions "demonstrated material progress" with management's vertical strategy.

Part of the positive thesis is based on higher margins, now believed to be sustainable. Citi believes sales trends are better. Historical comparables do not get more challenging from here.

Estimates have been upgraded by 8% and 18% respectively for FY24 and FY25. Target price climbs 18% to $2.12.

Target price is $2.12 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.275
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.04, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AX1 as Equal-weight (3) -

At first glance, FY23 results were broadly in line with expectations although the business appears to be tracking ahead of forecasts on sales and gross margins at the start of the first half. No earnings guidance was provided.

Morgan Stanley believes the results should be received positively, as investors have been cautious about consumer businesses given many retailers downgraded expectations in May and June.

Equal-weight rating and target price of $2.20. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.355
If AX1 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.04, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BGA as Hold (3) -

Underlying FY23 EBITDA from Bega Cheese was in line with prior guidance and Bell Potter's forecast. FY24 EBITDA guidance is set at $160-170m and the company is implementing a five-year strategic plan targeting more than $250m in EBITDA.

The broker raises forecasts for net profit in FY24 by 18% to reflect lower depreciation charges. Hold rating maintained.

The coming year appears to be fairly benign in terms of growth, reflecting the headwinds of lower commodity prices and limited reprieve at the farm gate. Target is unchanged at $3.50.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.27
If BGA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.40, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BGA as Hold (3) -

As expected by Morgans, the FY23 result for Bega Cheese was weak though pleasingly the higher quality Branded business had a strong 2H. Bulk was loss making due to falling global dairy prices and Australian processors overpaying for milk, explain the analysts.

Positives moving forward, in the broker's view, are the company's cost-out program and ongoing strong growth for Branded offset by a near-term continuation of the challenging operating environment for Bulk.

FY24 underlying earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $160-170m was in line with consensus while management announced a five-year strategic plan with an earnings target of $250m and 10% return on funds employed (ROFE). Morgans notes a FY23 return of 3.7%.

The target rises to $3.48 from $3.45. Hold.

Target price is $3.48 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.25
If BGA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.40, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BGA as Lighten (4) -

Bega Cheese's FY23 earnings (EBITDA) were in line with Ord Minnett's forecast while normalised profit was a slight beat. Ongoing elevated farm gate milk prices and declining global commodity prices are expected to weigh on FY24 and FY25 earnings.

As a result of this outlook, the broker maintains its Lighten rating and $3.10 target.

The analyst highlights FY23 was impacted by a -$308m increase in input costs and SG&A costs, largely due to inflationary pressures.

Management announced a final fully franked dividend of 3cps, down from the 5.5cps in the previous corresponding period, to reflect the reduction in earnings in the second half.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If BGA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.40, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Sell (5) -

UBS has not provided an earnings assessment for BHP Group but has updated post yesterday's round-table discussion, at which the focus was on the company's pivot to growth.

Much centred on copper options in Chile and South Australia. BHP also flagged a near-term cautious outlook for iron ore due to anticipated steel production cuts in China.

UBS concurs with that view, expecting lower iron ore prices ahead. Sell retained. Target down to $36 from a prior $37.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $43.78 Difference: minus $7.78 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.60, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BMT as Buy (1) -

FY23 results from Beamtree Holdings (pre-announced) show international momentum continues to build and Shaw and Partners reiterates a Buy rating with a $0.70 target.

Highlights of the report show a second co-sale agreement with Abbott and a smaller deal in Mexico. The broker also points to "lots of activity" in Saudi Arabia.

More clarity on FY24 guidance has been provided with the company targeting revenue growth of 20%. This is expected to deliver a positive operating profit.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.48
If BMT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 218% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRI as Buy (1) -

While the FY23 result for Big River Industries was softer than forecast, Ord Minnett was positively surprised that management “remains positive given our end market diversity”.

The company believes support derives from the current housing backlog extending into 2024 and a strong Commercial pipeline.

As a result of this outlook, the broker expects more resilient results in the short-term relative to market expectations. It's also thought Big River Industries is well-placed to take advantage of the strengthening medium-to-longer term outlook.

The target rises to $2.79 from $2.77. Current macroeconomic headwinds are already incorporated into the current share price, suggests the broker, and the Buy rating is maintained.

Ord Minnett believes a 6% fully franked dividend yield is sustainable.

Target price is $2.79 Current Price is $2.45 Difference: $0.34
If BRI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CAJ as Buy (1) -

Capitol Health posted FY23 results that were largely in line with earlier guidance. Bell Potter notes growth at the top line was constrained by ongoing disruptions stemming from the pandemic, specific operating changes at the clinic and slower-than-expected recovery in GP attendances.

The broker observes the main focus is for organic growth through the network via cost control while management is also targeting a potential extra $5m in EBITDA through accretive acquisitions.

Buy rating maintained and Bell Potter expects a partial recovery of operating margins in FY24, driven by increased GP attendances and growth in diagnostic services. Target is reduced to $0.28 from $0.30.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.045
If CAJ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 38.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CAJ as Outperform (1) -

Capitol Health's FY23 result met underlying EBITDA guidance provided in June, and outpaced Macquarie's forecast by 1%, thanks to a stronger than expected recovery in organic revenue.

On the downside, elevated operating expenditure hit earnings (EBITDA) margins as high labour, recruitment and occupancy costs took their toll.

The broker expects continued strong growth in organic revenue in FY24 but spies headwinds from GP attendance which is slower to recover from covid (down -27% on pre-covid), noting the company gains 80% of referrals from GPs. It also expects continued cost growth.

EPS forecasts fall -4% in FY24, rise 1% in FY25 and 5% in FY25.

Outperform rating and 30c target price retained.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.065
If CAJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 38.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CAJ as Buy (1) -

Capitol Health's FY23 results were in line with the broker's forecasts following a June trading update by management. An updated FY24 earnings forecast reflects 9% revenue growth and an earnings margin of 20.1%.

Ord Minnett retains its Buy rating as it's felt the risk/reward ratio is positively skewed given improving operating conditions, an undemanding valuation and potential for M&A upside.

In terms of strategic interest, the analyst points to a strategy update by Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)) at its FY23 result to include growth in new adjacencies with diagnostic imaging specifically called out.

The target falls to 30c from 32c. Buy.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.065
If CAJ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 38.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CGC as Hold (3) -

Costa Group has provided a brief trading update and delayed the release of first half results by a week. Issues with late-season citrus quality are expected to cost around -$30m in the second half and the company has also noted demand for tomatoes has softened.

Bell Potter suspects the uplift in 2023 is likely to be materially less than previously expected. As an interim measure and pending the results, Bell Potter downgrades net profit estimates by -49% for 2023 and by -25% for 2024.

Target is reduced to $3.10 from $3.50 and a Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: $0.14
If CGC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.14, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CWP as Hold (3) -

While FY23 results for Cedar Woods Properties were in line with guidance, profit was a 5.4% beat compared to Morgans forecast.

Settlements fell by - 3.8% year-on-year, though the average price was up significantly due to a mix shift, explains the analyst, resulting in a 4.8% revenue beat.

Management acknowleded short-term uncertainty for the residential housing market, while also stressing a more optimistic medium-term view. 

Morgans agrees on the outlook and suggests the company is well placed to continue delivering new lot housing into an undersupplied market. The target rises to $5.45 from $5.00. Hold on valuation.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $5.20 Difference: $0.25
If CWP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWY as Outperform (1) -

Cleanaway Waste Management's result met guidance and consensus forecasts, a strong operational improvement flowing through to margins.

Lower labour and fuel costs and strong operational improvements in the Health Services business all contributed.

On the downside, interest cost guidance missed consensus and the broker's forecasts. Otherwise steady as she goes, the broker observing solid momentum.

EPS forecasts fall -6.5% in FY24, -3.5% in FY25 and 0.9% in FY26 to reflect higher capex, depreciation and amortisation and interest costs.

Outperform rating retained. Target price eases 2% to $3 from $3.05.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.55 Difference: $0.45
If CWY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.74, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CWY as Overweight (1) -

Ahead of the company briefing, Morgan Stanley notes FY23 EBITDA from Cleanaway Waste Management was largely in line with expectations and guidance.

Underlying net profit was down -13% compared with the broker's estimates because of higher interest costs.

Overweight rating and target price of $3.03. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.03 Current Price is $2.55 Difference: $0.48
If CWY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.74, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CWY as Hold (3) -

Given recent guidance, FY23 earnings for Cleanaway Waste Management came in as expected and indicated to Morgans a solid 2H recovery with momentum into the 1H of FY24.

Consensus had been expecting falling costs but were negatively surprised, according to the broker, by an 81% increase in FY23 net finance costs. As around 54% of company debt is exposed to floating rates, costs are expected to rise further in FY24.

No quantitative FY24 guidance was issued though management highlighted its three-year earnings (EBIT) ambition (higher than the analyst anticipated) of more than $450m partly driven by earnings on growth capex and productivity improvements.

The target rises to $2.59 from $2.45 and the Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $2.59 Current Price is $2.55 Difference: $0.04
If CWY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.74, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CWY as Neutral (3) -

The key takeaways from Cleanaway Waste Management's FY23 result for UBS are the margin recovery continues, capex is elevated, and the company is on track to surpass $450m in earnings in FY26.

The broker sees this target as very achievable through a combination of acquisitions, pricing and operational improvement.

However, key drivers such as labour efficiency remain a work in progress and increased capex is still a risk should the core businesses not recover as expected.

Neutral and $2.65 target retained.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.55 Difference: $0.1
If CWY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.74, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CXL as Speculative Buy (1) -

FY23 results were slightly ahead of Bell Potter's estimates. Calix reported year-end cash of $74.5m and debt of $1.3m. The broker makes estimate changes to reflect a reduction in the US water business revenue along with higher general administrative expense assumptions.

The broker emphasises the growing suite of applications that are targeting global challenges, including the decarbonisation of hard-to-abate industrial processes along with improvement to supply chain efficiency.

The stock represents a valuable sustainable investment opportunity, in the broker's opinion, and a Speculative Buy rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $8.30 from $8.70.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $4.39 Difference: $3.91
If CXL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CXL as Buy (1) -

Calix has highlighted a number of projects and the signing of multiple partnership agreements in its FY23 results. Sales were below Shaw and Partners forecasts while other revenue was ahead. Gross profit was ahead of expectations.

The broker assesses the tailwinds for the company and its calciner technology remain positive, believing carbon mitigation provides the greatest upside and the company is well-placed to deliver a positive outcome for shareholders. Buy rating and $6 target maintained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.39 Difference: $1.61
If CXL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EBO as Outperform (1) -

Ebos Group's FY23 result outpaced consensus by 4% and FY24 guidance was, on balance, positive, advises Macquarie.

Animal Care and operating cash flow proved the big beats, but capital expenditure is expected to remain high until FY25.

Macquarie believes the share price is not accounting for much CWA contract loss in FY25.

EPS forecasts rise 4% in FY24 and fall -7% in FY25 and FY26.

Outperform rating retained to reflect elective surgery volume forecasts. Target price falls -7% to NZ$38.91.

Current Price is $33.00. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $34.61, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EGL as Buy (1) -

Environmental Group's results were in line with the update provided in July and slightly ahead of Bell Potter's estimates. The drivers were stronger contributions from Baltec and lower corporate costs.

The company is guiding for an increase in EBITDA of more than 30%, implying mid-high single-digit growth and an EBITDA baseline of $8.7m in FY24. Bell Potter considers this an achievable starting point given the work outlook. Buy rating and $0.33 target maintained.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.12
If EGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EXP as Buy (1) -

Despite downward pressure on short-term cash flow, evident in FY23 results, from the delayed return of Chinese travellers, Ord Minnett considers the magnitude of earnings leverage for Experience Co supports a Buy rating.

The Trees segment, the most attractive opportunity for the company, in the analyst's view, appears to be performing strongly. A further acceleration in the early months of FY24 is thought to point to the counter cyclical nature and quality of the earnings stream.

Due to the late arrival of Chinese holidaymakers to A&NZ, Ord Minnett lowers its target to 35c from 38c. Buy. The FY23 result revealed a normalised profit of $0.7m versus the broker's net loss forecast of -$2m.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.11
If EXP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

On second glance at Fineos Corp's FY23 result, Macquarie corrects its depreciation & amortisation forecasts but the broker advises this does not affect its valuation.

The result was in line with the earlier trading update and FY24 guidance is unchanged. In aggregate the company expects to achieve positive free cash flow in FY25. Macquarie assesses this is important, given the seasonality of cash flow.

EPS forecasts rise sharply, thanks to a 28.3% jump in earnings (EBITDA) forecasts in FY24 and 21.6% in FY25.

System integrators are expected to have a greater role in product implementation. Outperform rating and $2.47 target.

Target price is $2.47 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: $0.35
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 49.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HCW as Add (1) -

The FY23 result for HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT was in line with guidance while FY24 guidance for 8cpu funds from operations (FFO), and the same dividend, was broadly in line with Morgans forecasts.

The broker suggests the over $1bn development pipeline should deliver enhanced rental income over the near-to medium-term and expects an upcoming share price catalyst from the company's near-term inclusion in the ASX300.

The target slips to $1.67 from $1.72. Add.

Target price is $1.67 Current Price is $1.48 Difference: $0.19
If HCW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.62, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HSN as Overweight (1) -

On subsequent review, Morgan Stanley finds the Hansen Technologies FY23 result, which slightly beat estimates, supports a positive view.

The broker highlights a key feature being the EBITDA margin of 32%, well above pre-pandemic levels and the result of disciplined cost management and the stabilisation in the hiring environment.

Working from a higher base the broker lifts forecasts to be in line with first time FY24 guidance.Targeted organic revenue growth is 5-7%, ahead of the company's average revenue growth rate over the last three years.

Overweight rating maintained and the price target is lifted to $6.40 from $5.75. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.68 Difference: $0.72
If HSN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.43, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IEL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

IDP Education posted a strong FY23 result which was broadly in line with Bell Potter's forecasts. There was no formal outlook although management noted that IELTS is expected to be subdued in FY24 and marketing expenditure will increase in the second half.

The broker downgrades revenue forecasts by less than -2% for both FY24 and FY25 because of reductions in IELTS forecasts and slightly higher overheads. Target is reduced to $26.70 from $27.00 and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy.

Target price is $26.70 Current Price is $25.94 Difference: $0.76
If IEL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.79, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IEL as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

IDP Education's FY23 result fell -1% shy of consensus but outpaced Macquarie's forecasts by 9%.

The broker observes the company made strong market-share gains in student placements, and that this is more than offsetting competitive risks in the IELTS (international) market.

The company reported record margins of 23%. EPS forecasts rise 15% in FY24; 22% in FY25; and 24% in FY26.

Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. Target price rises 24% to $26 from $21.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $25.94 Difference: $0.06
If IEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.79, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IEL as Hold (3) -

While Ord Minnett's earnings estimates are broadly unchanged in the wake of FY23 results for IDP Education, the target rises to $23.50 from $22.50 largely due to the time value of money.

The broker was impressed by the company's pricing power with fee price rises for English language testing and student placement (SP) of 6% and 7%, respectively. FY23 profit was considered strong as education services rebound post covid.

Placement revenue rose by 63%, mainly driven by student volumes, notes the analyst, while English testing volumes only grew by 1%.

A final dividend of 20cps was declared.

The Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $25.94 Difference: minus $2.44 (current price is over target).
If IEL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.79, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFL as Neutral (3) -

Citi's response to Insignia Financial's FY23 results, with FY24 guidance and outlook tempered because of higher costs, was "another year of going nowhere".

Group EBITDA margin is expected to decline in FY24 as management flagged additional costs for cyber security and governance. Citi was already positioned below market consensus and has now further decreased its FY24 EPS estimate by -6%.

The broker's points out "the stock is destined to remain a value trap for a while yet".

Target price falls to $2.50 from $3.10. Neutral.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFL as Overweight (1) -

FY23 underlying net profit was slightly better than expected although Morgan Stanley warns the FY24 outlook implies downgrades to forecasts and the ongoing delay in profit recovery could put pressure on the stock.

The company expects FY24 platform margins to fall to 44-45 basis points, from 47 basis points in the second half, compared with 45 basis points anticipated by the broker.

Morgan Stanley also points to solid progress on remediation program payments in the second half with no increase in net cost. Overweight rating and $3.50 target. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.9
If IFL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IGL as Buy (1) -

FY23 results from IVE Group were slightly below Bell Potter's forecasts and underlying EPS forecasts for FY24 and FY25 are downgraded by -12%.

The broker updates the valuation used to determine the price target to allow for the earnings changes and modestly increases multiples applied to the P/E ratio and EV/EBITDA. The net result is a reduction in the price target to $2.75 from $3.00. Buy retained.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.56
If IGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JDO as Buy (1) -

Judo Capital's FY23 was in line with expectations as far as the cash earnings are concerned, but additional disclosures indicate a material reduction in the FY24 net interest margin (NIM), explains Citi.

The broker believes consensus forecasts will have to reset a whole lot lower, also because of higher operating costs and rising credit costs.

Citi is now forecasting net profits to decline in FY24, and decline further in FY25. The broker points out consensus is positioned for 40% earnings CAGR over FY24/25.

Target price falls to $1.35 from $1.65. Buy rating retained, with the added comment investors will need to be patient.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.335
If JDO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 34.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JDO as Neutral (3) -

Judo Capital's  FY23 result fell -3% shy of consensus forecasts. While Macquarie considered the result solid, management guided to lower FY24 margins as its deposit spread normalises.

The broker says a capital raising could be on the cards, given lower organic capital generation forecasts and as bank deposit competition intensifies, observing 65% of the company's TFF is unhedged.

The broker expects the company will be forced to refinance its TFF in FY24 and says its success will be a key determiner of FY24 performance.

EPS forecasts fall -12% in FY24, -17% in FY25 and -15% in FY26 to reflect refinancing of the TFF, deposit normalisation, larger dilution, and higher warehouse utilisation.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $1.15 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.135
If JDO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 34.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JDO as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

FY23 results from Judo Capital were welcomed in that guidance was achieved and the medium-term "metrics at scale" targets have been maintained.

No specific guidance for FY24 was provided, although the company has signalled a sharp margin decline, and Morgan Stanley reduces its margin forecasts for FY24 by -20 basis points expecting margins to drop as low as 2.8% in the second half.

CEO Joseph Healy stressed the business is managing "growth and margin and risk" and the broker suspects this will lead to slower loan growth, forecasting revenue growth of just 7.5% in FY24.

Rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight and the target lowered to $1.20 from $1.70. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.185
If JDO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 34.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates KAR as Hold (3) -

A 63% increase in underlying profit for FY23 for Karoon Energy was close to Ord Minnett's forecast.

Management is guiding to FY24 production of 9-11mmboe at a US$15/barrel unit cost.

No dividend was declared though management will be reassessing shareholder returns over the next six months.

Shares are modestly undervalued, in Ord Minnett's view, and a Hold rating is maintained while the target rises by 4% to $2.50.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0.2
If KAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi had downgraded its rating for Lovisa Holdings in June to Sell from Neutral on concerns declining foot traffic in general and weaker sales trends revealed by other retailers may impact.

The broker now argues that thesis has come to fruition with the retailer's release of FY23 financials. Now the rating goes back up to Neutral from Sell. Target price climbs to $22.30 from $16.

Lovisa is still expanding at a rapid pace, the broker acknowledges, just not as fast as the market had been expecting. Better cost management sees the broker lifting forecasts.

Target price is $22.30 Current Price is $21.23 Difference: $1.07
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.70, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LOV as Neutral (3) -

Lovisa Holdings's FY23 result outpaced consensus forecasts by 2% and Macquarie by 6%, as higher-than-forecast margins outpaced lower-than-expected sales (which were still strong - up 30%).

The company entered 12 new markets in FY23; gross margins rose 1 percentage point to 80% but the cost of doing business increased as a percentage of sales. Lovisa Holdings closed June 30 with net debt of 33.4m and advised it would continue to invest in more store rollouts. 

Management observes solid trading in the first months of FY24, with 21 stores added so far, but Macquarie notes competitors are starting to slow, which will likely intensify competition.

EPS forecasts fall -2.5% in FY24 to reflect the broker's expectations of higher net interest and debt; and fall -8% in FY25 to reflect forecast increases in interest expense and lower sales.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $22.35 from $22 to reflect the beat.

Target price is $22.35 Current Price is $21.23 Difference: $1.12
If LOV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.70, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LOV as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

FY23 results from Lovisa Holdings were a slight miss on Morgan Stanley's forecasts. The broker was previously concerned about growth in store numbers, negative comparables and higher reinvestment yet now believes these issues are better understood.

The potential for long-term rolling out of stores continues and this is key to the share performance, even though the rate may decelerate and Morgan Stanley lifts its terminal store count to around 18,000 implying an 8% compound growth rate.

The broker acknowledges comparables will likely remain negative throughout the first half of FY24 after cycling multiple years of re-opening tailwinds and price increases.

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight and the target lifted to $25.25 from $23.50. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $25.25 Current Price is $21.23 Difference: $4.02
If LOV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.70, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LOV as Add (1) -

FY23 sales for Lovisa Holdings were in line with Morgans expectations, though higher finance costs meant profit was a slight miss.

The company has recently established a Wholly Foreign-Owned Enterprise (WFOE) in China and the broker believes entry into mainland China will occur in FY24.

Morgans leaves its revenue and earnings estimates largely unchanged in FY24 and FY25 and increases forecasts in the outer years for an entry into China, resulting in a higher rate of medium-to long-term network expansion.

The target rises to $27.50 from $26. Add.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $21.23 Difference: $6.27
If LOV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.70, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LOV as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett suggests an -8% miss against its FY23 profit forecast for Lovisa Holdings is inconsequential compared to the global rollout opportunity. The investment thesis is unchanged along with the Accumulate rating and $22 target.

Comparable store sales momentum deteriorated materially in the last 19 weeks of FY23, notes the broker, and like-for-like sales were down -6% in the first seven weeks of FY24 versus the previous corresponding period. The falls are attributed to weaker spending by millenials.

The broker's long-term forecasts more than offset weaker near term considerations, including a moderation in store openings.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $21.23 Difference: $0.77
If LOV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.70, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MAF as Buy (1) -

MA Financial's first half result was slightly below expectations, entirely driven by lower performance fees. Ord Minnett observes the business has ambitious operating targets for FY26, a good indication of the underlying momentum.

For example, in asset management the company is targeting $15bn which compares with the latest update of $8.9bn. In MA Money, the company is targeting a loan book of $4bn and $190bn in loans on platform for Finsure.

Buy rating reiterated. Target rises to $7.60 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $3
If MAF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MAF as Buy (1) -

MA Financial's first half result was an -8% earnings miss on UBS but importantly, the growth metrics which underpin the longer term outlook all continue to be strong.

The miss came as the company cycled off very strong performance fees in the prior year and a tough Corporate Advisory & Equities market.

Medium term goals for assets under management and profit from MA Money and Finsure managed loans present upside to UBS' current forecasts. While some noise surrounds property investments more broadly, the broker believes MA Financial is well positioned given fund structures and strong distribution channels.

Buy and $6.60 target retained.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $2
If MAF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MCP as Hold (3) -

McPherson's reported FY23 results that were ahead of expectations. Declining sales for the A'kin and Multix brands were well flagged, the broker points out, contributing to a -2% decline in yearly group sales.

New management will inherit a business that has #1 and #2 brands in multiple categories with broad distribution into grocery and pharmacy channels.

The broker also observes the balance sheet is in "reasonable shape" and there are no major expenditure programs on the horizon. Hold rating retained. Target edges down to $0.56 from $0.60.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.065
If MCP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

Medibank Private's FY23 result outpaced consensus and Citi's forecasts, but the broker expects fallout from the cyber attack to weigh going forward.

The broker observes operating momentum has recovered and expects the company will continue to grow steadily although a system slowdown (management guided to slowing in Private Health Insurance over FY24) could take the shine off things. Management also guided to higher claims.

EPS forecasts fall -0.4% in FY24 after adjusting for IFRS (pre-adjustment it was up 5%) and rise 5% in FY25.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $3.70 from $3.45.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $0.19
If MPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

Medibank Private's FY23 result beat Macquarie's forecasts on both profit and margin, thanks to a combination of productivity savings and policyholder growth.

Average net claims per policy unit rose 2.6% and cyber-crime costs related to upgrades and class action took a toll and the broker expects the cyber-crime costs will continue into FY24.

EPS forecasts rise 7.9% in FY24, 9.6% in FY25 and 2.5% to 7.7% thereafter.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $3.75 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $0.24
If MPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MPL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley welcomes the "solid" performance in the FY23 results with underlying earnings per share providing a strong beat to estimates.

The claims environment still appears benign and the broker also believes pricing remains reasonable as lost market share is restored.

Medibank Private has implemented a delayed 2.96% price increase which will benefit FY24 and there is no obvious impact on system participation observed in the latest APRA statistics.

Valuation keeps the broker at Equal-weight while the target is raised to $3.70 from $3.68. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $0.19
If MPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MPL as Hold (3) -

Morgans assesses a solid FY23 result for Medibank Private due to a strong investment income performance and an operating profit beat.

FY24 claims growth guidance suggests to the broker the favourable environment of claims falling short of expectations will continue. However, management did note the variance between hospital actual and expected claims closed materially over the 2H of FY23.

The full year dividend of 14.6cps was a 9% increase on FY22.

Morgans makes more favourable claims assumptions and increases its investment income forecasts. The target rises to $3.74 from $3.64. The Hold rating is kept on valuation.

Target price is $3.74 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $0.23
If MPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MPL as Hold (3) -

FY23 profit was broadly in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts. While the core private health insurance business was better than forecast it was offset by reduced income from other investments.

Reduced telehealth income in the wake of the pandemic and costs in establishing new short-stay hospitals dragged on the result, yet this has no implication for the broker's positive long-term view.

Medibank Private reported an underlying margin of 8.6% which the broker envisages can gradually ease back to around 8% over the next five years. Hold rating retained. Target is $3.50.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MPL as Buy (1) -

Medibank Private has managed the core business well, UBS suggests, in the fallout from the cyber event last year. While policy growth guidance and further cyber event costs were on the disappointing side, claims management has been strong.

Underwriting remains healthy and set up well for attractive margins to sustain. M&A options remain on the table as the excess capital position remains solid.

The non-residential segment delivered very strong results and UBS believes the margin outlook remains positive, forecasting the FY24 margin to hold up at 8.7%. Buy and $4.20 target retained.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $0.69
If MPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEC as Accumulate (2) -

A -16% drop in FY23 normalised EBITDA for Nine Entertainment met Ord Minnett's expectations. The broker found the composition of the results "unremarkable" with a -30% decline in free-to-air TV earnings less than previously feared. In contrast, a 30% jump in Stan was "eye-catching".

The broker looks through the current cyclical weakness and applauds management's cost control while noting "investor trepidation" regarding cyclical stocks is obvious. Ord Minnett cuts FY24 estimates for EBITDA by -12% and retains an Accumulate rating with a $2.80 target.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: $0.76
If NEC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NSR as Hold (3) -

National Storage REIT's FY23 result was in line with guidance while FY24 underlying EPS guidance is around the FY23 level (minimum of 11.3cpu) as a result of the income drag from an increase in developments, explains Morgans.

A 20% growth in storage revenue and an improvement in operating margin of 200bps helped propel FY23 underlying earnings 12.1% higher compared to FY22.

The broker assumes the dividend will remain flat at 11cpu in FY24.

The target rises to $2.40 from $2.34. Hold.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.09
If NSR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.34, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Northern Star Resources' FY23 result was mixed, earnings (EBITDA) falling -1% shy of Macquarie's forecasts but net profit after tax nearly doubled the broker's forecasts thanks to buybacks and writebacks.

FY23 EPS appears to have sharply disappointed. FY24 guidance was retained. The broker observes the biggest contributor to net profit "surprise" was a $437m writeback of stockpiles at KCGM.

Otherwise, most metrics were in line, although net cash was a miss due to larger than forecast lease liabilities. A final unfranked dividend of 15.5c brought the total dividend to 26.5c, a -2% miss on Macquarie's forecasts.

Outperform rating and $14 target price retained.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.16 Difference: $2.84
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.10, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett found the FY23 results from Northern Star Resources straightforward with both underlying earnings and net profit in line with expectations. The company has extended the $300m buyback by a year while the outlook is unchanged.

The broker considers the stock a good large liquid gold exposure yet retains a Hold rating as it is trading in line with its fair value assumptions. Target rises to $11.60 from $11.40.

Target price is $11.60 Current Price is $11.16 Difference: $0.44
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.10, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PFP as Buy (1) -

Propel Funeral Partners posted FY23 results that revealed a 16% increase in revenue, supported by 9% growth in funerals. The company expects $200-220m in revenue in FY24 with $54-60m in operating EBITDA.

The results were largely in line with forecasts and Bell Potter increases gross margin assumptions, which did beat estimates, also factoring in some occupancy cost leverage benefits.

Growth is well supported by a strong underlying business with good pricing power in addition to the acquisition strategy in a large and fragmented market. Buy retained. Target is raised $5.70 from $5.60.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.22 Difference: $1.48
If PFP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PFP as Overweight (1) -

FY23 earnings and revenue, in an initial view, was slightly softer than Morgan Stanley anticipated while the guidance for FY24 was a positive surprise. Revenue is guided at $200-220m and EBITDA of $54-60m.

The Overweight rating and $5.85 target are retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $4.22 Difference: $1.63
If PFP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PPT as Overweight (1) -

FY23 results from Perpetual were below expectations. Morgan Stanley believes the company has more work to do to deliver on the benefits of a broader asset manager product.

The Pendal acquisition is assessed to have strong financial merit, along with some strategic rationale, although the broker envisages outflow and execution risks.

Forecasting "low teen" growth in earnings per share in FY24 and FY25, supported by the Pendal acquisition, Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating given the diversity of growth opportunities compared with peers. Target is reduced to $28.00 from $28.70. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $23.31 Difference: $4.69
If PPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.35, suggesting upside of 33.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPT as Accumulate (2) -

FY23 underlying net profit fell short of Ord Minnett's forecasts with the difference being higher interest and equity remuneration costs.

Perpetual is pursuing simplification to reduce costs and elevated wealth management investment is set to normalise, which suggests to the broker that future cost growth will be lower.

Net outflows in asset management are also expected to moderate and there is potential for margin expansion as flows recover and cost synergies are realised.

Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating and reduces the target to $30.50 from $33.00.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $23.31 Difference: $7.19
If PPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.35, suggesting upside of 33.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PSI as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter found the FY23 results from PSC Insurance "a very strong set of figures", with a 17.4% increase in revenue and 23% increase in net profit.

The outcome was helped by weaker Australian dollar with around 40% of earnings coming from the UK and/or US dollar denominated sectors.

The broker assesses the company has a strong growth outlook and was surprised the shares have not traded higher. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $6.47 from $6.41.

Target price is $6.47 Current Price is $4.90 Difference: $1.57
If PSI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PSQ as Overweight (1) -

Pacific Smiles pre-released FY23 results, which were in line with expectations, and with the official update no guidance was provided. At first glance Morgan Stanley notes the outlook is positive with patient fees in the year to date up 14.1%.

Overweight rating and $2 target price. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.66
If PSQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QAN as Neutral (3) -

Qantas Airways' largely pre-guided FY23 result met consensus' forecasts.

Jetstar and International staged strong performances but the broker observes this was offset by a -$200m jump in non-allocated costs. Ticket prices were respectable, moderating only slightly, says the broker.

Capital expenditure, net debt, and the buyback rose, as expected.

Neutral rating retained. Target price edges up to $6.95 from $6.90.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $6.22 Difference: $0.73
If QAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.75, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie comments Qantas Airways' reported FY23 profit before tax of $2.47bn was at the upper end of the guidance range. The airline also announced a new $500m share buy-back.

The broker is of the view the shares look heavily undervalued given plenty of indicators travel demand is poised to stay strong in the medium term.

Only marginal changes have been made to forecasts. Target remains unchanged at $7.90. Outperform. Macquarie predicts the return of a shareholders dividend of 41c in FY25.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $6.22 Difference: $1.68
If QAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.75, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QAN as Overweight (1) -

The FY23 results from Qantas Airways were in line with expectations as was the FY24 outlook. Morgan Stanley found the results hard to fault, noting demand and industry dynamics remain robust.

The balance sheet has additional upside from favourable conditions where demand remains strong and cash flow is robust. Morgan Stanley reiterates an Overweight rating and raises the target to $9.00 from $8.50. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $6.22 Difference: $2.78
If QAN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.75, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates QAN as Add (1) -

FY23 results for Qantas Airways were in line with guidance issued in May. Morgans notes confidence by management in the outlook as expressed by the announced $500m on-market share buyback, ahead of the $400m expected.

The broker considers outlook commentary was upbeat with management noting travel demand remains very strong and solid trading is evident into the 1H of FY24.

While the FY24 EBIT margin targets were reiterated, full 1H guidance will likely be issued in October/November and should be a key share price catalyst, in the analysts' view.

The target rises to $8.60 from $8.50. The Add rating is maintained on what Morgans describes as an extremely undemanding valuation.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $6.22 Difference: $2.38
If QAN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.75, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QAN as Buy (1) -

Qantas Airways' underlying profit was 1% above UBS and within guidance. Net debt was in line, remaining below management's moving target.

UBS believes the prospect of earnings growth in FY24 remains intact. Qantas reiterated that fares are dropping but revenue intakes are holding, and there's also volume growth coming, especially as international capacity returns.

Capex guidance was maintained, however Qantas' committed delivery outlook was updated to 133 aircraft over FY24-FY29. Adjusting for the 10 received in FY23, this is an increase of 44 committed aircraft over the past 12 months.

Target rises to $8.15 from $7.95, Buy retained.

Target price is $8.15 Current Price is $6.22 Difference: $1.93
If QAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.75, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QUB as Buy (1) -

FY23 results from Qube Holdings were largely in line with expectations while cash flow and the 8.1c dividend surprised to the upside. Ord Minnett observes pulling through of earnings from higher asset utilisation continues to translate to returns.

The FY24 outlook appears more cautious, largely because of higher interest costs. The broker expects the ports & bulk segment will grow earnings materially during the year, cycling lower comparables linked with weather events and project delays.

The potential of an El Nino provides some downside risk to logistics forecasts into the second half. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $3.35 from $3.61.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.41
If QUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.40, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RFF as Buy (1) -

FY23 results were slightly ahead of forecasts and, having secured a lease agreement in the first half for a 3000ha macadamia development, Bell Potter expects Rural Funds will resume growth in earnings in FY24 and beyond, following three years of consolidation.

The stock continues to trade at a material -30% discount to its market NAV and ultimately the broker does not consider this discount sustainable, although it may take time to narrow. Buy rating retained. Target edges up to $2.25 from $2.20.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.97 Difference: $0.28
If RFF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

Ramsay Health Care's FY23 result met consensus forecasts thanks to a small beat on revenue from Europe and the UK. Total capital expenditure rose to -$772m from -$733m.

But FY24 guidance was a big miss, management advising its earnings recovery would be hampered by cost inflation, rising operating expenditure in digital and data, and higher reimbursements and interest costs. Capex is also forecast to rise.

EPS forecasts are cut -19% in FY24 and -12% in FY25. Dividend forecasts also tumble.

Target price falls to $50.50 from $58. Neutral retained.

Target price is $50.50 Current Price is $48.71 Difference: $1.79
If RHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.57, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie's research report title, post yesterday's FY23 release, deserves to be highlighted today: "Near-term earnings in the ICU". Needless to say, Ramsay Health Care's FY23 release and FY24 guidance did not impress the broker.

Ramsay Health Care's margins are under pressure also because of higher interest costs. Macquarie has "materially" downgraded forecasts.

Even though balance sheet stress will be relieved if Sime Darby can be sold, the broker continues to see near term earnings constraints because of elevated costs and the need for investments.

Target price moves to $53.35 from $62.50. Neutral.

Target price is $53.35 Current Price is $48.71 Difference: $4.64
If RHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.57, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

FY23 results missed expectations and margin recovery is now expected to be slower. Morgan Stanley observes challenges to the system have been emphasised by the pandemic and this is evident in the FY24 outlook.

Ramsay Health Care has indicated the operating environment has been more inconsistent than previously anticipated. Margin recovery continues to be dampened by labour shortages that restrict capacity utilisation.

Despite downgrading estimates, the broker believes expectations are now more reasonable and further downside in the near term to earnings is unlikely.

As the stock is now trading close to its bear case-weighted price target of $49.60, reduced from $53.60, the rating is upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $49.60 Current Price is $48.71 Difference: $0.89
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.57, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RHC as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses mixed FY23 results for Ramsay Health Care with margins and profits lagging while there were revenue gains across all regions. The target is reduced to $66.40 from $75.57. Add.

Earnings improved in Australia, Asia and for acute hospitals in the UK, offset by inflationary pressures for Elysium and in the EU, explain the analysts.

Management guided to FY24 revenue growth in the mid-single digits.

The broker anticipates an improving earnings trajectory as indicated by improving volumes and productivity. However, a full recovery in near-term operating leverage is being hampered by inflation, digital/data investments and higher funding costs.

Target price is $66.40 Current Price is $48.71 Difference: $17.69
If RHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.57, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RRL as Buy (1) -

Regis Resources reported a FY23 financial result that was in line with Bell Potter's expectations. There were distortions from non-cash inventory adjustments relating to the value of historically mined stockpiles that affected the EBITDA and net profit lines.

Guidance for FY24 has been retained at 415-455,000 ounces at AISC of $1995-2315/oz. The broker suspects the stock may become an appealing corporate target, given the fundamental outlook and the current M&A environment, and retains a Buy rating with a $2.26 target.

Target price is $2.26 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.735
If RRL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Sell (5) -

Regis Resources' FY23 result fell -2% shy of consensus but met Citi's expectations. No dividend was declared, management citing pending capital commitments to McPhillamys, and the broker doubts a dividend will be paid in FY24.

All up, the company recorded a statutory loss of -$24m after logging -$30m in inventory write-downs to its stock pile and a 31% jump in depreciation and amortisation charges.

Sell rating retained. Target price falls to $1.20 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: minus $0.325 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

Regis Resources' FY23 result negatively surprised with an unexpected -$30m inventory charge, but underlying, Macquarie explains, the performance was in line with expectations.

Net debt proved worse too, due to higher leases. Another negative surprise was the absence of any dividend, with the company referring to its funding strategy for McPhillamys. The broker had expected a 1c final dividend.

Macquarie sees future catalysts around further studies into, and ultimately the FID, for McPhillamys (Q4 FY24).

Sales and revenues met forecasts. No change was made to FY24 guidance.  Target unchanged at $2.30. Outperform. Forecast losses for FY24 have deepened and no dividends are anticipated for both FY24 and FY25.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.775
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RRL as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Due to a FY23 realignment of the production and cost profile, Morgans lowers its target price for Regis Resources to $1.74 from $1.87 and upgrades its rating to Add from Hold. 

The company posted a 10.4% rise in earnings compared to FY22, while total gold production of 458 koz at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $1,805/oz was broadly in line with consensus.

Management anticipates improvements in cashflows as low-price hedges roll off. The hedge book reduced by -100koz to 120koz and is on track to be closed out by the end of FY24, notes the analyst.

Target price is $1.74 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.215
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

South32's FY23 result met consensus forecasts but cash conversion and net debt disappointed. The result included a -US$1.3bn non-cash impairment for Hermosa's Taylor deposit.

Management guided to rising unit costs in FY24, with cost inflation, rising capital expenditure and lower earnings combining to squeeze margins. FY24 EPS forecasts are halved.

Looking further ahead, management guided to a modest rise in FY25 production. South32 expanded its buyback to US$2.3bn from US$2.25bn.

Neutral rating retained, the broker observing the company is at an awkward state of the cycle, commodity prices not having kept pace with capex. Target price falls to $3.80 from $4.05.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $0.14
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.19, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie found South32's FY23 report a rather mixed affair, but with a positive surprise via the declared dividend. FY24 cost guidance proved worse than anticipated.

With higher costs to dominate the outlook, earnings estimates have been pared back. South32 also took a noncash impairment for Hermosa (Taylor deposit) of -US$1.3bn.

Higher costs are also responsible for the broker pulling back its rating to Neutral from Outperform. Earnings estimates have received quite the sizable haircut.

Target price has been cut to $3.60 from $4.40.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.19, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

South32 posted a FY23 result that was in line. Inflationary pressures remain in FY24, reflected in cost guidance, although Morgan Stanley is excited by the expansion opportunity at Sierra Gorda which has a long-life resource that could sustain the site for many years.

The broker eagerly awaits the FID on the fourth grinding line at Sierra Gorda where upside potential could come from higher recoveries.

FY24 production guidance has been maintained except for a slight downgrade at Illawarra coal because of four plant longwall moves.

The Overweight rating is maintained. Target is $4.15. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $0.49
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.19, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

South32's results and operational performance in FY23 were broadly in line with UBS. Guidance mildly disappointed, with FY24 unit costs higher than expected and volumes trimmed in some divisions.

Overall the company is performing well operationally, the broker suggests, and remains disciplined with capital allocation, balancing cash returns to shareholders (dividends & buyback) with organic growth.

UBS sees upside risk to South32's commodity basket and robust volume growth near/medium-term. Higher opex leads to a target fall to $4.30 from $4.50, Buy retained.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $0.64
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.19, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as Outperform (1) -

St Barbara's FY23 featured the removal of discontinued operations and, as expected, no dividend for shareholders. We'll have to assume Macquarie didn't see much in terms of surprises either way as its estimates have remained largely unchanged.

EPS estimates have been reduced by -1% for the years ahead but this is due an increased share count.

Plenty of catalysts on the horizon with the broker pointing at permitting and approvals for Atlantic and the FMS PFS due in November.

Target 29c (unchanged). Outperform.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.095
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.47, suggesting upside of 163.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Buy (1) -

Stockland's FY23 result outpaced consensus and Citi's forecasts, while the top end of FY24 guidance just met consensus.

Citi raises its forecasts to reflect the beat but remains cautious in the near term, observing a negative second half skew in residential earnings and forecasting lower land lease margins in FY24 due to subdued growth in settlements. Debt costs are on the rise, says the broker.

On the upside, the company's residential volume outlook beat consensus and the broker. Citi expects strong medium-term growth in volumes, supported by migration and low supply. Commercial is also forecast to improve.

Buy rating retained on strong fundamentals. Target price rises to $5 from $4.60.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.22 Difference: $0.78
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.50, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Stockland's FY23 surprised positively with funds from operations (FFO) exceeding Macquarie's forecast by 3%. FY24 guidance proved in line as management predicts greater resi settlements will offset delays in logistics development.

Macquarie is more circumspect about resi settlements in the year ahead, but the broker highlights further out it retains a positive view. The broker requires more evidence of successful execution and sticks with its Neutral rating in the meantime.

To vindicate its own caution, Macquarie points out Stockland has a relatively high exposure to first time home buyers. Only marginal adjustments have been made to forecasts.

Target rises to $4.31 from $4.18.

Target price is $4.31 Current Price is $4.22 Difference: $0.09
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.50, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24: