Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley reminds investors Ampol's Lytton Refinery generates around 40% of the company’s earnings (EBITDA). As a result, the company’s enterprise value is correlated with the Asia Minas Crude Oil 211 Crack Spread.

In research issued yesterday, the broker displayed a graph of the company’s market cap versus the crack spread, with both lines showing a high level of correlation. 

The same correlation is evident for Viva Energy, as its Geelong Refinery generates around 50% of that company’s earnings.

Target 30.14. Equal-weight. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $30.14 Current Price is $31.07 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target).
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.17, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Citi assesses Pixel United's revenue from bookings data for February 2023 and observes a levelling out, and RAID bookings fell -9%.

On the upside, Social Casino and Aristocrat's titles continued their solid run.

Buy rating and $41.20 target price retained.

Target price is $41.20 Current Price is $35.57 Difference: $5.63
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.26, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

While still expecting the US$ gold price will move lower over 2023, Macquarie raises its price forecasts across 2023 to 2026 by 12%, 8%, 6% and 9%, respectively. The 2027 forecast is unchanged, as is the US$1,500/oz long-term price estimate.

These changes drive meaningful EPS upgrades for Aurelia Metals and the broker's target rises to 23c from 20c. Outperform.

Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.12
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 109% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett assesses Australian banks in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank failure and, for now, makes no changes to forecasts, believing it is premature to consider the collapse a systemic issue given SVB's metrics suggest its problems may have been unique.

Ripples will be felt over time, but in terms of the banking system, US regulators have created a Bank Term Funding Program to help banks through liquidity crises like the one experienced by SVB, so that they will not be forced to liquidate at a time when assets have lost their values during the journey to maturity.

Back onshore, the broker points out major differences with local banks, the first being a lower concentration of deposit sizes comprising residential and business loans (SVB's assets were skewed to businesses which resulted in big lumpy withdrawals); and that Australian banks are mainly invested in mortgages and corporate debt (unlike SVB, which held mainly treasuries and other securities). 

Also, Ord Minnett observes about 47% of SVB's deposits were non-interest bearing (meaning it's easy to switch), compared with 16% for Commonwealth Bank.

Accumulate rating and $31 target price retained for ANZ Bank.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $23.39 Difference: $7.61
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.19, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APM as Overweight (1) -

FY24 earnings have been de-risked, according to Morgan Stanley (in research issued yesterday), after APM Human Services International announced contract wins in the US, providing a combined $150m/year of revenue.

The analyst believes these wins demonstrate the company's competitive differentiation in driving outcomes and alleviates concern over the quality of recent M&A activity.

The Overweight rating and target price of $3.00 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.82
If APM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting upside of 57.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APM as Buy (1) -

Contract wins in North America indicate the positive light in which APM Human Services International is held in the US and Canada, noted UBS, in research issued yesterday.

The contracts will generate $150m per year and help de-risk the earnings growth profile in FY24, believes the analyst. The company is considered to be well placed for further contract wins.

No changes are made to the broker’s forecasts (at this point) and the $3.75 target is retained. Buy.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $1.57
If APM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting upside of 57.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BEN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett assesses Australian banks in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank failure and, for now, makes no changes to forecasts, believing it is premature to consider the collapse a systemic issue given SVB's metrics suggest its problems may have been unique.

Ripples will be felt over time, but in terms of the banking system, US regulators have created a Bank Term Funding Program to help banks through liquidity crises like the one experienced by SVB, so that they will not be forced to liquidate at a time when assets have lost their values during the journey to maturity.

Back onshore, the broker points out major differences with local banks, the first being a lower concentration of deposit sizes comprising residential and business loans (SVB's assets were skewed to businesses which resulted in big lumpy withdrawals); and that Australian banks are mainly invested in mortgages and corporate debt (unlike SVB, which held mainly treasuries and other securities). 

Also, Ord Minnett observes about 47% of SVB's deposits were non-interest bearing (meaning its easy to switch), compared with 16% for  Commonwealth Bank.

Hold rating and $10.20 target price retained for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $9.04 Difference: $1.16
If BEN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.37, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Outperform (1) -

A largely in-line first half result from Boss Energy, says Macquarie. The broker notes Boss Energy is pre-revenue, with first production expected at the end of the calendar year. 

With a cash position of $115.6m and combined liquid assets of $200m, as of the end of the first half, Macquarie finds the company well positioned for the development and restart of its Honeymoon asset. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $3.20 are retained.

This report was issued March 13, 2023.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: $0.91
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOQ as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett assesses Australian banks in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank failure and, for now, makes no changes to forecasts, believing it is premature to consider the collapse a systemic issue given SVB's metrics suggest its problems may have been unique.

Ripples will be felt over time, but in terms of the banking system, US regulators have created a Bank Term Funding Program to help banks through liquidity crises like the one experienced by SVB, so that they will not be forced to liquidate at a time when assets have lost their values during the journey to maturity.

Back onshore, the broker points out major differences with local banks, the first being a lower concentration of deposit sizes comprising residential and business loans (SVB's assets were skewed to businesses which resulted in big lumpy withdrawals); and that Australian banks are mainly invested in mortgages and corporate debt (unlike SVB, which held mainly treasuries and other securities). 

Also, Ord Minnett observes about 47% of SVB's deposits were non-interest bearing (meaning its easy to switch), compared with 16% for  Commonwealth Bank.

Accumulate rating and $8.80 target price retained for Bank of Queensland.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $2.14
If BOQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.63, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett assesses Australian banks in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank failure and, for now, makes no changes to forecasts, believing it is premature to consider the collapse a systemic issue given SVB's metrics suggest its problems may have been unique.

Ripples will be felt over time, but in terms of the banking system, US regulators have created a Bank Term Funding Program to help banks through liquidity crises like the one experienced by SVB, so that they will not be forced to liquidate at a time when assets have lost their values during the journey to maturity.

Back onshore, the broker points out major differences with local banks, the first being a lower concentration of deposit sizes comprising residential and business loans (SVB's assets were skewed to businesses which resulted in big lumpy withdrawals); and that Australian banks are mainly invested in mortgages and corporate debt (unlike SVB, which held mainly treasuries and other securities).

Also, Ord Minnett observes about 47% of SVB's deposits were non-interest bearing (meaning its easy to switch), compared with 16% for Commonwealth Bank.

Hold rating and $87 target price retained.

Target price is $87.00 Current Price is $95.12 Difference: minus $8.12 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.66, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Underperform (5) -

Capricorn Metals' 1H profit was solid and 4% better than Macquarie expected due to lower exploration expenses and net debt  of $17.8m was in line.

Management maintained guidance for FY23 production and all-in sustaining costs (AISC). The analyst expects FY23 AISC to be at the top-end of the guidance range due to increased open pit movements in the 2H.

The broker increases its FY23 EPS estimate by 3% and leaves the $4.70 target price and Underperform rating unchanged.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: $0.34
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNB as Outperform (1) -

Lower than expected exploration expenditure saw Carnaby Resources deliver a -$5.1m first half loss, compared to Macquarie’s expected -$6.0m. 

The company is in the process of a 40,000m drilling program at its Greater Duchess asset, and has reported some “stellar” intersections. Macquarie expects delivery of a maiden resource for the asset is the company’s main upcoming catalyst, expected in the second quarter, which it anticipates could be up to 300,000 tonnes of copper. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $1.70 are retained.

This report was issued March 13, 2023. 

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.595
If CNB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ECX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses 4Q results for Custom Fleet, a peer of Eclipx Group, reflect ongoing pandemic impacts with end-of-lease (EOL) income above pre-pandemic levels and vehicle supply constrained.

The broker retains its Outperform rating and $2.28 target for Eclipx Group, noting trends evident in the Custom Fleet results are consistent with those experience by both Eclipx and other A&NZ auto finance companies.

Target price is $2.28 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.17
If ECX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ECX as Overweight (1) -

In the wake of the February reporting season, Eclipx Group features as a key pick by Morgan Stanley in the small-to-mid-cap space, even though the company is yet to report, due to a September year end.

In research issued yesterday, the broker noted a clear pattern in both the Australian and US reporting seasons of strength in auto demand and resilient used car pricing. It's felt Eclipx Group's results, due in early-May, will benefit from similar themes.

Clarity on earnings and the demand outlook has the potential to de-risk FY23 earnings and allow additional buybacks, suggest the analysts.

The Overweight rating and $2.70 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.59
If ECX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Sell (5) -

Evolution Mining's mining operations at Ernest Henry have been put on hold since March due to surface water ingress into the underground sector for roughly six weeks.

Citi estimates it could have a -$40m affect on cash flows.

FY23 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts are trimmed. Ernest Henry represents 35% to 40% of Citi's operational EBITDA, and the broker now expects the company will miss FY23 guidance, but the company has yet to issue advise of a change.

Sell rating retained. Target price eases to $2.80 from $2.90.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie leaves its $2.80 target for Evolution Mining unchanged, despite the news heavy rain has led to a suspension of mining at its Ernest Henry mine for around six weeks.

The broker now expects a minor FY23 guidance miss and reduces its FY23 production expectations by -10koz and lifts its all-in sustaining-cost (AISC) forecast by -$100/oz. Underperform.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Evolution Mining's Ernest Henry mine has been suspended (since March 8) due to water ingress from poor weather on its underground mining operations, and is expected to remain so for another six weeks.

Ord Minnett revises estimates to account for the delay and an expects a more conservative performance at Mt Rawdon after recent rainfall. The broker expects the company will miss all-in-sustaining cost guidance.

The broker says the focus now shifts to the balance sheet, and raises its gearing assumption to 33%, suspecting gearing could exceed 35%.

Hold rating retained. Target price falls -7% to $2.85 from $3.05.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.05
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GL1 as Outperform (1) -

Global Lithium has released results of its 2022 drilling program, with Macquarie finding some of the latest results to reveal impressive high-grade intersections with grades around 50% higher than resource. 

While Macquarie expects an upgrade to the resource estimate is likely, the broker has lowered its earnings forecasts to account for expected equity dilution in relation to funding assumptions for Manna. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.60 from $3.90.

This report was issued March 13, 2023. 

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $2.17
If GL1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 152% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GNC as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett upgrades its rating for GrainCorp to Hold from Lighten on valuation after a a recent share price fall.

No changes are made to the broker's forecasts and the $6.70 target is maintained.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $7.47 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target).
If GNC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.80, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IEL as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse initiates coverage on IDP Education with an Outperform rating and $35.50 target price.

The company's brand, scale, digital footprint and vertical integration with IELTS provides a lower cost of student acquisition relative to smaller placement agencies, explains Credit Suisse.

IELTS is the International English Language Testing System.

The broker also like the company's counter cyclical earnings and structural market growth drivers. Student mobility is set to move higher over the longer term due to rising middle class wealth, a preference for English-based education and supportive government policies. 

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $28.07 Difference: $7.43
If IEL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.65, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LM8 as Outperform (1) -

A first half loss of -$11.5m from Lunnon Metals was steeper than the -$10.3m loss Macquarie had expected, which was largely attributed to differences in exploration expenditure, but cash flows and closing cash balance were in line. 

In addition to a number of updates expected from Lunnon Metals in coming months, including a resource update from its Warren asset and a maiden reserve from Baker, the company announced commencement of a seismic trail at Silver-Lake and Fisher.

The Outperform rating and target price of $1.30 are retained.

This report was issued March 13, 2023. 

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: $0.315
If LM8 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MQG as Buy (1) -

With its US operations currently accounting for 38% of total operating profit for Macquarie Group, UBS feels the market continues to offer upside for the company. The broker highlighted its US business has been supportive of significant gains made by the company over the last two years, with strategic acquisitions providing scale.

The broker continues to see Macquarie Group as an attractive investment opportunity, particularly for domestic investors. 

The Buy rating and target price of $211.00 are retained.

Target price is $211.00 Current Price is $182.13 Difference: $28.87
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $199.13, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett assesses Australian banks in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank failure and, for now, makes no changes to forecasts, believing it is premature to consider the collapse a systemic issue given SVB's metrics suggest its problems may have been unique.

Ripples will be felt over time, but in terms of the banking system, US regulators have created a Bank Term Funding Program to help banks through liquidity crises like the one experienced by SVB, so that they will not be forced to liquidate at a time when assets have lost their values during the journey to maturity.

Back onshore, the broker points out major differences with local banks, the first being a lower concentration of deposit sizes comprising residential and business loans (SVB's assets were skewed to businesses which resulted in big lumpy withdrawals); and that Australian banks are mainly invested in mortgages and corporate debt (unlike SVB, which held mainly treasuries and other securities). 

Also, Ord Minnett observes about 47% of SVB's deposits were non-interest bearing (meaning its easy to switch), compared with 16% for  Commonwealth Bank.

Hold rating and $30 target price retained for National Australia Bank.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $28.54 Difference: $1.46
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.20, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie suggests the entry by nib Holdings entry into the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) market will provide a growth opportunity and diversification benefits.

While the deployment of the company's recent $158m capital raise into NDIS plan management acquisitions has a minimal impact on the broker's FY24 EPS forecast, it does provide optionality.

The $7.55 target and Neutral rating are unchanged.

Target price is $7.55 Current Price is $7.04 Difference: $0.51
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SIG as Hold (3) -

Sigma Healthcare expects to receive around $44m for the sale of its hospital distribution business, which should be completed by March 31. 

Ord Minnett considers the decision to exit the business makes strategic sense given its lack of scale in the sector. It's felt management may now focus on building scale in the higher-margin core pharmacy wholesale and third-party logistics business.

Any negative valuation effect from the sale in the analyst's financial model is offset by the sale proceeds and the 63c target is retained. The Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.63 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting downside of -15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Following day two of Treasury Wine Estates' investor day, UBS noted (in research issued yesterday) 2025 targets are on track and growth options are evident across all divisions.

The analyst feels premiumisation will be a driver in time, with earnings (EBITS) margins in the high teens achievable from the current portfolio.

Separately, the broker gained increased confidence Treasury is well placed in the fastest growing US wine category of luxury, after the release of strong 2Q earnings by US peer The Duckhorn Portfolio.

This luxury wine retailer reiterated the strength of the over US$15/bottle price point.

The Buy rating and $15 target are unchanged.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.97 Difference: $2.03
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.27, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley reminds investors Viva Energy's Geelong Refinery generates around 50% of the company’s earnings (EBITDA). As a result, the company’s enterprise value is correlated with the Asia Minas Crude Oil 211 Crack Spread.

In research issued yesterday, the broker displayed a graph of the company’s market cap versus the crack spread, with both lines showing a high level of correlation. 

The same correlation is evident for Ampol, as its Lytton Refinery generates around 40% of the company’s earnings.

Equal-weight. Target $2.99. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $2.99 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.34, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WBC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett assesses Australian banks in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank failure and, for now, makes no changes to forecasts, believing it is premature to consider the collapse a systemic issue given SVB's metrics suggest its problems may have been unique.

Ripples will be felt over time, but in terms of the banking system, US regulators have created a Bank Term Funding Program to help banks through liquidity crises like the one experienced by SVB, so that they will not be forced to liquidate at a time when assets have lost their values during the journey to maturity.

Back onshore, the broker points out major differences with local banks, the first being a lower concentration of deposit sizes comprising residential and business loans (SVB's assets were skewed to businesses which resulted in big lumpy withdrawals); and that Australian banks are mainly invested in mortgages and corporate debt (unlike SVB, which held mainly treasuries and other securities). 

Also, Ord Minnett observes about 47% of SVB's deposits were non-interest bearing (meaning its easy to switch), compared with 16% for  Commonwealth Bank

Accumulate rating and $29 target price retained for Westpac.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $21.49 Difference: $7.51
If WBC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.20, suggesting upside of 22.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -

Given its relatively positive view on the consumer, Citi has lifted its earnings forecasts for Wesfarmers by 1-3% through to FY24. 

The Sell rating and target price of $43.00 are retained.

This report was issued March 13, 2023. 

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $49.50 Difference: minus $6.5 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $50.20, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WOW as Buy (1) -

Given its relatively positive view on the consumer, Citi has made minor changes of less than -1% to its earnings forecasts for Woolworths Group. 

The Buy rating and target price of $42.20 are retained.

This report was issued March 13, 2023.

Target price is $42.20 Current Price is $36.80 Difference: $5.4
If WOW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.21, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources