Australian Broker Call
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February 14, 2018
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
Last Updated: 12:29 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| BLD - | BORAL | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse | ||
| CGF - | CHALLENGER | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
| COH - | COCHLEAR | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
| Upgrade to Hold from Reduce | Morgans | ||
| SGF - | SG FLEET | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| TCL - | TRANSURBAN GROUP | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Deutsche Bank |
Overnight Price: $2.14
Morgans rates AVN as Add (1) -
FY18 guidance for 2-3% growth was reiterated with the first half result, which incorporates recent asset sales. Morgans believes the company is well placed to navigate challenges given low vacancy rates and incentives.
Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.46 from $2.47.
Target price is $2.46 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: $0.32
If AVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.40, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.30 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of -53.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.30 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of 0.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $4.59
Credit Suisse rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -
First half results beat Credit Suisse estimates, mainly because of lower depreciation costs in the bulks segment. In response to the QCA UT5 decision, the company plans to change its operating and maintenance process, even though it believes this will reduce the efficiency and capacity of the supply chain.
While the draft UT5 decision is tough, Credit Suisse believes prioritising profitability over customer service is a high risk strategy. The network issue is likely to overhang the stock until the end of the year, the broker suspects.
Neutral rating and $4.75 target maintained.
Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.59 Difference: $0.16
If AZJ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.20 cents and EPS of 27.37 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.70 cents and EPS of 26.33 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.9, implying annual growth of -1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates AZJ as Re-initiation with Sell (5) -
Following a hiatus of circa ten months, Deutsche Bank has re-initiated coverage with a Sell rating (up until April last year the rating was Hold). The interim result is labeled "largely in-line".
Price target is $4.25 (compared with $5.10 last year). Deutsche Bank sees better value in either Sydney Airport ((SYD)) or Macquarie Atlas Group ((MQA)) locally, or in the company's peers in the USA.
In the background, the analysts note the company's transformation program remains "on track", plus the company has announced a $300m share buyback.
Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.59 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.9, implying annual growth of -1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.43
Citi rates BLD as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
Citi has passed no comment on Boral's actual result, rather concentrating on FY guidance. The broker has lifted EPS (and subsequently DPS) forecasts on the back of a reduced US tax rate, and this leads to a target increase to $7.32 from $6.94 and an upgrade to Neutral.
However, Citi has left its before-tax earnings forecasts unchanged post result, and notes the underlying performance in the business featured US margins going backwards despite a highly supportive construction environment. Where is the leverage? the broker asks.
Target price is $7.32 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.06, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.50 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of 33.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 45.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.6, implying annual growth of 24.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates BLD as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
First half results were below Credit Suisse forecasts, as the maiden North American result disappointed. The company has pointed to softer market growth and operating issues related to manufacturing integration and fly ash supply.
The broker does not believe either of these is a long-term concern, but the earnings outcome requires a re-basing of near-term forecasts. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to $7.70 from $7.30.
Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $0.27
If BLD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.06, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 40.65 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of 33.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.92 cents and EPS of 46.62 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.6, implying annual growth of 24.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates BLD as Buy (1) -
Boral's interim report was a case of Australia strong, with a stumble in North America, comments Deutsche Bank. The latter is seen as largely caused by one-offs.
Having said so, the broker remains a little bit concerned about reduced fly ash margins and ongoing weakness from Meridian Brick. In Australia, Deutsche Bank remains confident that April 2018 price increases will be achieved, offsetting rising costs for the local operations.
Buy rating retained. Price target moves to $8.68 from $8.54.
Target price is $8.68 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $1.25
If BLD meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.06, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of 33.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.6, implying annual growth of 24.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BLD as Outperform (1) -
First half net profit was ahead of Macquarie's expectations, on the back of tax benefits. Australia stood out, benefiting from fine weather.
While an upgrade to synergy targets at Headwaters was not forthcoming, Macquarie observes the company remains confident about integration. The broker envisages a gradual de-risking of the acquisition which is key to a re-rating of the stock.
Outperform maintained. Target rises to $8.50 from $8.25.
Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $1.07
If BLD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.06, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.50 cents and EPS of 40.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of 33.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 50.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.6, implying annual growth of 24.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates BLD as Overweight (1) -
First half results were ahead of Morgan Stanley's expectations. Australia's infrastructure boom is coinciding with strong housing construction and boosting earnings.
While problems in North America are front of mind for investors, the broker suggests the issues are well in hand and the delivery of synergies appears on track.
Overweight rating. $8.50 target. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $1.07
If BLD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.06, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of 33.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.6, implying annual growth of 24.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates BLD as Accumulate (2) -
First half net profit was ahead of Ord Minnett's estimates. Underlying EBIT was below forecasts as North America disappointed. The broker believes, with the benefit of hindsight, that the teething issues in North America should have been anticipated, given the size of Headwaters and the complexity of integrating it with Boral.
The broker projects further, less severe, headwinds in the second half before undisrupted growth from FY19. Accumulate rating maintained. Target reduced to $8.20 from $8.50.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $0.77
If BLD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.06, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of 33.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.6, implying annual growth of 24.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CGF CHALLENGER LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $12.45
Citi rates CGF as Neutral (3) -
In the wake of Challenger's result, the broker has cut its earnings forecast on a first half mark-to-market but also because of increased capital intensity. This leads to a target cut to $13.75 from $14.30.
A greater allocation to listed property and infrastructure investment is behind increased capital intensity. The broker suggests part of this will be permanent, and part temporary, with Challenger able to shift to unlisted real assets to lower intensity.
Earnings growth looks attractive but valuation keeps the broker on Neutral.
Target price is $13.75 Current Price is $12.45 Difference: $1.3
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.37, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 35.50 cents and EPS of 67.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.6, implying annual growth of -7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 38.50 cents and EPS of 76.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.2, implying annual growth of 8.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CGF as Neutral (3) -
First half results were in line with Credit Suisse estimates. FY18 guidance is reaffirmed. The broker supports the company's strategy but its estimates already factor in net book growth in the mid teens in FY18-19 and a modest further decline in margin.
This leaves less scope for upside at the current valuation. Neutral rating maintained. Target is $13.20.
Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $12.45 Difference: $0.75
If CGF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.37, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.6, implying annual growth of -7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.2, implying annual growth of 8.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CGF as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
First half results were broadly in line with Macquarie. The broker continues to like the earnings growth profile and longer-term structural tailwinds on offer. Macquarie transfers coverage to another analyst and considers the stock fully valued at current multiples.
While credit conditions remain benign, and there are no quality issues, the broker does observe the risk-adjusted return has narrowed. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is lowered to $12.95 from $13.44.
Target price is $12.95 Current Price is $12.45 Difference: $0.5
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.37, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 35.50 cents and EPS of 67.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.6, implying annual growth of -7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 73.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.2, implying annual growth of 8.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley suggests the market does not fully appreciate the capital demands that stem from the shift in business mix, margin headwinds and cyclical risks.
Nevertheless, the broker considers concerns regarding capital in the first half were misplaced, and the results were in line with expectations.
Morgan Stanley does not believe Challenger generates sufficient risk-adjusted returns in excess of the cost of capital to justify its share price and maintains an Underweight rating. Target is $11.50. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $12.45 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.37, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.6, implying annual growth of -7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 38.40 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.2, implying annual growth of 8.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates CGF as Hold (3) -
First half net profit was in line with expectations. Morgans found numerous positives and the main weakness was a fall in the PCA capital ratio over the half-year.
Management has pointed to the primary driver being increasing capital intensity, as excess capital was deployed into listed assets. This leads the broker to question the company's ability to self-fund its growth.
Morgans reduces FY18 and FY19 estimates for earnings per share by -2-5%. Hold maintained. Target reduced to $12.03 from $12.49.
Target price is $12.03 Current Price is $12.45 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.37, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 35.60 cents and EPS of 64.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.6, implying annual growth of -7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 39.10 cents and EPS of 69.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.2, implying annual growth of 8.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CGF as Lighten (4) -
First half profit was ahead of Ord Minnett estimates because deployment of capital into risk assets was greater than expected.
The broker is more cautious about the effects of de-risking assets versus volume growth and lowers earnings estimates accordingly.
Ord Minnett considers the stock expensive and maintains a Lighten rating, reducing the target to $9.70 from $9.90.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $12.45 Difference: minus $2.75 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.37, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.6, implying annual growth of -7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.2, implying annual growth of 8.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CGF as Neutral (3) -
First half earnings were in line with UBS estimates. Headwinds are expected to persist and further asset mix offsets are considered unlikely, given a more constrained capital position.
The broker envisages ongoing margin erosion that will temper earnings leverage. Neutral maintained. Target reduced to $12.90 from $13.60.
Target price is $12.90 Current Price is $12.45 Difference: $0.45
If CGF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.37, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.6, implying annual growth of -7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.2, implying annual growth of 8.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $176.61
Citi rates COH as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
Cochlear posted a slight miss against Citi's forecast but this can be explained by investment in growth and lumpy emerging markets. The N7 processor will drive second half revenue and profit growth, the broker suggests.
On the wider scale, Citi believes there are very good prospects for growth from the company's world's-best portfolio of products. A 30x forward PE looks expensive but long run growth potential is very rare and earnings forecast justify a high multiple.
The recent share price decline prompts an upgrade to Neutral. Target rises to $175 from $160.
Target price is $175.00 Current Price is $176.61 Difference: minus $1.61 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $159.66, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 308.00 cents and EPS of 449.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 432.1, implying annual growth of 10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 306.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 362.00 cents and EPS of 527.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 495.3, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 347.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates COH as Neutral (3) -
First half results were below Credit Suisse forecasts. Management has reaffirmed FY18 guidance of $240-250m.
The broker notes market share gains have been affected by volatility in the tender market which caused the weakness in unit sales growth in the half year.
Rating is Neutral. Target is raised to $161.00 from $142.50.
Target price is $161.00 Current Price is $176.61 Difference: minus $15.61 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $159.66, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 304.00 cents and EPS of 425.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 432.1, implying annual growth of 10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 306.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 344.00 cents and EPS of 482.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 495.3, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 347.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates COH as Underperform (5) -
First half results were below Macquarie's forecasts because of lower cochlear implant unit sales. Growth in developed markets was robust but the impact of reduced unit sales in emerging markets was noted, driven largely by the timing of tenders volumes.
The current share price implies ongoing gains and, hence, unit sales growth, which runs ahead of Macquarie's forecasts out to FY22. Limited room is envisaged for earnings disappointment and an Underperform rating is maintained. Target reduced to $160 from $161.
Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $176.61 Difference: minus $16.61 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $159.66, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 308.70 cents and EPS of 427.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 432.1, implying annual growth of 10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 306.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 334.70 cents and EPS of 478.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 495.3, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 347.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates COH as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley was disappointed with the unit growth rate in the first half but suggests much of this related to the timing of tenders. The broker believes momentum is unaffected, given the unit growth in the US and Western Europe of 15% and 9% respectively.
Equal-weight rating, In-Line industry view. Target is raised to $160 from $158.
Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $176.61 Difference: minus $16.61 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $159.66, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 308.60 cents and EPS of 434.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 432.1, implying annual growth of 10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 306.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 365.20 cents and EPS of 522.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 495.3, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 347.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates COH as Upgrade to Hold from Reduce (3) -
First half results were broadly in line with Morgans although the headline numbers were underwhelming. Unit growth was modest, affected by the timing of tenders, the broker believes.
Morgans continues to question the transition to a service-oriented model and remains cautious about the roll out of the N7 sound processor.
The broker was hoping the results would provide more understanding regarding the viability of the new strategy. Guidance appears achievable, and on this basis the broker upgrades to Hold from Reduce. Target is raised to $153.60 from $131.30.
Target price is $153.60 Current Price is $176.61 Difference: minus $23.01 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $159.66, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 299.00 cents and EPS of 428.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 432.1, implying annual growth of 10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 306.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 333.00 cents and EPS of 477.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 495.3, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 347.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates COH as Lighten (4) -
First half net profit fell short of Ord Minnett estimates. The broker believes the company has managed its launch of the N7 sound processor well, gaining market share. This is expected to continue in the second half, and a strong pick up in unit volumes and upgrade sales is considered likely.
Nevertheless, the broker remains cautious on valuation and retains a Lighten rating. Target is raised to $158 from $157.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $158.00 Current Price is $176.61 Difference: minus $18.61 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $159.66, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 309.00 cents and EPS of 432.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 432.1, implying annual growth of 10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 306.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 343.00 cents and EPS of 488.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 495.3, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 347.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates COH as Sell (5) -
Implant sales declined -2% in the first half, the first decline since FY15. Emerging market weakness more than offset strong US and Western European growth, UBS observes. Services remain robust.
UBS believes investors were happy to look through transient issues especially given net profit guidance for FY18 of $240-250m. Sell rating maintained, as the broker struggles with the valuation. Target rises to $150 from $138.
Target price is $150.00 Current Price is $176.61 Difference: minus $26.61 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $159.66, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 306.00 cents and EPS of 429.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 432.1, implying annual growth of 10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 306.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 351.00 cents and EPS of 493.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 495.3, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 347.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DMP DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $45.32
Citi rates DMP as Sell (5) -
In an initial response to today's released interim report, Citi analysts note, underlying, Domino's Pizza performance missed management's own guidance, with Japan and Europe in particular disappointing.
A higher than expected dividend would signal management is confident in achieving full year growth, the analysts surmise. Citi suggests market consensus is likely to drop by -2-5% post the release. Target $41.60. Sell.
Target price is $41.60 Current Price is $45.32 Difference: minus $3.72 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $48.97, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 109.50 cents and EPS of 164.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.1, implying annual growth of 40.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 133.80 cents and EPS of 196.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 200.2, implying annual growth of 22.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
EXP EXPERIENCE CO LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $0.76
Ord Minnett rates EXP as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett estimates are largely unchanged in the wake of the first half result, which was in line with expectations. The broker notes skydiving was affected by a decline in revenue per jump but improvement is expected in the second half.
Meanwhile, the recent acquisitions appear on track and performing in line with management expectations. Buy rating. Target reduced to $1.00 from $1.02.
Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.24
If EXP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.90 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 1.20 cents and EPS of 4.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FBU FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $6.32
Citi rates FBU as Neutral (3) -
Shareholders might be extra-nervous in the wake of the trading halt and management acknowledging the company is now in breach of at least one debt covenant.
Citi analysts take the view that Fletcher Building has been under continual strategic review for the last several years. They expect investors may prefer the certainty created by an equity capital raising.
Target price NZ$8. Neutral rating retained.
Current Price is $6.32. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 38.35 cents and EPS of 40.88 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 40.22 cents and EPS of 60.61 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.2, implying annual growth of 36.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates FBU as Overweight (1) -
Construction losses have been revised up to NZ$660m for FY18, substantially more than Morgan Stanley expected. While no equity is being raised, thus avoiding dilution, the update does not provide the finality the broker believes the market is looking for.
Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley envisages value for investors that are able to look through the uncertainty and short-term weakness.
Overweight. Target is NZ$8.50. Industry view is: Cautious.
Current Price is $6.32. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.59 cents and EPS of 40.58 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 38.14 cents and EPS of 54.88 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.2, implying annual growth of 36.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GBT GBST HOLDINGS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $2.25
Deutsche Bank rates GBT as Buy (1) -
It appears the interim report pleased Deutsche Bank analysts, if only because earnings are exhibiting signs of stabilising. Also, management reiterated FY18 guidance.
The analysts believe earnings quality and free cash flow were both "strong". And then there were a number of new contract wins. On minimal adjustments to forecasts, price target lifts to $2.80 from $2.60. Buy rating retained.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.55
If GBT meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 34.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of -4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of 12.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates GBT as Add (1) -
First half profit was better than Morgans expected. Winning a major new client - Japan's SBI Group - is expected to deliver new recurring licence income from FY19.
Despite recent setbacks, Morgans believes the company is developing a global franchise as a supplier of core systems to large banks and wealth managers. Moreover, it is well capitalised and able to fund its way through near-term development costs.
Add rating retained. Target rises to $3.90 from $3.67.
Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $1.65
If GBT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 34.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of -4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of 12.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates GBT as Neutral (3) -
First half results were weaker than expected, affected by large strategic R&D as the company upgrades its IT infrastructure. FY18 operating earnings guidance of $10-15m was reiterated.
UBS remodels its R&D profile and lifts outer year forecasts, but believes a recovery is already priced into the stock. Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $2.35 from $1.80.
Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.1
If GBT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 34.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of -4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of 12.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.80
Credit Suisse rates GPT as Outperform (1) -
2017 results were in line with expectations and guidance. However, 2018 guidance for 3% growth is softer than Credit Suisse estimated. The broker suspects the planned disposal of Wollongong Central and a step change in electricity costs explain the difference.
Balance sheet strength, a high-quality portfolio and a discount to NTA suggest to the broker the rate of near-term earnings growth is still appealing. Outperform rating and $5.35 target maintained.
Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.55
If GPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of -54.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates GPT as Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank found the company's FY17 report rather "mixed". Reported funds from operations (FFO) didn't quite meet expectation, although the analysts note it was in-line with market consensus.
Management's guidance for the year ahead also proved a little disappointing. It appears the planned sale of Wollongong Central, rising electricity costs and the redevelopments at the MLC and Melbourne Central are to blame.
Hold rating retained. Price target $5.05.
Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.25
If GPT meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of -54.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates GPT as Outperform (1) -
2017 results were in line. Macquarie considers the stock to be in a solid, defensive position, with diversified exposure across a high-quality portfolio and upside risk to guidance. 2018 guidance was provided for the first time, with growth in free funds from operations of 3%.
Macquarie was surprised the buyback was not reactivated. The company indicated it did not believe this was the right course of action at present because of the development pipeline. Macquarie maintains a Outperform rating. Target edges up to $5.63 from $5.60.
Target price is $5.63 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.83
If GPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.40 cents and EPS of 29.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of -54.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 31.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates GPT as Underweight (5) -
2017 results were in line with expectations. Morgan Stanley notes ongoing strength in office and logistics. 2018 guidance for 3% growth in distributions is slightly below expectations.
Underweight and $5.05 target. Industry View: Cautious.
Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.25
If GPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.20 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of -54.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.50 cents and EPS of 31.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates GPT as Hold (3) -
2017 results were in line with forecasts, although guidance for 2018 growth of 3% is below Ord Minnett's expectations. The broker believes the decision to hold off on a buyback should be well received by the market.
The broker also considers it likely that peak liquidity and peak pricing for commercial real estate occurred in late 2017. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $5.35 from $5.50.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.55
If GPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of -54.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates GPT as Neutral (3) -
2017 results met expectations. Guidance for 2018 is slightly below UBS estimates. The broader environment appears more difficult to the broker, as does specific trends for GPT, such as office vacancy and retail expenses hitting income growth.
Retail net operating income growth of 3.8% was elevated versus peers, attributable to expense reductions which are no longer achievable going forward, in the broker's opinion. UBS expects GPT to experience the largest decline in net operating income growth in 2018.
Neutral rating and $5.20 target maintained.
Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.4
If GPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.30 cents and EPS of 31.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of -54.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.50 cents and EPS of 33.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.49
Citi rates IAG as Neutral (3) -
In an initial response to the released interim report, Citi analysts note cash earnings were no less than 9% above their expectation. However, the "beat" largely stems from lower tax and outside equity interests.
Insurance profit was merely in-line. Underlying margins proved a slight beat.
Fully franked dividend of 14c was better than expected as well. Target $7.25. Neutral. Citi analysts think the market will approve.
Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $7.49 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.01, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 39.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of -1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 39.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.8, implying annual growth of 6.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.43
Citi rates MGX as Neutral (3) -
Lower costs and depreciation led Mt Gibson to a beat. The company continues to grow its cash pile, now sitting at $477m. The broker expects this to remain above $400m, despite $100m capex on the Koolan Island restart, as management keeps the powder dry for value accretive investments.
The KI restart is 33% complete, with first ore targeted for early 2019. Neutral retained, target rises to 50c from 45c.
Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.07
If MGX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.50, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.5, implying annual growth of 3.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.2, implying annual growth of -12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MGX as Outperform (1) -
First half earnings were better than forecast, boosted by realised lump pricing. Earnings of $80m were 24% above Macquarie's estimates.
Macquarie notes development of Koolan Island is on track for first production in early 2019 which underpins the medium-term earnings outlook.
The broker retains an Outperform rating and $0.55 target.
Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.12
If MGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.50, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 2.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.5, implying annual growth of 3.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.2, implying annual growth of -12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MGX as Neutral (3) -
First half results were ahead of UBS estimates. This was because of deferred tax benefits and lower costs. UBS lifts estimates by 30% on the back of these reduced costs.
The broker notes a slight reduction over the past few weeks in the company's discounts, e.g. silica penalties have been reduced. UBS believes it is too early to call the trend, given the influence of Chinese New Year. Neutral rating and $0.44 target maintained.
Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.01
If MGX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.50, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.5, implying annual growth of 3.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.2, implying annual growth of -12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.50
Morgan Stanley rates MNF as Overweight (1) -
First half results beat expectations. Morgan Stanley notes a large move in cash flow with the unwinding of payables that have been on the balance sheet since the TNZI acquisition. Guidance for FY18 is unchanged.
The broker considers the de-rating of the stock an opportunity, driven by one-off factors. Potential for upside in the second half stems from government contracts, customer additions in domestic wholesale and further up-selling of software in global wholesale.
Overweight rating. Target price is $7.70. In-Line sector view.
Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $2.2
If MNF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.80 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 26.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.96
Credit Suisse rates PLG as Outperform (1) -
First half results were in line with guidance. FY18 distributions per share are guided at 7.3c. Credit Suisse observes an 11.7% increase in NTA, mainly driven by valuation gains.
The broker considers the business well-positioned despite the overhang of corporate activity. Outperform retained. Target is $1.00.
Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: $0.04
If PLG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates PLG as Hold (3) -
First half earnings were below Ord Minnett forecasts. The miss was partly an accounting reconciliation issue. The broker considers the business is in good shape operationally and making progress on leasing its portfolio, as well as crystallising gains and performance fees via asset sales.
The stock is trading close to valuation and a Hold rating and $1.05 target are maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: $0.09
If PLG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RHC RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED
Healthcare services
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Overnight Price: $66.77
Ord Minnett rates RHC as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett expects the main driver of Australian operations will be top-line growth and continued benefits from the multi-year procurement savings program, when the company reports its first half result on February 28.
Allowance needs to be made for the headwind caused by cuts to prostheses prices but the broker still expects nearly 7% growth in Australian revenue.
Accumulate maintained. Target is trimmed to $80 from $81.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $66.77 Difference: $13.23
If RHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $73.26, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 288.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 287.0, implying annual growth of 9.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 153.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 158.00 cents and EPS of 320.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 314.3, implying annual growth of 9.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $78.74
Deutsche Bank rates RIO as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank analysts have started to contemplate Rio Tinto's exit from the iconic Grasberg operation. Rio is a minority partner, with Freeport-McMoRan owning in excess of 90% of what still remains the world's largest gold mine and second largest copper mine in Indonesia.
Selling Rio Tinto's interest in Grasberg would sadden the analysts, in particular if it's done at a heavily discounted price, given ongoing long term growth potential at the operations.
But it will also turn Rio Tinto into the world's most ESG friendly diversified miner. Buy rating maintained. Target is $84.00.
Target price is $84.00 Current Price is $78.74 Difference: $5.26
If RIO meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $82.66, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 374.50 cents and EPS of 634.96 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 615.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 363.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 369.32 cents and EPS of 614.23 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 580.3, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 349.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.54
Morgan Stanley rates RKN as Equal-weight (3) -
2017 results were in line with expectations. The accountant division is now reported as discontinued, although the transaction awaits regulatory approval in Australia and New Zealand. Morgan Stanley notes the account group de-merger approval remains the catalyst.
Equal-weight rating and In-Line sector view retained. Target steady at $1.42.
Target price is $1.42 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If RKN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.53, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of -2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 24.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 10.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of 7.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates RKN as Hold (3) -
2017 results were in line with guidance. Ord Minnett understands investors are focused on the special dividend that is expected once the accountants group sale settles, but finds it hard to get excited about the outlook for continuing operations.
The challenges suggest the company's cloud products and other services must grow fast enough to offset the decline in the legacy desktop business.
Hold retained. Target is raised to $1.62 from $1.40.
Target price is $1.62 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.08
If RKN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.53, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of -2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 24.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.30 cents and EPS of 4.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of 7.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.62
Ord Minnett rates SDF as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett expects robust earnings growth, likely in double-digits, for the next 2-3 years, driven by a turn in the insurance cycle and acquisition prospects. The company reports its first half result on February 21.
Accumulate maintained. Target rises to $3.07 from $2.85.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $3.07 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.45
If SDF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 21.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.9, implying annual growth of 33.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.4, implying annual growth of 12.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SGF SG FLEET GROUP LIMITED
Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging
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Overnight Price: $3.94
Citi rates SGF as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
A downgrade to Neutral by Citi, despite yesterday's share price fall, indicates SG Fleet's result was indeed a miss of forecasts. Incremental growth is now harder to come by, the broker suggests, ambiguity remains regarding insurance, the heavy commercial fleet is experiencing weakness, and private sector novation is beholden to consumer sentiment.
No guidance was provided other than expectation of a strengthening competitive position and incrementally more sustainable returns. Valuation is not demanding, Citi notes, but caution is required. Target falls to $4.32 from $4.85.
Target price is $4.32 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $0.38
If SGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.28, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.50 cents and EPS of 25.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.7, implying annual growth of 13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.50 cents and EPS of 27.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of 9.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SGF as Outperform (1) -
First half earnings were in line with Macquarie's estimates. Management has indicated the second half performance is typically stronger than the first half, and the broker suggests this year will be no exception.
Macquarie considers the valuation undemanding and maintains an Outperform rating. Target edges up to $4.41 from $4.40.
Target price is $4.41 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $0.47
If SGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.28, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.90 cents and EPS of 27.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.7, implying annual growth of 13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.50 cents and EPS of 29.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of 9.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SGF as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley considers the first half results solid and expects the second half to be stronger, but finds little to get excited about over the next six months. Challenges facing the business are expected to persist.
The broker maintains FY18 forecasts and considers the valuation fair. Equal-weight rating retained. Target is $4.10. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $0.16
If SGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.28, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.90 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.7, implying annual growth of 13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.50 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of 9.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $11.56
Credit Suisse rates TCL as Outperform (1) -
First half earnings were below Credit Suisse estimates because of lower traffic growth and higher operating costs. Management has emphasised it will take a disciplined approach to bidding for West Connex.
Credit Suisse suspects the uncertainty of the bid process will overhang the stock for the next 4-5 months.
Nevertheless, the shares offer an attractive entry point, in the broker's opinion. Outperform rating retained. Target is reduced to $12.80 from $13.20.
Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $11.56 Difference: $1.24
If TCL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.92, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 14.57 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of 117.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 23.61 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of 24.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates TCL as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -
Deutsche Bank has "nudged up" its price target to $13.25 (from $13.10) alongside an upgrade in rating to Buy from Hold post what the analysts describe as the release of interim financials "largely as expected".
The upgrade is explained by Deutsche Bank via the observation that the share price gap to Australian 10-year yields has now closed while the potential total shareholder return has jumped to 22%.
Coming back to the actual result, Deutsche Bank found it was "strong" and many a metric came out better than expected. Forecasts has been slightly lifted. As to why all this leads to the label "largely as expected" rather than "(slightly) better than expected" shall remain a mystery.
Target price is $13.25 Current Price is $11.56 Difference: $1.69
If TCL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.92, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of 117.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of 24.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates TCL as Outperform (1) -
First half results revealed better fee revenue in NSW and Victoria and lower maintenance provisions. Free cash flow was slightly ahead of Macquarie's estimates. The broker notes the company's pursuit of growth opportunities is unchanged.
Macquarie resumes coverage with an Outperform rating and $12.44 target. Despite interest rate concerns the broker envisages the company's advantage lies with the pipeline of opportunities that leverage existing assets and enhance returns.
Target price is $12.44 Current Price is $11.56 Difference: $0.88
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.92, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 53.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of 117.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 61.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of 24.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates TCL as Add (1) -
First half earnings were broadly in line with Morgans, albeit compositionally different. Melbourne surprised on the upside while Brisbane and Sydney revenue was lower than expected.
The broker expects the portfolio to deliver 7% distribution growth over the years subsequent to FY18. FY18 guidance was unchanged for distribution growth of 8.7%.
Add rating maintained. Target reduced to $12.54 from $12.62.
Target price is $12.54 Current Price is $11.56 Difference: $0.98
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.92, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of 117.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 60.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of 24.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates TCL as Buy (1) -
First half earnings were marginally ahead of Ord Minnett forecasts. The main driver of the result was Melbourne's CityLink, which delivered operating earnings growth of 17.5%, versus the broker's forecasts of 9.8%.
The broker believes the stock provides investors with access to long-dated, predictable cash flows over the life of the toll road concessions and retains a Buy rating and $14.35 target.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $14.35 Current Price is $11.56 Difference: $2.79
If TCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.92, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of 117.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of 24.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates TCL as Buy (1) -
UBS incorporates new forecasts for the recently-announced $4bn West Gate Tunnel, the associated $1.9bn equity raising and changes from the first half result.
The broker considers the NSW government's West Connex sale process is a key opportunity that will play out over the next few months. Buy rating maintained. Target reduced to $13.35 from $13.40.
Target price is $13.35 Current Price is $11.56 Difference: $1.79
If TCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.92, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of 117.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 21.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of 24.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AVN | AVENTUS RETAIL PROPERTY | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.14 |
| AZJ | AURIZON HOLDINGS | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.59 |
| Re-initiation with Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $4.59 | ||
| BLD | BORAL | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $7.43 |
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $7.43 | ||
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $7.43 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.43 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.43 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.43 | ||
| CGF | CHALLENGER | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $12.45 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $12.45 | ||
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $12.45 | ||
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $12.45 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $12.45 | ||
| Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $12.45 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $12.45 | ||
| COH | COCHLEAR | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $176.61 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $176.61 | ||
| Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $176.61 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $176.61 | ||
| Upgrade to Hold from Reduce - Morgans | Overnight Price $176.61 | ||
| Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $176.61 | ||
| Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $176.61 | ||
| DMP | DOMINO'S PIZZA | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $45.32 |
| EXP | EXPERIENCE CO | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.76 |
| FBU | FLETCHER BUILDING | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $6.32 |
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $6.32 | ||
| GBT | GBST HOLDINGS | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.25 |
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.25 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.25 | ||
| GPT | GPT | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.80 |
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $4.80 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.80 | ||
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.80 | ||
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.80 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.80 | ||
| IAG | INSURANCE AUSTRALIA | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $7.49 |
| MGX | MOUNT GIBSON IRON | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $0.43 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.43 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $0.43 | ||
| MNF | MNF GROUP | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.50 |
| PLG | PROPERTYLINK GROUP | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.96 |
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.96 | ||
| RHC | RAMSAY HEALTH CARE | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $66.77 |
| RIO | RIO TINTO | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $78.74 |
| RKN | RECKON | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.54 |
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.54 | ||
| SDF | STEADFAST GROUP | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.62 |
| SGF | SG FLEET | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $3.94 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.94 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.94 | ||
| TCL | TRANSURBAN GROUP | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $11.56 |
| Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $11.56 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $11.56 | ||
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $11.56 | ||
| Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $11.56 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $11.56 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 21 |
| 2. Accumulate | 3 |
| 3. Hold | 25 |
| 4. Reduce | 2 |
| 5. Sell | 6 |
Wednesday 14 February 2018
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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
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base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
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should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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