Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AWC as Neutral (3) -

AWAC achieved an alumina cash margin of US$55/t in the third quarter. Citi believes the risk is to the upside as, since the end of the quarter, alumina prices have risen sharply to around US$480/t, implying margins will be very strong in the fourth quarter.

Still, the broker considers this positive news is priced into the stock as the Alumina Ltd share price is also up 28%. Neutral maintained. Target is $2.20.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AWC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

A price spike in September did not translate to the September quarter margin from AWAC, given the one-month lag in alumina pricing. As the current price is US$482/t , Credit Suisse increases its December quarter price realisation estimate for Alumina Ltd to US$450/t.

The broker does not believe the current prices is sustainable as supply interruptions should be temporary, although alumina should not return to the low US$300 range.

Credit Suisse does not recommend chasing the stock at the current price and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Nevertheless, dividend yields on a 12-month view are expected to be close to 8% and support the current price. Target is $1.90.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Neutral (3) -

Alumina Ltd's third quarter results reported production largely in line with Macquarie's expectations and cash distribution lower than expected. 

The broker noted cash costs were around 2% higher than expected while realised prices were around -9% lower than forecast. Despite this the broker expects Alumina to benefit from elevated pricing. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $1.90 are retained. 

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

While third quarter net distributions from the joint venture AWAC were a miss versus the Morgan Stanley's estimate, Alumina Ltd should benefit from a higher alumina price in the fourth quarter. Also, while costs were a -6% miss, they were estimated to be driven by production disruptions.

The company reported the average one-month lagged alumina price index (API) price for the fourth quarter-to-date is US$410/t versus the broker's estimated alumina price of US$380/t. The Overweight rating and $2.35 target price are retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.08
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AWC as Hold (3) -

Bauxite and alumina earnings missed Ord Minnett's estimates in the September quarter, largely on a combination of higher costs and lower realised prices. Alcoa has indicated that US$10m of cost relief for bauxite for the fourth quarter will occur as the Alumar outage is resolved.

Alumina Ltd received US$44m from the joint venture AWAC and contributed US$12m in the quarter. Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $2.10 from $1.90.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DHG as Hold (3) -

After increasing its first half listings volume growth assumptions and incorporating the -$60m acquisition of Insight Data Solutions, Morgans raises its target price to $5.22 from $5. Value considerations keeps leads the broker to maintain its Hold rating.

Insight Data Solutions is a leading property data and valuations business. The analyst expects it to have a growth profile vastly superior to the wider group though points out it is relatively small in size.

Target price is $5.22 Current Price is $5.71 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GPT as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades its rating for GPT Group to Equal-weight from Underweight and lifts its target price to $5.30 from $4.70. Industry view is In-Line. This comes as Sydney prime grade office reaches its first material quarter of positive net absorption.

Total absorption is the total new square footage leased by tenants. The analyst likes the portfolio re-balance in in the last 18 months away from retail. The current split is 38% Retail, 39% Office and 23% Industrial compared to the prior split of 43%, 41% and 16%, respectively. 

The broker hasn't included a range of potential positive-catalyst deals in forecasts, which would provide additional impetus above and beyond factors involved in the current rating upgrade.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.07 Difference: $0.23
If GPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.08, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Hub24 provided another solid quarterly, Citi observes. The was no guidance for FY22 but the broker envisages potential for flows to hit $14bn.

There is also potential for funds under administration guidance in FY23 to be upgraded. The broker observes market share gains accelerated during the first quarter, with flows 8% ahead of estimates.

Adviser additions slowed, yet the broker was not surprised, and adviser additions are still up 56% in the year to date. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $35.76 from $32.00.

Target price is $35.76 Current Price is $33.06 Difference: $2.7
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.69, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley sees a potential de-rating event for Insurance Australia Group after ASIC launched civil action over mispricing. It's thought this potentially reduces capital flexibility and increases earnings uncertainty.

The analyst also notes the UK regulator has introduced pricing reform around existing insurance customers paying more than new customers, which has negatively impacted the respective UK share prices. 

The Equal-weight rating and target price of $4.80 are retained. Industry view: In-line. 

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NGI as Outperform (1) -

Navigator Global Investments has reported net inflows of $20m in the first quarter, driving a 1% increase in funds under management. Macquarie noted positive inflows were in the higher fee margin strategies.

The Outperform rating and target price of $2.36 are retained. 

Target price is $2.36 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: $0.54
If NGI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NGI as Buy (1) -

Funds were up 0.9% in the September quarter with a strong performance from Lighthouse. Ord Minnett believes the value proposition for Navigator Global has never been clearer as it is trading on a dividend yield of 8.6% and a cash-adjusted PE of 7.6x.

The broker is attracted to the stock given the positive outlook for fund flows and a steady performance, as well as the potential for further accretive transactions. Buy rating and $2.40 target maintained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: $0.58
If NGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NIC as Initiation of coverage with Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage with an Accumulate rating and $1.10 target. The broker assesses Nickel Mines is a unique Indonesian nickel pig iron producer that is generating significant cash flow.

There are risks, including political, counterparty and ESG, yet given the recent correction in the share price, the broker believes the risk/reward is attractive.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: $0.11
If NIC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORE as Buy (1) -

Recent negative sentiment towards mining equities has meant some profit-taking has occurred across lithium stocks, Ord Minnett observes.

Yet the broker believes this is a buying opportunity as lithium prices have continued to rise. Orocobre remains the key preference in the sector. Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $10.40 from $10.20.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $8.66 Difference: $1.74
If ORE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.50, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PDL as Outperform (1) -

September quarter funds under management were in line with expectations although the outflows of -$2.3bn were unexpected. Still, Credit Suisse does not expect outflows will continue at the same rate and the impact on earnings is minor.

The broker reiterates an Outperform rating and considers the drop in the share price an over-reaction. Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $8.70 from $8.90.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $6.84 Difference: $1.86
If PDL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.35, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDL as Overweight (1) -

While Morgan Stanley sees the September quarter trading update as negative, the group retains its growth options. There were outflows of -$1.7bn ex Thompson, Siegal and Walmsley (TSW) versus the $0.4bn expected by the analyst.

Management attributes the outflows to clients rebalancing. The analyst notes performance has been strong and some outflows were in lower-margin areas. It's also thought ESG alternatives are slowly gaining momentum.

The Overweight rating and target price of $8.50 are retained. The industry view is In-Line. 

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $6.84 Difference: $1.66
If PDL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.35, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PDL as Add (1) -

Despite fourth quarter net outflows of -$2.3bn, Morgans is not overly concerned about their extent or composition. It's thought the recent share price fall is overdone and the Add rating is maintained.

Excluding the acquired Thompson, Siegal and Walmsley business, the group reported funds under management (FUM) of $106.1bn, down marginally on the third quarter figure of $106.7bn. The target price falls to $8.05 from $8.80.

Target price is $8.05 Current Price is $6.84 Difference: $1.21
If PDL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.35, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett believes the net outflow of -$2.3bn in the September quarter overstated the economic impact on the business, and was more than offset by currency benefits of $3bn.

Nevertheless, the broker was disappointed in the report and suspects a turning point in flows may now be pushed further out while observing a substantial amount of liquidity will need to be absorbed in the Australian asset manager sector.

Still, the current share price is attractive in terms of the risk/reward and Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating. Target is reduced to $8.60 from $9.20.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $6.84 Difference: $1.76
If PDL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.35, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QAN as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes, besides being a significant beneficiary from a broader re-opening of the economy, other structural factors will underpin Qantas Airways.

Qantas has a binding agreement to sell 14ha of land at Mascot to LOGOS Property for $802m. This transaction should expedite a refurbished balance sheet.

The broker also believes a rational domestic market will prevail, allowing Qantas to gain share and domestic activity, particularly, improve over the second half. Buy rating and $6.50 target reiterated.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: $0.81
If QAN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.01, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QAN as Buy (1) -

Qantas Airways has sold 13.8ha of land for $802m and has indicated it is exploring further development and/or land sale options with LOGOS Property Group.

UBS observes the sale of the land has been perfectly timed to protect cash flow in a difficult trading year. On the broker's forecasts, net debt will stabilise until operations resume and continued strength in vaccinations and recent policy updates have broadly confirmed its projections for the recovery.

Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $6.40 from $6.25.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: $0.71
If QAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.01, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RBL as Overweight (1) -

In a further review of the investment thesis for Redbubble, Morgan Stanley feels that while the company has previously spoken of driving higher customer loyalty, it's now thought to be core to the strategy.

If successful, the analyst believes the medium term target of 20-30% revenue growth is highly achievable. The Overweight rating and target price of $6.50 are retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $2.52
If RBL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Pilbara shipments in the September quarter were slightly better than Citi expected. Rio Tinto has reduced 2021 guidance for iron ore and copper amid delays on Gudai-Darri and an incident at the Kennecott smelter.

Production in Oyu Tolgoi underground has also eased back. The company is now guiding to Pilbara shipments of 320-325mt following delays to the Gudai-Darri mine completion. Citi reduces estimates by -2% and lowers the target to $120 from $125. Buy maintained.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $99.60 Difference: $20.4
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $118.43, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

September quarter production was slightly softer than Credit Suisse expected. This means 2021 guidance has been downgraded again. The broker suspects the problems with production may continue into 2022.

Moreover, the proportion of low grade product was 33%, which signals to Credit Suisse Rio Tinto may be opting for more low grade to make up production.

Meanwhile, Oyu Tolgoi has been delayed again. First production is now "no earlier than January 2023". Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $110 from $133.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $99.60 Difference: $10.4
If RIO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $118.43, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Rio Tinto has reported a soft third quarter result. While production levels of iron ore, bauxite and mined copper were in line with quarterly expectations, the company has downgraded full year production guidance for these resources.

Macquarie notes the downgraded guidance had been previously flagged and was already largely reflected in the broker's forecasts. The broker decreases earnings per share forecasts by -2% for FY21.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $145.00 from $148.00.

Target price is $145.00 Current Price is $99.60 Difference: $45.4
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $118.43, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Overall third quarter production was in-line with Morgan Stanley's estimates and consensus forecasts. Guidance cuts for iron ore and copper were in line with the broker though may indicate some small downgrades to consensus projections.

The analyst points out that increased sales of lower grade iron ore this and next quarter will impact revenue and small project delays across the portfolio have occurred. The Equal-weight rating and $110 target are retained. Industry view is In-Line. 

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $99.60 Difference: $10.4
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $118.43, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Hold (3) -

Morgans retains its Hold rating and still sees some risks for the fourth quarter following a second consecutive quarter with guidance downgrades in multiple areas. However, the size of downgrades were not thought overly substantial and the target falls to $115 from $117.

Continued tight labour conditions in WA hampered the iron ore performance via a delayed start-up for two mines, explains the analyst. More positively, there was considered to be a steady performance from the aluminium business.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $99.60 Difference: $15.4
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $118.43, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Rio Tinto underwhelmed Ord Minnett with its September quarter production as copper and aluminium missed forecasts by -5-6%. Nevertheless, the broker was not surprised there was another downgrade to iron ore production forecasts for 2021.

Western Australia also appears to be under pressure from labour shortages, affecting iron ore. Still, the broker is attracted to the stock based on valuation, returns and yield and retains a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $143 from $144.

Target price is $143.00 Current Price is $99.60 Difference: $43.4
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $118.43, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Sell (5) -

The third quarter was slightly weaker than UBS anticipated. Shipments were 83mt and up 2% year-on-year. Shipment guidance has been trimmed for 2021 to 320-325mt amid a modest delay to Gudai-Darri.

Rio Tinto remains a beneficiary of high iron ore prices, nonetheless. The broker notes Brazilian/Australia supply is recovering and inventory is building and prices should averaged around US$85/t in 2022.

Cash returns to shareholders in the second half are expected to remain attractive. Still, UBS considers the risk/reward unattractive and retains a Sell rating with an $86 target.

Target price is $86.00 Current Price is $99.60 Difference: minus $13.6 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $118.43, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Further to the acquisition of South32's interest in the Sierra Gorda copper mine in Chile, Citi calculates a contribution, at its copper price estimates, of 90,000tpa of copper equivalent production with EBITDA of around US$400m.

The open pit is expected to mine at a peak rate of 76mt in 2021. Potential upside also exist with extensive oxide stockpiles and a feasibility is currently underway to assess the viability, although the broker does not yet value this opportunity. Buy rating and $4.30 target.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $0.48
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse believes the deal to buy 45% of the Sierra Gorda copper mine in Chile detracts from building a commodity portfolio that attracts investors.

The reason: the company gives up a net cash balance sheet and further buybacks for a couple of years to add just 90,000tpa of attributable copper concentrate.

Credit Suisse had hoped South32 would become an aluminium company that could become globally significant rather than take small stakes in a wide range of commodities. Outperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $4.60 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $0.78
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates S32 as Hold (3) -

Morgans likes the acquisition of a 45% stake in the Sierra Gorda copper mine in Chile. This adds copper and molybdenum into what is already considered a highly diversified business.

The analyst also approves of the price, being a -US$1.6bn upfront cash payment and -US$500m in price/production linked payments. The broker retains its Hold rating. The acquisition is not yet included in forecasts, as conditions precedent are yet to be met.

The target price is adjusted to $3.74 from $3.65.

Target price is $3.74 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SGM as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse assesses favourable conditions continue for scrap. While ferrous prices have declined, as expected, non-ferrous has been robust. A slight moderation in margins means the broker trims forecasts.

Credit Suisse also points out the outlook is not centred on iron ore, as the long-term correlation between iron ore prices and the Sims share price is weak. The broker retains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $19.30 from $19.80.

Target price is $19.30 Current Price is $14.22 Difference: $5.08
If SGM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.72, suggesting upside of 31.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TCL as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans upgrades its rating to Add from Hold after adjusting its valuation approach to concession-based assets, which also lifts its target price to $14.82 from $13.99. Following the recent retail entitlement offer, it's thought there's a current opportunity to buy shares.

Target price is $14.82 Current Price is $13.69 Difference: $1.13
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.08, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse lowers FY22 and FY23 estimates by about -8-9% as the Asian earnings base is reassessed. The broker notes Treasury Wine has guided for a -$5m loss from the Chinese business.

No change to Australian estimates are anticipated, despite the lockdowns causing conditions on premises to be slightly below management's expectations.

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $12.20 from $12.30.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $11.63 Difference: $0.57
If TWE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.34, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates has reported a mixed bag in its first quarter update. The Delta variant has impacted on a slower-than-expected recovery in the US, while Australian pricing has remained firm despite strong volumes and the loss of the Chinese export market. 

Earnings per share forecasts are updated by -4% for FY22, FY23 and FY24. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $12.40 from $12.60.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $11.63 Difference: $0.77
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.34, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TWE as Add (1) -

In the wake of a first quarter update, Morgans considers the company is performing well in what it can control, and feels recent share price weakness represents a great buying opportunity. The Add rating is maintained and the target eases to $13.90 from $14.01.

Management is pleased with the underlying performance in the first quarter and is confident in earnings growth, especially as covid restrictions ease across its key premium and luxury wine sales channels.

Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $11.63 Difference: $2.27
If TWE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.34, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

The first quarter trading update signals to UBS the underlying business is performing well. In the Americas, a turnaround focused on luxury/premium wine has meant above-market growth while progress on divestments continues.

Revenue growth at Penfolds is maintained, led by Asia ex-China. UBS retains a Buy rating and $13.50 target.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $11.63 Difference: $1.87
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.34, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's sector update on fuel retailers centres around the observation that strength in diesel and jet fuel demand has triggered a strong recovery in refining margins.

On the other side of market dynamics, the broker also observes risk from EV disruption is accelerating as more affordable models are being launched, and subsidies are still part of the mix.

In preview of quarterly updates, Macquarie has made minor amendments to estimates, increased the price target for Viva Energy by 4% to $2.60 and maintained its Outperform rating.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.27
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

West African Resources reported in-line production levels for the third quarter, but better-than-expected all-in sustaining costs and gold sales beat Macquarie's forecasts by -9% and 16% respectively. 

The company expects fourth quarter results to exceed the third quarter, implying a full year beat on production guidance. The broker increases earnings per share forecasts 2% in 2021. 

Given recent strong share price performance, the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target price increases to $1.50 from $1.20. 

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.06
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WBC as Add (1) -

Westpac Bank announced reported net profit and cash earnings in the second half will be reduced by -$1.3bn after tax, due to notable items. The Add rating and $29.50 target price are unchanged.

While this derisking of Westpac Institutional Bank (WIB) has affected earnings, it's also optimised risk-weighted assets (RWA) within WIB, explains the analyst. The FY21 cash EPS forecast is reduced by -21%. As it's thought to be a one-off, no outer year forecasts are changed.

Morgans continues to expect a $5bn buyback next month.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $25.39 Difference: $4.11
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.37, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WPL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie notes Woodside Petroleum is unlikely to capture current higher spot LNG pricing given weak production driven by impacts from the North West Shelf. The broker expects third quarter production levels to be the weakest reported since the second quarter in FY19. 

Earnings per share forecasts for FY21 are updated by -3.1% given lower output. Macquarie also noted Woodside Petroleum share price is up more than 30% since reported lows in August. 

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target price decreases to $27.15 from $27.25.

Target price is $27.15 Current Price is $25.18 Difference: $1.97
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.63, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources