Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates AEL as Buy (1) -

Morgans makes minor adjustments across its Resources sector coverage, primarily reflecting updated pricing assumptions to reflect mark-to-market changes. Unit cost and capex estimates are also revised following a review of company guidance.

Across the sector, Morgans analysts believe BHP Group, Woodside Energy, and Amplitude Energy offer the most compelling risk-reward profiles.

For Amplitude Energy, the target rises to 30c from 28c. Buy retained.

The broker is particularly impressed by the significant turnaround at the flagship Sole/Orbost gas operation offshore Victoria. This project achieved nameplate capacity in the June quarter after years of underperformance, without requiring major capital works.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.07
If AEL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AIA as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Auckland International Airport's June data showed a 2% m/m increase in domestic passenger growth and a 1% rise in international passenger growth, including transits.

For FY25, the domestic passenger growth was largely flat but in line with guidance, and international was up 2% y/y but -2% below guidance and slightly below the broker's forecast.

The analyst notes passenger level is now around 89% of pre-covid due to lower seat capacity but expects a recovery in FY26, forecasting 4.5% overall growth.

Buy. Target cut to NZ$8.90 from NZ$9.00

Current Price is $6.74. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes the RBA's decision to leave the cash rate on hold in July has provided a brief timing reprieve for banks and comes on top of other positive recent developments, including the -50-60bps fall in swap rates.

The broker notes banks have also managed their deposit pricing well, given the higher starting point for base rates in this cycle.

The analyst reckons the downside risk from lower rates is now a FY26 story, and in the near term, the earnings outlook is looking more constructive.

EPS forecasts for ANZ Bank lifted for FY25 and FY26. Neutral maintained with unchanged target price of $27.50.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $30.29 Difference: minus $2.79 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.67, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights offshore investors were net buyers of banks' shares in the last six months, taking over from superannuation funds. They bought $2.7bn, the highest since March 2020.

The broker's own proprietary data confirms the flows, noting strong flows from offshore investors into Commbank ((CBA)) of $2.2bn, while domestic institutions purchased National Australia Bank ((NAB)) and Westpac ((WBC)) shares worth $600m and $300m respectively.

The analyst believes the flows could reverse as US capital returns rise and super funds look outside Australia.

In the retail space, the broker notes retail investors were net sellers in the June quarter in the big four banks, except ANZ Bank.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $27.50.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $30.29 Difference: minus $2.79 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.67, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BEN as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie highlights offshore investors were net buyers of banks' shares in the last six months, taking over from superannuation funds. They bought $2.7bn, the highest since March 2020.

The broker's own proprietary data confirms the flows, noting strong flows from offshore investors into Commbank ((CBA)) of $2.2bn, while domestic institutions purchased National Australia Bank ((NAB)) and Westpac ((WBC)) shares worth $600m and $300m respectively.

The analyst believes the flows could reverse as US capital returns rise and super funds look outside Australia.

In the retail space, the broker notes retail investors were net sellers in the June quarter in the big four banks, except ANZ Bank ((ANZ)). Short interest declined across all banks, except Bendigo & Adelaide Bank and Judo Capital ((JDO)).

Underperform. Target unchanged at $10.25.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $12.85 Difference: minus $2.6 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.44, suggesting downside of -17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans makes minor adjustments across its Resources sector coverage, primarily reflecting updated pricing assumptions to reflect mark-to-market changes. Unit cost and capex estimates are also revised following a review of company guidance.

Across the sector, Morgans analysts believe BHP Group, Woodside Energy, and Amplitude Energy offer the most compelling risk-reward profiles.

The target for BHP Group rises to $43.90 from $43.70. Accumulate retained as Morgans favours building positions on market pullbacks.

Longer term, sustained free cash flow, rising copper output and further potash expansion are expected to unlock further value.

Target price is $43.90 Current Price is $39.39 Difference: $4.51
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.23, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BPT as Hold (3) -

Morgans makes minor adjustments across its Resources sector coverage, primarily reflecting updated pricing assumptions to reflect mark-to-market changes. Unit cost and capex estimates are also revised following a review of company guidance.

Across the sector, Morgans analysts believe BHP Group, Woodside Energy, and Amplitude Energy offer the most compelling risk-reward profiles.

For Beach Energy, the target eases to $1.35 from $1.36. Hold maintained. The broker’s conviction is tempered by short-term production risks, driven by weather and joint venture dynamics, against a backdrop of subdued investor sentiment.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.36, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Citi believes the RBA's decision to leave the cash rate on hold in July has provided a brief timing reprieve for banks and comes on top of other positive recent developments, including the -50-60bps fall in swap rates. The broker notes banks have also managed their deposit pricing well, given the higher starting point for base rates in this cycle.

The analyst reckons the downside risk from lower rates is now a FY26 story, and in the near term, the earnings outlook is looking more constructive.

EPS forecasts for CommBank lifted for FY25 and FY26. Sell maintained at unchanged target price of $100.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $179.76 Difference: minus $79.76 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $109.25, suggesting downside of -38.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie highlights offshore investors were net buyers of banks' shares in the last six months, taking over from superannuation funds. They bought $2.7bn, the highest since March 2020.

The broker's own proprietary data confirms the flows, noting strong flows from offshore investors into Commbank of $2.2bn, while domestic institutions purchased National Australia Bank ((NAB)) and Westpac ((WBC)) shares worth $600m and $300m respectively.

The analyst believes the flows could reverse as US capital returns rise and super funds look outside Australia.

In the retail space, the broker notes retail investors were net sellers in the June quarter in the big four banks, except ANZ Bank ((ANZ)).

Underperform. Target unchanged at $105.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $179.76 Difference: minus $74.76 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $109.25, suggesting downside of -38.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes the RBA's retail payments regulatory consultation paper and highlights the potential impacts on Cuscal are "secondary in nature."

The analyst flags potential impacts on client profitability in issuing lower interchange fees, as well as customer acquisition, which may have the potential to impact processing fee negotiations for the company over the longer term.

No changes are made to the broker's earnings forecasts.

Buy rating and $3.75 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.18 Difference: $0.57
If CCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights Charter Hall as its top pick in the Real Estate sector and an "ideal" exposure to asset revaluations, better capital flows, and direct property and deal flows.

The broker acknowledges the stock has re-rated over the past six to 12 months but views there to be more ongoing momentum, underpinned by fund-raising and deal news flows.

Morgan Stanley believes investors buying Charter Hall are doing so at a period when property assets under management are near the trough.

Overweight rating. Target price is raised to $22.60. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $22.60 Current Price is $19.43 Difference: $3.17
If CHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.13, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COH as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights improving trends in new Cochlear implant patients in the US, though limited patient awareness and audiologist referral dynamics remain key obstacles to broader adoption.

The broker points out Cochlear’s Nucleus 8 processor continues to lead in aesthetics and bimodal performance, supporting recent share gains.

Less positively, Med-El is better positioned to take market share in the near term, according to the analyst, driven by the FDA approval of its Sonnet 3 processor in February.

Macquarie  also notes sentiment around Cochlear’s Nucleus Nexa system is cautious, with optimism for upgradable firmware offset by concern over internal data reliability and limited clinician familiarity.

Macquarie also flags a modest decline in US insurance coverage across surveyed clinics, which may constrain growth in new patient volumes.

Macquarie lowers its target price to $270.50 from $271.60 and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $270.50 Current Price is $300.74 Difference: minus $30.24 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $290.64, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

On first take, Evolution Mining reported a robust 4Q24 update according to Citi, with operating cashflow a record at $700m for the quarter and $2.3bn for FY25, which was above consensus estimates when adjusting for early debt repayments.

The miner has guided production for FY26 of 710–780koz, which meets consensus, and copper of 70–80kt at all-in sustaining costs of $1,720–$1,880/oz.

The analyst highlights that when normalising for the miner's commodity price expectations, the lower end of guidance aligns with consensus.

Citi expects the market to be positive on the strong cash flow for FY25 and explains that normalising the FY26 guidance is challenging but in line, and capex is sitting in a five-year guidance range of -$750–$950m, which is down on a year earlier.

Neutral rated with a $7.70 target.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.70 Difference: $0
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.94, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVT as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes EVT Ltd could be sitting on a "gold mine" with its hotel assets, with the cost of construction for new hotels up around 30%–50% compared to pre-covid levels.

The analyst also sees downside risks to new room supply coming onto the market, which is expected to be below demand, and a rise in room rates in Australia over the medium to longer term, which could help boost the share price of EVT Ltd.

Box office data also suggest the highest level will be achieved in FY25 since FY19.

The target price is lifted to $17.89 from $16.17. The broker leaves EPS estimates unchanged and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $17.89 Current Price is $16.45 Difference: $1.44
If EVT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.67, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Hold (3) -

Morgans makes minor adjustments across its Resources sector coverage, primarily reflecting updated pricing assumptions to reflect mark-to-market changes. Unit cost and capex estimates are also revised following a review of company guidance.

Across the sector, Morgans analysts believe BHP Group, Woodside Energy, and Amplitude Energy offer the most compelling risk-reward profiles.

The Hold rating and $16.50 target are maintained for Fortescue. The broker points out persisting cost pressures and Iron Bridge
underperformance leave little buffer should iron ore prices retreat.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $16.78 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.58, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Another "solid" June quarter update from Hub24, notes Bell Potter with net flows rising $5.3bn, above the analyst's forecast of $4.8bn, includinhg the completion of Equity Trustees (EQT) migration of $1.2bn, above April guidance of $0.9bn.

Advsier growth came in at 13% with 5097 advisers now using the platform with this quarter indicating the ongoing trend of slowing growth on a quarter-on-quarter basis. 

Hub24 managed to lift market share by 1.1% against a year earlier. While 31 new distribution agreements were signed.

Bell Potter reiterates a Buy rating, emphasing again the "upside" to flows and earnings underpinned by superannuation and technology. Target rise to $115 from $100 with a slight tweak to the analyst's EPS estimates of -1% for FY25 and unchanged in FY26.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $100.57 Difference: $14.43
If HUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $87.43, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Hub24 delivered record net flows of $19.8bn in 2025, with $5.3bn in the June quarter alone, including a $1.2bn final migration from Equity Trustees ((EQT)), highlights Macquarie.

The broker explains market movements of $4.9bn provided a 5% uplift to opening platform funds under administration (FUA). Quarterly flows, excluding migrations, rose 33% year-on-year, outperforming consensus by 4.1%.

Total FUA reached a record $136.4bn by June, up 30% year-on-year, while adviser numbers increased 13% to 5,097.

Management's FY26 platform FUA target of $123–135bn is unchanged.

Macquarie raises its target price to $95.90 from $74.20 to reflect market updates, earnings forecast changes, and an upgrade to long-term growth assumptions. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $95.90 Current Price is $100.57 Difference: minus $4.67 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $87.43, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HUB as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley states that at first glance, Hub24's net inflows for 4Q25 came in above consensus expectations, with market movements more positive than anticipated also.

Funds under administration rose 7% to $5.3bn on a year ago, above consensus at $4.8bn, with the final tranche of Equity Trustees (EQT) transitions completed.

Around $5.3bn of funds under administration were migrated over FY24 and FY25. Adviser numbers grew 13% on last year.

Class accounts rose 4% annually to 215,700, the broker notes. Overweight rating. Target $80. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $100.57 Difference: minus $20.57 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $87.43, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JDO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights offshore investors were net buyers of banks' shares in the last six months, taking over from superannuation funds. They bought $2.7bn, the highest since March 2020.

The broker's own proprietary data confirms the flows, noting strong flows from offshore investors into Commbank ((CBA)) of $2.2bn, while domestic institutions purchased National Australia Bank ((NAB)) and Westpac ((WBC)) shares worth $600m and $300m respectively.

The analyst believes the flows could reverse as US capital returns rise and super funds look outside Australia.

In the retail space, the broker notes retail investors were net sellers in the June quarter in the big four banks, except ANZ Bank ((ANZ)). Short interest declined across all banks, except Bendigo & Adelaide Bank ((BEN)) and Judo Capital.

Outperform. Target rises to $1.80 from $1.75.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.19
If JDO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.94, suggesting upside of 24.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Buy (1) -

Morgans makes minor adjustments across its Resources sector coverage, primarily reflecting updated pricing assumptions to reflect mark-to-market changes. Unit cost and capex estimates are also revised following a review of company guidance.

Across the sector, Morgans analysts believe BHP Group, Woodside Energy, and Amplitude Energy offer the most compelling risk-reward profiles.

For Karoon Energy, the target edges up to $2.26 from $2.25. The broker sees further upside to its target price as market confidence builds around Bauna and Who Dat operational performance, supported by a successful Bauna FPSO handover in 2H25.

FPSO stands for Floating Production Storage and Offloading (vessel).

Target price is $2.26 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.36
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.20, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LFG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes the current RBA rate cut cycle and low funding costs are supportive for non-bank lenders, reflected in an increase in their market share of new mortgages.

While pressure from banks has generally stabilised, the analyst notes competition within the sector has increased. 

For Liberty Financial, the broker cut FY26 EPS forecast by -3% and FY27 by -5% on lower volumes as a result of competition.

Target cut to $4.30 from $4.40 on medium-term profitability revisions. Outperform retained.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.58
If LFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Sell (5) -

Citi believes the RBA's decision to leave the cash rate on hold in July has provided a brief timing reprieve for banks and comes on top of other positive recent developments, including the -50-60bps fall in swap rates.

The broker notes banks have also managed their deposit pricing well, given the higher starting point for base rates in this cycle.

The analyst reckons the downside risk from lower rates is now a FY26 story, and in the near term, the earnings outlook is looking more constructive.

EPS forecasts for National Australia Bank lifted for FY25 and FY26. Sell maintained at unchanged target price of $30.50.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $39.61 Difference: minus $9.11 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.17, suggesting downside of -13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights offshore investors were net buyers of banks' shares in the last six months, taking over from superannuation funds. They bought $2.7bn, the highest since March 2020.

The broker's own proprietary data confirms the flows, noting strong flows from offshore investors into Commbank ((CBA)) of $2.2bn, while domestic institutions purchased National Australia Bank and Westpac ((WBC)) shares worth $600m and $300m, respectively.

The analyst believes the flows could reverse as US capital returns rise and super funds look outside Australia.

In the retail space, the broker notes retail investors were net sellers in the June quarter in the big four banks, except ANZ Bank ((ANZ)).

Neutral. Target unchanged at $35.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $39.61 Difference: minus $4.61 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.17, suggesting downside of -13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Netwealth Group reported 4Q25 net flows of $3.7bn, which came in below Macquarie's forecast by -8% and under consensus by -9%, with market movements boosting funds under administration by $4.9bn, or circa 5% of funds under administration.

Member accounts rose 4% on the previous quarter to 162.3k from 155.7k.

The analyst lifts EPS forecasts by 4.2% for FY25 and 9.6% for FY26, with an estimated compound average growth rate in EPS of 16% from FY24 to FY30.

Neutral rating retained. Target moves up 17% to $33.35 from $28.40.

Target price is $33.35 Current Price is $35.81 Difference: minus $2.46 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.38, suggesting downside of -15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NXT as Buy (1) -

Citi reiterates its Buy rating for NextDC with the target price revised down by -2% to $18.35 due to the upbeat outlook for demand as AI is seen as only at the early stages of the cycle.

FY25 contract wins were deferred more than anticipated, but the size of contract wins largely met the broker's expectations at 72.5MWs versus 80MWs flagged in October last year.

Considering hyperscaler Microsoft has delayed or paused some contracts and Sydney had no contract wins, the FY25 wins were reasonably robust, Citi states.

In FY26, the analyst forecasts 85MWs of bookings with another 50MW contract win in M3, a 20MW contract in S3, and another 10MW in KL.

An estimated rise in cost growth is flagged for FY26 as contract wins rise and billing utilisation are expected to increase from FY27.

Citi expects further equity raisings of $650m in 2H26 and $500m in 2H27.

Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $13.82 Difference: $4.88
If NXT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.72, suggesting upside of 39.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OBM as Outperform (1) -

Ora Banda Mining's June quarter production of around 22koz missed Macquarie's estimate by -11% due to mining delays at Riverina, which pushed -3koz of high-grade stopes into July.

The broker is disappointed by FY25 guidance with costs (AISC) of $2,800–2,900/oz and capex of -$156m both materially higher than expected, while production guidance of 140–155koz was in line.

The analyst explains higher costs include full-year mining expenses, capital at Sand King, and additional third-party processing charges for 200–400kt.

Macquarie aligns its forecasts to guidance and raises its long-term cost base by 16%, citing continued reliance on toll treatment and uncertainty around ore supply for the proposed 3mtpa mill expansion.

Macquarie lowers its target price to 90c from $1.05 and retains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.22
If OBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OML as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains cautiously optimistic on oOh!media underpinned by strong out-of-home advertising trends and a forecast 10% rise in 2025 revenue.

The broker expects first-half profit (NPATA) of $28m, up 52% year-on-year and 7% ahead of consensus, supported by revenue growth of 13% and operating costs of $77m, both in line with guidance.

While the loss of the Auckland Transport contract was disappointing, Macquarie notes it removes a key overhang and has been fully removed from the broker's forecasts.

Operating leverage from cost controls and structural market share gains from traditional media remain key supports to Macquarie's investment case.

The $2.00 target and Outperform rating are maintained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.24
If OML meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Orora is due to report FY25 results on August 14 and highlights the company is experiencing sound growth for cans, while the glass business continues to experience challenges.

Management is aiming for total earnings before interest and tax of $50m for cans, with expansion expected to boost volume growth to longer-term rates of 4% growth on the previous year.

A recovery in glass does not seem to be evident yet, as consumption for spirits and wines remains weak. The analyst notes industry de-stocking has essentially been completed, but the sector is being impacted by cost-of-living pressures and tariff uncertainties.

Outperform rating retained. Target moves to $2.36 from $2.39. The analyst tweaks EPS estimates.

Target price is $2.36 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: $0.22
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORA as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes the recent threat by US President Donald Trump to impose a 30% tariff on imports from the EU and Mexico introduces meaningful risk and valuation complexity for Orora, particularly its Saverglass unit.

The company previously noted $90m of direct sales are at risk, which comprised around 8% of Saverglass' revenue in 1H25. A 30% tariff would make these products significantly less competitive, the broker highlights.

Indirect sales of $180m are at risk from EU-based customers into the US, and this could be more heavily affected. These comprised 16% of Saverglass' revenue.

Hold. Target unchanged at $2.30.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: $0.16
If ORA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PPM as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie believes the current RBA rate cut cycle and low funding costs are supportive for non-bank lenders, reflected in an increase in their market share of new mortgages.

While pressure from banks has generally stabilised, the analyst notes competition within the sector has increased. 

For Pepper Money, the broker cut FY25 EPS forecast by -1% and FY26 by -4% mainly on reduced dilution from buybacks.

Target lifted to $1.70 from $1.65 on valuation roll-forward. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform following share price rally.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If PPM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Commenting on the appointment of Rio Tinto's Iron Ore CEO Simon Trott as the company's CEO, Citi notes no fundamental change in the direction is likely. However, it expects greater focus on operational performance and less focus on M&A under the new leadership.

The broker will watch for the replacement to Trott's previous role, given the company is in the midst of a series of new mine developments, including Rhodes Ridge.

Separately, today's release of Rio Tinto’s June quarter copper-equivalent production shows a rise of 13% year-on-year, lifting first-half growth to 6%, largely on stronger copper output and the inclusion of Arcadium Lithium, explains Citi.

In a first take on the result, the broker highlights copper production of 229kt exceeded Citi’s forecast by 4%, with management now expecting full-year output at the upper end of guidance and unit costs at the lower end.

Pilbara shipments rose versus the March quarter, annualising at 320mtpa, though came in -3% below Citi's forecast.

SP10, a lower-grade iron ore product, accounted for around 30% of volumes, underlining to the broker the importance of new supply from assets like Rhodes Ridge.

This new Pilbara Blend at 60.8% iron combines prior products into a single stream, with a residual SP10 fraction remaining, explain the analysts.

Full-year Pilbara cost guidance remains unchanged at US$23–24.5/t.

Neutral. Target $113.

Target price is $113.00 Current Price is $110.28 Difference: $2.72
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $113.58, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes Simon Trott has been appointed as the new Chief Executive of Rio Tinto from August 25, succeeding Jakob Stausholm who is stepping down.

The company's press release stated the appointment signals the company's next phase of "unlocking significant value to shareholders... driven by operational performance, and cost and financial discipline."

The broker notes Mr Trott has 25 years of experience with the company. From a sentiment perspective, the suggestion made is appointment should remove uncertainty and offer better clarity on strategy and priorities.

Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating and a $119.50 target price. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $119.50 Current Price is $110.28 Difference: $9.22
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $113.58, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Hold (3) -

Morgans makes minor adjustments across its Resources sector coverage, primarily reflecting updated pricing assumptions to reflect mark-to-market changes. Unit cost and capex estimates are also revised following a review of company guidance.

Across the sector, Morgans analysts believe BHP Group, Woodside Energy, and Amplitude Energy offer the most compelling risk-reward profiles.

The target for Rio Tinto rises to $109 from $108. Hold retained. Weighing on near-term sentiment, the broker highlights Pilbara execution risks around volumes, Pilbara Blend fines quality and unit costs, plus geopolitical overhangs in Mongolia, Guinea and Canada.

Target price is $109.00 Current Price is $110.28 Difference: minus $1.28 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $113.58, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett views Simon Trott's appointment as Rio Tinto's CEO as a positive development. Trott is CEO of the Iron Ore division and will take over from Jakob Stausholm in August.

The broker notes the key challenge for Trott would be managing the capex required to execute on the several opportunities for the company. This is because the company typically pays out an average 60% of earnings as dividends.

Another important challenge will be managing the relationship with the Mongolian government. Buy. Target unchanged at $120.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $110.28 Difference: $9.72
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $113.58, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

UBS views the appointment of Simon Trott (CEO - Iron Ore) as the company's CEO following Jakob Stausholm's exit in August as a relatively safe and low-risk option. The broker notes the focus for Trott will be on improving operational performance and reducing costs.

The analyst highlighted a comment from the Chair the hurdle rate for inorganic deals is very high, as the incoming CEO will need to focus on "transformative M&A."

The broker assesses key challenges for Trott will be resetting relations in Mongolia, simplifying the group, delivering the Simandou project and growth in copper and lithium.

Neutral. Target cut to $115 from $120.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $110.28 Difference: $4.72
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $113.58, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie believes the current RBA rate cut cycle and low funding costs are supportive for non-bank lenders, reflected in an increase in their market share of new mortgages.

While pressure from banks has generally stabilised, the analyst notes competition within the sector has increased. 

For Resimac Group, the broker cut FY25 EPS forecast by -1% and FY26 by -7% on lower volumes as a result of competition on both mortgages and asset finance units.

Target cut to $0.95 from $1.00. Neutral retained.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $0.07
If RMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.98, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Morgans updates its earnings forecasts for Regal Partners following stronger-than-expected performance fee contributions in the first half of 2025.

In an announcemnt on July 3, management estimated it would recognise at least $35m in performance fee revenue (pre-tax and on a normalised basis) for the 1H25 period. Morgans had a forecast for zero.

The broker notes a modest reduction in funds management margin alongside a higher-than-previously-forecast charge for non-controlling interests.

Despite these adjustments, the analyst remains constructive on the outlook, citing Regal’s robust balance sheet and ongoing capacity to grow funds under management.

No revisions have been made to cost or earnings (EBITDA) guidance. 

The Add rating and $3.30 target are maintained.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.68
If RPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 32.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Morgans makes minor adjustments across its Resources sector coverage, primarily reflecting updated pricing assumptions to reflect mark-to-market changes. Unit cost and capex estimates are also revised following a review of company guidance.

Across the sector, Morgans analysts believe BHP Group, Woodside Energy, and Amplitude Energy offer the most compelling risk-reward profiles.

The broker believes patient investors in South32 will be ultimately rewarded given a sturdy balance sheet and sustainable dividends.

The target falls to $4.10 from $4.30. Buy retained.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: $1.13
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.51, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STO as Trim (4) -

Morgans makes minor adjustments across its Resources sector coverage, primarily reflecting updated pricing assumptions to reflect mark-to-market changes. Unit cost and capex estimates are also revised following a review of company guidance.

Across the sector, Morgans analysts believe BHP Group, Woodside Energy, and Amplitude Energy offer the most compelling risk-reward profiles.

Santos is trading above the broker's $6.80 target price, down from $6.90, but below Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's $8.89 bid, offering only modest upside relative to the significant completion risk. Trim rating maintained.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $7.74 Difference: minus $0.94 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.19, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TNE as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Bell Potter downgrades TechnologyOne to Sell from Hold, with a new target price set at $35.75 from $35.50, with no changes to earnings forecasts for the company.

The analyst estimates profit before tax growth of 19%, 20%, and 20% for FY25, FY26, and FY27, which is near consensus forecast growth.

Bell Potter details that the FY25 estimate assumes 10% profit before tax growth in 2H versus 33% in 1H, and there is upside risk if sales and marketing expenses are not as high as currently anticipated.

The current price target equates to a FY26 price-to-earnings ratio of 70 times, with a PEG ratio of around 3.5 times, which in the analyst's view more than discounts circa 30% profit before tax growth over the next three years.

Target price is $35.75 Current Price is $40.37 Difference: minus $4.62 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.58, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TYR as Buy (1) -

UBS assesses no near-term impact on Tyro Payments' gross profit outlook from the RBA's consultation paper on payment cost review.

The broker reckons the proposed surcharge ban would have a mixed impact on the company while the greater fee transparency would be slightly positive.

In the longer term, the broker sees an opportunity to gain market share, but the shift away from simple pricing models might be slightly negative.

Buy. Target unchanged at $1.35.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.45
If TYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 38.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Sell (5) -

Citi believes the RBA's decision to leave the cash rate on hold in July has provided a brief timing reprieve for banks and comes on top of other positive recent developments, including the -50-60bps fall in swap rates. The broker notes banks have also managed their deposit pricing well, given the higher starting point for base rates in this cycle.

The analyst reckons the downside risk from lower rates is now a FY26 story, and in the near term, the earnings outlook is looking more constructive. 

For Westpac, the broker marginally lowered net interest margin forecasts for FY25 and FY26, resulting in slightly lower cash earnings for FY25 and a marginally higher FY26.

Sell maintained at unchanged target price of $27.75.

Target price is $27.75 Current Price is $33.79 Difference: minus $6.04 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.98, suggesting downside of -13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WBC as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie highlights offshore investors were net buyers of banks' shares in the last six months, taking over from superannuation funds. They bought $2.7bn, the highest since March 2020.

The broker's own proprietary data confirms the flows, noting strong flows from offshore investors into Commbank ((CBA)) of $2.2bn, while domestic institutions purchased National Australia Bank ((NAB)) and Westpac shares worth $600m and $300m respectively.

The analyst believes the flows could reverse as US capital returns rise and super funds look outside Australia.

In the retail space, the broker notes retail investors were net sellers in the June quarter in the big four banks, except ANZ Bank ((ANZ)).

Underperform. Target unchanged at $27.50.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $33.79 Difference: minus $6.29 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.98, suggesting downside of -13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WDS as Buy (1) -

Morgans makes minor adjustments across its Resources sector coverage, primarily reflecting updated pricing assumptions to reflect mark-to-market changes. Unit cost and capex estimates are also revised following a review of company guidance.

Across the sector, Morgans analysts believe BHP Group, Woodside Energy, and Amplitude Energy offer the most compelling risk-reward profiles.

The target for Woodside Energy rises to $31.00 from $30.10. Buy maintained. Operational discipline remains evident to the broker, with unit costs consistently outperforming guidance and peers, supporting an attractive forward dividend yield.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $24.19 Difference: $6.81
If WDS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.13, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

Citi points to a Bloomberg report last Friday that JPMorgan has proposed fees to FinTechs/aggregators for using its customer data.

The analyst notes both Xero ((XRO)) and Zip Co access bank accounts in the US, and JP Morgan is the number one in consumer banking as classified by retail deposits, with a market share of around 11%.

Citi does not view the potential impacts as material to either Xero or Zip, with the potential for Xero to raise prices to offset any cost increases. 

Commentary stipulates neither company has received any notification from JP Morgan. Buy rated with $3.10 target.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $0.27
If ZIP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.30, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources