Australian Broker Call

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February 09, 2018

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AGL - AGL ENERGY Downgrade to Sell from Neutral Citi
AMP - AMP Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
ANN - ANSELL Upgrade to Neutral from Sell UBS
AYS - AMAYSIM AUSTRALIA Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
BSL - BLUESCOPE STEEL Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
CIP - CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
HSN - HANSEN TECHNOLOGIES Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
MGR - MIRVAC Upgrade to Buy from Hold Ord Minnett
NAB - NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
TAH - TABCORP HOLDINGS Upgrade to Buy from Neutral UBS
TPM - TPG TELECOM Downgrade to Sell from Neutral UBS
VRL - VILLAGE ROADSHOW Upgrade to Neutral from Sell Citi
AGL  AGL ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $21.40

Citi rates AGL as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

First half net profit was below Citi's forecasts. The company lost -4% of its customers in Queensland and the broker estimates a -2-3% reduction in gross margins from increased competition.

Citi forecasts 2% growth in earnings per share from FY18 to FY23 and suspects domestic growth is becoming harder to obtain and organic options are at higher cost.

Rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral and the target reduced to $20.54 from $25.28.

Target price is $20.54 Current Price is $21.40 Difference: minus $0.86 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.97, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 108.00 cents and EPS of 147.50 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.0, implying annual growth of 91.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 111.00 cents and EPS of 148.90 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.0, implying annual growth of 10.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 127.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates AGL as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank analysts seem pleased, commenting their thesis on wholesale electricity prices is playing out, judging from the company's interim report update. Alas, it was also revealed there are strong headwinds in the retail business.

While competition in the retail space will only intensify further, according to the analysts, they remain quite sanguine on margins. Estimates have been reduced, which has lowered the price target to $25.45. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $25.45 Current Price is $21.40 Difference: $4.05
If AGL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.97, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 108.00 cents and EPS of 144.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.0, implying annual growth of 91.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 155.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.0, implying annual growth of 10.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 127.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates AGL as Neutral (3) -

First half net profit was ahead of Macquarie's estimates, up 27% and driven by a wholesale energy improvement offset by re-pricing of customers to reflect forward curves. The company believes a structural change is occurring in the customer business amid renewed competition.

Macquarie considers the issue for investors is whether the value attached to retail earnings is more than wholesale, and the mix shift to wholesale does not drag on valuation. The broker retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target is $23.01 from $24.05.

Target price is $23.01 Current Price is $21.40 Difference: $1.61
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.97, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 153.40 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.0, implying annual growth of 91.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 128.00 cents and EPS of 170.40 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.0, implying annual growth of 10.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 127.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Equal-weight (3) -

In the wake of AGL's result, the broker notes the stock has de-rated towards more longer term PE multiples, suggesting that the peak of the price pool tailwind is in the share price and competition in the electricity market remains intense.

The company's focus has now switched back to reducing costs. The broker believes free cash flow momentum and defensive earnings provide relative appeal, sufficient to retain an Equal-weight rating. Target falls to $24.28 from $25.10.

Industry view: Cautious

Target price is $24.28 Current Price is $21.40 Difference: $2.88
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.97, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 114.00 cents and EPS of 152.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.0, implying annual growth of 91.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 134.00 cents and EPS of 178.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.0, implying annual growth of 10.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 127.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates AGL as Accumulate (2) -

AGL's result beat the broker by 3% due largely to higher gas margins. The dividend was as expected. Increased marketing costs will drag on the second half.

New renewable capacity coming on line could lead to reduced wholesale prices, the broker suggests, but also price volatility. Despite emerging risks, the broker still sees valuation appeal. Accumulate retained. Target falls to $27.00 from $30.15.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $21.40 Difference: $5.6
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.97, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 113.00 cents and EPS of 174.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.0, implying annual growth of 91.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 132.00 cents and EPS of 177.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.0, implying annual growth of 10.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 127.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates AGL as Buy (1) -

First half net profit was ahead of UBS estimates. Full year guidance is unchanged. UBS believes the market is placing too much emphasis on declining electricity futures prices as a predictor of earnings as well as the risks of increased retail competition.

The broker retains a Buy rating, noting strong earnings growth, attractive dividends and potential for further capital management. Target is reduced to $27.50 from $29.50.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $21.40 Difference: $6.1
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.97, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 112.00 cents and EPS of 153.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.0, implying annual growth of 91.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 133.00 cents and EPS of 178.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.0, implying annual growth of 10.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 127.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMC  AMCOR LIMITED

Paper & Packaging

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Overnight Price: $14.30

Morgan Stanley rates AMC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley has resumed coverage of plain packaging stocks in Australia. The view is that the sector is not positioned for sustained outperformance, given valuations.

From a macro perspective, Morgan Stanley prefers cyclical exposures in the share market. Rating Underweight. Price target $14.40. Sector view is Cautious.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $14.30 Difference: $0.1
If AMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.97, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 58.33 cents and EPS of 82.96 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 64.81 cents and EPS of 90.73 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.5, implying annual growth of 10.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMP  AMP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $5.21

Citi rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

2017 profit was slightly below Citi's estimates. The broker is disappointed the buyback has not resumed, noting AMP is in discussions regarding a further portfolio review, which is encouraging.

The bank segment achieved a strong result, slightly above estimates. Neutral rating and $5.60 target maintained.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $0.39
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 36.10 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of 14.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 37.80 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates AMP as Outperform (1) -

2017 profit was ahead of Credit Suisse estimate. The broker suggests most of the focus is on the capital position, which took a hit in the first half and recovered in the second.

Capital management initiatives are now on hold while the company completes a review. The broker remains supportive of the strategy and believes value will eventually be realised.

Rating is Outperform.Target is $5.60.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $0.39
If AMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of 14.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates AMP as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

2017 results exceeded guidance.  As revenue growth and earnings improvement is constrained in the three divisions under review, Macquarie believes any divestments could create grounds for a positive surprise and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral.

The broker adjusts earnings per share estimates down by -7.8% in 2018 and -3.1% in 2019 to reflect changes to methodology. Target is raised to $5.65 from $5.50.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $0.44
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of 14.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 36.30 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Equal-weight (3) -

AMP's result was in line with the broker, but only after a surprise result from the Life business. Otherwise, wealth flows were anaemic and regulatory costs have grown with the Royal Commission approaching.

AMP is undergoing a strategic review, exploring portfolio options and potential capital initiatives. A good outcome would support a re-rating, the broker suggests, and an update will come at or before the May AGM. Equal-weight and $5.75 target retained.

Industry view: In line.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $0.54
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of 14.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates AMP as Add (1) -

2017 results were in line with Morgans. The broker observes more positives than negatives and lifts 2018 and 2019 estimates by 1-3%.

Morgans envisages potential catalysts in the strategic review as well as a likely return to the buyback. Add rating maintained. Target is raised to $5.82 from $5.78.

Target price is $5.82 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $0.61
If AMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.10 cents and EPS of 35.20 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of 14.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 37.20 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates AMP as Accumulate (2) -

For the first time in a long time, the broker notes, AMP did not adversely shock the market with its result. Trends in wealth management remain tough but the worst should now be past.

AMP is undertaking a strategic review, the results of which the broker will await. Given uncertainty, target falls to $5.90 from $6.00. Accumulate retained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $0.69
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of 14.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

2017 results were in line with UBS. The broker suggests sentiment around the stock will be driven by outcomes of the portfolio review, due in May.

The value opportunity otherwise depends on the extent to which the growth businesses might re-rate, but UBS envisages limitations given structural revenue headwinds in wealth management.

Neutral rating and $5.40 target retained.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $0.19
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of 14.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANN  ANSELL LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies

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Overnight Price: $24.82

UBS rates ANN as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS reviews forecasts ahead of the first half result next week. The broker envisages some tailwinds are set to boost earnings over the short to medium term.

These include the persistence of robust industrial growth, raw material price deflation into the second half and a decline in the USD/EUR rate.

While the broker is cautious about the ability to generate consistent organic growth over the longer term, current conditions are too compelling to ignore and the rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Target is raised to $26 from $21.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $24.82 Difference: $1.18
If ANN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.95, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 58.33 cents and EPS of 137.40 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 60.92 cents and EPS of 147.76 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.9, implying annual growth of -20.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AQZ  ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $1.70

Credit Suisse rates AQZ as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse analysts point out this company is poised for "material growth" into H2 FY18 and into FY19. There seems to have been a change of analyst, but no change to the Outperform rating.

Price target lifts to $2.20 from $1.30 on higher estimates. "Firing on all cylinders", states today's update. Balance sheet should be left with a negligible debt position by end FY20.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.5
If AQZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 13.97 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.17.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.03 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.55.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AYS  AMAYSIM AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Telecommunication

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Overnight Price: $1.71

Macquarie rates AYS as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The company's update has revealed a rapid deterioration in average revenue per unit because of ongoing competition and the recent introduction of $10-20 price points for unlimited plans.

Macquarie observes this has a material negative impact on near-term earnings but the extent will be largely determined by future re-negotiations of the wholesale agreement.

The broker finds it difficult to support the valuation until the extent of the re-basing is clearer. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is lowered to $1.95 from $2.35.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.24
If AYS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.40 cents and EPS of 14.80 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.55.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.70 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.83.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL  BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

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Overnight Price: $14.28

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett has upgraded to Accumulate from Hold with an increased price target to $16.30 from $16.00. The moves suggests we have missed a change in view since early November.

Glad that's been sorted now. Essentially, the broker believes the weakness in share price is not justified given the improving macro-economic background.

Interestingly, the analysts suggest market consensus forecasts are behind the curve and will need to be upgraded post the upcoming interim results release, scheduled for Feb 26.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $14.28 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.09, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 119.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.9, implying annual growth of -11.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 142.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 124.6, implying annual growth of 12.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA  COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks

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Overnight Price: $76.25

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

The broker has had a closer look at CBA's result, leading to a slight increase in forecasts and a lift in target to $72 from $71.

Underweight retained on a modest earnings growth outlook, falling return on equity and a full valuation. The broker also sees slowing home loan growth, downside to margins, ongoing conduct concerns, reduced earnings on asset sales and strategic uncertainty. CBA is the least preferred of the Big Four.

Industry view: In line.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $76.25 Difference: minus $4.25 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $77.75, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 430.00 cents and EPS of 534.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.8, implying annual growth of -3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 430.00 cents and EPS of 546.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 575.0, implying annual growth of 3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 448.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIM  CIMIC GROUP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $45.56

Citi rates CIM as Sell (5) -

Citi increases its estimates for FY18-20 net profit by 6-9% following a review of the 2017 result and transfer of coverage to another analyst. 2017 results were broadly in line and largely driven by construction, mining and a full year of UGL profits.

While the near term news flow is potentially supportive, Citi considers the valuation stretched given heavy exposure to construction activity and inherent risks from legacy issues. Sell rating maintained. Target rises to $36.35 from $29.83.

Target price is $36.35 Current Price is $45.56 Difference: minus $9.21 (current price is over target).
If CIM meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.60, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 136.90 cents and EPS of 228.20 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 231.3, implying annual growth of 6.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 146.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 149.10 cents and EPS of 248.50 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 276.9, implying annual growth of 19.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 152.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIP  CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT

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Overnight Price: $2.43

Morgans rates CIP as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

First half results were in line. The highlight for Morgans was increased occupancy following several leasing transactions which were undertaken.

Guidance is reiterated. As the security price has declined recently, total shareholder return has increased to over 10% and the broker upgrades to Add from Hold. Target is $2.59.

Target price is $2.59 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: $0.16
If CIP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.40 cents and EPS of 19.80 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.27.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.60 cents and EPS of 20.60 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.80.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CKF  COLLINS FOODS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $5.27

Morgans rates CKF as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -

Morgans observes the stock has an attractive growth profile, supported by recent acquisitions in Europe. Australian operations continue to grow through acquisitions and store roll-out and this affords the company the opportunity to execute the same strategy offshore.

The broker suggests offshore operations have potential to grow earnings substantially over the medium to longer term. Morgans initiates coverage with an Add rating and $5.90 target.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $0.63
If CKF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.98, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.5, implying annual growth of 28.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.0, implying annual growth of 14.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CL1  CLASS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $2.78

Morgans rates CL1 as Add (1) -

First half net profit was up 19% in very difficult operating conditions, Morgans observes.

Despite the short-term setbacks, the broker believes the company will continue to take market share and return to double digit growth rates.

Add rating maintained. Target slips to $3.25 from $3.26.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.47
If CL1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.40 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 29.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates CL1 as Buy (1) -

The broker was surprised by second half margin guidance, falling short of forecast, but does not believe it implies a permanent reduction in profitability. The outlook for gross adds is otherwise encouraging, along with low churn and stable pricing.

Class should be able to achieve 40-45% market share from 25% currently, the broker suggests, following a period of industry disruption and competitive activity. Target trimmed to $3.50 from $3.60, Buy retained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.72
If CL1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 29.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates CL1 as Neutral (3) -

First half results were solid, UBS observes, with continued strong uptake of cloud-based SMSF software. The negative features of the result were understandable, in the broker's opinion, as the company faces an aggressive incumbent offering fee holidays.

The broker makes minimal changes to FY18-19 forecasts but lifts estimates from FY20 onwards. Neutral maintained. Target is $2.85.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.07
If CL1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 7.40 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.2.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 29.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMA  CENTURIA METROPOLITAN REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.33

Morgans rates CMA as Add (1) -

First half results were in line with Morgans. The focus remains on metro office markets and the broker notes an attractive FY18 distribution yield of 7.7%, underpinned by 96% of rental income having fixed annual increases of 3.6%.

Add rating. Target lowered to $2.55 from $2.58.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.22
If CMA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 18.70 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.46.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 18.80 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.39.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates CMA as Buy (1) -

First half net profit was marginally weaker than UBS estimated. The broker continues to be attracted to metropolitan office markets, given the relative value versus the core CBD markets, and a view of more sustainable rent growth in the medium term.

Price target is $2.60. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.27
If CMA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.80 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.73.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.10 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.53.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FBU  FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $7.15

Macquarie rates FBU as Underperform (5) -

The company is in a trading halt until February 12, pending further material losses in its building & interiors business. The company expects a consequential breach of one or more of its debt covenants.

Macquarie envisages a risk for more losses in building & interiors and losses and/or reduced margin in the infrastructure book.

Underperform rating is retained. Target is NZ$6.27.

Current Price is $7.15. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 32.29 cents and EPS of 35.52 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 32.30 cents and EPS of 46.33 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.2, implying annual growth of 37.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates FBU as Buy (1) -

The stock is in a trading halt pending review of key projects in the building and interiors business. The board expects further material losses, which ensue post three construction-related downgrades in 2017, will result in the breach of one or more banking covenants.

UBS suggests these latest losses relate to the Commercial Bay project. Trading is expected to recommence on February 12.  Buy rating is maintained. Target is NZ$8.35.

Current Price is $7.15. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 35.98 cents and EPS of 41.51 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 36.48 cents and EPS of 55.19 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.2, implying annual growth of 37.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HIG  HIGHLANDS PACIFIC LIMITED

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $0.08

Morgans rates HIG as Add (1) -

Production from the Ramu nickel joint venture was a record in the December quarter. The company has the right to move to a 20% interest, from its 8.56% stake, and take its proportion of the mixed hydroxide product which is suitable for the lithium battery market.

Meanwhile, the company is in arbitration over the dispute with its partner, Guangdong Rising Assets, over the status of the feasibility study and funding obligation at Frieda River.

Add rating retained. Target is $0.22, with downside, Morgans suggests, should control be ceded to the operator of the Frieda River JV.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.14
If HIG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 175% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents .
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 80.00.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents .
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.00.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HSN  HANSEN TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

IT & Support

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Overnight Price: $3.85

Credit Suisse rates HSN as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Credit Suisse points out that last year's disappointing organic growth rate of 2% followed underlying growth of 10% the year prior. This year, also helped by Enoro, Hansen should be able to achieve growth inside management's targeted 4-8% range, predict the analysts.

Credit Suisse sees margin improvement in FY18, and has now lifted forecasts, and sees potentially more upside in case of upside margin surprise. Target price moves to $4.25 from $3.60.

Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral. The broker notes the shares are trading at a discount vis a vis peers. CS has a so-called 'blue sky' valuation of $5.50.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: $0.4
If HSN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.61 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.26.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.58 cents and EPS of 20.29 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.97.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IFN  INFIGEN ENERGY

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Overnight Price: $0.60

Macquarie rates IFN as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -

The company is endeavouring to identify adjacent opportunities in the renewables market and boasts a development book of over 1GW.

The company has reduced its debt burden and simplified its once global portfolio and offers investors a pure play renewable opportunity, Macquarie observes. The broker initiates coverage with a Neutral rating and $0.69 target.

Target price is $0.69 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.09
If IFN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.67, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.80 cents .
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.1, implying annual growth of -72.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.90 cents .
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.9, implying annual growth of 345.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHG  JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC.

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $43.90

Macquarie rates JHG as Outperform (1) -

December quarter results beat Macquarie's expectations, driven by higher-than-expected performance fees and non-recurring cost benefits.

As merger-related distractions subside, and should recent improvements in performance be sustained, the broker expects better flows in 2018. Outperform rating and $54.14 target, up from $51.12.

Target price is $54.14 Current Price is $43.90 Difference: $10.24
If JHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $54.55, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 196.63 cents and EPS of 358.39 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 296.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 158.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 200.78 cents and EPS of 371.36 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 364.0, implying annual growth of 22.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 180.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGR  MIRVAC GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $2.08

Citi rates MGR as Sell (5) -

Citi observes the residential cycle has turned and the prospect of a guidance upgrade is now much lower than in previous years.

While the material skew to the second half may concern some investors, the broker notes 92% of development profits are secured which makes FY18 guidance achievable.

Target is $2.16. Sell rating retained.

Target price is $2.16 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.08
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.35, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.30 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -50.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 1.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates MGR as Outperform (1) -

First half earnings were ahead of Credit Suisse. FY18 guidance is maintained. Given the skew to the second half the broker suggests a tightening of the range was never on the cards.

The retail portfolio is expected to perform despite the macro headwinds, while the broker considers office is well positioned for a turn in the cycle.

Outperform retained. Target is $2.50.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.42
If MGR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.35, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -50.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 1.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates MGR as Hold (3) -

First half earnings were slightly below Deutsche Bank's forecast. Management has retained its FY18 guidance but remains confident in achieving around 3,400 settlements in FY18.

Hold rating retained. Target ticks up to $2.35 from $2.34.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.27
If MGR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.35, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -50.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 1.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -

First half operating earnings were in line with Macquarie's estimates. The significant skew to the second half was previously flagged, attributed to the timing of settlements in the residential business.

The company has also announced an on-market buyback for up to 2.6% of current securities on issue, as expected.

The broker retains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $2.38 from $2.47.

Target price is $2.38 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.3
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.35, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.30 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -50.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 1.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Underweight (5) -

Mirvac's profit beat the broker by 10%, mostly due to lower tax and interest expense. FY earnings guidance was maintained, with dividend growth of 6% expected. With net tangible asset value increasing and gearing at 23%, a buyback was announced.

This will provide support, the broker notes, and there remains upside in office even at this point in the cycle. Residential is slowing, on the other hand, and 1,300 new lots are set for release in the second half. Underweight and $2.20 target retained.

Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.12
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.35, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -50.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 1.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates MGR as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

A larger second-half skew in the residential business has caused Mirvac's interim report to miss expectations. But management has stuck with FY18 EPS guidance of 15.3–15.6c, representing growth of 6–8%, on the back of a much stronger second-half residential result.

Following a general decline for the listed property sector, Ord Minnett finds Mirvac shares are "inexpensive". Target price has improved to $2.55.

Also, the analysts note there were 249 apartment sales in the first half, showing solid but nevertheless slowing demand. Upgrade to Buy from Hold.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.47
If MGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.35, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -50.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 1.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates MGR as Neutral (3) -

First half net profit was slightly weaker than UBS expected. The company has indicated a large second half skew in earnings, which UBS suggests in a "mixed" residential environment allows uncertainty to prevail.

Offsetting some of this is the announcement of a 2.6% buyback, and there is greater transparency around FY19 and FY20 earnings which the broker suspects will lead to consensus upgrades. Neutral rating and $2.32 target maintained.

Target price is $2.32 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.24
If MGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.35, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -50.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 16.10 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 1.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MHJ  MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Luxury

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Overnight Price: $1.10

Citi rates MHJ as Buy (1) -

The market update suggests first half underlying earnings will be around -10% below Citi's prior forecast. FY18 net profit estimates are lowered by -5% to reflect the trading update.

The broker is not overly concerned as the weakness is likely because of problems in the US and at Emma & Roe. The US business is being shut down and Emma & Roe is being revamped.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.55 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.45
If MHJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.46, suggesting upside of 33.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.10 cents and EPS of 7.90 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.4, implying annual growth of -24.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.90 cents and EPS of 10.20 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of 17.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $19.31

Deutsche Bank rates MIN as Hold (3) -

First half earnings were better than Deutsche Bank expected. The broker lifts FY18 estimates on the back of slightly higher earnings from the Mt Marion services contract and the continuation of a high proportion of iron ore lump sales at Iron Valley in the second half.

Hold rating retained. Target is raised to $19.50 from $19.00.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $19.31 Difference: $0.19
If MIN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.53, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 167.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 145.5, implying annual growth of 35.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 113.00 cents and EPS of 226.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.3, implying annual growth of 56.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

A brief review from the broker notes Mineral Resources' earnings exceeded forecast due to a better iron ore lump premium and higher lithium prices. Iron ore shipment guidance has been revised down due to higher discounts for low grade ore, and is now in line with the broker's expectations.

All other guidance is unchanged. Overweight and $21.60 target retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $21.60 Current Price is $19.31 Difference: $2.29
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.53, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 59.20 cents and EPS of 109.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 145.5, implying annual growth of 35.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 116.60 cents and EPS of 272.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.3, implying annual growth of 56.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB  NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $28.91

Citi rates NAB as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

First quarter cash earnings were ahead of Citi's estimates but this appears to be because of delays in recognising the restructuring provision.

The broker expects FY18 to be a messy year for the bank as it embarks on restructuring. Since the FY17 result the stock has underperformed and Citi now envisages sufficient value to upgrade to Buy from Neutral. Target is $32.25.

Target price is $32.25 Current Price is $28.91 Difference: $3.34
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.81, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 217.60 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.6, implying annual growth of -0.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 227.80 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.0, implying annual growth of 6.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 194.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates NAB as Outperform (1) -

Cash earnings in the first quarter were in line with expectations and Credit Suisse makes compositional changes only to its estimates.

The stock is the broker's top pick among the major banks, reflecting its industry leadership on cost restructuring and productivity.

Outperform rating and $34.50 target retained.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $28.91 Difference: $5.59
If NAB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.81, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 248.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.6, implying annual growth of -0.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 263.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.0, implying annual growth of 6.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 194.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates NAB as Buy (1) -

The first quarter update confirmed for Deutsche Bank that the bank is tracking well against first half expectations. The main positive, in the broker's view, was that the CET1 ratio of 10.2% was stronger than expected.

Buy retained. Target slips to $33.00 from $33.50.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $28.91 Difference: $4.09
If NAB meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.81, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 227.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.6, implying annual growth of -0.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 248.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.0, implying annual growth of 6.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 194.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates NAB as Outperform (1) -

In the wake of the first quarter trading update, Macquarie notes underlying trends are tracking broadly in line with expectations.

Elevated expense growth and the diluting impact of discounted DRPs should result in the weakest earnings growth among peers in FY18, the broker believes.

Yet this is captured in the discounted valuation and, should conditions remain supportive, Macquarie expects NAB's underlying performance to surpass peers in FY19 and FY20. Outperform rating and $32.50 target maintained.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $28.91 Difference: $3.59
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.81, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 237.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.6, implying annual growth of -0.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 171.00 cents and EPS of 239.80 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.0, implying annual growth of 6.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 194.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates NAB as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett saw a mixed first-quarter FY18 trading update, characterised by slightly weak revenue growth, much lower impairments than expected, plus a surprise improvement in NAB's capital position.

Key concerns the analysts had prior have now been allayed. NAB's tilt towards small business banking gives it leverage to improving business credit growth, surmise the analysts. This should insulate it from return on equity pressures in retail banking among the peers.

Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold. Price target improves to $32 from $31. Short term estimates have been reduced, FY19 estimates went up.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $28.91 Difference: $3.09
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.81, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 219.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.6, implying annual growth of -0.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 240.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.0, implying annual growth of 6.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 194.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates NAB as Sell (5) -

The bank's first quarter trading update was subdued, UBS observes. The restructuring provision is expected to be taken in the second quarter and details will not be provided until the first half result in May.

The broker found limited commentary on revenue drivers. UBS maintains current forecasts and retains a Sell rating and $29 target.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $28.91 Difference: $0.09
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.81, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 212.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.6, implying annual growth of -0.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 226.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.0, implying annual growth of 6.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 194.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORA  ORORA LIMITED

Paper & Packaging

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Overnight Price: $3.20

Morgan Stanley rates ORA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley has resumed coverage of plain packaging stocks in Australia. The view is that the sector is not positioned for sustained outperformance, given valuations.

From a macro perspective, Morgan Stanley prefers cyclical exposures in the share market. Rating Equal-weight. Price target $3.50. Sector view is Cautious.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.3
If ORA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.37, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 16.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 8.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG  ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $8.41

Credit Suisse rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse observes, coinciding with an AGL Energy ((AGL)) result for the second time in a row, the company has announced an impairment. Of the $533m, $360m is for Ironbark, following a large reserve downgrade, and $173m relates to the divested Lattice Energy.

While this is immaterial to the near-term view, Credit Suisse is calling the timing "strange". Outperform rating and $9.65 target.

Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $8.41 Difference: $1.24
If ORG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.59, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 54.61 cents .
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 76.05 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.1, implying annual growth of 29.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $76.86

Deutsche Bank rates RIO as Buy (1) -

2017 results were marginally below Deutsche Bank's forecasts and revealed lower net debt and an increased buyback. Deutsche Bank makes only minor adjustments to 2018-20 forecasts.

While speculation on potential acquisitions mounts, the broker expects the company to be disciplined with its capital allocation and continue with its track record on dividends and cash returns.

Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $84.00 from $83.50.

Target price is $84.00 Current Price is $76.86 Difference: $7.14
If RIO meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $82.66, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 374.60 cents and EPS of 635.13 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 620.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 366.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 369.41 cents and EPS of 614.39 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 585.5, implying annual growth of -5.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 352.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates RIO as Buy (1) -

2017 results were largely in line with UBS. The company announced a record final dividend and an additional US$1bn buyback. Strong prices across commodities were a key factor in the results.

UBS believes the company is well-placed to continue delivering healthy returns to shareholders absent of any value-adding acquisitions. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $85 from $79.

Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $76.86 Difference: $8.14
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $82.66, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 334.41 cents and EPS of 553.47 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 620.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 366.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 348.67 cents and EPS of 569.02 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 585.5, implying annual growth of -5.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 352.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TAH  TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $4.55

Citi rates TAH as Buy (1) -

First half results missed Citi's expectations, largely on lower win rates in wagering. Nevertheless, wagering fundamentals appear solid and the broker forecasts 2.2% revenue growth in the segment in the second half, given the soft comparables.

Citi continues to exclude a share buyback in its forecasts, suspecting management may look for potential opportunities such as the WA TAB licence should a tender process eventuate. Buy rating maintained. Target reduced to $5.85 from $6.00.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $1.3
If TAH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 17.10 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of 32.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates TAH as Neutral (3) -

First half results missed expectations and wagering revenue disappointed Credit Suisse. Despite an improving regulatory environment the broker suspects competition will remain intense.

Neutral rating and $5.20 target maintained.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $0.65
If TAH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 17.37 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 22.07 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of 32.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates TAH as Buy (1) -

First half results were weaker than expected. Still, Deutsche Bank believes the company is well positioned given weak comparables in the second half of FY17, the closure of Luxbet, integration of Tatts, and an improving regulatory environment.

Earnings estimates are reduced by -2-5%. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $5.65 from $5.80.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $1.1
If TAH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of 32.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates TAH as Outperform (1) -

First half results were softer than Macquarie expected. The broker remains attracted to the growth prospects and an improving operating environment through regulation.

Wagering/lottery businesses are both cycling soft comparables in the second half and the broker suggests a return to growth may restore investor confidence.

Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $5.60 from $5.88.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $1.05
If TAH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.50 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of 32.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates TAH as Lighten (4) -

Tabcorp's profit result was in line but earnings fell short of the broker on higher Sun Bets losses and lower wagering margins. The dividend also fell short.

Tabcorp is suffering from competition and inhibited growth, the broker notes. Sun Bets remains a risk, as does UBET integration and declining retail turnover. Digital lotteries should provide some relief but target falls to $4.50 from $4.80 and Lighten retained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of 32.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates TAH as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

First half net profit missed UBS estimates. This was explained by a miss in Sun Bets and wagering.

UBS reduces normalised earnings per share forecasts by -14% for FY18 and -7% for FY19, with the changes mainly driven by higher commissions and higher operating costs in wagering. The broker does not believe this is a systemic issue.

Given the -12% share price decline since January the broker upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is reduced to $5.20 from $5.60.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $0.65
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.9.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 21.50 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of 32.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPM  TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication

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Overnight Price: $6.04

UBS rates TPM as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS values the company's NBN bypass option - the means outside the NBN to provide fixed broadband services - at around $250m. Despite this addition to valuation, following the recent run-up on the stock price, the rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral.

The broker emphasises this is not suggesting the mobile foray will fail. However, the roll out is not without risk and, at the current share price, the risk/reward pay-off is insufficient, in the broker's opinion. Target is raised to $6.00 from $5.50.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.04 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If TPM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.74, suggesting downside of -5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.2, implying annual growth of -16.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of -31.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VRL  VILLAGE ROADSHOW LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $3.16

Citi rates VRL as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Improving momentum in theme parks, a reduction in gearing and a drop in the share price has caused Citi to upgrade to Neutral from Sell.

The broker retains ongoing concerns about the cinema exhibition division which, combined with a reasonably full valuation, prevents it from being more bullish at this point.

Recent trading updates suggest Gold Coast theme parks may have finally hit an inflection point following the October 2016 Dreamworld incident. Target is reduced to $3.45 from $3.55.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.16 Difference: $0.29
If VRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 9.50 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.50 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of -32.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WFD  WESTFIELD CORPORATION

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $8.76

Macquarie rates WFD as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the terms of the current proposal for Westfield. The broker remains attracted to the near-term growth profile and the above-sector average earnings growth that is expected.

This could be supplemented by further competitive interest in the company or a change in terms resulting in a higher takeover price. Outperform rating maintained. Target reduced to $10.10 from $10.14.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $8.76 Difference: $1.34
If WFD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.66, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 33.05 cents and EPS of 40.31 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 33.70 cents and EPS of 42.77 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.0, implying annual growth of 6.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGN  WAGNERS HOLDING COMPANY LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $3.86

Macquarie rates WGN as Initiation of coverage with Underperform (5) -

Macquarie initiates coverage with an Underperform rating and $3.25 target. The company has established a strong position in South East Queensland's construction materials market.

The broker's rating is based on a valuation premium that it considers unjustified, versus national players, and the earnings headwinds emanating from a new Queensland cement capacity.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.86 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If WGN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.60 cents and EPS of 14.40 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents .
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of 19.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
AGL AGL ENERGY Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $21.40
Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $21.40
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $21.40
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $21.40
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $21.40
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $21.40
AMC AMCOR Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $14.30
AMP AMP Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $5.21
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.21
Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.21
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.21
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $5.21
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.21
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $5.21
ANN ANSELL Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - UBS Overnight Price $24.82
AQZ ALLIANCE AVIATION Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.70
AYS AMAYSIM AUSTRALIA Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.71
BSL BLUESCOPE STEEL Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $14.28
CBA COMMBANK Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $76.25
CIM CIMIC GROUP Sell - Citi Overnight Price $45.56
CIP CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $2.43
CKF COLLINS FOODS Initiation of coverage with Add - Morgans Overnight Price $5.27
CL1 CLASS Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.78
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.78
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $2.78
CMA CENTURIA METROPOLITAN REIT Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.33
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.33
FBU FLETCHER BUILDING Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $7.15
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $7.15
HIG HIGHLANDS PACIFIC Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.08
HSN HANSEN TECHNOLOGIES Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.85
IFN INFIGEN ENERGY Initiation of coverage with Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.60
JHG JANUS HENDERSON GROUP Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $43.90
MGR MIRVAC Sell - Citi Overnight Price $2.08
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.08
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $2.08
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.08
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.08
Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.08
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $2.08
MHJ MICHAEL HILL Buy - Citi Overnight Price $1.10
MIN MINERAL RESOURCES Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $19.31
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $19.31
NAB NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $28.91
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $28.91
Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $28.91
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $28.91
Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $28.91
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $28.91
ORA ORORA Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.20
ORG ORIGIN ENERGY Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $8.41
RIO RIO TINTO Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $76.86
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $76.86
TAH TABCORP HOLDINGS Buy - Citi Overnight Price $4.55
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.55
Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $4.55
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.55
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.55
Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $4.55
TPM TPG TELECOM Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $6.04
VRL VILLAGE ROADSHOW Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi Overnight Price $3.16
WFD WESTFIELD CORP Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.76
WGN WAGNERS HOLDING Initiation of coverage with Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.86
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

33

2. Accumulate

4

3. Hold

15

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

10

Friday 09 February 2018

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.