Australian Broker Call

Deutsche Bank rates DXS as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank believes, since the appointment of new CEO in 2012, the sale of offshore assets in favour of Sydney office assets has proven positive.

While currently believing the company's office exposure in Sydney is the most attractive market at present, the broker notes office income has lagged peers, notwithstanding a premium to net tangible assets.

The broker forecasts FY18 distributions growth of 4.1%. Deutsche Bank initiates coverage with a Hold rating and $9.00 target.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $9.53 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If DXS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.55, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett expects the company will be able to roll out a number of its proposals which should keep a lid on cost increases. These include more automation, reducing labour costs and increasing feed efficiencies.

The company has also made a number of positive comments regarding pricing, suggesting the wholesale price has remained strong.

The stock offers a 16% compound annual growth rate in earnings per share over FY17-20 and the broker maintains a Buy rating and $6 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $1
If HUO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Sell (5) -

Hurricane Harvey represents an attractive opportunity for James Hardie in the re-building of Houston over the next three years, Citi suggests. Flooding in Houston is estimated to have it damaged 100,000 homes, 40,000 of which need to be demolished.

The company's external cladding market share in Houston is forecast to be in excess of 35% because of low stucco and brick presence. Citi estimates 15% of the company's North American sales volume may be attributable to the Houston market alone.

The question for Citi is whether the company has the ability to service the opportunity, given capacity constraints. As the company is committed to protecting its market share, volume will need to come from elsewhere in an already-stretched network.  Citi maintains a Sell rating and $16 target.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $18.24 Difference: minus $2.24 (current price is over target).
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.65, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie benchmarks cost estimates for the Wodgina spodumene project against industry peers and also recent cost guidance for Mt Marion. The broker assumes costs for Wodgina fall -35%, bringing estimates in line with other large-scale spodumene cost assumptions.

Hence, earnings estimates are upgraded, and recent upgrades to iron ore price forecasts suggest to the broker the company is well-placed to beat FY18 operating earnings guidance of at least $500m.

Outperform rating retained. Target is raised to $20.00 from $17.00.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $16.00 Difference: $4
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.17, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The Western Australian government has proposed an increase in the gold royalty to 3.75% from 2.50%. Macquarie observes high-cost mines will feel the pinch, as a mine with a cash margin of just $100/oz or $200/oz would experience cash profits pre-tax falling -20% and -10% respectively.

The proposed royalty increase has a negligible impact on the earnings outlook for higher-margin producers. However, strong share price performance in recent weeks has pushed some stocks beyond their targets. Macquarie downgrades Northern Star to Neutral from Outperform. Target is $5.40.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.48 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PTM as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley estimates around $120m in inflows in August, confirming the positive trends announced at the results. Nevertheless, the broker considers the valuation full.

This month the company will launch two quoted managed funds listed on the main board. Morgan Stanley expects, combined with strong recent investment performance, this will be supportive for flows. The broker would become more positive if these early signs of inflows are sustained.

Underweight retained. Target: $4.40. Industry View: In Line.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $5.92 Difference: minus $1.52 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting downside of -25.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

The Western Australian government has proposed an increase in the gold royalty to 3.75% from 2.50%. Macquarie observes high-cost mines will feel the pinch, as a mine with a cash margin of just $100/oz or $200/oz would experience cash profits pre-tax falling -20% and -10% respectively.

The proposed royalty increase has a negligible impact on the earnings outlook for higher-margin producers. However, strong share price performance in recent weeks has pushed some stocks beyond their targets.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target is $3.40.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $4.25 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.48, suggesting downside of -18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SAR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The Western Australian government has proposed an increase in the gold royalty to 3.75% from 2.50%. Macquarie observes high-cost mines will feel the pinch, as a mine with a cash margin of just $100/oz or $200/oz would experience cash profits pre-tax falling -20% and -10% respectively.

The proposed royalty increase has a negligible impact on the earnings outlook for higher-margin producers. However, strong share price performance in recent weeks has pushed some stocks beyond their targets.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is $1.50.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $0.085
If SAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SIG as Sell (5) -

First half results were in line and Citi notes challenging conditions continue. The broker considers the stock overvalued relative to the market and given the underlying risks associated with the business.

Citi continues to assume the company loses Chemist Warehouse as a customer at the end of the current service contract. While Sigma continues to negotiate, it expects arbitration is the most likely scenario.

The broker is also wary of the short-term returns on the proposed Sydney distribution centre should the company lose the contract. Sell. Target $0.65.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: minus $0.235 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.75, suggesting downside of -15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SIG as Neutral (3) -

Operating earnings in the first half were in line with prior guidance and Credit Suisse forecasts. Sales revenue was below the broker's forecasts but this was countered by better gross margin performance.

The broker expects, with PBS revenue expected to remain under pressure, higher growth of non-PBS revenue, as well as the potential winding back of the remaining trade discounts to pharmacy, should sustain gross profit growth through FY18.

Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $0.89 from $0.85.

Target price is $0.89 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.005
If SIG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.75, suggesting downside of -15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SIG as Sell (5) -

First half results were in line with the company's previous downgrade. Trading EBIT fell -8.7%.

UBS observes limited data on segment growth rates. The company expects PBS growth to be flat in the second half and growth of 3-5% in FY19. The dispute with Chemist Warehouse is in mediation.

UBS maintains a Sell rating and 70c target.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: minus $0.185 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.75, suggesting downside of -15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Neutral (3) -

GLNG will divert a further 30PJ of gas to the domestic market in 2018/19.

GLNG partners are taking the opportunity of the company's gas supply in the Cooper Basin and strong demand/prices to reduce contracted LNG volumes over the next few years.

UBS expects the impact for Santos should be marginally positive. Neutral maintained. Target is $3.95.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.98, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYR as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie reviews its forecasts, expecting over time that the company will become a leading supplier of both traditional and battery anode graphite products.

Nevertheless, near-term technical risk continues to outweigh the longer-term view on the stock. Neutral maintained. Target is lifted 9% to $3.50.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: $0.2
If SYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.67, suggesting upside of 41.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VOC as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett has now more confidence around FY18 guidance and finds the current level an attractive entry point for the stock. Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target is reduced to $3.00 from $3.30.

For a company expected to be able to grow core operating earnings at low-to-mid-single digits in the near and medium term Vocus is the broker's preferred stock in the sector following a reset of expectations.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.55 Difference: $0.45
If VOC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VRL as Neutral (3) -

Village Roadshow has entered a sale and lease-back for the Gold Coast theme parks freehold. Macquarie observes this deal reinforces the company's commitment to de-leveraging with the proceeds to be used to reduce debt and improve the balance sheet.

The broker believes the main challenge for the company is restoring credibility following successive downgrades and operating conditions remain uncertain.

Neutral retained. Target rises to $3.95 from $3.80.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $0.25
If VRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WPL as Sell (5) -

Citi expects prevailing weakness in LNG markets to continue for some time. The broker now models losses from Corpus Christi LNG trading, which reduces earnings by around -10% for 2020-22 and reduces the risked valuation by -1%.

The broker's earnings forecasts are now -39% below consensus for 2019 and a dividend yield of only 3.4% is forecast. Citi considers, at the current price, the stock is not a low-risk story. Sell maintained. Target reduced to $27.16 from $27.49.

Target price is $27.16 Current Price is $29.13 Difference: minus $1.97 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.00, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources