Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Equal-weight (3) -

Previewing AGL Energy's FY25 results due on August 13, Morgan Stanley notes underlying net profit guidance of $580–710m is in line with expectations. Forecasts by the broker and consensus are for $672m and $657m, respectively.

The analysts expect first-time FY26 guidance to be broadly consistent with consensus, forecasting $657m versus consensus at $671m, with higher pool prices offset by increased depreciation and amortisation.

Morgan Stanley's dividend forecast for FY26 stands at 54cps fully franked, equating to 55% payout of net profit, slightly above the 53cps market consensus.

The Equal-weight rating and $11.88 target are maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

The broker's preferred stocks under coverage in the Utilities sector are Cleanaway on defensive positioning with growth, and AGL Energy on leverage to data centre power demand.

Target price is $11.88 Current Price is $9.73 Difference: $2.15
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.70, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AL3 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights a flash update for AML3D with the announcement of a $1.2m receipt for the Portable Arcemy system order from the US Navy's Additive Manufacturing Centre of Excellence in Danville, Virginia.

The analyst views the new order as evidence of robust support from the US Navy for AML3D and its technology, with two systems now operating at the centre, run by Austal USA ((ASB)).

Bell Potter retains a Speculative Buy rating. Target set at 35c.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.03
If AL3 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of AMP's 1H25 result on August 7, UBS is forecasting FY25 EPS of 11c vs the consensus of 10.8c. The broker's FY25 DPS forecast is -6.5% lower than the consensus.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $1.35.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.54, suggesting downside of -9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APA as Equal-weight (3) -

Reviewing FY25 results for APA Group due on August 20, Morgan Stanley notes FY25 underlying earnings guidance of $1,960–2,020m is in line with the broker's expectations.

Earnings are being supported by stronger second-half power generation, notes the broker, and compare with the analysts' estimate of $2,014m and consensus at $2,009m.

The broker expects initial FY26 guidance to modestly exceed market expectations, forecasting $2,190m versus consensus at $2,161m.

Morgan Stanley's preferred stocks under coverage in the Utilities sector are Cleanaway on defensive positioning with growth, and
AGL Energy on leverage to data centre power demand.

Equal-weight. Target $8.55. The industry view remains In-Line.

Target price is $8.55 Current Price is $8.28 Difference: $0.27
If APA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.98, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects Eagers Automotive to deliver first-half 2025 pre-tax profit of $185.5m, in line with guidance, and sees upside risk following strong new vehicle sales in May and June.

Despite elevated competition and discounting pressure, the broker sees scope for $405m full-year profit, aided by second-half incentives, lower interest rates and ongoing operational execution.

Earnings appear resilient to the analysts, with flat 1H25 pre-tax profit versus both 1H24 and 2H24 viewed as evidence of strategic delivery in the absence of one-off benefits.

Morgan Stanley believes a valuation premium is warranted by de-risked execution and forward momentum. An Overweight rating and a target price of $20 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $19.58 Difference: $0.42
If APE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.54, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APE as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS raises its target for Eagers Automotive to $16.50 from $14.80 due to higher peer multiples.

The rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral on valuation concerns as interest in offshore expansion, particularly into Canada, generates investor debate.

The broker sees strategic logic in Canada due to the company's capped domestic Toyota share, the market's fragmentation, and opportunities to partner with new OEMs or distribution models like BYD.

On the flipside, the analysts note high M&A activity, limited greenfield growth, and high acquisition multiples, making value-accretive deals difficult to find.

The broker sees modest EPS accretion under conservative gearing assumptions, but cautions traditional dealer roll-up strategies appear underwhelming unless paired with innovative models.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $19.58 Difference: minus $3.08 (current price is over target).
If APE meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.54, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BDM as Speculative Hold (3) -

At current diamond pricing, Burgundy Diamond Mines' Point Lake sample highlighted it is not economic, and the miner has announced mining will be suspended, with focus to shift to mining and processing ore from Misery underground and stockpiles.

Bell Potter estimates operating Misery without Point Lake will lower Ekati production to 3–3.5Mtpa from 4.6–5Mtpa, and operating costs will decline notably.

The analyst flags another weak quarterly update for the June period and notes a mine plan will update near-term production expectations and future growth.

Bell Potter retains a Speculative Hold, stressing the company is highly leveraged to diamond prices and there are balance sheet risks with prices depressed. The target price slips to 4.5c from 5c.

Target price is $0.05 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.015
If BDM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie notes BHP Group's June quarter report beat expectations on most metrics, and FY25 units cost comments pointed to an in-line outcome. FY26 guidance was also in line with consensus.

The impact on the broker's forecasts was mixed, with FY25 EPS rising 4% but FY26 cut by -6%, mainly on a -5% cut to the EBITDA forecast.

The cost blowout at the Jansen potash mine points to future execution risk of the company's capital program, though the broker believes the deferral of stage 2 is prudent. EPS forecasts for FY28-30 trimmed slightly on stage 2 deferral.

Target rises to $41 from $40. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $40.29 Difference: $0.71
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.15, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes stronger-than-expected fourth quarter production across all divisions for BHP Group, led by copper, iron ore, met coal and energy coal.

Production beat broker and consensus forecasts, with copper at 516kt (up 3.8% versus consensus), iron ore at 70.3mt (up 2.7%), met coal at 5.1mt (up 9.5%) and NSW energy coal at 4.1t, a beat of 14.2%.

Despite volume outperformance, weaker realised pricing results in a neutral impact to second-half earnings (EBITDA) forecasts, explains the broker.

Guidance for 2026 production is in line with consensus but slightly below the analysts' numbers, implying a -3% earnings forecast impact.

Management raised capex for Jansen Stage 1 to US$7.0–7.4bn from US$5.7bn and delays Stage 2 to FY31. Total iron ore production guidance (BHP's share) of 258-269.5mt missed consensus by only -0.5%.

Overweight rating and $44 target retained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $40.29 Difference: $3.71
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.15, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett highlights a "solid" June quarter update from BHP Group, with copper, thermal, and coking coal all better than anticipated and exceeding market expectations. Iron ore came in line with forecasts and achieved record shipments and production for FY25.

Capex at the Jansen potash project in Canada has blown out by an additional 23%-30% to US$7-US$7.4bn, with first production delayed until mid-2027. This has resulted in management reconsidering Stage 2 of Jansen, the analyst highlights.

Production guidance for FY26 infers copper output will be down -6% on FY25 and copper equivalent down -3% due to lower grades at Escondida. Costs are expected to fall as strong volumes in 2H25 scale.

Ord Minnett has lowered EPS estimates by -5% for FY25 and -2% for FY26. No change to the Accumulate rating and $41 target price.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $40.29 Difference: $0.71
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.15, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes BHP Group's June quarter performance slightly beat its forecast and the consensus and FY25 unit cost was in line. The FY26 guidance signalled slightly weaker y/y copper volumes, flat iron ore and stronger met coal, all largely as expected.

The disappointment was an update on the Jansen potash mine, where capex is expected to be around US$7.0-7.4bn vs US$5.7bn at project sanction. The company is also considering delaying the commencement of stage 1 by six months and stage 2 by two years due to weak market conditions.

Minor changes to the broker's FY25-26 earnings forecasts, with a small downgrade to FY27 due to Jansen delay.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $40.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $40.29 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $42.15, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CWY as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes Cleanaway Waste Management’s FY25 EBIT guidance of $395–425m is in line with the broker's and consensus expectations for $410m. Results are due on August 20.

For FY26, management is guiding to $450m in earnings excluding acquisitions, versus the broker at $489m and consensus at $495m.

Key drivers include full-year contributions from recent acquisitions, operational efficiencies, and integration of Citywide Waste and Contract Resources, explain the analysts.

Target $3.18. Overweight. Industry View: In-Line.

The broker's preferred stocks under coverage in the Utilities sector are Cleanaway on defensive positioning with growth, and AGL Energy on leverage to data centre power demand.

Target price is $3.18 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $0.3
If CWY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DGT as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of Digico Infrastructure REIT with a Hold rating and a $3.40 target price.

The analyst is positive on the outlook for data centres over the medium to longer term, forecasting a 15% three-year compound average growth rate in baseload compute and AI-driven increases in workloads to support demand.

There are also high barriers to entry due to the physical scale of the centres, the development costs, and power supply availability and security.

The broker highlights that Digico is working towards Hosting Certification Framework (HCF) approval to secure Australian government departments as customers for SYD1, which has around 62MW of planned capacity versus 26MW currently installed.

Raising co-investment capital for this project and de-leveraging the balance sheet is viewed as important for the REIT.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.16
If DGT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting upside of 40.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GMG as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of Goodman Group with a Buy rating and a $39.25 target price.

The analyst is positive on the outlook for data centres over the medium to longer term, forecasting a 15% three-year compound average growth rate in baseload compute and AI-driven increases in workloads to support demand.

There are also high barriers to entry due to the physical scale of the centres, the development costs, and power supply availability and security.

Bell Potter views Goodman as having a robust reputation for delivering well above expectations and describes it as having "best-in-class" tenant relationships and a strong management team.

The pivot to data centres has the potential to deliver strong gains, with work in progress for this segment expected to rise to 46% in FY26 from 30% in FY23.

Target price is $39.25 Current Price is $34.97 Difference: $4.28
If GMG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.24, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GOR as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS highlights the surprise in Gold Road Resources' June quarterly was the $300/oz lift in cost to $2,928/oz, higher than its forecast of $2,531/oz. Production of 72.98koz at an average realised price of $5,131/oz was pre-reported.

While the company didn't provide a reason for the higher cost, it was noted the rise was a sector-wide trend. The broker now expects the FY25 cost to come at the top end of $2,400-2,600/oz guidance and production at the low end of 325-355koz.

Target cut to $3.25 from $3.55 in line with the Gold Fields takeover offer price. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.05
If GOR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HUB as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights a report from the Institute of Managed Account Professionals stating the managed account market in Australia is expected to grow 20% over 2025-26.

The broker believes Hub24 is well placed to benefit from this. Buy. Target unchanged at $105.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $105.59 Difference: minus $0.59 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $92.43, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

UBS highlights Aon expects global catastrophe costs to reach at least US$100bn in 1H25, well above the average of the past decade.

The broker expects Insurance Australia Group's catastrophe costs in FY25 to rise $200m above the budget.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $9.30.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $8.51 Difference: $0.79
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.98, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates INA as Buy (1) -

Citi maintains a Buy rating on Ingenia Communities, noting while the stock is up around 15% year-to-date, most gains occurred earlier in the year. The share price is down -3% over the past three months and underperforming REIT and residential peers.

Despite the recent pullback, the broker points out consensus EPS forecasts have been revised up 15-20% year-to-date, and the macro environment could turn more favourable with potential rate cuts.

Citi slightly trims its forecasts ahead of August reporting but remains 2–2.5% above consensus for FY25-FY27 and expects Ingenia to beat its FY25 EPS guidance of 29-30c.

The analysts re-iterate Ingenia as their top pick in the land lease sector, citing double-digit EPS growth potential over FY26–FY27.

Buy rating. The target is lowered to $6.20 from $6.50.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.25 Difference: $0.95
If INA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.90, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IRI as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights a robust trading update for FY25 from Integrated Research, which met expectations.

Revenue guidance came in below anticipated, prompting the analyst to lower the FY25 forecast, with an upgrade in FY25 earnings (EBITDA) in line with updated guidance.

Cash at the bank stood at $40.6m versus the broker's estimate of $38.5m, resulting in a lift to the dividend per share forecast, now expected to be flat on FY24.

Bell Potter's FY26 and FY27 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts have been lowered by -26% and -35% due to higher opex assumptions. Commentay posits Integrated Research should remain cash flow positive and profitable.

The target price slips -13% to 70c from 80c, with the Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.27
If IRI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes the Australian Prime Property Fund (APPF) platform currently contributes approximately $50–60m per year in earnings (EBITDA) to Lendlease.

These earnings are supported by around $10bn in assets under management and a $750m equity stake, explain the analysts.

Should Lendlease lose control of the APPF platform to Mirvac Group (as per recent press reports), the broker estimates a -9% impact to the company's FY26 net profit, alongside a reduction in gearing of around -4%.

Strategically, the loss would be significant, according to the broker, as APPF has historically served as a key end-holder of Lendlease developments, including major projects such as Victoria Cross.

While Lendlease has reportedly responded to competitive pressure by offering fee reductions, the final decision rests with underlying APPF investors, explains the broker.

Equal-weight. Target $7.12. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $7.12 Current Price is $5.26 Difference: $1.86
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.61, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Ord Minnett downgrades Lynas Rare Earths to Sell from Hold, as the analyst believes the share price rally following the July 11 announcement by the US Department of Defence with MP Materials is misguided.

The elevation of MP Materials to the US’s favoured rare earth mine-to-magnet supplier is likely to make Lynas' Seadrift separation plant not viable, as it would impact the US Department of Defence's pricing with MP Materials, the analyst explains.

Lynas should benefit from higher rare earth prices in the West, but expectations of prices around MP’s guaranteed level of US$110/kg for NdPr for its Asian customers are very unlikely, Ord Minnett states.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $9.99 Difference: minus $2.19 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.04, suggesting downside of -20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MAU as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Magnetic Resources published its June quarterly report, which included the only new information: a cash balance of $7.9m at the end of the quarter after spending -$2.4m for operational activities.

Shaw and Partners notes a Definitive Feasibility Study for the Lady Julie gold project is due next month, where it expects a 2.7mtpa plant producing 136kozpa over an initial 10-year mine life.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at $2.53.

Target price is $2.53 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $1.11
If MAU meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MFG as Buy (1) -

Ahead of Magellan Financial's FY25 result on August 20, UBS' FY25 EPS forecast is -3.1% below consensus and FY26 is -0.9% lower.

Buy. Target unchanged at $9.50.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $9.91 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.23, suggesting downside of -16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Equal-weight (3) -

Should Mirvac Group assume control of the Australian Prime Property Fund Platform (APPF) from Lendlease, Mirvac’s FY26 profit could rise by 2.5%, according to Morgan Stanley. This outcome assumes Lendlease’s $750m equity stake in the APPF funds is acquired.

Gearing for Mirvac would also increase by 3.0-3.5%, highlight the analysts.

Morgan Stanley notes management at Mirvac has reportedly offered a fee cut to 30bps as an incentive for APPF investors to move to its stewardship.

Neither company has formally commented, observes the broker.

Equal-weight. Target $2.45. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.2
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.32, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MSB as Speculative Buy (1) -

Mesoblast's quarterly update showed cash flow of US$13.2m from Ryoncil's gross sales, which met Bell Potter's expectations, including sales to the distributor.

The broker notes operating cash burn stood at -US$16.6m, including US$1.1m in customer receipts, and is expected to decline as revenue growth improves and receivables are collected in the next few weeks.

Cash at quarter end was US$161m, with net cash of around US$40m. Speculative Buy retained. Target lifts to $3.50 from $3.40. No changes to the analyst's EPS estimates.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: $1.09
If MSB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NGI as Buy (1) -

Navigator Global Investments' June quarter update was slightly better than Ord Minnett's estimate due to a 5% rise in NGI Strategic AUM while the Lighthouse segment was broadly flat.

The broker notes the Lighthouse funds performed well, and the overall business is now on track to deliver FY25 EBITDA at the upper half of guidance.

The broker's forecast is US$108.3m vs guidance of US$106-110m. Minor changes to AUM estimates. Buy. Target unchanged at $2.65.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $1.83 Difference: $0.82
If NGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NHF as Buy (1) -

Ahead of nib Holdings' FY25 result on August 26, UBS notes its FY25 EPS forecast of 37.7c is 0.9% higher than the consensus.

Buy. Target unchanged at $7.85.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $7.34 Difference: $0.51
If NHF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.07, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley previews Origin Energy's results FY25 results due on August 14 (quarterly update on July 31). The company's FY25 energy markets earnings guidance of $1.3–1.4bn aligns with the broker's estimate of $1.336bn and consensus at $1.355bn.

Looking to FY26, Morgan Stanley forecasts $1.595bn in energy markets earnings and APLNG production of 669PJ, reflecting steady field depletion.

Dividends are expected to remain stable at 60cps in FY25 and FY26, representing 123% and 63% of free cash flow respectively, consistent with Origin’s policy to pay out at least 50%, explain the analysts.

The broker's preferred stocks under coverage in the Utilities sector are Cleanaway on defensive positioning with growth, and AGL Energy on leverage to data centre power demand.

Origin Energy is less preferred by the analysts within the peer group on valuation grounds, though a potential Kraken monetisation remains a key risk to the Underweight thesis.

Underweight. Target is unchanged at $9.46. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $9.46 Current Price is $12.00 Difference: minus $2.54 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.10, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PLS as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has marked-to-market lithium prices for the June quarter for Pilbara Minerals to an average, with spodumene concentrate (6%) at US$794/t, which is -15% lower than expected, and lithium hydroxide at US$8,625/t, some -9% lower than anticipated.

The analyst has raised the AUD forex forecast for FY26 to US$0.66 from US$0.63 previously, while the long-term rate remains unchanged at US$0.70.

June quarter production and sales are forecast by Bell Potter at 200kt, at a unit cost of $611/t FOB, with FOB unit costs at the lower end of the miner's guidance.

The broker’s FY25 EPS forecast moves to a loss of -0.4c from 0.3c per share, and the FY26 estimate is lowered by -23%.

The Buy rating and $2.00 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.29
If PLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.58, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights Aon expects global catastrophe costs to reach at least US$100bn in 1H25, well above the average of the past decade.

Still, the broker expects QBE Insurance to show catastrophe costs tracking in line with the budget at the 1H25 result, given its budget is conservatively set at 80% adequacy.

The insurer's update in April also suggested catastrophe costs were trending in line despite -US$200m exposure to LA wildfires.

Buy. Target unchanged at $26.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $23.15 Difference: $2.85
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.71, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates REA as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter notes PropTrack's June new listings showed a decline of -3% against the broker's forecast of 4% growth on a year earlier and marks the first time since July 2023 that REA Group has recorded three consecutive months of a decline in listings.

The analyst estimates REA's FY25 listing growth at circa 0.7%, which is below the current forecast of 1.3% growth and lower than management's last guidance of 1-2% growth for FY25.

This implies volumes shrank by -4% in 2H25 compared to growth of 5% in 1H25. Bell Potter lowers its FY25 EPS estimate by -0.9%, with the FY26 EPS forecast unchanged.

No change to the Hold rating and $262 target.

Target price is $262.00 Current Price is $240.06 Difference: $21.94
If REA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $268.14, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REA as Neutral (3) -

Australian residential listing volumes grew 1% in FY25 according to the PropTrack report, prompting Macquarie to lower its forecast for REA Group's FY25 listing volumes to 1% from 1.5% prior.

The broker is positive about the outlook for listings in the medium term, with 75bps of interest rate cuts until February 2026 expected to support the housing market. At the FY25 result, net profit of $567m is estimated, up 23% y/y and in line with consensus.

FY25-27 EPS forecasts cut by -2%. Target lowered to $260 from $265. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $260.00 Current Price is $240.06 Difference: $19.94
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $268.14, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

Citi assesses South32's June quarter production to be broadly in line with its expectations, with alumina and manganese falling short but copper and aluminium outperforming. The broker expects the update to be net neutral for the share price today.

Overall, the company exceeded FY25 production guidance by 2% and flagged operating unit cost in line with guidance.

FY25 group capex, excluding EAIs and Hermosa, is expected to be -US$400m, while Hermosa growth capex is expected at -US$517m.

The company will provide revised FY26 guidance with the FY25 result Neutral. Target unchanged at $3.40.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $0.51
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.51, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SDF as Buy (1) -

Ahead of Steadfast Group's FY25 result on August 29, UBS notes its EPS forecast of 31.3c is marginally lower than the consensus of 31.4c.

Buy. Target unchanged at $6.85.

Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $6.00 Difference: $0.85
If SDF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.79, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SEK as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reaffirms Seek as its top pick in Australian classifieds, supported by an FY26 upgrade thesis anchored in revenue upside and operating leverage.

The broker expects FY25 profit of $155m, down -13% year-on-year and in line with consensus and company guidance of $135–160m. Results are due on August 19.

Asia remains a small contributor to earnings, and while the freemium model remains under debate, Macquarie believes regional results can stabilise.

The broker values Seek’s assets at $22.25/share and its investments at $4.75/share (with a -20% discount applied), noting Seek may redeem 25% of its Growth Fund interest from early 2026.

Macquarie raises its target price to $27 from $26.75 and maintains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $24.32 Difference: $2.68
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.31, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SPZ as Buy (1) -

Smart Parking's trading update shows strong operational momentum, assesses Shaw and Partners, with the US business performing ahead of expectations.

The Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) technology has been rolled out to 15 sites earlier than forecast by the broker.

The company reported 1,678 active sites globally as of April, nearly reaching the June year-end target of 1,687, and re-affirmed its long-term goal of 3,000 sites by December 2028.

The US acquisition, Peak Parking, is delivering to plan, while New Zealand operations are gaining share and generating high-margin growth, highlights the analyst.

No change to Buy, High-Risk rating and $1.25 target.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.4
If SPZ meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Accumulate (2) -

Santos' June quarter production came in slightly above market expectations at 22.2?mmbbl, with flooding in WA impacting the Cooper Basin.

Ord Minnett notes sales revenue was 7% higher than expectations, resulting from inventory draw downs, robust pricing, and third-party sales.

Free cash flow came in at US$620m, with a 1H2025 dividend of USD13.5c per share expected versus consensus at USD8c per share.

The exclusive due diligence period ends on July 25, with an update flagged for Santos' August 20 1H2025 results announcement.

Ord Minnett has raised its target price to $8.89 to reflect the takeover. No change to the Accumulate rating.

Target price is $8.89 Current Price is $7.80 Difference: $1.09
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.33, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WES as Lighten (4) -

In light of retail industry data and discussions, as well as changes to lithium price forecasts, Ord Minnett has reviewed earnings forecasts for Wesfarmers.

The broker notes the expected loss at Covalent Lithium at -$60m meets the company's guidance, with the projected loss for FY26 up by 14%.

Retail data supports a rise in Kmart's earnings forecasts for 2H2025, while competition continues to impact margins for Healthcare. Bunnings' forecasts remain unchanged, and better performances for Chemicals, Energy, and Fertiliser are now expected.

A Lighten rating is retained. The target price lifts to $72 from $69, with the analyst raising EPS estimates by 2% for FY25 and 0.2% for FY26.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $84.57 Difference: minus $12.57 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $72.75, suggesting downside of -13.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources