Australian Broker Call
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October 06, 2022
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
JHG - | Janus Henderson | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
Overnight Price: $14.04
Macquarie rates AKE as Outperform (1) -
Allkem continues its Mt Cattlin drilling program, with first phase drilling aiming to convert 3.2m tonnes of 1.2% lithium oxide from resource to reserve while the second phase will test mineral resource extensions.
Macquarie likes that drilling offers near-term potential upside to reserve, and believes the company has a number of projects that will offer medium-term production upside. Despite Allkem's share price rising 35% in 2022 the broker sees material upside to its base case at current spot prices.
The Outperform rating and target price of $21.00 are retained.
Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $14.04 Difference: $6.96
If AKE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.80, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 87.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.3, implying annual growth of 22.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 181.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.8, implying annual growth of 36.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AKE as Buy (1) -
In discussions with management of Canadian-based lithium miner Patriot Metals, UBS noted that sentiment towards lithium (previously marred by failed production attempts in Canada) has been steadily improving.
One factor in the improved outlook has been an increased focus on supply chain security, which provides additional motivation for North American projects, explains the analyst.
The broker remains structurally positive on the sector and notes Allkem has aspirations in the region via its James Bay project. The Buy rating and $18.70 target are unchanged.
Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $14.04 Difference: $4.66
If AKE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.80, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 143.28 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.3, implying annual growth of 22.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 92.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.8, implying annual growth of 36.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.17
Credit Suisse rates AMP as No Rating (-1) -
Credit Suisse marks to market Australian Platform earnings for the September quarter and downgrades estimates accordingly.
EPS forecasts fall an average of -1% to -2% across the sector.
Overall, however, the broker remains positive on the sector, noting strong flows.
The broker says AMP proved more resilient than peers given improved loan growth in its bank.
Current Price is $1.17. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $1.05, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of -21.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ARB ARB CORPORATION LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $29.86
Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -
Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries data show new vehicle sales burst from the barrier in the September quarter, after retreating by -2.1% in FY22 thanks to a weak June half. Sales jumped 12.3% in September after rising 17.3% in August.
Ord Minnett says the big plus for ARB Corp was a 21.5% jump in SUV sales. Light Commercial Vehicle sales rose 11.1%.
The broker considers ARB Corp will continue to deliver reliable earnings growth and expects sales are likely to continue posting above-average growth.
Buy rating retained. Target price steady at $39,
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $29.86 Difference: $9.14
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.31, suggesting upside of 29.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 154.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.7, implying annual growth of -5.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 81.50 cents and EPS of 169.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.2, implying annual growth of 10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $19.69
Macquarie rates AUB as Outperform (1) -
AUB Group has completed its acquisition of Tysers two months earlier than Macquarie had anticipated. The earlier completion drives a 3% upgrade to the broker's earnings per share assumptions for FY23.
With 25% of Tysers' revenues in British pounds and 55% in US dollars, the broker expects hedging to manage exposure to volatile markets will reduce earnings impacts for AUB Group.
Following a period of research restriction, Macquarie resumes with an Outperform rating and a target price of $24.07.
Target price is $24.07 Current Price is $19.69 Difference: $4.38
If AUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.79, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 109.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.8, implying annual growth of -29.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 125.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.4, implying annual growth of 20.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $40.50
Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -
While describing BHP Group's near-tem production creep for its WA iron ore operations to 300m tonnes per annum as low hanging fruit, Macquarie notes achieving its greater target of 330m tonnes per annum would require material capital investment.
The company's port and rail debottlenecking project is underway, and should support the lower target, while study results for the higher target are expected in 2025.
The Outperform rating and target price of $45.00 are retained.
Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $40.50 Difference: $4.5
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $41.52, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 261.27 cents and EPS of 348.22 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 497.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 361.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 307.63 cents and EPS of 409.47 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 420.8, implying annual growth of -15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 309.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett takeouts from the second and third days of BHP Group's iron ore operations tour included:
-production guidance appears conservative; capital expenditure to meet targets is likely to be expensive;
-staff turnover is low thanks to strong female participation (double the industry average) and a good culture;
-and shiploaders and berths are creating a bottleneck at the port but BHP has been granted another two berths.
BHP remains the broker's preferred sector pick.
The Hold rating and target price of $41.00 are retained but the broker is reviewing forecasts.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $40.50 Difference: $0.5
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $41.52, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 310.44 cents and EPS of 442.48 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 497.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 361.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 271.11 cents and EPS of 389.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 420.8, implying annual growth of -15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 309.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CSL CSL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $290.50
Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley notes the main debate on CSL centres around plasma market dynamics, where general consensus is for a positive trajectory.
On another debate, the broker awaits a clearer rationale behind the Vifor acquisition at the company's investor day on October 17.
Vifor is (mostly) a chronic kidney disease (CKD) company, however the analyst expects sales of owned Korsuva ex US could potentially exceed the broker's current forecasts.
Korsuva is the only on-label treatment for Pruritus (itchy skin caused by dryness) and should the treatment capture just 5% of the ex-US market in 2025, EPS for CSL could lift by around 4%.
The Overweight rating and $323 target are retained. Industry View: In-line.
Target price is $323.00 Current Price is $290.50 Difference: $32.5
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $324.80, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 456.24 cents and EPS of 775.39 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 852.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 395.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 580.98 cents and EPS of 958.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1052.2, implying annual growth of 23.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 480.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.15
Macquarie rates CXO as Outperform (1) -
Assay results from Core Lithium's final three holes at its BP33 resource have highlighted material spodumene interceptions. Macquarie suggests recent exploration success offers upside to the resource base and mine life.
A recent $100m placement will largely be used to accelerate Core Lithium's exploration program in the coming year, as well as early works at BP33.
The Outperform rating and target price of $1.70 are retained.
Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.55
If CXO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.50 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.10 cents and EPS of 20.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DHG DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED
Real Estate
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Overnight Price: $3.57
UBS rates DHG as Buy (1) -
Recent data show a slow start to spring selling for real estate, and given the pace of listing volume declines over the last month, UBS lowers its FY23 listing volume forecast for Domain Holdings Australia.
The market is pricing-in greater declines, but UBS sees a more moderate house price decline scenario of -13-15%, with support from the resumption of migration and low supply. Tight rental markets and strong employment are expected to lend additional support.
The Buy rating is unchanged, while the target falls to $4.00 from $4.50.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.43
If DHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 96.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.5, implying annual growth of 16.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GUD G.U.D. HOLDINGS LIMITED
Household & Personal Products
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Overnight Price: $8.20
Ord Minnett rates GUD as Buy (1) -
Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries data show new vehicle sales burst from the barrier in the September quarter, after retreating by -2.1% in FY22 thanks to a weak June half. Sales jumped 12.3% in September after rising 17.3% in August.
Ord Minnett explains that while G.U.D. Holdings' sales are typically skewed to used vehicles, the purchase of APG in the June half has changed that channel mix.
The broker says that hence when G.U.D. Holdings downgraded FY23 guidance it reflected on weakness in new vehicle sales but now the September reversal is a positive sign, particular given average monthly growth in Ford Ranger sales (an important model for the company), grew 24% on the June half.
FX headwinds remain as US dollar hedges roll off in the second half, says the broker, particularly if spot prices remain high.
But 66% of gross debt balances are fixed or hedged against floating rates, says Ord Minnett, and if, as new vehicle sales suggest, higher than forecast APG income reduces debt, a re-rating could be on the cards.
Buy rating retained. Target price steady at $12.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $8.20 Difference: $3.8
If GUD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.52, suggesting upside of 40.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 78.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.5, implying annual growth of 256.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 88.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.3, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HUB HUB24 LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $23.50
Credit Suisse rates HUB as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse marks to market Australian Platform earnings for the September quarter and downgrades estimates accordingly.
EPS forecasts fall an average of -1% to -2% across the sector.
Overall, however, the broker remains positive on the sector, noting strong flows.
EPS forecasts for Hub24 fall -2% in FY23; are steady in FY24; and fall -1% in FY25.
The broker expects Hub24 will continue to build market share given its advisor-build, and spies cross-selling opportunities in the SMSF market.
Capital expenditure remains a sore point and the broker expects this could weigh on near-term performance.
Outperform rating retained. Target price steady at $33.
Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $23.50 Difference: $9.5
If HUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.76, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 71.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.5, implying annual growth of 209.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.6, implying annual growth of 19.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IFL INSIGNIA FINANCIAL LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $3.09
Credit Suisse rates IFL as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse marks to market Australian Platform earnings for the September quarter and downgrades estimates accordingly.
EPS forecasts fall an average of -1% to -2% across the sector.
Overall, however, the broker remains positive on the sector, noting strong flows.
EPS forecasts for Insignia Financial fall -2% in FY23; -3% in FY24; and -2%. in FY25.
The broker appreciates the company's strong financial performance, albeit FY23 guidance was disappointing but believes there is room for an independent financial service in the sector and that the business is undergoing a transformation program.
Outperform rating and $4.30 target price retained.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $1.21
If IFL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 33.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of 463.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.7, implying annual growth of 11.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
JHG JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $33.31
Credit Suisse rates JHG as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
Credit Suisse marks to market asset managers for the September quarter and downgrades earnings estimates accordingly.
EPS forecast fall an average of -5% to -6% across the sector over FY23 to FY25.
The analyst considers the sector's -30% trading discount to the market to be justified given negative flows and market uncertainty.
The broker also downgrades Janus Henderson to Underperform from Neutral and cuts the target price to $29 from $31.50.
EPS forecasts fall -3% in FY23; -8% in FY24; and -9% in FY25.
Credit Suisse's earnings forecasts sit -20% below consensus forecasts for FY23 and FY24, believing the asset manager faces a strong strategic investment bill going forward, not to mention margin compression as markets continue to weaken on top of a likely continuation of outflows.
Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $33.31 Difference: minus $4.31 (current price is over target).
If JHG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $31.57, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 219.13 cents and EPS of 311.84 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 370.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 276.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 221.94 cents and EPS of 258.46 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 348.6, implying annual growth of -5.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 279.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LNK LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $3.11
Ord Minnett rates LNK as Accumulate (2) -
Dye and Durham has re-entered the bidding arena for Link Administration, bidding $1.27bn for just the corporate markets, banking and credit management businesses.
The proposal is non-binding and indicative.
Ord Minnett considers the bid to be a full bid given the independent expert's valuation of the business was at $765m to $900m and it is also higher than the broker's estimates. It is well above the implied value of Link's share price.
If accepted, the broker says the sale would remove the risk of a capital raising, and Link's management expects losses in Link fund solutions relating to Woodford, should be limited by the ability of that entity to make restitution.
The sales of Corporate markets would also limit contagion from the UK Financial Conduct Authority, says the broker.
Accumulate rating and $4.20 target price retained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $1.09
If LNK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.03, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.7, implying annual growth of 10.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $11.74
Credit Suisse rates MFG as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse marks to market asset managers for the September quarter and downgrades earnings estimates accordingly.
EPS forecast fall an average of -5% to -6% across the sector over FY23 to FY25.
The analyst considers the sector's -30% trading discount to the market to be justified given negative flows and market uncertainty.
Credit Suisse considers Magellan's fund performance in the September quarter to be underwhelming and expects further outflows (albeit they appear to be factored in to consensus estimates).
The broker sees little room to cut costs in the current environment and that little of the value tied up in financial assets is being returned to shareholders through the buyback.
Earnings forecasts fall -8% in FY23; -9% in FY24; and -9% in FY25. Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $11.40 from $12.50.
Target price is $11.40 Current Price is $11.74 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.57, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 86.00 cents and EPS of 108.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.4, implying annual growth of -46.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 97.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 95.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.9, implying annual growth of -13.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.93
Macquarie rates MVF as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie expects shifting trends to benefit IVF providers like Monash IVF, with data suggesting the median age of women giving birth has increased to 31.6 years from 29.7 years in 2000, driving higher utilisation of IVF treatment.
The broker finds Monash IVF well placed to improve market share in the medium term, while increases in genetic testing should improve success rates.
The Outperform rating and target price of $1.30 are retained.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.37
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.20 cents and EPS of 6.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.0, implying annual growth of 27.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.70 cents and EPS of 7.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of 16.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NWL NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $13.04
Credit Suisse rates NWL as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse marks to market Australian Platform earnings for the September quarter and downgrades estimates accordingly.
EPS forecasts fall an average of -1% to -2% across the sector.
Overall, however, the broker remains positive on the sector, noting strong flows.
EPS forecasts for Netwealth Group fall -1% in FY23; FY24; and FY25.
The broker notes the platform has been gaining market share and enjoying inflows in the past five years and is optimistic the its "best-in-class" product will continue to boost market penetration, despite a recent industry-wide slowing in flows.
Outperform rating and $15.50 target price retained.
Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $13.04 Difference: $2.46
If NWL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.12, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.6, implying annual growth of 29.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.3, implying annual growth of 26.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $25.51
UBS rates NWS as Buy (1) -
UBS has lowered its listing volume assumptions (and valuation) for REA Group, which comprises 71% of News Corp's market value.
However, currency movements movements and time value offset the reduction to the brokers REA Group valuation and the target price for News Corp remains at $36.50. Buy.
Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $25.51 Difference: $10.99
If NWS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.87, suggesting upside of 34.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 105.35 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 125.02 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 159.3, implying annual growth of 27.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.19
Macquarie rates PAN as Neutral (3) -
Preliminary results from Panoramic Resources' first quarter have come in within 5% of Macquarie's assumptions, with ore production 1% higher than expected and nickel production -4% lower.
The broker liked that ramp up at the Savannah project is in line, and that the company retained full year guidance.
The Neutral rating and target price of $0.18 are retained.
Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If PAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PDL PENDAL GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE
Overnight Price: $4.72
Credit Suisse rates PDL as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse marks to market asset managers for the September quarter and downgrades earnings estimates accordingly.
EPS forecast fall an average of -5% to -6% across the sector over FY23 to FY25.
The analyst considers the sector's -30% trading discount to the market to be justified given negative flows and market uncertainty.
Credit Suisse believe the Perpetual merger favours Pendal shareholders, which the broker says raises the risk of non-completion, particularly given the sell-off of Perpetual shares post the merger announcement, but expects it is more likely to go ahead than not.
Meanwhile, shareholders have applied to the Takeovers Panel to request the right to vote on the unsolicited deal.
Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $4.55 from $5.40.
Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If PDL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.69, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY22:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.8, implying annual growth of -9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.9, implying annual growth of -23.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PPT PERPETUAL LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $24.80
Credit Suisse rates PPT as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse marks to market asset managers for the September quarter and downgrades earnings estimates accordingly.
EPS forecast fall an average of -5% to -6% across the sector over FY23 to FY25.
The analyst considers the sector's -30% trading discount to the market to be justified given negative flows and market uncertainty.
Perpetual is the broker's top pick and only Outperform. Target price falls to $30.50 from $31.
Credit Suisse appreciates the company's overweight position in value and expects this should continue to attract funds for now.
The broker also likes the fully loaded cost base; under-earning private wealth business which should benefit from rising rates; and Corporate Trust; but is not so keen on the merger with Pendal Group, particularly the debt funding, although it does appreciate its strategic merits, Perpetual predicting synergies of roughly $60m.
Credit Suisse estimates the merger is -10% accretive and dilutive to Perpetual shareholders and favours Pendal shareholders, which the broker says raises the risk of non-completion, particularly given the sell-off of Perpetual shares post the merger announcement.
Meanwhile, shareholders have applied to the Takeovers Panel to request the right to vote on the unsolicited deal.
Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $24.80 Difference: $5.7
If PPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $31.50, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 196.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 212.0, implying annual growth of 18.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 195.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 216.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.2, implying annual growth of 12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 220.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PTM PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE
Overnight Price: $1.76
Credit Suisse rates PTM as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse marks to market asset managers for the September quarter and downgrades earnings estimates accordingly.
EPS forecasts fall an average of -5% to -6% across the sector over FY23 to FY25.
The analyst considers the sector's -30% trading discount to the market to be justified given negative flows and market uncertainty.
The broker expects Platinum Asset Management's flows to remain negative given a soft performance in the international fund (despite registering its first positive flows in 43 months) and estimates the manager is carrying $250m excess assets (30% of market cap), which are unlikely to be returned to shareholders in the short-term.
Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $1.70 from $1.80.
Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.73, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of -13.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of -7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $129.60
UBS rates REA as Neutral (3) -
Recent data show a slow start to spring selling for real estate, and given the pace of listing volume declines over the last month, UBS lowers its FY23 listing volume forecast for REA Group.
The market is pricing-in greater declines, but UBS sees a more moderate house price decline scenario of -13-15%, with support from the resumption of migration and low supply. Tight rental markets and strong employment are expected to lend additional support.
The Neutral rating is unchanged, while the target falls to $135.10 from $142.60.
Target price is $135.10 Current Price is $129.60 Difference: $5.5
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $131.48, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 336.3, implying annual growth of 15.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 182.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 373.4, implying annual growth of 11.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 205.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.77
UBS rates SDF as Buy (1) -
After a period of compliance restriction, UBS refreshes its research on Steadfast Group for the Insurance Brands Australia acquisition, associated equity raise and FY22 results.
The FY22 result demonstrated that organic growth picked up in the 2H, and the broker expects a long-term organic and M&A growth runway, which is not yet factored into market expectations.
The target price falls to $6.70 from $7.00, while the Buy rating is unchanged.
Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $4.77 Difference: $1.93
If SDF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.04, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 25.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of 8.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.91
Citi rates SKO as Buy (1) -
Citi anticipates Serko's Booking.com for Business partnership revenue could be tracking below forecasts for the first half given traffic to the platform. While average visits to the site are up 14% on March, the broker had expected visits to be 30% above March.
The broker does expect booking volumes to be higher than site visits given a focus on traffic conversion over new customers.
The Buy rating and target price of $5.10 are retained.
Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $2.19
If SKO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.57, suggesting upside of 91.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -17.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is -11.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
AUB | AUB Group | $20.23 | Macquarie | 24.07 | N/A | - |
DHG | Domain Holdings Australia | $3.46 | UBS | 4.00 | 4.50 | -11.11% |
JHG | Janus Henderson | $33.30 | Credit Suisse | 29.00 | 31.50 | -7.94% |
MFG | Magellan Financial | $10.78 | Credit Suisse | 11.40 | 12.50 | -8.80% |
PDL | Pendal Group | $4.76 | Credit Suisse | 4.55 | 5.40 | -15.74% |
PPT | Perpetual | $24.48 | Credit Suisse | 30.50 | 31.00 | -1.61% |
PTM | Platinum Asset Management | $1.76 | Credit Suisse | 1.70 | 1.80 | -5.56% |
REA | REA Group | $126.14 | UBS | 135.10 | 142.60 | -5.26% |
SDF | Steadfast Group | $4.86 | UBS | 6.70 | 7.00 | -4.29% |
Summaries
AKE | Allkem | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $14.04 |
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $14.04 | ||
AMP | AMP | No Rating - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.17 |
ARB | ARB Corp | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $29.86 |
AUB | AUB Group | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $19.69 |
BHP | BHP Group | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $40.50 |
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $40.50 | ||
CSL | CSL | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $290.50 |
CXO | Core Lithium | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.15 |
DHG | Domain Holdings Australia | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.57 |
GUD | G.U.D. Holdings | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $8.20 |
HUB | Hub24 | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $23.50 |
IFL | Insignia Financial | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.09 |
JHG | Janus Henderson | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $33.31 |
LNK | Link Administration | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.11 |
MFG | Magellan Financial | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $11.74 |
MVF | Monash IVF | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.93 |
NWL | Netwealth Group | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $13.04 |
NWS | News Corp | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $25.51 |
PAN | Panoramic Resources | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.19 |
PDL | Pendal Group | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.72 |
PPT | Perpetual | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $24.80 |
PTM | Platinum Asset Management | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.76 |
REA | REA Group | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $129.60 |
SDF | Steadfast Group | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $4.77 |
SKO | Serko | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.91 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 17 |
2. Accumulate | 1 |
3. Hold | 6 |
5. Sell | 1 |
Thursday 06 October 2022
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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