Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates ABC as Neutral (3) -

Adbri points to stabilising market conditions driven by residential demand. Sales volumes were higher than last year for all product categories. The company is incrementally more positive on the trading performance and maintains its FY21 outlook.

The broker cautions infrastructure market tightening remains an important factor in driving volumes and pricing power outcomes.

The Neutral rating and $3.20 target are retained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.01
If ABC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ABY as Overweight (1) -

While retaining an Overweight rating, Morgan Stanley slashes the target price to $5 from $8.75 after management guided to FY21 revenue growth of 43-47%. This implies to the broker growth turning negative in the fourth quarter as tough comparisons are cycled.

The analyst acknowledges the next 3-6 months will be challenging though notes the group is the leader in a structural-growth market. It's felt the market is pricing in no growth in FY22 and 10-20% over the medium term. 

This compares to Morgan Stanley estimating over 15% growth in the second half of FY21, -2% in 1H22 and a return to growth in 2H22 of over 33%. Industry view: In-line.  

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $1.3
If ABY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ABY as Buy (1) -

Following an expected slowdown in momentum, UBS has cut Adore Beauty Group's FY22-23 sales forecasts by -8 and -9%, and views the new FY22 hurdle ($204m sales, up 17% year-on-year) as achievable.

Despite the sales reductions, the broker has kept FY22-23 operational expenditure (opex) estimates broadly unchanged.

While the slowdown in momentum was more than UBS expected, the broker’s medium-term thesis has not changed, with the stock (currently -45% below listing) offering an attractive entry point.

UBS believes Adore has an opportunity to ride structural tailwinds, lift brand awareness and benefit from maturing customer cohorts, and is forecasting $366m sales and $32.7m earnings (EBITDA) in FY25.

Buy rating retained and target price reduces to $5.60 from $6.20.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $1.9
If ABY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMC as Buy (1) -

Underpinned by organic growth (6%), Bemis merger synergies (6%) and share buy-back accretion (4%), Amcor delivered a solid third quarter 2021 result with 9 month 2021 constant currency earnings per share (EPS) growth of 16%.

On the strength of Amcor's operating performance, the company has raised its FY21 constant currency EPS growth guidance to 14-15% (previously 10-14%) versus UBS’s 15%, and consensus 13%.

UBS expects EPS growth to moderate to around 7%, driven by organic growth of 4%, final Bemis merger synergies (3%) and buy back accretion (1%).

The broker is attracted to Amcor's leading position across key global consumer packaging markets and thinks earnings resiliency and growth outlook, combined with a solid dividend yield of around 4%, should support the stock.

As a result, UBS has lifted FY21/22 EPS forecasts by 1%/2% to reflect ongoing operating momentum.

The Buy rating is retained and the target increases to $17.40 from $16.60.

Target price is $17.40 Current Price is $15.82 Difference: $1.58
If AMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.13, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates APA as Add (1) -

APA Group has committed to a $270m, two stage, brownfields expansion of two pipelines for targeted commissioning during 2023, increasing capacity by around 25%. This is to meet the potential east coast gas supply shortfall projected by AEMO for winter 2023.

The broker highlights there are no long-term take-or-pay contracts underwriting the investment, as the group is relying on the strength of future market demand. The higher risk is expected to earn a higher return, which the broker has largely already factored in to estimates.

Add rating. The target price is decreased to $10.53 from $10.59. 

Target price is $10.53 Current Price is $10.00 Difference: $0.53
If APA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.67, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

Easing some of the concerns of recent months, the ASX’s April 2021 trading statistics suggests daily cash equity turnover is tracking broadly in-line, with the company regaining some of the market share it lost to CHI-X in recent periods.

While capital raisings are also tracking broadly in-line, UBS believes declining derivatives volumes have been a headwind for the stock for some time, especially given low interest rates and yield curve control suppressing volatility at the short-end of the curve.

Reflecting lower market velocity, the broker has made small earnings per share (EPS) downgrades to FY21 of -0.5%. But due to stronger listing revenues and higher ASX market share in equity trading, UBS has lifted outer year forecasts by 1.2% in FY22 and 1.9% in FY23.

The Neutral rating is maintained, and the target price increases to $70 from $68.

Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $71.89 Difference: minus $1.89 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $70.32, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BRG as Buy (1) -

While Breville Group’s guidance for FY21 earnings (EBIT) of $136m only implies underlying 2H21 earnings (EBIT) growth of around 3% year-on-year, UBS notes management’s clarity over plans to pull-forward cost investment into 2H21.

While Breville has benefitted from work-from-home and cook-from-home trends, the broker favours its underlying growth drivers in a 'post-covid environment: New products, geographies, and retail partners (physical and online), with upside from M&A.

These drivers underpin UBS’s forecast for 24% sales growth in FY21, before 19% in FY22 and 15% FY23.

A Buy rating and target price of $35.70 are both maintained.

Target price is $35.70 Current Price is $26.10 Difference: $9.6
If BRG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.93, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGC as No Rating (-1) -

Costa Group Holdings presented at the Macquarie Australia 2021 Conference with a focus on sustainable farming and innovation.

Macquarie notes the group's 52-week supply in vertically integrated categories and across geographies is driven by protected cropping, superior genetics, varietal mix and agronomic expertise.

Further, FY20 was a strong turnaround year for Costa led by favourable market conditions. Macquarie expects with Costa developing its international and citrus footprint, the usual 80% operating income skew to the first half will become less weighted.

 Macquarie is under research restriction.

Current Price is $4.66. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.81, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Coronado Global Resources announced a US$550m refinancing package to be used to pay down the current syndicated facility agreement (SFA). 

While giving the company liquidity runway, Macquarie notes Coronado Global requires a recovery in Australian met coal prices to avoid further funding issues.

Also, the broker notes a significant downside to earnings, with its forecasts shifting from a profit to a loss for 2021 onward in a spot price scenario.

Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $0.60 from $1.10.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.07
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 116.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSR as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett has upgraded its housing starts forecasts across Australia, the US and New Zealand to capture the better-than-expected demand as well as the stimulus directed to increase housing supply across all three countries.

Noting this to be the third consecutive upgrade made to the housing starts forecasts in seven months, Ord Minnett downgrades its recommendation on CSR to Hold from Accumulate on valuation grounds. Price target is $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $6.08 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.51, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWY as Outperform (1) -

Cleanaway Waste Management presented at the Macquarie Australia Conference and while the company did not provide specific commentary on trading conditions, Macquarie notes covid effects are evident in some niches.

Trading was in line with management’s prior expectations and Cleanaway continues to invest more in processing capacity. 

While there is lingering uncertainty on management succession, execution has continued apace. Macquarie continues to like the company's long-term thematic and evolving industry structure. 

Macquarie reinstates coverage with an Outperform rating with a target of $3.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.77 Difference: $0.23
If CWY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DHG as Hold (3) -

Domain Holdings' March-quarter update shows price increases will take effect in July, and vary by region down to the micro-market level depending on the situation. Ord Minnett notes competitive positioning, audiences, leads, inquiries, customers are some key drivers.

Also, the broker notes driving margin expansion is the company's key focus while also helping Domain to focus on other segments like property or data solution.

Trends in the fourth quarter of FY21 are ahead of the trends in last quarter of FY18 (when the operating environment was more normal) and to the broker, it looks like the market will trade deeper into the quarter than is seasonally usual.

Hold rating retained with a target of $4.80.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.70 Difference: $0.1
If DHG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ECX as Outperform (1) -

A first half result comfortably above Credit Suisse's expectations was partly attributable to better underlying margin and impairment trends. The group has a record order pipeline and the broker continues to expect new business written to pick up.

The analyst highlights end of lease (EOL) income was very strong as expected, supported by record used car prices. Positive forecast EPS revisions of 9% for FY21 stem from a stronger first half base and higher net operating income (NOI) margin assumptions.

Outperform retained. Target is raised to $2.40 from $2.05.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.21
If ECX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ECX as Outperform (1) -

Eclipx Group's first half result was ahead of Macquarie's expectations supported by fleet net operating income, end of lease income and expenses. Operating income was 47% over last year and 10.7% ahead of Macquarie estimates. 

New business writings and assets under management or financed are expected to remain constrained beyond the initial June 2021 expectations with continued supply chain disruption.

The broker notes the current order pipeline is strong. Combined with new tender wins, this is expected to drive strong asset growth once the new vehicle supply chain normalises, concludes Macquarie.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $2.49 target.

Target price is $2.49 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.3
If ECX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ECX as Overweight (1) -

First half profit (NPATA) was 43% above Morgan Stanley's estimate on materially higher end-of-lease (EOL) profits (up 107% on the pcp), despite volumes being -14% lower. It's felt the share buyback signals confidence in the underlying growth trajectory and balance sheet.

The $20m buyback came earlier than the analyst had expected. It's believed second half new business writing (NBW) could surprise to the upside, with one tailwind coming from a historically high fleet backlog and returning novated demand.

Target is raised to $2.70 from $2.60. Overweight rating. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.51
If ECX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ELD as Outperform (1) -

Elders' first-half result will be declared on May 17. Macquarie forecasts an operating income of $65m and $59m in net profit.

The company has reinforced its positive outlook for growth opportunities. Even the broker's FY21 net profit estimate is 2% above consensus and with the operating income compounded annual growth rate forecast to be 8% for the three years to FY23.

Outperform rating with a target of $13.80.

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $11.61 Difference: $2.19
If ELD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.89, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FSF as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes the net effect of an expected -5% fall in NZ milk production over the next 10 years, is a substantial increase for Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund size (6% to 17% of shares) and reduced farmer ownership.

Alternatively, the broker thinks there could be a requirement for substantial share buy-backs ($1.2bn over 10 years) with reduced financial flexibility.

While there are very divergent outcomes for Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund unitholders, UBS believes affordability of the buy-back is a key issue.

The next step is farmer consultation with shareholder vote targeted for November.

UBS retains its Neutral rating, and target of NZ$5.

Current Price is $4.24. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GUD as Outperform (1) -

GUD Holdings' third-quarter auto aftermarket organic growth was up 15% and management expects the trading conditions to remain elevated for the next 24-36 months.

The company's FY21 operating income guidance was narrowed to $98-100m from $95-100m as compared to Macquarie's estimate of $100.6m.

Outperform retained with a target of $14.15.

Target price is $14.15 Current Price is $13.27 Difference: $0.88
If GUD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.57, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates HT1 as Outperform (1) -

In a review of first quarter results, Credit Suisse estimates the Australian radio network (ARN) revenues grew broadly in-line with the market, after adjusting for growth in digital. This is estimated to be a trend which should be sustained, given recent gains in ratings share.

The broker highlights revenues returned to marginal growth at Cody Outdoor, and the second quarter is looking better. Outperform rating and $2.10 target maintained.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.37
If HT1 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Buy (1) -

In an attempt to regain market share from the specialist platforms, AMP has slashed its administration fees for super accounts. However the move does not undercut current industry pricing materially and the broker does not expect this to lead to a price war.

AMP might reduce market share losses, but not at the expense of Netwealth and Hub24, the broker suggests, as both platforms continue to invest in functionality and benefit from the uncertainty regarding the future of key platform competitors such as BT and Colonial First State.

Buy and $26.00 target retained for Hub24.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $22.73 Difference: $3.27
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.06, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IAP as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Hold with the target rising to $1.60 from $1.40.

Irongate Group's FY21 funds from operations at 9.26c were -5.3% less than FY20 and -1.6% below Ord Minnett’s 9.41c forecast. A final dividend of 4.5c was declared, translating to a full-year payout of 8.92c.

Ord Minnett considers the portfolio to be in good shape with strong revaluation uplifts in the second half.

While office market fundamentals deteriorated, the broker highlights Irongate's strong asset management capabilities which in the broker's view makes the company well placed to navigate potential headwinds. Industrial remains in demand among institutional investors.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.15
If IAP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

JB Hi-Fi presented at the Macquarie Conference and reiterated its strategy that is driven by scale, productivity, high-quality store footprint,  supplier partnerships and multi-channel capabilities.

Macquarie believes the company's lower-margin electronics sales could experience some slowdown with consumer behaviour normalising.

Neutral rating retained. Target is $50.40.

Target price is $50.40 Current Price is $46.21 Difference: $4.19
If JBH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $51.90, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MME as Add (1) -

A trading update shows Morgans strong originations growth on the pcp and accelerating momentum on the third quarter monthly average.

Management also guided to a gross loan book at FY21-end of above $300m, an around 13% increase on prior guidance. The analyst makes minor changes to EPS forecasts. The Add rating and $2.04 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $2.04 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.6
If MME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Sell (5) -

Macquarie Group released FY21 financials today and it appears, at first sight, the numbers were slightly better than market consenses expected, but then Citi, upon initial analysis, says the upside surprise is related to less impairments, in-line with elders in the banking industry.

What stands out to the broker is the fact Macquarie has not provided any guidance for FY22, considered "odd" by Citi. The broker believes with the two largest divisions guided to have a negative growth year ahead, the rest of the group won't be able to compensate.

The result is that Citi believes market estimates are poised for downgrades in the days ahead. Sell. Price target $125.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $159.00 Difference: minus $34 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $152.38, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

National Bank's result slightly beat the broker and sizeably beat consensus. The bank's revenue trajectory outpaced peers, the broker notes, due to a shift in momentum in housing and business lending.

The weak market response was due to an update on asset quality. While overall improvement was seen, leading to lowered provisions against bad debts and increased capital, growing "tail risk" is evident in increasing loans in arrears.

Given the risk suggests limited upside, the broker retains Neutral and a $26.25 target.

Target price is $26.25 Current Price is $26.56 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.49, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NAB as Outperform (1) -

Following the first half result, Credit Suisse upgrades earnings by 1-4% across FY22 and FY23, due to a higher net interest margin (NIM) and lower bad debts. The target price increases to $27.50 from $27 and the Outperform rating is maintained.

The broker makes large upgrades to FY21 estimates due to lower bad debts on the back of the impairment benefit seen in the first half. Buyback assumptions have also increased to $5bn from $3bn, split evenly across FY22 and FY23.

The analyst likes the momentum in mortgages, higher fee income and the strong CET1 position. It's considered the bank offers improved balance sheet momentum with a reasonable cost target.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $26.56 Difference: $0.94
If NAB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.49, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

National Australia Bank's first half result ticked many boxes, highlights Macquarie, but fell short of providing a catalyst for further sector re-rating (not unlike its peers).

Excluding income from volatile markets, the bank's pre-provision earnings were up almost $90m which was better than Westpac Bank ((WBC)) and worse than ANZ Bank ((ANZ)).

A circa 20% rise in the 90-day past-due loans suggests the upside from lower impairments may not be as material as some expect, adds Macquarie.

Neutral rating with the target rising to $28 from $26.75.  

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $26.56 Difference: $1.44
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.49, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Equal-weight (3) -

After first half results, Morgan Stanley believes conservative settings provide upside potential for EPS, return on equity (ROE) and dividends. Currently, it's assessed a return of capital is not urgent as management noted "strength and stability continue to be a priority".

The broker is not convinced that growth in the around $300bn mortgage portfolio will match system growth in the second half, given the bank's ongoing market share loss in investor lending.

The price target is lifted to $27.20 from $26.30. The Equal-weight rating is maintained as better business momentum, pre-provision profit upgrades and capital management are required to make the analyst more positive. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $27.20 Current Price is $26.56 Difference: $0.64
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.49, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Hold (3) -

While first half results were -10% less than Morgans estimates, they were approximately 6% above consensus expectations. The miss versus the analyst's numbers was due to a lower credit impairment benefit and softer Markets & Treasury income.

The broker believes the outlook for ordinary dividends is increasingly robust due to improving asset quality and an an excess CET1 capital position. Additionally, credit loss provisioning is considered to look conservative.

A fully franked interim dividend of 60 cents was declared. Morgans sees increasing potential for capital management over the forecast period. The Add rating and $29 target are retained.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $26.56 Difference: $2.44
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.49, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

National Australia Bank's first-half cash net profit was $3.34m, -5.3% below Ord Minnett’s forecast. A fully franked interim dividend of 60c per share was declared, in line with the broker's estimate.

Ord Minnett is disappointed with the result with revenue excluding the markets division flat due to a weaker net interest margin. On the bright side, the broker sees momentum improving with a return to banking income growth likely from the second half onwards.

The broker continues to expect the bank's revenue growth trends to be a little better than peers. Even so, looking at the limited potential upside Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Accumulate. The target drops to $27.50 from $28.1.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $26.56 Difference: $0.94
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.49, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Buy (1) -

In an attempt to regain market share from the specialist platforms, AMP ((AMP)) has slashed its administration fees for super accounts. However the move does not undercut current industry pricing materially and the broker does not expect this to lead to a price war.

AMP might reduce market share losses, but not at the expense of Netwealth and Hub24, the broker suggests, as both platforms continue to invest in functionality and benefit from the uncertainty regarding the future of key platform competitors such as BT and Colonial First State.

Buy and $16.10 target retained for Netwealth.

Target price is $16.10 Current Price is $13.45 Difference: $2.65
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.14, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORI as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has updated its model for Orica before the company's first-half FY21 result that is due on May 13.

The broker expects group earnings before tax to be $143m for the first half and $438m for FY21.

Hold rating with the target rising to $14 from $13.75.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $13.83 Difference: $0.17
If ORI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.94, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates QBE as Add (1) -

After an FY21 performance update, Morgans lifts FY21 and FY22 EPS estimates by 17% and 4%, and raises the target price to $11.83 from $10.78. The Add rating is maintained.

The broker highlights first quarter combined operating ratio (COR) was considered in-line with market expectations and gross written premiums (GWP) growth on the pcp was 13%. The latter is considered to show recent rate increases are flowing through to GWP.

The COR result was a better outcome than the analyst expected given numerous known weather events in the quarter. A decision to adopt a slightly shorter asset duration versus the length of the group's liabilities has seen an over $70m mark-to-market (MTM) gain.

Target price is $11.83 Current Price is $10.78 Difference: $1.05
If QBE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.82, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SCG as Equal-weight (3) -

Scentre Group has reiterated DPS guidance of "at least 14c" in a first quarter update. Morgan Stanley assesses metrics look better than key peer Vicinity Centres ((VCX)) though operational data are patchy in parts.

The broker highlights rent collection was $802m for the four months to April, which translates to around 100% of gross billings though the company would still be collecting arrears from the December 2020 half. Additionally, rent relief is still being provided to some tenants.

The analyst concludes it may be too early to be bullish on the group simply based on the trading update.The Equal-weight rating and $2.98 target are retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $2.98 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.29
If SCG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.84, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SCG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett thinks on balance, Scentre Group delivered a "solid" first-quarter update. The broker found making comparisons difficult this time since disclosure was relatively limited.

Even so, the broker notes collections and visitations lifted over last year levels and were relatively stable over the first four months of 2021. On the flip side, leasing spreads remain materially negative.

The 2021 dividend guidance remains at 14c with no earnings guidance. 

Ord Minnett maintains its Hold recommendation with a target price of $3.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.31
If SCG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.84, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SCG as Sell (5) -

Given the difficult operating environment UBS regards Scentre Group’s first quarter operating metrics as credible, with occupancy  unchanged at 98.5%.

Solid leasing progress during the quarter saw 588 deals, including 236 new merchants.

While cash collection appears to be running in line with pre covid levels at around $200m per month, Scentre is still collecting a substantial amount of rent recognised in 2020 earnings, which UBS believes likely overstates this by 15% versus earnings.

The broker believes FY21 dividend per share (DPS) guidance of "at least 14c" (in line with UBS) allows Scentre to retain cash flows ($0.2b) to fund strategic initiatives/developments and debt reduction (current net debt $13bn).

From an equity investor perspective, UBS views a loan to value (LVR) of 41% as an important adjustment to Scentre’s capital management framework as access to capital for shopping centre REITs is likely less certain going forward.

Sell rating and target price of $2.65 are both retained.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If SCG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.84, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGR as Neutral (3) -

Star Entertainment's May trading update was a tale of two states. Pokie revenues in Sydney continue to recover but table revenues remain weak, the broker notes. In Queensland, tables have recovered but pokies remain weak.

On that basis the broker retains Neutral, seeing the stock as fairly valued as long as there are no structural changes to the Australian casino industry, which presumably is a reference to the Barangaroo ((CWN)) fallout. Target falls to $4.00 from $4.10.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.1
If SGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SGR as Neutral (3) -

In a trading update, management indicated that the second half margin on domestic revenue (ex-Jobkeeper) is heading toward 24%. Credit Suisse considers domestic revenue momentum is strong for January 1-May 3, when compared to the pre-covid second half of FY19.

Given ever-increasing regulation around cross-border gaming, the broker models a conservative 40% recovery of VIP revenues by FY25. Only minor changes to earnings by the analyst and the Neutral rating and $4 target are maintained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.1
If SGR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGR as Outperform (1) -

According to Star Entertainment Group's update at the Macquarie Conference, in the first four months of the second half, domestic gaming was trading at 90% of pre-covid levels.

Macquarie sees upside to FY22 consensus considering an ongoing domestic recovery, cost-out benefits, and Sydney domestic tax changes.

Star Entertainment continues to be the broker's preferred casino pick supported by earnings upside with easing social distancing, uptick in performance and improving cash generation.

Outperform rating remains with the target price increasing to $4.65 from $4.50.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.75
If SGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGR as Accumulate (2) -

Star Entertainment Group's update for January 1 to May 3 gives an indication of the strength of domestic gaming regardless of border conditions, suggests Ord Minnett.

The broker has increased its FY21 operating earnings forecast by 7.3% led by slightly higher revenues and a refreshed table profile in the private gaming sovereign room.

In Ord Minnett's view, Star Entertainment has an excellent runway for earnings growth post covid. Accumulate with the target rising to $4.50 from $4.10.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.6
If SGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGR as Buy (1) -

Star Entertainment Group’s trading update reveals underlying improvement in trends from the result in mid-February where domestic revenue was tracking down -20%. The update implies the run-rate of growth since then has only been down about 5-10% on pre-covid levels.

While group domestic revenue is down -12%, broadly in line with UBS forecast of -11%, Gold Coast is outperforming all other markets.

UBS estimates Queensland domestic revenue is tracking up 5-10% on pre-covid levels and Sydney is tracking down -24%.

Capex guidance, and JV contributions guidance both remain unchanged.

Buy rating target of $4.30 retained.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.4
If SGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SIQ as Neutral (3) -

Smartgroup Corp's April trading update shows new health-sector clients were onboarded in the month with circa 8,500 packages along with other salary package growth at circa 3,500. Novated and fleet vehicles under management were stable.

The company is targeting an additional operating income of $15-20m in 2024, with two-thirds from a revenue uplift and the rest from efficiencies.

Neutral rating remains and the price target rises to $7.20 from $7.16.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.95 Difference: $0.25
If SIQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.41, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SIQ as Equal-weight (3) -

After an update for the first four months the company appears on track to hit Morgan Stanley's FY21 profit estimates. It's estimated supply constraints impacting novated volumes impacted should lessen by the second half.

Equal-weight rating. Target is $7. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.95 Difference: $0.05
If SIQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.41, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SIQ as Buy (1) -

Smartgroup Corp’s update indicates the salary packaging business did well so far in 2021 with one new health client adding 8.5k packages. For the novated business, volumes were largely flat versus last year.

In the medium term, the company is targeting an incremental $15-20m in operating income by 2024. This is broadly consistent with Ord Minnett's forecast yet does provide some clarity to the broker on Smartgroup's strategy to improve conversion and margins.

The broker thinks while the strength in recent new car sales will continue to be challenging for novated lease companies, Smartgroup Corp looks well poised to improve its sales conversion once supply catches up.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $7.70 from $7.80.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $6.95 Difference: $0.75
If SIQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.41, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SKC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes SkyCity Entertainment's domestic revenues could get above pre-covid levels in FY22 looking at the recent trading trends.

Also, SkyCity Adelaide is seeing strong volumes supported by recent expansion and regulatory reforms and operating income may exceed $60m in FY23.

With valuation continuing to look compelling, Macquarie retains its Outperform rating with the price target rising to NZ$3.75 from NZ$3.55.

Current Price is $3.23. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SKC as Buy (1) -

UBS sees further upside for SkyCity Entertainment from recent share price recovery as profitability moves consistently towards being materially above pre covid levels by FY23/FY24.

Mainly reflecting a stronger contribution from Adelaide, the broker has lifted earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by 2%, 2%, and 3% respectively for the three years ahead.

Driven by domestic recovery as covid restrictions end, Adelaide casino expansion, and restarting of International VIP activities once A&NZ borders reopen, UBS’s revised forecasts see earnings (EBITDA) lift by 51% over the next two years.

UBS expects after-tax return on investment (ROI) to shift back toward a pre covid level of 11% due to a material reduction in capital expenditure from FY22.

The broker also expects dividend per share (DPS) of 11cps in FY22 as SkyCity Entertainment moves back to around 80% payout with debt/EBITDA back at target levels (2.5x) in FY22.

Buy rating is retained, and price target increases to NZ$3.80 from NZ$3.35.

Current Price is $3.23. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SRL as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Sunrise Energy Metals has progressed its nickel-cobalt laterite project through the normal study phases and is now at a development-ready status. The project execution plan outlines the key metrics like the cost, expected to be circa US$2bn to bring into production.

Securing a development partner that can aid in the funding of the US$2bn project remains a key hurdle, notes the broker, and a potential positive catalyst. Other catalysts include the Phoenix platinum zone and the water business demerger.

Macquarie resumes coverage with an Outperform rating and a target of $3.20.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.55 Difference: $0.65
If SRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TPG as Add (1) -

Management has stated year-to-date results are tracking well against expectations. No forecast was proffered though Morgans assumes the company is broadly comfortable with FY21 earnings (EBITDA) consensus forecasts.

The broker sees short-term price weakness as a buying opportunity and keeps the Add rating. The target price falls to $7.17 from $8.11, after adjustments to capex forecasts.

Target price is $7.17 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $1.93
If TPG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.86, suggesting upside of 44.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VUK as Neutral (3) -

The interim performance proved much better than market consensus with Citi analysts pointing out the upside surprise can be completely explained by lower impairments, as has been the case elsewhere in the banking industry.

Pre-provision profit is actually a -5% miss vis a vis consensus, according to Citi.

And while guidance is for improvement for the Net Interest Margin (NIM), the analysts think investors will be paying attention to the prospective "heavy" increase in operational costs.

Citi reiterates its Neutral rating with a GBP1.90 price target on an overall "mixed" set of financial results, and an equally "mixed" outlook.

Current Price is $3.55. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources