Australian Broker Call
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January 08, 2019
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
GXY - | GALAXY RESOURCES | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
HIG - | HIGHLANDS PACIFIC | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
NWL - | NETWEALTH GROUP | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Credit Suisse |
WPL - | WOODSIDE PETROLEUM | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Macquarie |
Overnight Price: $0.17
Macquarie rates AJM as Underperform (5) -
Macquarie has taken a positive view following the announcement made by Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)), indicating strong demand from potential customers for hard rock lithium miners.
The exception is Altura Mining. Macquarie has pulled back the price target to 16c from 20c prior while retaining its Underperform rating.
Earnings estimates have suffered from reduced projections for near-term cash flow generation. Earlier projections for profitability have been pushed out until FY21.
Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If AJM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.57
Credit Suisse rates AST as Neutral (3) -
The Australian Energy Regulator released its final reports reviewing the rate of return, and its approach to regulatory tax allowances on 17 December last year. Credit Suisse analysts are playing catchup with a general update for the sector.
For AusNet Services, estimates have been slightly reduced (but not DPS), with no changes made to the Neutral rating and $1.60 price target.
Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.57 Difference: $0.03
If AST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.69, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.72 cents and EPS of 7.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of -13.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.11 cents and EPS of 7.53 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $61.93
Credit Suisse rates ASX as Underperform (5) -
While acknowledging overall activity levels were (slightly) higher than expected throughout the final three months of 2018, the analysts nevertheless stick with their Underperform rating as EPS growth was strong last year, and is now expected to slow.
Hence, despite the upgrade to forecasts, Credit Suisse finds the valuation is too "full". Target price/valuation remains unchanged at $55.
Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $61.93 Difference: minus $6.93 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $56.91, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 222.00 cents and EPS of 247.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 248.4, implying annual growth of 3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 221.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 231.00 cents and EPS of 257.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 260.0, implying annual growth of 4.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 230.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie expects China's move to Level-2 stimulus to have a positive impact on market sentiment for the diversified majors. Using the input from current spot prices, the broker retains a positive outlook for BHP Group, Rio Tinto ((RIO)) and South32 ((S32)) with BHP most preferred, ahead of the other two.
Outperform maintained. Target is steady at $40.
Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $34.52 Difference: $5.48
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $36.88, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 312.21 cents and EPS of 251.11 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 265.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 248.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 162.13 cents and EPS of 230.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 252.9, implying annual growth of -4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 172.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.10
Ord Minnett rates BLD as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett notes Boral shares have significantly underperformed in 2018. The broker agrees with the market's assessment that guidance for the year looks optimistic.
Plus the company may need to raise equity so it can afford to buy out its partner in the USG Boral Plasterboard JV. The analysts suggest maybe the latter can be financed through debt?
Accumulate rating maintained alongside a target of $7.40. Broadly taken, the broker maintains growth prospects for the company remain "robust".
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $5.10 Difference: $2.3
If BLD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting upside of 39.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.7, implying annual growth of 16.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CGF CHALLENGER LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $9.50
Credit Suisse rates CGF as Neutral (3) -
Marking to market, Credit Suisse analysts have reduced estimates for asset managers and operators of financial platforms. More so for the former (-6% on average versus -1% on average).
The analysts highlight while share prices have de-rated noticeably, many asset managers are also experiencing fund outflows, and this can potentially still accelerate on continued risk off sentiment.
For Challenger, only small reductions have ensued, with the analysts also questioning the sustainability of the COE margin. Neutral rating retained. Price target $12.
Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $9.50 Difference: $2.5
If CGF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.48, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.9, implying annual growth of 18.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.8, implying annual growth of 7.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.86
Credit Suisse rates GWA as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse is catching up on the announcement GWA Group intends to fully acquire NZ-listed Methven. The analysts label the price to be paid "okay", but they don't see much potential in terms of diversification and/or transformation under new ownership.
There are synergies, and these are deemed sufficient to justify the price for the acquisition. The analysts suggest these benefits risk being offset by potentially cannibalising the group's existing sales.
Outperform rating retained with the analysts believing GWA will continue increasing market share "through the cycle". An accelerating decline in the Australian residential market is seen as a potential downside risk. Target unchanged at $3.75.
Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.89
If GWA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.47, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 20.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of 8.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 18.20 cents and EPS of 22.75 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GXY GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $2.29
Macquarie rates GXY as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Macquarie has taken a positive view following the announcement made by Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)), indicating strong demand from potential customers for hard rock lithium miners.
Pilbara Minerals remains the broker's top pick in the sector, with ongoing cautious view for Altura Mining. Galaxy Resources' rating is hereby upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
Concerning the latter, Macquarie has pushed back the development assumption for Sal de Vida by circa 6 months with first production now expected in late-2022. Target price declines to $2.70 from $3.
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: $0.41
If GXY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.37, suggesting upside of 47.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.35 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.33 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of 96.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.11
Morgans rates HIG as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -
Morgans advises shareholders to take no action with Cobalt 27 Corp having agreed to acquire all outstanding shares at 10.5c per unit.
The analysts point out, part of the process will be a shareholders’ meeting to approve the scheme of arrangement, which will require the approval of 75% of non-conflicted shareholders.
Downgrade to Hold from Add. Target price falls to 11c from 33c
Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0
If HIG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.50 cents. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.63
Citi rates HLS as Neutral (3) -
The board has now officially rejected the proposal from suitor Jangho. Citi analysts reiterate that in their opinion the company formerly known as Primary Health Care is under pressure due to slower macro environment and additional operating costs.
Citi earlier expressed the view that FIRB will likely hold the key to a successful acquisition of the company. The arrival of another suitor cannot be excluded, say the analysts. Neutral rating retained. Target $2.90.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.63 Difference: $0.27
If HLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 8.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HUB HUB24 LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $12.45
Credit Suisse rates HUB as Neutral (3) -
Marking to market, Credit Suisse analysts have reduced estimates for asset managers and operators of financial platforms. More so for the former (-6% on average versus -1% on average).
The analysts highlight while share prices have de-rated noticeably, many asset managers are also experiencing fund outflows, and this can potentially still accelerate on continued risk off sentiment.
Hub24's forecasts have only been reduced in minor fashion. Margin assumptions have been lowered. Stock seen as fairly priced, hence Neutral rating retained. Price target $13.20 (unchanged).
Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $12.45 Difference: $0.75
If HUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.84, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 35.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 75.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.1, implying annual growth of 69.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IFL IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $5.37
Credit Suisse rates IFL as Neutral (3) -
Marking to market, Credit Suisse analysts have reduced estimates for asset managers and operators of financial platforms. More so for the former (-6% on average versus -1% on average).
The analysts highlight while share prices have de-rated noticeably, many asset managers are also experiencing fund outflows, and this can potentially still accelerate on continued risk off sentiment.
With estimates already reduced in December, today's update offers a mix in adjustments for the years ahead. Neutral rating retained. Price target $4.60 (unchanged).
Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.75, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.7, implying annual growth of 118.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 71.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.4, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $24.49
Credit Suisse rates MFG as Outperform (1) -
Marking to market, Credit Suisse analysts have reduced estimates for asset managers and operators of financial platforms. More so for the former (-6% on average versus -1% on average).
The analysts highlight while share prices have de-rated noticeably, many asset managers are also experiencing fund outflows, and this can potentially still accelerate on continued risk off sentiment.
Earnings estimates have been culled including for lower performance fees. Target price reduces to $29 from $30. Outperform rating retained.
Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $24.49 Difference: $4.51
If MFG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.51, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 153.00 cents and EPS of 172.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.8, implying annual growth of 40.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 153.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 180.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.3, implying annual growth of 5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $24.54
Citi rates NAB as Buy (1) -
After carefully putting pros and cons against each other, Citi's banking sector analysts have come to the conclusion that banking shares in Australia have been oversold, providing investors with an opportunity in 2019.
The analysts' preferred strategy is through favouritism towards "restructuring" and "commercial banking", which leads to Citi putting National Australia Bank forward as the sector favourite, ahead of (in order of preference) ANZ Bank ((ANZ)), Westpac ((WBC)) and CommBank ((CBA)).
Noteworthy: Citi thinks investors should not fear the potential for a Labor government later this year.
Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $24.54 Difference: $6.46
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.85, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 222.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.5, implying annual growth of 6.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 192.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 232.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.0, implying annual growth of 3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 189.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NWL NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $7.43
Credit Suisse rates NWL as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -
Marking to market, Credit Suisse analysts have reduced estimates for asset managers and operators of financial platforms. More so for the former (-6% on average versus -1% on average).
The analysts highlight while share prices have de-rated noticeably, many asset managers are also experiencing fund outflows, and this can potentially still accelerate on continued risk off sentiment.
As net flows have improved on the back of new partnerships, post the present year earnings estimates have slightly increased. Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform. Target price remains $7.75.
Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $0.32
If NWL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.90, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 77.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 28.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.02
Macquarie rates OZL as Outperform (1) -
Base metals analysts at Macquarie expect China's move to Level-2 stimulus to have a positive impact on sentiment for Australian base metal miners. It is the analysts' view pure play copper stocks look "cheap" using spot prices while nickel stocks are factoring in a recovery in nickel prices.
In a general sense, Macquarie sees downside risks from weaker base metals prices for earnings estimates. The broker does see "significant value" among copper miners in OZ Minerals, Sandfire Resources ((SFR)), as well as in Metals X ((MLX)). A positive view for Panoramic Resources ((PAN)) and Western Areas ((WSA)) is based upon a positive outlook for nickel.
OZ Minerals is the favourite for copper exposure. Outperform and $11.90 price target retained.
Target price is $11.90 Current Price is $9.02 Difference: $2.88
If OZL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.46, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 81.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.7, implying annual growth of -3.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 63.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.2, implying annual growth of -24.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PDL PENDAL GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $7.78
Credit Suisse rates PDL as Underperform (5) -
Marking to market, Credit Suisse analysts have reduced estimates for asset managers and operators of financial platforms. More so for the former (-6% on average versus -1% on average).
The analysts highlight while share prices have de-rated noticeably, many asset managers are also experiencing fund outflows, and this can potentially still accelerate on continued risk off sentiment.
With fees from JO Hambro virtually having disappeared, earnings estimates have been lowered by -6-8%. Target price falls to $7.10 from $7.40. Underperform rating retained.
Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: minus $0.68 (current price is over target).
If PDL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.21, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.7, implying annual growth of -11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.0, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PPT PERPETUAL LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $33.04
Credit Suisse rates PPT as Neutral (3) -
Marking to market, Credit Suisse analysts have reduced estimates for asset managers and operators of financial platforms. More so for the former (-6% on average versus -1% on average).
The analysts highlight while share prices have de-rated noticeably, many asset managers are also experiencing fund outflows, and this can potentially still accelerate on continued risk off sentiment.
Multiple projections for Perpetual's operations have been adjusted negatively, with noticeable consequences for future dividends. Target price falls to $33 from $41. Neutral rating retained.
Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $33.04 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $39.40, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 255.00 cents and EPS of 280.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 287.6, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 260.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 250.00 cents and EPS of 279.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 297.0, implying annual growth of 3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 262.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PTM PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $4.87
Credit Suisse rates PTM as Underperform (5) -
Marking to market, Credit Suisse analysts have reduced estimates for asset managers and operators of financial platforms. More so for the former (-6% on average versus -1% on average).
The analysts highlight while share prices have de-rated noticeably, many asset managers are also experiencing fund outflows, and this can potentially still accelerate on continued risk off sentiment.
Reductions to estimates are quite pronounced (this year's reduction is -13%), pulling back the price target to $4.70 from $5. Underperform rating retained.
Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.14, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of -11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of 7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $73.92
Morgans rates REA as Add (1) -
The analysts have reduced forecasts on the back of more downside to come from the national apartment construction cycle, which pushes down the price target to $89.55 from $92.02.
This, however, doesn't change the fact they continue to believe REA Group shares are too cheap. Hence why the Add rating has been retained.
Taking a broader view, Morgans highlights this company should be able to deliver several more years of double-digit earnings growth on top of high levels of free cash generation, enabling strong growth in dividends.
Target price is $89.55 Current Price is $73.92 Difference: $15.63
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $88.15, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 243.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 252.1, implying annual growth of 31.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 133.00 cents and EPS of 279.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 293.2, implying annual growth of 16.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SKI SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $2.31
Credit Suisse rates SKI as Underperform (5) -
The Australian Energy Regulator released its final reports reviewing the rate of return, and its approach to regulatory tax allowances on 17 December last year. Credit Suisse analysts are playing catchup with a general update for the sector.
Estimates for Spark Infra have reduced, also taking into account further capex reductions. Target price decreases to $2.15 from $2.25. Underperform rating retained.
Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If SKI meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.40, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 6.21 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.6, implying annual growth of 82.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.48 cents and EPS of 6.31 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.1, implying annual growth of -15.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
VHT VOLPARA HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices
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Overnight Price: $1.25
Morgans rates VHT as Add (1) -
Stockbroker Morgans welcomes the deal (MOU) with US-based ScreenPoint Medical. It is the broker's assessment this deal should improve Volpara's average revenue per user (ARPU).
Morgans is advising investors to look out for an expected strong third cashflow report due late January plus amendments from the FDA due shortly which, in its view, will modernise the regulation around breast density reporting to patients. Both are seen as positive catalysts for the share price.
Add rating retained, as well as the $1.61 price target. Morgans considers Volpara the best pick among emerging healthcare stocks in Australia.
Target price is $1.61 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.36
If VHT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.53 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.22 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $32.50
Macquarie rates WPL as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -
Macquarie sees oil prices strengthening in the first half of calendar 2019. On this basis, the rating for Woodside Petroleum has been lifted to Neutral from Underperform.
Sector preference remains (in order) Oil Search ((OSH)), then Santos ((STO)), with Woodside last among large caps "due to certainty and timing around catalysts for the first two".
Macquarie believes Woodside is facing a challenging year ahead, though it is seen as a candidate to announce a buyback or special dividend. Target price falls to $33.30 from $34.70.
Target price is $33.30 Current Price is $32.50 Difference: $0.8
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.36, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 130.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 209.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 177.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 138.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 275.1, implying annual growth of 31.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 227.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
AJM | ALTURA MINING | Macquarie | 0.16 | 0.20 | -20.00% |
GXY | GALAXY RESOURCES | Macquarie | 2.70 | 3.00 | -10.00% |
HIG | HIGHLANDS PACIFIC | Morgans | 0.11 | 0.33 | -66.67% |
KAR | KAROON GAS | Macquarie | 1.35 | 1.40 | -3.57% |
MFG | MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP | Credit Suisse | 29.00 | 30.00 | -3.33% |
OSH | OIL SEARCH | Macquarie | 9.50 | 9.60 | -1.04% |
PDL | PENDAL GROUP | Credit Suisse | 7.10 | 7.40 | -4.05% |
PPT | PERPETUAL | Credit Suisse | 33.00 | 41.00 | -19.51% |
PTM | PLATINUM | Credit Suisse | 4.70 | 5.00 | -6.00% |
REA | REA GROUP | Morgans | 89.55 | 92.02 | -2.68% |
SKI | SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE | Credit Suisse | 2.15 | 2.25 | -4.44% |
SXY | SENEX ENERGY | Macquarie | 0.50 | 0.55 | -9.09% |
WPL | WOODSIDE PETROLEUM | Macquarie | 33.30 | 34.70 | -4.03% |
Summaries
AJM | ALTURA MINING | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.17 |
AST | AUSNET SERVICES | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.57 |
ASX | ASX | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $61.93 |
BHP | BHP | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $34.52 |
BLD | BORAL | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.10 |
CGF | CHALLENGER | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $9.50 |
GWA | GWA GROUP | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.86 |
GXY | GALAXY RESOURCES | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.29 |
HIG | HIGHLANDS PACIFIC | Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.11 |
HLS | HEALIUS | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.63 |
HUB | HUB24 | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $12.45 |
IFL | IOOF HOLDINGS | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.37 |
MFG | MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $24.49 |
NAB | NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $24.54 |
NWL | NETWEALTH GROUP | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $7.43 |
OZL | OZ MINERALS | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $9.02 |
PDL | PENDAL GROUP | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $7.78 |
PPT | PERPETUAL | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $33.04 |
PTM | PLATINUM | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.87 |
REA | REA GROUP | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $73.92 |
SKI | SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.31 |
VHT | VOLPARA HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.25 |
WPL | WOODSIDE PETROLEUM | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $32.50 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 8 |
2. Accumulate | 1 |
3. Hold | 9 |
5. Sell | 5 |
Tuesday 08 January 2019
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