Australian Broker Call

Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -

a2 Milk Co reported an upbeat 1H25 result, coming in above the consensus forecast for net profit after tax by 10%, Citi observes, and 8% above the broker's estimate.

Revenue advanced 10% over the period, with robust cash conversion and good management in lowering US losses, leading the analyst to surmise the company reported a good "quality" beat.

Management lifted guidance to low-mid double-digit growth and slightly higher margins. The company continues to grow market share in China label products.

a2 Milk Co announced its first-ever dividend of 8.5c per share, compared to consensus at 7.2c per share, which may broaden the stock's appeal to different investors, Citi explains.

Citi reiterates Buy rating. Target $7.33.

Target price is $7.33 Current Price is $5.95 Difference: $1.38
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.24, suggesting downside of -12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ABY as Neutral (3) -

Adore Beauty's first half results were pre-reported and UBS notes there was no trading update in the release.

The broker observes a material slowdown in trading occurred over September-December and awaits comments on trading in January and February. Neutral rating and $1.30 target.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.465
If ABY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 58.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AD8 as Neutral (3) -

In an initial assessment, UBS notes a strengthening of audio/video ecosystems was the main positive in the first half results from Audinate Group.

Operating expenditure was the main surprise, as it is now missing from guidance and could have a big impact on earnings in FY25.

The broker expects a positive reaction to the numbers overall and retains a Neutral rating with a $10.60 target.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $7.58 Difference: $3.02
If AD8 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AIA as Sell (5) -

UBS highlights strong Australian fares momentum in late-2024 has slowed though notes New Zealand International fares are on the improve.

The target for Auckland International Airport is NZ$7.95. Neutral.

Current Price is $7.64. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

Citi weighs up the positive and more negative aspects of AMP's 2024 result and the outlook for 2025.

On balance, the analyst points to more concerns around a decline in Platforms revenue margins, increased debt levels, a fall in surplus capital, and a lower-than-expected 2024 dividend outweighing better cost management, superannuation outflows, and better North flows.

Post the stock's sell-off after the result, Citi retains a Neutral rating. Target lowered to $1.60 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.11
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

After reviewing AMP's FY24 results, Macquarie sees ongoing headwinds for assets under management (AUM)-based revenue margins, particularly with the Advice business now operating at arm’s length.

On a positive note, the broker highlights management’s decision to maintain its controllable costs target at $600m.

A final dividend of 1 cent (20% franked) fell short of the consensus forecast, with management now targeting a 2c dividend per half in FY25.

The target falls to $1.64 from $1.70, with a Neutral rating.

Target price is $1.64 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.15
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the pullback in AMP is "overdone" in the wake of the 2024 results and, as it offers more than 30% EPS growth in 2025, the stock presents a compelling case.

The 2025 dividend outlook was disappointing yet the broker believes the company can move to a mid-50% payout by 2026.

Platforms are expected to improve to $1.2bn in 2025, and net inflows were well ahead of expectations in the December quarter. The broker also flags the emerging longevity products, "a powerful growth thematic".

Target is reduced to $1.76 from $1.90 and an Overweight rating is maintained. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.27
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett focuses on AMP missing the forecast interim dividend at 2H24 results by a large degree, with 2024 dividend guidance standing at around one-third of the previous consensus estimate.

While 2024 earnings met the broker's expectations, the guidance implies consensus expectations were too high. Due to the restructuring of how earnings are reported, the analyst believes the numbers are full of "noise."

Ord Minnett lowers earnings estimates by less than -1% for 2025 to 2027. With court cases still impacting the company, management has stopped any capital management initiatives in the short term. AMP has excess capital estimated at $300m, the analyst notes.

AMP remains Hold rated with a $1.70 target price.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.21
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMP as Sell (5) -

UBS highlights AMP's overall net outflows continue to moderate in 2H24 but the progress disappointed against a backdrop of stronger peer outcomes and a beat in the bank benefiting from provision releases (lower quality).  The bigger disappointment was limited prospects for further near-term capital management given clarity that surplus sits at $139m with a weaker FY25 dividend outlook.

The broker made modest EPS revisions, lowering the FY25 forecast by -0.1% and raising FY26 by 1.5% to reflect lower net outflows, partly offset by lower platform fees and FY25 controllable costs.

Target price rises to $1.35 from $1.25. Sell maintained.

(guidance 43bps vs prior UBSe 45.5bps); (ii) FY25 controllable costs $610m (guidance
$600m, prior UBSe $630m).

While overall Wealth net outflows continue to moderate, progress here
disappointed against a backdrop of stronger peer outcomes and a beat in the Bank
benefiting from provision releases (lower quality

On first inspection, UBS notes AMP reported 2H24 underlying net profit after tax above consensus by 1% and ahead of UBS' estimate by 5%.

Notably,.

Platform and superannuation and investment assets under management were also 1% better than forecast.

UBS notes 2025 guidance is mixed, with better cost management. Sell rated with a $1.25 target price.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AQZ as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Alliance Aviation Services announced lower-than-expected 1H25 results, with profit before tax down -9% at $41.3m, but management retained FY25 consensus at $92.9m, the broker highlights.

Aviation services is expected to have a stronger 2H25.

Net debt came in above estimate by $21m due to a delay in the divestment of the Brisbane hangar for $6m and higher working capital.

The broker believes Alliance Aviation's asset backing is robust and that it is in a good position to generate the expected earnings growth.

No change to Buy rating. Target slips to $3.70 from $4.10.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $1.16
If AQZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASK as Buy (1) -

Citi likes the positive "momentum" in Abacus Storage King's 1H25 occupancy rate at 91% and growth in rental rate of 4.4%, with the REIT generating robust funds from operations growth of 15.1%, the broker explains.

Management confirmed FY25 distribution guidance of 6.2c and a payout ratio of 90%-100%, which meets consensus and the analyst's forecast.

Over the period, $60m was invested in four operating stores and three development sites.

Gearing rose to 29%, alongside a change in the target range from 25%-35% to 25%-40%. Cost of debt remains low at 4%, Citi notes, relative to the sector, with around $600m in available capacity to fund future growth.

Target is $1.40, and a Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.195
If ASK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ASK as Buy (1) -

Abacus Storage King's first-half results highlight a strong pipeline of acquisitions and developments, with distribution guidance unchanged at 3.3c per unit, according to Shaw and Partners.

Revenue per available metre (RevPAM) grew by 5.4%, driven by 4.5% rent growth and a slight occupancy increase to 91% from 90.4% in the prior corresponding period.

The broker raises its revenue forecasts across FY25-27 but retains a Buy rating and a $1.35 target price.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.145
If ASK meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AVH as Speculative Hold (3) -

Bell Potter points to 4Q24 revenue, which was pre-released in January and came in well below guidance, which management attributed to hospitals ending normal ordering patterns in December 2024, the analyst explains.

While disappointing, the broker believes the business is "stable" and is anticipated to generate topline growth of over 50% in 2025, with Recell Go/Recell Go Mini now in the market.

Speculative Hold and $3.50 target unchanged.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $0.43
If AVH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AVL as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights from recent reporting by AGL Energy ((AGL)) and Origin Energy ((ORG)) an increased focus on expanding battery storage due to growth of renewable generation and closure of coal plants.

This trend favours Australian Vanadium's business, highlight the analysts. The broker retains a Buy, High-Risk rating with a target price of 8c.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.067
If AVL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 515% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Aurizon Holdings has maintained EBITDA and capital expenditure guidance for FY25 in its first half results.

At first glance, network earnings were in line with UBS estimates while bulk was lower because of the contract drop off in the Pilbara, a derailment and volume weakness in key commodities.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and $3.35 target.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.16
If AZJ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.46, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BEN as Sell (5) -

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's 1H cash earnings fell short of Citi and consensus forecasts by -4% and -5%, respectively. Underlying core earnings were respective misses of -11% and -12% after allowing for a $10.5m bad and doubtful debt (BDD) reversal.

The broker's first impressions are the main driver of the miss was lower net interest income (NII), while the net interest margin (NIM) of 1.88% was also well below the analysts' forecast for 1.93% (consensus 1.95%).

While management has aspirations of limiting business-as-usual (BAU) costs to no higher than inflation through the cycle, notes Citi, costs of -$598m were around -2.5% worse-than-expected, while the investment spend was higher, as previously guided.

More positively, the broker highlights strong asset quality as write-offs declined through the half to a negligible number, along with a decline in gross impaired assets.

Overall, Citi points to revenue challenges from the bank's growth strategy, at the same time as costs continue to march higher.

Sell. Target $9.75.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $13.42 Difference: minus $3.67 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.94, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BRG as Neutral (3) -

Citi flags potentially increased competition from SharkNinja, which reported 89% earnings growth in 4Q 2024, compared to Breville Group's food preparation business, which generated a single-digit decline in the latest 1H25 results in the Americas, the analyst explains.

The broker points to potential erosion of espresso market share in Europe to drip coffee. SharkNinja has inferred the European espresso market is mature.

The broker continues to rate the stock as Neutral with a $38.20 target price.

Target price is $38.20 Current Price is $36.90 Difference: $1.3
If BRG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.36, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BSL as Buy (1) -

On first take, BlueScope Steel reported 1H25 results that were better than expected by 5% against consensus estimates, Citi states, due to a more robust result from Australia and higher Colorbond sales on growth in residential demand.

The interim dividend met expectations at 30c per share, and net cash declined to $88m on slightly higher-than-expected capex, the broker explains.

Management aims to generate $500m in incremental earnings from plans to debottleneck North Star and increase production of US Coated Products and value-added products.

The analyst awaits more details at the upcoming earnings call.

Buy rated. Target $24.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $22.35 Difference: $1.65
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.78, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as Buy (1) -

BlueScope Steel beat estimates in its first half result although second half guidance of $360-430m in EBIT was below consensus expectations.

In an initial view UBS notes the strong ASP result and the fact that, while cash flow was weaker than expected, the business is still net cash. An updated long-term strategy is targeting $500m in incremental EBIT by 2030. Buy rating and $24 target unchanged.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $22.35 Difference: $1.65
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.78, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COH as Neutral (3) -

Citi points to what the analyst believes is a significant miss on sound processor upgrades for Cochlear's 1H25 results, which came in below consensus by -13%, viewed as "unusual" in the run-up to the next launch of Kanso 3 in mid-2025.

The company reported 1H25 net profit after tax below the consensus estimate by -2%.

Citi believes patients appear to be experiencing a higher degree of satisfaction with the previous-generation processors and are facing cost-of-living pressures, the broker explains.

Management revised guidance to the bottom end of the $410m-$430m range on softer processor upgrades, with Cochlear implant unit growth of 10% unchanged and expected to pick up to 15% in 2H25 from 5% in 1H25.

EPS forecasts from the analyst are lowered by -2.2% for FY25 and lifted 1.4% in FY26.

Target price slips to $290 from $305. No change to the Neutral rating.

Target price is $290.00 Current Price is $262.73 Difference: $27.27
If COH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $285.54, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COH as Neutral (3) -

Lower-than-expected services revenue in the 1H for Cochlear caused group revenues to miss Macquarie and consensus forecasts by -2% and -3%, respectively.

Capturing this decline in services revenue and higher cloud costs, management's new FY25 revenue guidance is at the low-end of the prior $410-430m range, explains the broker.

Management reaffirmed long-term targets for gross profit at around 75%.

The broker's target falls to $282.15 from $289. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $282.15 Current Price is $262.73 Difference: $19.42
If COH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $285.54, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COH as Hold (3) -

First half results from Cochlear were "mixed" and the quality "poor", Morgans asserts. Soft emerging market tenders for implants offset development market growth although a favourable product mix underpinned sales.

Given the uncertainty surrounding a slowing upgrade cycle and core system upgrades, Morgans considers strong profitable growth will be limited and is more than reflected in the current multiple. The target is reduced to $285.55 from $300.02. Hold maintained.

Target price is $285.55 Current Price is $262.73 Difference: $22.82
If COH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $285.54, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COH as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett flags the downgrade in FY25 earnings guidance for Cochlear at the 1H25 results to the lower end of the target range, with a reduced contribution from services and higher cloud computing costs.

The broker notes 1H25 earnings met expectations, but the result was "soft," and the interim dividend was lower than forecast.

Ord Minnett lowers EPS forecasts by -6% and -3% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Target price falls to $285 from $315 due to lower earnings expectations.

Ord Minnett highlights Cochlear's technology advantage, dominant market position, and unaddressed total addressable market as ongoing positive investment themes for the company. Hold rating retained.

Target price is $285.00 Current Price is $262.73 Difference: $22.27
If COH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $285.54, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COH as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS notes Cochlear's cochlear implant (CI) unit growth was 6% year on year in 2H with stable pricing, and the company continues to expect 10% growth for FY25 implying uplift in 2H. The broker sees 10% unit growth as sustainable mid to long-term as penetration of the adult population increases slowly and steadily.

The broker sees continued strong CI sales (mid-term revenue growth forecast of 9%) as offsetting a lower services base from FY27 onward.

Target price rises to $285 from $270, and rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell.

The broker's upside and downside scenario points to $335 and $210 target price, respectively based on long-term CI revenue growth of 12% or 5%.

Target price is $285.00 Current Price is $262.73 Difference: $22.27
If COH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $285.54, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CQR as Outperform (1) -

First half operating earnings per security (OEPS) for Charter Hall Retail REIT were in line with Macquarie's forecast and management reiterated FY25 guidance of 25.4cpu.

Capital recycling of older shopping centre assets improved portfolio quality over the period, observes the broker.

Look-through gearing has risen to circa 38%, highlights the analyst, as the REIT and joint venture partner Hostplus now own 85.4% of Hotel Property Investments ((HPI)) following a -$318m investment.

The target rises to $3.51 from $3.45. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $3.51 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.13
If CQR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CQR as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett liked the 1H25 results from Charter Hall Retail REIT, which came in better than expected, and management reiterated FY25 guidance.

The broker highlights the sale of Lake Macquarie Square to assist with managing the higher level of gearing at 38%.

Operationally, the REIT's metrics remained "solid," the analyst states, with high occupancy of 98% and 84% retention rates.

The REIT currently controls 85% of Hotel Properties Investments ((HPI)) and will most likely have full ownership in 2H25.

No change to Accumulate rating. Target price lifts to $3.86 from $3.81. The NTA rose by 1.3% to $4.57.

Target price is $3.86 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.48
If CQR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CVL as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Civmec delivered a "disappointing" first half result as Morgans assesses both revenue and margins eased considerably quarter on quarter. The outlook commentary also appeared more negative with the order book declining to $633m from $800m in the first quarter.

The company has observed a shift in market conditions, which is driving delays in the awarding of key projects and also contributing to rescheduling. This should result in lower levels of activity during the second half with the potential to extend into the first half of FY26.

Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add and lowers the target to $1.10 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.04
If CVL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights Domain Holdings Australia's cost management in 1H25 results, which offset increased costs from Audience Boost and revenue that came in lower than the broker's forecasts.

The analyst lowers earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation by -1% to -4% on weaker growth in yield, as REA Group ((REA)) generates improved yield growth.

Domain is trading at a -30% discount to global peers, but Citi views concern around the company's strategic direction and negative listings in the June quarter as weighing on the stock.

Neutral rated. Target $3.25.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $0.15
If DHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNC as Hold (3) -

GrainCorp provided earnings guidance for FY25 at its AGM that was well below expectations. Underlying EBITDA guidance is $270-320m, which would be up 0.8-19.5% on FY24, Morgans observes, and well below the company's "through-the-cycle" guidance.

The seasonal outlook for FY26 appears "somewhat favourable" to the broker although there is a way to go until harvest. Morgans reduces the target to $8.04 from $8.81. Hold maintained.

Target price is $8.04 Current Price is $7.04 Difference: $1
If GNC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.67, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

At first glance, GPT Group reported a robust 2024 result, Citi notes, with progress across all divisions and funds from operations of 32.2c, which was in line with the broker and consensus estimates.

Occupancy for the investment portfolio came in at 98.6%, with robust performance from retail and net property income growth of 4.9%.

Office occupancy rose to 94.7%, and logistics performed very well, the broker explains. Funds under management came in at $34.1bn.

Management expects a 2025 distribution of 32.2c, which is in line with expectations.

Buy rated with a $5 target. Citi views the market response to the result as positive.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.65 Difference: $0.35
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GQG as Outperform (1) -

FY24 EPS for GQG Partners beat Macquarie and consensus forecasts by around 5%. The analyst highlights the outlook for net flows is supported by performance given all four primary strategies outperformed their benchmarks on a three, five and ten-year basis.

Average funds under management (FUM) rose by 45.4% and the operating margin increased by 170bps to 76%.

To provide increased balance sheet flexibility, management expanded its dividend payout ratio to 50-95% from 85-95%.

The Outperform rating and $3 target are maintained.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $0.56
If GQG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GQG as Add (1) -

GQG Partners posted a net profit increase of 53% for 2024, the results beating expectations, while Morgans notes flows outlook remains solid at the group level. Meaningful growth is envisaged, based on current fund offerings.

The dividend payout policy range has changed to 50-95% with the company indicating it will have the flexibility to build capital for strategic opportunities. FY25 has commenced well, with the broker noting US$1.7 bn of net inflows for January.

Add rating maintained. Target is raised to $2.85 from $2.45.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $0.41
If GQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GQG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes GQG Partners reported slightly better-than-expected 1H25 results, with good momentum in operating leverage and fee margins, the broker explains.

Net profit after tax advanced by 53%, coming in 2.8% above consensus, with a final dividend of US3.78c versus the broker's forecast of US3.71c per share.

The analyst lifts EPS forecasts by 6% and 7% for FY25 and FY26, respectively, and highlights that the stock is trading on a 9.6% dividend yield.

Ord Minnett believes the new Quality Value rebrand and US Equity Strategy offer the company good growth potential.

Target price lifts to $2.90 from $2.80. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $0.46
If GQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GQG as Neutral (3) -

UBS noted GQG's FY24 result quality was solid with recurring management fee margins inching up, as shift towards higher margin wholesale more than offset strategy-mix headwinds. 

Notwithstanding a sequential 11% increase in headcount in 2H, costs appeared well controlled, seeing operating margins expand 230bps sequentially to 78.3%, the broker highlights.

The broker lifts EPS forecasts for FY25-26 by 7% each reflecting more resilient management fee margins, lower performance fees, lower operating expense, and higher 1H25 funds under management and flow outlook. Target price rises to $2.55 from $2.43 but Neutral retained.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $0.11
If GQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HCW as Buy (1) -

HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT's FY24 funds from operations (FFO) of 8cpu met forecasts by Bell Potter and consensus.

FY25 guidance is for FFO and a dividend of 8.4cpu.

Bell Potter tweaks funds from operations estimates by 0% to -4% for FY25-FY27 based on the change in the February bank bill swap rate, the half-year results, and $47m in asset sales.

The Buy rating and $1.30 target are retained.

Given the around 5% FY25 earnings growth (unlike most REITs) forecast by Bell Potter, the analyst sees value at the current share price, especially as a buyback places a floor under the stock price.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.32
If HCW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HCW as Outperform (1) -

Ongoing uncertainty regarding key tenant Healthscope outweighs a "solid" 1H result for HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT, in Macquarie's view.

Management retained FY25 FFO and DPU guidance, subject to the ongoing performance of the portfolio, including the contractual obligations of Healthscope.

Target rises to $1.05 from $1.02. Outperform. Macquarie expects the ongoing discount to net tangible assets (NTA) for the REIT will continue until sector-wide private hospital challenges are resolved.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.07
If HCW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HCW as Underweight (5) -

HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT has reiterated FY25 distribution guidance of 8.4c. Morgan Stanley, at first glance, notes this includes a new assumption regarding the continued contractual obligations of Healthscope. First half earnings were largely in line.

The broker points out HMC Capital Private Equity has approached the company about taking over Healthscope leases but it is not clear whether this means it will assume operations as well.

Underweight rating. Target is $1.04. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.04 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.06
If HCW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HLO as Buy, High Risk (1) -

December overseas arrivals and departures data from the ABS showing respective increases of 8.7% and 11.6% over the prior year bodes well for Helloworld Travel, in Shaw and Partners' view.

Provisional ABS data for January 2025 show further rises for arrivals and departures of 12.2% and 16.8%.

No change to the Buy rating, High risk, and $3.50 target price.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $1.42
If HLO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 34.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates IFM as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Infomedia will outlay around -$10m to acquire 50% of German-based AI startup Intellegam. An option to acquire the remaining 50% over five years capped at -$120m suggests to Shaw and Partners potential for material revenue and profitability over time.

The broker highlights the transaction as a low-risk way for management to integrate AI into its business.

Target price $2.10. Buy rating (high risk) retained.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.65
If IFM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IFM as Buy (1) -

Infomedia announced a binding agreement to acquire 50% of Intellegam GmbH for a purchase price of EUR6.1m split between cash
paid over two years and approximately 2.85m shares.

The agreement provides the company with a pathway to acquire the remaining 50% of Intellegam over five years, subject to certain hurdles. The company expects the transaction to close in March and it doesn't expect any material impact on the FY25 earnings.

UBS maintains Buy rating and $1.75 target price pending further analysis of the deal.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.3
If IFM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley downgrades James Hardie Industries to Equal-weight from Overweight and lowers the target to $55 from $60.

The rise in US mortgage rates is considered a negative for US demand, particularly in terms of renovations which drives around 65% of the company's volumes in North America.

This is is likely to push out an earnings recovery and create downside risk for FY26, the broker asserts. Despite this the longer-term structural growth opportunity remains intact. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $51.45 Difference: $3.55
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.91, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LGI as Buy (1) -

LGI reported 1H25 results that broadly met Bell Potter's expectations, except the bottom-line earnings missed the broker's forecast.

Revenue grew 7%, while net profit after tax declined by -22% on the previous corresponding period, and operating cash flow fell -17.7%, with cash on hand coming in at $1.9m at the end of the period.

The analyst views the results as "unsurprising" given the increase in the operating scale of the business and the associated rise in employee costs, along with higher depreciation/amortisation expenses.

Bell Potter believes the decline in earnings is short term and relates to the work in progress for upgrades to Mugga Lane and Eastern Creek.

The analyst lowered EPS estimates by -2% and -4% for FY25/FY26.

Buy rated with a $3.50 target price.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.5
If LGI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LGI as Buy (1) -

In the wake of LGI's 1H results and unchanged earnings (EBITDA) guidance, Shaw and Partners marginally lowers its earnings forecasts across FY25-27.

First half earnings of $7.3m compared to the analyst's 7.9m forecast due to higher-than-expected operational expenses at Mugga Lane and Eastern Creek.

The broker highlights the number of sites under management is set to increase, with four new sites agreeing to terms in the half, bringing the portfolio to 36 sites.

The Buy, High Risk rating and $3.60 target price are retained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.6
If LGI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Buy (1) -

Lendlease Group's 1H operating profit after tax of $122m, released today, missed the consensus forecast for $181m but was in line with Citi's $122m estimate. Despite this outcome, the broker expects stock outperformance today given recent weakness.

In an early assessment, the analysts note a strong performance in the development business (driven by community sale profits), was offset by negative -$100m of EBITDA in construction.

Operating EPS of 17.7 cents compares to management guidance provided in late-January of 17-20c for 1H25, and missed the broker and consensus forecasts for 18.8c and 26.2c. FY25 EPS guidance of 54-62c has been maintained.

Buy. Target $8.00.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.74 Difference: $1.26
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.96, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGR as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights that the most positive aspect of Mirvac Group's 1H25 results was the lift in sales over 2Q25 due to project launch timing, which provides increased earnings transparency for the future.

While more upbeat on a turnaround in the residential sector, the broker remains concerned about the company's development business, which is a more significant contributor to earnings compared to competitors and continues to face higher construction costs.

Neutral rating retained as Mirvac Group trades at a discount to NTA of -10% and on an FY25 forward price-to-earnings valuation of 16.5x. Target is $2.20.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.09
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie raises its target for Mirvac Group by 18% to $2.56 and maintains an Outperform rating after 1H operating earnings per security (OEPS) of 6 cents exceeded the 5.7 cent consensus forecast. Management reiterated FY25 guidance for 12-12.3 cents.

The broker has increasing confidence FY25 will mark the low point for the group's earnings, expecting a recovery in FY26. Margins were a positive surprise at circa 19%, albeit due to a higher weighting to master planned community (MPC) portfolio settlements.

Management noted a strong pick-up in residential sales with 947 lots sold in the half, noting the higher end of the market (e.g.,
Harbourside) has exceeded expectations, with deep demand for premium product.

Target price is $2.56 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.45
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley reviews its outlook for Mirvac Group post the first half result and considers FY25 is complicated by one-off profits which are offset by losses/impairments.

The broker believes that the company can "ring fence" challenged projects it would pave the way for growth across FY26-28. The main risks include the sale of Badgery's Creek and success in clearing inventory at Willoughby.

Target is $2.25. Equal-weight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.14
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MGR as Neutral (3) -

Following Mirvac Group's 1H25 earnings, UBS left its earnings forecast over FY25-29 little-changed, noting the key focus for investors is the range of potential outcomes in FY26-27.

The broker sees strong 8% growth into FY26 as commercial development recovers and 15% growth into FY27 driven by strong residential growth. Mirvac should benefit as interest rate cuts come through and residential sales improve, though much of this dynamic is already reflected in consensus earnings, UBS highlights.

Target price cut marginally to $2.28 from $2.29. Neutral retained.

Target price is $2.28 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.17
If MGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

Citi observes the technical report for Wodgina from US Albemarle Corp, noting the different criteria from the respective stock exchanges.

The update highlights the issues around reconciling the factors for the joint venture, with a variance of plus or minus 20% on tonnes, the broker explains.

Currently, consensus for Wodgina is around $3bn or $15.50/share for Mineral Resources' half, with long-term pricing of US$1350/t, against the technical report at $1.3bn or $6.70/share at US$1300/t.

The company is due to report after the market on February 18, and the broker notes lithium is not a key focus for management and is forecast to be earnings neutral this half-year.

Neutral rated. Target price $35.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $32.39 Difference: $2.61
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.51, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NST as Add (1) -

First half earnings from Northern Star Resources were driven by a strong gold price and underlying EBITDA exceeded expectations.

Morgans believes the company is on track for strong production and earnings growth in FY25 and continues to strengthen its position as a significant global gold producer.

Add rating retained. Target rises to $21.57 from $20.04. The broker updates its modelling to incorporate changes in the spot gold price, now US$2850.

Target price is $21.57 Current Price is $18.56 Difference: $3.01
If NST meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.77, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORA as Overweight (1) -

Further to the "disappointing" first half result from Orora, Morgan Stanley revises forecasts, decreasing EBIT estimates by -24% for FY25 by -9% for FY26.

The broker believes an inflection point in Saverglass volume and earnings will be the key catalyst in order to realise the inherent valuation upside in the stock.

Target is reduced to $2.50 from $2.70. Overweight. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.28
If ORA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.42, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORA as Hold (3) -

The Australian glass business was singled out as a factor for the lower-than-expected 1H25 earnings report from Orora, Ord Minnett notes, with the weakness largely in wine and beer bottles.

Management is addressing the ongoing decline in commercial wine and beer volumes by shuttering Furnace 3 at Gawler.

Saverglass performed relatively well, although the broker highlights that Orora paid too much for it. Positively, the analyst notes volumes in the last three months of 2Q25 started to improve.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -20% in FY25 and -8% in FY26.

No change to Hold rating. Target price slips to $2.40 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.18
If ORA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.42, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PLY as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners lowers its target for Playside Studios to 50c from 90c on lower forecast cashflows due to a delay in timing of expected work-for-hire contracts. The broker sees a good entry point for higher-risk investors after a share price fall.

The analysts highlight management has taken remedial action to reduce costs, and, importantly, investment in key original IP (OIP) titles is being maintained. Material revenue is expected in 1H26 from the release of "MOUSE: P.I. For Hire."

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.275
If PLY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QPM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett keeps its Speculative Buy rating and 12c target price for QPM Energy following a site visit to the Moranbah gas operations which highlighted both good quality infrastructure and latent capacity to support growth.

Management is on track to deliver gas production growth of 25% compared to the December quarter. The broker explains the increase is due to recently developed wells and the resurgence of third-party supply post the transfer of Grosvenor to Peabody in mid-2025.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.063
If QPM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Buy (1) -

South32's 1H earnings came in ahead of the consensus forecast and mangement reiterated FY25 production guidance, observes Ord Minnett.

While operating cash flow was a material miss due to increased working capital, explains the broker, management noted the first half build-up was already unwinding in the current half.

No change to the Buy rating. Target rises to $4.45 from $4.30.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.8
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SPG as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on SPC Global with a Buy rating, noting prospects for operating earnings (EBITDA) growth of circa 34% per annum over the next three years given a recent three-way merger.

The broker expects the merger between the iconic SPC brand, the Original Juice Co, and Nature One Dairy will result in cost savings and revenue benefits, as well as opportunities to grow volumes and margins.

Upside is expected, explains the analyst, from a rebound in SPC volumes, expansion of the Nature One Dairy customer base, and boosting production capacity at the Original Juice Co.

A target of $1.00 is set. 

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.16
If SPG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

FY24 results for Santos are due this Wednesday and Macquarie forecasts underlying profit of US$1,448m and a final dividend of US10.4 cents, assuming a 40% payout.

The broker anticipates first production in the 2H of FY25 for key growth projects Barossa and the Pikka oil project in Alaska.

The target rises to $9.10 from $8.95. Outperform retained.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $6.96 Difference: $2.14
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.19, suggesting upside of 19.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SYR as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS resumes research coverage and lowers its target for Syrah Resources to 30 cents from 80 cents and downgrades to Neutral from Buy due to ongoing headwinds at both a company and industry level.

The broker's lower target is driven largely by cutting sales price and volume forecasts at the Balama graphite mine by up to -40% and -25%, respectively.

The mine remains under force majeure due to civil unrest in the country, triggering events of default with the company's creditors, explains the broker.

While graphite prices have likely bottomed, the analysts don't see any near-term fundamental catalysts for a price re-rate with Chinese synthetic capacity remaining an overhang.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.055
If SYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.41, suggesting upside of 62.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLC as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Lottery Corp will report 1H25 results on February 25, and the analyst flags expectations of a decline in earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) of -9% to $316m.

The analyst views a lowering of FY25 EBIT estimates as likely but believes the stock will be ascribed a higher valuation and remains Buy rated with a $5.60 target price.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $0.62
If TLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TPW as Buy (1) -

The 1H25 result from Temple & Webster provided Citi with more confidence in the company's ability to grow both revenue and margins simultaneously and the extent of the impact from improved operating leverage.

The broker expects AI use will serve to improve margins over time, and the analyst has increased optimism around management achieving the target 15% margin at the earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation level.

Citi lifts the earnings before interest and tax estimate by 29%. Buy rating remains, with an increase in the target price to $21.10 from $13.10.

Coverage of the stock is transferred to a new analyst.

Target price is $21.10 Current Price is $18.04 Difference: $3.06
If TPW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.68, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TPW as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS believes the jump in the Temple & Webster share price post the first half results is overdone, given the market was positioned for a strong trading update that, in its estimation, came in "slightly short".

January is considered seasonally one of the strongest months for the company and the implications of a growth slowdown are "worthy of some focus", in the broker's view. An upcoming federal election also poses some potential disruption risk.

UBS cannot justify the current valuations and downgrades to Sell from Neutral, raising the target to $15.50 from $11.80. Forecasts and valuation incorporate a long-term 15% EBITDA margin target which implies the market has now priced in this outcome.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $18.04 Difference: minus $2.54 (current price is over target).
If TPW meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.68, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Post conference call with management, Citi analysts report the company seems to have increased confidence about its ability to sell into China based on brand health, depletion trends and customer demand.

This, the analysts suggest, might increase the likelihood the company takes price at some point, which would suggest upside to Penfolds' multi-year earnings guidance.

Target price moves to $13.85. Buy rated.

Target price is $13.85 Current Price is $10.83 Difference: $3.02
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.18, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

For the 1H results by Treasury Wine Estates, UBS highlights earnings (EBITS) of $391.4m slightly exceeded forecasts by the broker and consensus for $387m.

Penfolds performed above expectations while the Americas and Treasury Premium Brands (TPB) missed expectations held by the broker and consensus. UBS believes the longer term outlook for Penfolds is positive with upside risk to the growth guidance.

Disappointingly, notes the broker, management lowered earnings guidance to $780m from $780-810m (consensus $795m; UBS $790m) due to the weaker-than-expected TPB performance.

UBS lowers ESP estimates by -5% for FY25 and lifts FY26 by 2%.

A 20 cent interim dividend was declared, aligning with the consensus forecast. Target $14.00. Buy.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $10.83 Difference: $3.17
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.18, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VVA as Buy (1) -

Viva Leisure reported 1H25 results that met expectations, according to Citi, at the earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation (EBITDA) level.

The broker notes management's strategy to generate cash from existing clubs rather than retain the rate of club expansion.

Earnings before interest and tax forecasts are lowered by -7% and -9% for FY25/FY26 by the analyst, with the company seeking to show "proof of concept" from existing assets, which should generate more long-term growth.

Citi remains Buy rated with a $2.60 target price.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $1.15
If VVA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Sell (5) -

Today's Westpac December quarter result was better-than-expected by Citi across the board, with profit of $1.9bn, ex notable items, beating the broker and consensus forecasts by 5% and 7%, respectively.

The broker's first impression is the beat was due to a low bad and doubtful BDD charge of around -5bps of average loans (consensus forecast -9bps) as new non-performing loan growth slowed.

The broker attributes a revenue beat to stronger markets income, driving better than expected other operating income (OOI), while costs only worsened by -1%.

Target $26.25. Sell.

Target price is $26.25 Current Price is $34.71 Difference: minus $8.46 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.84, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WBC as Buy (1) -

At first glance, UBS found the first quarter trading update from Westpac "slightly soft" relative to expectations. Unaudited cash earnings of $1.7bn were down on the second half quarterly average.

Yet "noise" from hedging might be detracting from what is  largely an "in-line" result, the broker adds. Overall, costs are trending better relative to consensus. The broker retains a Buy rating with a target of $40.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $34.71 Difference: $5.29
If WBC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.84, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WGX as Outperform (1) -

Westgold Resources' underlying 1H result was broadly in line, highlights Macquarie, adjusting for Karora acquisition costs, but missed consensus estimates by around -4%.

Capital is being retained for growth, so no interim dividend was declared, missing respective forecasts by the broker and consensus for 1 cent and 3 cents.

Management left recently downgraded production guidance unchanged.

The Outperform rating and $3.20 target are unchanged.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.67
If WGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WGX as Outperform (1) -

Westgold Resources' underlying 1H result was broadly in line, highlights Macquarie, adjusting for Karora acquisition costs, but missed consesnus estimates by around -4%.

Capital is being retained for growth, so no interim dividend was declared, missing respective forecasts by the broker and consensus for 1 cent and 3 cents.

Management left recently downgraded production guidance unchanged.

The Outperform rating and $3.20 target are unchanged.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.67
If WGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources