Australian Broker Call

UBS rates A2M as Buy (1) -

UBS expects an around 60% rise in profit for a2 Milk Co from FY25-28, underpinned by infant formula share gains across both English-label and China-label channels.

Driving margin expansion, the analysts highlight operating leverage and reduced losses at both Mataura Valley Milk and the US business.

Sales momentum into 2H FY25 remains strong, assesses the broker, despite possible June sell-in weakness tied to Synlait Milk ((SM1)) manufacturing issues. Brand health, Douyin channel growth and robust Stage 1 & 2 performance are expected to support growth.

UBS forecasts FY25 earnings (EBITDA) growth of 16%, in line with guidance and consensus, but expects upside to 2H sales if product supply issues ease.

The NZ$9.95 target and Buy rating are unchanged.

Current Price is $7.77. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $7.59, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes junior equity raisings rose 86% y/y in July, marking 10 straight months of positive growth and reaching the highest since February 2021.

The broker's proxy for gold and copper sector's exploration spend bodes well for lab services and assay providers like ALS Ltd, with rising sample throughput expected in 2H26.

The broker notes the company's growth is at the lower end of guidance, but remains solid and supported by regulatory tailwinds.

Overall, commentary suggests, the company appears on track to meet its FY26 targets, benefitting from both cyclical upswing in commodities and structural trends in Life Sciences. 

Buy. Target unchanged at $19.70.

Target price is $19.70 Current Price is $17.82 Difference: $1.88
If ALQ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.03, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Following Bellevue Gold's site visit and FY26 update, Macquarie notes the production guidance of 130-150koz was lower than 150koz flagged previously, and was -7% below its forecast.

The guidance is based on conservative estimates around development metres which leaves scope for upside risk, though the broker didn't incorporate it in the revised forecasts.

Development rate is expected at 270m/jumbo rig/month, lower than 330m achieved recently. EPS forecast for FY26 cut by -32% and by -18% for FY27.

Outperform.Target trimmed to $1.25 from $1.30. 

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.42
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 35.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BGL as Hold (3) -

Management at Bellevue Gold has downgraded FY26 production and grade guidance while lifting costs (AISC), which Ord Minnett considers a more realistic baseline.

The broker now forecasts FY26 output of 143koz versus company guidance of 130–150koz.

The analyst suggests the company's ongoing strategic review may be hindered by an estimated -$340m hedge book loss and a power plan up to -$50m per annum more expensive than peers.

Ord Minnett cuts its FY26 and FY27 earnings forecasts by -39.1% and -11.9%, respectively, due to higher costs and slightly lower volumes, with no change to FY25.

The target price falls to $1.10 from $1.15. Hold retained.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.27
If BGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 35.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Sell (5) -

Shares in Beach Energy rose 4% following a better-than-expected 6c final dividend, notes Citi, despite a payout below its flagged free cash flow range.

The broker remains cautious, citing ongoing execution risk at Waitsia, early-stage Otway work, and continued weather disruptions at Cooper.

Production is expected to peak at around 22.9mmboe at Waitsia in FY27 before declining, with interventions at Thylacine and La Bella helping offset Otway depletion.

Citi believes consensus underestimates the capex intensity needed to sustain output post-FY26 as high-grade Cooper Basin targets deplete.

Beach holds $700m in balance sheet capacity, highlights the broker, which could support acquisitions to extend its 2P reserve life of around seven years. 

Citi retains its Sell rating and target price of $1.05.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.21, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes the market will consider Beach Energy's FY25 results as a non-event, despite the FY26 production guidance which missed consensus expectations by -10% and the analyst's estimate by -7%.

FY25 earnings (EBITDA) rose 20%, which was in line but below consensus by -2%, while capex guidance broadly meets Morgan Stanley's estimate but sits above consensus. Abandonment guidance is also above expectations.

The analyst is awaiting further news from the earnings call but expects downward consensus EPS revisions.

Underweight. Target $1.14. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.14 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.21, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BPT as Hold (3) -

Morgans views Beach Energy's FY25 result as "clean," which was in line with consensus, including a higher margin at 57%, up 300bps, and improved costs.

The company disappointed on FY26 guidance, with production set around 19.7–22.0mmboe, capex at -$675m–$775m, and abandonment -$200m–$250m, which all suggests negative cash flow expectations to the analyst.

Waitsia delays continue, with first gas target pushed back to 1Q26. Morgans stresses any further delays or setbacks would incrementally damage sentiment towards the stock.

No change to Hold rating. Target falls to $1.16 from $1.35.

Target price is $1.16 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.21, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Hold (3) -

Beach Energy’s FY25 earnings aligned with recently downgraded guidance, while final dividends exceeded consensus.

The broker believes the successful de-risking of Waitsia now sets the company up for imminent M&A to address its short reserve life and production outlook.

Balance sheet capacity could support $0.5–1.0bn in acquisitions, in the analyst's view, but dividend reductions and Otway deferrals may be required, with execution risk remaining elevated.

The broker's forecasts for FY26–28 earnings have been upgraded 4.9–5.3% on lower D&A, lower near-term capex and higher output in FY27.

Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and target price of $1.20.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.02
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.21, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes Beach Energy's FY25 final dividend of 6c beat expectations, though FY26 cash flow is expected to decline and constrain dividends.

FY26 production guidance is -11% below consensus, with reductions across most assets except Waitsia, where the analysts see ramp-up risks.

UBS highlights Beach’s (relatively low) seven-year reserve life and sees FY26 drilling at Otway as critical, alongside potential inorganic growth..

The broker's FY26 EPS forecast is cut by -2% on lower production, partially offset by lower Otway costs and LNG cargo assumptions, while FY28 EPS is raised 1%.

UBS lowers its target price to $1.20 from $1.25 and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.02
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.21, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BXB as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS' 2025 Pallet User Survey pointed to a more challenging volume backdrop for Brambles' CHEP USA in FY26 vs FY25, with price the number one factor, the highest in the survey's history.

The survey suggests CHEP will find it harder to win new business but price growth in low single-digit is still expected. The broker believes lower volume but higher pricing would still be a decent free cash flow outcome for the company as it means lower invested capital.

So while sales growth could disappoint expectations, EBIT and FCF forecasts could still be supportive of the stock outlook.

Target rises to $24 from $23 on roll forward, with changes to forecasts minor. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy following share price gains.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $23.74 Difference: $0.26
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.57, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett raises its target price for COG Financial Services to $1.92 from $1.38 following the divestment of non-core holdings in EarlyPay ((EPY)) and Centrepoint Alliance.

These transactions unlock around $26m in net proceeds to support growth in novated leasing, asset finance and insurance broking, explains the broker.

The analyst expects FY25 profit (NPATA) to be broadly flat excluding divestment profits, but notes stronger earnings diversification and a more balanced return profile.

Ord Minnett forecasts Novated leasing earnings will grow 18% in FY25, supported by new contract wins and rising customer penetration.

Liquidity of over $30m is available for organic or inorganic initiatives, highlights the broker, pending clarity on capital deployment.

Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating.

Target price is $1.92 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: $0.11
If COG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSC as Buy (1) -

Citi assesses a solid June quarter result from Capstone Copper, with 57.4kt produced at a cost (C1) of US$2.45/lb and free cash flow of US$95m, in line with expectations.

Production challenges included weaker Mantoverde recoveries at 77% due to transitional ore, and drought-related disruption at Pinto Valley, which is expected to miss guidance by around -3kt.

Mantos Blancos and Cozamin both outperformed on throughput and costs, while overall 2H guidance of 220–225kt at C1 US$2.20–2.50/lb was reaffirmed.

An update on the Santo Domingo strategic partnership is expected in the September quarter, with a final investment decision (FID) now likely in mid-2026, highlights the broker.

Citi raises its target price by 30c to $11.00 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.02 Difference: $1.98
If CSC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.10, suggesting upside of 31.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Capstone Copper's 2Q25 group copper production was in line with the consensus, while cash cost of US$2.45/lb beat by 3%.

Revenue met expectations but lower costs resulted in a 6% beat on EBITDA. Net profit, however, missed the broker's forecast by -27% as lower depreciation rate was previously assumed.

The company expects outcome on the minority selldown in Santo Domingo in 3Q25. The broker regards this as a positive development and will focus on the price achieved.

Outperform. Target unchanged at $13.30.

Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $9.02 Difference: $4.28
If CSC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.10, suggesting upside of 31.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DUR as Buy (1) -

Duratec has acquired EIG Australia, a specialst in electrial infrastructure for fuels and fluid transfer, for up to -$9m consisting of cash -$4.6m, shares and deferred payment.

Bell Potter highlights EIG is a strong fit with the company's existing businesses in energy, defence, mining and industrial. The acquisition is low-risk and aligns with the company's disciplined and synergistic M&A approach.

FY26 EPS forecast lifted by 6.5% and FY27 by 4.8% after factoring in revenue and EBITDA guidance.

Buy. Target rises to $1.85 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.4
If DUR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EDV as Hold (3) -

Endeavour Group announced resignation of Executive Chairman Ari Mervis, effective immediately, due to disagreements with the board. Bell Potter didn't make any comment on this.

The company also provided FY25 update, expecting revenue of $12.06bn vs the broker's $12.09bn forecast. Net profit guidance is also in line with the broker's estimate after accounting for -$15m one-offs.

The broker points to recent liquor turnover data, noting an upside risk to FY26 retail revenue forecasts if liquor spending growth picks up due to falling interest rates.

At the same time, margins are expected to remain under pressure from competition, mainly from Liquorland ((COL)). Hold. Target unchanged at $4.50.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.16 Difference: $0.34
If EDV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Citi expresses concern over the abrupt exit from Endeavour Group of Executive Chairman and Interim CEO Ari Mervis, citing increased instability at a time when retail liquor market conditions remain difficult.

The broker believes his leadership and sector experience would have added value during the ongoing turnaround.

The incoming CEO will not assume full responsibilities until January 2026, leaving the CFO as interim CEO for five months.

While management has ruled out a near-term earnings reset, the broker awaits clarity on the upcoming strategy refresh and whether FY26 value targets will be revised.

The broker's earnings forecasts for FY25-27 are cut by -3% to -2%, driven by lower-than-expected FY25 statutory profit guidance of $420–425m and ongoing cost pressures. Citi’s underlying FY25 profit estimate is $434m.

The broker lowers its target price to $4.54 from $4.59 and retains a Sell rating.

Target price is $4.54 Current Price is $4.16 Difference: $0.38
If EDV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EDV as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers the resignation of Endeavour Group's Executive Chairman adds further uncertainty to the company until the new CEO starts in January 2026.

The company's FY25 trading update showed sales in line with consensus and net profit after tax around $420m–$525m, which incorporates one-off items like restructuring, redundancy costs, and an impairment.

Equal-weight and $4.60 target retained. Industry View: In-Line. The broker believes the valuation is reasonable and it is unlikely there will be a near-term re-rating of the stock.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.16 Difference: $0.44
If EDV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GDG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights Generation Development as the key third stock idea in the small/mid-cap space ahead of earnings results and emphasises how a weaker July trading update --notably for Evidentia-- was flagged in advance, with consensus expectations in the run-up too high.

The analyst does believe there is ongoing earnings upside from the turnaround in markets post April, with the company underperforming Hub24 ((HUB)) and Netwealth Group ((NWL)).

With legislative changes around Division 296, which are expected to come into effect from July 1, 2025, there is potential for substantial reallocation out of superannuation and into alternatives, commentary suggests.

There is also implied upside from BlackRock's JV agreement regarding annuities. Overweight. Target price set at $6.25 with an undemanding valuation. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.95 Difference: $0.3
If GDG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie explains Insurance Australia Group has repriced ahead of claims inflation in 2H25, but margin pressure in Personal Motor now appears to be emerging and is expected to offset ongoing improvement in Home.

With underlying margins having likely peaked, the broker maintains a cautious view on the sector and retains a Neutral rating on Insurance Australia Group.

The $9.20 target is maintained.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $8.63 Difference: $0.57
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.01, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley points to the current "surge" in AI capex being underpinned by the four hyperscalers, which is expected to underwrite growth in global data centre capacity by 23% on a compound average rate to 2030.

The broker is forecasting Australian capacity to grow to 3,200MW by 2030 from 1,275MW, a compound rate of 18% per annum, with energy the main obstacle to building data centres, followed by planning permission.

Infratil is viewed as a major beneficiary, with a landbank that can support over 1.5GW and is well placed with Canberra Data Centres (CDC) able to find and secure sites as well as overseeing construction and development.

Morgan Stanley estimates 40%–50% of the company's asset value sits in data centres in A&NZ, with the stake in CDC worth around $7.5bn, which is viewed as undervalued.

Overweight maintained. Target is NZ$15. Industry view is Attractive.

Current Price is $10.45. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPH as Outperform (1) -

IPH Ltd volumes declined by -16% in June (compared to a -10% decline for 1H25), highlights Macquarie, which is well below market activity growth of 1%.

The company's market share slipped to 26.1% in June from 28.2% over 2H25. Approximately 70% of IPH's income is recurring, the broker notes.

US patent activity growth continues to remain weak, observes the analyst, down -6.6% on a rolling quarterly basis and down -4.6% on an annualised rolling basis to April 2025.

Macquarie highlights the company's patent filings remain volatile, down -19% on a year earlier in June and down -16% for 2H25.

The Outperform rating and a $6.75 target are maintained. IPH is due to report FY25 results on August 25.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $1.51
If IPH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.51, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JMS as Outperform (1) -

The highlight of Jupiter Mines' 4Q25 result was strong sales which beat Macquarie's forecast by 31%, resulting in a stronger-than-expected EBITDA. Net profit was ahead of the broker's forecast by 120% at $25.9m.

Production was -5% below the broker's forecast and realised pricing also missed estimate. Closing cash was -7% lower than the broker's estimate on tax and royalty payments.

FY25 EPS forecast lifted by 6% after incorporating the result.

Outperform. Target unchanged at 23c.

Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.02
If JMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MAQ as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley points to the current "surge" in AI capex being underpinned by the four hyperscalers, which is expected to underwrite growth in global data centre capacity by 23% on a compound average rate to 2030.

Macquarie Technology is viewed as a key beneficiary, with the broker forecasting Australian capacity to grow to 3,200MW by 2030 from 1,275MW, a compound rate of 18% per annum, and energy the main obstacle to building data centres, followed by planning permission.

The company provides a different way for investors to gain exposure to cloud/AI domestically, and the analyst views the data centre assets as undervalued at an estimated $50/share versus $68/share.

Morgan Stanley estimates Macquarie Technology will require -$2.2bn–$3bn of land and capex funding, and revenues of around $500m and earnings (EBITDA) of $150m–$200m could be generated annually at full load.

Overweight rating retained with $102 target price. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $102.00 Current Price is $68.48 Difference: $33.52
If MAQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MYS as Buy (1) -

A key focus at Mystate's FY25 result on August 19, Ord Minnett highlights, will be the initial four-month contribution from Auswide Bank merger and synergy benefits. Dividend will also be watched.

The broker will look for updates to the $20-25m merger synergy benefit and any disappointment on the 2H dividend.

The broker expects FY25 net profit of $41.7m and final dividend of 11c.

Buy. Target price $4.58.

Target price is $4.58 Current Price is $4.23 Difference: $0.35
If MYS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NIC as Downgrade to Neutral High Risk from Buy HighRisk (3) -

Citi lowers its target for Nickel Industries to 80c from 90c and downgrades to Neutral, High Risk from Buy, High Risk.

The broker sees June quarter results as broadly in line operationally, with stable first-half earnings (EBITDA) but weaker cash conversion due to a working capital build, leaving cash at $145m.

In its modeling, the broker delays the commissioning of the Excelsior Nickel Cobalt (ENC) High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) project to 1H26 and Sampala to 2H26 as management awaits sales and production permits.

Upcoming catalysts, suggest the analysts, include a US$110m VAT refund, circa $250m in ENC payments, working capital unwind in 2H, and bond refinancing over six months. 

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.07
If NIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.03, suggesting upside of 43.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NXT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley points to the current "surge" in AI capex being underpinned by the four hyperscalers, which is expected to underwrite growth in global data centre capacity by 23% on a compound average rate to 2030.

NextDC is considered a key beneficiary in Australia, with a landbank over 1GW. The broker forecasts Australian capacity to grow to 3,200MW by 2030 from 1,275MW, a compound rate of 18% per annum, with energy the main obstacle to building data centres, followed by planning permission.

NextDC's landbank will cost an estimated -$15bn–$20bn to build, with an internal rate of return of 12%, which exceeds the weighted average cost of capital at 7.7%, currently.

Overweight rating and $20.10 target. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $20.10 Current Price is $14.27 Difference: $5.83
If NXT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.59, suggesting upside of 33.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMD as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie describes ResMed's 4Q25 result as solid, with revenue beating its forecast and the consensus by 1%, and gross margin rising 230bps y/y to 61.4%, 150bps higher than its own estimate.

Gross margin outperformance was due to operational efficiencies and forex benefit. The company expects gross margin of 61-63% in FY26 compared with the broker's estimate of 62.2%. 

Free cash flow in FY25 rose 28% y/y to US$1.7bn, leaving the company in a net cash position of US$541m. Divided rose 13% and share buyback target for FY26 was doubled.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast by 3% and FY27 by 5%. Outperform. Target rises to $48.50 from $45.90.

Target price is $48.60 Current Price is $42.92 Difference: $5.68
If RMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.57, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RMD as Accumulate (2) -

ResMed delivered a strong beat for 4Q25 EPS (adjusted), coming in above consensus by 23%, according to Morgans, while revenue was above expectations by 10%.

Residential care software was singled out by the analyst as the standout, as sales advanced 10%, some 9% above consensus, with positive forex and good cost control assisting the operating profit margin to 35.3%, up 260bps and 94bps on the prior quarter.

Sleep and respiratory sales for America and the rest of the world were described as "solid," with America outperforming.

Morgans raises its EPS forecast by 6.5% for FY26–FY27 on higher gross profit margin assumptions and an expected lower share count.

Accumulate rating retained. Target price is lifted to $47.86 from $44.07.

Target price is $47.86 Current Price is $42.92 Difference: $4.94
If RMD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.57, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie explains Suncorp Group has repriced ahead of claims inflation in 2H25, but margin pressure in Personal Motor now appears to be emerging and is expected to offset ongoing improvement in Home.

With underlying margins having likely peaked, the broker maintains a cautious view on the sector and retains a Neutral rating on Suncorp.

The $19.60 target is maintained.

Target price is $19.60 Current Price is $20.58 Difference: minus $0.98 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.43, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates THL as Buy (1) -

Tourism Holdings Rentals responded to the NZ$2.30/share takeover offer from BGH, saying a bid higher than NZ$3.00 will be needed or it will be rejected.

The company reiterated its goal for NZ$100m net profit but pushed back the timing to FY29 from FY26 guided in February 2024. Ord Minnett notes the assumptions underpinning this look reasonable but it will review them after the FY25 results.

The company is exploring divestment options on UK and Ireland vehicles which makes sense to the broker.

EPS forecast for FY25 lifted by 7% and by 1% in FY26-27.

Buy. Target rises to NZ$2.78 from NZ$2.61.

Current Price is $1.86. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TPW as Overweight (1) -

With the Temple & Webster share price up 85% year-to-date, Morgan Stanley expects the market to concentrate on FY25 revenue growth at the upcoming August 14 earnings report, as well as operating leverage, FY26 margin guidance, and how trading has commenced in FY26.

If the company reports weaker sales and higher reinvestment, the shares are likely to trade lower, while an inline result and ongoing reinvestment for top-line growth would likely produce a flat market price reaction.

The third possible outcome is a beat on sales growth and home improvement contribution, with an upgrade in FY26 revenue guidance, which should see the share price trading higher.

The analyst believes the second option is most likely, of sales growth around 20%-plus and ongoing reinvestment.

The Overweight rating and $28 target are maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $24.60 Difference: $3.4
If TPW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.70, suggesting downside of -17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WTC as Buy (1) -

WiseTech Global has completed the e2open acquisition, two months earlier than Bell Potter's assumption which was based on the company's indicative timeline.

The result triggers a revision to the broker's FY26 forecast which now factors in 11 months of contribution versus 9 months before. FY26 revenue forecast lifted by 7%, EBITDA by 5% and EPS by 4%.

No changes to FY27 forecasts. Target price unchanged at $135 as the broker also slightly lowered the multiples applied in the valuation modeling. 

Buy retained.

Target price is $135.00 Current Price is $114.31 Difference: $20.69
If WTC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Buy (1) -

Global transport and logistics company DSV plans to continue operating recent takeover target DB Schenker’s Tango system alongside WiseTech Global's CargoWise for an extended period, observes Citi.

The broker points out this will delay any potential volume uplift for WiseTech Global from DB Schenker’s integration until FY27.

The analysts maintain their base case that DSV remains on CargoWise but acknowledges risk of churn from the dual-platform structure.

Offsetting factors, according to Citi, include new product rollouts, a revised commercial model and the integration of e2open.

Freight industry commentary from DSV and Kuehne & Nagel points to subdued volume trends and tariff-related uncertainty, so Citi assumes flat industry volume growth for 1H26.

Buy. Target unchanged at $127.40.

Target price is $127.40 Current Price is $114.31 Difference: $13.09
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources