Australian Broker Call

Deutsche Bank rates ALQ as Hold (3) -

European oil & gas services company Bureau Veritas has posted a disappointing Sep Q result, in line with the broker's expectation. The broker also expects ALS' oil & gas division to have had a weak quarter, so no surprises there.

ALS' metals & minerals division is nevertheless expected to have had a strong quarter. Hold and $5.02 target retained.

Target price is $5.02 Current Price is $6.10 Difference: minus $1.08 (current price is over target).
If ALQ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.22, suggesting downside of -17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALQ as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans assesses that the leading indicators on exploration spending and capital raising by juniors imply the outlook for the mineral business should materially improve in FY18-19.

There are a number of catalysts expected over the coming months including potential acquisitions in the life sciences division. The company will also report its first half result in November and the broker hopes for more clarity around the longevity of the energy division.

Morgans upgrades to Add from Hold. Target is raised to $7.05 from $5.32.

Target price is $7.05 Current Price is $6.10 Difference: $0.95
If ALQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.22, suggesting downside of -17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ANN as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse reviews activity trends for a number of the major drivers for Ansell. While the current valuation appears undemanding, organic growth remains subdued in key regions and this underpins the broker's Neutral rating.

Incorporating updated house currency assumptions as well as minor adjustments to input price assumptions results in an average downgrade of around 2% to earnings per share forecasts. Target is steady at $21.65.

Target price is $21.65 Current Price is $23.08 Difference: minus $1.43 (current price is over target).
If ANN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.69, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Sell (5) -

September quarter production was weaker than Citi expected, except for petroleum. Higher bulk commodity prices have driven the share price higher but the broker expects prices to pull back significantly later this year and into 2017.

The broker suspects the company can catch up some of the lost production in FY17 at Olympic Dam where the South Australian power outage is suspected of having a significant impact on the smelter operations.

Sell retained. Target is steady at $20.

Note: on Citi's projections, BHP will be enjoying a big boost to profits in FY17, but yet another drop off in momentum in FY18 when current estimates for both EPS and DPS are significantly lower than estimates for the current year.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $22.47 Difference: minus $2.47 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.57, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

First quarter production fell short of Credit Suisse's expectations in copper, oil and thermal coal. Copper grades fell at both Escondida and Olympic Dam. Iron ore production was better than expected.

The broker retains an Outperform rating and $24.00 target.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $22.47 Difference: $1.53
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.57, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates BHP as Hold (3) -

BHP's Sep Q production report was net disappointing. Iron ore and Gulf oil beat the broker's forecasts but copper fell short on a weak start to the year at Escondida and Olympic Dam.

BHP has maintained full-year copper production guidance but will have to come home with solid numbers to meet the target, the broker notes. Earning forecasts trimmed. Hold and a $22 target retained.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $22.47 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.57, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

September quarter production was generally weaker than Macquarie expected. No change to production guidance is made and the broker's forecasts are now slightly below guidance and at the bottom end of the range for copper, energy coal and iron ore in FY17.

That said, the upside risk to base case forecasts for BHP using spot prices is significant and the broker acknowledges the likelihood of further upgrades to consensus forecasts to reflect spot prices should maintain positive momentum for the stock. Outperform and $25 target retained.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $22.47 Difference: $2.53
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.57, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

First quarter production was in line with Morgan Stanley's forecasts, or ahead in the case of iron ore, petroleum and coal.

FY17 guidance is unchanged but the broker expects a 15-20,000 tonne reduction in copper because of the power outage at Olympic Dam.

The broker retains an Overweight rating and Attractive industry view. Target is $27.50.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $22.47 Difference: $5.03
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.57, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Add (1) -

September quarter results were reasonable, in Morgans view. The damage at Olympic Dam caused by the recent power outage is still being assessed and guidance is under review. Morgans reduces FY17 forecasts.

Morgans increases coal price forecasts which results in a further increase in FY17 EBIT forecasts for the coal business. Add rating retained. Target lifts to $25.54 from $25.30.

Target price is $25.54 Current Price is $22.47 Difference: $3.07
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.57, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -

First quarter production was generally soft in Ord Minnett's opinion. Olympic Dam guidance is under review after the power outage but the broker also notes that guidance at Escondida of 1.07mt appears to be a stretch after copper grades dropped to the lowest levels since mining began.

Lower FY17 copper output expectations are more than offset by an increase in the broker's coal price realisations from an earnings perspective. The stockbroker maintains a relative preference for Rio Tinto (RIO) in the sector.

Hold rating and $21 target maintained.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $22.47 Difference: minus $1.47 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.57, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

BHP's quarterly production report was a mix of beats and misses, with copper production in particular delivering a notable surprise to the downside. With management indicating the momentum this year is very much skewed to H2, UBS analysts point out it is their expectation bulk commodities will be priced at lower levels by then.

All major copper assets produced below UBS' estimates and the analysts do not see imminent improvement on the horizon. Neutral. Target $23.50 (at a discount to NPV of $25.98). Estimates are under review.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $22.47 Difference: $1.03
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.57, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGF as Outperform (1) -

Normalised cash operating earnings guidance for the lifetime business is unchanged at $620-640m. Macquarie increases forecasts for earnings per share in FY17 by 0.5% and by 1.3% for FY18.

Outperform rating retained Target rises to $11.84 from $10.34 to reflect a move to a 2.0% terminal growth rate from 2025 from nil, partially offset by a 50 basis point increase in weighted average cost of capital to 9.5%.

Target price is $11.84 Current Price is $10.38 Difference: $1.46
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.02, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CHC as Underperform (5) -

Charter Hall has called off its IPO of the Long WALE REIT and as a result Credit Suisse raises questions regarding the longevity of the $1.0bn in funds under management that were to be transferred to the new vehicle.

The warehousing of the assets is envisaged limiting the company's balance sheet flexibility. Underperform retained. Target is steady at $4.60.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If CHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.21, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHC as Outperform (1) -

Institutional demand for the IPO of the company's Long WALE REIT was not enough to create an orderly market. Charter Hall will not proceed with the listing as scheduled.

Charter Hall will consider alternative options for the assets within the proposed Long WALE REIT portfolio.

The outcome is disappointing but Macquarie likes the growth profile of the stock even without the listing of CLW and retains an Outperform rating and $5.68 target.

Target price is $5.68 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: $0.8
If CHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.21, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates CIM as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Cimic has reported a much improved set of Sep Q numbers, Deustche Bank notes, featuring 10% profit growth, strong cash flow and an increase in net cash. The broker remains cautious over lingering receivables issues and the ever present risks surrounding future mega-contracts.

But Cimic's current trading price appropriately reflects those risks, Deutsche believes. Target rises to $25.76 from $23.20. Upgrade to Hold.

Target price is $25.76 Current Price is $28.40 Difference: minus $2.64 (current price is over target).
If CIM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.29, suggesting downside of -34.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIM as No Rating (-1) -

Cimic's September quarter cash flow was strong while margins were softer than Macquarie expected. The company has pointed out it has a robust project pipeline and more than $70bn in projects relevant to the company are coming to market in 2017.

The broker remains under research restriction for the stock.

Current Price is $28.40. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $19.29, suggesting downside of -34.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates ECX as Buy (1) -

Ahead of the Eclipx FY16 result the broker has increased its target to $4.50 from $4.15. The increase takes into account the growing prominence of Telematics and the acquisition of Right2Drive.

Both contribute to diversification in company's core Fleet and Consumer Finance businesses, the broker suggests. Buy retained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $0.46
If ECX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.98, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FDV as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -

Frontier Digital Ventures invests in online advertising, typically real estate, automotive or general classifieds, in developing economies.

Morgans notes the 20 countries in which the company operates had a combined aggregated 651m in mobile phone subscribers and 224m in fixed-line internet connections in 2015.

The broker expects high double-digit growth in online advertising revenues in most of the market in which the company participates. Morgans initiates coverage with a 60c target and Add rating.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.1
If FDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IDR as Resume coverage with Neutral rating (3) -

Macquarie resumes coverage with a Neutral rating and $2.05 target. The company acquired the WesTrac facility in Newcastle on September 1 on a 7.25% cap rate with an 18-year weighted average lease expiry.

The cost was $170.4m and the rationale was primarily about diversification. Macquarie believes there is still room for further acquisitions as pro forma gearing of 35% is at the mid point of the company's 30-40% target.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If IDR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates IPL as Buy (1) -

The broker sees the handover of the Louisiana ammonia plant as a positive, despite a soft ammonia market and a slightly delayed start-up.

Buy and $4.10 target retained for Incitec.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $1.29
If IPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPL as Hold (3) -

The Louisiana ammonia project has achieved beneficial production and Morgans expects free cash flow should now increase materially.

However, further weakness in the ammonia price and strength in the gas price are expected to reduce the plant's returns relative to prior expectations.

Morgans reduces forecasts on the back of an elevated Australian dollar and weakness in fertiliser prices. Hold rating is maintained. Target drops to $2.85 from $3.05.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $0.04
If IPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MHJ as Underperform (5) -

A new analyst assumes coverage of the stock for Credit Suisse with an Underperform rating and NZ$1.56 target. Since moving the primary listing to Australia the broker notes the stock has gained 52% and now trades at, or near, peak valuation multiples.

The broker does not believe the share price reflects the risks associated with rolling out new stores in Canada or with the new Emma & Roe format.

Limited new store growth is expected in Australasia and revenue growth and margin expansion are expected to be broadly offset by ongoing capex requirements.

Current Price is $1.67. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

More bark than bite. That's essentially the conclusion drawn by UBS analysts post the first (baby) steps taken by the Turnbull government to reform private health insurance in Australia.

UBS analysts see minimal impact only in the twelve months ahead. Neutral. Target $2.70 (unchanged).

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.13
If MPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.73, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Origin Energy has reiterated FY17 guidance for energy markets and integrated gas at its AGM. Macquarie believes the re-statement of guidance for the energy markets highlights a favourable operating environment in electricity.

The company has also established an oil hedge for 15m bbls at a US$45/bbl floor price, which the broker believes provides some clarity to the outlook but continues to highlight the fact the company's debt position is not sustainable and needs to be reduced in FY18.

Outperform and $5.83 target maintained.

Target price is $5.83 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: $0.21
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.09, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PLG as Accumulate (2) -

The company has made solid progress on the leasing front, Ord Minnett observes. The new lease at Clayton is for 15 years and secures around 4.5% of earnings form December 2016.

Propertylink's lease expiry levels also reduce over the next three years, to 38% from 47%. Accumulate rating and 95c target retained.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.17
If PLG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SBM as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse observes September quarter production was solid with Gwalia grades higher than planned and productivity gains continuing at Simberi.

Strong cash flow continues. Upcoming catalysts include the Simberi strategic review and the sulphide pre-feasibility study. The broker's Neutral rating is retained. Target is $2.90.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.22
If SBM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.17, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SBM as Hold (3) -

St Barbara's official Sep Q production report confirms a solid result from Gwalia thanks to strong grades. Improved cash flow means the company's net debt is now just $18m, compared to $311m only two years ago, the broker notes.

Renewed balance sheet flexibility opens up options for M&A and/or capital management, says the broker. Hold and $2.90 target retained.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.22
If SBM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.17, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as Outperform (1) -

Production was strong in the September quarter and broadly within Macquarie's forecasts. While the gold price has helped the broker notes a key driver of the result was the sequential improvement in operating performance.

The broker expects the improvements to continue. Estimates are largely unchanged. Outperform maintained. Target is $3.70.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $1.02
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.17, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SOM as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans observes a seasonally weak North American summer has been offset by strong growth in unit sales and revenue across the business in the September quarter.

While maintaining a positive stance on the stock for the medium to longer term the broker believes the strong share price performance in recent months along with start-up costs associated with the SCA roll out will weigh in the short term.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Add. The target price rises to $4.11 from $3.84.

Target price is $4.11 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.13
If SOM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TAH as Outperform (1) -

Tabcorp plans to acquire Tatts ((TTS)) for $4.34 a share, comprising 0.8 Tabcorp shares and 42.5c cash per share. The franking on the 20c special dividend will provide an additional 2.5% to Tatts shareholders.

Macquarie estimates, based on Tabcorp's synergy target, around 10% accretion to earnings per share for Tabcorp based on FY19 earnings forecasts.

The broker notes, while there are plenty of regulatory hurdles, the company is confident and expects the deal to complete in mid 2017. Outperform retained. Target is $5.39.

Target price is $5.39 Current Price is $5.06 Difference: $0.33
If TAH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.79, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TAH as Overweight (1) -

Tabcorp plans to acquire Tatts ((TTS)) for $4.34 a share, comprising 0.8 Tabcorp shares and 42.5c cash per share. Tatts shareholders can elect to receive a 20c special dividend in lieu of part of the cash offer, with 8.6c per share in franking credits attached.

Morgan Stanley calculates this could be up to 14% accretive for Tabcorp shareholders. However, a higher-than-expected bid premium and elevated post-transaction leverage increases the importance of achieving the targeted synergies and this raises the risks. The broker observes competition concerns look manageable.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and In-Line industry view. Target is $5.00.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.06 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.79, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TAH as Neutral (3) -

Having been rejected by ACCC in the past, Tatts and Tabcorp are at it again. This time both boards seem confident the merger will achieve approval, observe analysts at UBS.

UBS does point out the WA TAB licence could come to market after the WA election in March 2017 and may be a potential issue for the ACCC. On the other hand, it cannot be denied the corporate bookmakers continue to take greater share of the total market, and UBS has the numbers to prove it.

Neutral. Target $4.49 (unchanged).

Target price is $4.49 Current Price is $5.06 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.79, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TRS as Neutral (3) -

First quarter trading suggests to Macquarie that retail conditions continue to be patchy and FY17 has started in a subdued fashion. The broker suspects the future performance will largely be down to sales and gross margins.

Macquarie remains cautious, albeit positive, given the subdued momentum ahead of the key Christmas trading period.

Neutral retained. Target falls to $10.50 from $12.80.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.80 Difference: $1.7
If TRS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.07, suggesting upside of 56.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TRS as Buy (1) -

AGM update revealed much lower growth than expected, with Western Australia going backwards, and UBS analysts talk about a "concerning" update. They have reduced estimates and lowered the price target to $12.90 from $14.40.

UBS analysts see clouds in the sky short term, but they have not given up on expectation of better times emerging beyond H1. A stronger operational performance would feed into higher confidence, the analysts admit. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $12.90 Current Price is $8.80 Difference: $4.1
If TRS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.07, suggesting upside of 56.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TTS as Equal-weight (3) -

Tabcorp ((TAH)) plans to acquire Tatts for $4.34 a share, comprising 0.8 Tabcorp shares and 42.5c cash per share. Tatts shareholders can elect to receive a 20c special dividend in lieu of part of the cash offer, with 8.6c per share in franking credits attached.

Morgan Stanley calculates the transaction could be up to 14% accretive for Tabcorp shareholders. However, a higher-than-expected bid premium and elevated post-transaction leverage increases the importance of achieving the targeted synergies and this raises the risks. The broker observes competition concerns look manageable.

Equal-weight rating and In-Line Industry view are retained. Target is $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $4.16 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If TTS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TTS as Neutral (3) -

Having been rejected by ACCC in the past, Tatts and Tabcorp are at it again. This time both boards seem confident the merger will achieve approval, observe analysts at UBS.

UBS does point out the WA TAB licence could come to market after the WA election in March 2017 and may be a potential issue for the ACCC. On the other hand, it cannot be denied the corporate bookmakers continue to take greater share of the total market, and UBS has the numbers to prove it.

Neutral. Rating moves to $4.12 from $3.82.

Target price is $4.12 Current Price is $4.16 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If TTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WSA as Sell (5) -

September quarter nickel production was 9% below the prior quarter because of a drop in milled grade. Production beat Citi's estimates in terms of tonnage and operating expenditure and revised assumptions lift earnings estimates from a low base for FY17-19.

The broker notes the company has done all that is possible to maintain profitability in the face of a weak nickel market by increasing tonnage but reducing development capex. Nickel prices are expected to decline into 2017.

Citi maintains a Sell rating. Target rises to $1.83 from $1.81.

Target price is $1.83 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: minus $0.84 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WSA as Outperform (1) -

September quarter production numbers suggest to Credit Suisse the company's focus on cash is paying off.

The broker believes the nickel price outlook is improving on the back of stainless steel and ore supply restrictions. China's nickel shortfall is forecast to be over 500,000t in 2016 and over 600,000t in 2017.

The broker maintains the Outperform rating and $3 target.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.33
If WSA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates WSA as Sell (5) -

Western Areas' Sep Q nickel production exceeded guidance but met the broker's expectation. By targeting lower grade ore in the weak nickel price environment, costs have increased, the broker notes.

But this preserves higher grade ore for when (or if) prices improve. Nickel demand is rising but supply remains significant, the broker notes. Target rises to $2.30 from $2.20. Sell retained.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WSA as Neutral (3) -

First quarter production volumes were better than Macquarie's forecasts. Mined nickel was 7% above estimates. yet lower sales and selling all production to Nickel West resulted in an unfavourable move in working capital.

Macquarie reduces FY17 earnings per share estimates by 25% to reflect weaker shipments and slightly higher costs. Neutral retained. Factoring in the upgraded resource for New Morning lifts the target to $2.60 from $2.50.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WSA as Lighten (4) -

September quarter sales and costs were weaker than Ord Minnett expected. While the company is well positioned on the cost curve the broker suspects shareholder returns over the next three years will be modest because of weak nickel prices.

The net impact of Filipino mine closures remains a key catalyst. Lighten rating retained along with the $2.00 target.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: minus $0.67 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WSA as Sell (5) -

Production in the September quarter was better than UBS' estimate. The analysts expect mildly lower production in FY17, as flagged by company management earlier.

UBS analysts observe balance sheet concerns have been alleviated. Yet, they retain the Sell rating as UBS forecasts already include nickel prices lifting to US$5.50/lb and US$6.25/lb in CY17 and CY18 respectively.

The analysts believe the current share price is pricing in nickel priced at US$7.76/lb, though they do acknowledge were nickel prices to rally higher in the short term, the share price is likely to follow suit. Target lifts to $2.03 from $1.88. No changes to forecasts.

Target price is $2.03 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: minus $0.64 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources