Australian Broker Call
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April 03, 2023
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
LYC - | Lynas Rare Earths | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Bell Potter |
Overnight Price: $2.60
Ord Minnett rates ABP as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett expects falls in commercial property prices, given the overseas banking collapses, high vacancy rates in some office assets and high interest rates.
Still, the downside appears priced into listed markets as most Australian REITs are trading below net tangible assets and at discounts to valuation.
Abacus Property has a portfolio that is fairly evenly split between storage, which is experiencing strong conditions, and office, which has headwinds.
The broker considers fears are overdone and retains an Accumulate rating and $3.30 target.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.7
If ABP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 20.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of -68.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.80 cents and EPS of 19.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of -2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.36
Bell Potter rates BOE as Buy (1) -
Bell Potter believes Boss Energy offers value upside as it prepares to restart production at its Honeymoon project in the December quarter. The stock represents an opportunity with a project that is currently re-starting in a tier1 jurisdiction.
The broker believes the uranium market fundamentals are strong, with continued tightening of available supply supporting long-term contract pricing.
Near-term supply appears to be largely taken up following the Cameco deal with Ukrainian energy utility, Energoatom. Bell Potter retains a Speculative Buy rating and lowers the target to $3.42 from $3.51.
Target price is $3.42 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $1.06
If BOE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates BWP as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett expects falls in commercial property prices, given the overseas banking collapses, high vacancy rates in some office assets and high interest rates.
Still, the downside appears priced into listed markets as most Australian REITs are trading below net tangible assets and at discounts to valuation. This is in contrast to overseas portfolios which had worsening fundamentals.
BWP Trust has a defensive rental income stream, although rents may be affected by the vacating of some older premises by Bunnings. Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and $3.60 target.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.63, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of -76.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of 2.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $11.00
Ord Minnett rates CHC as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett expects falls in commercial property prices, given the overseas banking collapses, high vacancy rates in some office assets and high interest rates.
Still, the downside appears priced into listed markets as most Australian REITs are trading below net tangible assets and at discounts to valuation. This is in contrast to overseas portfolios which had worsening fundamentals.
After the recent sell-off, Charter Hall provides good value in the broker's view, with a strong track record. Buy rating and $16.20 target maintained.
Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $11.00 Difference: $5.2
If CHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.77, suggesting upside of 30.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.50 cents and EPS of 97.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.2, implying annual growth of -51.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 44.20 cents and EPS of 100.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.9, implying annual growth of -5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.00
Ord Minnett rates CIP as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett expects falls in commercial property prices, given the overseas banking collapses, high vacancy rates in some office assets and high interest rates.
Still, the downside appears priced into listed markets as most Australian REITs are trading below net tangible assets and at discounts to valuation. This is in contrast to overseas portfolios which had worsening fundamentals.
With a sole focus on industrial property, Centuria Industrial REIT has structural tailwinds from growth in e-commerce and onshoring of supply chains. Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating with a $3 target.
Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0
If CIP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.40, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of -71.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.90 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of -0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CMW CROMWELL PROPERTY GROUP
Infra & Property Developers
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Overnight Price: $0.56
Ord Minnett rates CMW as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett expects falls in commercial property prices, given the overseas banking collapses, high vacancy rates in some office assets and high interest rates.
Still, the downside appears priced into listed markets as most Australian REITs are trading below net tangible assets and at discounts to valuation. This is in contrast to overseas portfolios which had worsening fundamentals.
Ord Minnett reaffirms its view on Cromwell Property, retaining an Accumulate rating with a $0.90 target.
Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.345
If CMW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 5.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.60 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.94
Macquarie rates CTM as Outperform (1) -
Centaurus Metals reported 2022 losses of -US$42.6m for a pre-production year. This was well ahead of Macquarie's expectations because of higher exploration expenses.
The upcoming catalysts include the definitive feasibility study at Jaguar, for which the delivery date has been pushed out, along with a maiden reserve, to the fourth quarter of 2023. The DFS is expected to materially increase the mine life at Jaguar to over 20 years.
Outperform rating and $1.60 target price retained.
Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: $0.66
If CTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.60 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates DXS as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett expects falls in commercial property prices, given the overseas banking collapses, high vacancy rates in some office assets and high interest rates.
Still, the downside appears priced into listed markets as most Australian REITs are trading below net tangible assets and at discounts to valuation. This is in contrast to overseas portfolios which had worsening fundamentals.
After the recent sell-off, the broker envisages value in quality stocks with medium-risk profiles such as Dexus and retains an Accumulate rating and $10.80 target.
Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $7.51 Difference: $3.29
If DXS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.39, suggesting upside of 22.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 63.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.0, implying annual growth of -57.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 51.30 cents and EPS of 65.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.6, implying annual growth of -0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.21
Macquarie rates GEM as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie points out a major staff shortage has been an obstacle for G8 Education over the past 18 months. Migration is still lagging the pre-pandemic levels and qualified staff are preferring other areas of education or avenues of employment.
The broker highlights low staffing limits an operator's ability to meet the required educator:child ratios and thus its ability to maximise occupancy. Higher wages are also required to attract and/or retain labour.
The broker is cautious about the stock and the company's ability to return to pre-pandemic occupancy, noting small improvements in migration recently are only providing modest relief. Neutral rating and $1.12 target maintained.
Target price is $1.12 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If GEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.60 cents and EPS of 8.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $18.79
Ord Minnett rates GMG as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett expects falls in commercial property prices, given the overseas banking collapses, high vacancy rates in some office assets and high interest rates.
Still, the downside appears priced into listed markets as most Australian REITs are trading below net tangible assets and at discounts to valuation. This is in contrast to overseas portfolios which had worsening fundamentals.
The broker believes current developments should be lucrative for Goodman Group although future developments are likely to have tighter margins. Performance fees are expected to eventually slow. Hold rating maintained. Target is steady at $18.60.
Target price is $18.60 Current Price is $18.79 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $21.88, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 92.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.9, implying annual growth of -48.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 100.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 101.6, implying annual growth of 8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.70
UBS rates GOR as Buy (1) -
It appears from the UBS gold conference Gold Road Resources is still covered, with a Buy rating and $2 target.
Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.3
If GOR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of 74.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.8, implying annual growth of -4.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GOZ GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES AUSTRALIA
Infra & Property Developers
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Overnight Price: $3.04
Ord Minnett rates GOZ as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett expects falls in commercial property prices, given the overseas banking collapses, high vacancy rates in some office assets and high interest rates.
Still, the downside appears priced into listed markets as most Australian REITs are trading below net tangible assets and at discounts to valuation. This is in contrast to overseas portfolios which had worsening fundamentals.
The broker notes Growthpoint Properties Australia is focused on small properties in secondary locations, aiming to reduce investment risks by securing tenants on leases with fixed or CPI uplifts and retains an Accumulate rating and $4.05 target.
Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $1.01
If GOZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.40 cents and EPS of 24.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.80 cents and EPS of 27.60 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.24
Ord Minnett rates GPT as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett expects falls in commercial property prices, given the overseas banking collapses, high vacancy rates in some office assets and high interest rates.
Still, the downside appears priced into listed markets as most Australian REITs are trading below net tangible assets and at discounts to valuation. This is in contrast to overseas portfolios which had worsening fundamentals.
After the recent sell-off, the broker envisages value in some quality stocks with medium-risk profiles such as GPT Group and retains an Accumulate rating and $5.40 target.
Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.24 Difference: $1.16
If GPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.08, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 31.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of 27.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.60 cents and EPS of 32.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HPI HOTEL PROPERTY INVESTMENTS LIMITED
Infra & Property Developers
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Overnight Price: $3.40
Ord Minnett rates HPI as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett expects falls in commercial property prices, given the overseas banking collapses, high vacancy rates in some office assets and high interest rates.
Still, the downside appears priced into listed markets as most Australian REITs are trading below net tangible assets and at discounts to valuation. This is in contrast to overseas portfolios which had worsening fundamentals.
Hotel Property Investments has a portfolio of pubs primarily in Queensland and benefits from population growth and restrictive liquor licensing laws in Queensland. The main risk is the potential for liquor and gambling laws to change, making pub licences less valuable. Hold maintained. Target is $3.30.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If HPI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.40 cents and EPS of 20.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.40 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.14
Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -
Ahead of management expectations, Karoon Energy brought online PAT-1, the second production well at Patola, which again outpaced expectations with initial oil production of circa 12kbopd, explains Morgans.
The company is now guiding for initial stable production of 10-15kbopd, up from 10kbopd.
The analyst points to a current unsustainable discount in Karoon Energy shares and notes management is executing on unlocking value from Bauna and building itself into a formidable energy player.
The Add rating is maintained and the target rises to $3.80 from $3.60. The broker also are more welcoming investment climate after Brazil announced new incentives to encourage oil and gas investment/supply.
Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: $1.66
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting upside of 31.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 55.47 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 84.66 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.1, implying annual growth of 11.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.23
Ord Minnett rates LLC as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett expects falls in commercial property prices, given the overseas banking collapses, high vacancy rates in some office assets and high interest rates.
Still, the downside appears priced into listed markets as most Australian REITs are trading below net tangible assets and at discounts to valuation. This is in contrast to overseas portfolios which had worsening fundamentals.
Ord Minnett observes Lendlease Group is in a transformation phase, concentrating on the urbanisation segment and increasing its weighting outside Australia. The broker considers this a "good move", although projects that play out over decades have risks that lead to greater uncertainty. Buy rating and $14.45 target maintained.
Target price is $14.45 Current Price is $7.23 Difference: $7.22
If LLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.76, suggesting upside of 48.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.60 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.10 cents and EPS of 72.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.6, implying annual growth of 86.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.07
Macquarie rates LM8 as Outperform (1) -
The Warren resource has grown 81% and Lunnon Metals is now flagging the potential for a pre-feasibility study at Foster for over 57,000t of nickel metal in a resource that is accessible to existing infrastructure.
Macquarie observes there is a busy year ahead for the business, with multiple updates expected, including the declaration of a maiden reserve at Baker in the fourth quarter of FY23. Outperform rating and $1.30 target maintained.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $0.23
If LM8 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LYC LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED
Rare Earth Minerals
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Overnight Price: $6.34
Bell Potter rates LYC as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -
Despite the near-term earnings risk because of the commissioning of Kalgoorlie as a replacement for Malaysia, along with a weaker commodity price, Bell Potter believes the sell-off in Lynas Rare Earths is overdone.
Fundamentally, the business is the leader in the rare earths segment and has a sound balance sheet with multiple pathways for growth, the broker asserts.
This is underpinned by what is arguably the best rare-earth deposit at Mount Weld. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target is reduced to $8.06 from $8.15.
Target price is $8.06 Current Price is $6.34 Difference: $1.72
If LYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.75, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 40.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.0, implying annual growth of -34.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 38.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.6, implying annual growth of 4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.08
Ord Minnett rates MGR as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett expects falls in commercial property prices, given the overseas banking collapses, high vacancy rates in some office assets and high interest rates.
Still, the downside appears priced into listed markets as most Australian REITs are trading below net tangible assets and at discounts to valuation. This is in contrast to overseas portfolios which had worsening fundamentals.
After the recent sell-off, the broker envisages value in some quality stocks with medium-risk profiles such as Mirvac Group and maintains a Buy rating with a $3.10 target.
Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $1.02
If MGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 13.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.8, implying annual growth of -35.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 13.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of -2.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.51
Ord Minnett rates NSR as Lighten (4) -
Ord Minnett expects falls in commercial property prices, given the overseas banking collapses, high vacancy rates in some office assets and high interest rates.
Still, the downside appears priced into listed markets as most Australian REITs are trading below net tangible assets and at discounts to valuation. This is in contrast to overseas portfolios which had worsening fundamentals.
The broker observes National Storage REIT had an expansion strategy that worked when property valuations were lower and occupancy was suppressed amid a fragmented market. Hence, it is likely to be tougher going forward.
Future revenue gains are likely to depend more on rate increases, which could be constrained by low income growth for consumers and the company's ability to acquire under-utilised sites. With this view, Ord Minnett retains a Lighten rating and $2.20 target.
Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If NSR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.60 cents and EPS of 11.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of -77.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 11.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of -2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NST NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED
Gold & Silver
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Overnight Price: $12.31
Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -
Northern Star Resources has priced US$600m in senior guaranteed notes, due April 2033 and attracting an interest rate of 6.125% per annum. Proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes.
Incorporating the issue means Macquarie slightly lifts assumed interest charges, which in turn means earnings per share estimates are reduced by -2-3% for FY24-27.
The broker does not incorporate the expansion at KCGM into its outlook, which along with gold and FX present the key risks to the base case. Outperform maintained. Target is $14.30.
Target price is $14.30 Current Price is $12.31 Difference: $1.99
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.68, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.80 cents and EPS of 35.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.9, implying annual growth of -5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 33.20 cents and EPS of 44.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.6, implying annual growth of 50.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
OCC ORTHOCELL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $0.38
Bell Potter rates OCC as Speculative Buy (1) -
Orthocell has appointed two internationally recognised US orthopaedic surgeons specialising in nerve transfer and peripheral nerve repair to its advisory board.
In Bell Potter's view, this positions the business to spearhead its collagen-based nerve repair device, Remplir, into the US market. A clinical trial is still required for FDA approval, although it is now approved for use in Australia.
While the broker considers the announcement of the appointments very positive, this has no impact on valuation and a Speculative Buy rating and $0.55 target are maintained.
Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.175
If OCC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.80
Bell Potter rates PSI as Buy (1) -
PSC Insurance has noted another delay in the establishing of the Tysers Retail joint venture with AUB Group ((AUB)). This is now expected to take effect from May 1, having previously been expected on April 1.
Bell Potter is not surprised by the announcement, although no reason for the additional delay was provided, and it has limited effect on forecasts, which are unchanged for FY24 and FY25. Buy rating and $6.23 target maintained.
Target price is $6.23 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $1.43
If PSI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 21.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.7, implying annual growth of 169.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 23.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.8, implying annual growth of 198.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates RGN as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett expects falls in commercial property prices, given the overseas banking collapses, high vacancy rates in some office assets and high interest rates.
Still, the downside appears priced into listed markets as most Australian REITs are trading below net tangible assets and at discounts to valuation. This is in contrast to overseas portfolios which had worsening fundamentals.
The broker notes Region Group has "reasonable" certainty on earnings, as half of gross rent comes from anchor tenants such as supermarkets with long leases.
Upside could come from economic recovery and the resulting reset of legacy specialty leases to prevailing market rates. The broker reaffirms its Hold rating and $2.55 target.
Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.2
If RGN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.75, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.10 cents and EPS of 16.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of -62.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.30 cents and EPS of 16.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates SCG as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett expects falls in commercial property prices, given the overseas banking collapses, high vacancy rates in some office assets and high interest rates.
Still, the downside appears priced into listed markets as most Australian REITs are trading below net tangible assets and at discounts to valuation. This is in contrast to overseas portfolios which had worsening fundamentals.
After a strong bounce in earnings in 2022, Ord Minnett expects lower income growth for Scentre Group versus historical measures because of online competition. Accumulate rating and $3.30 target maintained.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: $0.55
If SCG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of 253.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $23.92
Morgan Stanley rates SEK as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley believes Seek has reached a point of inflection in its Asian earnings after expenditure of $180m to improve its technical underpinnings, with growth rates surprising to the upside.
The broker asserts the market is underestimating the turnaround and forecasts EBITDA to rise to $170m in FY26, from $90m in FY23, with a return to margins of around 50%.
Overweight rating. Target is $30. Industry View: Attractive.
Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $23.92 Difference: $6.08
If SEK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.38, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 71.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.3, implying annual growth of 152.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 79.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.1, implying annual growth of -35.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.98
Ord Minnett rates SGP as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett expects falls in commercial property prices, given the overseas banking collapses, high vacancy rates in some office assets and high interest rates.
Still, the downside appears priced into listed markets as most Australian REITs are trading below net tangible assets and at discounts to valuation. This is in contrast to overseas portfolios which had worsening fundamentals.
Stockland's residential division typically has garnered more attention from the investment community, the broker contends, despite contributing a minority of earnings. That said, Ord Minnett believes Stockland can gain market share from smaller rivals that exit during tough times.
Nevertheless, a return to the "heady" sales volumes and margins achieved in residential in the past decade are not expected. Accumulate rating and $4.35 target maintained.
Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.37
If SGP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.50 cents and EPS of 29.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of -44.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.70 cents and EPS of 29.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of -3.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.00
Ord Minnett rates URW as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett expects falls in commercial property prices, given the overseas banking collapses, high vacancy rates in some office assets and high interest rates.
Still, the downside appears priced into listed markets as most Australian REITs are trading below net tangible assets and at discounts to valuation. This is in contrast to overseas portfolios which had worsening fundamentals.
The broker observes Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield has improved prospects post the pandemic although inflation and high interest rates are a risk for its asset disposal and deleveraging plans. Buy rating and $7.35 target retained.
Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: $3.35
If URW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 119.17 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 63.84 cents and EPS of 91.05 cents. |
This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.95
Ord Minnett rates VCX as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett expects falls in commercial property prices, given the overseas banking collapses, high vacancy rates in some office assets and high interest rates.
Still, the downside appears priced into listed markets as most Australian REITs are trading below net tangible assets and at discounts to valuation. This is in contrast to overseas portfolios which had worsening fundamentals.
The broker believes Vicinity Centres is poised to recover well as the economy normalises. Some assets have redevelopment potential, with the addition of apartments, hotels and offices. The broker reaffirms its Hold rating and $2.05 target.
Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.105
If VCX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.80 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of -47.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 14.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.1, implying annual growth of 0.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
BOE | Boss Energy | $2.49 | Bell Potter | 3.42 | 3.51 | -2.56% |
GOR | Gold Road Resources | $1.65 | UBS | 2.00 | N/A | - |
KAR | Karoon Energy | $2.28 | Morgans | 3.80 | 3.60 | 5.56% |
LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | $6.62 | Bell Potter | 8.06 | 8.15 | -1.10% |
Summaries
ABP | Abacus Property | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.60 |
BOE | Boss Energy | Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $2.36 |
BWP | BWP Trust | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.78 |
CHC | Charter Hall | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $11.00 |
CIP | Centuria Industrial REIT | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.00 |
CMW | Cromwell Property | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.56 |
CTM | Centaurus Metals | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.94 |
DXS | Dexus | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.51 |
GEM | G8 Education | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.21 |
GMG | Goodman Group | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $18.79 |
GOR | Gold Road Resources | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $1.70 |
GOZ | Growthpoint Properties Australia | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.04 |
GPT | GPT Group | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.24 |
HPI | Hotel Property Investments | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.40 |
KAR | Karoon Energy | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.14 |
LLC | Lendlease Group | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.23 |
LM8 | Lunnon Metals | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.07 |
LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $6.34 |
MGR | Mirvac Group | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.08 |
NSR | National Storage REIT | Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.51 |
NST | Northern Star Resources | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $12.31 |
OCC | Orthocell | Speculative Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $0.38 |
PSI | PSC Insurance | Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $4.80 |
RGN | Region Group | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.35 |
SCG | Scentre Group | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.75 |
SEK | Seek | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $23.92 |
SGP | Stockland | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.98 |
URW | Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.00 |
VCX | Vicinity Centres | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.95 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 14 |
2. Accumulate | 7 |
3. Hold | 7 |
4. Reduce | 1 |
Monday 03 April 2023
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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