Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates 29M as Outperform (1) -

29Metals reported net profit that was -24% below Macquarie's estimates, primarily because of higher depreciation at Capricorn. Operating cash flow of $59m was underpinned by the treatment of proceeds from the insurance claim.

The broker notes the company is yet to declare FID at Gossan Valley, expected during the current half. Golden Grove development capital expenditure costs are now fully funded.

Target price of 30c and Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.13
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 64.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ACL as Neutral (3) -

Australian Clinical Labs reported strong revenue growth in the first half, beating Macquarie's forecasts, although the EBIT margin was lower. This stemmed from higher consumable and property costs.

FY25 guidance has been maintained for underlying EBIT of $65-73m, with the broker pointing out the mid point requires a 50% skew to the second half for revenue and a 61% skew for EBIT.

Base pathology volumes have started to recover yet subdued GP volumes remain a near-term constraint and Macquarie awaits further recovery before becoming more positive. Neutral. Target rises to $3.15 from $2.95.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If ACL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.65, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ACL as Buy (1) -

 Australian Clinical Labs reported first half earnings that suggest it is on track to meet FY25 expectations, with guidance reiterated for EBIT of $65-73m.

Ord Minnett updates EBIT forecasts to $71m and assumes revenue growth will slow to 6.6% in the second half amid relatively flat operating expenditure.

Upside is envisaged if the share buyback activity accelerates. Buy rating retained. Target edges down to $3.80 from $3.90.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $0.53
If ACL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.65, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AEL as Outperform (1) -

Amplitude Energy posted a first half result that was ahead of Macquarie's estimates, with "adjusted" cash from operations at $81m "well ahead" and free cash flow run rate above expectations.

The stock is the broker's choice for east coast gas exposure, as supply shortfalls are predicted to occur as early as this winter.

The company has identified OG as the party negotiating with Mitsui about a purchase of the latter's 50% stake in the Otway acreage, which Macquarie welcomes.

Outperform retained. Target rises to $0.31 from $0.29.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.095
If AEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALD as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades Ampol to Buy from Neutral, expecting EBIT growth across all divisions over the next two years.

The stock trades at 8.3x 2026 EBIT, a -19% discount to its five-year average. UBS forecasts 22% EBIT CAGR from 2024–26, driven by refining recovery, improved Lytton reliability, and consumer sentiment uplift.

2024 NPAT was in line, but net debt/EBITDA spiked to 2.6x. The final dividend payout was cut to 66% of NPAT to maintain balance sheet flexibility. UBS expects leverage to normalise within target by 2025–26, enabling higher payouts.

The analyst notes Convenience Retail remains resilient, benefiting from investment in premium sites and food offerings.

UBS cuts 2025–26 EPS estimates by -1% to -6% due to higher interest costs and weaker Z Energy & Fuels & Infrastructure trading.

Target rises to $31.40 from $31.25.

Target price is $31.40 Current Price is $26.09 Difference: $5.31
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.21, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALL as Neutral (3) -

Aristocrat Leisure's AGM update signaled softer 1H25 NPATA growth, UBS notes, attributing this to lower gaming operations fee per day, down -2% year-on-year, driven by a shift toward lower-yielding Class II machines. 

The analyst remains slightly more optimistic than guidance, expecting NPATA growth of 13% in 1H25 and 10% in 2H25, citing robust global gaming revenue, successful Phoenix Link rollout, and Light & Wonder’s fee per day declining only -1% in 4Q24.

A new share buyback of up to $750m was announced, slightly above UBS’s forecast. Aristocrat remains under-geared post-Plarium sale (US$600m), potentially preserving capital for M&A in casino-adjacent markets, the broker comments.

UBS lowers FY25–27 EPS projections by -4% to -5%, respectively. Price target cut to $75.50 from $76.20, Neutral rating maintained.

Target price is $75.50 Current Price is $73.89 Difference: $1.61
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $78.07, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALX as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Atlas Arteria's 2024 EBITDA was slightly above Citi’s estimate and in line with consensus. Free cash flow was higher than forecast, helped by a $57m capital release at MAF2.

2024 DPS of 40c met guidance and consensus. FY25 DPS guidance is also set at 40c, flat year-on-year and slightly below consensus. Citi expects investors to view this positively, as some anticipated a dividend cut.

Traffic rose 0.6% in 2024, impacted by farmer strikes in France and toll-driven declines at Chicago Skyway. Toll revenue grew 5.1%, supported by APRR, up 3%, and Chicago Skyway's 9% toll hikes.

New CEO Hugh Wehby has made limited changes, adjusting DPS policy to 90–110% of free cash flow and redefining free cash flow to include capital releases. Citi expects further clarity on strategy from the upcoming investor call.

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Atlas Arteria's refinancing at Finance Eiffarie (FE) extends debt maturity by five years to February 2032, with lower near-term amortisation EUR15m in 2025, EUR40m in 2026, and EUR50m in 2027), Citi notes.

The broker views this as positive for near-term free cash flow and DPS growth, helping to offset free cash flow pressure from additional French taxes.

Citi retains a buy rating with a target price of $5.70.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.07 Difference: $0.63
If ALX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Aurelia Metals delivered first half net profit that was in line with Macquarie's estimates. The period ahead is rich in catalysts, the broker observes, with the Great Cobar study and Peak plant expansion FID expected before the end of FY25.

Additionally, there is commercial production at Federation mid year. The business has returned to profitability after an extended period of losses and the broker retains an Outperform rating with a $0.25 target.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.04
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Aurelia Metals posted results in the first half that exceeded Ord Minnett's expectations. EBITDA was up 50%, reflecting lower costs and better pricing.

The broker assesses the balance sheet, coupled with operating cash flow, should easily fund organic growth projects. The stock is considered a compelling opportunity and a Speculative A Buy rating is maintained. Target is unchanged at $0.31.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.1
If AMI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APE as Neutral (3) -

Upon first assessment, Eagers Automotive's FY24 financial result was slightly better than expected, with revenue of $11.19bn, up 14% year-on-year and 1% ahead of UBS estimate.

Adjusted PBT of $371m exceeded forecasts by 4%, while gross margins remained resilient at 17.9%. Management guided for an additional $1bn in revenue growth for 2025, with strong demand and a substantial order bank supporting new car sales.

The broker highlights the company’s ability to sustain margins in a challenging environment but notes valuation concerns at current levels.

UBS analysts have maintained a Neutral rating on Eagers Automotive, keeping the price target at $10.60.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $12.45 Difference: minus $1.85 (current price is over target).
If APE meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.96, suggesting downside of -20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ATA as Add (1) -

Atturra's 1H25 result slightly missed Morgans' expectations but the broker still considers it a solid result given the 27% y/y revenue lift amid distractions from multiple capital raises and acquisitions in the 1H.

The broker notes the company has retained FY25 underlying EBITDA guidance, highlighting the diversity of the business model allows for cost controls.

The analyst cut its forecasts towards the company's FY25 guidance range, resulting in a reduction in underlying EBITDA forecasts by -7% over the next few years. Target price cut to $1.00 from $1.15, and Add maintained.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $0.12
If ATA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ATA as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes Atturra's 1H25 result was broadly in line with pre-announced numbers, and the FY25 outlook was reiterated. 

EBITDA margin dropped below 10% to 9.6%, and while the broker understands the reasons behind them, it is keen to see some operating leverage emerging as a key catalyst for the stock.

Organic growth was low-single digit and followed a relatively low 2H24, but the broker notes it is difficult to observe given M&A.

Another catalyst for a re-rate is proprietary product offerings, and the broker sees potential from the company's three "product-type" offerings.

Target price cut to $1.2 from $1.4 on recent acquisitions, capital raising and 1H result. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $0.32
If ATA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ATG as Neutral (3) -

Upon first glance, UBS believes Articore Group’s 1H25 financial result was in line with expectations. Marketplace revenue of $230.4m is down -12% year-on-year in constant currency.

Gross profit after paid acquisition costs (GPAPA) fell -14% to $55.4m, while EBITDA declined to $3.8m from $10.0m in the prior corresponding period.

The broker observes management flagged strong gross margin trends due to marketplace synergies and better fulfiller terms, though increased paid acquisition costs weighed on overall profitability.

The broker remains cautious on Articore’s competitive environment, highlighting the need for further cost reductions to stabilise free cash flow.

UBS analysts have maintained a Neutral rating on Articore Group, keeping the price target at $0.42.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.195
If ATG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.50, suggesting upside of 108.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BAP as Resume coverage with Outperform (1) -

First half results from Bapcor were largely in line. The new CEO will provide a more comprehensive strategic update in April, which Macquarie notes could be a key catalyst that increases medium-term visibility and possibly drive a re-rating.

Cost reductions are tracking towards the top end of the -$20-30m targeted savings in FY25, weighted to the second half.

After a period of restriction, the broker resumes coverage with an Outperform rating and $5.85 target.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: $0.76
If BAP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.57, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BAP as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans observes Bapcor is making progress with its business simplification and efficiency program, with improving sequential EBITDA margin outcomes within trade business (+125bps) and specialist wholesale (+310bps). 

Sales were flat in 1H and net profit fell -15% y/y but the latter was still marginally ahead of the broker's forecast.

The broker notes improved cash flow outcome with operating cash flow of $143.7m versus $89m the year before. Free cash flow of $46.7m (-$36.7 year before) was even stronger considering the inventory build in 1H.

The analyst expects the company's optimisation efforts to see ongoing margins improving with the specialist wholesale and trade businesses, while retail and NZ businesses see flat sales growth.

Target price rises to $5.95 from $5.25, and rating upgraded to Add from Hold.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: $0.86
If BAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.57, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BAP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes strong gains from Bapcor's trade operations were offset by ongoing weakness in retail and wholesale, with a -7.2% decline in EBITDA  in the first half. Results were slightly below forecasts.

Going forward, sales for the period to February 14 increased 0.5% with trade up 3.7% and the company asserts it is on track to deliver its cost savings of -$20-30m over the full year.

Cost savings will be important to offset underlying cost inflation which remains above the rate of sales growth, the broker notes. Target is steady at $5.30 and a Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: $0.21
If BAP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.57, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCL as Buy (1) -

First half results from Cuscal were ahead of Ord Minnett's expectations with the business on track to beat IPO prospectus forecasts.

The broker assesses there is significant upside in the current valuation, as it is well below where the stock is envisaged trading in 12-18 months time.

Revenue growth was slightly ahead of expectations across both fees/commissions and net interest income. The broker increases net profit forecasts for FY25 by 2% and the target to $3.61 from $3.55. Buy rating.

Target price is $3.61 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.91
If CCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CCR as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes Credit Clear's 1H25 underlying EBITDA of $2.9m was consistent with its January announcement, and sees strong indications EBITDA margins are poised for expansion.

The broker expects the company to win new clients in the coming years but intensity to dissipate, and with it on-boarding costs. The company signalled further market share gains, including from existing clients. 

The company is in a net cash position of $10m but indicated acquisition plans are on hold.

The FY25 guidance is largely consistent with the broker's model, resulting in a -4.1% downgrade to FY25 EPS forecast and -1.5% to FY26 . Target price and Buy rating are unchanged.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.15
If CCR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CHN as Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold (1) -

Morgans has changed the analyst for Chalice Mining to Ross Bennett. The analyst cut the target price to $2.80 from $3.45, and upgraded the rating to Speculative Buy from Hold.

The broker notes new metallurgical tests confirmed Gonneville material can produce two types of smelter-grade concentrates: a Cu-PGE-Au concentrate and a Ni-Co-Pd-Pt-Au concentrate. 

The result increased the broker's confidence in Gonneville’s viability and is expected to increase its appeal to potential funding and development partners.

The broker updated its valuation to exclude the 30mtpa scenario outlined in the scoping study, and has opted for a phased operation scaling 15mtpa from 5mtpa.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $1.445
If CHN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 107% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting upside of 119.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CNI as Sell (5) -

It is UBS's first assessment that Centuria Capital's 1H25 operating profit after tax of $51.1m is 5% ahead of the broker's estimate.

Funds under management declined to $20.5bn, down -3% from FY24, driven by a reduction in real estate assets.

Management reaffirmed FY25 guidance, expecting operating EPS of 12c, up 2.5% year-on-year, and a dividend of 10.4c per share.

The broker notes the lack of a guidance upgrade, in contrast to peers, and remains cautious on sector-specific REIT IPO plans targeting FY26.

UBS analysts have maintained a Sell rating on Centuria Capital, keeping the price target at $1.74.

Target price is $1.74 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.015
If CNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COG as Buy (1) -

First half results for COG Financial Services were in line with Bell Potter's forecasts, with profit (NPATA) of $11.5m and revenue of $251m, the latter up by 7% year-on-year.

Novated leasing performed strongly, highlights the broker, while finance broking softened due to lower volumes, though market share remained stable at 21%.

Asset management saw platform asset growth of 7% to $579m, while new loan volumes declined by -13% to $62m.

An interim dividend of 3 cents was declared, below the 3.9 cents expected by the analysts.

Bell Potter lowers the target price to $1.23 from $1.25 and retains a Buy rating, citing funding diversification and strategic acquisitions as key growth drivers.

Target price is $1.23 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.22
If COG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COG as Buy (1) -

COG Financial Services reported first half net profit of $11.8m which had been reported previously, while the level of underlying cash generation was the positive surprise for Ord Minnett.

This was a function of a deliberate and steady shift in revenue mix to higher margin and less capital-intensive services.

The broker also notes earnings within the aggregation, brokerage and lending portfolio appear to be stabilising. A target dividend payout ratio of 50% has been flagged and Ord Minnett welcomes the move.

Buy rating and $1.34 target maintained.

Target price is $1.34 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.33
If COG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COL as Buy (1) -

Coles Group 1H25 financial result, upon first glance, has been labelled better than expected. Net profit of $576m proved 5% ahead of UBS' estimate, driven by stronger supermarket performance.

Revenue rose 3.7% to $23.04bn, slightly above expectations, while EBIT of $1.08bn was 4% ahead of forecasts, supported by margin expansion.

The broker highlights management noted a strong start to 3Q25, with supermarket sales up 3.4% in the first seven weeks, and re-affirmed FY25 capex guidance of -$1.3bn.

The broker sees improving gross margins from lower stock loss and cost efficiencies as key positives but remains watchful of rising costs and competition.

Buy, price target at $19.50.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $19.69 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.39, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CTT as Hold (3) -

Cettire’s 1H revenue grew 11% year-on-year to $394m, beating Bell Potter's expectations, while adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of $12.1m were in line with the consensus forecast.

Earnings (EBITDA) margins stabilised, but eased to 4.3% in the second quarter, down from 5% earlier in the period, reflecting increased reinvestment in growth, explains the broker.

Management expects stronger normalisation in the fourth quarter, which Bell Potter notes will be supported by improved demand trends and higher seasonal comparisons.

Bell Potter lowers the target price to $1.25 from $1.45 and retains a Hold rating, noting both execution risks and near-term margin pressures.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.145
If CTT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CXL as Buy (1) -

Calix's 1H25 revenue was up 11% y/y but missed Shaw and Partners' forecast for 12.2% growth but the result is still labelled better-than-expected as the reported loss marginally beat the broker's forecast. Cash outflow was better too.

The company expects revenue growth from Magnesia and Leilac, with -$6m annualised cost savings from January 1.

Following the result, the broker's net loss forecast for FY25 improved by 1.3%, but the FY26 forecast worsened by -22.7%.

Target price unchanged at $1.7, and Buy rating remains.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $1.235
If CXL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 266% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DBI as Buy (1) -

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure's 2024 EBITDA was $280m, in line with expectations, Citi notes, with strong FFO rising 11% to $157m on a 4% increase in total infrastructure charge (TIC) to $3.59/t.

The broker highlights improved operating leverage and cash flow, leading to a 2% upgrade in TY24/25 distributions to 23c per security, at the top end of the historical growth range.

Citi increases FY25/26 net profit estimates by 2-4%, reflecting higher TICs and better cost control, with distributions now franked.

The target price rises to $4.15 from $3.40, buy rating maintained.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $0.36
If DBI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DDR as Buy (1) -

It is UBS's first assessment Dicker Data's 2024 financial result was broadly in line with expectations, with revenue of $3.35bn, up 2.5% year-on-year and 1% ahead of UBS estimates, while EBITDA of $162m beat forecasts by 3%.

The broker notes gross margins softened in the second half due to increased competition in enterprise deals, though strong cost control helped offset the impact.

Equally noted: management mentioned a robust start to 2025, with January sales showing continued momentum and PC upgrades expected to support growth.

The broker sees upside potential from improving SME spending and AI-enabled device sales, but remains watchful of margin pressures.

UBS analysts have maintained a Buy rating on Dicker Data, keeping the price target at $10.00.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.60 Difference: $1.4
If DDR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DMP as Hold (3) -

Domino's Pizza Enterprises has signalled same-store sales growth has slowed to 1.5% in the first seven weeks of the second half, well down from the 4.3% rate reported at the trading update on February 7, Ord Minnett notes.

First half earnings were in line with guidance provided at that trading update, although operating cash flow disappointed the broker.

The company has plans to shut -205 loss-making stores in the June quarter, the majority in Japan, while committed to turning the Japanese operations around as well as those in France.

Ord Minnett has concerns about the strategy, suspecting it may be better to focus on the better performers that include Australasia, Germany and the Netherlands. Hold rating. Target is reduced to $31 from $33.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $27.81 Difference: $3.19
If DMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.29, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EGH as Add (1) -

Eureka Group lowered FY25 EBITDA and EPS guidance by -5% but Morgans notes this was partially offset by the reiteration of the guidance for fully deployed underlying EPS growth of at least 19%. The 1H25 result was in line with expectations

The broker understands the majority of the downgrade was due to uncertainty in the timing of transactions but the lower occupancy and delayed rental increases were notable.

The broker cut the FY25 EBITDA forecast by -3% to account for the downgraded guidance. FY26 forecast was unchanged. Target price declines marginally to 79c from 80c, and Add retained.

Target price is $0.79 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.21
If EGH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FLT as Buy (1) -

Flight Centre Travel reported a 1H25 PBT miss at $117m verus Citi’s $127m estimate, though FY25 guidance of $365m–$405m was maintained, with operations tracking towards the lower-to-mid range, the analyst says.

The broker emphasises it was a challenging first half due to airfare deflation, impacting trading and override accruals, though international ticket growth was strong at 12%, with Qatar's additional flights expected to support continued market recovery.

Citi notes muted performance in the US, where corporate total transaction value grew modestly after leisure business closures, though the broader market remains supportive.

The analyst lowers FY25–27 PBT estimates by -5% to -7%, revising FY25 to $361m and reducing the target price to $18.45 from $20.35.

Buy rating retained, with the stock seen trading at a discount of around -20% on rebased earnings expectations.

Target price is $18.45 Current Price is $15.92 Difference: $2.53
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.86, suggesting upside of 28.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FLT as Outperform (1) -

First half results from Flight Centre Travel revealed a soft first quarter was followed by a strong rebound in the second, and Macquarie notes the momentum continued into January. 

Underlying pre-tax profit was below forecasts with one-offs higher than anticipated. The company expects FY25 underlying pre-tax profit to be towards the low to mid point of the $365-405m range.

The broker notes ongoing business wins in corporate and improving international volumes in leisure should support solid growth going into FY26.

Outperform rating and $22.34 target maintained.

Target price is $22.34 Current Price is $15.92 Difference: $6.42
If FLT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.86, suggesting upside of 28.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FLT as Add (1) -

Morgans believes the underwhelming 1H25 result from Flight Centre Travel demonstrates the impact of materially lower airfares in a short period.

The 1H was also impacted by additional costs from cruise sector investment, losses in Asia, and higher doubtful debts provision.

On the positive side, 2Q returned to solid growth and this trend has continued into the 2H. The company effectively lowered net profit guidance for FY25, saying it is currently tracking toward the low-mid section of the indicated range. 

The broker's revised FY25 net profit forecast (-4.0%) is slightly below the bottom end of the range. FY26-27 projections were also revised down -2.4% and -2.1% respectively. Target price is $19.80 and rating is Add.

Target price is $19.80 Current Price is $15.92 Difference: $3.88
If FLT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.86, suggesting upside of 28.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FLT as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes the first half net profit from Flight Centre Travel was below expectations while the results shed little light on the future direction of earnings.

The company reiterated FY25 guidance and emphasised the first quarter result was unexpectedly weak with positive momentum emerging at the end of the second half, dominated by leisure.

The broker assesses the stock appears well-positioned to benefit from record outbound volumes, albeit to shorter destinations. Buy rating. Target rises to $22.54 from $22.51.

Target price is $22.54 Current Price is $15.92 Difference: $6.62
If FLT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.86, suggesting upside of 28.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FLT as Buy (1) -

Flight Centre Travel's 1H25 results were weaker than expected, UBS notes. Total Transaction Value (TTV) rose 3% year-on-year to $11.7bn, with EBITDA up 2% and profit before tax (PBT) up 10%.

Operating leverage was lower than the broker anticipated, as corporate gains were offset by softness in Asia and a shift toward lower-cost options.

An -$8m provision impacted 2Q25 earnings, with a potential reversal in 2H25. UBS notes corporate productivity improvements will likely drive stronger operating leverage in FY26.

The broker sees valuation as undemanding, with the stock trading at a 12.5x forward P/E, offering a 10% EPS compound annual growth rate over FY26–29, but increased risk to 2H25 earnings remains, given seasonal reliance.

UBS lowers the FY25–28 EPS forecast by -3% to -4%, reflecting softer operating performance, partially offset by lower depreciation and amortisation costs.

The target price is cut to $20 from $22.10, Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $15.92 Difference: $4.08
If FLT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.86, suggesting upside of 28.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GSS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights Genetic Signatures' US expansion is progressing, with first-half revenue rising by 12% year-on-year to $18.6m, though earnings (EBITDA) declined due to higher investment costs.

The company’s molecular diagnostic platform is seeing growing traction in international markets, observes the broker, with management reaffirming guidance for a stronger second half.

Cash reserves of $30m provide flexibility for continued R&D and market penetration, in Bell Potter's view.

The Speculative Buy rating and $1.05 target are retained, with the broker anticipating long-term upside from global adoption.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.48
If GSS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HLO as Buy (1) -

Helloworld Travel delivered first half results that were below Ord Minnett's forecast. The broker revises assumptions in the wake of EBITDA guidance of $56-62m, downgrading EPS estimates by -8% in FY25 and -6% in FY26.

The stock is considered materially undervalued, with a sound second half expected, being highly leveraged to the Australian outbound holiday travel segment that accelerated materially towards the end of 2024.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $2.28 from $2.65.

Target price is $2.28 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $0.62
If HLO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting upside of 42.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HLO as Buy (1) -

Helloworld Travel's 1H25 total transaction value (TTV) and underlying EBITDA missed Shaw and Partners' forecasts by -15.4% and -28.2% respectively. Interim dividend of 8c, however, beat the broker's forecast of 6c.

The broker reckons the interim dividend and the company's guidance of sequential 24% growth in underlying EBITDA in 2H suggest 2025 will be a solid year for earnings growth. 

The broker cut EBITDA forecast for FY25-27 by -23%, now expecting underlying EBITDA of $58m in FY25, within the company's guidance of $56-62m. Target price cut to $2.7 from $3.5, and Buy maintained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $1.04
If HLO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting upside of 42.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IAM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans notes Income Asset Management's 1H25 result was largely in line with expectations, with most metrics pre-released at 2Q update. 

Bond and loan funds under administration rose 32% y/y to $2.2bn and the broker expects it to reach $3.9bn by FY27.

The broker notes the company is targeting an average margin of 5-7bps on custodial holdings and expects all assets to transition to Perpetual Corporate Trust by the end of 3Q.

The broker cut FY25-27 EBITDA estimates on minor adjustments to bond/loan FUA and cost assumption. Target price cut to 8.4c from 8.8c, and Speculative Buy maintained.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.055
If IAM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 190% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IDX as Buy (1) -

Integral Diagnostics’ 1H earnings (EBITDA) of $64m were in line with Bell Potter's expectation, but softer volume growth and higher costs weighed on margins. 

The pro-forma earnings margin was circa 19.6% compared to the analysts' 21% forecast.

Revenue of $232m increased 8% year-on-year, with MRI and PET services outperforming other diagnostic segments, highlight the analysts.

Management reaffirmed the FY25 outlook, expecting 2H cost pressures to stabilise and operational efficiencies to improve.

Bell Potter lowers the target price to $3.59 from $3.87 and retains a Buy rating. The broker believes the negative share market reaction to the interim result creates a buying opportunity for investors.

Target price is $3.59 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $1.08
If IDX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.12, suggesting upside of 33.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IDX as Neutral (3) -

Integral Diagnostics' 1H25 EBITDA margin was below consensus by -190bps and company expectations due to clinical staff shortages and rising labour costs, Citi says.

The broker highlights capped contracts also weighed on margins, with resolution unlikely in 2H25, though merger synergies should provide a tailwind.

Citi explains FY26 revenue growth and margin expansion could be driven by deregulation of partial MRIs, a lung cancer screening contract, with Integral Diagnostics targeting 15-20% of the market, and at least $10m in merger synergies from Capitol Health.

The analyst lowers FY25-27 EPS by -11%, reflecting continued margin pressure. The target price is cut to $2.70 from $3.00, neutral rating maintained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $0.19
If IDX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.12, suggesting upside of 33.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IDX as Outperform (1) -

Revenue growth in the first half at Integral Diagnostics was 7.8%, in line with expectations. Macquarie anticipates tailwinds over the next year amid MRI deregulation and an uplift in CT scans from lung screening.

Margin expansion is expected in the second half with $4m in net cost synergies from the merger with Capitol Health. The broker reduces EPS for FY25 by -12% and FY26 by -4%. Outperform maintained. Target reduced to $3.20 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $0.69
If IDX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.12, suggesting upside of 33.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IDX as Buy (1) -

Integral Diagnostics reported 1H results weaker-than-expected by Ord Minnett, with adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of $47m, missing forecast by around -8%.

Revenue growth of 8.4% in Australia and 6.6% in New Zealand also fell below the broker's expectations, and costs increased, particularly staff costs.

Despite these challenges, the broker remains optimistic, expecting improvements in FY26, driven by Capitol Health synergies, MRI deregulation from July 2025, and national lung cancer screening funding.

Regulatory tailwinds, including the proposed bulk-billing expansions, should also support long-term growth, suggest the analysts.

The broker lowers its FY26-28 EPS by -17%-21% and the target falls to $3.00 from $3.30. The rating is maintained at Buy.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $0.49
If IDX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.12, suggesting upside of 33.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IEL as Neutral (3) -

It is UBS' early assessment that IDP Education's 1H25 financial result was weaker than expected, with EBIT of $92.7m down -42% year-on-year, and net profit of $58.3m, -12% below consensus forecasts.

Revenue fell -18% to $475m, largely impacted by a -22% decline in IELTS revenue due to lower volumes in India.

Management flagged a further -20-30% decline in the international student market for FY25, though still expects IDP Education to outperform the broader sector overall.

The broker remains cautious, noting softer-than-anticipated performance in student placements and rising operational costs in the second half.

Neutral, price target $14.70.

Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $11.79 Difference: $2.91
If IEL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.60, suggesting upside of 63.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Post the 2024 results, Morgan Stanley updates its modelling for production and cash cost guidance for 2025, making adjustments for 2026 based on guidance.

Interest payments are also marked lower and EPS benefits from lower corporate costs with estimates revised up accordingly. Target is reduced to $4.45 from $4.75. Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $4.25 Difference: $0.2
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.58, suggesting upside of 30.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates INR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes a setback for ioneer, with Sibanye Stillwater exiting the Rhyolite Ridge joint venture, creating a funding gap of circa -$1bn.  

Management now needs to seek new strategic partners, notes the broker, potentially delaying the development timeline

Despite these challenges, the project remains promising in the analysts' opinion, especially with its US-domiciled operation, making it an attractive target for long-term partners.

The broker maintains a Speculative Buy rating with an unchanged target price of 30 cents.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.15
If INR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPD as Speculative Buy (1) -

ImpediMed's 1H25 net loss of -$9.8m despite forex gains missed Morgans' forecast of -$6.0m on higher amortisation and administration costs.

The company's new growth funding facility of up to US$15m has taken funding risk off the table, the broker notes, but quarterly cash burn is expected to be -$3.5m.

The broker increased depreciation and amortisation forecasts and included interest expense, leading to a higher net loss estimate for FY25 of -$15.5m from -$12.1m. Target price cut to 16c from 17c, and Speculative Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.117
If IPD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 272% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JLG as Overweight (1) -

Further to the first half results, Morgan Stanley is less convinced about its Overweight rating for Johns Lyng but holds the stance for now.

The business performance was more volatile than previously thought, driving a material de-rating in the stock.

Delivering on FY25 guidance will therefore be an important step to re-establish confidence, which is the key headwind in the broker's opinion.

Benign weather has alleviated some concerns about the competitive position. The main negative was the extent of delays from US projects and underperformance in NSW. Target is reduced to $3.40 from $4.60. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.66
If JLG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.78, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KAR as Buy (1) -

Karoon Energy’s 2024 net profit beat expectations, driven by lower exploration expenses and tax on Citi's first take.

The FPSO acquisition for -US$115m is seen as earnings accretive, with potential EPS upside if Bauna’s life extension progresses, the broker explains.

Net debt of US$8m was well below consensus, while DPS of US5cps exceeded Citi’s US3cps estimate. 

Guidance remains unchanged, with a focus on existing assets and capital allocation. Citi expects a positive market reaction and re-iterates a Buy rating.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.61
If KAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting upside of 43.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates KGN as Hold (3) -

Kogan.com’s 1H pre-reported revenue of $318m was down -3% year-on-year, with gross profit margins improving to 32.5% as inventory management strategies took effect, explains Bell Potter.

Active customer numbers remained steady, while the Mighty Ape division (in New Zealand) underperformed, offset by stronger private-label sales, observe the analysts.

Management guided to a stronger second half, with cost reductions and marketing efficiency gains supporting profitability.

Bell Potter retains a Hold rating with a $5.00 target price, down from $5.10.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.90 Difference: $0.1
If KGN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KLS as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Kelsian Group delivered first half net profit that was down -8% and missed Macquarie's estimates. FY25 underlying EBITDA guidance has been reaffirmed at $283-295m, with a skew of 54% to the second half at the mid point.

While this shows management's confidence in the second half, the broker notes gearing at 3.2x remains a constraint. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target lowered to $3.20 from $4.80.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $0.13
If KLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.30, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates KLS as Buy (1) -

Kelsian Group's 1H25 result missed forecasts due to underperformance in its International Bus segment, with EBITDA falling -11% below UBS estimates.

Profit after tax and amortisation (NPATA) declined -8%, also below expectations due to disruptions in a key LNG contract and slowing demand from key tech clients.

UBS sees FY25 as a year of investment, with the company reaffirming its $283–295m EBITDA guidance. Management’s net sustainable capex of -$85m per year and a return exceeding the cost of capital is being targeted.

The broker believes execution on these metrics is critical for re-rating.

UBS lowers net profit after tax forecasts by -3% for FY25 and -5% for FY26, driven by weaker International Bus performance, partially offset by upgrades in Australian Bus and Marine & Tourism.

Target cut to $4.80 from $5.60, Buy rating retained.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $1.73
If KLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.30, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LFS as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades Latitude Group to Equal-weight from Underweight, assessing good progress has been made on its initiatives and the operating environment is supportive for margins and volumes.

There are emerging signs of operating leverage and the company has resumed its dividend.

The broker is mindful of the risk of increased competition and the relatively higher credit risk profile and believes management will need to build a track record of solid results in order to rebuild investor confidence and drive a re-rating.

Target is raised to $1.30 from $0.95. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.11
If LFS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter raises its target for Light & Wonder to $205 from $192 following FY24 results showing adjusted profit (NPATA) rising by 14% year-on-year to US$127m, beating the broker's US$113m forecast.

Revenue grew by 10% year-on-year to US$3.2bn, with adjusted earnings (EBITDA) rising 13% to US$1.1bn, supported by strong demand across gaming and iGaming segments, explain the analysts.

A beat to consensus earnings (AEBITDA) was driven by SciPlay margin enhancement via the Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) platform and gaming margins stronger-than-expected by Bell Potter, reflecting cost optimisation initiatives.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating, citing the company’s leading market position and improving profitability.

Target price is $205.00 Current Price is $170.88 Difference: $34.12
If LNW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $193.83, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Light & Wonder reported 4Q 2024 adjusted EBITDA of US$315m, 1% ahead of Citi and 2% ahead of consensus, supported by gaming operations growth and strong title performance, Citi notes.

The broker highlights Huff N Puff reaching 750 units and expects 2,700 net additions in FY25, driving 12% adjusted EBITDA growth for gaming.

SciPlay's direct-to-consumer penetration rose to 13%, with the analyst forecasting 15% by FY26, supporting margin expansion. iGaming grew 9%, though no new US state legalisations are expected in FY25.

The broker raises FY25/26 adjusted EBITDA estimates by 1%, reflecting higher gaming growth.

Citi maintains a buy rating with a target price of $200.00.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $170.88 Difference: $29.12
If LNW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $193.83, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LNW as Outperform (1) -

Light & Wonder posted fourth quarter AEBITDA of US$315m. Macquarie observes some challenges in the fourth quarter centred on land-based gaming while outright volumes were lower than expected.

The company appears set to deliver at least US$1.4bn in 2025 AEBITDA as the broker notes tailwinds across all verticals and improving cash flow, beating guidance and ongoing execution support a re-rating.

Target is lifted to $198 from $191, based on an AUD/USD exchange rate of US$0.63. Outperform.

Target price is $198.00 Current Price is $170.88 Difference: $27.12
If LNW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $193.83, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LNW as Buy (1) -

UBS views Light & Wonder's 2024 results as solid, with adjusted NPATA of US$127m in 4Q24, in line with UBS estimates and 5% above consensus.

North American gaming operations saw net installs of 853 units, exceeding the broker's expectations, though fee per day declined -1%. iGaming revenue grew 11%, driven by new content launches.

The analyst anticipates FY25 adjusted EBITDA of US$1.4bn, supported by continued gaming segment growth, Grover acquisition benefits, and improving revenue yields.

The broker sees minimal further impact from the Dragon Train injunction beyond 4Q24. UBS raises its price target to $198 from $175, citing stronger earnings forecasts and cash flow. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $198.00 Current Price is $170.88 Difference: $27.12
If LNW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $193.83, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LOV as Buy (1) -

Lovisa’s first-half earnings fell short of Bell Potter's expectations, with comparable store sales only rising by 0.1%, but showing a 3.7% improvement in early second-half trading, highlights Bell Potter.

Store expansion continues, with 53 net openings expected by the analysts in the second half, bringing the total to 996 by year-end.

Gross margins remained resilient, in the broker's view, despite tariff headwinds in the US, which accounts for 25% of sales.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating with a $30.00 target price, reflecting confidence in the company’s global expansion strategy.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $28.44 Difference: $1.56
If LOV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.25, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LYC as Hold (3) -

Lynas Rare Earths’ first-half earnings (EBITDA) of $38m came in short of Bell Potter and consensus forecasts for $69m and $68m, respectively, driven by lower rare earths pricing and production interruptions.

On a cash basis, the result painted a better picture, according to the broker, with operating cash flow of $49.5m, up from $5.5m in the previous corresponding period.

Management reaffirmed its long-term production target of 12,000tpa of NdPr, with the Kalgoorlie processing facility ramp-up expected in 2025. 

Bell Potter has a $7.30 target price, up from $7.20, alongside a Hold rating reflecting both near-term production risks and long-term growth potential.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $6.85 Difference: $0.45
If LYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LYC as Sell (5) -

On further inspection, Citi highlights China continues to tighten its control over the rare earths industry, pressuring ex-China pricing and limiting supply growth.

The broker lowers Lynas Rare Earths FY25/26 NPAT forecasts by -29%/-22%, citing higher unit costs and depreciation.

The target price is cut to $5.50 from $6.85, Sell rating maintained.

****

On first take, Citi highlights 1H25 EBITDA of $38.1m for Lynas Rare Earths was below consensus by -44% and the anlayst's $69.8m estimate due to higher unit costs and a -$10m cost of sales overrun.

The broker notes D&A exceeded forecasts, while a -$16.5m FX loss resulted in NPAT of $5.9m vs. Citi's $39.1m estimate and $36.2m consensus.

Mangement offered no update on technical issues with impurities in MREC feedstock. The Dy and Tb separation circuit remains on track for commissioning and ramp-up in mid-2025. Spot NdPr is now US$55/kg, the broker explains.

Citi notes cost of sales rose 29% from higher volumes, up 23% and increased unit costs as new facilities at Mt Weld, Kalgoorlie, and Malaysia came online. Average cost per REO sold was circa $30/kg vs. Citi's $28.5/kg estimate.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $6.85 Difference: minus $1.35 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Neutral (3) -

Lynas Rare Earths' 1H25 results were weak, Macquarie reports, with earnings below consensus, partially attributable to FX losses.

Lynas stands out as a major rare earths producer outside China, the broker notes, capitalising on the improving NdPr market. Its strategic edge includes robust processing capabilities, significant heavy rare earth resources at Mt Weld, a long mine life, and plans to expand into North America.

The share price lag to NdPr prices is likely due to short-term market uncertainties and unclear production and growth plans, the broiker suggests. A new five-year plan update could positively shift market perception, in the broker's view.

Despite a constructive long-term output and price outlook, Macquarie sees a bumpy road ahead for Lynas in 2025. Neutral retained, target falls to $7.10 from $7.20.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.85 Difference: $0.25
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Underweight (5) -

At first glance, Lynas Rare Earths posted EBITDA in the first half that missed expectations by -51%, driven by higher cost of sales and a net FX loss.

Morgan Stanley had been flagging risks to costs given C&L assets were running at suboptimal levels. Underweight rating and $5.70 target. The industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $6.85 Difference: minus $1.15 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Buy (1) -

In Ord Minnett's view, Lynas Rare Earths reported soft earnings for H1 due to currency impacts and other smaller movements in operational costs.

Management retained a positive outlook, according to the broker, with the hope for stronger pricing in the future, despite soft demand in rare earth oxides (REO).

The target price remains at $7.80, and the Buy recommendation is maintained, though the analysts express caution around REO demand.

Ord Minnett highlights NdPr prices increased by circa US$5/kg during February on proposed changes to Chinese REO production regulations.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $6.85 Difference: $0.95
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MAP as Speculative Buy (1) -

There were no major surprises for Bell Potter in Microba Life Sciences' 1H results given the recent Q2 update.

Revenue grew 12% year-on-year to $18.1m, with gross margins of 47%, below the broker's expectations due to currency impacts and acquisition-related costs.

Operating expenses declined by -26% year-on-year, driven by lower R&D spending, while cash reserves stood at $17.3m with minimal debt, observe the analysts.

Management reaffirmed guidance for stronger second-half performance, with growth expected from expanded commercial partnerships.

Bell Potter retains a Buy (Speculative) rating with a 36 cent target price, highlighting long-term upside from microbiome therapeutics.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.115
If MAP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MAP as Speculative Buy (1) -

Microba Life Sciences' 1H25 result was largely in line with Morgans' expectations, and the broker notes the business is performing as expected with strong prescriber growth and referral rates continuing.

The improvement in net loss to -$5.7m from -$11.5m was helped by a $2.45m reversal of contingent liability related to the Invivo acquisition.

The broker rolled this off into the forecast and included forex gains and adjusted R&D expenses, resulting in a small rise in target price to 34c from 33c. 

Speculative Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.095
If MAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MCE as Speculative Hold (3) -

Matrix Composites & Engineering's 1H underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $3.2m bettered Bell Potter's $2.6m forecast, impacted by lower-than-expected sales from Corrosion Technologies and Advanced Materials.

Management expects 2H revenue will be similar to the 1H. Reduced forecasts reflect changes to the broker's Subsea revenue outlook, indirect cost estimates, D&A forecasts and working capital assumptions.

Bell Potter sees value at the current share price, and keeps its Speculative Hold rating and lowers the target price to 28 cents from 33 cents.

All in all, the result seems to be in line with forecasts, though a net negative through reduced forecasts and a lowered price target dominates.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.08
If MCE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MCE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Matrix Composites & Engineering's (MCE) 1H25 results were softer than expected by Morgans, with revenue broadly in line but with earnings (EBITDA) coming in -17% below forecast. A weaker second half is expected due to delays in customer awards.

The company faces challenges in its drilling segment, explains the broker, with limited revenue from drill-riser buoyancy despite high tendering activity.

More positively, the Subsea Umbilicals, Risers, and Flowlines (SURF) market remains a strong growth driver, with the company achieving a record year in SURF revenue, highlights the analyst.

Despite short-term challenges, management remains optimistic about the medium-and long-term outlook, particularly with a key period from June to September when a significant portion of $300m submitted SURF tenders are expected to result in awards.

The broker's target price has been reduced to 30 cents from 44 cents, reflecting the weaker outlook. The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.1
If MCE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

On first inspection, Medibank Private delivered a strong 1H25 result, with earnings ahead of Citi and consensus estimates, driven by better-than-expected Health Insurance profit. Cybercrime costs were stable.

Policyholder growth remained weak, with management now guiding for disciplined growth in 2H25. PHI gross margins improved due to risk equalisation and premium downgrading, while net margin exceeded forecasts. Non-resident policy growth remains strong but is slowing.

A fully franked interim dividend was in line with expectations, though the payout ratio was below the target range.

Citi sees the company managing claims inflation well, with the higher-than-expected April 2025 premium rate increase likely to support sentiment. The stock is expected to rise.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $4.02 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MPL as Buy (1) -

Medibank Private's 1H25 financial result, upon initial assessment, looks better than expected, with operating profit of $360m beating UBS' and consensus estimates by 4%, driven by record first-half health insurance net margins of 8.5%.

Statutory net profit of $340m was 14% above UBS' estimate, while underlying net proifit of $299m proved in line.

The broker highlights management has lowered its FY25 claims inflation outlook to approximately 2.5%, down from 2.7%, and expects revenue growth per policy to offset rising costs.

The broker remains positive on the health insurer's ability to sustain margins despite increasing hospital indexation pressures.

Buy rating, price target at $4.30.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.02 Difference: $0.28
If MPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

nib Holdings' approved premium rate increase from 1 April 2025 is 5.79%, well above the industry average of 3.73% and Medibank Private’s ((MPL)) 3.99%, Citi notes.

The broker views this as a positive surprise, removing key uncertainty around the stock and likely driving a strong initial rally.

The analyst raises forecast FY25 EPS by 1% and FY26/27 by 3%, forecasting FY25 underlying operating profit at $249.8m, at the top end of guidance. The arhi margin is now projected at 7.1% for FY25, slightly above the target range.

Target price rises to $6.95 from $6.75.  Neutral rating retained due to valuation considerations.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $6.35 Difference: $0.6
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.77, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NSR as Buy (1) -

On further inspection Citi lifts FY25/26/27 earnings estimates by 0.1%/0.9%/1.2%, respectively, incorporating higher operating centre costs. The target price remains $2.70, Buy rating maintained.

****

On first inspection, National Storage REIT reaffirmed FY25 underlying earnings guidance of at least 11.8cps and $163m, in line with Citi's expectations.

In 1H25 revenue per available square metre (REVPAM) grew 3.5%, driven by 8.5% rental growth, while occupancy fell -3.6%, reflecting a higher proportion of developments that take three years to stabilise.

Seven new developments were completed in 1H15, with potential to generate $15m in additional revenue once stabilised.

Citi notes the REIT trades at an -11% discount to revised NTA per share of $2.53, with a 5.89% cap rate.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.5
If NSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.52, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NSR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

National Storage REIT's 1H25 underlying earnings were up 2% year on year and -1% below Macquarie's estimate. FY25 guidance implies at least 7% growth in 2H25 on 1H25.

As per the commentary, 2H25 earnings growth will come from a combination of rent growth from the stabilised portfolio enhanced by improved occupancy and revenue per average sqm from growth assets.

National Storage has an additional 200,000sqm under construction or has DA obtained and is planned for delivery over the next 24 months, the broker notes.

The REIT offers a 5.2% yield and a 6.2% three-year CAGR with underlying rental growth enhanced by accretive developments and acquisitions, Macquarie points out. Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $2.42 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.42 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.22
If NSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.52, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NSR as Underweight (5) -

National Storage REIT delivered EPS of 5.7 cents for the first half, in line with Morgan Stanley's forecasts. Full year guidance has been reiterated for a minimum of 11.8 cents in EPS.

The broker notes progress on scaling up developments and incorporating JV partners. Operationally there is some weakness in the consumer, with occupancy slipping to 80.3%.

While the GIC partnership settled in October, the broker observes limited movement on deployment of the initial $270m capacity.

Underweight. Target is $2.55. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.35
If NSR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.52, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NSR as Neutral (3) -

National Storage REIT's 1H25 underlying earnings per unit of 5.7c missed consensus by -5%, UBS notes.

FY25 guidance for 11.8c was reaffirmed, with a stronger 2H25 expected due to seasonality, lower debt costs of 4.5% versus 5% in 1H25, and Ventures JV fees.

Revenue per available metre (RevPAM) rose 3% to $347, the highest since June 2020, but was offset by a -170bps decline in occupancy to 80.3%, the lowest since June 2020, the broker explains.

UBS sees potential for rate cuts in 2H 2025 and 1H 2026 to maintain occupancy above 80%.

While positive on the long-term development strategy, the analyst highlights near-term risks from an earnings air pocket as projects ramp up and expects occupancy to improve with a recovery in housing turnover.

Price target set at $2.59, Neutral rating maintained.

Target price is $2.59 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.39
If NSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.52, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NXD as Speculative Buy (1) -

NextEd Group's 1H result exceeded Ord Minnett's expectations, mainly due to a greater-than-anticipated contribution from vocational students, although English language student numbers remain under pressure.

Management's acquisition of International House students went smoothly, note the analysts, adding 1,900 new students.

The company is focused on cost out programs (including an additional -$2m per annum) just announced and optimising operations, highlights Ord Minnett.

The broker retains a Speculative Buy rating, based on expected growth in vocational education, with an unchanged target price of 30 cents.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.145
If NXD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 94% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OCL as Neutral (3) -

It is UBS' early assessment Objective Corp's 1H25 financial result has matched expectations, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) reaching $107m, 2% higher than June 2024 and 10% above December 2023.

The broker does add the ARR numbers is still slightly below the consensus forecast of $110m.

EBITDA increased 6% to $23m, while net profit rose 4% to $17m, both aligning with analyst expectations.

Management reiterated its FY25 ARR growth target of 15%, implying a stronger second-half performance, and highlighted early success with $4.5m in new ARR secured in 2H25.

The broker remains cautious about whether ARR growth will accelerate sufficiently to meet full-year targets. Neutral rating, target $17.00.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $16.18 Difference: $0.82
If OCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.40, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ONE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Commenting after FY24 results, Bell Potter notes Oneview Healthcare's Care Experience Platform has expanded its contracted footprint to 19,429 beds, with 12,544 now live.

Revenue for FY24 grew by 5.3% to EUR9.9m, while gross profit increased by 8.2%, though lower-margin non-recurring revenue impacted margins, note the analyst.

While registering a net loss, cash receipts and contracted hospital beds continued to grow, supporting future earnings potential, highlights the broker.

Bell Potter raises its valuation to 45c from 40c and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.105
If ONE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PBH as Hold (3) -

PointsBet Holdings' 1H revenue and normalised earnings (EBITDA) aligned with Bell Potter's forecasts. Australian earnings were well ahead of the broker's forecast, while the earnings loss in Canada was worse-than-expected.

Management maintained FY25 revenue guidance.

BlueBet Holdings ((BBT)) has announced a cash/scrip offer for PointsBet ((PBH)) valued between -$340-360m. 

Despite this, the broker observes the PointsBet board has unanimously endorsed a $353m cash offer from Japan's MIXI Inc, providing shareholders with $1.06 per share.

Target price rises to $1.10 from 90c. Hold rating retained.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0
If PBH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDN as Buy (1) -

On first inspection, Paladin Energy reported a 1H25 NPAT loss of -US$4.6m, a -US$10m miss vs Citi and consensus expectations due to higher cost of sales.

The analyst says higher-than-expected depreciation, amortisation, and selling expenses contributed to the shortfall.

The broker notes Paladin has begun early mining at Langer Heinrich, engaging contractors to access higher-grade ore, which could improve operational momentum.

Citi lowers FY25 EBITDA estimate by -40% following the earnings miss and reduces FY26/27 estimates by -6%/-5%, respectively.

The target price is lowered to $13.30 from $13.50, Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $6.97 Difference: $6.33
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.49, suggesting upside of 64.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PDN as Buy (1) -

No surprise for Shaw and Partners from Paladin Energy's 1H25 result, with the broker noting the company is now cash flow positive with free cash flow from operations of US$6.4m.

The broker highlights the company’s stronger language on the potential to restart mining activities early, and the consolidation of the Fission Energy accounts.

The broker has factored in weaker-than-expected uranium prices, resulting in a -46% reduction in FY25 EBITDA forecast to US$37m but no material change to future forecasts.

Target price cut to $15.5 from $15.8, and Buy maintained.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $6.97 Difference: $8.53
If PDN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.49, suggesting upside of 64.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PPM as Buy (1) -

Pepper Money delivered a stronger-than-expected 2024 result, with net profit 6–7% ahead of expectations, Citi notes on first inspection, and a higher than forecast dividend.

Whole loan sales grew to $2.5bn, driving better gains on sale and lower bad debt expenses due to provision releases, the analyst explains.

Net interest margin was in line with expectations, though net interest income was -2% below consensus due to lower lending AUM and higher churn. 

Citi sees whole loan sales as a strategic balance sheet optimisation tool, but notes falling originations and a -13% decline in lending assets under management.

The key question, the broker posits, is whether management will shift focus to growing the balance sheet in 2025.

The stock is expected to react positively to the earnings beat and dividend, with investor attention on capital allocation and funding conditions moving forward.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.175
If PPM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PPT as Buy (1) -

Perpetual's 1H25 core earnings missed Citi’s estimate but were slightly ahead of consensus at first glance. Reported EPS of 89.2cps was -1% below forecasts due to a higher tax rate and costs, partially offset by a lower share count.

The simplification program now targets -$70–80m in annualised cost savings by FY27, up from -$25–35m by FY26, with -$70–75m in one-off costs expected, the broker notes.

Expense growth of 4% was at the top end of guidance, with FY25 expenses expected to remain at this level.

Asset Management's profit grew 7%, Corporate Trust 8%, and Wealth Management 12% to $29.2m. The Wealth division’s separation and proposed sale are progressing.

Citi expects the stock to be flat to slightly up, as the cost savings upgrade should offset the slight earnings miss, though investor scepticism remains.

Target price is $24.20 Current Price is $23.33 Difference: $0.87
If PPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.43, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PTM as Hold (3) -

Following 1H results, Bell Potter notes Platinum Asset Management has been impacted by ongoing fund outflows, leading to a decline in revenue and earnings (EBITDA).

The broker makes only minor changes to its forecasts and retains a Hold rating and 70 cent target.

The operating profit at $35.6m was slightly better-than-expected by the broker, helped by slightly better management fees rates, and a tight control on expenses.

The broker highlights a lack of diversification, with the International and Asia funds dominating assets under management.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.1
If PTM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QAN as Neutral (3) -

On first take, Citi notes Qantas Airways' 1H25 EBIT of $1,505m was in line with consensus, with Jetstar outperforming by 15%, while Qantas Domestic and International missed by -7% and -4%, respectively.

The broker attributes this to customer down-trading, with Qantas Domestic RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometres) and ASK (Available Seat Kilometres) flat or down, while Jetstar saw strong growth.

Management announced a fully franked $250m dividend, along with a $150m special dividend replacing a buyback. FY26 capex guidance of -$4.1–4.3bn was slightly above expectations.

Fuel costs of -$5.22bn versus -$5.01bn consensus are a moderate negative, the analyst explains, adding $100–200m in 2H25 costs, but Citi notes a positive RASK outlook could offset this.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $8.89 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If QAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.10, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QAN as Neutral (3) -

Upon first assessment, UBS believes Qantas Airways'1H25 financial result was in line with consensus but above UBS' estimates, with revenue of $12.13bn, up 9% year-on-year, and underlying EBIT of $1.51bn, exceeding the UBS forecast by 15%.

As per the broker's commentary, Jetstar drove the earnings beat, while stronger-than-expected domestic revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) helped offset international softness.

Management announced a return to franked dividends, declaring a 26.4cps payout, including a 9.9cps special dividend, instead of a buyback.

The broker sees a stable outlook for FY25, though cost pressures remain a key watchpoint. UBS analysts have maintained a Neutral rating, keeping the price target at $9.00.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.89 Difference: $0.11
If QAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.10, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RDY as Buy (1) -

ReadyTech’s 1H performance was below Ord Minnett's expectations, attributed to project delays, particularly in the Government division. FY25 guidance for revenue, earnings (EBITDA) and medium-term targets were also downgraded.

Despite these disappointments, the analysts observe the company’s pipeline is growing, with strong demand in its Enterprise division.

The broker lowers the target to $3.75 from $3.97, but maintains a Buy rating, noting expected growth due to both a strong pipeline and cost-saving initiatives.

Management expects to convert between 80-90% of its ‘high conviction’ pipeline in H2 (around $11.5m), of which circa 50% will be recurring, explains Ord Minnett.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.8
If RDY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.95, suggesting upside of 39.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RDY as Buy (1) -

ReadyTech Holdings' 1H25 revenue missed Shaw and Partners' forecast on product delays in local government, with the broker surprised by just 1% y/y growth from local government revenue.

The broker, however, highlights the potential for upside following the company's decision to purchase Councilwise in early February to address the delay in developing its own solution.

The broker also sees growth acceleration in 2H and FY26 from late-stage pipeline. Assuming these deals close, the broker estimates 10% y/y revenue growth in 2H and a return to mid-double-digit growth in FY26.

The broker cut forecasts in line with the company's revised FY25 guidance of high-single digit revenue growth from low-mid teens prior. Target price is lowered to $4.5 from $4.8, and Buy maintained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $1.55
If RDY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.95, suggesting upside of 39.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RMC as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Resimac Group reported a lower-than-expected net profit due to reduced loan growth, lower net interest margins, and increased impairment charges.

The acquisition of Westpac’s ((WBC)) $1.5bn auto loan book is expected to contribute $6m in 2025 and $12m in 2026, supporting earnings growth, explains the broker.

The interim dividend was maintained at 3.5 cents.

Despite near-term headwinds, the analysts see potential for growth in 2026 and retain the $1.10 target and Buy rating.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.15
If RMC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.03, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMC as Neutral (3) -

Resimac Group has grown its book by 2% half on half but the growth has come at a cost, Macquarie notes, with net interest margins falling -5bps.

On a positive note, it appears tailwinds from funding are beginning to show and the broker expects this to turn around.

Yet, with Resimac's strategy for assets under management growth over margin optimisation, Macquarie anticipates much of the funding tailwinds will be passed onto borrowers in order to compete for new business, limiting any margin recovery.

While pre-provision earnings were consistent with consensus, headline cash earnings missed, driven by elevated impairment charges. 

Conditions have improved for non-bank lenders, the broker notes, but lending remains competitive. Target falls to $1.00 from $1.05, Neutral retained.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.05
If RMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.03, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Regal Partners continues to power ahead in the asset management space, according to Bell Potter, commenting after FY24 results.

The result was largely pre-reported, leaving the broker to review fee rates and expenses. 

Management fees were a couple of basis points lower than expected, but the analysts expect a full six month impact from margins at the acquired Merrick and Argyle will provide a boost.

While expenses were slightly lower than forecast by the broker, lower management fees meant normalised profit was -1% lower than expectations.

Bell Potter raises the target price to $5.00 from $4.85 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: $1.66
If RPL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.57, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Regal Partners' 2024 result was slightly below Ord Minnett’s forecast but aligned with consensus.

Underlying NPAT rose 198% to $97.5m, though slightly missing the broker’s $100.4m estimate. The final dividend doubled to 10cps but was below the expected 12cps.

Ord Minnett lowers FY25 EPS forecasts by -6% due to performance fee adjustments, with minimal changes for FY26–27 estimates. The price target is reduced to $4.30 from $4.40.

The broker sees strong FUM growth, record net flows, and robust investment performance supporting new business. The valuation remains undemanding, with a 14.0x FY25 P/E and a 5.7% dividend yield. Buy rated.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: $0.96
If RPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.57, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SCG as Buy (1) -

Citi notes post further inspection that Scentre Group reported continued operational momentum, with portfolio occupancy at 99.6%, specialty rent escalations of 5.2%, and leasing spreads of 2.0%.

A key highlight was the strong negotiating power with tenants and potential near-term gains from subordinated note buybacks, which could reduce finance costs, the analyst explains.

The broker says Scentre Group is also exploring residential developments adjacent to its centres, leveraging excess land and parking lots for long-term growth.

Citi lowers FY25/26/27 FFO forecasts by -3.2%/-2.5%/-1.9%, reflecting higher security and electricity costs.

The target price is reduced slightly to $3.90 from $3.91, Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $0.38
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SCG as Overweight (1) -

Scentre Group delivered 2024 FFO of 21.82 cents, which was at the lower end of guidance and below Morgan Stanley's estimates.

At first glance, the broker assesses this has stemmed from continued uplift in property expenses and $23m in provision reversals. Neither of these are assumed for 2025.

The company has articulated potential options across 670 ha of land but the broker observes, at this stage, any additional earnings are some years away.

Operating metrics appear headed in a positive direction and the Overweight rating is maintained. Target is $4.44. The industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $4.44 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $0.92
If SCG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SCG as Neutral (3) -

Scentre Group’s 2024 funds from operations (FFO) rose 3.5% year-on-year, in line with UBS estimates but -1% below consensus.

FY25 FFO guidance of 22.75cps represents 4.3% growth but remains slightly below market expectations. Portfolio occupancy improved 40bps to 99.6%, while rent escalations averaged 5.2%.

UBS notes cost pressures, including security and cleaning expenses, increased property costs by 6.3%, limiting net property income growth to 4%.

The broker's earnings forecasts for FY25–29 rise by 1.4%, but distribution growth is reduced by -3% as the group prioritises balance sheet strength over payout expansion.

Neutral rating retained, with UBS citing limited near-term upside due to elevated leverage and a constrained ability to pursue acquisitions or developments.

Price target remains at $3.74.

Target price is $3.74 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $0.22
If SCG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -

Steadfast Group's price guidance has been downgraded but underlying earnings per share guidance is unchanged, Macquarie notes, with ongoing roll-ups, cost control and higher investment income.

Steadfast has increased its gearing ceiling, allowing future growth to be generated within the current funding envelope and deferring an equity raising.

Over the long term, the ability to maximise returns on a US roll-out is key to the company's long-term value, Macquarie suggests. 

Heading into the result, Steadfast was trading at a -23.3% discount to international brokers versus a 6.7% long-term premium.

Target rises to $6.80 from $6.50, Outperform retained.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.70 Difference: $1.1
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.83, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SDF as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley is confident in the multi-year growth opportunity at Steadfast Group, despite the first half's moderating premiums, and while the growth driver has been Australasia the "growth baton" is likely to increasingly pass to the US and global operations.

The company recently acquired HW Wood, expanding into Lloyd's broking and also into France and Greece.

Morgan Stanley believes this is the correct path strategically as more client product needs should be met in both Australia and the US.

Target is reduced to $6.71 from $6.98. Overweight rating. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $6.71 Current Price is $5.70 Difference: $1.01
If SDF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).