Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates AD8 as Overweight (1) -

Audinate Group has reiterated 26-31% US revenue growth guidance which compares to Morgan Stanley's estimate of 28%.

The broker highlights several points from management commentary including an elevated backlog and robust industry demand. Also, the company is approaching cash breakeven.

The analyst concludes networked video adoption is headed in the right direction and supportive of medium-term growth.

The Overweight rating and $10 target are unchanged. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.38 Difference: $1.62
If AD8 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.40, suggesting upside of 25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ALD as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Credit Suisse believes Ampol's share price has been unfairly marked-down following 3Q results and upgrades its rating to Outperform from Neutral.

Earnings (EBIT) came in at $266m compared to the analyst's forecast for $338m, due to underperformance in Fuels and Infrastructure on a number of trading-related factors and adverse movements in freight.

The target price falls to $30.49 from $31.93 after the broker downgrades FY22 and FY23 EPS estimates by -6.2% and -7.6%, respectively.

Target price is $30.49 Current Price is $27.35 Difference: $3.14
If ALD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.15, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -

Losses from the Fuel and Infrastructure division saw Ampol's third quarter earnings come in -11% lower than Macquarie had forecast at $272m, and the broker warns issues plaguing the division may carry into 2023. 

The broker finds the rest of the company to be performing well, noting strong quarterly performance from Z Energy, Convenience Retail and Refining, but a -12% selloff in shares during the period indicates the market remains focused on Fuel and Infrastructure losses. 

Macquarie finds an attractive buying opportunity in the recent share price decline. The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $40.00 from $40.45.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $27.35 Difference: $12.65
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.15, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Buy (1) -

Ampol's trading update was weaker than Ord Minnett had expected, with operating earnings tracking below forecast largely from softer Lytton refining margins, which reached just US$15 per barrel compared to an anticipated US$20. 

While earnings of $1.3bn for the first three quarters of the year is more than double the same period in the previous year, but a -6% miss on Ord Minnett's forecast.

The broker maintains Ampol is attractively positioned to recovering industry fuel demand. The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $37.40 from $39.00.

Target price is $37.40 Current Price is $27.35 Difference: $10.05
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.15, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALD as Buy (1) -

Ampol's September-quarter earnings missed consensus and UBS forecasts by -17% due to unfavourable trades and high jet-freight costs.

The latter offset fuel volume growth in A&NZ.

But UBS believes the resulting sell-off is overdone and therefore presents a good entry point for investors.

EPS forecasts fall -5% to -11% across FY22 to FY24.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $36.65 from $39.80.

Target price is $36.65 Current Price is $27.35 Difference: $9.3
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.15, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates APM as Outperform (1) -

Following yesterday's Labor government budget, Credit Suisse points out APM Human Services International is a clear winner from an extension of the Disability Employment Services (DES) program for two years.

DES is the company's largest contract, comprising around 15-20% of revenue, explains the analyst. A large increaser in NDIS funding is also expected to aide the company's medium-term growth strategy.

The Outperform rating and $4.30 target are unchanged.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $1.03
If APM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CCP as Add (1) -

Morgans believes Credit Corp will benefit in the medium-term from weaker economic conditions, which will enable an accelerated investment in the US and potential for acquisitions. This view follows maintenance of FY23 earnings guidance at 1Q results. 

The broker notes the group faces an earnings headwind from lower core Australian purchasing over FY21-23 and lending volume growth should be a near-term drag. 

The target falls to $24.35 from $26.80 and the Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $24.35 Current Price is $18.43 Difference: $5.92
If CCP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.75, suggesting upside of 37.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCP as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Credit Corp has retained its full year earnings guidance and lifted the lower end of its purchased debt ledger guidance range. The update, alongside cash collections holding up, was well received by the market, particularly given recent industry cash collections.

Ord Minnett upgrades to Buy from Accumulate and the target price decreases to $28.00 from $28.50.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $18.43 Difference: $9.57
If CCP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.75, suggesting upside of 37.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGC as Outperform (1) -

Media sources have suggested Costa Group's former private equity owner, Paine Schwartz Partners, is looking to acquire up to a 15% stake in the company. It is suggested that Paine Schwartz Partners is willing to pay $2.60 per share, reflecting a 17% premium to the company's last closing price.

Should a deal eventuate, Macquarie warns of potential adverse impacts on Costa Group being able to make domestic asset acquisitions without FIRB approval, which could drag on growth ambitions. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $2.71 are retained.

Target price is $2.71 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.48
If CGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Capricorn Metals has reported strong drilling results from both Mt Gibson and Karlawinda which will inform a resource update in the second quarter. Ahead of the resource update Macquarie has lifted its expected mine life across both projects by an average 1.5 years.

The company particularly highlighted that results at Mt Gibson should allow a significant portion of the inferred resource to be upgraded to an indicated resource.

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target price increases to $3.50 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: $0.18
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COL as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett now prefers Coles Group over Woolworths Group, and accordingly raises its rating to Hold from Lighten and lifts its target to $16.00 from $15.80.

By comparison to Woolworths, the analyst sees better sales momentum, less downside risk to consensus earnings forecasts and a fairer current valuation multiple.

Mind you, the broker is cautious on the overall outlook for the grocery space, despite believing risks are now more reflected in valuations. There's considered to be some downside risk to consensus earnings, following an inflection point reached in the FY22 reporting season.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $16.60 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.44, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DOW as Outperform (1) -

Wet weather appears to have eroded some of Downer EDI's net profit growth buffer according to Macquarie, which noted guidance for 10-20% growth over the year assumes no material covid, weather or labour disruptions, despite first quarter flooding and expected ongoing wet weather.

Given this, the broker sits at the lower end of the guidance range at 10% net profit growth. Wet weather impacts also drive earnings per share forecast downgrades of -5% and -3%. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $5.61 from $6.04.

Target price is $5.61 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: $1.24
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.03, suggesting upside of 36.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EVN as Add (1) -

Evolution Mining has left FY23 production and cost guidance unchanged despite revealing softer 1Q production than Morgans expected and above-consensus all-in sustaining costs (AISC).

Operations at Mt Rawdon and Cowal drove the production underperformance due to weather and maintenance issues, respectively, explains the analyst. Higher AISC at Mt Rawdon was driven by reduced volumes and a lower realised copper price.

Morgans expects both production and costs will recover to meet management guidance and retains its Add rating, while its target slips to $3.00 from $3.10.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $1.065
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates INR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett retains its $0.70 target for ioneer, given 1Q results were largely a recap of two recent offtake agreements with Ford and Toyota/Panasonic.

The broker highlights the lithium and boron markets are firing relative to the -30% year-to-date share price slump.

The analyst retains a Speculative Buy rating on the potential for organic growth and upside regarding the US supply chain.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.155
If INR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JBH as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett expects another strong trading update at JB Hi-Fi's AGM.

The broker forecasts like-for-like sales growth of 7.1% for JB Hi-Fi and 8.6% for The Good Guys for the 1Q.

While the analyst raises its FY23 EPS forecast by 3% and then by 1% in subsequent years, the target falls to $45 from $47 on lower peer and market multiples. The Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $42.02 Difference: $2.98
If JBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $47.31, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MHJ as Buy (1) -

Michael Hill's strong AGM trading update has led Citi to upgrade FY23 EPS forecasts for the company by 28% but the broker retains a cautious stance, expecting generally flat sales over the remaining 10 weeks of the December half, and expects this to continue into the June half.

FY24 EPS forecasts are unchanged.

Target price rises 11% to $1.65 from $1.48. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.49
If MHJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley forecasts 42% year-on-year commodity revenue growth for the 1H of FY23, noting that any potential upside for the Commodities and Global Markets (CGM) division will cushion overall profits from softer private markets activity.

The commodity revenue growth has been supported by the US gas price dispersion index, which has increased by more than 80% year-on-year in the September quarter, explains the broker.

The Overweight rating and $231 target are retained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $231.00 Current Price is $165.01 Difference: $65.99
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $192.50, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OZL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley lowers its target for OZ Minerals to $21.80 from $23.10 following September quarter results. The Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Industry view: Attractive.

As noted yesterday: OZ Minerals' September-quarter update disappointed Morgan Stanley, as production fell (a -11% miss) and cost rose (a -13% to -14% miss).

Management guided to higher costs.

The broker observes copper production at Prominent Hill is below year to date run rates, and an improvement will be needed in the December quarter if full-year guidance is to be met.

Target price is $21.80 Current Price is $24.03 Difference: minus $2.23 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.88, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PBH as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett lowers its FY23 and FY24 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -8% and -9% and reduces its target for PointsBet Holdings to $2.20 from $2.80 following a 1Q trading update. The Hold rating is unchanged.

The net win rate was -15% below the broker's expectation on lower turnover due to less promotions and marketing in the US and unfavorable comparisons to lockdown periods in NSW and Victoria.

More positively, despite the lower marketing in the US, net win growth was 78% versus the previous corresponding period. Also, live betting continues to grow, reaching around 59% of online handle in the US segment during the quarter, notes the analyst.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: $0.17
If PBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Pilbara Minerals' September-quarter trading update pleased Citi, lithium production outpacing peers and operational expenditure falling at the lower end of guidance. 

Management observes prices are rising across all chemicals and says customer inquiries remain extremely robust.

Cash rose $784m on the June quarter to $1.4bn, excluding $132m in letter of credit and debt fell to $160m, leaving net cash of $1.2bn. The company plans to announce a capital-management framework in December.

Citi predicts a sharp rise in spodumene prices of 40% and 60% across FY23 and FY24.

The broker downgrades to Sell from Neutral given recent share-price strength. Target price rises to $4.60 from $3.60.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $5.36 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting downside of -18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PLS as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse assesses a solid 1Q operational performance by Pilbara Minerals though realised prices were a -14% miss versus expectations. The company's contract pricing lags peers.

The broker points out the current Pilbara Minerals share price requires higher-for-longer pricing, and in the lithium space Allkem ((AKE)) and Mineral Resources ((MIN)) represent better value.

The Underperform rating is unchanged, while the target rises to $2.60 from $2.30 after allowing for higher production, lower grades and a lower weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $5.36 Difference: minus $2.76 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting downside of -18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Pilbara Minerals' first quarter has been a strong start to the year, with spodumene production and shipments 13% and 6% ahead of Macquarie's forecasts respectively. 

The broker described Pilbara Minerals' lowering of its spodumene concentrate grade to 5.3% as opportunistic, allowing for higher recovery and production. The strong first quarter drove 6% and 4% increases to earnings forecasts for FY23 and FY24 respectively. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.90 from $5.70.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.36 Difference: $0.54
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting downside of -18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PLS as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett highlights a broadly in line operational result from Pilbara Minerals in its September quarter, and impressive final net cash of $1.2bn. The broker expects this net cash position to set the scene for a positive capital management update later this quarter. 

Despite strong leverage to lithium prices, the broker struggles to find justify the stock at current valuation given the lack of firm growth or margin expansion plans beyond 1m tonnes per annum.  

The rating is downgraded to Lighten from Hold and the target price increases to $4.20 from $4.10.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $5.36 Difference: minus $1.16 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting downside of -18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PLS as Sell (5) -

Pilbara Minerals' September-quarter result met UBS at the sales level but fell shy on realised pricing.

UBS now believes the company could outpace FY23 guidance and have upgraded throughput, grade and recovery assumptions in the near term, raising EPS forecasts 9% in FY23; 24% in FY24; and 10% in FY25.

The broker admires the company's operation performance and its ability to deliver volume into a strong market.

While UBS remains bullish on lithium prices, it spies better value in other producers given Pilbara's hefty premium.

Sell rating retained. Target price rises to $3.05 from $2.65.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $5.36 Difference: minus $2.31 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting downside of -18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PWR as Overweight (1) -

Following an update at Peter Warren Automotive's AGM, Morgan Stanley sees business tracking ahead of the broker's existing forecasts.

Ongoing order book growth in the 1Q shows the analyst demand is still outstripping supply, and inorganic growth opportunities are being made easier. 

Management noted it is well placed for any changes in the economic environment. The Overweight rating and $3.10 target are unchanged. Industry View: In Line.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.3
If PWR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RWC as Sell (5) -

Reliance Worldwide's September-quarter update disappointed Citi, strong competition and rising inputs resulting in margin compression. On the upside, the appreciation in the USD cushioned the blow, and EZ-Flo margins remained strong.

Citi expects the competition should ease up in the December quarter but that sales will struggle give limited pricing room and retail destocking. 

The broker notes that pricing and margins are now relatively in line with pre-covid levels, suggesting earnings are more normalised than share prices suggest and suspects the stock may be bottoming.

Earnings (EBIT) forecasts fall -7% and -9% across FY23 to FY25.

Sell rating retained. Target price falls to $3.00 from $3.80.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If RWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RWC as Outperform (1) -

Despite substantial 1Q margin compression, Credit Suisse retains its Outperform rating for Reliance Worldwide, believing margin potential more than offsets moderate volume risk. Sales were in line with the broker's forecast.

Management expects a recovery from the fall of -520bps in earnings (EBITDA) margin in the 1Q. The broker points out the margin comparison to the previous corresponding period is a little unfair, given the 1Q of FY22 was the best quarter of that financial year.

Credit Suisse lowers its FY23 and FY24 profit forecasts by -15% and -14%, respectively, and the target falls to $3.90 from $5.00.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.79
If RWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RWC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie feels the share price reaction to a softer first quarter from Reliance Worldwide may have been overdone. Despite softening volumes, sales increased 23% on the previous comparable period reflecting a 7.9% price rise. 

While volumes did decline across the US, UK and Europe in the quarter, the broker highlighted volume growth in Asia Pacific. The broker expects the macro environment to underpin some sales volatility, but that the company's end markets will remain resilient. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.60 from $5.20.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $1.49
If RWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RWC as Overweight (1) -

Reliance Worldwide provided no FY23 guidance and a 1Q update showed a slowing in revenues and an underlying margin softer than Morgan Stanley had expected. Management expects cost relief and improving margins.

The analyst highlights a contraction in 1Q volumes in the Americas and steady UK plumbing and heating volumes, while Australia experienced volume growth.

The broker retains its Overweight rating and $5.40 target price. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $2.29
If RWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RWC as Hold (3) -

While first quarter results for Reliance Worldwide revealed a 23% uplift in sales from price rises and a contribution from the EZ-Flo acquisition, the result was overall weaker than Morgans expected. Higher costs and lower volumes weighed on margins and earnings.

Management feels margins will improve later in FY23 due to a renewed focus on costs and an easing of input costs from mid-2022 peaks. No guidance was provided, other than for D&A and net interest expense.

The broker lowers its FY23-25 underlying earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -10% and reduces its target to $3.17 from $4.42. Hold.

Target price is $3.17 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.06
If RWC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RWC as Hold (3) -

While first quarter operating margins for Reliance Worldwide were impacted by raw material price increases, Ord Minnett notes commodity costs have subsequently declined.

However, a mid-term margin recovery will be limited, according to the analyst, as volumes are under pressure, particularly in the Americas and the EMEA region.

The broker maintains caution (Hold rating) on the uncertain economic backdrop and an unwinding of inventory by customers. The target falls to $3.40 from $4.50 as EPS forecasts for FY23 and FY24 decline by -10% and -4%, respectively.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.29
If RWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RWC as Buy (1) -

Reliance Worldwide's September-quarter trading update met UBS's forecasts at the top line but margin compression and competition were combining to dilute gains and the broker cuts FY23 an FY24 forecasts accordingly. 

UBS cuts FY23 margin assumptions but believes the September quarter represents the low point for Reliance given input prices are easing more than enough to offset other cost increases such as labour (providing a serious recession does not kick in).

Buy rating retained, UBS believing the company now faces considerable upside, unless a severe downturn occurs. Target price falls to $4.80 from $5.30. 

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $1.69
If RWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGF as Overweight (1) -

While SG Fleet provided no earnings guidance during a 1Q update, Morgan Stanley sees ongoing strength from customer wins, integration and new revenue opportunities.

Management noted Fleet momentum with strong tender activity and the expectation for robust win rates, while leads in Novated were "well" ahead of expectations.

The broker's Overweight rating and $3.40 target are maintained. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $1.83 Difference: $1.575
If SGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SWM as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse leaves its $0.90 target price unchanged, after Seven West Media announced a content agreement with NBCUniversal to underpin content for a new free to air channel called 7Bravo.

The broker prefers to wait to assess if revenue share gains can outweigh an increase in annual content costs of -$45-50m. Outperform.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.445
If SWM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 98% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.68, suggesting upside of 44.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SWM as Neutral (3) -

Seven West Media has confirmed a long-term agreement with NBCUniversal, and Macquarie expects the deal will see Seven West Media meet its target to hold more than 40% market share. 

Commencing in 2023 and expected to coincide with the launch of 7Bravo, the deal is expected to be slightly earnings accretive in FY23. The broker lifts its earnings per share forecasts 36%, 45% and 22% through to FY25, but retains its expectation for a -10% free to air market growth decline. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $0.50 from $0.46.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.045
If SWM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.68, suggesting upside of 44.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

While Morgan Stanley lowers its EPS forecasts following 3Q results, its price target rises to $1.85 from $1.75 after Syrah Resources at Vidalia secured a grant of up to US$220m from the US Department of Energy (DOE).

An agreement with the DOE to secure a US$102m loan for the initial expansion project at Vidalia was announced in the September quarter. The grant to expand capacity was announced on October 20.

The company is currently completing a definitive feasabilty study for the expansion.

The Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley points out premiumisation trends in the US remain intact, after a reviewing Australia wine export data, which showed a -11% overall decline in value, largely driven by China.

Export growth to North America, Malaysia and Thailand offset UK and Singapore weakness, notes the broker.

Morgan Stanley retains its $13.80 target price and Overweight rating for Treasury Wine Estates. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $12.73 Difference: $1.07
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.22, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Australian wine exports fell -13.5% in dollar value in the September quarter on a volume rise of 1.3%.

Despite this, UBS notes Treasury Wine Estates September-quarter commentary has been optimistic, and Citi notes the discrepancy can relate to the timing of shipments and releases, and growth rates in various markets.

More concerning for UBS is the fact that the UK is Australia's largest export market for Australian wine, and the parlous state of cost of living in Britain at the moment is no secret.

Buy rating and $14.75 target price retained. 

Target price is $14.75 Current Price is $12.73 Difference: $2.02
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.22, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Buy (1) -

Westpac has announced notable items heading into its September results and Citi estimates these will result in a $1,519m impost on September-half profit before tax, although the broker says much of this was already announced as a life-insurance loss.

Citi lowers FY22 cash earning by -4%.

Buy rating and $30 target price retained.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $23.90 Difference: $6.1
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.00, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WBC as No Rating (-1) -

As FY22 results for Westpac are due on Monday November 7, Ord Minnett forecasts FY22 cash net profit of $5.277bn (consensus $5.31bn). Cash net profit of $2.182bn is expected for the 2H, along with a  final dividend of $0.62/share.

Ord Minnett is currently under research restriction, so no target and no rating are provided.

Current Price is $23.90. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $26.00, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

UBS reinstates coverage of Whitehaven Coal with a Neutral rating and $10 target price.

The broker admires the company's smoking hot cash flow and record returns, and expects "generational" high coal prices will continue apace as the Ukraine conflict drags on, and low French nuclear power and high gas prices skew the energy market, not to mention the impact of poor weather Down Under on coal production.

UBS expects the company with build both Vickery and Winchester South.

The broker also expects the AGM will consider buybacks.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $10.36 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.18, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WOW as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett now prefers Coles Group over Woolworths Group.

As a result, the target for Lighten-rated Woolworths Group is lowered to $32.20 from $34, while the broker's rating for Coles rises to Hold from Lighten. 

By comparison to Woolworths, the analyst sees better sales momentum, less downside risk to consensus earnings forecasts and a fairer current valuation multiple for Coles.

The broker is cautious on the overall outlook for the grocery space, despite believing risks are now more reflected in valuations. There's considered to be downside risk to consensus earnings, following an inflection point reached in the FY22 reporting season.

Target price is $32.20 Current Price is $33.38 Difference: minus $1.18 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.69, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources