Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates ALL as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett puts Aristocrat Leisure at the top of its picks for the gaming sector and raises the rating to Buy from Accumulate. Target is $32.45.

The company remains the land-based market leader in North America while Australasian slot expenditure is expected to stay weak. Nevertheless, the company's expansion into casual/social gaming puts it to the fore.

Target price is $32.45 Current Price is $24.21 Difference: $8.24
If ALL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.24, suggesting upside of 33.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

The company has indicated that discussions are ending regarding the negotiation of distance-based tolling and longer-term toll escalation for the Dulles Greenway. This is consistent with Morgan Stanley's expectations for no real toll increases on the freeway over the longer term.

Separately, the broker envisages downside risk to traffic volumes in the near term, associated with the US government shutdown that has dampened activity in the Washington DC area.

Equal-weight maintained. Target is $6.66. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $6.66 Current Price is $6.39 Difference: $0.27
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.09, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

December quarter production was robust and beat Macquarie's expectations, as did costs. Production at Hera was 25% above estimates and costs were 46% better because of higher base metal production and sales revenue.

The broker maintains an Outperform rating and $0.95 target.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.15
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ANN as Neutral (3) -

Under different circumstances today's update ahead of the February reporting season would have resulted in Credit Suisse reducing its profit numbers by -4%, but with the company having accelerated its buyback program in the past six months this now leads to an increase by 4%.

This still places the broker at the low end of guidance and on own assessment some -2% below market consensus. The benefit from recent easing in raw material prices won't be seen until late in H2, point out the analysts.

Credit Suisse finds the balance sheet is strong and overall risks seem fairly balanced on a twelve months view. Target $23.50 (unchanged). Neutral.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $23.90 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If ANN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.89, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates ANN as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Deutsche Bank has a mixed outlook for Australian healthcare companies and expects lower growth in Australian hospital and GP markets. The broker has a positive outlook on the global plasma, OSA and hearing implant markets.

Those with exposure to global markets have a better outlook, in the broker's view, although this is already largely priced in, as valuations are at the upper end of historical ranges.

The broker upgrades Ansell to Buy from Hold. Target price improves to $29.78 from $27.25.

Target price is $29.78 Current Price is $23.90 Difference: $5.88
If ANN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.89, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Buy (1) -

December quarter production was slightly weaker and there were a number of items that will affect profit in the first half. Citi downgrades underlying estimates for earnings per share in FY19 by -5%.

Guidance for production in FY19 is unchanged, except copper, which is upgraded 2%, because of the retention of Cerro Colorado.

Citi retains a positive view on the outlook and maintains a Buy rating and $38 target.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $32.60 Difference: $5.4
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.52, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Management has been talking about one-offs impacting but Credit Suisse analysts go straight to the core of the matter: BHP needs a strong H2 to meet its full year guidance, with the analysts pointing towards iron ore and coal in particular.

Neutral rating retained, as well as the $34 price target, while earnings estimates at the EBITDA level have been reduced by some -6%. The analysts do see upside potential risk to their DPS forecasts, in line with the recent track record. For now, however, DPS forecasts have been lowered in line with EPS reductions.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $32.60 Difference: $1.4
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.52, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates BHP as Sell (5) -

Deutsche Bank lowers earnings forecast by -4.7% after the December quarter update. First half outages have raised unit cost forecasts, while full year guidance remains unchanged.

Deutsche Bank maintains a Sell rating and $28 target.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $32.60 Difference: minus $4.6 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.52, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

December quarter production was broadly in line with forecasts. Macquarie observes earnings upgrade momentum is strong, largely on the back of buoyant iron ore and coking coal prices, and there is potential for additional capital management over FY19.

The broker reduces earnings forecasts, nonetheless, to incorporate lower first half price realisation and a number of one-off items. Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $38 from $39.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $32.60 Difference: $5.4
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.52, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -

Output in the December quarter was in line with Ord Minnett's forecast as better petroleum output offset lower coal production. FY19 cost guidance is under review, following production interruptions in the first half, and the broker lowers underlying net profit forecasts by -5% to reflect this.

Hold rating maintained, as no material share price catalysts are expected to emerge. Target is reduced to $35 from $36.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $32.60 Difference: $2.4
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.52, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Buy (1) -

All divisions, besides metallurgical coal, reported lower production in the December quarter. UBS, while disappointed, acknowledges this stems from numerous events, including the WA train derailment, fires at Spence and Nickel West and a plant outage at Olympic Dam.

Despite the weaker quarter, BHP has retained production guidance across all divisions except copper, revising copper higher now that Cerro Colorado is no longer being sold.

UBS maintains a Buy rating and $35 target. A number of one-off items are expected to affect first half earnings and cash flow. The broker looks for an interim dividend of US$0.53 per share and underlying earnings of US$3.86bn in the first half

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $32.60 Difference: $2.4
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.52, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BOQ as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

The latest APRA data show Bank of Qld's home loan book contracting in the three months to November. Loan repricings announced earlier this month will go some way to providing an offset, Morgans notes.

Yet now that the St Andrew's sale is off, the broker is no longer expecting a special dividend. Morgans does not see any earnings growth over the forecast period and thus downgrades to Hold from Add. Target falls to $10.40 from $11.30.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $10.17 Difference: $0.23
If BOQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.26, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BXB as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse has adopted the view that pallet margins in the Americas will have bottomed out in H1 of FY19. In addition, the analysts expect the company's interim result to be accompanied by an announcement on Brambles exiting IFCO.

CS holds a fair value valuation of $11.50, alongside an Outperform rating. No changes were made to forecasts.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $10.68 Difference: $0.82
If BXB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.16, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CCL as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie believes valuation support is emerging following the underperformance in the share price recently, and upgrades to Neutral from Underperform.

Australian beverages are still under pressure and management expects 2019 to be another "transitional year". Macquarie believes more money will need to be spent to meet growth targets. Target is raised to $8.28 from $8.26.

Target price is $8.28 Current Price is $8.44 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If CCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.40, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the investment thesis and upgrades valuation by 11%. Estimates include FY19 earnings growing at 10% amid upside risk to growth in assets under management.

As the valuation backdrop is likely to remain supportive in the near term, the broker retains an Outperform rating. Target is raised to $8.04 from $7.27.

Target price is $8.04 Current Price is $7.81 Difference: $0.23
If CHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.83, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DMP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie suspects the negative sentiment regarding Australian franchisee profitability has been overstated and the market is discounting the long-term opportunity for the Australian model to be replicated in Europe.

While growth rates of previous years may no longer be delivered, the broker argues this no longer needs to be the case, following a meaningful de-rating in valuation. Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $54 from $61.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $45.17 Difference: $8.83
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $47.99, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DXS as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie reviews its stance on direct office markets and its investment thesis for Dexus, heading into the first half results. Strong rental growth in last few years is expected to underpin growth.

Market conditions are expected to soften from 2022 as major projects seeking pre-commitments may target tenants in existing stock and affect the outlook.

As the share price is trading largely in line with valuation, Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to $11.51 from $11.06.

Target price is $11.51 Current Price is $11.26 Difference: $0.25
If DXS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.01, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DXS as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS upgrades to Neutral from Sell and raises the target to $11.17 from $9.39. The broker had expected office supply would pick up more quickly and there was downside risk to bullish rental expectations.

UBS now expects supply to remain constrained amid another good year for rental growth in Sydney. UBS is also attracted to the low gearing and balance sheet flexibility of Dexus.

Target price is $11.17 Current Price is $11.26 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If DXS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.01, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers the second quarter production report a key catalyst, which should help solidify the emerging view that price realisation is improving. The broker envisages re-rating potential following confirmation that this is occurring.

Overweight rating and $5.05 target maintained. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $4.69 Difference: $0.36
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GMG as Neutral (Re-initiation of coverage) (3) -

Credit Suisse stopped updating its views on Goodman Group in March last year, at that time the rating was Neutral alongside a $8.24 price target. Today, the broker resumes coverage with an unchanged Neutral rating but the price target is now set at $10.84.

The analysts remain of the view Goodman Group is a quality company with near-term catalysts, but the strong share price rally ahead of today's re-initiation has kept the rating in neutral territory, the analysts explain.

The company is expected to continue enjoying favourable industry trends, supporting the favourable growth outlook.

Target price is $10.84 Current Price is $11.72 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.69, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes global demand for logistics and capital underpin Goodman Group. The company appears well supported by its land bank and balance sheet, enabling it to ride through the cycle and create value on a medium-term basis.

The broker maintains an Outperform rating and increases the target by 11.2% to $12.62.

Target price is $12.62 Current Price is $11.72 Difference: $0.9
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.69, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GPT as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie assesses the growth outlook as solid, with gearing potentially declining to less than 20% and putting the business in a good position to capitalise on the next cycle.

The broker forecasts 2019 growth of around 5%. As well, a boost should be forthcoming from the sale of its 50% stake in the MLC centre (A-grade Sydney offices).

The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $5.95 from $5.47.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $0.37
If GPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.52, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GPT as Neutral (3) -

UBS reviews its modelling for office rents and upgrades estimates to reflect ongoing improvement. The broker looks for comparable operating income growth from office versus retail and the disposal of the MLC asset in 2019.

The focus will also be on the retail re-developments and urban renewal. Neutral rating maintained. Target is raised to $5.60 from $5.20.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $0.02
If GPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.52, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HVN as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

There are structural threats from online and a cyclical slowdown in housing, Macquarie acknowledges, but the international & property business, around 50% of operating earnings (EBITDA), is likely shielding the downside.

The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral, contending the stock is cheap. Target is steady at $4.10.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $0.7
If HVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.61, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IDR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie forecasts upside risk to valuations, noting strong re-valuations in suburban office and industrial assets over recent months. The broker also believes, with Growthpoint ((GOZ)) holding an 18% stake there is corporate support.

The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral and raises the target to $2.85 from $2.58.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.16
If IDR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.73, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LLC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The further provisions being undertaken in the Australian engineering business have resulted in a significant de-rating of the share price.

Macquarie observes, while risks continue to exist around completing underperforming projects, the current share price is implying negative value for the construction business.

The broker believes there is enough going on to have confidence in the company, and suspects engineering will be labelled non-core at the upcoming results.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $15.15 from $15.08.

Target price is $15.15 Current Price is $12.05 Difference: $3.1
If LLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.37, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNK as Buy (1) -

Citi makes changes to estimates to incorporate the 44.2% stake in PEXA, while deferring the impact of negative federal budget changes, which appear unlikely to go through on July 1 as initially intended.

The broker expects ongoing growth in synergies from Superpartners. The stock offers potential growth at a reasonable price, in the broker's view, despite the risks surrounding Brexit. Buy rating and $9.05 target maintained.

Target price is $9.05 Current Price is $7.13 Difference: $1.92
If LNK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.44, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LYC as Buy (1) -

Production and revenue in the December quarter were in line with expectations. Items outside of management's control such as rare earth market pricing and the new requirement from the Malaysian government to export waste remain headwinds.

UBS calculates that the cost of exporting waste, while significant, is not a terminal deterrent to an investment. The main risk now is the necessary approvals being granted by September for this waste export deal to occur.

Buy rating maintained. Target is $2.90.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $1.32
If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -

While residential earnings represent around 32% of group EBITDA at the moment, Macquarie notes Mirvac has a clear strategy to shift the business to 85-90% passive/rent collecting earnings.

Macquarie expects Mirvac will be able to maintain an above-sector distribution growth profile by raising the pay-out ratio to match the percentage of passive earnings.

Outperform rating is reiterated and the target raised to $2.71 from $2.57.

Target price is $2.71 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.44
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

Taking into account the impact of the discount for under-30s, as well as the impact of the downgrading of coverage, Citi suspects the company's effective rate increase of 3.3% is likely to be below claims inflation.

Citi reduces estimates for earnings per share in FY19 by -6%. Neutral rating and $2.70 target maintained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.59 Difference: $0.11
If MPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MTS as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie accepts the outlook is still challenging and FY20 growth is hampered by the loss of the Drakes contract.

Still the recent de-rating of the share price means the broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperform, given the improving valuation. Target is steady at $2.41.

The broker notes, despite the difficult trading conditions, the company has done well on costs, although the gains in this area appear to be coming to an end.

Target price is $2.41 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.74, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie suspects National Australia Bank will be unable to sustain its elevated pay-out ratio. The broker downgrades earnings growth forecasts and lowers the target to $25.50 from $28.50.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform, given potential capital concerns following the announcement of NZ capital rules.

Healthy dividends, which should be sustained inside a lower growth environment, should still provide support for the sector at current levels.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $24.46 Difference: $1.04
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.48, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

Citi downgrades FY19 estimates for earnings per share by -7% to reflect the weak performance in global and domestic equities. The broker also incorporates the company's approved April 2019 rate increases.

Citi finds it difficult to estimate the impact of the under-30s discount on the effective rate increase and, given nib has historically had younger members on average, suspects the impact is likely to be greater than the -21 basis points being cited by Medibank Private ((MPL)) and BUPA.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $5.70 from $6.45.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: $0.42
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.73, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates OSH as Neutral (3) -

It appears the December quarter production report slightly missed expectations at Credit Suisse, but the analysts are more cautious because they continue to forecast a delay in FEED due to complex negotiations concerning PNG LNG, plus the house view is for lower LNG spot prices ahead, which doesn't help either.

Lower oil/LNG prices weigh on forecasts and push back the valuation a little bit; hence the new price target sits at $7.40 (down from $7.83). Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If OSH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.53, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OSH as Outperform (1) -

Production in the December quarter was weaker than Macquarie expected. The broker expects LNG volumes will recover over 2019.

Importantly, 2019 will be the year for major de-risking of projects in both PNG and Alaska. Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $9.15 from $9.50.

Target price is $9.15 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: $1.65
If OSH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.53, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OSH as Buy (1) -

The PNG LNG project is now running sustainably above nameplate while crude oil production ramps up after the earthquake.

Ord Minnett expects the focus will shift to development milestones, in particular the finalisation of fiscal terms for PNG LNG and front end engineering and design (FEED) for Alaska.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $8.50 from $8.70.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: $1
If OSH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.53, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OSH as Neutral (3) -

2019 production guidance was below expectations. UBS did not anticipate as much downtime would be called in 2019, given maintenance works were completed in 2018 when the plant was shut following the earthquake.

No new material information was provided on PNG expansion or Alaska. UBS suspects risks of further delays in PNG expansion are heightened, given a number of pre-FEED works are still to be finalised.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $8.20 from $9.45.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: $0.7
If OSH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.53, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PPC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

As the company's earnings are solely leveraged to the residential market, Macquarie believes there is a risk that earnings and margins decline.

The buyback provides support but the broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. The target is reduced by -28% to $1.06 to reflect the medium-term outlook for residential earnings.

Target price is $1.06 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.01
If PPC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse found the performance throughout the December quarter was pretty much in-line, with the analysts observing management's guidance for the second half has remained unchanged.

The analysts note the balance sheet remains strong. Outperform rating retained, alongside an unchanged price target of 57c.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.19
If PRU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.57, suggesting upside of 50.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

December quarter production was softer than Macquarie expected. Sissingue was affected by lower grades, falling behind schedule after heavy rain, while Edikan sustained low recoveries and stoppages.

The company reports production has improved over the current quarter, thus far, and continues to advance Yaoure. Outperform rating and $0.50 target maintained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.12
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.57, suggesting upside of 50.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates RMD as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Deutsche Bank has a mixed outlook for healthcare, being positive on the global plasma, OSA and hearing implant markets and expecting slower growth in Australian hospital and GP markets.

Companies with exposure to global markets generally have a better outlook, although this is largely priced into valuations. The broker downgrades ResMed to Hold from Buy. Target is raised to US$123 from US$122.

Current Price is $16.56. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $15.82, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SDA as Neutral (3) -

The company underperformed in the second half of 2018, UBS observes. Some headwinds have been resolved as the company has also finalised the renewal of the Carnival contract.

Still, the broker has become more cautious about the outlook in 2019, given a lower oil price, flat deepwater rig count and a more muted outlook regarding US oil services & drilling.

The company has downgraded the second half revenue outlook for its energy vertical to US$82-84m. UBS recognises the stock appears inexpensive but, absent any corporate catalysts, believes a slower energy recovery will continue to weigh.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $3.20 from $4.50.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.28
If SDA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.66, suggesting upside of 25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SGM as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank was disappointed with the first half update, which implies operating earnings (EBIT) declined to around $50m in the second quarter. This comes despite initiatives by management.

North America and SA recycling were significantly below the broker's estimates, as increased competition and efforts to protect volumes resulted in margin compression.

Deutsche Bank maintains a Hold rating. Target is $10.50.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.13 Difference: $1.37
If SGM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.86, suggesting upside of 29.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SHL as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank has a mixed outlook for healthcare, being positive on the global plasma, OSA and hearing implant markets and expecting slower growth in Australian hospital and GP markets.

Companies with exposure to global markets generally have a better outlook, although this is largely priced into valuations.

Buy rating maintained for Sonic Healthcare. Target is reduced to $24.85 from $29.56.

Target price is $24.85 Current Price is $22.88 Difference: $1.97
If SHL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.43, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Resume Coverage with Neutral (3) -

Citi likes the company's long-term growth prospects and management's ability to drive operating performance. However, the broker does not envisage a margin of safety for investors if growth disappoints relative to expectations.

This concern is exacerbated by the potential for more onerous east coast gas reservation policies from a Labor government or the ACCC.

The broker resumes coverage with a Neutral rating and $6.22 target and believes investors should wait for cheaper entry points.

Target price is $6.22 Current Price is $5.95 Difference: $0.27
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.91, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SUL as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Credit Suisse analysts simply cannot believe the present share price accurately reflects the outlook for this company, suggesting things are probably a lot less bad as suggested by how low the share price has fallen.

Hence the upgrade to Outperform from Neutral. Target price does fall to $7.75 from $8.39 on downgraded forecasts. The announcement that Anthony Heraghty is the new CEO is considered a potential circuit breaker to negative sentiment.

Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $0.57
If SUL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.89, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes the appointment of Anthony Heraghty to succeed Peter Birtles as CEO will allay investor concerns regarding a significant re-basing of earnings, since he is currently in the business and was largely responsible for the Macpac acquisition.

Equal-weight rating maintained, given the consumer environment is weakening and despite the current cheap valuation. Target is $7.40. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $0.22
If SUL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.89, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUL as Accumulate (2) -

Super Retail is due to report its first half result on February 14 and Ord Minnett expects net profit to be up 9.5% to $81.3m, because of robust growth from the automotive division and improvements in leisure and sports.

The broker also welcomes the internal appointment of Anthony Heraghty to succeed Peter Birtles as CEO, as it reduces the risk of a change to the three-year targets that were announced in May 2018.

Accumulate rating maintained along with the $9.50 target. The broker believes valuation support has emerged, given the significant share price decline.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $2.32
If SUL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.89, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUL as Buy (1) -

The company has appointed Anthony Heraghty to succeed Peter Birtles as CEO from March 31, 2019. UBS is positive about the appointment but highlights there was no trading update regarding Christmas, which suggests the outcome was not materially different to expectations.

While consumer conditions are tough, the broker believes this is more than priced into the stock, which screens attractively relative to the discretionary retailer coverage. Buy rating and $8.65 target maintained.

Target price is $8.65 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $1.47
If SUL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.89, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Sell (5) -

Citi believes Treasury Wines should deliver strong earnings growth in FY19, given a better vintage and the fact its wines are being directed to the most lucrative markets, such as China.

However, the broker expects EBITS growth will step down to 13% in FY20 from 26% in FY19. Sell rating and $14.50 target maintained.

The broker notes in the US the company's market share has fallen while, in Australia, volume share has grown but pricing has dropped.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $15.58 Difference: minus $1.08 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.41, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

Wine Australia has reported that exports to China rebounded in the December quarter, up 26%, after falling -20% in the September quarter. Morgan Stanley suspects the earlier Chinese New Year and re-stocking after the launch of Penfolds in October assisted.

This also indicates continued strong demand for premium Australian wine. The broker observes TWE shares have now fallen -17% since August, largely because of concerns about weaker Chinese trading.

The broker acknowledges the market needs to re-set expectations but believes the business is well placed.

Overweight. Industry view: Cautious. Price target $17.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $15.58 Difference: $1.42
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.41, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates URW as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie considers the 8% distribution yield and supportive valuation, as well as the development pipeline, compelling. Concerns exist around gearing and the integration of Westfield but the broker believes these are captured in the share price.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $13.59 from $16.33, to reflect an increase in cap rate expansion.

Target price is $13.59 Current Price is $11.76 Difference: $1.83
If URW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.30, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates URW as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett incorporates downgraded capital growth forecasts for retail property in the UK and Europe, following a challenging fourth quarter.

The broker believes the retail challenges will depress investor expectations of future rental growth.

This leads Ord Minnett to lower the target to $13 from $15 and downgrade the rating to Accumulate from Buy.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.76 Difference: $1.24
If URW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.30, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WGN as Outperform (1) -

And while the company continues issuing profit warnings (prior in early November) Credit Suisse analysts lower forecasts, reduce their price target to $3.70 from $4.10 but stick with the Outperform rating.

The analysts remain of the view that timing of projects (or more accurately: delays in timing) and investing in growth are known inputs, which supports the ongoing constructive view for the company.

Credit Suisse remains comfortable (hopeful?) management will be able to achieve the company's growth potential, with group EBIT at risk of doubling once projects start running.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.91
If WGN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.06, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WGN as Underperform (5) -

The company's trading update has included a downgrade to the full year outlook. Capital investments aimed at countering the challenges to growth, along with delayed projects, are limiting profits.

Macquarie maintains an Underperform rating and reduces the target to $2.05 from $2.60.  FY19 and FY20 estimates for earnings per share are reduced by -13.6% and -2.0% respectively.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If WGN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.06, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WGN as Add (1) -

Wagners has cut FY19 profit guidance, down to $35-38m from a prior $39m, due to the slow start-up of some current projects and the need to upsize its business in order to be able to tender for larger projects, the broker reports. The broker has cut forecasts and its target to $3.44 from $4.11.

The broker nevertheless sees FY19 as the low point, given an absence of large projects, wet weather impact in the first half, the need to invest for growth and the ramp-up of the fixed concrete network. FY20 earnings will be supported by the SE Queensland pipeline project. Add retained.

Target price is $3.44 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.65
If WGN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.06, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources