Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AIA as Buy (1) -

It is Citi's initial conclusion Auckland International Airport today released a rather weak ("soft") July 2025 traffic update featuring a -1% decline in passengers YoY.

International PAX growth was the drag with international PAX including transits down -3% YoY, while domestic PAX growth grew at a modest 1%.

Importantly, the broker points out, international traffic weakness could be explained by lower seat capacity (-2% YoY) and tougher comps in July 2024 (with school holidays timing later last year and World Choir Games).

Citi explains it likes this stock for its medium-term earnings growth. The analysts are looking forward to new FY26 earnings and PAX guidance at the result next week on 21 August. Buy. Target NZ$8.90.

Current Price is $6.98. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Neutral (3) -

Ampol announced the acquisition of EG Australia's site network for $1.1bn, with consideration of -$800m in cash, $250m equity to the vendor, and a contra on $50m in payables to Ampol.

The add-on will bring around 500 sites, 2.3bn litres of fuel volume, and shift Ampol from a fuel supplier to a site operator, allowing it to set prices and run stores, Macquarie highlights.

Synergies of $65m–$80m are flagged to be in place by the end of FY27, with the transaction to be completed by mid-2026, subject to ACCC approval.

Macquarie makes no changes to its EPS estimates yet. Target price lifts 2.4% to $28.15. The analyst believes the EG acquisition will put the company back on a structural growth path in non-refining.

Target price is $28.15 Current Price is $27.07 Difference: $1.08
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.56, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses Ampol's proposed acquisition of EG Australia as positive for the stock as it will lead to improvement in earnings mix.

The price is seen as reasonable and funding plan as measured, with execution risk regarded as manageable.

The deal is targeted for mid-2026 completion, subject to ACCC approval. No changes to forecasts yet.

Overweight. Target price $30. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $27.07 Difference: $2.93
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.56, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett assesses Ampol's proposed acquisition of EG Australia for -$1.1bn as a strategically strong move, given the diversification to the retail side of the business.

Retail derived earnings is expected to rise to 65% of group post-acquisition with brand name moving to corporate-owned network from franchise model.

The network scale is expected to support Foodary expansion and U-Go rollout, with potential also seen for additional cost savings.

EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 3.1% and by 9.4% for FY27. Deal completion is targeted for mid-2026, subject to regulatory approvals.

Buy. Target increases to $36.60 from $35.00.

Target price is $36.60 Current Price is $27.07 Difference: $9.53
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.56, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMC as Buy (1) -

For the fourth quarter in a row, Amcor has revealed "soft" 4Q25 results, assesses Citi, and a lighter FY26 outlook.

Earnings (EBITDA) of US$789m missed the US$836m expected by consensus, as volumes fell -1.7% year-on-year on North American weakness across both segments, explains the broker.

FY26 guidance is for EPS of US80-83c (versus US82.9c consensus) and free cash flow of US$1.8-$1.9bn, assuming US$260m in pre-tax synergies, capex of -US$850-$900m, interest expense of -US$570-$600m, and a 19-21% tax rate.

The broker notes management will conduct a strategic review of US$2.5bn in revenue, including US$1.5bn from North American Beverages and US$1bn from smaller businesses, with synergy targets unchanged.

Flexibles EBIT rose US$47m to US$450m, aided by Berry’s US$50m contribution but offset by -1.5% volume decline, explain the analysts. Rigids earnings rose US$129m to US$204m, with Berry’s US$150m contribution offset by -2% volumes and higher North American beverage costs.

Citi highlights the need for clarity on the timing of volume improvement in Flexibles, cost synergy realisation, and regional volume outlook.

The broker lowers its target to $15 from $18. Buy.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $15.06 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.03, suggesting upside of 25.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMC as Overweight (1) -

At first glance, Morgan Stanley's assesses Amcor's 4Q25 result as soft with EBITDA -4% lower vs consensus on lower volumes. FY25 EPS missed the guidance midpoint by -2.5% and FY26 EPS guidance fell short by -1.5%.

FY25 sales of U$15.009bn met expectations and leverage was 3.5x vs 3.1-3.2x targeted for FY26.

On the positive side, FY26 capex guidance of -US$850-900m was lower than the consensus of -US$1.065bn.

Overweight. Target price $20.31. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $20.31 Current Price is $15.06 Difference: $5.25
If AMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.03, suggesting upside of 25.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMC as Buy (1) -

On first take, Amcor reported FY25 EPS of USD71c, a miss on consensus at USD72c, due to weakness in North America in 4Q25, UBS details. FY26 EPS guidance of USD80c–USD83c meets UBS' estimate at USD81c and consensus at USD83c.

Flexibles earnings (EBIT) for 4Q25 missed UBS' estimate by -5% and consensus by -2%, with lower volumes and unfavourable price/mix offset by cost performance.

Rigids earnings (EBIT) also missed by -3% versus UBS and -11% on consensus, impacted by lower volumes and higher costs for North America beverage.

Group volumes fell by -1.7% as expected, and Amcor reconfirmed the Berry merger synergies of -US$650m target and in line for -US$260m for FY26.

Target price is $18.25 Current Price is $15.06 Difference: $3.19
If AMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.03, suggesting upside of 25.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

ANZ Bank's 3Q capital and asset quality update was broadly in line with Citi's forecasts, with CET1 at 11.94% meeting expectations and asset quality remaining benign.

Loan growth was around 2% quarter-on-quarter across segments, observes the broker, while deposit growth was stronger than expected in the institutional bank. Deposit growth was down in retail, partly due to seasonal factors, explain the analysts.

Citi sees limited investor reaction given the steady balance sheet and asset quality, with attention now shifting to the new CEO’s anticipated strategy update ahead of the FY25 result.

Neutral. Target $29.50.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $32.50 Difference: minus $3 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.00, suggesting downside of -18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Sell (5) -

UBS's initial response to ANZ Bank's quarterly update points to the absence of any evidence there's some kind of re-basing happening.

It appears the bank remains on track to meet consensus forecast for FY25, the broker highlights.

Sell rating retained on valuation. Target $26.50.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $32.50 Difference: minus $6 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.00, suggesting downside of -18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASK as Buy (1) -

Citi retains its $1.73 target and Buy rating for Abacus Storage King following FY25 results.

A summary of yesterday's research by the broker follows.

At first glance, Abacus Storage King reported funds from operations and distribution which met both Citi and consensus expectations.

Marginally weaker storage revenue was offset by more robust financing costs.

Management's top end of FY26 guidance is in line with expectations, with investors to remain focused on M&A potential as the stock is trading around a circa -8% discount to the revised NTA of $1.74 due to a -10bps decline in cap rates to 5.45%.

Target price is $1.73 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.14
If ASK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.64, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ASK as Hold, Medium Risk (3) -

Abacus Storage King's FY25 FFO of $85m met Shaw and Partners' forecast but the FY26 distribution outlook of 6.2c was lower than the forecast of 6.4c.

However, it is in line with previously stated intention of 90-95% payout range, and the broker reckons it may be because a more expansion acquisition is considered in FY26.

The share price performance is dependent on the takeover offer from a consortium of Ki Corporation and Public Storage, and whether National Storage REIT ((NSR)) will use its blocking stake. If the deal falls through, the broker expects the price to decline to $1.30-1.35.

Hold, Medium Risk. Target unchanged at $1.65.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.06
If ASK meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.64, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

Upon further analysis of FY25 results, Citi decides to lower its target for ASX to $67.10 from $68.80 and retains a Neutral rating.

The broker notes elevated cost growth from required regulatory responses and points out that futures volumes are at record levels, which may make sustaining growth more challenging despite current strong activity.

FNArena's summary of yesterday's research by Citi follows.

ASX reported growth in FY25 net profit after tax of 7.5%, which, on first glance, was in line with Citi's forecast and consensus.

Improved cost controls, 30bps better than guidance, offset a slight miss on revenue.

Cash equities and an ongoing recovery in derivative volumes boosted market activity, with tech and data revenue coming in slightly better than expected due to robust demand for data across equity and derivatives.

Management reconfirmed costs guidance for FY26 and capex. Cost growth is flagged at 14%–19%, and capex is guided to -$170m–$180m.

Dividend payout ratio at 85% as expected. 

Target price is $67.10 Current Price is $70.39 Difference: minus $3.29 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $62.96, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

ASX reported in line FY25 results, according to Macquarie, with markets revenue up 10.7%, listings down -0.1%, technology and data up 8%, and securities and payments revenue up 7.4%.

Capex guidance for FY26 is unchanged at -$170m–$180m, and FY27 guidance was provided by management at -$160m–$180m, with the aim to start reducing capex thereafter.

Macquarie lowers its FY26 EPS forecast by -4%, including the previously announced ASIC inquiry costs.

Neutral rating unchanged. Target $64.50, from $65.50 previously.

Target price is $64.50 Current Price is $70.39 Difference: minus $5.89 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $62.96, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Underweight (5) -

ASX’s FY25 underlying profit was broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations, though reported profit was around -0.5% below consensus.

The broker notes growth in listings revenue was offset by softer derivatives and lower futures volumes, while technology costs rose due to ongoing platform investments.

FY26 guidance points to mid-single digit revenue growth,suggest the analysts, with capital expenditure of -$90m-$100m and costs increasing in the low- to mid-single digits, consistent with prior expectations.

Morgan Stanley leaves its FY26 earnings forecasts largely unchanged, with some adjustments for volume mix and expense growth.

The broker lowers its target price to $54.05 from $57.10 and retains an Underweight rating. Industry View: In-line. 

Target price is $54.05 Current Price is $70.39 Difference: minus $16.34 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $62.96, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ASX as Hold (3) -

Morgans notes ASX's FY25 result met its forecasts and the consensus but costs, mostly ASIC-related, will be a drag on FY26.

Revenue grew 7% y/y in FY25 due to strong markets performance and a 13% lift in net interest income. For FY26, ASIC inquiry-related cost is estimated at -$25-35m, resulting in total expense growth of 14-19%.

Among the negatives in FY25 result were soft new listings environment and lower revenue from softer commodities trading, commentary suggests.

FY26-28 EPS forecasts downgraded by -1% to -5% on higher costs, which together with conservative margin estimates, resulted in a cut in target price to $67 from $72.

Hold retained.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $70.39 Difference: minus $3.39 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $62.96, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Sell (5) -

The day after, UBS has made only minimal changes to its forecasts. The broker's target price is reduced to $62.15 from $63.65.

UBS sees very little valuation appeal. Sell. Yesterday's initial response:

UBS, upon initial assessment, comments the ASX has released an in-line FY25 result, but slightly softer average futures fees and retained cost growth outlook suggest slight downside risk to the FY26 EPS outlook.

The broker argues the exchange is still facing uncertainty over recurring cost increases into FY27 post the ASIC Inquiry plus significant risks regarding the CHESS replacement delivery and related capex.

Sell. Target lowered to $62.15 from $63.65.

Target price is $62.15 Current Price is $70.39 Difference: minus $8.24 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $62.96, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BBN as Buy (1) -

Upon initial glance, it is Citi's observation Baby Bunting's FY25 Pro-forma net profit of $12.1m is higher than consensus' $11.2m forecast.

Commentary suggests the 8% 'beat' appears to be driven by tax and to a lesser extent net interest. It was also towards the upper end of the guidance range of $10m to $12.5m.

No dividend was declared while consensus was expecting to see 0.9cps paid out.

Plenty of positive and equally so on the negatives to highlight, it seems. Regarding the latter, Citi points out FY26 capex guidance of -$30m to -$35m is materially above consensus' -$20m estimate.

Capex will be funded by operating cash flows. The broker suggests part of this may be due to the accelerated refurbishment strategy. The retailer will also embark on an ERP/POS re-platform.

All in all, the broker argues today's result provides incrementally more confidence around the company's turnaround prospects.

Target $2.41. Buy.

Target price is $2.41 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.56
If BBN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting downside of -19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BVS as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Bravura Solutions' FY25 revenue beat expectations by 3% and EBITDA by 13%, but the FY26 guidance disappointed investors, leading to a post-result share price fall.

Shaw and Partners believes the guidance for FY26 revenue to be in line with FY25 appears conservative and sees an upside risk. The broker's own forecast was lower than implied guidance, resulting in a 4% upgrade to $260m.

FY26 cash EBITDA forecast lifted by 23% and FY27 by 19% on operational efficiency assumption, and long-term revenue growth forecast cut to 6% from 7%.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at $2.90.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.99
If BVS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CGF as Buy (1) -

In a preview of Challenger's upcoming FY25 earnings on Aug 19, Bell Potter lifted its target price to $9.25 from $7.80, noting that even a small increase in annuities take-up rates could materially boost the company's longer-term growth.

Guidance infers net profit after tax growth of 10% at the midpoint for FY25, and the analyst anticipates ongoing development in Lifetime and Japan annuity sales, while widening short-term credit spreads could impact near-term asset performance.

Bell Potter tweaks its EPS estimates up by 3% for FY25 and 4.8% for FY26. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $9.25 Current Price is $8.30 Difference: $0.95
If CGF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.62, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COF as Neutral (3) -

UBS's first assessment is Centuria Office REIT's FY26 guidance is well below forecasts, missing UBS's estimate by -9% and consensus by -7%.

The broker believes the REIT's payout remains too high, its balance sheet is too highly geared.

Commentary suggests downtime at 201 Pac Hwy and 818 Bourke are keeping the challenge alive for the REIT.

Target $1.20. Neutral.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If COF meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COH as Buy (1) -

UBS's initial response is Cochlear's FY25 and FY26 guidance both underwhelmed. The broker does believe revenue guidance looks conservative given Service revenue challenges weighed on the FY25 performance.

The broker had higher expectations for Acoustics sales and the gross margin.

Buy. Target $325.

Target price is $325.00 Current Price is $305.99 Difference: $19.01
If COH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $290.98, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DXI as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Dexus Industria REIT reported a slight beat on funds from operations at 18.2c for FY25, some 0.5% above Bell Potter's estimate and 1.5% above consensus.

FY26 guidance was set at 17.3c funds from operations, below both the analyst and consensus expectations by around -6%, with a dividend guidance of 16.6c.

Bell Potter lowers its funds from operations estimates by -8% for FY26 to -5% for FY28 due to dilution from the sale of Brisbane Technology Park, an updated bank bill swap rate assumption, and the impact of recent half-year earnings.

Due to the stock's relative underperformance versus the XJP REIT index, Dexus Industria is upgraded to Buy from Hold. The target is lifted to $3.10 from $2.95.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $0.27
If DXI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -

UBS has increased its long-term gold price forecast by A$850/oz to A$4,000/oz with the analysts identifying higher production costs and continued strong demand for the safety of the yellow metal as key drivers.

Shorter term, UBS sees a peak of A$5,500/oz (or higher) within 12 months.

Regarding ASX-listed gold exposures, the broker notes guidance season has seen the local sector underperform global peers, because of higher costs and ongoing very elevated mine development capex, not to mention production downgrades in some cases.

For Evolution Mining, the broker's price target has improved to $7.40 from $6.60. Sell.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $7.94 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting downside of -11.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMD as Buy (1) -

UBS has increased its long-term gold price forecast by A$850/oz to A$4,000/oz with the analysts identifying higher production costs and continued strong demand for the safety of the yellow metal as key drivers.

Shorter term, UBS sees a peak of A$5,500/oz (or higher) within 12 months.

Regarding ASX-listed gold exposures, the broker notes guidance season has seen the local sector underperform global peers, because of higher costs and ongoing very elevated mine development capex, not to mention production downgrades in some cases.

For Genesis Minerals, the broker's price target has improved to $5.80 from $5.20. Buy.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.22 Difference: $1.58
If GMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.65, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Citi’s May Goodman Group Jobs tracker, in collaboration with its Research Innovation Lab, shows increased hiring activity across the company's development centres, particularly for data centre roles in Europe, the US, and Australia.

The broker views this as a potential leading indicator of further data centre developments, supporting Goodman’s $10bn pipeline of projects commencing before June 2026.

Recent job postings have been observed in Amsterdam, Luxembourg, Australia, and Belgium, with existing live roles in Amsterdam, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Paris, and Belgium.

While data from Japan is limited due to reliance on search firms, Citi expects progress there alongside activity in Hong Kong and Australia.

The broker anticipates that the 21 August results could provide positive updates on leasing, yields, project commencements, and fully fitted developments, reinforcing momentum in Goodman’s pipeline.

Target $40. Buy.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $35.82 Difference: $4.18
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.25, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GOR as Neutral (3) -

UBS has increased its long-term gold price forecast by A$850/oz to A$4,000/oz with the analysts identifying higher production costs and continued strong demand for the safety of the yellow metal as key drivers.

Shorter term, UBS sees a peak of A$5,500/oz (or higher) within 12 months.

Regarding ASX-listed gold exposures, the broker notes guidance season has seen the local sector underperform global peers, because of higher costs and ongoing very elevated mine development capex, not to mention production downgrades in some cases.

For Gold Road Resources, the broker's price target has remained unchanged at $3.25. Neutral.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If GOR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GOZ as Buy (1) -

Growthpoint Properties Australia delivered a stable FY25 operational performance, assesses Citi, This outcome was supported by a long-lease portfolio (with mainly government and large corporate tenants), while expanding its funds management platform.

The broker highlights office occupancy of 92% with a 5.5-year weighted average lease expiry (WALE) and a 7.0% cap rate, with upside from leasing vacant space.

Industrial occupancy is 98% with a 5.8-year WALE and a 6.1% cap rate.

Funds management assets under management stand at $1.4bn, up 20% in revenue year-on-year, highlights Citi, with 11 funds and $37m co-investment, and similar FUM creation expected in FY26.

Citi lifts its FY26 and FY27 funds from operations (FFO) forecasts slightly on resilient performance and higher funds management fees.

Unchanged Buy rating and $2.60 target.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $0.06
If GOZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOZ as Neutral (3) -

Growthpoint Properties Australia reported FY25 funds from operations down -2.5%, but this came in above guidance by 1.3% and exceeded Macquarie's expectations.

FY26 funds from operations guidance met both the broker's and consensus outlook at 22.8c–23.6c, with a dividend of 18.4c, which is lower than forecasts.

Management is looking to new fund launches in FY26, with additional growth in assets under management offering upside to Macquarie's earned transaction fees. Every circa $400m equates to circa 0.5% pickup in funds from operations.

The analyst tweaks funds from operations forecasts by 0.9% for FY26 and 3% for FY27.

No change in Neutral rating. Target slips by -0.8% to $2.38.

Target price is $2.28 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If GOZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HDN as Hold (3) -

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT reported in line funds from operations at 8.8c, which met both Bell Potter and consensus expectations. The dividend announced was 8.6c.

Key factors include around 20% of the lease book expiring in FY26 (9%) and FY27 (11%), which coincides with the vintage of Masters leases expiration and should underpin above-average re-leasing spreads. Low double-digit re-leasing spreads have been achieved thus far in FY26.

The dividend payout ratio will transition to 100% of funds from operations, from around 90%-100% previously.

Bell Potter tweaks its funds from operations forecasts by -4% for FY26 and 5% for FY27 due to updated assumptions on bank bill swap rates, the latest 2H25 earnings, and possible acquisitions/disposals.

No change in Hold rating, and the REIT is considered a stable proposition for investors with an attractive 6.6% yield. The target lifts to $1.40 from $1.35.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.1
If HDN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HDN as Neutral (3) -

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT announced FY25 funds from operations of 8.8c, which met Macquarie's forecast. FY26 guidance stands at 9c versus the broker's 9.2c and consensus at 9c.

The analyst sees upside to management's guidance for FY26, with the REIT well positioned for lower interest rates as it is only 50% hedged.

Tenant health remains robust, and lower interest rates should be supportive for tenants. Five assets were sold in line with book values, and proceeds are being used to acquire three neighbourhood assets, a land parcel adjoining an existing asset, and to fund the development pipeline.

The REIT has a -$650m-plus development pipeline with $170m in active projects. The broker tweaks its funds from operations lower to align with guidance.

Target price is raised to $1.24 from $1.15. Macquarie likes the stability of the portfolio and the REIT's compound growth in funds from operations, expected at 4.6% from FY25–FY28.

Target price is $1.24 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If HDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HDN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes HomeCo Daily Needs REIT's FY25 results met consensus, and FY26 FFO guidance was in line, though DPS guidance was slightly below.

Interest rate hedging fell to 50% in July from 80% in June, and the broker reckons debt cost headwind will be small at worst in FY26 and possibly favourable.

Gearing at 35% was in the mid-point of target range but broker cautioned capital recyling may be necessary to ensure it doesn't get uncomfortable in the light of investment opportunities and capex.

Two new unlisted retails funds have been set up by HMC Capital ((HMC)), where the REIT's commitment is a total of -$44m.

Equal-weight. Target unchanged at $1.34. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.34 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.04
If HDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HDN as Neutral (3) -

On further inspection, UBS retains its $1.40 target price and Neutral rating.

The analyst credits management for achieving solid performance in recent years with higher interest rates, but notes the attractive valuation and dividend yield is largely discounted and well understood.

*****

At first peek, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT reported in-line FY25 funds from operations, with FY26 guidance meeting consensus and 2% above UBS estimates on lower costs. An 8.5c dividend was pre-announced.

Net disposals came in at -$70m as expected over FY26, with the strategic goal to fund developments with capex. The analyst anticipates more sales will be required in FY26/FY27, but this could be ameliorated if valuation improvements are better than expected.

Given the context around the perceived challenges for HMC Capital ((HMC)), UBS believes investors like the stability and yield of this REIT.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.1
If HDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IPG as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter restates the key cyclical forces that are generating growth for IPD Group. Commercial and data centre markets represent around 48% of revenue, with building approval values in commercial having improved since February. Data centre building approvals have also seen a big gain in momentum in the recent June quarter.

At circa 35% of revenue, industrial and infrastructure are also showing positive trends. Industrial building approval values are up 21% in June on a year earlier, following four months of declines since Nov 2024. Activity levels in water and waste remain strong, up 32% in terms of work done in the March quarter.

A rise in electrical components in the June quarter compared with the prior one infers an inflection point and a positive sign for component demand. Buy rating reiterated. Target rises to $4.30 from $4.10. The stock is viewed as "undervalued".

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.64 Difference: $0.66
If IPG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Buy (1) -

Lendlease Group has received final Federal Government heritage approval for its -$1.3bn Gurrowa Place development in Melbourne.

This comprises over 2,200 build-to-rent apartments and student accommodation in a roughly equal split, observes Citi. Construction is scheduled to commence in 2026, with specialist developer Scape planning an additional $0.4bn in student accommodation.

Citi notes this approval, alongside the recent win at 175 Liverpool Street in Sydney, secures the company's medium-term development earnings pipeline.

The broker maintains a Buy rating and $6.80 target.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.43 Difference: $1.37
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.61, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LM8 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Metallurgical test work at Lunnon Metals' Lady Herial ore at St Ives Gold Plant showed excellent gold recovery rate of 94.6%, with a coarse gold component.

Shaw and Partners notes the result is line with the June scoping study, and is among the final steps before ore purchase agreement is completed with Gold Fields. This will mean a transition to cash flow generation.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 60c.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.34
If LM8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGR as Neutral (3) -

In first impressions of today's FY25 results, Citi observes Mirvac Group's operating earnings of $474m were at the lower end of guidance and slightly below the broker's expectations.

FY26 EPS guidance of 12.8-13.0c also came in modestly under consensus.

The broker expects the share price to soften given earnings at the low end of guidance and softer FY26 guidance.

Residential settlements of 2,122 were ahead of consensus. Strong sales momentum from new Sydney project launches and a pick-up in MPC sales, explain the analysts, supported by an additional 279 of conditional sales.

Residential margins fell to 14.9% in FY25 on higher construction costs, but management expects 18-22% margins in FY26 as weaker-margin projects are largely absorbed.

The investment portfolio saw slight cap rate compression to 5.75%, offsetting softer office valuations, with positive re-leasing spreads across all sectors, highlights Citi.

Neutral. Target  $2.30.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.32, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MGR as Neutral (3) -

It is UBS' initial conclusion that Mirvac Group has released an in-line FY25 performance today, but with question marks around accounting impacts from impairments.

Resi/commercial development missed the broker's forecast by -16% but then the burden from interest expenses also proved -16% lower than assumed.

Neutral. Target $2.32.

Target price is $2.32 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.01
If MGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.32, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MP1 as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi raises its target for Megaport to $15.95 from $9.00 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy.

The analysts raise their FY25-27 revenue forecasts by 2-8%, citing stronger cloud migration activity, expanding data centre footprint, product investment, and potential AI-driven demand from FY27.

The broker sees multiple tailwinds, including multi-cloud adoption, new product rollouts, share gains from PacketFabric, and the closure of Telstra Group's ((TLS)) Programmable Network.

While AI is expected to drive growth from FY27, Citi lowers its FY25-26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -5% due to anticipated higher investment needs.

Hiring activity is rising, caution the analysts, with headcount up 27% and job listings at their highest since January 2023, suggesting upside risk to operating cost forecasts.

Target price is $15.95 Current Price is $15.01 Difference: $0.94
If MP1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.21, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Neutral (3) -

UBS has increased its long-term gold price forecast by A$850/oz to A$4,000/oz with the analysts identifying higher production costs and continued strong demand for the safety of the yellow metal as key drivers.

Shorter term, UBS sees a peak of A$5,500/oz (or higher) within 12 months.

Regarding ASX-listed gold exposures, the broker notes guidance season has seen the local sector underperform global peers, because of higher costs and ongoing very elevated mine development capex, not to mention production downgrades in some cases.

For Northern Star Resources, the broker's price target has improved to $19.95 from $16.65. Neutral.

Target price is $19.95 Current Price is $18.00 Difference: $1.95
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.35, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

Folowing yesterday's FY25 result for Orora, Citi lifts its FY26 earnings (EBIT) forecast by around 2%, with lower underlying performance more than offset by a mid-single-digit currency benefit.

Higher interest costs largely keep profit forecasts unchanged. After rolling forward valuation and applying higher market multiples, the broker raises its target price to $2.35 from $2.05. Neutral rating unchanged.

A summary of the broker's initial research follows.

On first take, Citi notes Orora reported an earnings (EBIT) beat by 4% against consensus forecasts. Saverglass was positive, with earnings (EBIT) better than expected by 7% due to a rise in margin of 150bps.

Revenue continued to experience challenges from volumes and a lower mix; cans were in line, as was Gawler.

Management's FY26 guidance also met expectations for EPS, with lower net profit after tax due to higher interest costs, but underpinned by a better than anticipated share buyback.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.13
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.34, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -

Orora reported better than expected FY25 underlying net profit after tax, according to Macquarie, some 4% above the broker's estimate.

Saverglass had a 9% sequential improvement in volumes over 2H25. Combined with good cost management, it beat expectations, but the mix (wine/champagne) was a negative.

Cans achieved steady growth with volumes up 6%, and the analyst forecasts volume growth of 4% for FY26, which meets the long-term average. The outlook for Gawler is subdued, with FY26 guidance at the lower end of the range.

Macquarie lowers its EPS estimate by -4% for FY26 due to higher interest costs and lowers FY27 by -2% on higher interest and reduced growth assumptions.

Outperform retained. Target rises to $2.40 from $2.36.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.18
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.34, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORA as Hold (3) -

Morgans assesses Orora's FY25 result as better than expected. with EBIT from continuing operations of $262m beating its forecast and the consensus by 3%. 

Saverglass unit was the highlight as volumes jumped in 2H due to diminishing destocking and on gains in the wine and champagne categories. The broker reckons further volume growth is possible in FY26.

The company is cautiously optimistic about FY26 earnings growth, and the broker is forecasting 6% EBIT growth. Overall, the broker lifted FY26-28 EBIT estimates by 0-2%.

Hold. Target rises to $2.30 from $2.03 on earnings upgrades and a lift in multiple used in valuation.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.08
If ORA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.34, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

UBS assesses Orora delivered a solid FY25 result, with earnings (EBIT) beating expectations by 3% on stronger Saverglass performance and Cans volume growth at the upper end of long-term averages.

While destocking in Saverglass appears largely complete and 2H25 volumes improved 9% sequentially, the broker cautions global wine and spirits demand remains weak, reflecting ongoing cyclical and structural pressures.

For FY26, Saverglass earnings is guided broadly in line with FY25 as volume growth and cost savings are offset by mix shifts and higher depreciation, while Cans earnings is expected to rise on added capacity.

UBS lifts FY26 earnings forecasts on higher Saverglass earnings and favourable FX, though higher interest guidance is partly offset by a lower tax rate.

With leverage reduced to 0.7 times following the North American Packaging Solutions divestment, UBS sees capacity for further buybacks but maintains a Neutral rating given subdued end-market conditions. The target price increases to $2.40 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.18
If ORA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.34, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Following FY25 results for Origin Energy, Citi decides to maintain its $13 target and Buy rating.

The analysts lift FY26 and FY27 core profit forecasts by around 9% and 5%, respectively, driven by higher gas margins from contract repricing.

A summary of yesterday's research by the broker follows.

Upon initial assessment, it is Citi's view Origin Energy has delivered a "broadly in-line FY25 result". Commentary highlights stronger Energy Markets performance was offset by higher corporate costs and Octopus EBITDA.

Operating cash flow of $425m beat both forecasts by Citi and consensus. The broker states FY26 guidance in aggregate for available line items was better than expected at the midpoint.

APLNG production guidance is in-line, with unit capex/opex circa 5% above the broker's estimate at the midpoint.

Also noted: progress continues on the 1.5GW Yanco Delta project, with environmental approvals resubmitted. Management maintains support for the legal separation of Octopus/Kraken, the broker highlights.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $12.59 Difference: $0.41
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.57, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Origin Energy reported FY25 underlying net profit after tax growth of 26%, which beat consensus by 1% and missed Macquarie's forecast by -4%. A 60c dividend met expectations and was flat on the prior year.

The full-year results had few surprises, with the quarterly re-setting APLNG expectations. Energy market guidance of 10% was better, supported by a robust 4Q result, while Octopus was a bit weaker due to one-off write-offs, but customer numbers continued to be a driver of value.

Macquarie expects both electricity and gas gross margins to be above medium-term ranges and lowers its FY26 EPS estimate by -4.3% for Octopus, while raising FY27 by 1.4%.

No change to Neutral rating. Target rises 3.7% to $11.34.

Target price is $11.34 Current Price is $12.59 Difference: minus $1.25 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.57, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes Origin Energy's FY25 EBITDA of $3.41bn missed its forecast by -1% but was in line with consensus.

Final dividend of 30c met the broker's forecast but was marginally higher than 29.5c consensus.

The FY26 guidance for energy market EBITDA of $1.4-1.7b was broadly in line with the broker's estimate of $1.589bn and the $1.524bn consensus. Capex guidance was also in line.

Underweight. Target price $9.80. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $12.59 Difference: minus $2.79 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.57, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PME as Hold (3) -

Pro Medicus resumed revenue growth over 30% in FY25 at 32%, which Bell Potter considers a good barometer of demand, as well as earnings (EBIT) margin expansion by 430bps. Earnings (EBIT) grew 40% on last year.

The analyst states the competition is "asleep at the wheel" and showing no investment or inclination to innovate and address the issue of file transfer speed. Accordingly, Bell Potter believes Pro Medicus will retain price leadership, and the business remains highly scalable.

The company continues to invest in business initiatives including pathology for archiving rather than diagnosis, and a $10m debt facility was provided to 4D Medical ((4DX)), which specialises in pulmonary diagnostics. Cardiology revenue expansion is positive.

Hold rating retained, as the stock's valuation means it is vulnerable to macro shocks like Liberation Day. Target at $320.

Target price is $320.00 Current Price is $315.69 Difference: $4.31
If PME meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $300.27, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PME as Sell (5) -

Pro Medicus’ FY25 result was broadly in line with Citi’s expectations, with revenue up 32%, earnings (EBIT) up 39% and profit up 39%, supported by record $67m in contract wins.

The broker expects FY26 profit growth of 41%, driven by these wins and contained operating cost growth of 16%. North American market share has risen to around 10% from 7% a year ago.

Following its move into Cardiology, the company will launch a Digital Pathology product in Q4 2025, potentially lifting its total addressable market by 10-15%, observe the analysts.

The company is positioning as a platform for AI algorithm commercialisation, explains the broker, with initiatives including a breast cancer detection algorithm, a partnership with Elucid, and collaborations with third parties.

Citi adjusts FY26-27 EPS forecasts by 1% and -7%, respectively, and lifts its target price to $220 from $165, retaining a Sell rating.

Target price is $220.00 Current Price is $315.69 Difference: minus $95.69 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $300.27, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PME as Neutral (3) -

Pro Medicus' FY25 earnings beat both Macquarie and consensus expectations, with lower than anticipated employee costs boosting earnings (EBIT) margin.

FY25 revenue was down -2% versus forecast, but earnings (EBITDA) were boosted by a 74% margin improvement, around 100bps ahead of expectations. For FY26, the analyst lifts forecast EBIT margins to circa 77% from 73%, supported by recent contract wins and 19% growth in employee costs.

The company raised its US radiology market size expectations to 670m scans from 650m scans (2%-3% annual growth), with around an 85% addressable market. Macquarie's forecasts assume market share of circa 15% by FY30 and 30% by FY35.

Target price raised to $321.60 from $258.90. No change in Neutral rating. Macquarie raises its EPS forecasts by 2% for FY26/FY27 on changed operational assumptions and higher margin expansion.

Target price is $321.60 Current Price is $315.69 Difference: $5.91
If PME meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $300.27, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PME as Overweight (1) -

Pro Medicus' FY25 result exceeded Morgan Stanley’s growth expectations, with the pipeline signaling faster top-line growth in FY26.

The broker highlights two new cardiology contracts and the Q4 pathology launch as adding upside risk to revenue, alongside strong adoption potential from AI use cases, sub-specialisation, and remote reading.

Management's ongoing premium pricing strategy is supported by superior return on investment (ROI) outcomes, with 85% of the US$670m annual radiology market commercially addressable, highlight the analysts.

The broker points out the lifetime value of forward contracted revenue of over $958m across five years equates to around 80% of the company's market cap, underlining earnings visibility.

Morgan Stanley lifts its FY26-28 earnings forecasts by around 1%, rolls forward its valuation, and raises its target price to $350 from $320, retaining an Overweight rating. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $350.00 Current Price is $315.69 Difference: $34.31
If PME meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $300.27, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PME as Trim (4) -

Morgans describes Pro Medicus' FY25 result as strong but mixed, and broadly in line with expectations. Revenue fell slightly short of the broker's forecast and consensus, but net profit beat on lower tax expenses.

It was a record year with seven new contract wins totaling at least $520m and forward contracted revenue over five years is now more than $948m.

The broker marginally lowered near-term contract contribution to reflect implementation timing but this was offset by model roll-forward. 

Target lifted to $285 from $280. Trim retained.

Target price is $285.00 Current Price is $315.69 Difference: minus $30.69 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $300.27, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNI as Re-initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has re-initiated coverage of Pinnacle Investment Management with a Buy rating and target price of $25.50. The most recent coverage was done under white label.

FY25 result showed strong growth in AUM, up 63% to $179.4bn, and the broker forecasts 17% growth in FY26. 

The broker reckons the company is well-positioned to growth earnings strongly due to positive outlook for inflows, outperformance track record and buoyant financial markets.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $22.74 Difference: $2.76
If PNI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.03, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PRU as Buy (1) -

UBS has increased its long-term gold price forecast by A$850/oz to A$4,000/oz with the analysts identifying higher production costs and continued strong demand for the safety of the yellow metal as key drivers.

Shorter term, UBS sees a peak of A$5,500/oz (or higher) within 12 months.

Regarding ASX-listed gold exposures, the broker notes guidance season has seen the local sector underperform global peers, because of higher costs and ongoing very elevated mine development capex, not to mention production downgrades in some cases.

For Perseus Mining, the broker's price target has improved to $4.85 from $4.15. Buy.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: $1.29
If PRU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

UBS attended Rio Tinto's Sydney sell-side roundtable, the last before CEO Jacob Stausholm's departure on August 25.

Key takeaways: the iron ore price at around US$105/t remains "healthy," as there is limited investment in industry growth outside of Simandou, with ongoing strong Asian demand.

The miner was surprised by the US exemption of copper cathode from S232 tariffs, and the US remains attractive even as Comex and LME spreads widen.

Aluminium is expected to develop over time and generate "decent returns," while Rio remains focused on lithium strategy.

No change to Neutral rating and $115 target. No change to UBS' earnings estimates.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $113.45 Difference: $1.55
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $115.33, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

UBS has increased its long-term gold price forecast by A$850/oz to A$4,000/oz with the analysts identifying higher production costs and continued strong demand for the safety of the yellow metal as key drivers.

Shorter term, UBS sees a peak of A$5,500/oz (or higher) within 12 months.

Regarding ASX-listed gold exposures, the broker notes guidance season has seen the local sector underperform global peers, because of higher costs and ongoing very elevated mine development capex, not to mention production downgrades in some cases.

For Regis Resources, the broker's price target has remained unchanged at $4.60. Neutral.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.18
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes South32 will cease operations at Mozal Aluminium in March 2026 after failing to secure sufficient and affordable electricity, reducing FY26 production guidance to 240kt as the site winds down.

The broker highlights a -US$372m impairment in FY25, with its FY26 earnings forecast cut by -11% and FY27 by -18% due to lower guidance and the removal of production in FY27.

Citi maintains a Neutral rating and reduces its target by -20c to $3.20.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.3
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.47, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Due to the impasse in power negotiations, South32 is placing Mozal into care and maintenance from early 2026 and has impaired the asset by -US$372m, down to a carrying value of US$68m.

Operations are expected to stop in 3Q2026, with production guidance for Mozal set at 240kt, which is South32's share. Output is below consensus by -32% and -33% below Macquarie's forecast.

The analyst lowers its EPS forecast by -2% for 2026 and by -3% to -5% over the medium term.

No change in Outperform rating. Target slips -6% to $3.20.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.3
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.47, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

South32 confirmed low confidence in securing sufficient, affordable power for Mozal beyond March 2026, and expects to place it on care and maintenance at the end of current power agreement.

From this month, the company will limit investment, stop pot relining and stand down contractors. An impairment of -US$372m will be recognised in FY25 financial result.

Guidance for Mozal production cut to 240kt compared with Morgan Stanley's forecast of 370kt. The impact on EBITDA is expected to -US$80m in FY26 and -US$210m in FY27 if shutdown lasts for entire FY27.

Overweight. Target retained at $3.45. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.55
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.47, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

South32 announced an impasse has been met for the 64%-owned Mozal smelter over power with the grid operator and the Republic of Mozambique's government. The miner has decided to stop producing at the end of March 2026 and move to care and maintenance from April.

An impairment charge of -US$372m, which aligns with UBS' previous estimate, will be taken, and the analyst removes Mozal from earnings forecasts from April 2026.

UBS lowers its EPS forecasts by -1% for FY26 and -7% for FY27.

Neutral rating retained. Target price lowered to GBP1.39 from GBP1.45 and to $2.90 from $3.10.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.47, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SRV as Buy (1) -

UBS observes another robust result from Servcorp, with FY25 profit before tax rising 23% and inferring a beat of 14% for 2H25 to the top end of guidance. Revenue growth was 11% against last year, an improvement from FY23 growth of 8% and FY24 at 7%.

The analyst believes FY26 guidance is conservative for profit before tax at $72m–$76m, an upgrade of 3% and 9% respectively to prior expectations, as it infers revenue growth of 4%–10%, potentially well below FY25.

Total offices are flagged to grow 8% in FY26 across the Middle East, Thailand, and Australia.

UBS lifts its EPS forecasts by 7%–8% for FY26–FY27, which are lower than the profit forecasts due to a share count correction.

Target price rises to $7.20 from $6.30. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.41 Difference: $0.79
If SRV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SSR as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS has increased its long-term gold price forecast by A$850/oz to A$4,000/oz with the analysts identifying higher production costs and continued strong demand for the safety of the yellow metal as key drivers.

Shorter term, UBS sees a peak of A$5,500/oz (or higher) within 12 months.

Regarding ASX-listed gold exposures, the broker notes guidance season has seen the local sector underperform global peers, because of higher costs and ongoing very elevated mine development capex, not to mention production downgrades in some cases.

For SSR Mining, the broker's price target has improved to $27.05 from $19.80. Buy (upgrade from Neutral).

Target price is $27.05 Current Price is $15.77 Difference: $11.28
If SSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

At FY25 results, Suncorp Group's $400m buyback exceeded market expectations, with Citi noting its strengthened CAT budget provides solid protection despite lacking IAG’s reinsurance cover.

The group has nudged FY26 underlying margin expectations to the top half of its 10-12% range due to a $100m resilience addition, leading the broker to cut FY26 EPS forecasts by -3%. Margins would be above 12% without this top-up.

Citi sees a higher likelihood of reported margins exceeding underlying margins, with significant weather events needed to breach the CAT allowance.

Management is targeting mid-single-digit organic growth in FY26, driven by stronger commercial momentum, remediation in intermediated platforms, and repricing in fleet and compulsory third party insurance.

Citi maintains a Neutral rating and trims its target price to $22.10 from $22.40.

Target price is $22.10 Current Price is $20.77 Difference: $1.33
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.65, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie singled out the on-market share buyback of up to $40m, which will be in place from Sept 2025 through FY26, as a positive for Suncorp Group's FY25 earnings announcement, with a further $300m in FY27.

The insurer is planning to run "perpetual" buybacks for around 10% of total group earnings in the future.

FY26 gross written premium guidance was for mid-single digit growth, slightly above peers, and Suncorp is expected to achieve stronger volume growth than listed competitors as the premium rate environment slows.

Underlying insurance margin guidance at 10%-12% for FY26 compares to Macquarie's 11.5%, with a level of caution around natural hazard adjustments.

Macquarie lifts its EPS estimates by 9.1% for FY26 and 9.8% for FY27, arising from lower reinsurance costs than previously expected. Target raised to $20.60 from $19. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $20.60 Current Price is $20.77 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.65, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -

Suncorp Group's FY25 cash profit matched Morgan Stanley’s forecast and was 1% ahead of consensus, with an underlying margin of 11.9% at the top of guidance.

Growth was below consensus but still ahead of Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)), highlights the broker.

Consumer gross written premium (GWP) rose 8.2%, commercial up 6.9%, and New Zealand broadly flat in Australian dollar terms. FY26 guidance is for a margin at the upper end of 10-12% despite a 75 basis point increase in the CAT budget.

The analysts note improved claims handling times, solid pricing covering inflation, and a strong capital position.

A 49c final dividend and $400m buyback were both above the broker's expectations, with excess CET1 capital of around $600m and total excess capital of $1.2bn post-payouts.

Morgan Stanley cuts its FY26-28 cash profit forecasts by -1-2% on the higher CAT budget, partly offset by better growth and yield.

The broker keeps an Overweight rating and eases its target price to $25 from $25.20. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $20.77 Difference: $4.23
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.65, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUN as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans highlights Suncorp Group's FY25 net profit of $1.82bn beat the consensus by 4% due to benefit of $205m from lower natural hazard losses vs allowance.

At the insurance profit line, the result was marginally below expectations but the underlying insurance trading ratio (UITR) came in at 11.9% vs 11.1% the previous year, and at the top end of guidance.

The broker expects further UITR improvement in FY26, lifting cash rate EPS forecasts by 6-7% for FY26-27 on a lift to UITR. The company announced an $400m share buyback.

Incorporating these into the forecasts led to a lift in the target price to $23.42 from $22.89. Accumulate retained.

Target price is $23.42 Current Price is $20.77 Difference: $2.65
If SUN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.65, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

After further analysis of FY25 results, UBS lifts its target for Suncorp Group to $22.75 from $22.50, due to a higher assumed market multiple, and maintains a Neutral rating.

FNArena's summary of yesterday's research by the broker follows.

At first glance, Suncorp Group reported an in-line result for FY25, with 2H25 gross written premium generating 3.8% growth and an announced $400m buyback, likely to be met with a lukewarm response from the market, according to UBS.

Management's FY26 guidance stands at growth in gross written premium in mid-single digits, as pricing dampens alongside easing inflation pressures. The projected expense ratio is in line, and the capital payout is at the mid-point of the 60%–80% range.

CAT budget is flagged to rise by 13.5%, which is slightly above UBS' forecasts and consensus.

The analyst highlights that top-line growth guidance should underpin the outlook for gross written premium and infers general insurance will remain "disciplined" on pricing.

Target price is $22.75 Current Price is $20.77 Difference: $1.98
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.65, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TLS as Hold (3) -

Telstra Group reported underlying FY25 earnings (EBITDA) of $8,621m, which broadly met Bell Potter's estimate and came in at the mid-point of guidance.

Free cash flow after leases was better than anticipated by 2% and viewed as a bright spot at the upper end of guidance. Final dividend of 9c per share as expected.

Management has updated its guidance to include underlying earnings (EBITDA) after lease amortisation, a metric previously excluded. Guidance was set at $8.15bn–$8.45bn after $600m of lease amortisation, in line with expectations.

Bell Potter has lowered its revenue forecasts by -2% for FY26 and 3% for FY27 due to reductions in mobile estimates and the deconsolidation of Versent. Its EPS forecasts are raised around 2% for FY26/FY27 due to the share buyback.

Hold rating remains. Target rises to $4.75 from $4.65.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.85 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLS as Outperform (1) -

Telstra Group reported "noisy" FY25 earnings results, according to Macquarie, with weaker than expected mobile. Postpaid was impacted by one-off items, with net adds of 106k and an underlying churn of 11%.

Two months of price rises in FY26 should provide some revenue tailwinds for mobile services.

Cost outs continued, and the analyst estimates over -$70m from 550 staff layoffs in May and -$380m of opex reduction from the Versent sale to Infosys in 2H26.

Management reported improving productivity across all businesses except fixed wholesale and international, pending completion of the Digicel strategic review.

Macquarie lowers its EPS estimates by -4% for FY26/FY27 due to weaker mobile subs growth. Target price slips to $5.04 from $5.19.

Outperform rating retained, with mid-single digit cash EPS compound growth annually expected.

Target price is $5.04 Current Price is $4.85 Difference: $0.19
If TLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TLS as Overweight (1) -

Telstra’s FY25 result was in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations, with earnings (EBITDA) of $8.6bn, up 4.6% year-on-year and matching consensus.

The broker notes FY26 guidance for earnings (EBITDA- after leases) of $8.2-8.45bn implies growth of 1.6-5.4%, slightly below consensus at the midpoint, leading the analysts to trim FY26-28 forecasts by -1-2%.

Morgan Stanley highlights Mobile and InfraCo growth as key drivers of surplus free cash flow and rising dividends.

Mobile remains the largest contributor to Telstra’s valuation, points out the broker, with an estimated enterprise value of $39bn or around $3.50/share, supported by its No 1 post-paid market share, premium ARPU, and strong margins.

The analysts see new satellite services as both a risk and an opportunity. Dominance here could cement Telstra’s mobile leadership, but losing ground could lead to a de-rating.

Morgan Stanley lowers its target price to $4.95 from $5.00 and keeps an Overweight rating. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $4.85 Difference: $0.1
If TLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLS as Hold (3) -

Morgans assesses Telstra Group' FY25 result as largely in line but FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance at midpoint fell short of consensus by -1.5%.

The company also provided cash EBIT guidance, seeing this as a better measure of free cash flow. The broker believes this could be a tactic to redirect focus away from EPS growth which is likely to be soft.

Expectation for cash EBIT is for 6-10% growth in FY26 following a 10% rise in FY25. Still, the broker cut statutory EPS forecasts on higher D&A, and wonders if there's higher capex too or possibly cost improvements.

Hold. Target unchanged at $4.70.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.85 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLS as Accumulate (2) -

Telstra Group's FY26 earnings guidance missed market expectations, though  FY25 earnings and the final dividend were in line with forecasts by consensus and Ord Minnett.

Management announced a $1bn share buyback starting September 9.

The analyst expects market EPS downgrades of -4–5%, while its own changes are more modest at -1.1% for FY26 and an increase of 0.5% for FY27.

Telstra’s FY30 targets (which the analyst assesses are on track) include $10bn in operating earnings, over $20bn in balance sheet headroom, a mid single-digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in cash earnings and higher dividends.

Mobile earnings growth in the mid single-digits and significant cost savings, including a projected -20% reduction in its 31,000 full-time equivalent workforce through AI-driven efficiencies, are key drivers, suggest Ord Minnett.

The broker estimates at least $5bn of the headroom will be available for capital management before FY30, with buybacks preferred over special dividends due to likely franking constraints.

Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating and $5.00 target price.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.85 Difference: $0.15
If TLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes Telstra delivered an in-line FY25 result, with underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $8.6bn up 5% year-on-year, supported by cost reductions and stronger-than-expected Enterprise fixed margins. The broker's DPS forecasts remain relatively unchanged.

Mobile earnings also rose 5%, although subscriber growth was impacted by the 3G shutdown, MOCN launch, removal of idle SIMs, and price increases, explains the broker. These factors lead to expectations of subdued mobile growth into 1H26.

Management will undertake a buyback of up to $1bn and keep executing on the Connected F30 plan.

FY26 guidance for cash EBIT growth of 5%-10% is reaffirmed, with UBS’s forecast at the upper end.

The broker trims its FY26-27 forecasts marginally citing slower mobile revenue growth and Starlink D2C licensing costs, partly offset by higher Enterprise fixed margins.

The target price increases to $4.80 from $4.60. UBS maintains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.85 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TPW as Overweight (1) -

Following deeper analysis of Temple & Webster's FY25 results, Morgan Stanley notes four tailwinds for the outlook but considers the 15% terminal margin target as optimistic.

Tailwinds include macro shifts, opportunity in WA, brand momentum and home improvement trend. Reasons for caution include volatile sales growth, margin moderation and risk of de-rating.

EPS forecast for FY26 cut by -21% and for FY27 by -14%. 

Overweight. Target rises to $32 from $28 on change in valuation methodology. Industry View: In-Line.

****

In a first look report, the broker noted Temple & Webster's FY25 revenue missed consensus by -1% but EBITDA outperformed by 5% as margin rose to 31.7% from 31.6%, beating guidance.

The broker highlights strong start to FY26 sales, up 28% y/y until August 11, noting consensus for FY26 sales growth is 22%.

FY26 EBITDA margin guidance at midpoint was marginally soft vs consensus but long-term margin target of 15% is higher than consensus of 13.2%.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $28.35 Difference: $3.65
If TPW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.76, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TPW as Sell (5) -

UBS has a positive view on Temple & Webster as far as the operational side is concerned, but also believes yet another re-rating has pushed valuation into lofty territory.

Hence, while the broker's price target improves to $17.70 from $15.50, the rating remains on Sell.

As far as FY25 is concerned, the broker spotted "accelerating top-line growth ahead of an anticipated improving macro backdrop", which has added to future growth forecasts.

All in all, UBS labels the FY25 release as "slightly softer", but complemented with a stronger trading update.

From yesterday:

UBS' snapshot of Temple & Webster's FY25 results showed a robust end to the period, with June sales up 28% on the prior year.

FY25 revenue was a slight miss by -1%, with earnings (EBITDA) a beat by 5%, and inventory notably lower than the analyst's forecast at $29m versus $32.9m.

The start of FY26 is strong, with first six-week sales up 28%, and margin is expected to stay within the 30%–32% range.

Commentary suggests better operating leverage should assist with a target earnings (EBITDA) margin of 3%–5%. The current buyback will remain, and management confirmed the mid-term $1bn revenue goal.

Sell rated.

Target price is $17.70 Current Price is $28.35 Difference: minus $10.65 (current price is over target).
If TPW meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.76, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VAU as Buy (1) -

UBS has increased its long-term gold price forecast by A$850/oz to A$4,000/oz with the analysts identifying higher production costs and continued strong demand for the safety of the yellow metal as key drivers.

Shorter term, UBS sees a peak of A$5,500/oz (or higher) within 12 months.

Regarding ASX-listed gold exposures, the broker notes guidance season has seen the local sector underperform global peers, because of higher costs and ongoing very elevated mine development capex, not to mention production downgrades in some cases.

For Vault Minerals, the broker's price target has improved to $0.60 from $0.55. Buy.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.17
If VAU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie previews 1H2025 earnings (EBITDA) for Viva Energy with guidance of $300m post adjustments versus the broker's $303m forecast.

At the 2Q update, refining profitability was the main disappointment against consensus and it looks to be a challenging year, with the turnaround at Geelong starting in the current 3Q2025.

Nine new convenience stores were rolled out in 2Q2025, with eleven in train at the end of June. Macquarie lowers its EPS forecast for 2025 by -6% on reduced 1H2025 refining earnings guidance, and by -2% in 2026/2027 on lower shop sales due to the ongoing weakness in tobacco sales.

Target rises by 5% to $2.10. No change in Neutral rating.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: $0.06
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.60, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEA as Buy (1) -

Viva Energy's FY25 underlying net profit and revenue were modestly ahead of Ord Minnett's expectations, supported by membership growth, improving performance from greenfield sites, and stronger technology services.

Management sees “excellent momentum” into FY26 with no current headwinds. June-quarter run rates of $228m revenue and $51m operating earnings reinforce the broker’s positive outlook.

The company will slow capital expenditure on new sites in FY26 to focus on optimising existing assets, expanding its digital management platform across more sites, franchisees, and third-party buyers.

Slowing capex will lift margins, free cash flow, and returns on invested capital, suggests the analyst.

The broker's EPS forecasts rise by 5.9%, 9.6%, and 0.8%, respectively, across FY25–27, increasing the target price to $3.40 from $3.00. Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating, viewing current single-digit valuation multiples as unduly cheap.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: $1.36
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.60, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VGL as Neutral (3) -

Vista International reported 1H25 revenue and pre-forex earnings (EBITDA), which missed Macquarie's forecasts by -4% and -40%, respectively, but were more in line with consensus mean estimates.

Revenue guidance (FY25) was reduced to the lower end of the previous range, down -2%, and annual recurring revenue guidance of NZ$175m-plus was moved to 2026.

Macquarie lowers its EPS estimates by -5% and -3% for FY25/FY26, respectively, on slower cloud migration and reduced terminal total addressable market share.

Neutral rating unchanged. Target set at NZ$3.20.

Current Price is $2.83. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 44.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates VGL as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Vista International's 1H25 revenue of NZ$77m missed Shaw and Partners' forecast of NZ$82m but key cloud metrics surprised to the upside as annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew 13% and recurring revenue rose 11%.

The company's Vista Cloud is attracting lot of demand, exceeding its onboarding capacity and requiring investment into client onboarding and products. The result is an increase of -NZ$15m capex over the next couple of years. 

The company reiterated long-term EBITDA margin target of 33-37% and lifts its ARR goal to NZ$315m from NZ$300m.

Downgrades to FY25-26 forecasts, but target price unchanged at $4.10. Buy, High Risk maintained.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $1.27
If VGL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 44.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VGL as Neutral (3) -

Vista International's interim result proved in line with its margin enjoying benefit from operating leverage, UBS explains, but management is guiding for FY25 EBITDA towards the bottom end of the guidance range (NZ$167m-NZ$173m).

The broker's valuation would have increased if not for the takeover premium that was previously embedded in its target. Hence, today that target drops to NZ$3.65 from NZ$3.90 on the removal of that premium.

Medium-term Cloud demand is increasing, commentary highlights, and Vista International is expected to launch embedded payments later this year with full launch in 2026.

For now, earnings estimates have been lowered.

Current Price is $2.83. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 44.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VNT as Outperform (1) -

Ventia Services has upgraded 2025 net profit after tax growth to 10%-12% from 7%-10% previously, with Macquarie factoring in 12% growth for its forecasts and an inferred 1H:2H split of 47%, similar to 2024.

Revenue for 1H2025 was lower than expected by -1.5% on the prior year, but 2H revenue should advance on a robust recovery in telco as new contracts ramp up. Reduced depreciation and amortisation lowered the quality of the 1H result.

Macquarie points out the stock is a candidate for inclusion in the ASX200 when changes occur on Sept 5.

Outperform rating retained, with the target raised to $5.55 from $5.42 due to Macquarie's lift in EPS forecasts by 0.8% for 2025 and 0.1% for 2026.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: $0.27
If VNT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.15, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VNT as Hold (3) -

Morgans describes Ventia Services' 1H25 result as modest as revenue fell -1% y/y and EBITDA grew 3% y/y, but was due to lower depreciation. The broker reckons the EBITDA margin in defence improved strongly due to exit of low margin contracts.

The company is positive about revenue growth in 2H25 due to strength from recent contract wins in telecommunications. However, the broker sees the defence unit as a drag, especially given its view half of the upcoming $460m/year contract renewals are at risk.

FY25 revenue forecast trimmed by -4% but EBITDA cut by -1% on higher growth margins. EBITDA forecasts remain largely unchanged in FY26-27.

Hold. Target lifted to $5.45 from $4.90.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: $0.17
If VNT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.15, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VVA as Buy (1) -

Viva Leisure's FY25 revenue beat Morgans' forecasts and underlying EBITDA and net profit were broadly in line, also with consensus.

The broker notes 17% organic growth was achieved in FY25 and overall revenue growth was 30%, but underlying EBITDA margin was down -10bps, indicating lack of cost control or dilutive acquired growth. Looking ahead, potential to lift EBITDA is seen as a tailwind.

The broker also highlights record performance in FY26 is a possibility based on 4Q25 run-rate. Minor revisions have occurred to EBITDA forecasts, but net profit forecasts for FY26-27 are lifted on lower net interest estimate.

Buy. Target rises to $1.80 from $1.75.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.35
If VVA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Sell (5) -

Following Westpac's 3Q results, Citi maintains its Sell rating and $28.50 target price.

A summary of the broker's initial research issued yesterday follows.

Citi notes Westpac reported 3Q25 net profit after tax of $1.9bn, which beat both the broker's and consensus expectations by 12% and 14%, respectively, due to better revenue from Treasury & Markets, with costs in line.

Core NIM at 1.85% came in better than anticipated and above Citi's 1.76% estimate.

The analyst notes the market has taken the result well but cautions against assuming the revenue momentum will be maintained into 4Q25.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $36.04 Difference: minus $7.54 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.49, suggesting downside of -17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WBC as Underperform (5) -

Westpac announced a better than expected 3Q25 update, with several factors resulting in a circa 3bps underlying margin beat, according to Macquarie. The headline result also beat consensus expectations.

Factors such as lower liquids, stronger markets income, funding spreads, and the phasing out of investment spending are expected to weaken or reverse in 4Q25.

Investment spending is also anticipated to rise, with the bank committing to the "allocation of additional resources" for Project Unite.

Macquarie raises its EPS forecasts by around 2.5% for FY25–FY27 on improved margin expectations and lower bad and doubtful debt assumptions.

No change to Underperform rating. Target raised 9% to $30 due to EPS estimate changes.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $36.04 Difference: minus $6.04 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.49, suggesting downside of -17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes Westpac's 3Q25 revenue was up 4% vs 1H25 quarterly average and beat its forecast by 4%.

Core net interest margin of 1.85% beat the broker's forecast by 7bps, while net interest margin of 1.99% was 9bps higher.

The broker notes the underlying beat was a result of deposit repricing benefits, steady Australian mortgage margins and better margins in NZ.

Overall, the broker reckons some lumpy items boosted earnings, but the underlying trends also improved.

Underweight. Target price $27.50. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $36.04 Difference: minus $8.54 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.49, suggesting downside of -17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WBC as Trim (4) -

The highlight of Westpac's 3Q25 update was the 7bps lift in net interest margin (NIM) to 199bps, which beat Morgans' forecast of 192bps and the consensus of 190bps.

The broker, however, reckons some of the gains will reverse in 4Q, in particular from liquid assets and Treasury & Markets. Overall, FY25 NIM was upgraded to 195bps from 192bps, with similar lifts in FY26-27.

Credit impairment fell -1bp to 0.05% of gross loans, below expectation of 0.09-0.1%. Net profit rose 8% compared with expectations of declining earnings for 2H.

EPS forecasts lifted by 4-6% across FY25-27 on NIM upgrades and lower credit impairment charges. 

Trim. Target rises to $30.95 from $28.35.

Target price is $30.95 Current Price is $36.04 Difference: minus $5.09 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.49, suggesting downside of -17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WBC as Lighten (4) -

Westpac's June-quarter underlying net profit was in line with Ord Minnett's expectations, driven by strong revenue growth and an unexpectedly high net interest margin (NIM) of 1.99%.

Margin expansion was partly supported by deposit repricing, hedging benefits, and an improved New Zealand home-loan pricing and mix, explains the analyst.

Further contributions came from a slower pass-through of rate cuts, and a strong Treasury and markets contribution, which also lifted non-interest income by 6%, highlights the broker.

Ord Minnett expects some NIM gains to unwind due to higher wholesale funding costs, depositor behaviour shifts, and normalisation in Treasury and markets revenue, but sees a stronger starting margin base.

Operating costs rose/worsened by -3% from the first-half quarterly average due to additional business banker hires and investment in the $2bn UNITE technology platform, notes the broker.  

The analyst's EPS forecasts increase by 4.0%, 6.5%, and 7.4% for FY25, FY26, and FY27, respectively, lifting Ord Minnett's target price to $30 from $27. A Lighten rating is maintained on valuation grounds.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $36.04 Difference: minus $6.04 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.49, suggesting downside of -17.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources