Australian Broker Call

Citi rates CHC as Buy (1) -

In a positive outcome for Charter Hall, suggests Citi, the REIT will be included in the FTSE EPRA NAREIT Index for global real estate at the next rebalancing in September.

Inclusion should result in additional shares being purchased by funds tracking the index, explains the broker.

The Buy rating and $15.70 target are maintained.

Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $15.23 Difference: $0.47
If CHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.45, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CMM as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter observes FY24 Capricorn Metals results were slightly below forecasts at the net profit level and in line for revenue.

Depreciation/amortisating charge came in lower than forecast, with record cashflows despite lower production.

The analyst points to changes in the accounting treatment for hedging which involved the buy-back of the partial hedge, thereby removing all the hedging commitments through FY25.

The company remains one of the lowest cost producers in the gold sector, the broker highlights. EPS forecasts are adjusted for the update, including accrued hedging costs by -29% in FY25 and -5% in FY26.

The target moves to $6.49 from $6.38. Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $6.49 Current Price is $5.55 Difference: $0.94
If CMM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.30, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

While FY24 results for Capricorn Metals didn't alter EPS forecasts by Macquarie, the broker now incorporates a mill expansion at Karlawinda and a notional underground scenario at Mt Gibson. 

These two forecast inclusions result in EPS upgrades of 9% in FY26 and an average of 24% over FY27-FY30. The target rises by 19% to $6.30, and the rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

For Karlawinda, management has commenced a process plant expansion study exploring the potential to increase process
capacity by circa 50% to 6.5-7mtpa.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.55 Difference: $0.75
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.30, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CMM as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett is not fazed by the -16% miss for FY24 profit compared to the consensus forecast, preferring to focus on the growth projects at Karlawinda and Mt Gibson.

Management is examining increased output and a mill expansion at Karlawinda, while a final investment decision (FID) for Mt Gibson is due by mid-2025, highlights the broker.

The Accumulate rating is retained, and the target rises to $6.10 from 5.75.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.55 Difference: $0.55
If CMM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.30, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CRN as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter observes the FY24 guidance revision from Coronado Global Resources with saleable production cut to 15.4-16mt from 16.4-17.2mt, down -7% at the midpoint.

Unit cost guidance shifted up 11% to US$105-US$110/t from US$95-US$99/t. Extremely heavy rains across Curagh delayed pre-strip works and impacted coal production.

As per the broker, management's guidance assumes ongoing above-average rainfall for the balance of 2024 with open cut mines representing around 65% of group saleable production.

The broker adjusts EPS forecast for the guidance update with FY24 EPS estimate turning negative (loss-making).

Target price falls to $1.70 from $1.85. Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.78
If CRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 96.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Due to an outage at Curragh's overland conveyor and inclement Queensland weather, management at Coronado Global Resources has cut 2024 production guidance by -7% with cost guidance also -11% worse.

Site-wide impacts to coal and strip movement have resulted in unutilised processing plant capacity, explains the broker.

Management now assumes additional weather impacts in the 4Q of 2024 given the recent La Nina classification by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

The target falls by -14% to $1.80. Outperform rating unchanged.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.88
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 96.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CRN as Buy (1) -

Following the Curragh conveyor outage and rainfall impacts, explains UBS, Coronado Global Resources has lowered 2024 saleable production guidance by -0.8-1.0mt to between 15.4-16.0mt. Average mining cost guidance also rises by US$10/t to US$105-110/t.

Revised guidance looks fairly conservative and achievable in the broker's view.

On a 12-month view, UBS is positive on the stock and suggest the lower guidance, in combination with metalurigical coal prices falling below US$200/t, represents a buying opportunity for investors.

The Buy rating is maintained, and the target falls to $1.85 from $1.95.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.93
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 101% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 96.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GYG as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

While FY24 results for Guzman y Gomez on August 27 came in above prospectus forecasts due to same store sales growth and proforma EBITDA/network sales expansion, UBS downgrades to Sell from Neutral on valuation.

The target rises to $35 from $31 on the broker's higher earnings forecasts.

Shares have risen by 67% since the June 20 IPO compared to the 2% rise for the ASX200, making the current risk-reward balance unattractive, in the analyst's view.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $37.47 Difference: minus $2.47 (current price is over target).
If GYG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.07, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HLS as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett reviews its investment thesis for Healius following a 50% share price rise since May. That rise is largely based on plans to sell the Lumus diagnostic imaging division, in the broker's view.

The analyst believes selling Lumus would be -13% dilutive to EPS before any share buyback to return cash to shareholders. On the other hand, if management launched a share buyback around the current share price, a transaction would be 11% accretive to EPS.

Given the hurdles to improved performance in the business, the currently elevated valuation multiple cannot be justified, in the analyst's opinion. 

A major improvement in the pathology division’s performance is needed to justify the current valuation, suggests the broker.

The Sell rating and $1.37 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.37 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: minus $0.325 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting downside of -16.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTM as Buy (1) -

In pre-flagged news, notes Citi, Arcadium Lithium will move its Mt Cattlin operation to care and maintenance by mid-2025.

Also, by opting to curtail operations in the interim by discontinuing waste stripping for stage 4A, management expects to increase net cash flow by US$75-100m in 2024/25, explains the broker.

The Buy rating and $6.50 target are maintained.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $3.58 Difference: $2.92
If LTM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.56, suggesting upside of 89.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTM as Outperform (1) -

in a prudent move, according to Macquarie, Arcadium Lithium plans to transition Mt Cattlin to care and maintenance by the end of the 1H of 2025 due to falling lithium prices.

In the interim, the Stage 4A pre-strip operation will be suspended and future capital investment will cease beyond Stage 3, notes the broker.

Outperform rating and $6.60 target are retained.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $3.58 Difference: $3.02
If LTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.56, suggesting upside of 89.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Noting a -40% drop in share price in the last three months, Citi highlights the challenge for Mineral Resources is ensuring enough cash to fund growth against a deteriorating iron ore outlook and ongoing weak spodumene prices.

A catalyst is needed to reinstate confidence in the balance sheet, suggests the analyst. The broker's suggestions include reducing costs further, drawing down more on the $800m revolver loan, or a sell-down of energy. 

The target falls to $50 from $55 after removal of lithium tolling from Citi's medium-term estimates and the inclusion of interest for the $600m Trafigura iron ore prepayment. Buy.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $32.20 Difference: $17.8
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $52.94, suggesting upside of 73.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MMI as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes the August production update for Metro Mining which came in as a record month for bauxite shipped at 720kt, or 1.36mt for Sept quarter to date.

The quarterly 2.2mt target appears to be in sight and the 2024 target of 6.1mt is meeting the analyst's expectations.

The broker comments the expansion is progressing well to achieve targeted capacity with the new Caterpillar wheel loaders assisting to generate higher targets for Metro.

With extreme rains in Guinea and constraints in China, the bauxite market remains tight, the analyst states.

Unchanged Buy, High Risk rating and target of 14c. Metro Mining is one of the broker's top 2024 stock picks.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.104
If MMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 289% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PMT as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes the Patriot Battery Metals investor day highlighting Shaakicjiuwaanaan's grade and scale stand it apart from other lithium developers.

The preliminary economic assessment reconfirmed a large project with the capacity to run over decades. Stage 1 is 400ktpa of spodumene concentrate capacity target at US$487m capex with a doubling of capacity to 800ktpa in stage 2 at a -US$310m cost, including an investment tax credit from the Canadian government.

Buy rated (High risk) $1.80 target price.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $1.4
If PMT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 350% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.00, suggesting upside of 163.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Neutral (3) -

Former CFO at Woodside Energy ((WDS) and CEO of Newcrest Mining, Sherry Duhe will replace the retiring CFO Mckinnell at Santos.

Citi considers Duhe a highly competent, experienced manager who will lend genuine management strength to Santos, and would be a potential replacement for CEO Gallagher in time.

The appointment of Duhe should help alleviate market fears around CEO succession, suggests Citi.

Neutral and $8.00 target retained.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $0.98
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.25, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SXG as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes the drilling results from Golden Dyke at the Sunday Creek Gold-Antimony project for Southern Cross Gold.

The broker highlights Golden Dyke is now the third high mineralisation at Sunday Creek along with Rising Sun and Apollo.

Southern Cross Gold has cash on hand of $13.1m as at May end and remains well funded for future programs, the analyst states.

The Buy rating (High risk) and $3.26 target price are unchanged.

No changes to earnings forecasts.

Target price is $3.26 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.52
If SXG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources