Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates A4N as Speculative Buy (1) -

Alpha HPA has completed a $225m equity placement underpinning the commercialisation of its HPA First Stage 2 project. This was supported by the Australian government's fund that is now a 7% shareholder in the stock as well as existing substantial shareholders Orica ((ORI)) and AustralianSuper.

The company has updated the timeline and economic parameters of the project and this now supports a higher average product price, up 14% on the May 2024 assumption.

Over 2026 Bell Potter expects the company will sign more offtake letters of intent and progress to sales contracts. Speculative Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced $1.50 from $2.00.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.78
If A4N meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 108% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AOV as Buy (1) -

Today's release of Amotiv's interim earnings (EBITA) of $98.3m was broadly in line with Citi's expectation, while profit missed consensus due to higher-than-expected significant items linked to Amotiv Unified.

In an early assessment, the  broker highlights Passenger and Truck Upgrades (PTU) as the standout. Also noted are resilient wear-and-repair demand, solid offshore growth, disciplined corporate cost control and strong cash conversion offsetting weakness elsewhere.

Citi flags ongoing pressure in 4WD from an unfavourable car parc mix and continued challenges in Light Power Equipment (LPE), though FY26 EBITA guidance of $195m has been reiterated and margins are expected to improve in the second half.

Target $12.56. Buy.

Target price is $12.56 Current Price is $8.44 Difference: $4.12
If AOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.62, suggesting upside of 43.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BML as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners has upgraded its silver price forecast, which has resulted in Boab Metals’ target price advancing to $1.70 from $1.08, previously.

The analyst calculated every US$10/oz move on the silver price is worth 40c to the share price. At the current silver price of US$80/oz, the shares are estimated to be worth $1.53.

Despite the rally in the silver price, Boab shares have lagged and are up to 53c from 41c since the final investment decision and capital raising.

The broker retains a Buy rating, High Risk, and believes Boab offers an "excellent opportunity" for investors seeking silver exposure.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $1.17
If BML meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 221% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as No Rating (-1) -

Heading into the reporting season, UBS is positive on the Australian Steel sector. US listed steel mills have outperformed the S&P500 by around 30% over three months, reflecting earnings upgrades driven by higher 2026 steel price expectations, explain the analysts.

UBS is currently on research restriction for BlueScope Steel.

Interim results are due on February 17.

Current Price is $29.26. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $28.64, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BVS as Neutral (3) -

Bravura Solutions’ trading update offered a guidance upgrade ahead of 1H26 results on Feb 11, Macquarie notes.

Revenue guidance has been lifted by 5% for FY26 and cash earnings (EBITDA) by 18%, with the broker and consensus sitting at the midpoint of prior guidance.

Management attributed the upgrade to improved project engagement with customers and good cost controls, while project services have been expanded. The trend is expected to continue into 2H26.

Macquarie upgrades EPS forecasts by 20.3% for FY26 and 18.8% for FY27, with no change to its Neutral rating and $3.02 target, pending the interim results.

Target price is $3.02 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.69
If BVS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CAR as Buy (1) -

The interim result from CAR Group was in line with Bell Potter's forecasts. All regions other than Australia posted revenue growth in double digits.

A conversational search function on the carsales platform in Australia, similar to that deployed by webmotors in Brazil, is generating early traction with users that are twice as likely to submit a lead using AI search, the broker notes.

Guidance has been reaffirmed with some margin compression anticipated in North America and Asia from investment in marketing. The broker reduces the target to $39.80 from $42.20, to reflect a higher risk-free rate and the potential for AI-based competition. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $39.80 Current Price is $26.91 Difference: $12.89
If CAR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.15, suggesting upside of 38.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

Citi expects minimal near-term consensus earnings changes for CAR Group following interim results. Currency headwinds are expected to offset stronger underlying growth, while confidence in the medium-term growth outlook has increased.

A summary of the broker's initial research yesterday follows.

Citi observes CAR Group is in line to achieve the upper end of FY26 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) guidance post the 1H26 earnings report with forex remaining around a -2% headwind.

The company announced 11% growth in net profit after tax which met the analyst's expectations and consensus.

The US looks to be improving but requires increased investment as 2H26 growth is underpinned by an earlier price rise and OEM brands signing up recently, supporting growth in Media. Marine was noted as a probable loss of -$1m in 1H26 with investment impacting margins.

Management continues to look at M&A options, but large transactions are currently constrained due to the valuation ascribed to the company's stock. Re AI, the company has moved ahead well and is considered to be ahead of REA Group ((REA)).

The broker has a Buy rating and a $39.95 target, from $39.65.

Target price is $39.65 Current Price is $26.91 Difference: $12.74
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.15, suggesting upside of 38.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CAR as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie suggests all clear for now regarding AI potential disruption for CAR Group post the 1H26 earnings, which met expectations and reconfirmed FY26 constant FX guidance, with management pointing to a 2 percentage point actual FX headwind.

First half net profit after tax ex minorities rose 11% y/y, with North America continuing to improve, showing sequential revenue growth on a constant currency basis and a 6% price rise to assist in 2H26, the analyst explains.

Management sees AI as a net advantage, which the broker concurs with via speedier product development and cost efficiencies.

With uncertainty around medium term risks of AI disruption, the analyst believes it is too early to tell yet, and remains cautious.

Macquarie lowers the target price to $28.50 from $39, which implies a 25x price to FY26 earnings estimate due to the compression in valuations for online classifieds and longer term uncertainty over AI impacts to the sector. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $26.91 Difference: $1.59
If CAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.15, suggesting upside of 38.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAR as Buy (1) -

UBS assesses CAR Group delivered a solid, in-line interim result, highlighting consistent execution across regions.

Management reassured the market that AI investment will remain within the existing capex envelope while beginning to generate incremental revenue, note the analysts.

The broker remains comfortable with medium-term growth drivers, making only minor forecast earnings changes. Stronger international and Korean growth is expected to offset second-half headwinds from a stronger Australian dollar.

UBS sees AI continuing to support yield, depth and margin expansion over time and forecasts margin growth from FY27. It's anticipated US growth will re-accelerate into double digits as inventory and macro conditions improve.

Buy rating and $39.60 target retained.

Target price is $39.60 Current Price is $26.91 Difference: $12.69
If CAR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.15, suggesting upside of 38.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Challenger and HoldCo’s proposed acquisition of Pepper Money, viewing the $2.60 per share all-cash price as broadly consistent with Pepper Money's inherent value.

The around -$280m investment aligns with Challenger’s strategy and may secure access to high-quality fixed income assets at attractive yields, notes the broker.

Investor concern centres on the minority stake and the likely reduction in the size of any future “day 1” capital return, point out the analysts.

The risk is flagged that more capital could be deployed into similar investments over time, further constraining capital returns.

Citi retains a Buy rating and target of $10.25.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $8.60 Difference: $1.65
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.00, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Equal-weight (3) -

Challenger has entered discussions to jointly acquire Pepper Money ((PPM)) at $2.60 per share, a 48% premium, with management suggesting the deal would be EPS accretive.

The broker estimates Challenger’s ownership would be below 25%, implying an outlay of up to around -$290m, funded from excess capital and excess capital, without requiring an equity raising.

The proposal is broadly aligned with Challenger’s non-bank lending strategy, highlight the analysts, though it remains unclear whether it meaningfully expands asset origination capabilities.

Target $8.70. Equal-weight. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $8.60 Difference: $0.1
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.00, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COL as Buy (1) -

Earlier today, Region Group released interim results and UBS has grabbed the opportunity to extract fresh insights about supermarket sales momentum for the period.

According to Region Group's release, supermarket sales momentum eased slightly in 1H26, with comparable MAT (Moving Annual Total) sales growth of 3.1% to Dec-25 versus 3.3% at June last year.

The broker highlights improved discount department store trends (3.7% MAT) and a tenant mix anchored by Woolworths/Coles and Big W/Kmart.

Commentary also highlights the REIT is co-investing in e-commerce infrastructure, spending -$8.0m in 1H26 (around -$15m in FY26), as 1Q26 online sales grew 27.9% for Coles Group and 12.9% for Woolworths Group, with online shares of 13.3% and 16.2%, respectively.

The report states one key swing factor for the next leg is whether Coles continues to outpace Woolworths and whether Kmart’s outperformance over Big W persists (the broker's current estimates suggest 'yes'), with flow-through implications for traffic and leasing conditions across the REIT's shopping centres.

Buy. Target $25.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $21.80 Difference: $3.2
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.67, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights CSL’s early-stage collaboration and option deal with unlisted Swiss biotech Memo Therapeutics. The transaction is worth up to US$328m plus single-digit royalties, centred on recombinant immunoglobulin G (IgG) development.

The agreement targets Memo’s Dropzylla platform, which enables production of recombinant polyclonal IgG, seen as more viable than engineered alternatives given the complexity of native antibody mixtures.

It’s thought the technology is better positioned initially as a substitute for hyperimmunes, rather than full Ig replacement.

Citi views the deal as a reasonable investment offering longer-term optionality ahead of further detail at CSL’s February 11 results.

Buy. Target unchanged $225.

Target price is $225.00 Current Price is $180.37 Difference: $44.63
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $227.36, suggesting upside of 32.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DXC as Buy (1) -

Dexus Convenience Retail REIT delivered a first half result that was broadly in line with Bell Potter estimates. FY26 guidance was reiterated for free funds per share and distribution of 20.9c.

The broker considers the result robust, underpinned by valuations that are growing 4.4% half on half. The service station commercial cycling of lows should continue to support growth in assets as the REIT targets further metro/highway assets.

The broker does point out that an increase in marginal cost of debt will render new acquisitions trickier from an accretion/upgrade perspective. Buy rating unchanged. Target is reduced to $3.25 from $3.45.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.45
If DXC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Citi believes today's trading update by Macquarie Group was broadly in line with the broker's expectations.

Stronger profitability is noted across Macquarie Asset Management (MAM), Commodities and Global Markets (CGM) and MacCap, reflecting known public markets gains, easier comparables and improved investment income.

Management modestly upgraded commodities guidance, now expected to be up year-on-year, implying to Citi a potential lift to consensus revenue. It's felt this may be offset by higher FY26 tax guidance of around 31%.

The broker expects a muted market reaction, with year-to-date trading tracking expectations and little new information to drive near-term share price upside following recent outperformance.

Neutral rating. Target $210.

Target price is $210.00 Current Price is $212.91 Difference: minus $2.91 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $228.00, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MQG as Buy (1) -

At first look, UBS notes Macquarie Group's 3Q26 operational results were ok, with better guidance for Commodities and Global Markets (CGM), which is expected to generate increased earnings as opposed to a flat result.

This improvement is expected to be offset by a higher than anticipated effective tax rate for FY26, around the 1H26 level of circa 31%. This is higher than the analyst's forecast by around $250m, which equals around a -5.5% impact on forecast net profit after tax.

Markets related businesses, including MAM and Mac Cap, have generated growth of 25% y/y, while CGM has benefited from better asset finance and a more robust commodities performance, UBS details.

The broker retains a Buy rating and $235 target price, noting consensus EPS growth is 13.1% for FY26.

Target price is $235.00 Current Price is $212.91 Difference: $22.09
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $228.00, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter observes mining activity across Orica's two large blasting solutions regions, Australasia & Asia and North America, continues to exhibit positive momentum.

In Australia iron ore majors have delivered record production while the rapid appreciation of the price of spodumene concentrate has allowed producers to assess plans to reactivate idled capacity. The broker suspects exploration budgets for 2026 could be set materially higher than 2025.

EBIT growth momentum is expected to be sustained in the short to medium term and Bell Potter expects the company to prioritise an extension of its active $100 m buyback program  in the absence of any transforming M&A.

Buy rating. Target is raised to $28.50 from $26.00.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $26.03 Difference: $2.47
If ORI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.51, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PME as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Morgans highlights the sell-off in Pro Medicus as investors become concerned that AI could structurally erode economics and commoditise premium-imaging SaaS platforms.

The core value of AI in healthcare is efficiency, speeding up workflow through automation and tackling tasks such as image-quality checks, auto-labelling and even pre-reading of obvious negatives.

The broker asserts this does not replace the need for radiology nor the enterprise workflow, data routing and high-performance visualisation that underpin the business.

Morgans believes Pro Medicus is one of the highest quality businesses listed on the ASX with robust margins and a stable revenue base and suggests it is a good time to pick up the shares, upgrading to Buy from Accumulate. Target is $290.

Target price is $290.00 Current Price is $161.17 Difference: $128.83
If PME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $317.72, suggesting upside of 90.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PPM as Buy (1) -

Citi views Challenger and HoldCo’s proposed acquisition of Pepper Money as clearly positive for the latter.

The analysts see the $2.60 per share all-cash price as broadly consistent with Pepper Money's inherent value.

The Buy rating and $2.70 target for Pepper Money are maintained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.44
If PPM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

Looking at sixteen offshore results and read-throughs for QBE Insurance from 4Q2025 infers a softening in premium rates to around 1.1% for QBE's mix, with global property risk very "weak" currently, Macquarie explains.

The stock is currently trading around a -12.4% PER discount to international peers and the broker retains an Outperform rating and $22.90 target. The company is due to report results on February 20. No changes to EPS forecasts.

Target price is $22.90 Current Price is $20.38 Difference: $2.52
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.74, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates REA as Buy (1) -

REA Group’s first half result slightly missed Bell Potter's estimates. The result was supported by stronger buy yields, partially offset by a decline in volumes.

The broker observes the company has developed functions on its platform, leveraging a global tech team using AI daily. Engagement metrics appears strong giving the company a base to leverage its capabilities and defend existing business.

Bell Potter does point out REA Group is seen as potentially exposed at a search function level and platform development level, noting marketplace valuations have declined significantly, and that reflects the potential impact of AI/LLM displacing software related businesses.

Target is reduced to $211 from $244 and a Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $211.00 Current Price is $167.12 Difference: $43.88
If REA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $228.23, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RGN as Buy (1) -

Today's interim results by Region Group included slightly upgraded FY26 funds from operations (FFO) guidance to 16cps, marginally ahead of Citi's expectation.

AFFO guidance was raised in line with consensus and supported by solid defensive rental growth, according to an early assessment by the broker.

The analysts highlight strong operating metrics, including specialty fixed rent reviews of 4.3%, leasing spreads of 3.4%, high occupancy and disciplined balance sheet settings, while distributions remain fully covered by AFFO.

Citi believes the market should respond positively to the guidance upgrade, with Region trading at around a -9% discount to revised NTA despite resilient convenience retail fundamentals.

Buy. Target price $2.40.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: $0.08
If RGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RGN as Sell (5) -

Earlier today, Region Group released interim results and UBS has grabbed the opportunity to extract fresh insights about supermarket sales momentum for the period.

According to Region Group's release, supermarket sales momentum eased slightly in 1H26, with comparable MAT (Moving Annual Total) sales growth of 3.1% to Dec-25 versus 3.3% at June last year.

The broker highlights improved discount department store trends (3.7% MAT) and a tenant mix anchored by Woolworths/Coles and Big W/Kmart.

Commentary also highlights the REIT is co-investing in e-commerce infrastructure, spending -$8.0m in 1H26 (around -$15m in FY26), as 1Q26 online sales grew 27.9% for Coles Group ((COL)) and 12.9% for Woolworths Group ((WOW)), with online shares of 13.3% and 16.2%, respectively.

The report states one key swing factor for the next leg is whether Coles continues to outpace Woolworths and whether Kmart’s outperformance over Big W persists (the broker's current estimates suggest 'yes'), with flow-through implications for traffic and leasing conditions across the REIT's shopping centres.

UBS does not disclose a rating/price target or flag forecast changes in this short takeaways note, leaving the main risks as a renewed supermarket slowdown and continued channel shift towards online.

Earlier in February, UBS downgraded Region Group to Sell from Neutral with reduced price target of $2.15, down from $2.40.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If RGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett upgrades Rio Tinto to Accumulate from Hold, reinstating the stock as its preferred choice versus BHP Group ((BHP)) among the large diversified miners as talks with Glencore have been abandoned.

Glencore had wanted 40% of the combined group and both parties could not agree on an acceptable price.

Ord Minnett now expects management will focus on growth projects, recycling of assets and the cost reduction program presented at the capital markets briefing in December.

Detailed guidance is expected with the 2025 earnings result on February 19. Target is raised to $173 from $158.

Target price is $173.00 Current Price is $160.37 Difference: $12.63
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $145.00, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGM as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Heading into the reporting season, UBS is positive on the Australian Steel sector. US listed steel mills have outperformed the S&P500 by around 30% over three months, reflecting earnings upgrades driven by higher 2026 steel price expectations, explain the analysts.

UBS raises its target for Sims to $25.00 from $17.15 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral, arguing Sims Lifecycle Services (SLS) is emerging as a potential thesis changer following stronger visibility on earnings sustainability.

The broker's greater confidence stems from Double Data Rate 4 (DDR4) prices doubling and channel checks suggesting market deficits will persist through 2027.

Note: SLS recovers and resells memory components from decommissioned IT equipment, meaning rising DDR4 pricing directly boosts margins and earnings.

UBS also highlights improving conditions in the Metals division, with non-ferrous prices rising on supply constraints and ferrous scrap prices reaching near one-year highs, providing broader earnings tailwinds.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $20.62 Difference: $4.38
If SGM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.72, suggesting downside of -20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SHL as Buy (1) -

Sonic Healthcare is expected to increase revenue by 10.6% and EBITDA by 15.6% when it reports its first half result on February 19.

Bell Potter suggests the primary driver will be acquired growth in the pathology business, while the radiology business should perform around industry trend, growing around 5.5%.

Target is lowered to $28.50 from $33.30, as the PE component of the blended valuation is lowered, and reflecting the recent performance in the share price. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $21.98 Difference: $6.52
If SHL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.53, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SKY as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage on Sky Metals with a Speculative Buy rating and $0.32 target as it offers a leveraged exposure to tin, a strategically important metal supported by electronics demand and a structurally tight and disruption prone supply base.

The company owns the Tallebung tin project in New South Wales, an historic tin field which has a JORC defined minerals source of 15.6mt at 0.15% tin.

Mineralisation has been demonstrated to have strong amenability to ore sorting, with test work indicating an order-of-magnitude head grade uplift, a key driver of project economics. The broker models an initial eight-year operation.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.14
If SKY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

Transurban Group announced toll road performance up 7.3% due to the ramp-up of WestConnex (WCX) and a robust performance from US assets up 20%, which surprised Macquarie.

Road works continue to affect Sydney traffic, with the M7 anticipated to rebound in 4Q26 and FY27 as the widening is completed.

The analyst points to two issues, the refinancing of around $2bn-$2.5bn of proportional debt over the next five years, with a large proportion funded at materially lower rates.

Commentary highlights the project pipeline has been stagnant since FY25. Balance sheet capacity stands at around $7.2bn by FY28.

Macquarie lifts EPS forecasts by 0.6% for FY26 and 0.8% for FY27, with a slight downward revision in target to $14.46 from $14.55 due to short-term debt refinancing risks. Neutral rating is retained.

Target price is $14.46 Current Price is $13.78 Difference: $0.68
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Sell (5) -

Following a trip to China, the analysts at Citi report lower offline retail pricing for most Penfolds products compared with November 2025.

This observation aligns with the broker’s recent cross-border e-commerce price checks, with consumer dynamics continuing to evolve in ways that are unfavourable for Penfolds.

The broker sees limited risk to Penfolds’ 1H26 earnings (EBITS) guidance of $200m, noting management expects FY26 earnings to be broadly balanced, though little evidence of a near-term China recovery is apparent.

Citi instead highlights greater near-term earnings risk in the Americas following recent distributor developments. Store visits have indicated double-digit price declines across key Penfolds ranges and some loss of shelf space to alternative alcohol categories.

Sell maintained. Target price $4.80.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.17 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.02, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VSL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Heading into the reporting season, UBS is positive on the Australian Steel sector. US listed steel mills have outperformed the S&P500 by around 30% over three months, reflecting earnings upgrades driven by higher 2026 steel price expectations, explain the analysts.

The broker raises its target for Vulcan Steel to $7.65 from $7.00 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral, citing early signs of an Australian end-market recovery.

2026 housing starts are forecast to rise 8% and Queensland continuing to benefit from strong residential and infrastructure activity, explain the analysts.

The broker also notes recent data and channel checks suggest the New Zealand economy has bottomed, although any recovery is expected to lag by 6-12 months and is not assumed in forecasts.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $6.82 Difference: $0.83
If VSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WEB as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes Web Travel held an investor call following news of an audit for its Spanish subsidiary.

The broker explains the audit itself was not discussed in detail, leaving unanswered questions around potential cash impacts, fines or changes to the tax rate, which remain key near-term uncertainties.

The analysts flag broader investor concerns around the defensibility of B2B travel intermediaries amid rising AI adoption, peer take-rate pressure and WEB’s competitive positioning.

Guidance for FY26 and growth expectations for FY27 were reaffirmed.

Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating and $4.40 target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $0.89
If WEB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.84, suggesting upside of 61.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WEB as Buy (1) -

Web Travel has signalled the Spanish tax agency has commenced an audit of its domestic subsidiary. Ord Minnett asserts audits of this nature are common but it seems the market is taking a "shoot first and ask questions later" approach.

The Spanish business equated to around 10% of group revenue in FY25 which suggests that any adverse tax finding in Spain is likely to be relatively immaterial to group earnings, provided there is no flow on to other jurisdictions.

FY26 EBITDA guidance of $147-155m has been reaffirmed with capital expenditure in line with FY25. The broker retains a Buy rating and reduces its target to $6.16 from $7.00.

Target price is $6.16 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $2.65
If WEB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.84, suggesting upside of 61.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WEB as Buy (1) -

UBS notes the Spanish subsidiary audit for Web Travel was disclosed proactively following local media coverage and is viewed by management as immaterial. Regular tax reviews are considered part of normal operations.

FY26 guidance is unchanged despite tougher late-year currency headwinds, aside from lower expected net finance costs. Earnings guidance of $147-155m is still aligned with consensus expectations, highlight the analysts.

The broker points to continued outperformance versus the broader travel market and sees limited financial risk from the audit, estimating any potential exposure as immaterial relative to recent market cap losses.

UBS retains a Buy rating and target of $6.15.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $2.64
If WEB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.84, suggesting upside of 61.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WES as Neutral (3) -

Earlier today, Region Group released interim results and UBS has grabbed the opportunity to extract fresh insights about supermarket sales momentum for the period.

According to Region Group's release, supermarket sales momentum eased slightly in 1H26, with comparable MAT (Moving Annual Total) sales growth of 3.1% to Dec-25 versus 3.3% at June last year.

The broker highlights improved discount department store trends (3.7% MAT) and a tenant mix anchored by Woolworths/Coles and Big W/Kmart.

Commentary also highlights the REIT is co-investing in e-commerce infrastructure, spending -$8.0m in 1H26 (around -$15m in FY26), as 1Q26 online sales grew 27.9% for Coles Group and 12.9% for Woolworths Group, with online shares of 13.3% and 16.2%, respectively.

The report states one key swing factor for the next leg is whether Coles continues to outpace Woolworths and whether Kmart’s outperformance over Big W persists (the broker's current estimates suggest 'yes'), with flow-through implications for traffic and leasing conditions across the REIT's shopping centres.

Neutral. Target $90.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $86.22 Difference: $3.78
If WES meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $87.47, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

Earlier today, Region Group released interim results and UBS has grabbed the opportunity to extract fresh insights about supermarket sales momentum for the period.

According to Region Group's release, supermarket sales momentum eased slightly in 1H26, with comparable MAT (Moving Annual Total) sales growth of 3.1% to Dec-25 versus 3.3% at June last year.

The broker highlights improved discount department store trends (3.7% MAT) and a tenant mix anchored by Woolworths/Coles and Big W/Kmart.

Commentary also highlights the REIT is co-investing in e-commerce infrastructure, spending -$8.0m in 1H26 (around -$15m in FY26), as 1Q26 online sales grew 27.9% for Coles Group and 12.9% for Woolworths Group, with online shares of 13.3% and 16.2%, respectively.

The report states one key swing factor for the next leg is whether Coles continues to outpace Woolworths and whether Kmart’s outperformance over Big W persists (the broker's current estimates suggest 'yes'), with flow-through implications for traffic and leasing conditions across the REIT's shopping centres.

Neutral. Target $30.75.

Target price is $30.75 Current Price is $31.64 Difference: minus $0.89 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.50, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WTC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie comes out fighting on the strength of WiseTech Global's moat and debunking AI concerns, seeing the company as the "most defensible" in ASX tech.

The current share price infers 76% of the company's total addressable market is "cannibalised" by AI, which is viewed as extremely pessimistic.

CargoWise output requires 100% accuracy, which limits LLM applications to core workflows, while CargoWise is an embedded vertical operating system with proprietary data supported by R&D, and the value share model guards against disruption, the analyst explains.

Accounting for price discounting to incentivise CVP transition via channel checks, Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -7% for FY26 and FY27 and lowers the target to $94 from $108.50 previously. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $94.00 Current Price is $49.30 Difference: $44.7
If WTC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $111.95, suggesting upside of 121.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources