Australian Broker Call

Citi rates A2M as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Following a further review of a2 Milk Co's FY25 results, Citi now has more confidence in management’s ability to navigate the Chinese market, which the broker believes has been better executed than peers over the past nine years.

While the broker's FY26 EPS forecasts are cut by -8% due to one-off transformation costs, Citi sees this as manageable in light of medium-term growth opportunities.

The analysts upgrade forecasts for FY27-29 EPS by 1%, 8% and 15% respectively, reflecting contributions from Yashili (acquisition). The broker raises its target to $9.29 from $8.20 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

A summary of the broker's initial thoughts on FY25 results follows.

At first inspection, Citi notes a2 Milk Co reported FY25 net profit after tax, revenue and earnings (EBITDA) in line with consensus.

Management guided to high single-digit FY26 revenue growth, which Citi views as -1% to -3% weaker than consensus.

Consensus EPS forecast downgrades of around -11% are anticipated, although earnings include a -NZ$10m-NZ$15m one-off Pokeno-related cost. On an underlying base, the broker concludes the outlook meets expectations.

Citi believes the company continues to execute well on its strategy, commending management. The core infant milk business seems to be performing in line with expectations.

For shareholders, the analyst sees several de-risking events such as supply chain acquisition and possible special dividends in the future. Ongoing investment into a shrinking part of the China label market raises some concerns for Citi.

Target price is $9.29 Current Price is $8.66 Difference: $0.63
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.46, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGI as No Rating (-1) -

Ainsworth Game Technology's 1H25 profit before tax was flat on the prior period and met guidance announced in mid-May.

Macquarie notes revenue was slightly higher over the previous year, up 2% underpinned by the A-Star Raptor cabinet, but higher costs impacted the bottom line.

Recurring revenue represents 33% of revenue, including gaming ops and HHR connection fees. The company had net outflows of -$8m and finished with cash on hand of $1m.

Macquarie cuts profit before tax forecasts ex forex and one-offs by -18% for 2025 and -31% for 2026; EPS estimates decline by -3% and -31% for 2025/2026.

Macquarie remains on research restriction.

Current Price is $1.00. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AL3 as Buy (1) -

AML3D released its Annual Report which has resulted in minimal earnings forecast changes from Shaw and Partners.

The analyst views the company as well positioned to benefit from US onshoring, with partnerships including the US Navy and Boeing, including a FY26 $9m backlog which offers transparency around potential works.

Positively, the Stow, Ohio technology centre is now operational as at June, facilitating faster response times and access to US-based work.

Commentary highlights the US Navy issued a letter of intent in July identifying Arcemy as central to demand guidance for 100 systems installations and 400 parts in 2026, rising to 1300 by 2030.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 40c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.09
If AL3 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes Ampol 1H25 result met expectations and the company remains in dialogue with the federal government over fuel security services payment to guard against low margin periods.

The analyst has assumed ACCC approval for the EG acquisition with 20 sites sold in 2026, which is now incorporated into earnings forecasts.

Macquarie estimated earnings (EBIT) forecast rises by $53m for 2026 and $172m for 2027 with cost outs and U-Go conversions in place, which results in EPS estimates falling -2.6% for 2025 on lower Lytton margins and rising by 3.7%-7.2% in 2026-2028.

Target price is raised to $30.25, up by 7.5%. No change in Neutral rating.

Target price is $30.25 Current Price is $29.16 Difference: $1.09
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.06, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APA as Outperform (1) -

On first take, APA Group reported FY25 earnings (EBITDA) pre one-offs up 6.4%, which broadly met Macquarie and consensus forecasts.

FY26 guidance stands at $2.12bn-$2.2bn versus the analyst's forecast at $2.17bn and consensus at $2.16bn, with dividend at 58c which is in line.

The analyst points to ongoing high one-off costs, although half are non-cash items. Growth was generated by ECG grid, up 6.3%, and WCG rose 5.2% meeting estimates. Power transmission rose 17.3%, which was slightly better than expected, with improvement in the Mt Isa power system and first income from Port Hedland SDF/battery.

Outperform rated. Target $8.14.

Target price is $8.14 Current Price is $8.47 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.08, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APA as Sell (5) -

Today's APA Group’s 1H25 result was in line with UBS and consensus, with revenue of $1,384m, underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $992m and profit of $102m.

At first glance, the broker believes earnings were supported by stronger contributions from Victoria and Queensland, offsetting softer Western Australia performance, while profit benefited from lower depreciation and finance costs.

A 30c distribution, pre-announced, implies a payout ratio of 68.7% of free cash flow.

The broker notes FY25 growth and sustaining capex were above guidance, while foundational capex was lower year-on-year.

Leverage remains high, suggests the analysts, though funds from operations to net debt of 10.4% stays above the 9.5% ratings threshold, with $2.4bn in liquidity to fund $2.1bn in growth projects.

Guidance for FY26 is for earnings of between $2,120-2,200m, in line with consensus, with distributions of 58c and free cash flow expected to be flat year-on-year.

Target $7.50. Neutral rating.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $8.47 Difference: minus $0.97 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.08, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Post FY25 results, Citi reiterates its Buy rating on the stock with a more upbeat view on the outlook for the US business, with scope for Australia to achieve improved performance over the next year.

The analyst likes the growth in ORW sales (Off Road Warehouse), and ARB products are experiencing 100% sales growth in some months above the 25% noted in 1H25. More upside is flagged for the acquisition from rollout of store-in-store displays and store network growth.

New vehicle sales in Australia are expected to be in line with FY25, and Citi believes the market has hit a cyclical bottom. ARB Corp also has parts for BYD Shark 6, which is considered less disruptive.

Citi lowers its net profit after tax forecasts by -7% and -10% for FY26/FY27, respectively.

Target price is lifted to $45.17 from $38.70, with earnings downgrades offset by higher peer and market multiples ascribed to the stock.

Target price is $45.17 Current Price is $39.49 Difference: $5.68
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.36, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARB as Outperform (1) -

ARB Corp FY25 revenue was in line with Macquarie and consensus, with net profit after tax a miss by -5% and -3%, respectively, due to forex headwinds.

Exports rose 16% on the prior year, a standout with 2H up 13%. There is also momentum developing in the US, the analyst highlights, with US up 21% on the prior year as the strategy rollout for ORW/4WP stores takes hold.

US sales were also boosted by the e-commerce launch and the start of a US engineering team, with strength from Toyota.

Australian sales were flat in FY25 but outperformed the broker's 4x4 NVS index, which declined -12.3%. The analyst forecasts growth of 5% for FY26, boosted by potential rate cuts and the 4Q25 exit rate of 2.5% growth.

OEM sales were flat in FY25 as expected, with sales forecast to slip in 1H26 and a better 2H26 anticipated.

Macquarie lowers its EPS forecasts by -8% and -9% for FY26/FY27, respectively, due to lower gross margins but flags upside if management can improve pricing, forex exposure, and costs.

Target price rises 3% to $44.90 with a roll forward of valuation. No change in Outperform rating.

Target price is $44.90 Current Price is $39.49 Difference: $5.41
If ARB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.36, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ARB as Overweight (1) -

Despite ARB Corp's FY25 earnings missing consensus, the highlight for Morgan Stanley was the strength and durability of its offshore structural growth, further supported by domestic cycle upside.

The broker notes the lower 2H25 gross margin was impacted by the AUD trading at 5-year lows vs the Thai Baht, though some offset came from cost management.

Growth optionality in the US comes from both distribution and product taking shape, with 4WP/ORW channel integration complete, OEM partnership a tailwind for FY26 and hybrid e-commerce extending the company's reach.

The broker trimmed FY26-27 earnings by -5%, now assuming gross margin of 55% in FY26 and 55.3% in FY27, around -215-220bps below previous estimate.

Overweight. Target rises to $44 from $40 on higher multiple in valuation. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $39.49 Difference: $4.51
If ARB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.36, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ARB as Accumulate (2) -

ARB Corp's FY25 result was mixed, assesses Morgans, with profit of $96.2m down -7.6% year-on-year and slightly below the broker's forecast.

More positively, the board declared a surprise 50c special dividend lifting total dividends to 119c. Sales rose 5.3% to $730m, with Export up 16.4% led by the Americas, explains the broker, while Aftermarket and OEM were flat.

Export momentum was strong across all regions, highlights Morgans, while Aftermarket showed signs of stabilisation despite a weaker first-half performance.

Margins softened, with second-half gross margin of 54.9% down around -370bps on higher costs and FX pressures, explain the analysts, though order intake remained stable and fourth-quarter sales rose 6.5%.

Operating cash flow was $128m, up 2%, and the company ended with $69.2m net cash.

Morgans makes only minor forecast changes, trimming FY26 EPS by -2.4% but lifting FY27 by 2.9%.

Morgans lifts its target to $44.50 from $38.25 on stronger export growth and US progress, and maintains an Accumulate rating.

Target price is $44.50 Current Price is $39.49 Difference: $5.01
If ARB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.36, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -

ARB Corp’s FY25 profit of $96.2m was down -7.6% year-on-year and came in -5% below Ord Minnett’s forecast.

Sales of $729.9m were broadly in line, with Australian Aftermarket slightly weaker, with exports up 16.4% against the broker’s 11.2% forecast, and OEM marginally softer than expected.

Profit (PBT) of $132.6m missed the broker’s $140.2m forecast and margins contracted to 18.5% from 20.4%.

A final dividend of 35c and a special dividend of 50c were declared.

The broker highlights ORW/4WP delivered an improving performance, achieving profits in five of the last six months of FY25. The analysts' earnings forecasts are reduced by around -6% for the next two years as a result of the weaker FY25 outcome.

Ord Minnett sees ARB as well-positioned with a strong order book, new vehicle launches and easing cost pressures, and expects long-term growth through store investment, offshore expansion and OEM partnerships.

Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating with a $42.00 target price, up from $37.00.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $39.49 Difference: $2.51
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.36, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

UBS views ARB Corp's FY25 result as a slight miss versus consensus but a “commendable” result given the challenging trading conditions. Sales revenue grew 5%, which was in line with consensus, and earnings fell -3% on the prior year. 

Margins fell in the second half, with cost-cutting offsetting the decline. UBS now expects the market to focus on the acceleration of US growth, along with overall reasonable commentary around the Australian aftermarket trend.

One key change, UBS notes, appears to be willingness to reinvest in the cost base near term; slower domestic vehicle sales and lower gross margin has constrained this capacity if earnings growth is to be delivered.

On a 31x PE, UBS feels this improved outlook is now priced in and retains Neutral. Target rises to $39.60 from $35.00.

Target price is $39.60 Current Price is $39.49 Difference: $0.11
If ARB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.36, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ASB as Hold (3) -

Austal finalised the Strategic Shipbuilding Agreement with the Australian government under which it will create a special purpose vehicle to execute the contracts. 

The government will own a single share with a call option in the vehicle, ensuring control over critical defence capability, while also limiting M&A optionality for the company.

Bell Potter notes the initial contract for medium landing craft program will generate $1-1.3bn over 8 years and details of the heavy program are still pending.

The company recently upgraded its FY25 EBIT guidance to not less than $100m, from not less than $85m before. The broker lifted forecasts, resulting in a 21% rise to FY25 EPS and a 8% rise to FY26.

Hold. Target increases to $6.75 from $5.60.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $6.64 Difference: $0.11
If ASB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.93, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Aurizon Holdings reported FY25 earnings (EBITDA) which met guidance but it was viewed by Macquarie as a low-quality result, with a $50m insurance/STI provision "flattering" the result.

Weather and network outages continued to impact coal over the period, with bulk a positive surprise in 2H. Lower maintenance capex boosted free cash flow to $90m, better than expected.

FY26 guidance of $1.68m-$1.75m is in line with expectations, although as the analyst notes, it is benefitting from a revised network account policy, changing to regulated revenue over actual.

Loss of Whitehaven ((WHC)) contract will challenge earnings in FY27/FY28. Macquarie highlights focus is now on the realisation of network and capital management. The analyst lowers earnings forecast by -5.3% for FY26 and -7.1% for FY27.

Target moves to $3.34 and no change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $3.34 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.09
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

BHP Group's  FY25 result was solid, assesses Citi, with underlying earnings (EBITDA) of US$26.0bn, 4% ahead of the broker's forecast and in line with consensus, though still down -10% year-on-year.

Profit of US$10.16bn was also in line, while the dividend of US110c surprised to the upside due to lower capex and the Carajas receipt (relating to BHP's participation in Samarco). Net debt of US$12.9bn left gearing at 19.8%.

The broker notes FY26 cost guidance is broadly steady, with WA Iron Ore (WAIO) at US$18.25-19.75/t versus US$18.6/t in FY25 and Escondida at US$1.20-1.50/lb compared with US$1.19/lb.

Medium-term capex has been lowered to -US$10bn annually, including -US$3bn sustaining and -US$4bn growth. Major projects include the WAIO car dumper renewal and a new Escondida concentrator due to deliver first copper in 2031-32.

Citi points out management targets copper equivalent production growth of 1.4% per year to FY30 and 2.2% over the next decade, both below GDP growth.

With shares trading at a 4% premium to discounted cash flow (DCF) and having outperformed Rio Tinto ((RIO)) and CommBank ((CBA)) by around 11% in three months, the broker sees valuation as full.

Citi keeps its FY26 profit forecast unchanged and trims FY27 by -3%. The broker retains its target price of $43 but downgrades to Neutral from Buy.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $42.12 Difference: $0.88
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.65, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

On further inspection Macquarie lowers its EPS forecasts by -1% for FY26 and -4% for FY27. Target price rises to $43 by 5%, and there is no change in Neutral rating.

The analyst continues to prefer BHP to Rio Tinto ((RIO)) on asset quality, but BHP's cash flow may come into more focus if capex rises.

*****

At first glance by Macquarie, today's BHP Group’s FY25 result was broadly in line with forecasts by the broker and consensus, with revenue, earnings (EBITDA) and profit within 1% of forecasts.

A re-prioritisation of capital and a higher net debt range are viewed by Macquarie as positives, as they provide flexibility and support the potential for higher shareholder returns in the future.

Free cash flow (FCF) of US$5.3bn was a 28% beat against the analyst's estimate, driven by lower capex (-29%) and stronger operating cash flow, while net debt of US$12.9bn also beat estimates.

The final dividend of US60c was also an 18% beat, reflecting a 60% payout ratio.

The broker notes copper earnings were 10% ahead of consensus, while iron ore was broadly in line, offset by weaker coal (-25%) and other divisions (-37%).

Unit costs were better across key operations, including WA Iron Ore, Queensland Coal, Escondida and Spence, while capex guidance was unchanged for FY26-27 at -US$11bn, but cut by -US$1bn to circa -US$10bn for FY28-30.

BHP has deferred its Olympic Dam smelter expansion by a year, pushed most decarbonisation spending into the next decade, and delayed Jansen Stage 2. 

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $42.12 Difference: $0.88
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.65, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

The highlight of BHP Group's FY25 results for Morgan Stanley was a dividend beat, with US$1.10/share higher than the broker's US$1.03 forecast, due to 55% payout vs 50% estimated.

Net debt of US$12.9bn was -0.3% lower than the broker's forecast and -1.1% below the consensus. The updated net debt range was largely in line, but widened.

Operating cash flow was -2% lower than the broker's estimate but 5.4% higher than consensus, with free cash flow also beating consensus. Capex for FY28 and beyond was look by -US$1bn per annum.

Overall, the broker liked the better-than-expected dividend but cautioned on the wider debt range, though maintains balance sheet is solid.

Overweight. Target price $43.50. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $43.50 Current Price is $42.12 Difference: $1.38
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.65, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

BHP Group's FY25 result was supported by solid operational and cost performance, assesses Morgans, with copper delivering strongly through robust production and by-product credits.

Revenue fell -8% to US$51.3bn, earnings (EBITDA) declined -10%, and profit is US$10.2bn; all were broadly in line with the broker's forecasts.

A final dividend of US60c surprised to the upside, aided by strong second-half free cash flow, explains the analyst.

Management increased its target net debt range to US$10-20bn from US$5-15bn, signaling softer capital discipline even as net debt rose 42% to US$12.9bn, the report highlights.

FY26 capex guidance of -US$11bn is unchanged, while cost guidance across WA Iron Ore, Escondida, and BMA compares favourably to consensus, observes the broker.

Jansen Stage 1 capex has been reset higher to -US$7.0-7.4bn with first production expected mid-2027, while Stage 2 is delayed to FY31 and FY26 potash spend is set at -US$1.9bn.

Despite this, copper and iron ore are seen as core strengths, though the 50:50 joint venture between BHP and Japan’s Mitsubishi Development continues to underperform.

Morgans makes only minor forecast changes and leaves its target price unchanged at $43.90. The broker downgrades BHP Group to Hold from Accumulate given recent share price strength.

Target price is $43.90 Current Price is $42.12 Difference: $1.78
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.65, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Accumulate (2) -

BHP Group’s FY25 result was broadly in line with Ord Minnett and consensus forecasts, supported by a strong copper performance offsetting weaker iron ore and coal, explains Ord Minnett.

A higher-than-expected dividend was declared, while unit cost guidance for FY26 came in below the broker's forecasts and capital expenditure guidance exceeded expectations.

Management has delayed copper growth in South Australia by at least a year, keeping output steady at 310,000-340,000 tonnes until FY30 instead of lifting towards 400,000 tonnes as the market expected, explains the broker.

In contrast, -US$900m is being directed to a sixth car dumper at Pilbara to support iron ore at 305mtpa from FY29. Management also flagged this rate could be lower, marking a first for WAIO guidance, highlight the analysts.

To fund growth while maintaining returns, BHP has lifted its net debt target range to US$10-20bn from US$5-15bn, leading the broker to raise its dividend payout forecast to 60% from 50%.

Ord Minnett cuts its EPS forecasts by -3.2% for FY26, -2.4% for FY27 and -1.5% for FY28 due to higher expected interest costs and depreciation despite lower unit costs.

The broker raises its target price to $42.50 from $41.00 and retains an Accumulate rating.

Target price is $42.50 Current Price is $42.12 Difference: $0.38
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.65, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BRG as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Citi notes Breville Group's FY25 profit was 2% ahead of consensus. Earnings were 1% ahead and up 10.2%, above the top end of guidance.

It was an impressive outcome in Citi's view given the higher costs that were absorbed from the US inventory pull-forward was not anticipated when the guidance was originally given. A 19cps dividend was declared broadly inline with consensus.

The company flagged significant input cost increases in FY26 and FY27 for US-based sales and noted it is actively pursuing cost mitigants.

The share price has retraced 42% since its lows in April, and is now 14% above the share price pre-Liberation Day, Citi notes, suggesting the market is willing to look through any tariff related earnings risk. Neutral and $32.10 target retained.

Target price is $32.10 Current Price is $36.06 Difference: minus $3.96 (current price is over target).
If BRG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.01, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Challenger's FY25 normalist net profit of $456m came at the mid-point of guidance and was in line with Bell Potter's forecast. The broker noted increase in Lifetime and Japanese annuity sales, up 26% y/y and 39% y/y, respectively.

The focus at the results was on the APRA review of capital for annuity writers, with proposal for recognising longer-dated corporate bonds and wider range for issuers.

If adopted, it would mean lower capital requirement and higher return ROE via a more efficient balance sheet.

FY26 guidance is seen as slightly disappointing and the broker cut FY26 EPS forecast by -2.1%, but lifted FY27 by 1.2%.

Target rises to $9.50 from $9.25. Buy maintained.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.46 Difference: $1.04
If CGF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.77, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Challenger’s FY25 result and FY26 guidance were broadly in line with Citi’s expectations, with profit guided to $455-495m, implying around 4% growth year-on-year.

Normalised FY26 EPS guidance of 66-72c matched the broker’s forecast of 69.2c at the midpoint. Citi trims its FY26-27 EPS forecasts by -2% due to share count dilution rather than earnings changes.

The broker notes the bigger driver remains APRA’s pending capital setting changes, which could release substantial capital and support returns.

While timing is uncertain, the analysts expect clarity in coming months, with potential updates at Challenger’s September investor day.

The broker sees annuity demand as encouraging, though maturities remain high with 23% of liabilities rolling off in FY26. Citi also points to life risk profits and spread widening as tailwinds, partly offset by lower cash rates.

The broker maintains its positive long-term view and keeps a $9.20 target price and Buy rating.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $8.46 Difference: $0.74
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.77, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGF as Outperform (1) -

On further inspection, Macquarie lifts its EPS forecasts by 4.6% for FY26 and 2% for FY27. Target price is raised 3% to $9.60.

No change in the Outperform rating, with the stock trading around a -36% discount to the ASX200 versus its three-year average of -26% prior to the result.

FY26 guidance missed consensus and the analyst highlights long-term investors will need to be patient for another six-12 months for details on Japanese distribution and the quantification of APRA capital changes.

****

In an early assessment, today's FY25 result by Challenger was weaker than expected by Macquarie, with FY26 profit guidance at $455-495m sitting slightly below both broker and consensus forecasts.

The final dividend was around 1c above consensus, but the absence of detail on excess capital returns and Japanese distribution arrangements weighs on sentiment.

The analyst highlights Life book growth of 3.6% with total sales of $2.3bn, while MS Primary sales from Japan rose 39% year-on-year to $984m, representing 19% of fixed-term sales and doubling the minimum annual target.

Funds management earnings of $75m beat the consensus forecast, though average funds under management (FUM) of $118.4bn missed the broker's expectation.

Capital strength was maintained with a prescribed Capital Amount (PCA) ratio of 1.6 times, near the top of the target range. Macquarie sees limited near-term catalysts despite expecting buybacks and further Japanese sales partnerships.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $8.46 Difference: $1.14
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.77, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley highlights Challenger's FY25 normalised net profit and FY26 guidance met expectations but there was a wide miss on reported net profit. This was due to actual investment returns lagging normalised.

The broker notes the FY26 normalised EPS in-line guidance represents 4% growth but it is slower than 9% achieved in FY25, and is due to tight credit spreads dragging on margins. 

The broker reckons the two RBA rate cuts in FY25 are a headwind and with two more cuts expected from here, margins could come under pressure. The forecast is for stable COE margin in FY26 at 319bps but a -3bps decline in FY27.

The broker believes proposed capital reforms, if adopted, will improve balance sheet efficiency and reduce volatility, but the persistent statutory-to-normalised earnings gap is a concern

Target lifted to $6.90 from $6.60 on valuation roll-forward. Underweight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $8.46 Difference: minus $1.56 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.77, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGF as Buy (1) -

While Challenger's FY25 result was largely in line, stronger fourth quarter annuity sales and second half spread margins point to a more positive outlook for Life, UBS suggests.

Despite upgrading its FY26 earnings forecast by 4%, consistent with the guidance mid-point, UBS continues to see upside risk from new APRA capital standards due partway through FY26.

With a more normalised yield curve to drive improved demand for duration, regulatory tailwinds assisting lifetime annuity sales and
reducing capital intensity and an "undemanding valuation", UBS  reiterates its Buy rating. Target rises to $9.30 from $9.15.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $8.46 Difference: $0.84
If CGF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.77, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CNI as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Bell Potter notes Centuria Capital's FY25 EPS was slightly above its forecast and the consensus, and FY26 EPS guidance of 13.4c was higher than its 12.6c estimate and 12.8c consensus. DPS guidance, however, missed both.

The growth outlook was outlook with FY26 target for over $1bn of gross real estate acquisitions, out of which $220m is already secured within the recently establised unlisted wholesale property fund.

Industrials is now the largest exposure but on risk watch are the delay in office redeployment and credit risks at Bass Capital, though unlisted fund redemptions look manageable, the broker believes.

FFO/share forecast for FY26 lifted by 7.1% and by 4.6% for FY27. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target rises to $2.40 from $1.80.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.25
If CNI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.12, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNI as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Centuria Capital's FY25 EPS came in better than guidance by 4.3% and slightly above Macquarie and consensus forecasts.

FY26 guidance for EPS stands at 13.4c, or growth of 9.8%, which sits above consensus by 4.7% and 6.3% above the analyst's estimate.

Net revaluations rose 1.5% over 2H25 and AUM came in at $19.7bn versus $19.6bn at December 2024. Gross real estate activity was around $2.9bn compared to circa $1.9bn in 1H25.

Operating gearing fell to 12.3% from 14.5% at 1H25, with the group's maximum gearing target around 15%.

Macquarie lifts its EPS forecasts by 6.1% for FY26 and 4.3% for FY27. Target rises to $2.04 from $1.79 including the FY26 guidance.

The stock is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral on valuation grounds.

Target price is $2.04 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If CNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.12, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CNI as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes Centuria Capital's FY25 result and guidance beat consensus, strengthening its Overweight thesis on the stock. The broker expects FY26 consensus EPS forecast to be upgraded.

FY26 EPS guidance of 13.4c is higher than the consensus of 12.8c. The 10% estimated growth is driven by $1bn real estate acquisitions planned in FY26, launch of new real estate funds and potential new listed vehicles.

The broker reckons around -300bps interest rate savings from upcoming debt repayment may also be a factor behind the higher EPS guidance.

On the AI-focused ResetData the company expects to be profitable in FY26, highlighting it is in advanced discussions with first AI customers.

Target price $2.20. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.05
If CNI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.12, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CNI as Neutral (3) -

Centuria Capital's FY25 operating profit was 1% ahead of UBS despite costs relating to ResetData. The result saw strong cash conversion of 116% in contrast to 1H25 at 26%. FY26 earnings guidance is 3% ahead of consensus.

UBS revises its FY26-30 earnings forecast to reflect a more benign interest rate environment, supporting better asset under management growth and improved asset values.

The broker sees FY26-29 earnings CAGR at 4.3% with potential upside should Centuria be in a position to launch new planned listed funds and other growth initiatives over FY26-27.

Despite the strong momentum shown in the result, UBS retains Neutral given recent strong price performance already somewhat reflecting the better macro backdrop. Target rises to $2.10 from $1.81.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If CNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.12, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CSL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

The key disappointment for Bell Potter in CSL's FY25 result was the modest 1% 2H25 growth in Behring due to -1% decline in immunoglobulin sales. There was a boost from Seqirus avian flu contracts which is unlikely to repeat in FY26.

Overall, FY25 net profit beat the consensus and the broker's forecast as lower tax and opex offset soft revenue growth.

The outlook was also disappointing with management no longer committing to Behring margin recovery by FY27-28; the broker is now assuming delay to FY29.

The company is targeting US$525m annualised cost savings but the net impact is uncertain to the broker due to reinvestment commitments.

The operational rationale for the Seqirus spin-out is clear to the broker, but valuation uplift is seen limited due to weak vaccine demand and a soft growth outlook.

Target cut to $240 from $305. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy, with Nov 5 Capital Market Day eyed for details of management's strategic review.

Target price is $240.00 Current Price is $225.50 Difference: $14.5
If CSL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $282.68, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

CSL’s FY25 result was mixed, according to Citi. The broker highlights slower progress at Behring and an unexpected decision to demerge Seqirus by the end of FY26.

The Behring gross margin recovery has been pushed out to FY30 from FY28, highlight the analysts, while around half of the -US$500m cost-out savings will be reinvested, leaving US$200m net after-tax by FY28.

The broker points out immunoglobulin sales rose 7% in FY25, but growth will be limited in FY26 due to the US Part D impact (prescription drug benefit program under Medicare) and loss of a UK tender, before rebounding from FY27.

FY26 revenue guidance is around -3% below consensus, although profit (NPATA) of US$3.45-3.55bn and a US$500m buyback are supportive, suggests the broker.

Citi reduces its FY27-28 EPS forecasts by -5% to -9% due to slower Behring recovery, partly offset by lower operating costs from the restructuring program. The broker cuts its target price to $300 from $335 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $300.00 Current Price is $225.50 Difference: $74.5
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $282.68, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

On further inspection Macquarie highlights the demerger of Seqirus will facilitate faster cost out, capital allocation and ability to focus on opportunities. Subject to approval, the demerger is targeted for the end of FY26.

Management continues to see double-digit earnings growth in the medium term, boosted by cost outs and reinvestment into revenue growth initiatives.

Macquarie lowers its EPS forecasts by -2% for FY26 and -5% for FY27. Target price retreats to $295.90, down -15% due to EPS and forex changes. Outperform retained with a positive longer-term view.

****

Today's FY25 result by CSL showed profit (NPATA) 2% ahead of Macquarie and consensus, with revenue and earnings (EBIT) slightly below expectations.

Lower tax and interest supported the profit outcome, notes the broker (in an early assessment) while Behring underperformed on weaker immunoglobulin revenue.

Seqirus delivered revenue growth offset by margin pressure, and Vifor exceeded expectations on both revenue and margins, explains the analyst.

The broker notes FY26 constant currency guidance of 4-5% revenue growth and NPATA of US$3.45-3.55bn, implying 7-10% year-on-year growth. The analyst had forecast near the midpoint at US$3.51bn.

Management expects a US$60m currency tailwind if current rates hold.

The company announced plans for a potential Seqirus demerger by FY26-end, a $750m buyback in FY26, and a cost-out program targeting US$500-550m annual savings by FY28, mostly delivered in FY27.

Target price is $295.90 Current Price is $225.50 Difference: $70.4
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $282.68, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley is retaining a positive medium to longer-term view on CSL despite the FY25 result highlighting weak trends in immunoglobulin (lg).

Revenue growth in lg was 7% but 2H declined to a -1% fall due to medicare changes and tender losses in UK/Mexico.

The company shelved the previous goal of 57% margin by FY27-28 for Behring and the broker is estimating the pre-covid margin to be reached in FY30.

The broker is also assuming cost savings of -US$500m by end-FY28 to be reinvested into growth initiatives, underpinning growth momentum. The revised FY26 net profit forecast is US$3.479bn vs guidance of US$3.45-3.55bn.

The broker sees Seqirus as a drag (-2% compounded annual growth rate), meaning the investment case rests heavily on Behring delivering growth.

Overweight. Target cut to $291 from $303. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $291.00 Current Price is $225.50 Difference: $65.5
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $282.68, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Morgans notes CSL delivered FY25 results broadly in line, with profit (NPATA) of US$3.22bn up 11% and revenue of US$15.56bn up 5%.

Margins expanded, with gross margin up 20bps to 54.3% and operating margin up 10bps to 29.8%, while operating cash flow rose 29% to US$3.56bn, supporting a 12% lift in the dividend.

The broker highlights Behring’s softer performance due to Medicare Part D reform in the US and tender timing, though underlying demand remains robust.

Restructuring was the key strategic update, suggest the analysts, with management targeting US$500-550m in pre-tax savings by 2028, a planned Seqirus demerger, and a US$500m buyback starting in FY26.

Morgans sees these initiatives as a positive move simplifying the portfolio, sharpening operational focus, and supporting margin expansion.

Vifor grew 8% with margin improvement, while Seqirus fell -9% on weak immunisation rates but is showing signs of stabilisation, suggests the broker.

Although management withdrew its FY27-28 margin timeline, gross margin gains and lower cost/litre initiatives support further improvement, in the analysts' view.

Morgans makes modest forecast earnings downgrades of up to -2.2% for FY26-27. The target price falls to $293.83 from $303.70 and the broker retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $293.83 Current Price is $225.50 Difference: $68.33
If CSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $282.68, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

While CSL’s FY25 result was marginally ahead of market profit expectations, Ord Minnett notes the composition disappointed. The broker points to weakness in immunoglobulin, lost UK tenders, and US Medicare changes weighing on Behring.

Seqirus and Vifor performed better than forecast, but a lower tax rate and interest expenses flattered the bottom line, highlights the analyst.

Ord Minnett has concerns around CSL’s plan to spin off Seqirus by FY26, arguing limited visibility on segment earnings and the absence of pure-play influenza comparables undermines the strategic rationale.

A restructure targeting US$500-550m of annualised cost savings over three years requires -US$700-770m in one-off costs. The  broker doubts management can achieve the savings and sees sales and marketing investment as more appropriate.

With CSL abandoning its 3-5 year timeline for Behring margin recovery, Ord Minnett sees added uncertainty and complexity in the investment case.

The broker cuts its EPS forecasts by -1-8% for FY26-FY28 and by -12% beyond. Ord Minnett lowers its target price to $258.00 from $310.00 and downgrades by two ratings notches to Hold from Buy.

Target price is $258.00 Current Price is $225.50 Difference: $32.5
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $282.68, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

CSL's de-rating post its FY25 result reflects operating growth concerns following a disappointing Behring performance and greater focus on cost savings, UBS suggests.

Commentary suggests this created an overreaction to a modest compositional change in CSL's three-year earnings growth.

Even after allowing for a smaller R&D premium, UBS believes CSL is undervalued in a status-quo operating environment.

The broker does acknowledge it is hard to see a re-rating catalyst with confidence around Behring unlikely to return in the first half FY26 and ongoing earnings tail risk from Trump's drug price war and tariffs.

With de-rating overdone, UBS retains Buy. Target falls to $300 from $310.

Target price is $300.00 Current Price is $225.50 Difference: $74.5
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $282.68, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DGT as Buy (1) -

Digico Infrastructure REIT's FY25 revenue was 9% above consensus and earnings 3% above.

Sydney CBD data centre demand remains strong, however the lack of government certification, together with Digico's lack of large chunks of available MW capacity had excluded it from being able to take advantage of the demand/supply imbalance to date, UBS notes.

Now certification has been achieved, Digico has commenced its Densification & Optimisation project to enhance the existing MW layout and the 9MW expansion should come online early in the fourth quarter FY26.

UBS continues to like the story, albeit recognises there is a bit more heavy lifting in FY26 and in UBS' view, this could be more back-end weighted - which increases the complexity. Target falls to $4.90 from $5.60, Buy retained.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $2.76 Difference: $2.14
If DGT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 52.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DRR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie downgrades Deterra Royalties to Neutral from Outperform due to the strong share price performance. No change in the $4.20 target price.

FY25 earnings came in as expected, with slightly higher revenue and earnings (EBITDA) by 3% and 6%, respectively, above consensus, while net profit after tax was 1% above forecast.

The analyst noted a changing revenue mix, with Mining Area C (MAC) now at nameplate, Deterra's core revenue is expected to be less exposed to iron ore prices in the absence of additional volume growth.

Management continues to point to Thacker Pass, with first production in 2027 as a significant cash generator in the longer term, with divestments of non-core assets also on the table.

Full year dividend per share of 22c, with 13c fully franked in 2H, was in line, reflecting a 75% payout ratio.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.08, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DXS as Buy (1) -

Today's FY25 result by Dexus was broadly in line with UBS' expectations, with funds from operations (FFO) of $677.2m against the broker at $674.1m and consensus at $668.8m.

FFO per security was 63.0c, while a distribution of 37cpu was declared, slightly below the broker's 37.8c estimate.

Net property income (NPI) was softer in office and industrial, offset by stronger management earnings, explain the analysts in their first take on results. Funds under management (FUM) fell -$3.2bn to $35.6bn due to transitions and disposals.

The broker notes office occupancy eased to 92.3% with incentives at 26.8%, while industrial occupancy was steady at 96.2%.

Guidance for FY26 is for a distribution of 37cpu against UBS at 38cpu and adjusted FFO of 44.5-45.5cpu against UBS at 45.8c.

Target $8.84. Buy rating.

Target price is $8.84 Current Price is $7.49 Difference: $1.35
If DXS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.82, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVT as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

EVT Ltd has acquired Pro-invest Hotels’ third-party hotel management business for -$74m, including -$30m deferred, with management projecting annual earnings (EBITDA) of $8-9m, including synergies.

Ord Minnett explains Pro-invest manages 15 hotels with 3,196 keys across A&NZ, and while common in the US, the model is at an early stage of adoption locally.

The sector offers significant growth potential across A&NZ and Asia Pacific, in the broker's opinion, though some hotel owners may see a conflict of interest given EVT also operates its own brands.

The broker has lifted its EPS forecasts by 2% for FY26 and 3% for FY27 following the acquisition. The target price rises to $18.94 from $17.89 and the rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

Target price is $18.94 Current Price is $17.50 Difference: $1.44
If EVT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.70, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GPT as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

GPT Group delivered strong first-half 2025 earnings, assesses Ord Minnett, with funds from operations (FFO) up 4.4% year-on-year. An interim distribution of 12cpu was declared.

Office assets outperformed with like-for-like net property income growth of 6.5%, retail rose 5.6%, and logistics grew 5%, highlights the analyst.

Management expects occupancy of 94% in office and near full levels in retail and logistics.

Assets under management (AUM) rose $2.2bn to $36.6bn, and guidance suggests to the broker 3% FFO growth in 2025 to at least 33.2cpu, with distributions of at least 24cpu.

Ord Minnett lifts its FFO forecasts by 2.2% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026 and 2.7% for 2027, and raises its target price to $5.30 from $5.15. The rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate on valuation.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.43 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If GPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HMC as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

HMC Capital's FY25 result fell short of Morgans' expectations, with pre-tax operating EPS of 56c up 51% year-on-year but -17% below the broker's forecast and 15% below guidance.

FY26 pre-tax operating EPS guidance of at least 40cpu was in line with the broker but -7% adrift of the consensus estimate, with distributions held at 12cpu.

The shortfall was mainly due to weaker performance fees in Private Equity and softer Health, Digital, and Energy strategies, explains the analyst, though operating EPS benefited from lower tax.

The broker sees real estate funds under management (FUM) as the main growth driver, with deployment across unlisted funds and capital recycling expected to support expansion in FY26. 

HMC Capital trades at a discount to book value, highlights Morgans, implying the market views it as ex-growth, a position the broker does not share.

Potential catalysts include resolution of Healthscope negotiations, a major lease at Digital Infrastructure, and a sell-down of the Energy Transition Fund, all of which could restore investor confidence.

Morgans upgrades its rating to Buy from Hold with an unchanged $4.20 target, viewing the balance sheet as sound and the turnaround path achievable over the next twelve months.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $0.93
If HMC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.07, suggesting upside of 57.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HSN as Buy (1) -

UBS suggests shares in Hansen Technologies could trade lower until clarity emerges on FY26 revenue and margins.

At first glace, UBS observes today's Hansen Technologies’ FY25 result was in line with prior guidance, with revenue of $393m and cash earnings (EBITDA) of $93m, up 22% with margins improving 200bps to 23.8%.

Recurring SaaS and support revenue grew 10% year-on-year in the second half, while services revenue fell -1% and upfront licence sales were strong at $50m, highlights the broker. Management had previously anticipated more than $40m.

UBS notes leverage has fallen to 0.2 times and cash generation normalised in the second half.

Management did not provide explicit FY26 guidance, instead outlining medium-term targets of 5-7% annual revenue growth and a 30% earnings (EBITDA) margin, compared with 28.5% in FY25.

The broker highlights consensus assumes 5% revenue growth and a 29% margin for FY26, though the strong one-off licence revenue in FY25 may not repeat.

Buy. Target $7.00.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.95 Difference: $1.05
If HSN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Hub24's FY25 EBITDA met Bell Potter's forecast but missed the consensus. Identified highlights are strong net profit and cash flow, with the company ending FY25 with $84.9m cash with hints at bolt-on acqusitions.

One other highlight was the outlook, with the pathway to $148-162bn FUA by FY27 looking credible as adviser-driven net flows accelerate. The target for FY26 is $123-135bn, and the broker notes $2.6bn net flow was already achieved in the first six weeks of FY26.

The broker upgraded FY26 FUA forecast by 1% and FY27 by 2%, resulting in a 1% lift to FY26 EBITDA forecast and a 2% rise to FY27. EPS forecasts for FY26-27 lifted by 11% and 10%, respectively.

Buy. Target rises to $125 from $115.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $109.58 Difference: $15.42
If HUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $102.59, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Hub24's FY25 result showed profit of $98m, up 44% year-on-year and 4% ahead of forecasts by Citi and consensus, mainly due to lower tax.

Underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $162m was -3% below the broker’s forecast and -2% below consensus, reflecting softer revenue, while costs were in line.

The broker notes FY26 operating expense growth is now expected in the mid-teens, less than previously anticipated from data on hiring analysis.

Early FY26 flows are up around 30% year-on-year, supporting management’s confidence and underpinning net flow assumptions in the FY27 funds under administration (FUA) guidance, suggest the analysts.

Revenue margin pressure was a negative, with platform margins declining -2bps year-on-year to 32bps, and Citi now assumes around 31bps in FY26 due to fee tiering. Group EBITDA margins are forecast to expand by 170bps to 42.2% in FY26.

Citi sees potential for strong flows to drive upgrades at the first-quarter update but notes valuation looks full. The broker raises its target price by 21% to $109 and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $109.00 Current Price is $109.58 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $102.59, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes Hub24's FY25 results confirmed ongoing momentum across active users, up 13%, and funds under administration per adviser up 16%, with the company achieving 33% of total Australian advisers and an additional 44% of advisers covered by distribution agreements.

The average funds under administration per adviser at $22m compares to the industry average at $76m per adviser, giving Hub24 growth potential.

Platform funds under administration rose 34% with record net flows up 25% to $19.8bn. FY26 has started well, with Aug 14 funds under administration up 4.7% since the end of FY25, inferring net flow of around $2.6bn in the current quarter.

Macquarie tweaks its EPS forecasts by -0.8% for FY26 and -3.8% for FY27.

Target price is raised around 7.7% to $103.30 from $95.90. No change in Neutral rating. Macquarie expects 14% compound average EPS growth from FY25-FY30, with management continuing to translate operational performance into results.

Target price is $103.30 Current Price is $109.58 Difference: minus $6.28 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $102.59, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HUB as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights Hub24's FY25 result backs its Overweight rating and sees modestly higher upgrade to consensus 12-month EPS.

FY25 result was in line with consensus but the highlight was trading update pointing to 1Q26 FUA tracking ahead of the consensus.

Platform FUA was $118bn as of Aug 14 and if the run-rate continues, the broker expects $10.6bn addition in 1Q26 to $123.3bn.

The company's FY26 guidance is $123-135bn and the target for FY27 is $148-162bn.

Target price $115. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $109.58 Difference: $5.42
If HUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $102.59, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HUB as Hold (3) -

Hub24 delivered a strong FY25, in Morgans' view. The broker highlights profit of $97.8m up 44% year-on-year and earnings (EBITDA) of $162.4m up 38%.

Funds under administration (FUA) rose 34% to $112.7bn on net inflows of $19.8bn, while adviser numbers grew 13% to 5,097.

Margins expanded, with the platform earnings margin reaching 44.2%, while cash conversion was 98% and the balance sheet closed with $85m net cash, highlights the broker.

Management has rolled forward its FUA target to $148-162bn by FY27, implying to the analysts growth of 31-44%. Current FUA already stands at $118bn, with flows on track to exceed $4bn in the current quarter.

Morgans highlights material upside potential given only a third of advisers currently use the platform, while average FUA per adviser remains well below industry averages.

Momentum is also building in new segments, observes the broker, with the low-cost Discover product reaching $1.9bn since launch and HUB24 Private expanding the high-net-worth offering.

Morgans sees continued scale benefits, margin expansion, and new service traction driving sustainable long-term growth.

The broker makes minor EPS forecast upgrades due to a lower tax rate.  The target rises to $110.60 from $83.10 driven by changes to the analysts' forecasts and longer-term cash flow assumptions. Morgans retains a Hold rating.

Target price is $110.60 Current Price is $109.58 Difference: $1.02
If HUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $102.59, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Hub24's FY25 profit beat on lower quality factors, UBS notes, with an earnings miss in the key Platforms division due to weaker revenue margins.

UBS remains optimistic on Hub's longer-term outlook with forecast cumulative flows 16% above consensus to FY30, coupled with operating leverage driving FY26-30 earnings growth of 19%pa.

However, the broker equally believes valuations have run too hard for now and imply below adequate internal rates of returns for investors, with Hub's relative PE 29% above its historical average. Target rises to $112 from $105, downgrade to Neutral from Buy.

Target price is $112.00 Current Price is $109.58 Difference: $2.42
If HUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $102.59, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

At first take, Iluka Resources reported generally in line 1H2025 results. Revenue was within 1% of consensus with earnings (EBITDA) broadly meeting expectations.

Mineral sands earnings missed by -5%, offset by a higher contribution from Deterra Royalties ((DRR)). Group net profit after tax came in 6% above consensus but met Macquarie's forecast. The interim dividend at 2c missed consensus forecast by -1c but met the analyst's.

The miner offered a 3Q zircon update for the first time with 30kt of zircon sands contracted at a price of around US$80/t, which is below 2Q25. Consensus forecasts stood at 50kt with a largely flat price.

Macquarie views the results as "solid" with in line cash flow. A weaker mineral sands market is a headwind for 3Q25 results.

Outperform rated. Target $6.50.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.59 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.76, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JDO as Neutral (3) -

Judo Capital’s FY25 profit before tax of $126m was in line with Citi’s expectations and slightly ahead of consensus. The broker notes margin volatility in the fourth quarter and competitive pressure, though cost reductions helped offset these.

The analysts highlight management’s diversification into warehouse lending, savings products and potential whole loan sales as providing greater flexibility to manage growth and risk over time.

The broker forecasts FY26 profit before tax will rise by around 43%, placing the stock on 16 times P/E. It's felt valuation is full at above 1.1 times book value for a 7% return on equity.

Citi lifts its earnings forecasts by 1-4% across the forecast period on higher net interest margin and lower bad debts.

The broker raises its target price to $1.85 from $1.60 and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.09
If JDO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.06, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JDO as Outperform (1) -

Judo Capital's FY25 result was a beat against consensus pre-provision earnings, but Macquarie feels the real focus was on FY26 guidance which did not infer an upgrade from around 50% earnings growth.

The analyst did like the greater detail offered by Judo, which lays a roadmap of the blocks to achieving growth.

Management seem to be executing well on strategic goals of moving into new markets and generating growth levers. Macquarie continues to forecast over 30% compound EPS growth over the next few years.

A new savings product should provide additional funding options and offer more competitive term or at-call deposits to the market.

Macquarie tweaks its EPS estimates by -4% for FY26, and FY27 is unchanged. Target price moves to $1.90 from $1.80. No change to Outperform rating

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.14
If JDO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.06, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JDO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley is disappointed with Judo Capital's FY26 profit before tax guidance which is lower at $180-190m, given it believed the previous $190m guidance was conservative.

However, the Overweight thesis is unchanged as the bank is still expected to deliver strong earnings growth with return on equity expected to improve to 9% over the next two years.

The 2H margin improvement to 3.04% was a positive, along with 3-3.1% guidance which the broker finds believable given the bank hasn't missed margin forecast since mid-2023. The broker is forecasting 3.1%.

Guidance for lower credit quality was a negative and a key reason for EPS downgrade, though the broker is also taking comfort from stable non-performing loan ratio. 

Target rises to $2.15 from $2.10 on higher book value per share. Overweight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.39
If JDO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.06, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JDO as Accumulate (2) -

Judo Capital’s FY25 result and FY26 guidance were slightly below Morgans' expectations, though cash return on equity (ROE) rose by 40bps to 5.3%.

The broker expects operating leverage to lift ROE by 200bps in FY26, with earnings more than doubling over the next two years.

FY26 profit (PBT) guidance of $180-190m implies to the analyst 43-51% growth, with forecasts trimmed to the mid-point.

Net interest margins (NIMs) are expected to expand to 3.2% by FY27, while loan book growth was constrained by elevated run-off, observes the broker, though management sees around 20% as sustainable long term.

Morgans raises its target by 17% to $2.04 and maintains an Accumulate rating. Capital growth is the sole driver of returns as Judo retains earnings to fund expansion, explains the analyst.

Target price is $2.04 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.28
If JDO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.06, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JDO as Buy (1) -

Judo Capital's FY25 result was in line, featuring a strong fourth quarter, notably on lending growth, UBS suggests, but also benefitting substantially from positive jaws in the second half.

Operationally, Judo is tracking in line with expectations, and UBS remains constructive around the investment case and long term growth potential.

For a stock with an expected compound annual earnings growth rate of 36% over the next three years versus 2% for the sector, Judo should trade closer to 25x PE, reflecting a scarcity premium around growth in both global banks and the ASX200, in UBS' view.

Buy and $2.20 target retained.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.44
If JDO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.06, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

James Hardie’s quarterly result released overnight was materially below Citi’s expectations, with earnings (EBIT) of $169m around -20% below consensus of $212m.

North America was the key drag, with sales -11% and EBIT -22% versus the broker's forecasts, while APAC was slightly weaker and Europe a small positive.

The broker notes FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance implies around US$1.1bn at the midpoint, of which US$250-265m is from AZEK, leaving core James Hardie at about US$842m. This represents a -20-25% miss to prior guidance of above $1.1bn.

Citi estimates implied FY26 EPS of around US79c per share, which at a 65c exchange rate translates to a 36 times P/E multiple, well above peers in the mid-20s. The broker suggests the shares could trade towards $30-36 if the market applies more peer-like multiples.

The broker makes no changes to forecasts at this stage. 

Neutral. Target $41.50.

Target price is $41.50 Current Price is $44.34 Difference: minus $2.84 (current price is over target).
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.97, suggesting upside of 46.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MND as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Monadelphous Group's FY25 group revenue of $2.27bn beat Bell Potter's forecast of $2.19bn. Net profit was, however, in line with forecast as outperformance at the revenue line was offset by weaker-than-expected EBITDA margin in 2H.

The Engineering Construction and Maintenance & Industrial Services divisions beat expectations and the company noted $2.5bn of new contracts and extensions were secured so far in FY26. 

The company pointed to positive momentum in renewable energy infrastructure construction and energy industries, and sees opportunities for near-term growth in sustaining capital projects.

Greenfield resource/energy project pipeline are, however, slowing. The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast by 9% and FY27 by 7%, mainly on higher revenue forecasts.

Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell, with the broker waiting to see if contract momentum builds in renewable energy and storage and transmission sector. Target lifted to $19.50 from $16.50.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $21.01 Difference: minus $1.51 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.13, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MND as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Following further analysis of Monadelphous Group's FY25 results, Citi raises its target to $23.60 from $19.95 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

The broker raises its earnings forecasts and applies a higher valuation multiple, seeing scope for an upgrade cycle beginning around the AGM in three month's time.

A summary of the broker's initial view of FY25 results follows.

Citi, at first take, views the Monadelphous Group FY25 result as “solid,” with revenue up 4%, which is better than expected and 3% above consensus.

Engineering & Construction revenue beat Maintenance & Industrial Services, but both were better than anticipated by 6% and 3%, respectively. Underlying earnings (EBITDA) were better than the analyst’s forecast but in line with consensus.

Secured work balances came in above 1H25 levels at $2.5bn versus $1.5bn in 1H25. A dividend of 72c was 3%-4% better than expected.

Management offered optimistic commentary, the analyst states, and notes the company is “positioned for growth in FY26.”

Citi points to a focus on growth in the energy sector, including energy transition opportunities. Shares are expected to react positively given the outlook and good result.

Target price is $23.60 Current Price is $21.01 Difference: $2.59
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.13, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MND as Outperform (1) -

Heading into the FY25 result, Macquarie had noted Monadelphous Group could achieve a beat, which transpired with net profit after tax coming in 6% above consensus with strong revenue growth of 12%.

Maintenance had a 2H bounce in revenue, up 14% on the prior period after a weaker 1H result, with management pointing to a good start in 1H26 which should underpin growth.

The company is more upbeat than normal regarding the outlook and believes it is "positioned for growth in FY26" with a robust pipeline of committed work. There is also increasing availability of renewables works as well as iron ore, oil & gas.

Balance sheet remains robust with net cash of circa $200m, which, the report notes, offers optionality on acquisitions.

Target raised to $22.17 from $18.83. No change to Outperform rating. Macquarie raises its EPS forecasts by 5% for FY26 and 4% for FY27.

Target price is $22.17 Current Price is $21.01 Difference: $1.16
If MND meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.13, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MND as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Following FY25 results for Monadelphous Group, Morgans raises its target to $24.40 from $19.50 and upgrades to Buy from Accumulate.

The broker assesses a strong FY25, highlighting normalised earnings (EBITDA) of $152m, up 19% year-on-year, and margins improving to 6.7%. Profit rose 28% to $79.3m.

The full-year dividend increased 24% to 72c, representing a 90% payout.

The analyst believes Engineering & Construction revenue is set to accelerate, with the FY26 order book of $570m well ahead of expectations.

Support is derived from Rio Tinto's ((RIO)) Pilbara replacement program and a revival of oil and gas projects such as Jansz IO, Pluto 1, and Cruz, explains the broker. These higher-margin projects are expected to drive further upside to profitability.

Maintenance volumes are also expected to step up significantly over FY26 and FY27.

Morgans upgrades FY26 and FY27 revenue forecasts by 8% and 9%, respectively,  and earnings (EBITDA) by 10-12%, with profit forecasts lifted by 8-11%. 

Target price is $24.40 Current Price is $21.01 Difference: $3.39
If MND meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.13, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MND as Neutral (3) -

Monadelphous delivered a solid FY25 result, UBS notes, with earnings 4% ahead of consensus. The stronger result was driven by better than guided revenue growth.

FY25 revenues increased by 12%. Looking into FY26, Monadelphous did not provide quantitative revenue growth guidance, but did speak to its confidence in delivering earnings growth in the year ahead.

UBS highlights an increased workforce (25% on 1H25), order book (22% year on year) and book-to-bill (1.2x) as factors that support the growth outlook. Later year forecast upgrades and an increased implied multiple take the broker's target up to $21.00 from $16.00, Neutral retained.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $21.01 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.13, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MYS as Buy (1) -

Mystate reported an in line result according to Ord Minnett, with both profit and final dividend meeting expectations.

The flat Mystate results were offset by a rebound in earnings from the merged Auswide business against lower TPT Wealth earnings.

Commentary suggests synergies from the Auswide merger should accelerate in FY27 and FY28 as the cost of integration pulls back.

Ord Minnett tweaks its earnings forecast to reflect back-end synergies, with FY26 up 4% and FY27 down -1%.

Buy. Target price $4.58.

Mystate is viewed as an appealing income stock with a high fully franked yield of 5.2%, with dividend growth above peer banks and small caps over the next three years.

Target price is $4.58 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: $0.02
If MYS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Sell (5) -

Following a further review of National Australia Bank's 3Q results, Citi raises its target by $1.00 to $31.50 and maintains a Sell rating.

A summary of the broker's initial thoughts follows.

Citi's initial look at National Australia Bank's 3Q25 results showed in-line earnings of $1.77bn, which met consensus but were above forecast by 7%.

Core earnings beat consensus by circa 3% on better net interest income and lower costs. NIM came in at around 1.78%, some 8bps better than anticipated, of which 4bps came from markets & treasury and liquids.

The bank generated loan growth of 2% in the quarter on the prior quarter across all segments. Compared to peers, its customer deposits were generally stable, which, commentary suggests, should have offered some price and mix benefits over the quarter.

Bad and doubtful debts of -$254m were higher than forecast due to a 5bps rise in non-performing loans. Payroll remediation is likely to be viewed by the market as a one-off item. Citi believes it is a good result with the market likely to look for a return to deposit growth.

Sell. Target $30.50.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $40.54 Difference: minus $9.04 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.91, suggesting downside of -17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RGN as Buy (1) -

Region Group's FY25 FFO/share of 15.5c met Bell Potter and the consensus forecasts and FY26 guidance of at least 15.9c was higher than the broker's estimate.

The broker notes leasing outcomes are improving and cost control is supporting net operating income growth. Gearing was at 32.5%, at the low end of target, leaving capacity for buyback (5% completed), development or acquisitions.

WACR tightened to 5.97% in 2H25 from 6.08% in 1H25, and the broker expects a further -30bps compression in the next 12 months based on recent retail transactions.

Minor upgrades to FFO/share forecasts. Target rises to $2.70 from $2.65. Buy retained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.39 Difference: $0.31
If RGN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RGN as Buy (1) -

Region Group’s result was in line with Citi’s expectations, with the broker noting the REIT has returned to growth as the cycle begins to turn in its favour.

Comparable net operating income rose 3.2% on moderating property expenses, explain the analysts, while the portfolio recorded 97.5% occupancy and 5.4% specialty vacancy.

The broker highlights 372 leasing deals with average spreads of 3.7% and 81% tenant retention, alongside 5% specialty rent growth since FY22. Average annual rent reviews of 4.3% apply to 94% of tenants, while 21.7MW of solar PV is now operational across 33 sites.

Management is assessing capital allocation options including acquisitions and potential buybacks, with non-discretionary sales continuing to underpin growth, highlights Citi.Supermarket sales rose 3.3% and non-discretionary specialty sales increased 3.7%.

Citi lifts its funds from operations (FFO) and adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) forecasts for FY26 and FY27.

The broker keeps its $2.40 target and Buy rating.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.39 Difference: $0.01
If RGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RGN as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie downgrades Region Group to Underperform from Neutral as the stock is trading broadly in line with its long-term metrics.

The REIT reported FY25 funds from operations of 15.5c, up 0.6%, which met both guidance and Macquarie/consensus expectations.

The CEO, Anthony Mellows, will retire and the succession plan is underway.

FY26 funds from operations guidance is for 2.6% growth to 15.9c, which meets consensus and is above the analyst's estimate by 1.1%. FY26 dividend guidance stands at 14c, a rise of 2.2%.

FUM grew 9.8% in 2H over 1H25 to $747.3m, and gearing stands at the lower end of the target range at 32.5%.

Target price is raised to $2.21 from $2.16.

Target price is $2.21 Current Price is $2.39 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If RGN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RGN as Neutral (3) -

Region Group delivered in-line FY25 earnings and FY26 guidance, although momentum is improving across the business. In UBS' view, a moderation of cost growth was a highlight after a period of escalation.

While property expenses were up 3% year on year they were down -10% across 1H/2H, driven largely by cost initiatives and electricity savings from solar investment.

Looking into FY26, top line growth of 4-4.5% is expected to increasingly flow to earnings, UBS notes, with property expense growth of 3-3.5% assumed.

Region Group has performed strongly since the February result and UBS now sees it as fair value versus the sector. Target rises to $2.40 from $2.30, Neutral retained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.39 Difference: $0.01
If RGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RWC as Buy (1) -

Following further analysis of Reliance Worldwide's FY25 results, Citi lowers its FY26 and FY27 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -5% and -6%, respectively. FY27 gross profit is expected to exceed FY25 despite near-term margin pressure.

The broker cuts its target price to $5.00 from $5.25 and retains a Buy rating.

FNArena's summary of Citi's initial research follows.

At first glance, Reliance Worldwide reported an in-line FY25 earnings (EBITDA) result, with slightly lower than expected depreciation & amortisation and interest, resulting in a slight 2% beat for net profit after tax, Citi notes.

Good cost management underpinned a better-than-forecast Americas earnings (EBIT) result by 5%, despite lower volumes, with a higher margin by 20bps.

There was an impact from tariffs of -$3.3m in 2H25, and EMEA largely met expectations, but conditions remain challenging.

APAC was the ongoing miss, with earnings (EBIT) down notably to $14m from $26m, with consolidated results “messy,” the analyst states, due to the transfer of Sharkbite Max.

Management only offered six-month guidance due to the high degree of uncertainty, with 1H26 looking like a miss at first peek, but post adjustment for pull-forward, the results outlook appears flat.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.29 Difference: $0.71
If RWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RWC as Outperform (1) -

Reliance Worldwide reported in line FY25 results according to Macquarie, although FY26 guidance came in weaker than expected as market conditions remain challenging across all geographies.

Cost cutting continued with cash conversion of 98% achieved, and net working capital was stable despite an increase in inventory of US$18m from tariff and forex impacts.

Macquarie believes management is doing a "formidable" job on tariffs, with revised guidance of US tariff impact of -US$25m to -US$30m in FY26 and near complete mitigation in FY27.

A maintained Outperform is based on management's excellent execution and weaker conditions delaying improvements, but the company is well positioned for volume recovery.

Macquarie lowers its EPS estimates by -9% for FY26 and -7% for FY27, with lower APAC margins, weakening top-line American growth from pricing, and EMEA volumes.

Target slips to $5.30 from $5.55.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.29 Difference: $1.01
If RWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RWC as Equal-weight (3) -

Reliance Worldwide's FY25 result was in line with consensus, Morgan Stanley observes, but the broker predicts the next 12-month consensus EPS forecast will be lowered modestly based on 1H26 outlook.

FY25 sales were in line with the consensus, adjusted EBITDA missed by -1% while adjusted EPS was 2% higher.

The company expects no improvement in activity in 1H26, with EBITDA margin expected to be lower y/y on lower volumes and tariff impact.

Specifically, mitigating actions related to tariff are expected to have US$25-30m net cost impact vs US$25-35m flagged previously.

The broker cut FY26 EPS forecast by -13% and FY27 by -7%, seeing a re-rate as unlikely until there's evidence of the cycle turning and tariff mitigation strategies are successfully implemented.

Equal-weight. Target trimmed to $4.35 from $4.60. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.29 Difference: $0.06
If RWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RWC as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

In the wake of FY25 results for Reliance Worldwide, Morgans cuts its FY26-28 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by between -6-12% and lowers its target price to $4.50 from $5.45. The broker also downgrades its rating to Hold from Buy.

The result was broadly in line with the analyst's expectations, with sales up 6% to US$1,315m and earnings (EBITDA) up 1% to US$278m.

Margins fell -90bps to 21.1%, though excluding Holman (specialises in plumbing, garden watering, and irrigation products) they were flat, supported by -$17.4m in cost savings and $2.3m in synergies.

The broker notes conditions remain weak across all regions, with Americas sales down -2% and earnings down -1% due to subdued remodel demand. APAC region sales rose 43% on the Holman acquisition but margins were softer than expected.

EMEA sales fell -4% and earnings dropped -3%, with the the short-term outlook for the UK economy appearing mixed to the analyst.

Management guides to mid-single-digit sales declines in the US in the first half of FY26, flat APAC sales, and broadly steady EMEA performance.

US tariffs are expected to cost -US$25-30m in FY26 but should be immaterial in FY27 once mitigation measures are in place, explains the broker.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.29 Difference: $0.21
If RWC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RWC as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett downgrades Reliance Worldwide to Hold from Accumulate due to macro uncertainty, with a decline in the target price to $4.55 from $5.

The company achieved a 0.5% rise in FY25 net profit after tax, a slight beat on the analyst's forecast, with sales revenue rising 5.5% over the period; excluding acquisitions it rose only 0.5%. EMEA sales fell -4.2% and A&NZ sales rose 2.4% excluding the Holman acquisition.

US sales fell -2.1%, with group margins down to 21.2% from 22.2% a year earlier. The balance sheet remains robust.

Ord Minnett believes FY26 is a transitional period for the company, with ongoing headwinds in the US and tariff pressures meaning an emphasis on prices to offset weaker volumes.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $4.29 Difference: $0.26
If RWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RWC as Neutral (3) -

Reliance Worldwide shares have fallen -15% year-to-date due to concerns about tariffs and the US housing market, UBS notes.

However, there had been a recovery over the last month as market expectations for US housing improved, driven by assumptions of a potential Fed rate cut.

Notably, first half revenue guidance fell short of consensus expectations given ongoing pressures on US R&R and housing activity.

UBS notes Reliance's outlook commentary is broadly consistent with recent US homebuilder quarterly updates, macro indicators and channel checks, which point to no tangible signs of a near-term recovery.

The broker nonetheless thinks it is likely Reliance will take a strategic approach to tariff pass-through on pricing in order to maintain its competitive position in key US distribution channels.

Neutral retained, target falls to $4.35 from $4.50.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.29 Difference: $0.06
If RWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SEK as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Seek’s FY25 group revenue met its forecast as volume decline in Australia/NZ was offset by yield improvement. Adjusted net profit also met forecasts while EPS and DPS were a beat.

The company guided to 10% revenue growth in FY26 and 15% EBITDA growth, and the broker revised down volume expectations, resulting in a -13% decline in FY26 EPS forecast and -8% in FY27.

The broker, however, notes yield growth drivers remain strong with double-digit growth likely in Australia/NZ through FY26 and prospect of stronger monetisation in Asia as the freemium model phases out.

Buy. Target rises to $31.45 from $28.40 as the broker highlights prospective 30% adjusted EPS growth through FY26-28 despite downgrades.

Target price is $31.45 Current Price is $27.72 Difference: $3.73
If SEK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.06, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SEK as Buy (1) -

Seek’s FY25 profit of $156m was in line with Citi and consensus, though down -12% year-on-year. Earnings (EBITDA) of $459m also matched forecasts, while a dividend of 46c was ahead of both the broker and consensus.

The broker notes positives included 15% A&NZ yield growth in the second half, stronger Asia guidance with double-digit emerging market growth, and cost control with spend -2% below forecast.

Management's margin expectations are lifted to 50% at current volumes and 55% with a return to FY23 volumes.

The analysts list negatives including a lower A&NZ placement share of 34.9%, softer premium ad mix, and removal of the $2bn FY28 revenue aspiration. Depreciation and amortisation guidance of -$155m-165m was also above consensus.

FY26 guidance implies to Citi 10% revenue growth and profit of $190m-220m, around 1% ahead of consensus at the midpoint.

Buy rating. Target $28.50.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $27.72 Difference: $0.78
If SEK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.06, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SEK as Outperform (1) -

Seek's FY25 earnings results met expectations post downgraded guidance in May, Macquarie notes, with adjusted net profit after tax down -13% on the prior year.

The analyst likes the outlook into FY26 and is forecasting net profit after tax growth of 37%, which is 4% above guidance at the mid-point and is considered conservative.

The new ad ladder is experiencing a good uptake which should support yields into FY26. A&NZ generates more than 90% of earnings and Australian rate cuts should act as a tailwind, with the company guiding to stabilising volumes.

Asia returning to growth is viewed as a small win. Macquarie tweaks its EPS forecasts down by -2% in FY26 and -1% in FY27.

Target price rises 20% to $32.50 due to outer year earnings upgrades in A&NZ with higher yield growth. No change to Outperform rating.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $27.72 Difference: $4.78
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.06, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SEK as Accumulate (2) -

Seek’s FY25 result was broadly in line with Morgans’ expectations, with revenue up 1% to $1.09bn, earnings (EBITDA) down -2% to $459m, and profit down -13% to $155m. A final dividend of 22c surprised positively versus 19c consensus.

The broker highlights strong yield growth of 13% in A&NZ, offsetting an -11% decline in job ad volumes, with Seek maintaining a 34.9% placement share.

Asia delivered flat earnings on 1% revenue growth, with yields up 18% and placement share rising to 26.2%. Free cash flow improved 41% to $203m as capex eased post-platform unification, explains the analyst.

FY26 guidance points to 10% revenue growth, 15% earnings growth, and 32% profit growth at the midpoints, implying margin expansion of around 200bps. Morgans sees this as confirmation of operating leverage benefits following unification.

Morgans trims FY26 and FY27 forecasts by -1% and -3%, respectively, but lifts FY28 by 1%, with the target price increasing to $30 from $27.20. The broker maintains an Accumulate rating.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $27.72 Difference: $2.28
If SEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.06, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SEK as Buy (1) -

UBS saw a solid FY25 result from Seek, highlighting the strength of the business despite challenging macro conditions. The key standout was Asia, with Freemium roll-out progressing faster than management expected. Since the roll-out, Seek has seen positive momentum in core KPIs.

UBS remains confident on A&NZ's yield growth going forward, supported by new AI capabilities (Seek has more data than any competitor) for better candidate-to-job matching, with management highlighting 20-50% of all applications are from "recommend and notify" versus "search".

Seek shares are trading on forward PEs below five-year averages, which UBS sees as attractive in the context. Target rises to $31.00 from $30.10, Buy retained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $27.72 Difference: $3.28
If SEK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.06, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGM as Neutral (3) -

On further inspection, Citi notes FY25 earnings (EBIT) were a slight beat on forecast and consensus for Sims but net profit after tax missed.

Lower volumes led to better margins, boosted by higher non-ferrous revenue, the US tariff impact, with an increased intake of unprocessed scrap which resulted in better shredder utilisation.

Citi lowers its earnings (EBIT) forecasts by -11% and -5% for FY26/FY27 for higher China steel export impacts.

Target falls to $14 from $15.50. Neutral retained.

****

Sims announced FY25 underlying earnings (EBIT) of $175m versus Citi and consensus forecasts of $170m/$164m, respectively. Underlying net profit after tax missed consensus of $90m at $83m, and the dividend of 23c was in line.

North America came in softer than anticipated, while SA Recycling was better than expected. The loss generated from global trading at -$4m was lower, and Australasia reported softer-than-forecast results due to weakness in regional steel prices.

Citi notes US tariffs are boosting US ferrous demand and supporting local demand for ferrous scrap, with the premium expected to move into FY26 from FY25 and boost North American sales and margins. Export sales will continue to face headwinds from record-high Chinese steel exports.

Citi also notes resale prices are being assisted by hyperscale data centre expansion, with stronger US supply chains supported by tariffs.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $14.43 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.36, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGM as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley assesses Sims' FY25 result as a modest shortfall vs consensus, with direction of 12-month EPS likely to be modestly revised lower.

FY25 EBIT rose 198% to $175m, beating the consensus by 6% but net profit, while swinging to positive, fell short of consensus by -7% due to higher tax.

The broker notes the outlook is constructive with tailwinds from non-ferrous demand and US tariff support, and scrap demand driven by data centre/AI adoption and circular economy trends.

On the negative side, Chinese steel export is seen as a drag on ferrous prices. Underweight. Target price $13. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $14.43 Difference: minus $1.43 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.36, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Buy (1) -

On a first look, Citi notes Stockland reported FY25 funds from operations 2% above consensus and towards the top end of guidance. New FY26 FFO guidance is largely in-line, with expectations of residential settlements growth of 16% year on year.

Other positive developments include an exclusive arrangement with EdgeConneX to establish a partnership to develop, own and operate a data centre portfolio, establishing 4 new logistics capital partnerships in FY25.

Looking ahead, management has trimmed the payout ratio guidance to 60-80% over the medium term (75-85% previously) as it is reinvesting to drive further earnings growth, which Citi sees as positive. Buy and $6.00 target retained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.72 Difference: $0.28
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.78, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Today's FY25 result by Stockland was slightly ahead of UBS expectations (at first glance), with post-tax funds from operations (FFO) of $808m versus the broker at $794m and consensus at $796m.

FFO per security was 33.9c and a 25.2c distribution, pre-announced, was declared.

Development earnings exceeded forecasts with 6,865 lot settlements above guidance and the broker’s forecast, while investment earnings were softer, with office dragging.

UBS notes strong momentum in the fourth quarter with 1,848 lot sales, up 36% year-on-year, while default and cancellation rates are normalising.

Net tangible assets (NTA) rose to $4.22, gearing improved to 25.2% within target range, and investment portfolio growth was supported by retail and logistics, highlight the analysts.

Guidance for FY26 is FFO per security of 36-37c, broadly in line with UBS at 36cps, while distribution guidance is steady at 25.2cps, implying a payout ratio of 69% under the revised 60-80% range.

Target $5.55. Buy rating.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $5.72 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.78, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SLC as Buy (1) -

First impressions by UBS suggest Superloop delivered a strong FY25 result, with revenue up 31% year-on-year to $546m, slightly below consensus, and gross profit rising 31% to $190m.

Earnings (EBITDA) grew 70% to $92m, in line with guidance and consensus, while cash EBIT rose 117% to $64m, supported by margin expansion of 460bps to 11.7%, explain the analysts.

Customer numbers increased 10% since December 2024 to 731,000.

UBS believes the consumer division performed well, with revenue up 37% and gross profit of $100m, above consensus, and margins improving to 27.6% in the second half.

Net additions slowed with higher churn following price rises, but 11k customers have joined since the July launch of the Extel plan.

The broker highlights wholesale was softer than expected due to the Symbio removal, though revenue still rose 62% and gross profit 67%, albeit both missing consensus by around -10%.

 Buy rating. Target $3.80.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.26 Difference: $0.54
If SLC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SRG as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights SRG Global's FY25 revenue was in line with its forecast but EBITDA was a beat, driven by stronger-than-expected margin in 2H.

The company guided to 10% growth in FY26 EBITDA and adjusted EBIT, but the broker reckons this is conservative due to strong earnings growth outlook for the subsidiary Diona from contract ramp-ups.

The broker is forecasting 10.8% EBITDA growth and 12.5% adjusted EBIT growth. EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 3% and by 4% for FY27 on higher revenue forecasts.

Buy. Target rises to $1.95 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.21
If SRG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SRG as Buy (1) -

SRG Global delivered a strong FY25 result, assesses Morgans. Profit of $61m was up 51% year-on-year and EPS up 33%. Revenue grew 24% to $1.3bn, with Maintenance up 31% including Diona and Engineering & Construction up 22% organically.

Earnings (EBITDA) rose 29% to $127m with margins improving to 9.6%, while EBITA climbed 43% to $94m.

The broker notes Maintenance revenue (excluding specialist utilities and infrastructure services business Diona) rebounded strongly in the second half, up 11% year-on-year, while Diona itself exceeded expectations.

Contract wins of $850m lifted work-in-hand to $3.6bn, nearly three times annual revenue, providing solid visibility, highlights the analyst.

Looking ahead, Morgans points to multiple FY26 growth drivers including expansion of Diona’s SA Water contract, rising mining volumes from major gold customers, strong demand for water tanks, and potential exposure to Rio Tinto's ((RIO)) Pilbara capex.

Morgans makes small upgrades to FY26-27 forecasts and rolls forward its valuation. The broker raises its target price to $2.10 from $1.80 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.36
If SRG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SRG as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners emphasises SRG Global generated another "standout" result with FY25 earnings (EBITDA) coming in at the upper end of upgraded guidance and FY26 earnings guidance above consensus.

Growth of circa 10% for FY26 earnings (EBITDA) looks conservative but it sits above the analyst's and consensus forecasts.

FY25 revenue advanced 24% on the prior year and underlying earnings (EBITDA) grew 29%. The Diona acquisition has been integrated and achieved robust 2H revenue up 41% on 1H, with a margin of 8.9% up from 8%.

Engineering & construction continue to benefit from early contractor engagement model.

Shaw and Partners increases its EPS forecasts by 5.8% and 5.5% for FY26/FY27, respectively. Buy, High Risk rating retained. Target lifts to $2 from $1.80.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.26
If SRG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie described Transurban Group's FY25 result as in line, with 7.4% growth in PP earnings (EBITDA) against a challenging macro backdrop with slowing employment and weakening registrations, on first glance.

CityLink traffic in 4Q rose 1.4%, Brisbane up 2.3%, Sydney up 2.4% with the WestConnex opening, offset by roadworks on Warringah Expressway. Performance from US roads remained robust.

Management continues to focus on costs to offset the lack of growth from West Gate Tunnel Project and repricing of its debt book as covid tranches are repriced, commentary highlights.

The analyst expects organic growth to re-start in 2H26 with the M7. FY27 and FY28 should benefit from WSA and WHT/M6 extension completions.

Target $13.70, Neutral rated.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $14.00 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.91, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Sell (5) -

For Treasury Wine Estates, Citi notes Treasury Wine’s Americas sales fell -10% in the four weeks to August 9, compared with the market decline of -2%, according to the broker's analysis of Nielsen data.

This outcome was a slight improvement on the prior four-week period, when sales were down -11%, though the broker does not see evidence of a turnaround and remains comfortable with its recent downgrade to Sell.

The broker highlights Daou, which accounts for 49% of Treasury Americas sales, grew 11%, ahead of the company’s near-term expectations but still below the medium-term low double-digit target.

Frank Family remained flat, while premium brands were mixed, with 19 Crimes down -27% and Matua improving by 3%.

Citi expects the new Treasury Collective division to help moderate declines in FY26, with guidance for a -5% top-line decline.

The broker cautions Nielsen data do not capture on-premise or direct-to-consumer channels, which together represent 40% of Treasury Americas sales. Citi retains a Sell rating and $7.00 target price.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.93 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.88, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VCX as Neutral (3) -