Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates A1N as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley takes a negative view on ARN Media after an in-line first half result, centring on the challenges, both structural and cyclical, for the radio industry.

The assets are under a lot of pressure, and as time spent with broadcast radio continues to reduce so too does its share of advertising budgets.

The broker remains surprised by the timing and size of the commitment to Hong Kong Outdoor, a business the company itself describes as "non-core". Morgan Stanley also highlights a mixed track record in capital allocation.

Underweight maintained. Target is reduced to $0.50 from $0.78. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: minus $0.095 (current price is over target).
If A1N meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.49, suggesting downside of -16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ABB as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley, at first glance, considers FY24 results "solid", with EBITDA and net profit ahead of expectations.

The key drivers of subscriber and earnings growth for the core business are intact and the broker now considers Aussie Broadband more diversified and a strategically stronger telco.

There remains a large revenue and profit opportunity and Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating with a $4.20 target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.71
If ABB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ABB as Buy (1) -

Aussie Broadband posted FY24 results that was slightly ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts. Operating cash flow materially outperformed.

The broker expects the maiden four cents dividend to extend into a 25-30% payout in future periods, with capacity for further capital management alongside growth strategies.

Ord Minnett expects ex-Origin earnings to accelerate and maintains a Buy rating. Target is raised to $4.16 from $3.81.

Target price is $4.16 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.67
If ABB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ABY as Buy (1) -

At first take, Citi considered Adore Beauty's 7% year-on-year August trading results were softer than forecast, but accounting for 'lumpy" retail media sales the update showed a slight slowdown from the FY24 sales run-rate.

With the IKOU inclusion, two additional stores and the ongoing strength in beauty, Citi expects momentum to continue into FY25 alongside a "recovering" consumer.

Management upgraded margin guidance to 4%-5% from 2%-4% for FY25. Adore Beauty is expanding into physical retail.

Buy rating with $1.50 target unchanged.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.34
If ABY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ABY as Equal-weight (3) -

At first glance, Morgan Stanley found Adore Beauty's earnings in line with previous guidance. The main positive is FY25 EBITDA margin guidance, which was ahead of expectations.

Customer retention is up 8.5 percentage points to 65%. The broker's chief concern is that sales growth remains below pre-pandemic trends as well as below industry growth.

Equal-weight. Target $1.32. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.32 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.16
If ABY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ABY as Neutral (3) -

Adore Beauty's June Q sales were pre-reported, but earnings margins came in at the top-end of the guidance range underpinned by continued cost control, UBS notes. The company continued to highlight subdued consumer sentiment.

There are two risk factors in the broker's view: the CEO departure from October adds uncertainty to strategic direction; and the iKOU acquisition adds execution risk with Adore now extending its business to brand ownership and a physical store presence.

But the iKOU ramp-up lifts earnings forecasts and the broker's target to $1.30 from $1.05. Neutral retained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.14
If ABY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALK as Buy (1) -

FY24 production for Alkane Resources was weaker-than-expected by Bell Potter as mining ramped-up at the new Roswell Underground mine. Profit missed the broker's forecast on higher depreciation and tax expenses.

FY25 production guidance is a 30% increase on FY24, while costs (AISC) are -17% worse compared to FY24 as the Roswell development is advanced.

The Buy rating and $1.10 target are unchanged. Bell Potter feels Alkane is undervalued relative to the expanded Tomingley Gold
Project, which is set to produce 100kozpa of gold between FY26-32.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.7
If ALK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 175% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ATA as Add (1) -

Atturra's FY24 top-line result appears to have met Morgans' forecasts, the company posting a strong rise in profitability, and management reiterated FY25 guidance for double-digit growth.

One-offs hit the EPS line and cash flow as did higher depreciation and amortisation and M&A-related dilution but Morgans observes the company's balance sheet remains very strong and the company holds a solid net cash position.

The broker spies potential for more M&A in 2025, and an improvement in operating conditions and organic growth over the year.

Add raing and $1.05 target price retained. 

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.15
If ATA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AVG as Hold (3) -

Australian Vintage's FY24 result was broadly in line with revised guidance in June, but Bell Potter expects industry supply issues will persist in FY25 and lowers the trajectory for anticipated earnings.

As part of a new inventory reduction strategy, explains the broker, management is aiming to improve free cash flow to $20m/year and double return on capital employed (ROCE) to 8% by FY27.

No final dividend was declared. Management guides to free cash flow (FCF) breakeven in FY25.

The target falls to 19 cents from 21 cents. Hold.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.02
If AVG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AX1 as Buy (1) -

Commenting after FY24 results for Accent Group, Bell Potter anticipates plenty of growth catalysts ahead. Also, the 1H FY25 performance should be well supported by a healthy in-stock position across a good range of brands and relatively supportive comparatives.

While FY24 underlying profit and gross margins missed the broker's forecasts, the dividend of 17cps was in line.

The analysts describe a "resilient" first seven weeks of FY25 trading.

The Buy rating and $2.50 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: $0.38
If AX1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.41, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BEN as Sell (5) -

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank reported FY24 earnings which were better than consensus estimates by 2%-3%, according to Citi.

A recovery in net interest margins in 2H24 boosted the performance as well as a return to loan growth. The broker doesn't believe these are sustainable as adjusted deposit rates and wholesale funding in 2H24 look set to reduce some of the cost benefits.

Citi is concerned by the two-year compound average cost growth of 10% and this is viewed as a key issue for the new CEO.

Earnings forecasts are tweaked by the analyst. Sell rated. Target prices moves to $9.75 from $9.50.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $12.34 Difference: minus $2.59 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.43, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BEN as Underperform (5) -

Favourable volume trends in the fourth quarter amid ongoing improvement in the digital channel underpinned the FY24 results from Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, Macquarie notes.

While the broker acknowledges the strong margin rebound it appears to have been supported by one-off drivers.

Expense growth continues to disappoint, even before the impact of below-the-line restructuring costs which, if included in the P&L as Macquarie believes they should, mean the results would be -12% lower than reported.

Target increases slightly to $9.50 from $9.25 and an Underperform rating is retained.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $12.34 Difference: minus $2.84 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.43, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BEN as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley found the results from Bendigo & Adelaide Bank mixed as, while liking the franchise momentum and the strategy to improve returns, commentary highlighted higher investment expenditure and costs growth.

The broker remains optimistic about margins, noting the CFO expects reported margins to be more stable in FY25. No buyback was announced and Morgan Stanley still assumes a buyback in 2025-26.

Further share price outperformance is considered limited and the rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target is reduced to $11.90 from $12.20. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $11.90 Current Price is $12.34 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.43, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BEN as Lighten (4) -

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank delivered net profit of $294m in the second half of FY24 with a final dividend of $0.33, which exceeded estimates. Costs were higher than Ord Minnett expected.

The broker has reduced confidence in its estimates for net interest margins compared with other banks, although expects the disparity to steadily narrow over time as the market moves increasingly to digital lending and interest-rate cuts eventuate.

Ord Minnett points out the bank is a price taker in the market and is operating in a tough environment that is unlikely to become easy any time soon. Lighten rating. Target increases to $11 from $10.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $12.34 Difference: minus $1.34 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.43, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BEN as Sell (5) -

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's FY24 results were in-line with market expectations, highlighting the success of its digital strategy, strength and resilience of its funding model and overall stable asset quality, UBS notes.

A higher net interest margin was offset by costs and bad debts resulting in cash earnings marginally down.

The bank continues to make progress on its transformation agenda and the broker like its focus on return on equity being greater than cost of equity, but cost delivery and return on equity expansion could slow in a lower interest rate environment.

Sell and $10.00 target retained.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $12.34 Difference: minus $2.34 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.43, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, BHP Group reported results that were in line with Macquarie's expectations but cash flow was 6% better from improved working capital and net interest costs.

Copper came in 6% above forecasts and boosted FY24 EBITDA with coal also assisting, rising 3% more than the broker's expectations.

Other reported a -18% decline, although iron ore was in line.

Notably, the final dividend of US74c met forecasts but the payout ratio slipped to 53%, below consensus; net debt of US$9.1bn was US$1.1bn better than estimated with medium term Escondida guidance at 0.9-1Mt per annum.

FY25 guidance sees capex at US$10bn and US$11bn p.a. over the medium term, Macquarie notes.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $40.84 Difference: $1.16
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.25, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, UBS sees a solid result form BHP Group with a slight dividend beat, although the FY25 tax rate and medium term cost guidance are higher.

Stronger operating free cash flow enabled lower net debt and the higher dividend.

The broker awaits the conference call. Neutral and $43 target retained.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $40.84 Difference: $2.16
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.25, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BIO as Buy (1) -

As a result of scaling sales volume and improved efficiency in raw material utilisation, explains Bell Potter, Biome Australia achieved a lift of 210bps in gross margin to 61.3% in the 2H of FY24.

As scale builds, the analysts anticipate further margin improvement.

For the third financial year in a row, highlight the analysts, FY24 sales growth exceeded 75% per annum growth, with a partial contribution from three new products and the expansion into retail pharmacy in UK/Ireland.

The target rises to 85c from 80c. Buy.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.28
If BIO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Brazilian Rare Earths has further assays from 22 drill holes at the Monte Alto prospect which continues to display ultra-high grades. Ord Minnett observes the project may be just one of multiple mines that have potential at Rocha da Rocha given the exceptional targets.

The broker is excited because the byproducts are so rich that REO mineralisation may have "negative costs", with the Monazite sands offering a relatively low expenditure path to production. Speculative Buy rating retained along with a $6.10 target.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $2.64 Difference: $3.46
If BRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CKF as Neutral (3) -

Citi emphasises "surprise" at the extent of margin decline at Collins Foods given the recent trading update showed better cost management.

In FY25 the broker believes margin pressures could remain if pressure on sales continues. Management only provided 1H25 margin guidance.

In the first seven weeks of FY25, Australia has slightly improved but remains under pressure; Europe has worsened. Acquisition possibilities may arise if conditions continue to worsen, Citi highlights.

The analyst revises net profit down -12% for FY25 and -5% for FY26.

Target price is cut -22% to $7.88. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $7.88 Current Price is $7.64 Difference: $0.24
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CKF as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley reduces FY25-27 EBITDA estimates for Collins Foods by -8-10% and EPS by -18-25%. The company now expects first half margin compression amid softer sales in the year to date.

The broker also points out it was "interesting" the company has guided to first half EBITDA margins of 14.2-14.5% and EBIT of 7-7.3% rather than providing FY25 guidance.

In the bigger picture, the broker asserts the business has access to durable global brands that have offered consistent growth over long periods and the global roll-out of KFC and Taco Bell should continue for "many years".

Overweight reiterated. Target is reduced to $11 from $13. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $7.64 Difference: $3.36
If CKF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CLG as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners pushes back against the -25% decline in the Close the Loop share price post the FY24 results announcement which revealed lower-than-expected earnings and higher debt.

Packaging business was the earnings drag in FY24 not the resource recovery business.

The analyst acknowledges the treatment of the earn-out to the former owners of ISP Tek was a major factor for the earnings miss. Post this one-off the broker's cashflow estimate for FY24 was "close".

In FY25 free cashflow should bring down the $28m debt, by $14m. The company has $41m cash on the balance sheet.

Target price of 70c and Buy rating (High risk) unchanged.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.465
If CLG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 198% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNU as Outperform (1) -

FY24 results from Chorus were in line with guidance. FY25 dividend guidance of NZ57.5c is well ahead of Macquarie's expectations as the company moves to a new policy to pay an ordinary dividend of 70-90% (versus 60-80%) of net cash flow from operating activities, less sustaining capital expenditure.

The broker comments as regulatory inputs for the new period become clearer, the company has undertaken a review of capital management that has allowed it to lift the dividend payout range amid increased confidence in the ability to deliver sustainable dividend growth.

Outperform. Target is raised to NZ$8.67 from NZ$8.32.

Current Price is $7.98. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COL as Buy (1) -

In an initial snapshot, UBS notes the FY24 EBIT net profit from Coles Group was ahead of expectations because of supermarkets while liquor was below. Group sales were up 7.6%, EBIT up 10.7% and net profit up 8.3%.

For the first eight weeks of the first quarter of FY25 supermarket sales were up 3.7% with volume growth and momentum appearing to increase. Liquor was down -1.4%. FY25 capital expenditure is guided at -$1.2bn. Buy rating and $19.50 target.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $18.46 Difference: $1.04
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.33, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CTD as Buy (1) -

Post a resumption of coverage of Corporate Travel Management, Citi has a Buy rating and $13.50 target price.

The broker believes after the almost -50% decline in the stock price post the worse than expected FY24 results, the risk/reward is looking "favourable".

A&NZ is understood to be back on track while questions remain around the US despite a 17% increase in 2H24 volumes, the analyst observes.

Citi believes uncertainty remains for the US, but A&NZ and UK have largely resolved issues.

Buy rated. Target price $13.50.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $11.63 Difference: $1.87
If CTD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.96, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DBI as Buy (1) -

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure reported "solid" 1H24 earnings, Citi notes, including 8% growth in revenue from terminal infrastructure charge.

A 10.8c dividend was announced. The broker forecasts the dividend to grow to 22.5c in the next 12-months offering an attractive yield around 7.2%.

A further circa $395m in projects are in progress, with the asset base expected to increase by circa $165m in FY26 and $116m in FY27, a boost to the long-term growth in terminal charges as inflation eases, the broker highlights.

Buy rating unchanged. Target price lifts to $3.40 from $3.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $0.3
If DBI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DBI as Add (1) -

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure's solid June-half result broadly met Morgans's forecasts with funds from operations proving a beat thanks to lower than forecast interest.

Management retained FY24 dividend guidance and has confirmed it is in M&A discussions.

Add rating retained, the broker appreciating the company's defensive and yield characteristics. Target price rises 23c to $3.28 from $3.05.

Target price is $3.28 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $0.18
If DBI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Citi envisages an ongoing tough operating environment for Endeavour Group with customers switching to more value-based meals and buying in bulk at the retail level.

The broker expects like-for-like sales in 1H25 in retail of -0.5% and hotels 1.4%, then increasing to 0.5 and 2% growth, respectively, in 2H24.

Costs remain a challenge for the group. The broker questions the issues of declining per-capita alcohol consumption and growth in online gaming and how management will navigate these longer-term headwinds.

Retail is receiving a boost from Ai for gross margins, but further improvements are questioned by the analyst with cost-of-living headwinds.

Citi cuts net profit forecasts by -9% and -7% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Neutral rating unchanged. Target price slips to $5.18 from $5.78.

Target price is $5.18 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.03
If EDV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.47, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Group sales for Endeavour Group were up strongly in FY24 as the business turns around its share losses of recent years, Macquarie observes. The balance sheet is robust and net debt has reduced, with leverage in the target range of 3.5x.

For the first seven weeks of the new financial year sales were up 0.6% in retail and 2.0% in hotels. Macquarie lowers earnings estimates for FY25-27 by around -2.4% as a result of commentary that is cautious about FY25 although bullish on double-digit returns from FY26.

Neutral. Target is reduced to $5.40 from $5.75.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.25
If EDV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.47, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EDV as Overweight (1) -

Endeavour Group's FY24 results were in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations. with modest revenue growth reflecting the challenging environment.

Underlying sales momentum has improved slightly in the first seven weeks of the new financial year but remains below normalised growth expectations.

A higher cost burden, combined with above-trend inflation, will make it challenging for the company to deliver EBIT margin growth, the broker adds.

Target is reduced to $6.20 from $6.40. Overweight. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $1.05
If EDV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.47, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EDV as Hold (3) -

Endeavour Group's FY24 result met consensus' forecasts and outpaced Morgans' thanks to strength in both Retail and Hotels in the face of rising cost-of-living pressures.

Management observed continued strength in both divisions in the first seven weeks of FY25 trading.

While the broker observes the company is a fundamentally attractive proposition with good cost control and management, it expects cost-of-living pressures will continue to dampen growth, and notes labour costs remain high and Woolworths' separation costs are about to kick up.

Hold rating and $5.20 target price retained.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.05
If EDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.47, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EDV as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

FY24 net profit from Endeavour Group matched Ord Minnett's expectations. The trading update for the first weeks of FY25 signal to the broker there is some weakness, although tough comparables are being cycled.

The liquor market is being challenged longer term, Ord Minnett points out, amid falling volumes as consumers tighten their belts and attitudes to alcohol consumption change.

Without growth in the market, the broker struggles to envisage how elevated multiples can be justified and downgrades to Hold from Accumulate. Target is reduced to $5.10 from $5.40.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.47, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EDV as Buy (1) -

Endeavour Group's FY24 earnings and profit met consensus but beat UBS. It has been a slow start to FY25 sales growth to date, but sales are expected to improve in the second half on the first when cycling easier comparables.

The broker revises down FY25-26 earnings forecasts due to lower Hotels & Retail earnings, higher net interest and a higher effective tax rate.

UBS retains Buy due to a strong liquor industry position, cost management, Hotels growth optionality, capital discipline and valuation. Target falls to $5.75 from $6.00.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.6
If EDV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.47, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVT as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes the FY24 results from EVT Ltd highlight a "need for patience", with normalised net profit down -48% and well below expectations.

The business was affected by an aborted sale of German cinemas and a writers strike in the sector, as well as a delay in filmmaking during the pandemic.

While this background has stalled a recovery in earnings, the broker points out the main attraction in the stock is the unrealised value of the property assets associated with the hotels division, although now is not the right time to crystallise inherent value.

 A Buy rating has been maintained for medium term investors. Target is reduced to $14.05 from $15.65.

Target price is $14.05 Current Price is $10.74 Difference: $3.31
If EVT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GDI as Buy (1) -

FY24 funds from operations (FFO) for GDI Property came in 6% ahead of Bell Potter's forecast driven by a higher Property FFO, which was slightly offset by higher operating expenses and a lower Management FFO.

Management anticipates a “significantly enhanced Property FFO” in FY25 and guides to a dividend of 5cpu, which the analysts note is in line with the prior target.

Buy rating and the target is raised to 80 cents from 75 cents. Asset sales to bridge the discount to net tangible assets (NTA) would be a key positive catalyst, suggests Bell Potter.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.14
If GDI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNP as Buy (1) -

GenusPlus Group's Industrial Services segment delivered significant earnings (EBITDA) margin expansion to 7.2%, up from 2.8% in FY23, helping lift FY24 underlying profit to $20.5m and marginally beating Bell Potter's forecast.

Management expects FY25 earnings will grow by at least 20% compared to the broker's prior 16% estimate.

A 2.5 cent fully franked final dividend was declared, 14% ahead of the analysts' estimate.

The target rises to $2.70 from $2.40. Buy.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.35
If GNP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GOR as Buy (1) -

Due to movements in inventory, 1H underlying earnings (EBITDA) for Gold Road Resources fell short of Bell Potter's forecast, while profit was in line.

Recovery from production issues at Gruyere is ongoing, notes the broker, with progressive improvements expected over the next six months.

Management expects greatly improved 2H production and plans to finish 2024 in a good position to target expanded gold production in
2025.

The Buy rating and $2.10 target are retained.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.36
If GOR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.99, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOR as Outperform (1) -

First half results were mixed, in Macquarie's view, with underlying EBITDA of $94m in line and net profit better than expected. Gold Road Resources reported a five cents first half dividend, which was ahead of forecasts.

Recent guidance has been maintained, although the broker notes ramping up ore movements will be key to achieving the target of 290-305,000 ounces from Gruyere. Outperform. Target is $1.90.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.16
If GOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.99, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GOR as Buy (1) -

Gold Road Resources posted a first half result that was softer than Ord Minnett expected. Regardless, the broker believes investors will continue to favour its simplicity and exposure to two tier-1 assets in a rising gold price environment.

Delivery over the next six months is expected to mean the stock will trade closer to peers as investors look for simple gold exposure with genuine M&A appeal. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $1.85 from $1.90.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.11
If GOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.99, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HAS as Hold (3) -

Hastings Technology Metals has results of 104 rock chip samples taken from carbonatite-related ironstone intrusions at Bald Hill.

Ord Minnett points out the grade distribution was highly varied and rock chip samples are only indicative, being notably unreliable as a measure of the underlying geology.

Drilling and resource modelling will be needed to corroborate the presence of any meaningful niobium and hafnium volumes. Hold rating and $0.36 target.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.085
If HAS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IFM as Buy (1) -

FY24 underlying earnings (EBITDA) for Infomedia beat Bell Potter's forecast by 2% due to better-than-expected margins

A final fully franked dividend of 2.0 cents was declared, beating the 1.8 cent forecast by the analysts.

FY25 guidance is for revenue between $144-154m (the broker forecast $152m) and “stable margins”.

The target rises to $2.00 from $1.90. Buy.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.2
If IFM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates IFM as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes the FY24 results and FY25 guidance support the ongoing turnaround in the company.

The FY24 results were mixed with EBITDA better than forecast, and free cashflow slightly lower than expected. A 2c final dividend was up 11% on the previous corresponding period.

The broker highlights FY25 revenue guidance has many "moving parts", which is viewed as "underwhelming" at first glance.

The conference call offered some reassurance with FY24 new customers to contribute in FY25, alongside a conservative approach to potential customer churn rates.

Responding to the FY25 updates, the broker revises revenue forecasts by 2% and increases free cashflow by 1%.

Target price lifts to $2.20 from $2. Buy rating (High risk) retained.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.4
If IFM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IFM as Buy (1) -

While Infomedia's FY24 result was a slight beat on cash earnings, compositionally UBS notes net revenue was a bit softer, despite FX tailwinds, 2H24 US revenue was flat half on half when the broker expected improvement, and Infodrive revenue momentum slowed in 2H24.

On the positive side, the broker notes Infomedia has a healthy backlog of clients to deploy, the sales pipeline is strong and recent contract renewals have recorded 5-17% pricing increases, all to benefit from 2H25.

UBS remains positive on the turnaround story, albeit the broker would prefer to see a bit more acceleration in 1H25 rather than 2H25, and wants to monitor SimpleParts competitor discounting. Buy and $2.05 target retained.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.25
If IFM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IGL as Buy (1) -

IVE Group's FY24 underlying profit of $43m was a 3% beat compared to Bell Potter's forecast and towards the upper end of the $41-44m guidance range.

The broker highlights a "strong" operating cash flow result with operating cash conversion to earnings of 114% versus 66% in the previous corresponding period.

FY25 guidance is as Bell Potter expected with underlying NPAT between $45-50m.

The target climbs to $2.70 from $2.65. Buy retained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.55
If IGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGL as Buy (1) -

IVE Group posted a solid set of FY24 results, UBS suggests, with marginally softer revenue offset by higher margins. Revenue uncertainty is the key risk heading into FY25.

The broker conservatively forecasts 0.4% organic revenue growth to reflect softer 1H25 momentum year on year and 2% growth in 2H25 despite cycling softer comparables.

Apparel tenders and a wider Content Creation offering are all in line with a strategy to diversify longer term and cross-sell to existing customers, while Lasoo also provides optionality, UBS suggests.

Buy retained on undemanding valuation, target falls to $2.50 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.35
If IGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ING as Neutral (3) -

At Inghams Group's 1H24 result in February, UBS explored the potential for Australian volumes to turn negative in 2H24 on the back of out-of home demand weakness no longer being able to be offset by the grocery-linked at-home channel. This appeared to have played out.

The broker believes this underpinned a miss to consensus. The bigger story, however, was Inghams announcing its updated contract with largest customer Woolworths Group ((WOW)) will see a phased volume reduction as the supermarket diversifies its poultry suppliers.

Inghams noted it has already won new contracts that will go a "long way" to replacing the lost volumes. While this should provide some comfort, UBS comments it still represents a major change in industry dynamics from one that has historically been seen as a favourable duopoly.

Earnings downgrades see the broker's target fall to $3.35 from $4.10, Neutral retained.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $0.25
If ING meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPH as Add (1) -

IPH's FY24 result met Morgans's forecasts, the company posting strong revenue and EPS rising 5.5%.

Operating cash flow rose 44% and gross cash flow conversion was 89%.

The broker observes aged debt appears to be on the high side but suspects this may be the new normal given the extended collections cycle in Canadian businesses and that impairment risks appear low.

The company will buy Beresking & Parr for -$90.2m through 30% scrip and 70% cash, the cash component being funded through a $100m equity raising.

The latter surprised the broker given it believed the company's comfortable gearing could have accommodated a debt purchase. Morgans estimates the deal will be 2% accretive.

EPS forecasts fall -0.3% in FY25; and rise 3.5% in FY26. Add rating retained. Target price falls to $7.55 from $8.05.

Target price is $7.55 Current Price is $6.70 Difference: $0.85
If IPH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.18, suggesting upside of 29.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JLG as Buy (1) -

Johns Lyng's FY24 result broadly met guidance, consensus and the broker's forecasts. Revenue outpaced by 2% to 3%, thanks to a strong performance from Commercial Construction and CAT, which sharply outpaced guidance.

On the flipside, margins expandeds strongly, but were a tough shy of forecasts. Citi appreciates BAU guidance, which implied 48% year on year earnings (EBITDA) growth.

Management reports record job registrations and work-in-hand pipeline. Buy rating retained. Target price is $6.50, which compares with $7.85 on August 5.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.57 Difference: $0.93
If JLG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.94, suggesting upside of 70.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KGN as Sell (5) -

Citi retains a degree of concern over the lastest update from Kogan.com, suggesting the strength in July trading emanated from growth in Kogan FIRST revenues.

The broker suggests platform growth is being supported by discounts and access programs by subscription which is not a sustainable growth model. 

Citi estimates members need to spend $1000p.a. on branded products to breakeven in their FIRST subscription.

In FY25, the analyst forecasts no revenue growth in Mighty Ape or marketplace and 20% growth in Kogan FIRST. Consensus estimates are believed to be too high.

Target price rises to $4.20 from $4.15. Sell rating remains.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.85 Difference: minus $0.65 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting upside of 44.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates KGN as Neutral (3) -

Kogan.com's FY24 result was largely pre-released. The key difference in the result versus UBS' expectations was a stronger Products gross margin and a lower Kogan First gross profit contribution in 2H24.

The July update revealed a solid start to 1H25, notably with an increased gross margin. This indicates a strong Services and/or Kogan First contribution to July results, but the broker cautions around annualising these numbers given volatility of monthly earnings.

UBS makes minimal changes to forecasts and looks for greater certainty around the longevity of Kogan First growth before turning more positive. Lower longer term earnings forecasts lead to a target cut to $5.80 from $6.00.

Neutral retained.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.85 Difference: $0.95
If KGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting upside of 44.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates KLS as Buy (1) -

Kelsian Group's underlying FY24 earnings, up 64% year on year, were in line with UBS , while FY25 capex and D&A guidance surprised to the upside.

The capex increase is driven by the Kangaroo Island Ferry contract, Hoxton Park Bus Depot acquisition in Sydney, the purchase of new buses for Bankstown Rail Replacement, final investment for SE Qld fleet renewal, fleet renewal of Stradbroke Island buses, and expansion of the US motorcoach fleet.

Another year of elevated capex will see three straight years of poor free cash generation and continues a long run of surprising to the upside on spending intentions, the broker notes.

UBS understands investment is required within this business, but the market may be losing patience in terms of waiting for the return on this spend. Buy and $7.70 target retained.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $3.88
If KLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 102% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.33, suggesting upside of 84.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LFG as Buy (1) -

A disappointing net interest margin in 2H24 accounted for the -2% FY24 earnings miss from Liberty Financial according to Citi.

The conference call allayed some of the analyst's concerns with lower funding spreads expected to be a tailwind in the next 12-18 months, although competition remains a challenge.

Competition is most prevalent in motor the broker highlights which management referred to as "irrational".

Citi tweaks earnings forecasts. Buy rating. Target price slips to $4.15 from $4.25.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: $0.65
If LFG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LFG as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie believes the majority of the margin headwinds for Liberty Financial are in the rearview mirror and lower funding spread should support margins in the second half of FY25 onwards.

With margin stability and the book returning to growth there are signs for cautious optimism, the broker adds, upgrading to Outperform from Neutral.

In FY24 overall book growth was 8%. Competitive trends appeared stable, and with potential rate cuts, Macquarie envisages upside risks. Target is unchanged at $4.10 and EPS for FY25 is upgraded by 6% and FY26 by 3%.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: $0.6
If LFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LGI as Add (1) -

LGI's FY24 solid result met the low end of the guidance, net profit after fax falling just shy of consensus forecasts.

The company posted cash flow of $9.9m and a 65% conversion rate and closed June 30 with net debt and leases of $19.3m.

Morgans observes capital expenditure relative to sales was high and expects it to continue to be so until the fully funded contracted development pipeline is finished.

EPS forecasts fall -23% in FY25; and -8% in FY26.

The broker retains its view that the company represents one of the best exposures to decarbonisation on the ASX, particularly through its expertise in battery storage systems.

Add rating retained. Target price edges up to $3.15 from $3.12.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $0.31
If LGI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LOV as Outperform (1) -

In an initial glance at FY24 results for Lovisa Holdings, Macquarie notes revenue came in slightly lower-than-forecast largely driven by store rollout (900 versus the broker's 913 forecast).

Eight net new stores have been added so far in FY25 taking total stores to 908.

Total sales increased by 17.1% to $699m while the gross margin percentage increased by 110bps to 81%.

The analyst highlights like-for-like sales improved into early-FY25, rising by 2% on the previous corresponding period.

A final dividend of 37 cents was declared.

Outperform. Target $33.70.

Target price is $33.70 Current Price is $37.29 Difference: minus $3.59 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.09, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LOV as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, it appears Lovisa Holdings' FY24 earnings and profit were below consensus but above UBS. Sales in the first eight weeks of FY25 are up 2.0%, which is -5.8% down year on year.

Since the end of FY24, ten new stores opened (21 last year) and two stores closed (8 last year) and Lovisa entered the Ivory Coast and Republic of Congo under a franchised network, with the store network now 908.

Trading is set to start the first half subdued with modest store growth and sales growth, UBS notes.

Neutral and $32.50 target retained.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $37.29 Difference: minus $4.79 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.09, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MMS as Buy (1) -

McMillan Shakespeare reported FY24 EBITDA which was -1% below Citi's expectations but above consensus forecasts.

At first glance, the broker believes the results were slightly better than expected by consensus and a robust dividend should support the stock.

The broker notes growth in volumes for leasing but is awaiting confirmation of whether it relates to reduced EV prices or an unwind of the order bank.

Management pointed to increasing EV supply models which are expected to drive growth in volumes, but could result in increased price competition.

Citi remains concerned about slowing order growth on novated leases and the possible impact on yields.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $18.32 Difference: $4.18
If MMS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.99, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHF as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

nib Holdings reported a "disappointing" FY24 result according to Citi.

Claims inflation at 6.6% per person seems high and above industry levels, the broker highlights; international inbound insurance is expected to slow with potential for student caps and uncertainty around a new CEO lingers.

Citi revises EPS forecasts by -12% for FY25 and -3% in FY26. The stock is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target price cut to $6.55 from $8.60.

The broker believes investors will require more evidence of claims inflation abating.

Target price is $6.55 Current Price is $5.98 Difference: $0.57
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.59, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

FY24 results missed Macquarie's estimates on most items and nib Holdings' residents business is expected to get worse before it gets better. FY25 policyholder growth of 3.0% appears manageable to the broker, assuming market competition slows.

Earnings changes reflect a reset to long-term margins in FY25 for the residents business that are offset by a more positive outlook for the NDIS and IIHI.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $6.30 from $7.50.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.98 Difference: $0.32
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.59, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OCL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Objective Corp delivered a solid set of FY24 numbers, UBS suggests, with cash earnings growing by 13%. The highlight was once again the incremental margins generated on SaaS revenue.

The share price has traded broadly sideways over the past three years, which has seen the stock's trading multiple de-rate significantly. UBS thinks this now presents an attractive opportunity to purchase a high quality ASX Software company.

Objective Corp offers a compound earnings growth rate of 20% and meets the broker's requirements for a 10% Internal Rate of Return.

Upgrade to Buy from Neutral. Target rises to $15.00 from $14.00.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.60 Difference: $2.4
If OCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.23, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PAC as Buy (1) -

Pacific Current Group delivered FY24 earnings results that were in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts. The broker highlights a "big step up" in fair value, given recent divestments.

The next catalysts include the finalisation of the Carlisle and Victory Park deals as well as the proposed share buyback of up to $275m. Target is raised to $13.00 from $12.50 and a Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.09 Difference: $1.91
If PAC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PLS as Hold (3) -

FY24 earnings (EBITDA) and profit for Pilbara Minerals of $538m and $318m, respectively, missed the $578m and $361m forecasts by Bell Potter.

These lower outcomes were largely due to procurement and construction spend on the mid-stream demonstration plant, explains the broker.

FY25 production and cost guidance were reaffirmed. As expected by the analysts, no dividend was declared.

The Hold rating and $3.15 target are maintained.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.13
If PLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Citi adjusts earnings forecasts for FY24 results, including a $368m payout in project/syndicated debt using cash with the new $1bn facility undrawn.

The new facility will be available in Dec quarter 2024 and is not related to lithium pricing, the analyst notes, with optionality on how the funds are used.

Citi highlights Lumsden Point is expected to be ready in late 2025. Pilbara Minerals will invest capex into the shed and land-side infrastructure but details are not decided.

Neutral rated. Target price $2.90.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as No Rating (-1) -

Further to the FY24 results Macquarie welcomes the raising of $1bn in debt via an oversubscribed RCF. Along with closing cash this provides $2.27bn in liquidity to finance growth, both organically and through M&A, as well as existing capital commitments.

Earnings estimates are adjusted for lower mid-stream joint venture profitability and a deferral of capital returns. Macquarie is currently on research restriction and cannot provide a rating or target.

Current Price is $3.02. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley observes Pilbara Minerals' revenue was in line with expectations in FY24 although EBITDA of $538m was below. No FY25 dividend was announced, in line with forecasts while depreciation was greater than expected.

Underweight. Target $2.70. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PLS as Add (1) -

Pilbara Minerals' FY24 result missed consensus forecasts by -9% on earnings (EBITDA) and -8% on net profit after tax no thanks to weak lithium prices.

The company closed the year with net cash of $1bn and announced a new $1bn revolving credit facility to improve liquidity and growth options.

Morgans says the facility will be partly used to replace existing facilities with better, more flexible covenants to cut financing costs and is not related to markets or impending needs, and therefore determines it is a positive.

Morgans' opinion is supported by management's adoption of a new target leverage ratio of less than 1.5x, which the broker says will ensure debt levels stay in line with the market.

Margins slid to 43% from an extraordinary 82% in FY23 as lithium prices fell, but the broker considers 43% to be a more realistically margin in any event.

EPS forecasts fall in FY25 and FY26.

A patient Add rating is retained, the broker considering it too early to call a bottom to lithium prices. Target price eases to $3.30 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.28
If PLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PLS as Sell (5) -

Pilbara Minerals' FY24 earnings fell short of UBS on inventory movements, higher freight rates, study and general & administration costs. FY25 guidance remains unchanged with an updated capital management strategy targeting 1.5x leverage through the cycle.

The broker sees a near-term period of low prices in which cash declines until prices improve and capex rolls off.

Target falls to $2.20 from $2.30. Sell retained on a cautious view on lithium markets.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PNV as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

As was expected by Bell Potter, PolyNovo made a maiden profit in FY24 of $5.2m, which included a $3.5m tax benefit. Earnings of $3m missed the consensus forecast for $6.4m.

Revenue for the period jumped by 54% driven by expanded market share in the US, explains the broker, aided by the ongoing absence of the key competitor, Integra, in the market for dermal matrix products.

Bell Potter raises its target for PolyNovo to $3.00 from $2.52 and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.49 Difference: $0.51
If PNV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPS as Hold (3) -

Praemium posted FY24 results that were ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts. The broker notes recent price rises are having a positive impact on revenue margins which should be maintained throughout FY25. 

The next-generation IDPS launch in October is likely to be an important event for the company although take some time to gather flow momentum, the broker adds. Hold rating retained. Target rises to $0.55 from $0.50.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.03
If PPS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REG as Outperform (1) -

Further to the FY24 results, which were ahead of estimates, Macquarie assesses the outlook for residential aged care is positive, amid favourable industry fundamentals and better government funding.

There is also capacity on the Regis Healthcare balance sheet for acquisitions. Forecasts imply average occupancy of 95.2% for FY25. Estimates for EPS are revised up 1% for FY25. Target is unchanged at $5.50. Outperform.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: $0.94
If REG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates REG as Buy (1) -

FY24 results beat Ord Minnett's forecasts. Key assumptions are updated and the broker envisages Regis Healthcare's risk/reward is skewed to the positive, ahead of more clarity on the Taskforce recommendations from the federal government and the potential for material upgrades to EPS.

The reforms are expected to be introduced in July 2025 and key details are awaited in coming weeks, before any upside is incorporated into estimates. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $4.90 from $4.65.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: $0.34
If REG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

FY24 results from Ramelius Resources were better than Macquarie expected. There was no change to FY25 guidance with production still forecast at 270-300,000 ounces at an AISC of $1500-1700/oz. The final dividend of five cents was more than double what the broker expected.

Given recent share price strength the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and Macquarie remains cautious about Rebecca prefeasibility, due the second quarter of FY25. Target edges up to $2.20 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.14
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.41, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Ramelius Resources reported a record net profit in FY24 with a final 5c dividend, up 166% year-on-year.

Shaw and Partners observes record gold prices and higher grades at Penny assisted in lower all-in-sustaining costs.

The cash balance came in at $446.6m and is post the 8.9% stake in Spartan Resources ((SPR)) which has since climbed to 18.35%.

Ramelius Resources remains one of the broker's preferred gold exposures with a robust outlook for FY25 from increased production at Penny, a decreasing hedging position and Cue coming on stream.

Buy rating. High risk. Target price of $2.73, unchanged.

Target price is $2.73 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.67
If RMS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.41, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RPL as Buy (1) -

First half results for Regal Partners revealed rises for normalised revenue and profit of 212% and 349%, respectively, over the previous corresponding period. Costs increased in line with scale and acquisitions, note the analysts.

The broker highlights 70% of funds are above high-water mark, which augers well for performance fees in the 2H.

A final dividend of 8 cents was declared.

Unchanged Buy rating. The target is increased to $4.97 from $4.75.

Target price is $4.97 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: $1.56
If RPL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.52, suggesting upside of 36.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RPL as Add (1) -

Regal Partners's June first-half result beat consensus' forecasts by 15% and Morgans' forecasts by 23%, with other income the star performer as principal investment income and management fees grew. 

Morgans expects recurring management fees should continue their upward march and that this will be paired with more cost-outs.

The task for management now is to build Regal Partners's capabilities and asset class diversifcation, says the broker.

The company posted first-half net flows were $0.7bn and Morgans expects a similar performance in the December half.

EPS forecasts rise 7% in 2024 then fall -6% and -4% in 2025 and 2026 due to forecast higher costs and dilution.

Add rating retained. Target price falls to $4.30 from $4.70.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: $0.89
If RPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.52, suggesting upside of 36.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Buy (1) -

SiteMinder reported lower than forecast FY24 results according to Citi, due to revenue recognition changes for Demand-plus compared to consensus estimates and lower gross margins against the broker's forecasts.

Subs advanced in Europe in 2H24 with growth in EMEA as well as Americas. Management announced it is working with four global distribution partners for Smart Distribution. 

The broker points to declining gross margins, which reflects a change in product mix as SiteMinder expands into new segments.

FY25 guidance for EBITDA and free cashflow were in line with expectations, including a 30% revenue growth target over the medium term.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $1.36
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.77, suggesting upside of 31.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SDR as Buy (1) -

At first glance, UBS notes that SiteMinder's pre-released revenue miss in the June quarter was not overly surprising.

An ongoing strong trajectory in the customer lifetime value to customer acquisition cost ratio in the second half and KPIs from
the quarterly overall were largely positive, UBS suggests, particularly around the revenue contribution from new products.

Management expects new products will accelerate annual recurring revenue growth to the high 20%, possibly 30% by the end of FY25.

Buy and $6.65 target retained.

Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $1.41
If SDR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.77, suggesting upside of 31.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SMR as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Citi observes Stanmore Resources reported better than expected 1H24 earnings with lower cash costs and reduced interest expenses.

Softer Chinese and Indian demand resulted in a moderation in met coal prices over 1H24, the broker notes.

Citi revises the 2024 net profit forecast by around 20%, with 2025/2026 earnings estimates declining -7%/-6%, respectively from higher cost forecasts, slightly offset from lower interest charges.

A new term facility will help pay $210m balance on the acquisition financing facility, Target price declines to $3.55 from $3.85 on a valuation adjustment. Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.44
If SMR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SMR as Add (1) -

Stanmore Resources' June first-half earnings (EBITDA) outpaced Morgans' forecasts by 14%, albeit inclusion of leasing costs in operating expenditure pulls this back to 5%, says the broker. Revenue was in line.

The dividend surprised Morgans at US4c, compared with the broker's US3c. 

The company posted net operating cash flow of US$208m ; logged a -$56m impairment from the closure of its high-cost Mavis underground mine, which the broker says will improve 2024 cost guidance; along with improved Poitrel cost guidance.

The company plans to refinance its original US$62m Acquisition Finance Facility which must be fully draw, also improving cost forecasting, says the broker.

Meanwhile, global steel markets remain a risk, observes the broker. Add rating retained. Target price eases to $4.10 from $4.20.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.99
If SMR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett found first half EBITDA in line with expectations, as lower costs offset lower revenue. Stanmore Resources has reaffirmed guidance for production of 12.8-13.6mt on lower costs.

The existing debt facility will be refinanced, which the broker notes supported the declaration of an unexpected US4.4c dividend.

Capital delivery has been better than Ord Minnett anticipated and along with resilient PCI prices should provide some downside protection for investors until the outlook for metallurgical coal becomes more positive. A Buy rating is maintained. Target is raised to $4.80 from $4.60.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $1.69
If SMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SPZ as Buy (1) -

Smart Parking reported a "solid" FY24 earnings report. Shaw and Partners do a mea-culpa as the analyst acknowledges earnings forecasts at initiation of stock coverage were on the robust side of bullish.

Accordingly, EBITDA estimates have declined by -3% to -10% for FY25/FY26, respectively which still allows for circa 30% growth in EBITDA over the period.

Operationally, the company generated increased momentum in its UK operations over 2H24, with stable revenue per site. NZ gained market share. Germany and Denmark reported small losses and the USA is being investigated for opportunities.

Buy (High risk). and 70c target retained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.16
If SPZ meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SSG as Hold (3) -

Shaver Shop delivered a -10% decline in net profit in FY24, which was in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts and considered a "solid result" in the face of difficult trading conditions.

Sales for the month of August have returned to growth and the company plans to open to new stores in the first half and refit 6-8 stores across FY25.

The broker observes the business has a strong market position and generates high returns on capital. Given exceptional growth in recent periods, earnings are expected to consolidate and a Hold rating is retained with a target of $1.30, raised from $1.20.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.06
If SSG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TEA as Add (1) -

Tasmea's FY24 earnings (EBIT) outpaced prospectus' and Morgans' forecasts by 1.5%, with net profit after tax outpacing by 10.3% thanks to strong performances from higher margin divisions. Revenue fell shy of forecasts.

A fully franked final dividend of 4c was declared, taking the total dividend to 6.5cpc, a roughly 3.8% yield.

The company will acquire Future Engingeering Group for about -$84.5m, a deal Morgans estimates will be 21% EPS accretive.

EPS forecasts are upgraded by 15% in FY25; 24% in FY26; and 29% in FY27. Add rating retained. Target price rises to $2.25 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.54
If TEA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates TEA as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners observes Tasmea reported FY24 net profit 10% above the prospectus forecast.

Net profit came in better than the broker's forecast along with the 4c dividend per share.

Delayed 4Q24 works impacted on electrical; stronger margins boosted mechanical for earnings before tax and interest; civil improved due to higher margins.

Tasmea is expected to acquire WA based Future Engineering & Communications for -$84.5m, the analyst notes with a forecast contribution of $15.5m in earnings.

The broker adjusts EPS forecasts by 26.4% for FY25 and 23.5% for FY26 on the back of organic growth combined with strategic acquisitions.

Target price rises to $2.50 from $2.15. Buy rated (High risk) unchanged.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.79
If TEA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TYR as Outperform (1) -

Further to the FY24 results,Tyro Payments provided FY25 guidance that was below Macquarie's expectations, with gross profit guidance of $218-226m at a 28% margin that implies operating EBITDA of $61-63m.

Two new verticals were confirmed: entry to an adjacent health vertical that is subject to final commercial terms and a partnership with one of Australia's largest providers of unattended payments infrastructure for parking and EV charging machines.

The broker acknowledges some conservatism has been factored in to guidance, allowing for macro weakness and potential churn in Lightspeed. FY25 EPS is downgraded by -4.9% and FY26 by -9.1%. Outperform retained. Target edges down to $1.40 from $1.45.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.3
If TYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 47.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TYR as Equal-weight (3) -

Tyro Payments provided a FY24 result that was in line with expectations. Morgan Stanley notes FY25 outlook commentary signals modest growth in both revenue and EBITDA, which is important for de-risking the outlook within a challenging retail/consumer environment.

The broker believes management has done a "good job" to improve profitability but considers the shares fairly priced. Equal-weight. Target is $1.30. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.2
If TYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 47.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TYR as Add (1) -

Tyro Payments' FY24 net profit after tax sharply outpaced consensus thanks to one-offs and depreciation and amortisation. Revenue and earnings (EBITDA) were in line.

The broker observes benefits from the company's pricing transformation program and efficiency drive were paying off, and the company posted $31m in free cash flow and sports a strong balance sheet. Total Transaction value lagged, up just 1% and hitting the low end of guidance.

EPS forecasts rise 15% in FY25; and 25% in FY26 to reflect improved EBITDA margin and lower D&A assumptions.

Management provided maiden medium term guidance parameters, which Morgans says points to improved profitability.

Add rating retained. Target price rises to $1.63 from $1.46.

Target price is $1.63 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.53
If TYR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 47.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TYR as Buy (1) -

Tyro Payments' exposure to discretionary spend across SMEs in Hospitality was a transaction value drag as UBS expected in 2H24 with churn still elevated, driven by difficult macro conditions.

That said, gross merchant adds accelerated as did underlying core Tyro merchant numbers which was a solid outcome, the broker suggests, and payments gross margin in the second half was a standout.

Medium term growth and margin targets for FY26/27 imply mid-teen earnings growth, the broker noting the two new growth verticals to be announced will contribute more materially from FY26 onwards.

The stock does not look expensive to UBS if medium term targets and double digit earnings growth are achieved. Target falls to $1.50 from $1.55, Buy retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.4
If TYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 47.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates UNI as Buy (1) -

Citi likes the FY24 results from Universal Store, highlighting robust management of sourcing and merchandising product which is winning with consumers.

The broker forecasts like-for-like sales up 10% in 1H25, a slight decline from 12.5% in the first seven weeks of FY25. Closing -17 Glue stores by Accent Group ((AX1)) could also provide some support.

Gross margins are expected to rise 84basis points to 60.9% in FY25. Citi upgrades net profit forecasts by 4% and 3% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Buy rated. Target price advances to $7.90 from $6.47.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.00 Difference: $0.9
If UNI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.70, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

First half results from Viva Energy were largely in line with expectations. The delay to the network upgrade leads Macquarie to push back convenience & mobility earnings growth estimates of more than $500m to 2029, versus 2028 previously.

As confidence has increased, the focus has shifted to execution and the broker asserts new guidance on network profit is better than previously forecast.

The broker was also pleased with the dividend payout of 70%, which came despite the gearing needed to complete the OTR acquisition. Outperform maintained. Target is lowered -3.5% to $4.10.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $1.03
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects the reaction to the Viva Energy first half result, which was pre-guided, to be muted. This stems from a soft refining environment and the cost of living pressures that are affecting consumer demand.

Permits are delaying the conversion of Express stores to OTR as well. The company expects conditions in commercial and industrial to be "broadly supportive" over the rest of the year.

The Equal-weight rating and $3.64 target are maintained. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $3.64 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $0.57
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

Viva Energy reported first haf underlying profit in line with consensus and an interim dividend at the top end of the policy range.

With the OTR acquisition completing in May, investors remain focused on the earnings uplift and growth profile within the Convenience & Mobility (C&M) division, UBS notes.

The broker lifts 2024 forecasts, reflecting stronger Commerical & Industrial margins achieved in 1H24, but cuts 2025-26, reflecting slower near term OTR store roll-out and higher refinery costs anticipated for the planned shutdown at Geelong refinery as well as higher interest cost.

UBS maintains Buy, expecting Viva to grow earnings at a 14% compound rate across the portfolio over 2023-27, with risk skewed to the upside, particularly in C&M, which is considered a key differentiator to peers.

Target rises to $3.60 from $3.55.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $0.53
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

In a first look at today's 1H results for Woodside Energy, Citi observes profit beat forecasts by consensus and the broker by 18% and 3%, respectively. however, the analysts are concerned by a "weak" 1H cash result indicating a deteriorating business performance.

Operating cash flows of US$2.4bn fell below the analysts' US$2.8m forecast on higher cash taxes.

The final dividend of US69 cents beat forecasts by Citi and consensus for US66 cents and US55 cents, respectively. Management noted a "continued capacity to pay strong dividends" - probably at an 80% payout ratio, suggest the analysts.

Target $25. Neutral.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $26.38 Difference: minus $1.38 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.75, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, UBS sees a solid result from Woodside Energy in line with forecasts, with profit 15% above consensus estimates and the dividend at the top end of the payout ratio.

FY25 production and capex guidance are reaffirmed.

Investor focus will be on Woodside's growth profile, the broker suggests, and whether further scale growth investment is planned and the willingness to continue to pay out dividends at the top end of policy if sell-downs take longer than expected and as gearing lifts.

Neutral and $31 target retained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $26.38 Difference: $4.62
If WDS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.75, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WOR as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Worley's FY24 revenue fell roughly -2% shy of consensus and Citi's forecasts, but earnings (EBITDA) was in line (up 24% year on year) thanks to a small beat on EBITDA margins.

NPATA met consensus forecasts but missed Citi's expectations by -4%. 

The 25cps final dividend met the broker but missed consensus by -2c. 

Citi suggests a relief rally is likely given management guided to moderated growth for FY25 and double digit margins (suggesting strong pricing power). The main concern would be a continued rise in operating expenditure, the latter proving a drag in FY24.

Buy rating and $19 target price ahead of further examination of the results.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $14.09 Difference: $4.91
If WOR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.07, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

In an initial assessment of today's FY24 result for Zip Co, Citi expects a muted share price reaction given the strong recent performance.

The broker sees potential for consensus upgrades to cash earnings (EBTDA) on the back of FY25 guidance for 1% growth.

Positively, suggests the analyst, management is targeting FY25 US TTV growth above the average pay-in-4 market growth of 30%-32% year-on-year. The margin target has been tightened to a range of 3.5%-4.0% from 3.0%-4.0% over the next two years.

Less positively, the revenue yield target is unchanged, which the broker suspects is the result of an increasing US mix which negatively impacts revenue yield.

Buy. Target $1.90.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If ZIP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

Zip Co largely pre-reported FY24 earnings, UBS notes as 2H24 reveals EBITDA and gross profit came in slightly above forecast but meeting consensus. No dividend was declared.

Management offered little guidance although the company has revised medium term outlook to a two-year outlook.

The broker points to a "slight tightening" in cash, net transaction margins to the higher end of the previous guidance range.

UBS emphasises its forecasts are below management's two-year targets for FY26.

Buy rated. Target $1.90.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If ZIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources