Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates ABB as Outperform (1) -

Aussie Broadband's management reiterated FY23 guidance at its investment day.

Credit Suisse observes the company focused on the relaunch of mobile as part of its growth strategy, and plans to roll out bundled products with broadband, given the lower churn rate for bundled customers. Discounting will be saved for mobile, which pleased the broker.

FY23 capital expenditure guidance was higher than the broker expected, driven mainly by one-offs, says Credit Suisse, and partly related to fibre builds which should reduce cost of deployment per connection.

Target price eases to $3.60 from $3.70 to account for higher capex. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $1
If ABB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.10, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ALL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Aristocrat Leisure's September-quarter results suggest a strong close for the company according to the Eilers survey but Credit Suisse's survey of Aristocrat's revenue sources suggest October digital trends softened.

EPS forecasts rise 0.5% to 9% across FY22 to FY25, thanks to expansion of US revenue share installed base, currency windfalls; likely improved margins in digital and the $500m share buyback. Credit Suisse sits below consensus by 1% to 3%.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform to reflect recent share-price strength but the broker continues to consider the company to be a core holding.

Target price rises to $37.20 from $36.00.

Target price is $37.20 Current Price is $37.01 Difference: $0.19
If ALL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.53, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALL as Add (1) -

In anticipation of Aristocrat Leisure's FY22 result on Wednesday November 16, Morgans forecasts 25% growth in earnings (EBITA) to $1,597m and 29% growth in profit (NPATA) to $1,111m.

The broker's estimates are -1% below consensus forecasts.

The Add rating and $43.00 target are unchanged.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $37.01 Difference: $5.99
If ALL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.53, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BBN as Neutral (3) -

Citi assesses headwinds for Baby Bunting's margins and believes pressures from its loyalty program and increased input costs (diesel prices and currency) are likely to continue into the 2Q.

The broker also highlights the importance of the exclusive product and private label strategies, given competitive pricing pressures appear to be less than for non-exclusive products.

The Neutral rating and $3.32 target are retained.

Target price is $3.32 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $0.78
If BBN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting upside of 54.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CSL as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Credit Suisse examines the September-quarter results for CSL's offshore comps and finds Seqirus and Behring to have improved marginally but Vifor remains weak.

The broker upgrades CSL's EPS forecasts 1% to 2% accordingly.

Target price rises to $310 from $305.

Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral, the broker expecting the market will focus in on Behring's strong growth in plasma collections.

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $279.61 Difference: $30.39
If CSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $324.78, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

Domain Holdings Australia's September-quarter update met Credit Suisse's forecasts but the broker observes listings did falter from mid September and the company has confirmed national listings fell -18% in October, year on year.

A similar trend has been observed for REA Group.

Management is revisiting FY23 guidance and costs, and to date expects a low single-digit fall in earnings from FY22.

EPS forecasts fall -10% to -11% across FY23 to FY24.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $3.40 a share from $4.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.37
If DHG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DHG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett's industry data suggest REA Group continues to outperform Domain Holdings Australia on Tier 1 depth adoption. The broker expects this trend to continue, anticipating REA Group will take greater depth share and adoption as the market softens. 

The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.44 from $4.00.

Target price is $3.44 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.41
If DHG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DHG as Buy (1) -

A solid first quarter trading update from Domain Holdings Australia according to UBS, with digital revenue up 24% year-on-year, and total revenue 23% year-on-year. 

Less positively, second quarter market conditions, particularly in inner metro areas, have rapidly deteriorated. Trading conditions have driven Domain to place its full year cost guidance under review, and UBS has reduced its earnings forecast by -4%.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.90 from $4.00.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.87
If DHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes execution risks for Evolution Mining are easing at Red Lake and upgrades its rating to Overweight from Equal-weight. The target is increased to $3.10 from $2.55. Industry View: Attractive. 

The company is now Morgan Stanley's preferred sector exposure from among stocks under its research coverage.

The broker sees potential at Red Lake for more throughput and higher reserve grades, which could lift group production by around 9%.

Potential mine life extension at Ernest Henry also supports the analyst's investment thesis

Separately, Morgan Stanley sees upside for the gold price from a potential slowing in rate hikes and a peaking of the US dollar index (DXY). Undemanding valuations are noted in the Gold sector and multiples for stocks are expected to increase.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.75
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.63, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVT as Buy (1) -

Citi came away from EVT Ltd's investor day impressed by the number of potential ways business performance can be improved and noting the $2bn property exposure provides support in an uncertain macro environment.

The broker also highlights Lylo, a new growth opportunity with strong unit economics, in the company's hostel operations.

Management expects Cinemas to be resilient in the face of rising cost of living pressures. The analyst is more wary, given customers may be ultimately deterred by the premiumisation that has occurred over the last 10 years.

The Buy rating and $17.71 target are retained.

Target price is $17.71 Current Price is $14.10 Difference: $3.61
If EVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNX as Hold (3) -

Genex Power's 1Q report revealed an additional $10m -$15m in costs to complete the Main Access Tunnel for the Kidston Pumped Storage project. Management noted cash flows from solar and battery projects are sufficient to avoid an equity raise.

Despite the potential for long-term gains, Morgans feels short-term uncertainty is weighing on the outlook and reduces its target to 20c from 25c. The delay in receipt of a binding offer for the outstanding takeover bid also weighed on the analyst's valuation. Hold.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.02
If GNX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

As the National Australia Bank share price has rallied since Citi upgraded to a Buy rating in September, the rating now falls back to Neutral, following yesterday's FY22 result that delivered few surprises. The $32.75 target is unchanged.

In yesterday's research, Citi noted cash earnings of $7,104m were in line with it's own forecast and that of consensus. The 2H22 net interest margin (NIM) of 1.67% was also considered in line.

The analyst felt material cost revisions by the market are unlikely, as consensus is already factoring in around -5% cost worsening in FY23.

The broker pointed out business lending has been a key point of differentiation for National Australia Bank versus peers, but macro forecasts indicate a sharp slowdown. So, despite a strong result, it's felt this factor may be uppermost in investor's minds.

Citi placed the FY22 result in context, by suggesting it lands between Westpac ((WBC)) (targeting cost reductions) and ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) (accelerating investment spend) for FY23.

Target price is $32.75 Current Price is $31.66 Difference: $1.09
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.12, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

On closer examination of National Australia Bank's FY22 result, Credit Suisse increases its FY23 earnings estimates by 3% and lowers FY24 estimates by -3%.

The broker believes the bank is executing well but doubts rising interest rates will be able to fend off the effects of rising inflation and investment on expenses.

Otherwise, all's good, the bank enjoying a strong balance sheet, backed by rising margins.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $32.40 from $31.66.

Target price is $32.40 Current Price is $31.66 Difference: $0.74
If NAB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.12, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

National Australia Bank delivered another good result, Macquarie suggests, underpinned by solid performances in the Business Bank and NZ franchise. Interest rate leverage started to come through in the second half, albeit below expectations.

It was also below that delivered by peers, the broker notes, reducing the potential upside risk to margins in the first half FY23.

With limited upside risk to FY23 earnings and likely downside risk to consensus in FY24, coupled with NAB trading significant premiums to peers bar Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)), Macquarie sees limited scope for further re-rating for both the sector and NAB.

Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. Target unchanged at $32.25.

Target price is $32.25 Current Price is $31.66 Difference: $0.59
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.12, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Equal-weight (3) -

Following FY22 results for National Australia Bank, Morgan Stanley points out underlying margin trends look similar to that shown in recent reporting by ANZ Bank and Westpac.

Second half pre-provision profit and revenue missed the broker's forecasts by around -5% and -3%, respectively. Operating trends were considered sound for the financial year and balance sheet settings are solid.

No cost guidance was provided for FY23 though Morgan Stanley forecasts increased expenses due to higher inflation, lower productivity benefits, rising D&A expenses and more investment spending.

While EPS forecasts fall by -2-3% over the forecast period, the target rises to $30.00 from $29.60 on a higher assumption by the analyst for return on equity (ROE). The Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

The 78c 2H dividend was in line with Morgan Stanley's forecast.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $31.66 Difference: minus $1.66 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.12, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Hold (3) -

Following FY22 results for National Australia Bank that were in line with consensus expectations, Morgans factors into FY23 EPS forecasts lower net interest margin (NIM) leverage and higher costs. 

EPS downgrades for FY24 are less than for FY23, and forecasts rise by 6% in FY25 on the assumption of a plateau for the NIM. The target is increased to $30.63 from $30.30 and the Hold rating is maintained.

A reduced share count courtesy of a buyback meant cash EPS rose by 6% in FY22, explains the broker. A 78 cents fully franked dividend was declared.

For the outlook, management noted a rising net interest margin, higher costs and was increasingly cautious on the future credit risk environment.

Target price is $30.63 Current Price is $31.66 Difference: minus $1.03 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.12, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Accumulate (2) -

While National Australia Bank's second half cash earnings were in line with consensus, they were a -3% miss to Ord Minnett's top-of-market expectations. 

Notably, while competitors Westpac Bank's ((WBC)) and ANZ Bank's ((ANZ)) net interest margin results both exceeded expectations, National Australia Bank failed to deliver upside. However, Ord Minnett highlights this could suggest less decline in outer years. 

The Accumulate rating is retained and the target price increases to $33.80 from $33.70.

Target price is $33.80 Current Price is $31.66 Difference: $2.14
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.12, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley sees upside for the gold price from a potential slowing in rate hikes and a peaking of the US dollar index (DXY). Undemanding valuations are noted in the Gold sector and multiples for stocks are expected to increase.

Newcrest Mining remains a key Overweight for the broker and the target rises to $23.00 from $21.40.

Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $19.41 Difference: $3.59
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.14, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley sees upside for the gold price from a potential slowing in rate hikes and a peaking of the US dollar index (DXY). Undemanding valuations are noted in the Gold sector and multiples for stocks are expected to increase.

While the target for Northern Star Resources rises to 10.80 from $9.25, the broker downgrades its rating to Equal-weight from Overweight on valuation after outperforming peers year-to-date.

Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $10.04 Difference: $0.76
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.19, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWH as Buy (1) -

NRW Holdings reiterated full year revenue guidance of $2.6-2.7bn and earnings guidance of $162-172m, with recent contract wins securing $2.5bn in revenue for FY23.

UBS highlights the company's near-term tender pipeline remains robust, with a potential $20bn being awarded over the coming year, including $0.8bn in Civil construction projects which the broker expects could offer upside to guidance. 

The Buy rating and target price of $3.10 are retained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.50 Difference: $0.6
If NWH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NWS as Outperform (1) -

News Corp's September-quarter result broadly met consensus forecasts and fell a touch shy of Credit Suisse's estimates due to softness in Digital Real Estate Services and Books, and the broker downgrades its forecasts for both divisions accordingly.

Management confirms the Fox Corp merger will need majority shareholder approval not affiliated with the Murdoch Trust.

Management also pointed to challenges in the December quarter arising from the Amazon warehouse consolidation.

Outperform rating retained, the broker believing the recent share-price retreat to be overdone given most of the above headwinds will reverse in the June half. Target price eases to $37.60 from $38.

Target price is $37.60 Current Price is $23.04 Difference: $14.56
If NWS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.70, suggesting upside of 34.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

Citi raises its target for Orica to $15.50 from $14.70 following FY22 results. Neutral retained.

This follows the broker's research released yesterday (on results day), which noted a modest beat versus Citi's forecasts and strong pricing across all regions. Earnings (EBIT) exceeded the consensus forecast by 6%.

Given the macroeconomic conditions, the broker considered management's FY23 outlook commentary was surprisingly constructive, with FY23 earnings expected to be ahead of FY22 on growth in global commodities demand.

The company noted inflation pressures, particularly from energy, are an ongoing challenge and cost-reduction initiatives will be introduced.

Guidance is for FY23 capex to be within $400-$420m, while gearing is expected to remain below the stated range of 30-40%.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $15.07 Difference: $0.43
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.18, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

Orica's FY22 result sharply outpaced consensus and Credit Suisse's forecasts, a tight market facilitating swift cost pass-ons and higher-than-expected price rises.

Credit Suisse observes the company has entered FY23 sold-out with several plants set to be upgraded, and the broker spies growth and cost headwinds and downgrades forecasts across FY23 to FY25.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $15.23 from $14.55 to reflect a reduction in the company's debt over the period.

Target price is $15.23 Current Price is $15.07 Difference: $0.16
If ORI meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.18, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

Orica's FY22 profit was 4% above Macquarie, benefiting from $12m Russian second half earnings versus a nil Russia assumption, but still a beat.

The company continues to manage higher costs well, the broker suggests, via timely pass-through mechanisms and is benefiting from improved pricing and mix. Pricing is assisted by tight global ammonium nitrate markets and a value-over-volume focus.

Target rises to $16.00 from $15.10 on lower debt and a higher market PE. Neutral retained as despite de-rating lately, the stock still trades on an elevated valuation, Macquarie suggests.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $15.07 Difference: $0.93
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.18, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORI as Overweight (1) -

Orica's FY22 group underlying earnings (EBIT) were a 4% beat compared to Morgan Stanley's forecast and a rise of 36% on the previous corresponding period.

Cash generation was better than the market had feared and the analyst points out a favourable price/mix offset tight markets and meaningful cost inflation. 

The broker's target rises to $18.40 from $17.80. The analyst suggests pricing leverage represents the next leg of upside and retains an Overweight rating. Industry view is In-Line.

Just as as contracts set three to five years ago at around $500-550/t begin to roll off, notes the analyst, the ammonia nitrate import parity price currently currently sits at around $1,200/t (management approximation).

Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $15.07 Difference: $3.33
If ORI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.18, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORI as Hold (3) -

Morgans retains its Hold rating and $14.55 target following FY22 results for Orica that revealed 36% earnings (EBIT) growth and beat expectations.

The analyst highlights strong demand, tight industry supply, rising ammonium nitrate prices and improved product mix (more premium product sales).

Management upgraded its three-year (FY223-25) return on net assets (RONA) target to 10.5-13% from 10-12%.

While earnings forecasts are unchanged (as is the $14.55 target) the impact of higher interest rates causes the broker's FY23-25 profit forecasts to fall by -4.3%, -3.0% and -2.3%, respectively. Hold.

Target price is $14.55 Current Price is $15.07 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.18, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORI as Hold (3) -

Orica's full year earnings result was a 6% beat to consensus, with group volumes up 4% year-on-year underpinned by a constrained ammonia market and a mix shift to premium products. 

Ord Minnett is optimistic for more profitable earnings ahead given company commentary focused on digital capabilities and commercial discipline, as well as increase to return on net assets targets. The company guides to earnings from continued operations growth in the coming fiscal year.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to $15.60 from $17.00.

Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $15.07 Difference: $0.53
If ORI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.18, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Full year earnings growth from Orica of 36%, to $579m, was a 6% beat to UBS's expectations. The result was underpinned by a strong second half performance, with second half earnings 11% ahead of the broker's assumptions. 

Orica has guided to earnings growth momentum carrying into the new fiscal year. UBS anticipates uplift from contract repricing will support a growth outlook, and forecasts minimum 12% earnings growth in FY23. 

The Buy rating and target price of $18.00 are retained.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $15.07 Difference: $2.93
If ORI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.18, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PPH as No Rating (-1) -

Pushpay Holdings' first half result and FY23 guidance met previously announced numbers. Customer growth was softer than expected, Macquarie notes, as churn increases.

Management cites economic and competitive pressures for slower growth.

Macquarie is currently restricted from making a recommendation.

Current Price is $1.17. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates REA as Outperform (1) -

REA Group's September-quarter result met Credit Suisse's forecasts but listings in October have fallen -18% year on year, notes the broker.

On the upside, management guides to lower costs in FY23.

The broker lowers FY23 listing forecasts -7% and operating expenditure guidance, resulting in a net cut to earnings (EBITDA) forecasts of -1% to -2%.

Outperform rating retained. Target price falls to $140.80 from $143. 

Target price is $140.80 Current Price is $114.11 Difference: $26.69
If REA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.94, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates REA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's initial impression of yesterday's 1Q result for REA Group was of a small miss versus expectations, which will likely lower the broker's FY23 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by -$40-50m.

Channel checks by the analyst suggest listings will fall by -20% to -30% over the next four to six months.

Regarding the outlook, management now point to costs of "lower to high single digits" from "high single digit to low double digit".

The Equal-weight rating and $130 target are unchanged. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $114.11 Difference: $15.89
If REA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.94, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates REA as Add (1) -

Following 1Q results for REA Group, Morgans lower its FY23-FY25 EPS forecasts by around -4%. Stronger revenues for India are more than offset by lower-than-previously-forecast 1H listings volumes for Australian ‘Residential’ and ‘Developer’.

The broker considers the 1Q results showed resilience though the 2Q faces pressure from potentially weaker sentiment due to interest rate rises. Also, the company will be cycling a strong listings environment in the previous corresponding period.

The target falls to $138 from $143, while the Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $138.00 Current Price is $114.11 Difference: $23.89
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.94, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates REA as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett's industry data suggest REA Group continues to outperform Domain Holdings Australia ((DHG)) on Tier 1 depth adoption. The broker expects this trend to continue, anticipating REA Group will take greater depth share and adoption as the market softens. 

The Accumulate rating is retained and the target price decreases to $132.00 from $140.00.

Target price is $132.00 Current Price is $114.11 Difference: $17.89
If REA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.94, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REA as Neutral (3) -

While REA Group's first quarter results were a -3% miss to UBS's expectations the broker is watchful for a potential uplift in refinancing activity. The broker anticipates the expectation of further rate rises will continue to weigh on seller sentiment near-term. 

The company has guided to an -18% listings decline year-on-year in October, and early signs point to a -25% decline year-on-year in November. UBS has lowered its FY23 listings growth assumption to -10% from -12%, and its revenue and earnings by, on average, -3% and -6% through to FY25.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $126.30 from $135.10.

Target price is $126.30 Current Price is $114.11 Difference: $12.19
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.94, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley sees upside for the gold price from a potential slowing in rate hikes and a peaking of the US dollar index (DXY). Undemanding valuations are noted in the Gold sector and multiples for stocks are expected to increase.

The target for Regis Resources rises to $1.70 from $1.30, despite the broker noting  -5% downside risk to FY24 consensus production forecasts. The analyst is cautious on production at Duketon North.

The Underweight rating is unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGM as Neutral (3) -

Increased competition and tightening trading margins appear to be weighing on Sims' performance, with the company guiding to first half earnings of $65-75m, a notable miss from consensus forecasts of $130m.

UBS feels risk remains to the downside given current ferrous scrap prices and global macro risks. The company has identified further cost reductions to be implemented in the second half, and has reduced full year capital expenditure by -$50m.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $12.40 from $15.50.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $12.13 Difference: $0.27
If SGM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.67, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SSR as Buy (1) -

SSR Mining's September quarter gold production of 76,000 ounces missed UBS's expected 97,000 ounces. While expectations for Copler were modest given the Copler mine wasn't restarted until the end of the quarter, but production from Marigold and Seabee was weak. 

Gold guidance for the year was reduced -13%, assuming a strong fourth quarter. The broker also highlights all in sustaining costs were elevated during the quarter.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $23.20 from $24.25.

Target price is $23.20 Current Price is $21.76 Difference: $1.44
If SSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Santos' investor day disappointed the market on 2023 production and capex guidance, Macquarie notes. The broker remains focused on long-term free cash flow growth potential, and guidance on this exceeded expectations.

Macquarie believes short-term share price weakness around the investor day presents an opportunity for longer-term investors. Santos is well positioned to deliver a series of catalysts that were simply not in time for the investor day update.

Target falls to $9.90 from $10.00, Outperform retained.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $7.64 Difference: $2.26
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.34, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley feels a refreshed strategy positions Santos as an energy-transition play. 

The company has grouped midstream infrastructure, carbon trading and land-based projects into "Santos Energy Solutions" (SES).

The broker sees Santos as a strong free cashflow producer of preferred hydrocarbons (Asia LNG), with strong balance sheet capacity for measured backfill (Darwin LNG, Barossa) and capital management.

The Overweight rating and $9.31 target are retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $9.31 Current Price is $7.64 Difference: $1.67
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.34, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SWM as Buy (1) -

Judging from Seven West Media's update at the AGM, revenue is progressing in line with prior guidance, UBS analysts comment in a quick follow-up.

UBS makes the point there are a lot of moving parts in the business and its outlook, such as that the NBCU deal will increase annual costs.

The broker does acknowledge, management's prior cost guidance ex the NBCU deal hasn't changed.

Buy. Target 85c.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.39
If SWM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.68, suggesting upside of 51.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Despite downgraded guidance by Whitehaven Coal for open cut mine production, Citi notes the value on offer now that shares have fallen by around -15% this week, and upgrades to a Neutral rating from Sell. The target slips to $8.00 from $8.50.

The lower run-of-mine (ROM) Coal production guidance falls to 19.0-20.4mt from 20.0-22.0mt, due to current and forecast weather impacts and ongoing labour constraints, explains the analyst. Also, guidance for unit costs of coal rises to $95-102/t from $89-96/t.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.61 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.14, suggesting upside of 33.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

Whitehaven Coal downgrades FY23 guidance to reflect continued disruptions from wet weather.

FY23 managed run-of-mine production was downgraded -6% mainly due to challenges at Maules. Narrabri guidance was upgraded.

Equity coal sales forecasts fell -4%, which, struck on lower volume, result in a -7% increase in unit costs, observes the broker.

Outperform rating retained, the broker considering the share-price retreat punitive and that current pricing provides value opportunities and that 2023 will be increasingly difficult without Russian coal supply - not to mention the buyback, hedging and a rocking balance sheet. (Although Credit Suisse says the share-price retreat could also reflect a decline on the ICE Futures curve.)

Target price eases to $12 from $12.30.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $8.61 Difference: $3.39
If WHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.14, suggesting upside of 33.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

The BOM expects a high chance of above-median rainfall for November to January on the Australian east coast. Whitehaven Coal has lowered its FY23 production guidance and increased its cost guidance, citing continued wet weather impacts.

Despite weather headwinds, buoyant coal prices continue to drive attractive free cash flow yields of above 50% on Macquarie's forecasts and in a spot price scenario.

Target falls to $13.20 from $14.00, Outperform retained.

Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $8.61 Difference: $4.59
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.14, suggesting upside of 33.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Due to La Nina impacts, Whitehaven Coal has downgraded run-of-mine production guidance at the group level by -6% to 19-20.4Mt, which compares with Morgan Stanley's prior 20.3Mt forecast.

Cost guidance has been increased by -6% (midpoint) to $95-102/t and management sees labour constraints continuing. Costs are also being impacted as the low-cost Maules Creek becomes a smaller proportion of group guidance.

The Overweight rating and $11.55 target are retained. Industry view Attractive.

Target price is $11.55 Current Price is $8.61 Difference: $2.94
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.14, suggesting upside of 33.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Flooding and wet weather has impacted on Whitehaven Coal's production, with the company lowering production guidance by 1.0-1.6m tonnes, to 19.0-20.4m tonnes. 

UBS has lowered its own forecasts, with Maules Creek down -1.0m tonnes to 10.7m tonnes and Gunnedah down -0.2m tonnes to 3.3m tonnes, while Narrabri forecasts were retained.

While retaining a Buy rating, the  broker notes risks to its FY23 outlook. The target price decreases to $9.50 from $10.00.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.61 Difference: $0.89
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.14, suggesting upside of 33.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates XRO as Accumulate (2) -

Xero released interim financials earlier this morning and Ord Minnett comments, upon initial assessment, soft subscriber growth has been offset by stronger pricing.

The latter is a result of strong growth in average revenue per user (ARPU) -at 13%, but 6% only ex-FX. The broker does point out this is in line with (or the result of) Xero's more price driven strategy.

Sukhinder Singh Cassidy will become the new CEO, starting on 1 February next year and Ord Minnett points out he comes with more of a technology background with prior experience at Google, StubHub and eBay.

The broker anticipates only minor downgrades to consensus forecasts on higher costs and slower growth in subscribers.

Accumulate. Target $97.

Target price is $97.00 Current Price is $72.62 Difference: $24.38
If XRO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $99.41, suggesting upside of 53.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates XRO as Neutral (3) -

UBS, in an initial response to today's H1 release, believes Xero has missed forecasts on slower growth in subscribers while at the EBITDA level, the miss is due to continued reinvestment.

The disappointment seems to have come from international operations, while the home base in A&NZ continues to perform, the broker observes.

Management maintained cost guidance at the lower end of 80%-85% of revenues, but also made slight changes to the composition, with a slight decrease now guided for Sales & Marketing and an increase in R&D.

The company does predict subscriber growth momentum is likely to pick up in the UK and in North America, reports the broker.

Neutral. Target $80.40.

Target price is $80.40 Current Price is $72.62 Difference: $7.78
If XRO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $99.41, suggesting upside of 53.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources