Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates A1N as Neutral (3) -

ARN Media and Anchorage Capital have launched a non-binding indicative cash and scrip offer to buy the balance of the shares they don't already own in Southern Cross Media. ARN Media's existing stake is 14.8%.

Under the deal, the consortium will pay 29.6c and 0.753 ARN Media shares for each Southern Cross share.

Macquarie says this equates to a shares price of 94c, based on the last closing price.

Given the company cannot buy all of Southern Cross's assets under existing ACMA and ACCC rules, the consortium is combining and splitting the asset. 

The broker understands that Anchorage is funding the cash component and ARN Media the scrip component.

The company expects the transaction will prove to be double-digit earnings accretive and will have little affect on the company's financial leverage.

At first glance, Macquarie considers the deal to be sensible and a creative way to overcome regulative hurdles in an industry in need of consolidation. The broker prefers radio over other formats. Neutral rating and $1 target price retained.

Neutral rating retained. Target price eases -3% to $1 from $1.03.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.18
If A1N meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AAC as Buy (1) -

Given downward movement in live cattle and upward movement in grain pricing since Australian Agricultural Co reported on its full year, Bell Potter has issues earnings downgrades of -9%, -40% and -33% through to FY26.

The downgrade reflects lower live cattle sales values of between -10-32% per year, alongside higher feed cost assumptions. This comes as the average Eastern Young Cattle Indicator value declined -45% year-on-year in the first half. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.85 from $2.15.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.33 Difference: $0.525
If AAC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALU as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett finds Altium exceptionally well run and positioned to take further share in the design software market for printed circuit boards. The broker anticipates revenue growing at a compound annual growth rate of 17% over the next decade, while earnings margins expand to 43% from 33%.

The broker considers Altium's Octopart marketplace the primary growth driver, and believes the platform is in early stages of making and taking the market for online marketing of electronic components. It expects Altium to benefit as online becomes a larger part of the market. 

The broker initiates with a Hold rating and a target price of $47.50.

Target price is $47.50 Current Price is $42.55 Difference: $4.95
If ALU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.45, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

AMP's September-quarter disappointed Citi, which now expects net-interest margins will fail to meet FY23 guidance.

The broker suspects the company may need to stay growth ambitions just to hold its margins.

Platform flows and master trust flows fell shy of the broker's expectation.

EPS forecasts are cut -3% for FY23; -4% for FY24; and -3% for FY25.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $1.15 from $1.25.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.015
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

While Ord Minnett finds AMP undervalued at its current price, it also acknowledges corporate uncertainty and high staff turnover in recent years, alongside revelations from the Royal Commission, have impacted on earnings potential and the company's legacy brand. 

The broker expects it is unlikely AMP can improve its relative competitive position given its competitive advantages of distributional reach and brand recognition have diminished since 2018.

More likely, according to the broker, is a moderation of flows and rebound in operating margins, which could drive a re-rate. The rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate and the target price of $1.35 is retained.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.215
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMP as Sell (5) -

AMP's third quarter Wealth flows missed UBS forecasts, while Bank volumes accelerated at the expense of margin. Net funds flows in the three key wealth divisions were all negative.

The analyst had anticipated an improvement in sector flows, which was confirmed by a simultaneously strong performance by HUB24 ((HUB)), making AMP's 3Q relatively disappointing.

Over in New Zealand, gross inflows picked up, yet outflows were elevated as legacy products were divested.

While loan growth for the bank accelerated in the 3Q, FY23 NIM guidance was lowered to "below previous guidance of 130-135bps" due to a competitive pricing environment, suggests the broker.

UBS lowers its FY23-24 cash EPS forecasts by -5-12% after incorporating a more subdued Wealth flows outlook and a lower bank
net interest margin (NIM).

The target falls to $1.00 from $1.08. Sell.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: minus $0.135 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AWC as Buy (High Risk) (1) -

Alumina Ltd's JV partner Alcoa has released its September quarter report and Citi analysts, upon initial glance, see slight improvements taking plavce, but without changing the dial significantly.

One positive takeaway, according to Citi, is there seems to be a pathway towards improved WA bauxite grades but not before 2027, implying investors might have to exert patience.

Minorities' loss (AWC) increased to -US$25m for the quarter. Mining lower grades is set to continue to at least 2027. Refineries in Australia are adapting to input from lower grade bauxite.

Also, Alcoa expects a US$50m benefit from lower raw material prices, lower production costs and higher volumes, partially offset by -US$10m in higher energy costs, the broker points out.

Buy/High Risk. Target $1.30.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: $0.34
If AWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.22, suggesting upside of 35.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

On second examination of BHP Group's September-quarter trading update, which marked a slight "miss" on Citi's forecasts, the broker retains a Neutral rating and cuts its target price to $44 from $45.

The culprit was met coal where longwall issues, maintenance and higher stripping costs weighed down performance.

The broker observers Whitehaven Coal is set to purchase Daunia and Blackwater mines in the FY24 June quarter for US$3.2bn (US2.1bn upfront and US$1.1bn deferred over three years).

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $45.88 Difference: minus $1.88 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.87, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

BHP Group reported a solid September quarter with Macquarie observing beats in iron ore, copper and energy divisions, offset by weakness in metallurgical coal volume. FY24 guidance was retained.

The announced sale of its stake in Daunia and Blackwater mines to Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) for -US$3.2bn and contingent payments of up to US$900m provides the company with a clean exit from coal assets given Whitehaven is responsible for both operations' rehabilitation, observes Macquarie. 

The deal if expected to be finalised in the June quarter.

Outperform rating and $47 target price retained.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $45.88 Difference: $1.12
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.87, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley approves of the announced sale of the Blackwater/Daunia coal assets. The broker notes an improved net debt position for BHP Group, as well as the premium $5bn sale valuation achieved, a circa 9% beat versus expectation.

It's also assumed US$900m in contingent payments will be paid to BHP by Whitehaven Coal based on the analysts' coal price forecasts. This outcome would increase the sale premium to around 21% compared to the top-end of the $5.3bn originally estimated.

The target price rises to $44.20 from $43.90. Equal-weight. Industry view is Attractive.

Separately, Morgan Stanley reviews Q1 production figures as follows: copper was broadly in line with both the broker and consensus, but there was a softer performance for iron ore, while there was a material miss for met coal production.

All guidance remains unchanged, allowing three quarter for a catch-up, suggests the broker.

Target price is $44.20 Current Price is $45.88 Difference: minus $1.68 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.87, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -

BHP Group's first quarter sales were in-line with Ord Minnett's expectations, with the company reiterating full year guidance. The company's West Australian iron ore operations reported sales of 64m metric tonnes, a modest increase on the previous quarter. 

The company is set to sell its Daunia and Blackwater mine stake to Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)). The combined sale of BHP Group and Mitsubishi's shares will fetch a price of US$3.2bn, with additional proceeds of US$900m dependent on met coal pricing over three years. 

The Hold rating and target price of $41.00 are retained.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $45.88 Difference: minus $4.88 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.87, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CCP as Neutral (3) -

Credit Corp has logged an impairment in its US Purchased Debt Ledger due to a decline in collection performance, and downgrades FY24 earnings guidance by -10.5% (underlying) and -57.9% (including the impairment), advises Macquarie.

Acquisitions and net-lending guidance were retained and Macquarie observes this should continue to drive growth in US markets.

Rising delinquencies, first noted in the June quarter, have continued into the September quarter. Net debt at June 2023 was $250m.

EPS forecasts fall -61% in FY24; -4% in FY25; and -2% in FY26.

Neutral rating retained. Target price slumps to $11.80 from $19.30.

Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $11.97 Difference: minus $0.67 (current price is over target).
If CCP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.35, suggesting upside of 44.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCP as No Rating (-1) -

Following a disappointing trading update from Credit Corp, Ord Minnett has placed its rating for the stock under review. The broker highlights Credit Corp intends to impair 14% of its US debt ledger assets, resulting in a -$45m reduction in profit after tax in FY24.

The broker attributes the debt ledger impairment to higher interest rates, which have also driven a deterioration in cash collections, but also suggests to Ord Minnett the US is more competitive than it had anticipated which challenges the broker's expected growth. 

The broker is concerned about a lack of visibility around the longer-term profitability of Credit Corp's US operations, with no evidence of how it will perform against rapidly rising interest rates.

Current Price is $11.97. Target price not assessed.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CGF as Add (1) -

Morgans makes only minor adjustments to forecasts for Challenger following a 1Q performance update. While headline annuity sales grew by 18% on the previous corresponding period, the recent defined benefit deal with Aware Super contributed heavily.

The broker points out management was more focused on improving the business mix rather than striving for growth, resulting in 1Q Life book growth of -0.2%, below recent average levels of around 2.5%.

The target falls to $7.14 from $7.37. The Add rating is retained.

Target price is $7.14 Current Price is $6.29 Difference: $0.85
If CGF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.73, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CTD as Buy (1) -

Following today's market update, Citi analysts surmise Corporate Travel Management is traveling in line with their forecasts.

That assumption is made without any growth in the corporate travel market itself, with airline schedules suggesting that assumption is understating market growth.

Adjusted for the additional growth implies H1 profits could well be 7% ahead of the broker's current FY24 forecast. Citi continues to see further upside potential.

Buy. Target $22.55.

Target price is $22.55 Current Price is $16.96 Difference: $5.59
If CTD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.40, suggesting upside of 37.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CTT as Buy (1) -

Cettire has reported a sizable 10% sales revenue beat to Bell Potter in its first quarter, with sales revenue of $141.3m up 122% on the previous comparable period, with largely in line earnings margins. To date, second quarter sales revenue is already up 80%. 

The broker believes Cettire can continue to outperform peers, despite industry softness. Alongside a 0.5% market share in a large personal luxury goods market, the broker also considers Cettire's earnings margins ahead of peers and its drop-ship inventory model to be low risk. 

The Buy rating and target price of $4.00 are retained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $1.46
If CTT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DRR as Neutral (3) -

Deterra Royalties reports September-quarter production from BHP Group's South Flank ramp-up has been slowed by maintenance issues but Macquarie expects volumes will increase by year end as the ramp-up accelerates.

Production from Mining Area C fell -16% shy of Macquarie's forecasts and BHP's realised iron ore prices fell -1% shy of Macquarie's expectations.

The broker's forecast fully franked dividend yield is 6% to 7% for FY24 and FY25 (8% based on spot prices).

Neutral rating and $4.80 target price retained.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.80, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Evolution Mining's September-quarter result missed consensus forecasts but Citi observes the company's share price rose as investors chose to look through Red Lake softness and impending maintenance.

Management retained guidance across all sites, and forecast a stronger December half, and the broker observes EHM's return to normal operating life improved operating mine cash flows by 42% on the June quarter.

The company closed the quarter with $78.5m cash, up $32.5m.

Neutral rating and $3.60 target price retained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: $0.01
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

Evolution Mining's September-quarter disappointed Macquarie, production falling -14% short of the broker's forecasts while all-in-sustaining costs were 5% higher than forecast.

Free cash flow disappointed, the company posting an outflow of -$26.4m, compared with Macquarie's expectations of a $1.4m improvement. The broker estimates net debt of $1.8bn.

FY24 production and cost guidance were retained as was growth capital guidance of $450m to $490m, the company expecting an improvement as the year progresses.

EPS forecasts fall -15% in FY24; and rise 1% to 4% across FY25 to FY30.

Underperform rating and $3.50 target price retained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Overweight (1) -

While a 1Q production miss at Red Lake had already been flagged by Evolution Mining, production at Mungari also missed forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus by -25% and -11%, respectively.

Overall, group gold production of 158koz was weaker than the broker and consensus had estimated by -14% and-12%, respectively. Weaker production also drove higher all-in-sustaining costs than forecast.

Despite these misses, Morgan Stanley feels unchanged FY24 guidance is achievable.

Overweight rating. Target $4.35. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: $0.76
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Morgans assesses a steady Q1 production result for Evolution Mining. FY24 production and cost guidance were also maintained.

Mine operating cash flow rose by 42% to $280m, largely because of a return to normal production at Ernest Henry and a consistent performance at Cowal.

The broker remains Hold-rated on caution around net debt levels, the potential for budget overruns and operational challenges at the Red Lake operations in Canada.

The $3.40 target price is retained.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Given early disclosure from Evolution Mining around its Red Lake project, the company's softish start to the year hasn't surprised Ord Minnett, and does not appear to have phased the market. 

The Cowal and Mungari assets both slightly underperformed on throughput and grade, but Ord Minnett does anticipate quarter-on-quarter production improvements at both sites, as well as Red Lake. This should see Evolution Mining meet the lower end of full year guidance. 

The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.60 from $3.65.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: $0.01
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Buy (1) -

While Evolution Mining had flagged a 2H production weighting, 1Q production still missed the production and cost forecasts of UBS by -9% and -8%, respectively.

Management maintained FY24 guidance of 770koz of gold.

Given the recent rally for the gold price, the broker keeps a Buy rating and $3.70 target. It's felt copper remains the key driver and differentiator for the stock. UBS recently upgraded its long-term copper price forecast to US$4.00/lb.

The Buy rating and $3.70 target are unchanged.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: $0.11
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HUB as Hold (3) -

Hub24 recorded a meaningful $2.8bn of net inflows in the 1Q, according to Morgans, and the Platform funds under administration (FUA) metric now stands at $65.1bn, a rise of 3.8% quarter-on-quarter.

The company's product offering continues to lead the market - along with Netwealth Group ((NWL)) - in the analysts' opinion. Management announced the launch of another product named Discover, a new-cost-effective initiative for lower balance customers.

The Hold rating is maintained, despite long-term share price upside, according to Morgans, while the target rises to $35.10 from $32.80.

Target price is $35.10 Current Price is $31.77 Difference: $3.33
If HUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.77, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates INR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett updates its forecasts for ioneer following changes in the broker's price deck: it forecasts improvements in lithium prices and rising costs. The broker also evaluates risks associated with permitting against ioneer's leverage to the lithium priced.

Onto risks, the broker observes permitting timeframes to be better than most US projects but spies potential downside risk relating to adjustments to the mine plan around critical habitat approvals that could cause project delays or affect inventory.

The company remains sensitive to the lithium price, a 10% improvement capable of driving a 25% improvement from Rhyolite Ridge, with leverage equally matched to the downside. Expansion of Rhyolite ridge could provide upside but study results are required.

The broker also extends project timelines and increases the discount rate.

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target price falls to 40c from 62c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.215
If INR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 116% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KLS as Outperform (1) -

Kelsian Group's September-quarter update suggest some of the staffing pressures to dog its Bus business in FY23 are easing.

The company's Sydney on-time bus running also strengthened in the quarter and is now just 50 basis points below the standard 95% KPI, despite transition, says Macquarie. Recent Sydney bus contract wins are appreciated.

Macquarie expects All Aboard Americas Holdings Inc will post high single-digit percentage growth in FY24 and observed domestic tourism reported strong September school holiday trading and forward bookings (up 9% to the end of 2024).

EPS forecasts fall -1% in FY24; and -2% in FY25 to account for ramp-ups in Sydney's new regions.

The broker appreciates the company's defensive earnings profile. Outperform rating retained. Target price falls to $7.60 from $7.70.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $5.89 Difference: $1.71
If KLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.26, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTR as Sell (5) -

Liontown Resources is set to remain in a trading halt until Friday, or until funding is finalised, observes Citi.

The broker says media reports infer the company is seeking equity to plug a near-term -$450m shortfall along with debt.

Citi's estimates suggest total funding of $450m to $500m will do the trick and observes Mineral Resources' ((MIN)) recent 9.25% bond shows debt is expensive.

The broker observes spodumene prices has fallen -30% in three months since Albemarle launched its bid; Liontown Resources has announced higher capital and operating expenditure, Hancock's 19.9% holding is swinging over the market; the share price is trading at a premium to discounted cash flow while the LithiumCos is trading at a -30% discount, and the company's free float has fallen.

Sell rating and $2.30 target price retained.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.91, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGR as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Mirvac Group has announced a joint acquisition of Serenitas, a land lease business, for an enterprise value of $1.01bn.

The company will invest $300m up front and $240m on settlement, which is expected in the September quarter, 2024.

Citi estimates gearing will rise 1.4% as a result, and observes it follows the recent sale of Sydney's 60 Margaret Street and Metcentre as the company re-weights its portfolio away from office.

The broker considers the company's valuation to be attractive, observing the company is trading at a -17% discount to net tangible assets, and upgrades its rating to Buy rating from Neutral. Target price steady at $2.50.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.42
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 30.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -

Mirvac Group has announced the purchase of a 47.5% stake in land-lease operator Serenitas for $300m.

Macquarie says the acquisition will provide the company with scale exposure to the land 4ease sector as it reduces its office weighting and raises its exposure to higher quality income streams.

The broker estimates the deal will prove to be 2% to 3% accretive to FY25 operating EPS, generating a return on equity of roughly 5%.

Operating EPS forecasts are fairly steady in FY24; rise 2.5% in FY25; and 2.7% in FY26.

Outperform rating retained. Target price eases 2c to $2.64.

Target price is $2.64 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.56
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 30.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Overweight (1) -

While a passive investment with only limited potential for synergies, Morgan Stanley believes the acquisition of 47.5% of Serenitas for $300m will build Mirvac Group's knowledge in the land lease sector.

Serenitas has assets split almost evenly across the east and west coast, note the analysts, with around with $600m tied-up in 4,231 operating sites, and circa $200m invested in 2,025 development sites.

Overall, the transaction accelerates Mirvac's earnings stream tilt towards 'living' sectors and away from capex and incentive-heavy office assets, observes the broker.

The Overweight rating and $2.55 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.47
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 30.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -

In a quick response following today's AGM update by Nick Scali, Citi analysts point out the H1 guidance for net profit between $40m-$42m is between 4% to 9% above current market consensus.

Nick Scali has done it again.

Citi highlights the company joins Beacon Lighting ((BLX)) as a housing-leveraged retailer that reports improving trading momentum. Both are currently Citi's Top Picks among small cap retailers on the ASX.

Target $14.35. Buy.

Target price is $14.35 Current Price is $10.41 Difference: $3.94
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi has decided to downgrade Netwealth Group to Sell from Neutral as Q1 data, released earlier today, signal a weakening in momentum towards the end of the quarter.

Citi analysts are disappointed as management's commentary in August had suggested today's numbers would be better. Netwealth is underperforming peer Hub24 ((HUB)), explains the broker, because of Netwealth's exposure to Wrap rather than to Super.

Forecasts have been lowered. The broker is not sure how to quantify the fresh partnership with iCapital.

Current Price is $14.79. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $15.23, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PAR as Buy (1) -

In support of twelve month efficacy data released last week, Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals has released MRI data for it's PAR_OA_008 treatment, with Bell Potter noting combined, this strongly suggests the underlying cause of pain has been modified. 

The data demonstrated an increase in cartilage volume and thickness, reduction in bone marrow lesion volume, and reduction in inflammation. As far as Bell Potter is aware, no other treatment has demonstrated capability to not only halt disease progression, but also regenerate cartilage. 

Phase 3 dosing is expected to commence in the first quarter of 2024. The Buy rating and target price of $1.40 are retained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.705
If PAR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 101% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Paladin Energy has announced it is now the sole owner of the Michelin uranium project, in a move that clears the way for the company to advance the project according to Shaw and Partners.

The broker expects Paladin Energy will move quickly now, expected an updated pre-feasibility study is likely in early 2024. Although the company's main focus will remain the restart of Heinrich Langer, Shaw and Partners expects Michelin to become a key growth asset. 

The Buy rating and target price of $1.15 are retained.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.2
If PDN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPS as Buy (1) -

Praemium's September-quarter result proved mixed, as outflows from Powerwrap offset a beat from SMA.

All up, net flows rose strongly to $206m but were below Ord Minnett's forecast of $350m.

Ord Minnett expects SMA to maintain its momentum, and expects a turnaround in Powerwrap will prove a catalyst.

EPS forecasts fall roughly -1%. Buy rating and $1 target price retained.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.455
If PPS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RED as Hold (3) -

First quarter production was "solid", according to Morgans, with Red 5 set to attain the top end of FY24 production guidance.

Over the last six months, the broker has been impressed by strong momentum around delivery of profitable ounces and the regional consolidation of the Leonora region. It's felt the company can become an annual producer of more than 200koz over time.

The Hold rating and 30c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If RED meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RED as Buy (1) -

Red 5's pre-released September-quarter result met Ord Minnett's forecasts, thanks to strong higher processed grades that, combined with non-cash items, yielded a strong beat on all in sustaining costs, which fell -26%.

The broker expects grades will come off the boil over FY24 but that this should be matched by an improvement in processing rates, driving the company's result to the top end of guidance.

Ord Minnett expects Red 5 will use excess cash flow to pay down debt.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to 37c from 34c.

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.05
If RED meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RFF as Buy (1) -

Rural Funds continues to trade at its largest discount to market net asset value since listing, with Bell Potter finding the discount to be excessive given the continued resilience of values through rising interest rates and falling commodity prices in the first half of 2023.

Despite softer commodity price trends and El Nino concerns, agricultural land value has remained elevated through the second quarter. Bell Potter finds the stock more biased to reward than to risk at present, given the record discount to market. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.40 from $2.25.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.83 Difference: $0.57
If RFF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMD as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has been engaging industry participants on the potential impact of GLP-1 RA  (weight loss drug) on the obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) market and ResMed.

The broker's conclusion is that the OSA patient population will still continue to grow and expects higher market penetration will be driven by increased awareness and diagnosis.

All up, the broker observes about 60% of moderate to severe OSA cases are caused by obesity and of these only a subset are expected to maintain weight loss on the drugs, and that regardless, the market is forecast to grow, more than offsetting the effects of a material uptake in GLP-1 R out to FY33. It considers the impact on ResMed to be overstated.

Outperform rating and $32.60 target price retained.

Target price is $32.60 Current Price is $22.36 Difference: $10.24
If RMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.89, suggesting upside of 63.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SSM as Neutral (3) -

Service Stream reconfirmed FY24 profit guidance at its AGM (in line with consensus), advising September-quarter trading was in line with forecasts.

Macquarie observes growth is still reliant on infrastructure led investment and margins.

EPS forecasts fall -7% in FY24 and -2.3% in FY25 to reflect adjustments to the broker's depreciation and amortisation and net interest forecasts.

Neutral rating retained, the broker observing that the company, while enjoying tailwinds, has yet to prove it can maintain a consistent performance. Target price rises to 91c from 80c, advising the rise in the company's multiple is justified by guidance confirmation.

Target price is $0.91 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0
If SSM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

At face value, today's quarterly market update by Santos marks a "miss" against market forecasts, but Citi analysts, upon first glance, point out there seems to be an unfavourable inventory build on top of softer realised pricing during the period.

Citi had positioned themselves for volume decline at PNG LNG and thus today's result marks a "strong beat".

There are risks surrounding the Barossa pipeline operations but the broker argues this is already reflected in the share price. Management has left 2023 production guidance intact, Citi observes.

Buy. Target $9.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.85 Difference: $1.15
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.47, suggesting upside of 20.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SXL as Neutral (3) -

ARN Media and Anchorage Capital have launched a non-binding indicative cash and scrip offer to buy the balance of the shares they don't already own in Southern Cross Media. ARN Media's existing stake is 14.8%.

Under the deal, the consortium will pay 29.6c and 0.753 ARN Media shares for each Southern Cross share.

Macquarie says this equates to a shares price of 94c, based on the last closing price.

Given the company cannot buy all of Southern Cross's assets under existing ACMA and ACCC rules, the consortium is combining and splitting the asset. 

The broker understands that Anchorage is funding the cash component and ARN Media the scrip component.

The company expects the transaction will prove to be double-digit earnings accretive and will have little affect on the company's financial leverage.

At first glance, Macquarie considers the deal to be sensible and a creative way to overcome regulative hurdles in an industry in need of consolidation. The broker prefers radio over other formats. Neutral rating and 81c target price retained.

Target price is $0.81 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: minus $0.055 (current price is over target).
If SXL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.00, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SXL as Neutral (3) -

ARN and Anchorage Capital Partners have made a non-binding indicative offer to acquire 100% of the fully diluted share capital of Southern Cross Media via a scheme of arrangement.

Southern Cross Media shareholders could receive 0.753 ARN shares plus 29.6cps, which implies to UBS a total value of
94c per Southern Cross Media share, a 29% premium to the last close.

ARN would acquire Triple M in the metropolitan area, while Anchorage Capital Partners would acquire southern Cross Austereo and parts of ARN's regional stations, explains the broker.

In the truncated UBS research note, no mention is made of rating or target, which were last Neutral and 74c, respectively.

Target price is $0.74 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: minus $0.125 (current price is over target).
If SXL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.00, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SYR as Buy (1) -

Third quarter operating results for Syrah Resources were in line with UBS forecasts.

Management believes current price levels for the company's natural graphite product are unsustainable. An average realised price of US$528/t (CIF China) was achieved for the quarter.

The broker's Buy rating is maintained and the target slips to $1.05 from $1.10, partly resulting from increased cost assumptions for the Balama operations through the period of campaign mining. 

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.605
If SYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 136% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.99, suggesting upside of 114.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TAH as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes proposed regulatory reform following the Federal inquiry into online gambling will increase the strategic importance of Tabcorp Holdings' assets.

The broker points out SkyRacing is excluded from advertising bans and the company's retail venues can be advertised. Partnership deals with turf clubs are also thought to limit downside.

Overall, the Australian wagering industry will have steeper barriers to entry, increased customer acquisition costs, and there may also be industry consolidation, in the broker's view.

The $1.02 target and Neutral rating are maintained.

Target price is $1.02 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.15
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.10, suggesting upside of 26.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TRS as Accumulate (2) -

The Reject Shop has logged an improvement in comparable store sales for the first 15 weeks of FY24 over the previous corresponding period.

Ord Minnett says the company reports strong demand for low-cost consumables, and expects this will continue in FY24.

Accumulate rating and $6.20 target price retained.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.78 Difference: $0.42
If TRS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TYR as Outperform (1) -

Tyro Payments has committed to keeping its banking licence, and the broker believes the company missed a beat in this respect to unlock value and revise its banking strategy.

Macquarie says disclosure was insufficient to gain insight into the company's rationale that the incremental funding costs of retaining hte licence would exceed the fixed costs associated with running the ADI. It is therefore sceptical.

No trading update was provided but guidance was reaffirmed.

While disappointed that one catalyst for its investment thesis has been removed, the broker believes momentum in Tyro's core business will continue to drive the share price higher.

Outperform rating and $1.85 target price retained

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: $0.76
If TYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.94, suggesting upside of 90.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TYR as Buy (1) -

At Tyro Payments' strategy day, management noted ongoing competitive pressures and structural changes in the payments industry. 

Moreover, UBS was not insipred my management's aim to "maintain" for the company's two largest verticals, Health and Retail, which sounded like an ex-growth admission.

It's also felt an ongoing lack of disclosure around the impact of the Kounta legal case is weighing on the share price.

The broker awaits a trading update at the AGM in around four weeks, and maintains the $1.80 target and Buy recommendation.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: $0.71
If TYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.94, suggesting upside of 90.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates VHT as Buy (1) -

In its fourth consecutive quarter of cash flow positive operations, Volpara Health Technologies has reported $1.2m in cash flow from operations in the September quarter. 

For Bell Potter, a key feature of Volpara Health Technologies's 2023 has been client renewals and upgrades, with a record number choosing to expand and extend contracts. Contracted annual revenue has grown 18%, and average per client revenue 21%, in the year.

The Buy rating and target price of $1.20 are retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.75 Difference: $0.45
If VHT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Sell (5) -

On second examination of Woodside Energy's September-quarter production, which revealed slight "misses" in production and revenues, Citi observes a narrowing of 2023 production guidance towards the midpoint and a cut in capital expenditure guidance.

But Citi expects a downgrade to Scarborough's schedule and guidance in 2024 is likely to be announced with the February result.

Sell rating retained. Target price falls to $32 from $33.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $36.88 Difference: minus $4.88 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.82, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Woodside Energy's September-quarter production was in line with Macquarie's forecasts while sales outpaced.

The broker is now switching its attention to capital expenditure given deferrals from 2023, expecting a maiden capex reveal at the investor day update on November 8.

The broker prefers Santos ((STO)) on valuation.

EPS forecasts ease -1% for 2023 and -7% for 2025.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls -3% to $34 from $36.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $36.88 Difference: minus $2.88 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.82, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WDS as Overweight (1) -

Given recent upgrades to consensus forecasts for Woodside Energy, Morgan Stanley expects a neutral reaction to the company's 3Q operating update. Production was in line with the broker's forecast and a 3% beat against consensus.

FY23 production guidance was narrowed to 183-188mmboe from 180-190mmboe, while capex guidance fell to US$5.7-6.0bn from US$6.0-6.5bn.

Project updates included 90% completion of Sangomar and 46% completion of Scarborough.

Overweight and $41 target retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $36.88 Difference: $4.12
If WDS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.82, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

UBS assesses an in-line 3Q result for Woodside Energy, with weaker realised prices offsetting a beat for LNG production against forecast. Realised prices were down as traded LNG prices were lower than spot LNG prices, explains the analyst.

The new midpoint for the narrowed FY23 guidance range is186mmboe.

The broker notes growing risks to the schedule for Scarborough/Pluto 2, and in turn capex, and suggests pressure on regulatory approvals could suppress further equity sell-downs/LNG sales from the project.

The Neutral rating and $35.40 target are maintained.

Target price is $35.40 Current Price is $36.88 Difference: minus $1.48 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.82, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

Whitehaven Coal has bought BHP's 50% stake in Daunia and Blackwater Mines for US$3.2bn, with contingent payments of US$1.1bn.

The company will pay US$2.1bn once the deal is finalised (some time in the June quarter of 2024) and the final US$1.1bn constituting a deferred consideration over three years.

The company will fund the deal from a mix of cash and cash flow and a US$900m bridging facility (through refinance). Citi says the company observes an opportunity to sell down part of its interest thereafter.

During the term of the bridging facility, Whitehaven Coal advises dividends will be restricted to cash flow from previously acquired assets.

Citi says the purchase needs to compete with the option of buying back stock and is still conducting valuations. Neutral rating and $7.60 target price retained.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: $0.03
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Despite conservative estimates for costs and coal prices, following the acquisition of BHP Group's Blackwater and Duania assets, Morgan Stanley still sees 12-18% upside for shares of Whitehaven Coal.

The broker likes the deal structure and the fair premium paid for the assets, while tranche payments enable ongoing low gearing, which avoids the necessity for an equity raise.

Free cash flows from Whitehaven's other mines will be sufficient to cover the $1.2bn contingent payment to BHP, suggest the analysts. If necessary, capex on Vickery between FY25-27 can be delayed, notes the broker.

The target rises to $8.90 from $7.75. Overweight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: $1.33
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources