Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

With Aristocrat Leisure set to report on its full year this week, Macquarie is anticipating net profits will lift 30% year-on-year to $1,121m. The broker's assumption includes a $61m foreign exchange benefit. 

The broker expects second half performance from land-based operations to be more reflective of normalised conditions, and should provide some insight into normalised margins. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $44.00 are retained.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $37.56 Difference: $6.44
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.53, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ALQ as Neutral (3) -

First half profit of $164.3m for ALS Ltd exceeded the forecasts of Credit Suisse and consensus for $161.3m and $159.5m, respectively.

The broker had previously estimated a FY23 slowdown for the Commodities segment, but now postpones this to the 2H of FY24. While this lowers FY24 EPS estimates, FY25 forecasts rise, as the same duration and recovery profile remain.

Unlike management, the analyst doesn't believe the cyclical effect in the business has been eliminated as yet (via a higher Life Sciences contribution and increased battery minerals exposure).

The Neutral rating is retained, while the target slips to $12.30 from $12.60.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $12.07 Difference: $0.23
If ALQ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.33, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALQ as Outperform (1) -

ALS Ltd's first half net profit is up 29% on the previous comparable period; a beat to its own guidance and Macquarie's assumptions.

The company is targeting full year net profits of $300-320m, with gradual price increase and a focus on margin improvement to offset inflationary impacts in the second half. 

The broker highlights sample flow growth slowed through the half as the company approaches its seasonally weaker period. Macquarie expects sample flows to be flat in the second half.

The Outperform rating and target price of $13.60 are retained.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $12.07 Difference: $1.53
If ALQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.33, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALQ as Add (1) -

First half underlying profit for ALS Ltd was an around 3% beat versus guidance and consensus forecasts, with commodities the standout on higher volumes and pricing.

The 20.3c interim dividend also exceeded Morgans forecast though was unfranked due to lower tax payments.

Management's FY23 profit guidance was in line with Morgans forecast. However, the analyst feels this guidance is conservative and implies a significant margin contraction in Commodities, despite upbeat commentary.

Structural drivers in Life Sciences are also too compelling for the broker to ignore and the Add rating is kept. The target falls to $14.40 from $15.00.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $12.07 Difference: $2.33
If ALQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.33, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALQ as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

First half underlying net profit for ALS Ltd came in at $164m, exceeding management's guidance range set in August for $157-$162m on strong demand for the Commodities segment. A 20.3c interim dividend beat the 16.7c forecast by Ord Minnett.

The analyst notes contract repricing was utilsed to combat inflation, and repricing is likely to continue, while 2H labour availability should also improve.

Management guided for FY23 underlying profit to lift by 17% year-on-year to between $300m-320m, which the broker sees as achievable. The rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold, while the target is increased to $13.20 from $13.00.

Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $12.07 Difference: $1.13
If ALQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.33, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Following the recent retreat in iron ore prices, Credit Suisse lowers its December quarter forecast by -31% to US$90/t and reduces its 2023 and 2024 estimates by -US$5/t to US$115 and US$95/t, respectively.

As China port stocks are at record lows, the broker anticipates iron ore prices will improve from December.

The target for BHP Group falls to $39 from $40 on lower iron ore prices, partially offset by currency. The Neutral rating is unchanged.

Rio Tinto is preferred by Credit Suisse in the mid-term for a number of reasons including aluminium exposure and better growth prospects. 

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $44.01 Difference: minus $5.01 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $41.95, suggesting downside of -4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Outperform (1) -

Having returned from a site trip, Macquarie analysts report Boss Energy continues to make solid progress in restarting production at its Honeymoon Uranium Project, some 75km north of Broken Hill, in South Australia.

The project remains on track for first production in the final quarter of next year. In addition, points out the broker, as at end of 1QFY23 Boss Energy had a cash position of $127.8m and held 1.25mlb of U3O8 inventory worth $103.8m.

The Outperform rating and target price of $3.30 are retained.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.7
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BPT as Add (1) -

Should a shareholder vote be successful next February, Beach Energy will acquire Warrego Energy ((WGO)) for -$240m in cash.

Beach Energy intends to sell-off Warrego's  Spanish assets and retain the Perth Basin gas assets to complement Beach's existing assets in the Perth Basin.

The broker lifts its long-term forecasts for production from the Perth Basin as well as realised prices, given the potential to export via underutilised LNG processing facilities.

After also incorporating the acquisition into forecasts's the broker's target rises to $1.97 from $1.69. Add.

Target price is $1.97 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: $0.18
If BPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Accumulate (2) -

Beach Energy is now in a potential bidding war, according to Ord Minnett, with joint venture partner (on the West Errugulla project) Strike Energy ((STX)), after launching a bid to acquire Warrego Energy ((WGO)) for around -$240m.

Warrego’s main asset is its 50% non-operating interest in the West Errugulla project. Even if Beach Energy is successful, the analyst points out the company will have to work with Strike on development of the project, and may ultimately need to acquire Strike as well.

The Accumulate rating and $1.90 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: $0.11
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Citi, on early assessment, comments CommBank released a strong Q1 performance. Cash earnings of $2.5bn were some 5% ahead of the broker's estimate, as well as vis a vis market consensus.

Net Interest Margin of 2.1% (estimated) was equally better-than-forecast. Costs were worse than anticipated.

The Sell rating and target price of $85.50 are retained, with Citi anticipating consensus upgrades will be forthcoming post today's result.

Target price is $85.50 Current Price is $105.10 Difference: minus $19.6 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $93.91, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Neutral (3) -

In an initial response to today's Q1 release, UBS saw strong trends for net interest income (NII) as well as higher-than-expected guidance for credit impairments and costs.

On UBS's calculations (as CBA's Q1 doesn't include all details) the bank's net interest margin (NIM) might have improved by more than 25bp and this has the broker excited. It's much better than for any of the other majors in Australia.

Neutral Rating. Target $100.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $105.10 Difference: minus $5.1 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $93.91, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie continues to see its already downgraded acquisition assumptions as achievable for Charter Hall. The broker assumes reduced net additions of $6-7bn in FY23-24, a result of softer equity flows, compared to an average of $8bn over FY20-FY22. 

The REIT has added $33bn in assets over the past five years, through raising $18bn in equity with 30% leverage and deploying an additional $7bn in debt funding.

The broker expects asset values to decline ahead, impacting on Charter Hall's ability to leverage rising asset values to fund acquisitions. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $14.63 are retained.

Target price is $14.63 Current Price is $13.55 Difference: $1.08
If CHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.80, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CXO as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Core Lithium has announced the resignation of its CFO, and the company is undergoing the search for a replacement. This follows the exit of the Managing Director and CEO in October and of the COO in early 2022, making for high executive turnover in recent months. 

Couple with weather impacts, senior management changes increase risk of project delays at Finniss, according to Macquarie. While the company continues to anticipate first spodumene production in the second half of FY23, Macquarie now assumes first production in FY24. 

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target price decreases to $1.80 from $1.90.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates DRR as Outperform (1) -

Following the recent retreat in iron ore prices, Credit Suisse lowers its December quarter forecast by -31% to US$90/t and reduces its 2023 and 2024 estimates by -US$5/t to US$115 and US$95/t, respectively.

As China port stocks are at record lows, the broker anticipates iron ore prices will improve from December.

Separately, the 1Q for Deterra Royalties exceeded Credit Suisse's expectations which helps to offset the fall in the broker's iron ore price forecasts.

The target falls to $4.70 from $4.90. Outperform.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $0.2
If DRR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.69, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ELD as Outperform (1) -

While Elders delivered a record earnings result in FY22, Macquarie expects the company can match its performance in the coming year. The broker expects acquisitive and organic growth could offset market risk ahead, and highlights strong agricultural conditions expected to continue into the new year. 

The company reported full year earnings growth of 39% year-on-year to $232m, a beat to Macquarie's assumptions. The broker remains conservative at this point, forecasting earnings of $218m for the coming year.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $14.35 from $16.40.

Target price is $14.35 Current Price is $10.21 Difference: $4.14
If ELD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.60, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ELD as Hold (3) -

Morgans assesses a strong FY22 earnings result for Elders though notes cashflow was well below expectations. It's felt the result was overshadowed by the ceo resignation announcement.

Given such a strong FY22, the analyst feels it will be difficult for management to achieve earnings growth in FY23 (as targeted). It's felt current ideal conditions will likely normalise. As a result of this view, the broker's Hold rating is retained.

The target falls to $11.46 from $14.75 after Morgans downgrades profit forecasts on higher higher interest, minorities and tax.

Target price is $11.46 Current Price is $10.21 Difference: $1.25
If ELD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.60, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FLT as Neutral (3) -

Citi has been left wanting by Flight Centre Travel's first half guidance, with the company targeting earnings of $70-90m, a miss to consensus assumptions of $97m. The broker assumes a 65% second half weighting to full year results, implying earnings of $229m over the year. 

The broker finds the underlying operational performance positive, with volumes back to pre-covid levels and revenue at 95%. An expected -$20m Other loss drags on results. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $16.60 are retained. 

Target price is $16.60 Current Price is $16.37 Difference: $0.23
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.26, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FLT as Underperform (5) -

Mangement at Flight Centre Travel has provided FY23 earnings (EBITDA) guidance -20% below the consensus forecast.

Credit Suisse maintains its Underperform rating and lowers its target to $13.10 from $13.50, the majority of the change driven by utilising a 3.5% risk free rate, up from 3%.

The broker sees valuation downside from elevated earnings uncertainty and rising interest rates.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $16.37 Difference: minus $3.27 (current price is over target).
If FLT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.26, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FLT as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett materially downgrades FY23 EPS forecasts for Flight Centre Travel as 1H earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $70-90m was well below expectations. FY24 estimates are also downgraded though FY25 forecasts are left unchanged.

The broker downgrades its rating to Lighten from Hold and lowers its target to $13.71 from $14.26.

The analyst had felt a downgrade to guidance was on the cards and points out that despite the increasing demand for bricks and mortar travel advice, the Flight Centre Travel network is now around -50% smaller than pre-pandemic.

Target price is $13.71 Current Price is $16.37 Difference: minus $2.66 (current price is over target).
If FLT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.26, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FLT as Neutral (3) -

In the four months to October, Flight Centre's total transaction value rose 246% on a year ago and revenue 248%. Revenue margins are expected to increase as conditions improve, but still to below pre-covid highs.

UBS' analysis suggests the recovery momentum within leisure TTV looks to have slowed somewhat versus market expectations in the first four months. This has been further exacerbated by lower commissions and higher costs.

Momentum within corporate remains strong but the update puts a much larger skew on second half in order to meet market expectations, UBS suggests. Neutral retained, target falls to $17.70 from $18.30.

Target price is $17.70 Current Price is $16.37 Difference: $1.33
If FLT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.26, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Following the recent retreat in iron ore prices, Credit Suisse lowers its December quarter forecast by -31% to US$90/t and reduces its 2023 and 2024 estimates by -US$5/t to US$115 and US$95/t, respectively.

As China port stocks are at record lows, the broker anticipates iron ore prices will improve from December.

The target for Fortescue Metals falls to $15.30 from $15.70. The analyst raises the company's FY23 price realisation rate to around 86% from 82%, which partially offsets the lower iron ore forecasts. Rio Tinto is the preferred exposure in the space.

Target price is $15.30 Current Price is $19.55 Difference: minus $4.25 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.25, suggesting downside of -21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HAS as Outperform (1) -

Having revised the demand and supply outlook for rare earths and adjusting its commodity pricing outlook, Macquarie has lowered its earnings forecast for Hastings Technology Metals. The broker expects rare earths to trade below US$100 per tonne over the next six months, and peak at US$130 per tonne in late 2024. 

Macquarie downgrades its earnings forecasts by -145%, -96%, -58% and -18% through to FY26. The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.80 from $5.70.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $1.98
If HAS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley feels September quarter results for Allianz Group, showing increased pricing, provides a useful cross-read on margins (supportive) for both Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group. 

The broker retains its Underweight rating and $4.20 target for Insurance Australia Group. Industry View: In-Line. 

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.17, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

Upon initial assessment, Citi believes today's release of FY22 financials by Incitec Pivot revealed an in-line performance with the company committing to a $400m share buyback.

Unsolicited approaches have been received for the Waggaman plant and the company has now put the asset up for review. This will delay the de-merger process by up to 12 months.

Citi explains underlying EBIT came out some -3% below its forecast, but market consensus has been beaten by 3%. Target price $3.70. Neutral.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.74 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LM8 as Outperform (1) -

Recent drilling programs at Lunnon Metals' Warren site revealed intercepts outside current resource boundaries, suggesting potential for resource upside. At 211,000 tonnes the project is Lunnon Metals' smallest deposit, but Macquarie expects drilling could provide 50% upside to the current resource.

The broker expects resource updates for Warren and Baker late in the fourth quarter of 2022. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $1.20 are retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.41
If LM8 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Having revised the demand and supply outlook for rare earths and adjusting its commodity pricing outlook, Macquarie has lowered its earnings forecast for Lynas Rare Earths. The broker expects rare earths to trade below US$100 per tonne over the next six months, and peak at US$130 per tonne in late 2024. 

Macquarie downgrades its earnings forecasts by -27%, -11%, -7% and -4% through to FY26. The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target price decreases to $9.10 from $9.50.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $9.15 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.00, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett upgrades its rating for Newcrest Mining to Accumulate from Hold and raises its target to $22 from $19 after marking-to-market gold and silver prices. Also, no major project capex increases are anticipated until next year.

Based on a recent bid for a Canadian precious metals producer, the analyst feels M&A activity may provide a general gold sector re-rate.

It's also believed the market was awaiting a lower inflation signal (before becoming more positive), as occurred via US CPI data in November. 

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $19.51 Difference: $2.49
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.57, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NEA as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights several positive takeaways from an update by Nearmap on legal proceedings and operating metrics, which are supportive of the existing $2.10 takeover offer.

The US Patent Trial and Appeals Board has ruled that Nearmap "has demonstrated a reasonable likelihood of success in proving that at least one challenged claim in each EagleView patent is unpatentable".

Elsewhere, management guided to $195-208m for annual contract value (ACV) for FY23 versus the consensus expectation for $201.8m, despite some potential churn events, explains the broker.

In good news on cash burn, the closing FY23 cash balance guidance is for $71-76m versus $66-71m previously.

Overweight and $1.80 target retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If NEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NHC as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse lowers its thermal coal price forecasts for the December quarter to US$380/t from US$450/t as spot NEWC prices have cooled to around US$310/t, though upgrades the March forecast to US$420/t from US$400/t.

The broker believes the 2023 outlook remains constructive as Australian supply is being pressured by inclement weather, and South African sales are constrained by logistics.

Credit Suisse retains its Outperform rating and $7.80 target for New Hope. Whitehaven Coal is narrowly preferred over New Hope due to superior diversification and stronger buyback support for its shares over the next 12 months.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $5.25 Difference: $2.55
If NHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.60, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has found News Corp's first quarter result to be softer than anticipated, largely on the -11% year-on-year revenue decline from the company's Book segment. 

The company suggested Amazon's inventory reset and rightsizing of its warehouse footprint resulted in lower physical book sales, and this is expected to persist through the second quarter. 

Macquarie finds the company to offer limited earnings upside. The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $26.00 from $25.00.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $27.00 Difference: minus $1 (current price is over target).
If NWS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.37, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OZL as No Rating (-1) -

An update on OZ Minerals' West Musgrave mixed hydroxide precipitate study has proved flowsheet technology, highlighting conventional operations and established technology. 

Macquarie highlights mixed hydroxide precipitate is a nickel product typically further processed into nickel sulphate for use in lithium ion batteries. The broker expects OZ Minerals can benefit from an increased focus on critical minerals supply. 

A feasibility study decision is pending, which OZ Minerals has indicated will be evaluated in partnership with its strategic partner. Macquarie is on research restrictions. 

Current Price is $26.56. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $25.88, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRN as Outperform (1) -

Following a first quarter that reiterated a strong outlook for the remainder of the year, Perenti lifts its full year revenue and earnings guidance. Revenue increases to $2.6-2.7bn, from $2.4-2.5bn, and earnings to 215-230m, from $185-205m. 

Macquarie attributes the increase to improving operational and commercial conditions, as well as favourable movements in the Australian and US dollar exchange rates. The broker's earnings per share assumptions lift 23% for FY23, and 5-6% from FY24. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.30 from $1.00.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: $0.21
If PRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has used market updates by 24 international insurers to get a feel for what's happening at QBE Insurance. Observation number one: all insurers are using higher interest rates as a bonus for themselves; no pass-through for clients.

Climate-related losses dominated the third quarter, in particular Hurricane Ian, Typhoon Nanmadol and convective storms with hailstorms in France.

Macquarie has made no changes but observes QBE shares are trading at a discount to international peers, which is used as justification for the Outperform rating.

Price target is $14.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $12.05 Difference: $1.95
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.65, suggesting upside of 27.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIC as Buy (1) -

Ridley Corp has reaffirmed its outlook for first half earnings to be up year on year and UBS forecasts 9% growth. The Packaged Ingredients business remains strong but Bulk Stockfeeds are being impacted by the weather.

UBS has thus adjusted the divisional composition of its forecasts but there is little net change. Ridley remains the broker's top pick in the ag space.

Target rises to $2.35 from $2.25, Buy retained.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.25
If RIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Following the recent retreat in iron ore prices, Credit Suisse lowers its December quarter forecast by -31% to US$90/t and reduces its 2023 and 2024 estimates by -US$5/t to US$115 and US$95/t, respectively.

As China port stocks are at record lows, the broker anticipates iron ore prices will improve from December.

The target for Rio Tinto falls to $110 from $115 on lower iron ore prices, partially offset by currency. The Outperform rating is unchanged.

Credit Suisse prefers Rio Tinto over BHP Group in the mid-term for a number of reasons including aluminium exposure and better growth prospects. 

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $106.00 Difference: $4
If RIO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.57, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Ramelius Resources updated its three-year outlook guidance and Macquarie saw nothing untoward or different from its own projections; "broadly in line", but with FY25 much stronger than forecast.

The broker highlights Penny will be key for improved production and all-in sustainable cost (AISC) over the period.

Also: new ore sources will be required to maintain production rates beyond FY25. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform as the price target lifts by 13% to 90c.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.03
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.16, suggesting upside of 33.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

Santos has unveiled a new strategy at its recent investor day, and Citi expects the company's focus on growing around clean energy solutions will elicit a positive response.

Softer Western Australia gas volumes drove full year production guidance below market expectations.

Having toured the company's Moomba project, Citi sees potential for the site to become a significant decarbonisation hub and a way for Santos to unlock value. The company anticipates more than 30m of carbon injection capacity by 2030. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $10.00 from $10.70.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $7.45 Difference: $2.55
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.24, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley feels September quarter results for Allianz Group, showing increased pricing, provides a useful cross-read on margins (supportive) for both Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group. 

The broker retains its Equal-weight rating and $11.30 target for Suncorp Group. Industry View: In-Line. 

Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $11.86 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.49, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse lowers its thermal coal price forecasts for the December quarter to US$380/t from US$450/t as spot NEWC prices have cooled to around US$310/t, though upgrades the March forecast to US$420/t from US$400/t.

The broker believes the 2023 outlook remains constructive as Australian supply is being pressured by inclement weather, and South African sales are constrained by logistics.

Credit Suisse retains its Outperform rating and $12 target for Whitehaven Coal. The company is narrowly preferred over New Hope due to superior diversification and stronger buyback support for its shares over the next 12 months.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $8.30 Difference: $3.7
If WHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.98, suggesting upside of 33.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources