Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates 29M as Neutral (3) -

29Metals produced -11% less copper in the March Q than Macquarie's estimate driven by soft production at Golden Grove, due to ventilation upgrades and longer-than-expected mill maintenance. 2023 guidance is nevertheless maintained.

Positively, operating costs at both sites were lower than the broker had anticipated and the miner’s closing cash balance was better than expected. Additionally, 29Metals received regulatory approvals for tailings capacity increases at Golden Grove, providing certainty to the long-term mine plan.

Neutral and $1.20 target retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.05
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.49, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates A1M as Buy (1) -

The 3Q for AIC Mines was weaker than Ord Minnett anticipated as planned maintenance and unplanned events like weather and power outages weighed. These disruptions resulted in ten days of lost production.

Management lowered FY23 copper production guidance by -17% to around 10.4kt, though the broker feels the market anticipated this outcome or is prepared to overlook the near-term.

The target falls to 65c from 70c and the Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.235
If A1M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates A1M as Buy (1) -

March quarter production was weaker than Shaw and Partners expected, largely stemming from unplanned outages. FY23 copper production guidance has been lowered to 10,100t and as a result the broker reduces forecasts.

On the positive side, the mine was positive in terms of cash flow for the quarter. Production from Macy North commenced in March and in future the business will benefit from this high-grade, shallow source of production close to the mill.

The broker retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $0.60 from $0.70.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.185
If A1M meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ABC as Sell (5) -

Adbri is estimating the cost to complete its Kwinana Upgrade project in WA will now be, at the midpoint of the range, around double the original estimate, Citi notes.

Yet Interestingly, despite the higher cash outflow and discount rate, management has flagged net present value will remain positive, implying the expectation of increased profitability since feasibility work.

But Citi would expect an internal rate of return less than Adbri's cost of capital, and likely stress to an already stretched balance sheet.

Sell and $1.50 target retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: minus $0.035 (current price is over target).
If ABC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.69, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ABC as Neutral (3) -

Adbri now estimates the Kwinana upgrade to cost -$385-420m versus -$290m previously. This is a disappointing development as it is above Macquarie's recent upwardly revised estimate of -$325m.

On the broker's estimates, the group will remain above the upper bound of its net debt/earnings range until after FY25, peaking at 2.9x in 2H23.

Industry feedback suggests the pricing environment is getting better. However, residential markets are coming off, which will put pressure on Adbri volumes (34% of FY22 revenues), Macquarie notes.

Target falls to $1.65 from $1.90, Neutral retained.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.115
If ABC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.69, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ABC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley was disappointed with the additional cost increases sustained by Adbri in the March quarter that meant overall capital expenditure estimates were double initial expectations.

The broker suspects an attractive return is unlikely as costs blow out at Kwinana, as even though the company reiterated the project will be NPV positive it is likely to be below the initial 15% estimate.

Equal-Weight retained. Target is $1.80. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.265
If ABC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.69, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGY as Outperform (1) -

Argosy Minerals is progressing with its Rincon lithium pilot project, Macquarie notes, with works largely complete. The ramp-up to the 2.0ktpa lithium carbonate production rate is expected to take less than six months with a steady state run-rate forecast to be achieved in the Sep Q.

Securing the outstanding Argentinian government approvals to progress with the 10ktpa full-scale development of Rincon presents a material catalyst for Argosy.

Outperform and 80c target retained.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.41
If AGY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 105% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIA as Outperform (1) -

Public consultation has indicated majority support for the proposed sale of all or some of Auckland Council's 18% in Auckland International Airport. The Mayor has a strong preference for a full sale, Macquarie reports.

Decision making will culminate with the final mayoral proposal on May 31, with all budget decisions made on June 8th and adopted on June 29th.

Outperform and NZ$9.23 target retained.

Current Price is $8.20. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting downside of -13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIZ as Outperform (1) -

Air New Zealand has upgraded FY23 profit guidance by 9% at midpoint. March operating stats show a continuation of strong demand, load factors and pricing, Macquarie notes.

Group capacity in March was down -21% on pre-covid, while the company notes its second half capacity outlook remains largely unchanged, with expectation to fly 95% of pre-covid domestic and 80% of international.

The upgrade to earnings shows a continuation of strong demand and supports resumption of dividends in the second half, the broker suggests. Ultimately earnings will need to normalise in FY24/25 as supply/demand rebalances.

Outperform and NZ90c target retained.

Current Price is $0.72. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AIZ as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes exceptional near-term profitability following a review of the 3Q trading update by Air New Zealand. 

Management upgraded FY23 underlying profit by around 9% due to ongoing strong demand and a moderation in jet fuel prices.

The broker raises its FY23 profit forecasts and makes only minor adjustments to longer-term estimates. The target rises to 90c from 88c. Accumulate.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.185
If AIZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -

Ampol's March quarter was broadly in line with Macquarie's estimates, and the domestic volume recovery continues.

With Fuels & Infrastructure ex-Lytton and convenience performing well, the June quarter will hinge on refining, the broker suggests. Completion of FCCU repairs and China export volumes are key.

Macquarie remains attracted to Ampol's -34% discount to the ASX Industrials given corporate appeal and a 7.6% dividend yield on 2024 forecasts, with potential for further special dividends.

Outperform and $39.45 target retained.

Target price is $39.45 Current Price is $31.03 Difference: $8.42
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.05, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett makes no change to its $34.50 target for Ampol following in-line 1Q results. Sales volumes increased 50% against the previous corresponding period and underlying volume trends were positive.

Volume growth reflects strength across petrol, diesel and jet with increased mobility after covid lockdowns, explains the broker. Convenience volume improvement was also accompanied by stronger fuel margins.

The Accumulate rating is unchanged.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $31.03 Difference: $3.47
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.05, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALD as Buy (1) -

The March quarter trading update from Ampol beat UBS estimates for fuel volumes across all segments although refining margins missed. The miss to refining came from purchases of crude at a premium to Asia, as discounted Russian product continues to land in Asia.

Fuel volume growth was primarily driven by jet fuel and spot sales within the international segment. The FCCU unit at Lytton is expected to return to service in early May after an unplanned outage. UBS retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $36.10 from $37.00.

Target price is $36.10 Current Price is $31.03 Difference: $5.07
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.05, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALD as Buy (1) -

The March quarter trading update from Ampol beat UBS estimates for fuel volumes across all segments although refining margins missed. The miss to refining came from purchases of crude at a premium to Asia, as discounted Russian product continues to land in Asia.

Fuel volume growth was primarily driven by jet fuel and spot sales within the international segment. The FCCU unit at Lytton is expected to return to service in early May after an unplanned outage. UBS retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $36.10 from $37.00.

Target price is $36.10 Current Price is $31.03 Difference: $5.07
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.05, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APM as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett upgrades its rating for APM Human Services International on valuation after a steady recent share price decline.

The broker leaves its forecasts unchanged and retains its $2.80 target price.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.84 Difference: $0.96
If APM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting upside of 67.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ART as Add (1) -

Following a 3Q trading update, Morgans assesses a resilient performance by Airtasker (given the macro backdrop) though core gross marketplace volume (GMV) was weaker than expected.

Management announced a cost-out program which includes a -20% reduction in headcount. The company will also exit non-core businesses acquired as part of the OneFlare transaction.

The broker conservatively lowers its revenue assumptions for FY23-25 due to current economic conditions. The target falls to 60c from 80c partly due to a lowering of the multiple used, due to the ongoing de-rating of peers and the sector. Add.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.385
If ART meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 179% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.45, suggesting upside of 104.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ARX as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter maintains its Buy rating and $1.45 target following 4Q results by Aroa Biosurgery.

The broker highlights a strong cash balance of NZ$44.7m with no debt as at the end of the quarter and notes growth over FY23 has been driven by significant acceleration in Myriad sales and OviTex revenues through Tela Bio.

The analyst expects sales efficiency and account penetration to increase as the increased sales team matures.

The FY23 audited financial results will be released on May 30.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.395
If ARX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AZY as Buy (1) -

Antipa Minerals has significantly increased the Minyari Dome project resource. Two new discoveries were made by phase 2 drilling in the 2022 program. A new exploration program will comprise up to 12,000m of drilling from May onwards.

Shaw and Partners notes the share prices of most emerging gold companies have been weak over the past year but the second half of 2023 appears to be becoming more constructive for the sector. Buy rating and 6c target maintained.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.04
If AZY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 200% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates B4P as Buy (1) -

Beforepay Group posted a strong March quarter update with revenue rising 105%, to $8.3m, and well above forecasts. Pay Advances jumped 84%, again well ahead of expectations.

Shaw and Partners assesses all metrics are trending in the right direction and retains a Buy rating with a $1 target.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.42
If B4P meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BBT as Add (1) -

While BlueBet Holdings increased its active customer base in the 3Q by 27% and took further market share, Morgans increases its FY23 earnings (EBITDA) loss estimate on lower turnover forecasts.

The broker's loss forecast is also increased for FY24 as the investment in the US is expected to continue and accelerate. Because of encouraging signals from the US, the 90c target price is maintained.

Morgans believes underlying profitability has likely improved from the 2Q of FY23 as a result of falling marketing costs and a return of the net win margin back above 10%. Add.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.578
If BBT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 180% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BBT as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights a rebound for BlueBet Holdings' margins in the 3Q after an elevated promotional spend in the 2Q. A return of the net win margin to 10.1%, following a fall to 9.4% in the December quarter was in line with the analyst's expectation. 

Customer additions were 2% better than the broker's forecast due to an efficient spend on marketing.

The analyst expects technology spending will reduce once the BlueBet Global Platform (BGP) is completed by the end of FY23, which will (in part) support the company's Sportsbook-as-a-Solution (SaaS) strategy.

The Buy rating and 80c target price are retained.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.478
If BBT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 148% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BKL as Hold (3) -

As Blackmores was already trading on a high multiple, despite earnings uncertainty, Morgans welcomes the $95/share takeover offer by Tokyo-based Kirin.

The offer price is at a 23.7% premium to the company's last closing share price.

Both the board and major shareholder Marcus Blackmore will support the takeover and shareholders get to vote in late July.

The broker raises its target to $95 from $72 to align with the takeover offer.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $94.26 Difference: $0.74
If BKL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $88.56, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BKL as Hold (3) -

In the absence of an alternative, Ord Minnett believes the $95/share bid by Kirin for Blackmores is in the best interests of shareholders.

The broker assumes the takeover will be successful and raises its target to $95 from $80, and maintains its Hold rating.

If the takeover scheme becomes effective, the analyst highlights Australian tax residents will receive an extra $1.43/share benefit (as a sweetener). This will be in the form of franking credits as Blackmores intends to pay a fully franked special dividend of $3.34/share.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $94.26 Difference: $0.74
If BKL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $88.56, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BKW as Buy (1) -

Citi likes Brickworks’ exposure to industrial property (50% of valuation), seeing tailwinds from record rent growth which will be realised over the future years in earnings, and value upside from converting land held at historical cost into industrial property.

The investment in investment company Soul Pattinson ((SOL)) offers the prospect of a bounce-back in equity valuations after a down-year last year.

The only stick in the mud is brick making, but that's now less than 10% of Citi's valuation. The stock is now trading lower than its historical PE discount, hence the broker reiterates Buy. Target rises to $28.50 from $28.00.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $24.89 Difference: $3.61
If BKW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.74, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BMT as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners reiterates a Buy rating and $0.70 target for Beamtree Holdings. In FY23 to date organic revenue growth is 24% compared with cost growth of around 10%.

The outlook is robust amid evidence of substantial operational success, particularly across international markets. The broker is pleased the company is delivering on the catalysts outlined late last year while continuing to manage the cost base and demonstrate leverage.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.38
If BMT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 119% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates C79 as Buy (1) -

The March quarter report demonstrated the Chrysos operating capabilities and "solid execution", Shaw and Partners asserts. Management is confident it can deploy 18 units next year while FY23 prospectus forecasts are on track.

The broker reiterates a Buy rating and $5.70 target believing the stock is a compelling market penetration story that is rapidly de-risking longer-term potential.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $1.66
If C79 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CIA as Buy (1) -

While Champion Iron's March quarter production was up strongly year on year, with the Phase II ramp-up ongoing, it was lower than expected, Citi notes, given the ramp-up was impacted by delays in delivery and commissioning of mining equipment and locos, as earlier flagged.

FY22 financials (due May 31) will focus on price realisations and the ramp-up schedule from here. For now, Buy and $8.10 target retained.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $6.39 Difference: $1.71
If CIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIA as Outperform (1) -

Champion Iron's production and shipments have increased year on year on the ramp-up of Bloom Lake phase 2, however, cash costs remain elevated, Macquarie notes.

The March Q result was largely in line with the broker's expectations and stronger quarter on quarter as the ramp-up of Bloom Lake continues.

Macquarie notes there remains organic growth upside given the large resource base, and the recent direct reduction pellet feed study highlights the strategy to target higher-quality product.

Outperform and $7.80 target retained.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $6.39 Difference: $1.41
If CIA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Neutral (3) -

Capricorn Metals' (pre-released) March Q and costs were in line with Macquarie while gold sales were a 10% beat. Capricorn has maintained FY23 production and cost guidance with the company comfortably on track.

The timing of approvals for Mt Gibson is important, the broker notes. The company plans to submit applications by June 2023 targeting a first half FY25 construction start.

Neutral and $4.80 target retained.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.59 Difference: $0.21
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DCN as Neutral (3) -

Dacian Gold’s March Q production was -7% lower than Macquarie expected while the cash balance was in line.

As planned, Dacian put Mt Morgans into care & maintenance following a decision to focus on exploration and pursue a strategy to investigate a sustainable re-start of operations.

The offer for the company from Genesis Minerals ((GMD)) closed in February, Macquarie notes, with Genesis now controlling over 80% of Dacian’s shares.

Neutral and 8c target retained.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: minus $0.002 (current price is over target).
If DCN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DOW as Neutral (3) -

Downer EDI has re-affirmed its FY23 profit guidance and notes March Q trading conditions have been in line with expectations. Macquarie is pleased there was no further negative news albeit it’s only two months since the first half result.

The largest quarter of year (June) is still to come, the broker notes, and second half cash flow is key given the first’s poor cash conversion. It’s now about execution of the company's turnaround strategy but it’s still early days in this regard.

Downer needs to hit its FY23 guidance range to re-build confidence after successive downgrades, Macquarie warns.

Target rises to $3.30 from $3.25, Neutral retained.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DOW as Neutral (3) -

Downer EDI's new executive team has outlined the strategy to reset the operating model and cost base. Initiatives underpin the restoration of a FY25 EBITA margin target to "more than 4.5%", which compares with pre-pandemic levels of 4.3%.

UBS suspects the market will "wait-and-see" before pricing in this target. A full recovery in margin could present more than 20% upside to earnings per share, the broker adds.

Reduced earnings volatility is a key factor in re-rating the stock and the broker retains a Neutral rating. Target is raised to $3.60 from $3.30. Downer has reiterated net profit guidance for FY23 of $170-190m.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.15
If DOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EGL as Buy (1) -

Environmental Group has acquired specialist air pollution control company Airtight for -$7m upfront and a contingent payment of up to -$5m, based on Airtight’s FY24 earnings growth.

The company has successfully completed an $8m institutional placement at 20cps to help fund the transaction. A share purchase plan of $1m is also in train.

Bell Potter notes the company has estimated Airtight to be around 15% EPS accretive for FY24, which suggests management
is expecting FY24 earnings (excl. Airtight) in excess of the broker's forecast.

The target rises to 31c from 30c. Buy.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.105
If EGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EMV as Speculative Buy (1) -

Following a 3Q update by EMVision Medical Devices, Bell Potter assesses 18 months runway for product and clinical development activities based on the current cash balance and additional grant funding.

After important data from Stage 1 via 30 healthy volunteers, Stage 2 of the Pre-Validation Phase is expected to commence in May 2023. Stage 2 will provide imaging data for strokes (haemorrhagic, ischaemic) compared with stroke mimics (eg brain tumours, migrains)

The Speculative Buy rating and $2.30 target are retained.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.715
If EMV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FDV as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights a maiden cash flow positive quarter, in the 1Q, for Frontier Digital Ventures and a net cash balance of $26.8m.

The broker likes management's discipline in optimising costs relative to market conditions and the potential operating leverage within its strategy. This was demonstrated by an improvement in portfolio earnings (quarter-on-quarter) despite a fall in portfolio revenue.

The Pakistan business, Zameen, has also proactively managed costs in line with local economic conditions, notes the analyst.

The Speculative Buy rating and $1.05 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.525
If FDV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FDV as Add (1) -

Morgans adopts more conservative revenue growth assumptions following a 1Q trading update by Frontier Digital Ventures, which revealed weakness in the key Zameen business in Pakistan.

Management atrributed weakness at Zameen to local economic challenges and a significant rise in the AUD:PKR exhange rate.

The broker also incorporates the recent capital raising into its forecasts and the target falls to 94c from $1.16. The Add rating is maintained due to the company's long-term growth profile and earnings potential.

Target price is $0.94 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.415
If FDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HLO as Add (1) -

Third quarter results for Helloworld Travel materially beat Morgans forecast and FY23 earnings (EBITDA) guidance was upgraded by around 33%. It's felt the new guidance may prove to be conservative.

The analyst suggests the result indicates travel demand in A&NZ continues to recover strongly. It's noted the earnings margin of 30.4% is now well ahead of pre-covid levels, which reflects the efficiency derived from new technology, structural cost-out and more employee annual leave.

The broker believes the company is still materially undervalued (despite a strong recent share price) and maintains its Add rating. The target rises to $3.46 from $3.14.

Target price is $3.46 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.51
If HLO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.16, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HLO as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett highlights a 3Q revenue margin of 7.7% and an earnings (EBITDA) margin of 30.4%, which are the highest achieved by Helloworld Travel, to the best of the broker's knowledge.

What's more, the earnings margin is the highest the analyst has seen globally for a mainly business-to-consumer bricks and mortar travel agency business.

Management has, again, upgraded FY23 earnings guidance to $38-42m from $28-32m.

Ord Minnett raises its target to $2.62 from $2.08 and lowers its rating to Lighten from Hold after a 58% share price rally in the last three months.

Target price is $2.62 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If HLO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.16, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HLO as Buy (1) -

Helloworld Travel has provided its second upgrade to guidance. This is "massive" in Shaw and Partners' view, being a 31-36% increase in FY23 underlying EBITDA to $38-42m.

Moreover, the broker asserts there is potential for a third upgrade, given travel is rapidly expanding month on month. Travel restrictions have been removed across most destinations and inbound arrivals to Australasia continue to improve. There is also a move towards longer trips and longer lead times to overcome supply constraints.

The broker retains a Buy rating, considers the stock cheap, and raises the target to $3.40 from $3.00.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.45
If HLO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.16, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HMC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has returned from restriction on HMC Capital with an Outperform rating and $5.20 target following the acquisition of the $1.2bn Healthscope portfolio and associated listed equity raisings.

With structure of the real estate platform likely formed, the broker expects HMC to diversify its exposures as it looks to become a broader alternative fund manager.

The ability to unlock the acquisition highlights an advantage of the platform, Macquarie suggests, and should it be successful in introducing a capital partner into the unlisted healthcare fund, the transaction should provide further evidence of HMC’s ability to grow funds under management.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $3.89 Difference: $1.31
If HMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IEL as Outperform (1) -

Australian student visa volumes rose 88% year on year in the March quarter, Macquarie notes, with Chinese students returning a positive highlight.

IDP Education is losing English Language Test market share to Pearson PTE, hence the broker reduces forecasts for IELTS volumes.

The long-term thesis focused around market share gains in student placement across multiple destinations. The key risk is IELTS market share, Macquarie suggests.

Target falls to $34 from $36, Outperform retained.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $28.34 Difference: $5.66
If IEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.68, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JRV as Neutral (3) -

Jervois Global had a weak quarter as earnings at Jervois Finland of -US$10.4m compared to Macquarie's estimated US$0.5m.

During the quarter, Idaho Cobalt Operation construction was suspended and SMP refinery refurbishment was scaled back while a debt funding solution is investigated.

Positively, negative margins are expected to turn positive from April at Jervois Finland, the broker notes and the miner has commenced a divestment process for non-core asset Nico Young.

Neutral and 9c target retained.

Target price is $0.09 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If JRV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Karoon Energy posted a March quarter production outcome that was -7% below Macquarie's expectations while revenue was -20% below. FY23 guidance has also been downgraded because of the shut-in of production at Bauna and Patola.

The downgrade highlights the single asset risk Macquarie asserts, reinforcing a need to bring a second asset into the portfolio.

Besides the shutdown, operating performance and cost discipline were "excellent", in the broker's view. Macquarie reduces FY23 estimates for earnings per share by -36% and lowers the target to $3.05 from $3.15. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.9
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.97, suggesting upside of 38.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Overweight (1) -

March quarter production was down -5% quarter on quarter, albeit up 89% on the prior corresponding quarter, owing to the unplanned outage of the Bauna FPSO, with a re-start targeted for mid May.

Sales revenue was down -9%, quarter on quarter and up 54% versus the prior March quarter. The company has noted the review of potential acquisitions in Brazil and North America is ongoing. A revised resources and development concept for the Neon field is targeted for March 2024.

Morgan Stanley's Overweight rating is maintained. Target is $2.88. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $2.88 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.73
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.97, suggesting upside of 38.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

Morgans explains Karoon Energy produced an in-line 3Q result though lowered FY23 production guidance to 7.0-7.7mmbbl from 7.5-9.0mmbbl, following the Bauna shut-in for maintenance. Production is expected to resume during May.

Unit production costs were also raised to to US$15-$17/bbl from US$13-$17/bbl, while capex guidance for both the Bauna intervention and Patola program were cut.

The broker lowers its target to $3.65 from $3.80. Add.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $1.5
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.97, suggesting upside of 38.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates KAR as Hold (3) -

While Karoon Energy's 3Q production fell short of Ord Minnett's expectation, due to the Bauna oil field being shut in March, the broker sees no longer-term implications and retains its $2.30 target.

Management lowered FY23 production guidance to 7.0-7.7mmboe from 7.5-9.0mmboe.

Production at Bauna is expected to recommence in May. The Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.15
If KAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.97, suggesting upside of 38.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LLL as Outperform (1) -

Leo Lithium has increased the cost forecasts for Goulamina stage 1 to -US$318m which is less than Macquarie anticipated (-US$340m).

Significantly, the project is on track for DSO shipments before the end of 2023, to deliver first spodumene concentrate production in the second half of 2024.

Outperform rating and $1.50 target maintained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.985
If LLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 191% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MAD as Buy (1) -

Revenue outperformance for Mader Group's Australian segment in the 3Q was offset by weaker-than-expected North American business unit service sales, explains Bell Potter.

The broker feels overall group revenue growth has de-risked the company’s ability to achieve its upgraded FY23 revenue guidance set in February. It's believed the current growth momentum and a seasonally stronger 4Q will help attain this guidance.

The analysts's unchanged Buy thesis is predicated on continued expansion into new, large markets, including the US and
the Canadian mining and energy sectors. The target rises to $5.10 from $5.00.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.48 Difference: $0.62
If MAD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MAD as Buy (1) -

Mader Group delivered 7% quarter on quarter growth in revenue despite a typically seasonally weaker period. The Australian business stood out, Shaw and Partners notes, with revenue well ahead of expectations.

Guidance is reiterated and the broker suspects revenue will be ahead of the $580m anticipated as the company has been "immensely successful" in delivering on its targets.

The broker retains a Buy rating and $5.34 target.

Target price is $5.34 Current Price is $4.48 Difference: $0.86
If MAD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MAF as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett views positively the report for the Review of the Migration System which highlighted superior economic outcomes from the Significant Investor Visa (SIV) and may improve the SIV channel outlook.

Overall, MA Financial's flow channel diversity has improved, lowering its SIV exposure, yet migration reform risk remains, cautions the analyst.

The broker retains its Buy rating and $7.50 target.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $4.47 Difference: $3.03
If MAF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Spodumene concentrate shipments were a miss against Bell Potter's forecasts for the 3Q while realised prices were a beat. Iron Ore performed in line with guidance and forecasts.

Management's FY23 production guidance at Mount Marion was lowered and cost guidance increased on expansion delays, while lithium battery chemicals (LBC) sales guidance at Wodgina was lowered and conversion guidance was unchanged.

Weakness in uncontracted lithium pricing has resulted in producers like Mineral Resources holding increasing inventories of finished LBC’s, for sale into potentially stronger future markets, explains the analyst.

The broker maintains its Buy rating and lowers its target to $95 from $100. 

Bell Potter forecasts dividend suspension, to maintain liquidity, until the FY25 interim dividend.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $72.05 Difference: $22.95
If MIN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $92.86, suggesting upside of 25.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCM as Outperform (1) -

March quarter production was below Macquarie's expectations while costs were in line.

 Newcrest Mining has retained FY23 production guidance, anticipating a stronger fourth quarter because of lower process plant maintenance and improving grades at some mines.

Gold and FX present key risks to Macquarie's base case and an Outperform rating and $33 target are maintained.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $28.51 Difference: $4.49
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.76, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NCM as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans assesses Newcrest Mining is on-track to deliver FY23 guidance after posting steady gold and copper production during the 3Q.

The broker believes the Newcrest share price will continue to trade at a discount to the Newmont takeover price to reflect significant time to implementation.

The rating falls to Hold from Add on valuation, while the target rises to $25.80 from $25.70.

Target price is $25.80 Current Price is $28.51 Difference: minus $2.71 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.76, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

UBS considers it increasingly likely a binding bid from Newmont will emerge. As a result, the performance of Newmont is more important than short-term production from the Newcrest Mining mines.

Retaining a Neutral rating, the broker calculates that owning Newmont CDIs for gold exposure is more attractive than than lower-quality and higher-cost ASX small-mid cap alternatives.

The exclusive due diligence ends on May 11 and after that the broker expects a binding bid will eventuate. Target is reduced to $30.15 from $31.15.

Target price is $30.15 Current Price is $28.51 Difference: $1.64
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.76, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Neutral (3) -

March quarter nickel metal production of 26,700t was 12% higher than Macquarie expected. This was slightly offset by weaker than-expected nickel matte production.

The main catalyst for Nickel Industries is the approval of the conditional placement from the EGM as well as from the Foreign Investment Review Board.

The broker makes minor changes to estimates, pushing back the acquisition of HNC HPAL to the second quarter of 2023, which means a -3% reduction in forecast earnings per share for the year. Neutral maintained. Target edges up to $0.93 from $0.92.

Target price is $0.93 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Neutral (3) -

Northern Star Resources' March quarter was softer, as expected, given milling issues at Pogo and KCGM. However the period delivered cost reductions and the miner's best operational cashflow year to date, Citi notes.

Cost guidance has been revised up, but overall Northern Star is confident in delivery of a strong June quarter.

Neutral and $12.10 target retained.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $13.87 Difference: minus $1.77 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.04, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Northern Star Resources reported production results that were -9% below Macquarie's expectations while costs were -9% higher. Sales guidance for FY23 has been maintained with higher grades being flagged.

 The company also expects to make a decision on the KCGM mill expansion during 2023, having successfully raised US$600m in senior guaranteed notes. Macquarie retains an Outperform rating, lifting the target to $15.00 from $14.30.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.87 Difference: $1.13
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.04, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Sell (5) -

Northern Star Resources has maintained FY23 guidance for 1.56-1.68m ounces of gold, although UBS observes the June quarter needs to significantly improve on the March quarter outcome in order to hit the bottom of the guidance range.

The broker does not expect any material changes to the annual reserve and resource update, due in May, noting a general industry trend for adding US$100-200/oz to price assumptions is countered by increased costs.

A Sell rating maintained. Target is reduced to $12.70 from $13.00.

Target price is $12.70 Current Price is $13.87 Difference: minus $1.17 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.04, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PBH as Speculative Buy (1) -

Recent media reports suggest PointsBet Holdings may sell its US business for around US$500m, a figure Bell Potter considers reasonable or even conservative.

The broker holds this view as the business is the 7th largest sportsbook in the US, which holds attraction for a potential acquirer, along with the company's proprietary technology platform.

While the analyst makes no changes to forecasts the target rises to $3.00 from $2.75 after adjustments to the valuation methodology 

The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $1.35
If PBH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PGL as Buy (1) -

Prospa Group sustained positive momentum the March quarter despite volatile economic conditions. Shaw and Partners highlights the fact the company is rare in the new-lending/fintech space in that it is profitable.

Accelerating momentum in the loan book is expected in FY23 and as Australia's "clear #1 in SME lending" the company is "ideally positioned" in the broker's view for long-term and profitable growth. Buy rating and $1 target maintained.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.5
If PGL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Buy (1) -

Returning from a conference call with management at Pilbara Minerals, Citi analysts report weakness is anticipated for the June quarter, but also that management would be surprised is the market softens "strongly".

It has been highlighted the price weakness inside China contrasts with market dynamics elsewhere. Pilbara remains positive on lithium facing structural deficits. Plus management made the point that mining hard rock lithium is not an easy endeavour.

Earlier, Pilbara Minerals reported operating cashflow in the March quarter down -3% on the Dec quarter but better than the Sep quarter, Citi notes.

The average selling price was down -15% on Dec. Pilbara expects softening prices into Jun quarter until chemicals pricing stabilises. Production guidance was maintained with costs nudging up. 

Buy and $4.60 target.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.64
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 19.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

March quarter results were within range of Macquarie's forecasts. Pilbara Minerals is progressing its PE680 to plan which will deliver extra production in the short term.

Macquarie is impressed with the free cash flow yields of 22% and 21% for FY23 in FY24, respectively, maintaining an Outperform rating and $7.70 target.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $3.74
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 94% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 19.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes the March quarter was "weak" for Pilbara Minerals amid lower production and cost pressures. FY23 cost guidance has increased to $600-640/tmt. Nevertheless, despite lower volumes in the quarter, the year-to-date run rate remains within guidance.

The broker retains an Underweight rating and $3.15 target. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: minus $0.81 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 19.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PLS as Buy (1) -

March quarter production was below UBS estimates. Tonnage was less and concentrate grade was reduced. This accounted for 20% of the miss to estimates while the retention of the contract discount after the restructure accounted for the bulk.

The broker reduces earnings estimates but maintains a Buy rating believing the stock is "too cheap" and generating "too much cash" despite expectations for weaker prices as China works through its inventory. Target is lowered to $4.50 from $4.60.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.54
If PLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 19.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PLY as Buy (1) -

Playside Studios expects FY23 revenue will now be in excess of $35m, underpinned by original IP and unchanged WFH.

Dumb Ways to Die revenue will remain elevated in the fourth quarter, Shaw and Partners notes, albeit not to the same extent as in the third quarter. 

The Buy rating is reiterated and the target price is $0.70.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.37
If PLY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 112% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PPT as Buy (1) -

Perpetual’s March quarter update offered some cause for encouragement, Citi suggests, with Barrow flows turning positive, an upgrade to integration synergies and only a trickle of outflows overall.

While there is a June quarter -$1bn mandate loss flagged, and still a long way to go for the Pendal integration, the broker sees this as a reasonable outcome given the market backdrop.

Target rises to $30.00 from $28.60, Buy retained.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $23.85 Difference: $6.15
If PPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.65, suggesting upside of 24.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PPT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie is more positive following the March quarter update. Net outflows moderated while the synergy targets have increased to $80m from "at least $60m".

Expenses guidance was the most disappointing component of the update, the broker points out, expected to be 36-38% higher in FY23.

Macquarie finds the valuation very attractive on the synergy realisation profile and retains an Outperform rating. Target edges up to $31 from $30.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $23.85 Difference: $7.15
If PPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.65, suggesting upside of 24.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PPT as Overweight (1) -

March quarter investment flows were better than Morgan Stanley expected. Cash inflow of $1bn was ahead of expectations.

The mix of investment flows were lower margin although the Wealth and Corporate Trust divisions remained firm. Pendal synergies have increased by 33%.

The target is steady at $30.40. Overweight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $30.40 Current Price is $23.85 Difference: $6.55
If PPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.65, suggesting upside of 24.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RBL as Neutral (3) -

Margins improved for Redbubble in the March quarter as marketing and promotional activities were adjusted and prices increased. Revenue guidance has been reaffirmed for FY23 while operating expenditure guidance has been tightened.

UBS points out doubts around a near-term return to profitability amid concerns about the balance sheet position, which means the business is currently trading at an enterprise value of around $90m.

A Neutral rating is maintained given the uncertainty associated with a return to positive cash flow. Target is reduced to $0.45 from $0.55.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.05
If RBL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.55, suggesting upside of 38.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RED as Hold (3) -

After incorporating 3Q results into forecasts and slightly increasing near-term cost estimates, Ord Minnett lowers its Red 5 target price to 15c from 17c.

The broker now sees increased balance sheet risk for the 4Q given all-in cash costs were higher than expected and there was a lower working capital unwind than expected.

The Hold rating is maintained as the analyst still sees longer-term valuation appeal.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If RED meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RFG as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes a stronger balance sheet is now available to Retail Food to grow its organic brands. The company continues to investigate a number of early stage acquisition opportunities but has indicated future growth will be underpinned by core business.

FY23 underlying EBITDA has been reiterated for the mid-to high end of the $26-29m guidance range provided at the AGM in November. Shaw and Partners believes cash flow will materially improve in FY24 and strongly reiterates a Buy rating with a $0.15 target.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.078
If RFG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 108% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RMD as Buy (1) -

ResMed reported Q3 financials and Citi analysts comment the adjusted EPS is 28% higher than the year prior, and 3% above market consensus.

Gains on equity investments and lower JV costs made the difference, according to the analysts, though revenues 6% above consensus would have helped too.

A negative product geographic mix weighed down the gross margin and this has been identified as the key negative. ResMed is now able to supply the entire US market with connected devices.

While growth in devices is anticipated to slow sequentially in 2023, management is expecting the gross margin to improve. JVs that were previously expected to be loss-making are now anticipated to break-even.

All in all, Citi remains of the view the competitive environment continues to favour ResMed while Philips has as yet to fully complete its product recall remediation.

Buy. Target $39.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $33.73 Difference: $5.27
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.98, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Equal-weight (3) -

March quarter revenue beat Morgan Stanley's expectations, up 29%. This was attributed to a strong performance across all regions as supply chain issues eased.

ResMed's US device sales were up 48% while the rest of the world sales were up 29%. Mask sales in the US were up 14% and the rest of the world 9%.

The Equal-weight rating is maintained. Industry view: In-line. Price target is $30.80.

Target price is $30.80 Current Price is $33.73 Difference: minus $2.93 (current price is over target).
If RMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.98, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Outperform (1) -

March quarter production of 54,200 ounces of gold was -16% below Macquarie's estimates. Edna May production was higher than expected but this was outweighed by soft output from Mount Magnet.

Despite the softer quarter, Ramelius Resources took advantage of the forward curve and added 20,000 ounces of gold to its hedge book. Macquarie notes the hedge prices for outer years were above its base case forecast and this has improved the earnings outlook for FY24 and beyond.

Outperform maintained. Target rises to $1.43 from $1.35.

Target price is $1.43 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.09
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.48, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Despite the production impact from delayed approvals for the Penny gold mine haul road to the Mt Magnet mining and processing operations, costs for Ramelius Resources were lower than Ord Minnett expected in the 3Q.

After taking into account these results and the company's all-scrip takeover offer for Breaker Resources ((BRB)) during the quarter, the broker lowers its target to $1.50 from $1.60. It's assumed the acquisition will complete.

The Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.16
If RMS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.48, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Ramelius Resources reported 54,000 ounces of gold production in the March quarter at an AISC of $1873/oz, softer than Shaw and Partners expected because of delays at  Penny.

 The best news is that costs have peaked and will reduce further in FY24. The broker makes minor revisions to forecasts to reflect lower production along with a higher gold price. Buy rating and $1.50 target retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.16
If RMS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.48, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Sell (5) -

Regis Resources' group production and revised guidance was pre-released, but the quarterly results brought details on the operational issues which impacted all sites. Citi expects June quarter production to lift 13% to meet the lower end of guidance and costs.

The legacy hedgebook was a -$30m headwind this quarter. Operational expense at Duketon North was again above the gold price, and management has flagged care and maintenance is an option.

A revised gold price forecast lifts the target to $1.85 from $1.70, Sell retained.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Equal-weight (3) -

March quarter results were weak, Morgan Stanley asserts, as production was lower amid challenges from the weather and limited fleet availability/productivity problems. Tropicana helped offset some of the higher costs at DNO.

Taking into account the results and updated FY23 guidance drives a decrease in the broker's estimates for earnings per share in FY23.

Equal-Weight rating retained. Target rises to $2.05 from $2.00. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RRL as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Despite a soft 3Q for Regis Resources with production and costs missing Morgans forecasts, the broker raises its rating to Add from hold and increases its target to $2.51 from $1.91.

These changes are due to a positive outlook for 4Q production, approval at the McPhillamys Gold project and the potential for large cap gold miner takeovers/consolidation, explains the analyst.

The McPhillamys project is risked to 40% from 20% by the broker as a result of regulatory approval by NSW’s Independent Planning Commission.

Management revised FY23 guidance with production expected between 450koz-470koz at an all-in sustaing cost (AISC) of $1,795/oz - $1,845/oz.

Target price is $2.51 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.33
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

UBS found little that was new in the quarterly production report as Regis Resources had downgraded FY23 expectations just two weeks ago.

McPhillamys has reached final state approvals and the broker now anticipates an updated feasibility study along with funding to be future catalysts. Neutral maintained, as the broker would like a cheaper entry point. Target is steady at $2.35.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.17
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

Production was "solid" in the March quarter, Macquarie observes, and ahead of estimates. 2023 production and cost guidance from Resolute Mining are unchanged at 350,000 ounces and US$1480/oz, respectively.

Meanwhile the pre-feasibility study for Syama North is on track with completion targeted for mid 2023. Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and increases the target to $0.52 from $0.45.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.06
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RWC as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

On Citi's calculations, Reliance Worldwide's March quarter is tracking over 10% higher than consensus second half expectations.

Growth above the market took market share to record levels and the broker was surprised at the muted share price response to the update.

After a period of underperformance, Citi upgrades to Neutral form Sell. Near term the broker sees a strong combination of sales momentum and declining input costs.

But Citi is cautious in capitalising these historically high levels of above market growth, as there is currently  limited clarity on drivers or sustainability. Target rises to $4.10 from $3.00.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $0.17
If RWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RWC as Outperform (1) -

March quarter sales were in line with expectations. The update has highlighted the comparatively defensive positioning of the Reliance Worldwide business, Macquarie notes, particularly in the Americas and EMEA.

New product developments are supporting growth and margins are recovering. The main softness going forward is likely to be housing markets. The broker retains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $4.60 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $0.67
If RWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RWC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes sales have been resilient and margins are improving, while the full year outlook for Reliance Worldwide is unchanged in the latest update.

Cost pressures have continued to ease and margins in the March quarter were ahead of the first half. Management has reiterated its cost reduction target of -US$15m for FY24.

Overweight rating and $4.00 target maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $0.07
If RWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RWC as Hold (3) -

Reliance Worldwide's 3Q trading update was slightly better than Morgans expected, with a sales rise of 10.3% (including EZ-Flo) exceeding the 8.8% forecast.

Sales growth (constant currency) in the EMEA region was higher than the analyst forecast due to a strong UK performance.

Management stated overall demand remains resilient in most markets.

Morgans retains its Hold rating and raises its target to $3.79 from $3.75.

Target price is $3.79 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If RWC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RWC as Hold (3) -

Sales for Reliance Worldwide increased by 2.3% in the 3Q to US$330.9m and Ord Minnett believes margins will improve in the 2H given lower input costs. The target rises to $3.90 from $3.40. Hold.

The broker expects construction activity for the near-term in the Americas, EMEA and APAC will remain challenging and management's outlook commentary was considered subdued.

Sales in the EMEA region were a positive surprise for the analyst, while volumes in the Americas increased by 1.8%, well ahead of the -2% forecast by the analyst, and also exceeded volumes achieved by peers.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If RWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RWC as Buy (1) -

UBS observes Reliance Worldwide delivered solid sales growth in the March quarter, with the Americas posting 4%. The broker notes the macro environment is holding up better-than-expected and the pricing is encouraging.

While it would prefer a more rapid improvement in margins, the broker acknowledges the trend is in the right direction which, when combined with a more defensive exposure, is a positive reflection on the stock.

Buy rating and $4.60 target retained.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $0.67
If RWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as No Rating (-1) -

St. Barbara provided March quarter results that were within forecasts. Macquarie notes guidance for costs is now higher while Leonora volume guidance has been reduced.

The company has agreed to the sale of the Leonora assets to Genesis Minerals ((GMD)), amid new terms to replace the previous scheme. These terms include the sale for a cash and scrip consideration of up to $600m.

Macquarie remains restricted and cannot provide a rating or target.

Current Price is $0.61. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $0.98, suggesting upside of 60.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SDR as Buy (1) -

SiteMinder's 3Q results held few surprises and Ord Minnett suggests they indicate a business performing either at or above expectations.

A higher share price is being thwarted by the market's current aversion to long-duration growth assets, in the analyst's view.

The broker notes net subscriber additions accelerated in the 3Q compared to the 1H of FY23 and the 2Q of FY23, and the uptake of transaction products continues to increase.

The target rises to $5.42 from $5.21 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $5.42 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $1.97
If SDR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.59, suggesting upside of 53.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SDR as Buy (1) -

SiteMinder maintained strong revenue growth in the March quarter and UBS believes the business is on track to achieve FY23 forecasts. Strength is reflected in both subscription products as well as transaction uptake.

Further support should come from the reopening of Asia and the impact of Chinese carriers on the return of international airline capacity. Further opportunities are available going forward from the development of the Smart Platform. Buy rating and $6.55 target maintained.

Target price is $6.55 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $3.1
If SDR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.59, suggesting upside of 53.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Sandfire Resources' March quarter update focused on a  less-than-stellar operational performance from Matsa and strategy regarding M&A, Citi reports. Copper production expectations at Matsa have nudged down while zinc is higher.

Degrussa expectations lift so net-net group copper should be at the top end of guidance. Management says M&A is a "nice to have", if it makes sense and delivers value, not a "must have".

Citi retains Neutral given a cautious short term view on copper. Target unchanged at $6.30.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $6.62 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.01, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie found the March quarter results mixed, with lower copper production offset by higher zinc. Adjustments to guidance for FY23 have a marginal impact on the broker's earnings estimates for Sandfire Resources.

Motheo is on the cusp of production and progress will be a key catalyst for the short term, the broker observes. Meanwhile, exploration success at San Pedro has capacity to add further resources to the Matsa project over the next year.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $7.30 target.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $6.62 Difference: $0.68
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.01, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Equal-weight (3) -

March quarter copper production was 17% ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates, amid higher production at DeGrussa. Matsa production was -10% below forecasts because of lower milled volumes. Morgan Stanley updates its model to allow for new guidance.

All up, FY23 estimates for earnings per share are downgraded while FY24 and FY25 are upgraded. Equal-weight rating maintained. Target is raised to $5.75 from $5.65. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $6.62 Difference: minus $0.87 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.01, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Stronger third quarter production and costs at DeGrussa offset lower production and higher costs at the Matsa operations, explains Ord Minnett, which raises its target price for Sandfire Resources to $7.50 from $7.45.

Management increased FY23 guidance for zinc by 7%, while CI costs and sustaining capital spend guidance was adjusted by 3% and -6%, respectively.

The broker's rating falls to Accumulate from Buy after a significant share price rally since March 10, and due to standard commissioning risk at Motheo. Despite this downgrade, the analyst still sees upside on exploration upside at both Matsa and Motheo.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.62 Difference: $0.88
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.01, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

March quarter production totalled 18,500t copper and 21,000t zinc. The Matsa Magdalena mine worked through lower production rates and FY23 copper production has been trimmed as a result.

Motheo in Botswana is on track for first production in coming days. The broker suggests bringing in Khomecau next to Motheo at an attractive price would add appeal to the stock, although acknowledges there is plenty of work remaining to be done at other projects.

Neutral rating and $8 target maintained.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.62 Difference: $1.38
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.01, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes the outlook for Land Lease Communities is positive with Stockland targeting more than 1000 settlements in the medium. The broker considers the asset class favourable, amid attractive returns and structural tailwinds.

Drivers of demand include population growth in the aged bracket, improving penetration and the ability to release equity from prior home ownership. Yet, with limited valuation support a Neutral rating is retained. Target edges up to $4.49 from $4.45.

Target price is $4.49 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: $0.11
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

Stockland has updated on its Land Lease Communities business. The company has stated a new medium-term target of 1,000-plus settlements per year with a significant ramp up expected post-FY25.

There are 14 additional sites from the existing residential book identified for LLC projects. Moreover, the company is looking at both land acquisitions and growth through consolidation.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and $4.30 target price. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates STA as Buy (1) -

Strandline Resources posted its maiden positive operating cash flow in the March quarter as the Coburn project commenced sales of heavy mineral concentrate. The mineral separation plant was commissioned during the quarter with first sales of the final product expected in coming weeks.

Coburn will produce around 230,000t of HMC per annum with a mine life of 22.5 years. The company is also assessing options to expand the project to meet the market demand.

Shaw and Partners retains a Buy rating with an $0.80 target, noting Coburn is a world-class development that is fully funded.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.44
If STA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYR as Outperform (1) -

Syrah Resources delivered production and shipments that were higher quarter on quarter but below Macquarie's forecasts. Costs remain elevated.

Incorporating the results and lowering production to account for easing volumes at Balama, which in turn has higher costs, means the broker's estimates for earnings per share shift to negative in 2023.

There are also reductions of -50% and -40% for FY24 and FY25, respectively. The broker retains an Outperform rating and reduces the target by -13% to $2.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.72
If SYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

March quarter results were driven by lower weighted average pricing and graphite production. Moreover, Syrah Resources provided the DFS results for the Vidalia 45,000tpa AAM facility in which capital expenditure was twice Morgan Stanley's estimates.

The broker updates its modelling which drives a decrease in 2023 estimates for earnings per share. Production forecasts for 2024 are also lowered. Equal-weight rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.25 from $1.80. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23: