Australian Broker Call
November 24, 2016
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
Last Updated: 11:06 AM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
ALU - | ALTIUM | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
RHP - | RHIPE | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
SGP - | STOCKLAND | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
UBS rates ALU as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
The company's share price has declined 12% since the beginning of September. At the AGM management reiterated guidance for US$100m in revenue in FY17 rising to US$200m in FY20. UBS believes these targets are achievable.
The broker believes current valuation levels appropriately reflect the fundamentals and upgrades its rating to Neutral from Sell. Target of $9.05 is unchanged.
Target price is $9.05 Current Price is $8.56 Difference: $0.49
If ALU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.95, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of 19.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates APE as Hold (3) -
The trading update signalled 2016 underlying profit before tax should be $135-140m, up on the $121m reported a year ago but below Ord Minnett estimates.
The broker observes the stock has de-rated significantly over the past three months amid concerns over the regulatory review into commissions paid to dealerships.
The broker considers it too early to predict the outcomes from the review and how the industry structure will adjust to any changes. Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $10.00 from $11.38.
Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.37 Difference: $0.63
If APE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.90, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.1, implying annual growth of 11.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.2, implying annual growth of 9.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates BLD as Underweight (5) -
The acquisition of Headwaters is a significant shift for the company. Morgan Stanley envisages potential for synergistic upside but the large multiple and risks require the retention of an Underweight rating.
The broker is concerned about the fly ash outlook and the sustainability of building product margins.
The broker continues to expect earnings risks in the Australian business in FY17. In-line industry view. The broker lowers the target to $5.58 from $6.07.
Target price is $5.58 Current Price is $6.15 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.18, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 22.40 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.9, implying annual growth of 7.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.10 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.9, implying annual growth of 10.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CTX as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse believes Caltex is a business where solid growth can be achieved without large-scale mergers and/or acquisitions. On this basis the stock is considered highly under leveraged.
The broker is amazed at how punitive Standard & Poor's is towards Caltex, relative to the oil price-exposed Australian corporates. The broker considers the stock cheap and an Outperform rating and $40 target are maintained.
Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $30.42 Difference: $9.58
If CTX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $35.17, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 104.00 cents and EPS of 207.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.6, implying annual growth of -12.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 112.00 cents and EPS of 223.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 221.0, implying annual growth of 8.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates DOW as Neutral (3) -
Citi analysts have kept their Neutral rating, but upped the price target to $5.55 from $4.30, which still leaves the share price higher. The company has closed the Victoria's $2bn HCMT rail project contract with major impact in FY18 and FY19.
Estimates have been lifted. Downer is also in the running for the Sydney growth trains contract and the analysts note an announcement is expected over the next few weeks.Their view is Downer is well placed to win the tender.
Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If DOW meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.09, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 36.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.2, implying annual growth of -2.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 38.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.5, implying annual growth of 3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley expects weakness in zircon sales to persist while the buoyancy in the titanium dioxide market has opened an opportunity for value investors.
There are also aspects to the Sierra Rutile deal that the broker identifies as positive. Sierra Rutile would allow Iluka to gain a dominant share in the very high-grade pigment market, which could mean improved prices if plant utilisation rates continue to improve.
Overweight rating and Attractive industry view retained. Target is reduced to $7.25 from $7.80.
Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $6.51 Difference: $0.74
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.53, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.0, implying annual growth of -60.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 128.4. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 234.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MQA as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie notes a similar business to APRR, HIT, a toll road network north of Paris, is being divested of a 15% interest. The broker considers this a potential valuation proxy.
The broker does not believe private pricing for infrastructure assets has moved materially with the bond rally and pricing of Greenway through the auction process, and the implied pricing of APRR via this HIT divestment, providing an independent proxy to value.
At this stage, Macquarie calculates investors are getting Greenway for free.The broker retains a Outperform rating and $5.90 target.
Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $4.51 Difference: $1.39
If MQA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 27.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of 62.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7. |
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 63.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.9, implying annual growth of 88.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates MTS as Neutral (3) -
Metcash is scheduled to release interim financials on 28 November 2016. Citi analysts are anticipating core EPS of 8.6c, down 8% on the pcp. The three key business units are expected to report -0.6% EBIT growth.
All in all, it is Citi's view the stabilisation of the major supermarket chains is resulting in an intensifying competitive environment in Food and Grocery. The analysts suggest this is weighing on earnings. Neutral.
Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.365
If MTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.17, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of -21.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 19.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.3, implying annual growth of 11.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates NXT as Buy (1) -
UBS considers concerns around new supply coming into Australia are overdone, noting the company's share price is down by 27% since the end of September.
UBS calculates current operational data centres suggest an underlying FY17 enterprise value/EBITDA of 14.3, with underlying three-year compound EBITDA growth of 25%.
On the broker's analysis these multiples represent a discount of 12% to international peers, despite offering double digit forecast EBITDA growth over the next three years. A Buy rating is retained. Target is $4.75.
Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: $1.61
If NXT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.71, suggesting upside of 45.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 60.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.0, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates PPH as Buy (1) -
In the context of the company's stellar growth, Ord Minnett considers the first half result highlights the business is on track and executing strongly.
Revenue of $12m and an EBITDA loss of $10.1m were slightly below the broker's expectations.
The company will acquire the church application business of Bluebridge Financial for up to US$3.1m. The broker considers this a good transaction which provides a payments platform and an engagement application which will deliver several benefits at an attractive price.
Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $2.74 from $2.60.
Target price is $2.74 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $1.04
If PPH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.58 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.52 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PRG  PROGRAMMED MAINTENANCE SERVICES LIMITED
Commercial Services & Supplies
Overnight Price: $1.74
Deutsche Bank rates PRG as Buy (1) -
First half results go some way to easing Deutsche Bank's concerns following the downgrade in September, highlighting a stabilising of the key workforce business. The broker is comforted by the strong outlook for free cash flow.
The broker believes there is strong value on offer at current multiples and maintains a Buy rating. The company has reiterated FY17 EBITDA guidance of $100m and has noted a reasonable pipeline of opportunities exist. Target is $2.10.
Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.36
If PRG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 24.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates PRG as Outperform (1) -
First half results were in line with Macquarie's expectations. Prior FY17 guidance for EBITDA of $100m was reiterated.
While weakness in the labour hire business is disappointing, the broker considers the valuation undemanding and debt is reducing as expected. Outperform retained. Target slips to $2.00 from $2.01.
Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.26
If PRG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 19.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 24.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates PRG as Accumulate (2) -
First half results were slightly below Ord Minnett's forecasts. Management has retained FY17 operating earnings guidance at around $100m, which suggests a meaningful uplift will be required in the second half.
The broker observes the stock price remains depressed and gearing is the biggest hurdle to a re-rating. Accumulate rating and $1.80 target retained.
Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.06
If PRG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 24.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates PRG as Buy (1) -
First half earnings and underlying profit were in line with expectations. A 3.5c fully franked dividend was declared.
With the integration of Skilled largely completed, and marine earnings ring-fenced, UBS observes significant opportunities for the staffing and maintenance divisions. The broker believes earnings have troughed and this should translate into improving returns going forward.
UBS maintains a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $2.00 from $2.25.
Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.26
If PRG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 24.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates RHP as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -
The company's AGM update has shown good revenue trajectory in the first quarter. Underlying guidance has been reiterated but a number of one-offs now mean reported EBITDA guidance has been downgraded to $4m from $5m.
Morgans downgrades its forecasts in line guidance and believes management will need to achieve this revised guidance for investor confidence to be restored. The broker downgrades to Hold from Add. Target is reduced to $0.86 from $1.11.
Target price is $0.86 Current Price is $0.86 Difference: $0
If RHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates SGP as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
UBS believes Stockland can grow its residential earnings despite market volumes declining in FY17/18.
This is considered likely, given the company's increasing market share, which is driven by more capital being employed and more active projects, as well as diversity and product mix.
The broker upgrades to Buy from Neutral, given the material movements in the market and a 18% decline from its peak. Target is reduced to $4.64 from $4.84.
Target price is $4.64 Current Price is $4.24 Difference: $0.4
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.75, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.40 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.5, implying annual growth of -18.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.80 cents and EPS of 34.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 5.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates TCL as Outperform (1) -
The Queensland government has approved the Logan enhancement project. Total project cost is $512m ($320m TCL share) and financial close is expected in December.
As a whole, Macquarie observes the transaction is not significant but the main element for Transurban is that it has negotiated another road, which will mean its truck multiplier is increased beyond three times.
Within the context of a toll road, this creates a low-risk source of value that can fund the development which improves the feeder network or toll road, the broker notes.
For a low risk asset, Macquarie believes Transurban is undervalued. Outperform reiterated.Target is $12.40.
Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $10.33 Difference: $2.07
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.92, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 51.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of 436.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 58.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.8, implying annual growth of 7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates WEB as Buy (1) -
The company has confirmed FY17 EBITDA guidance of $60m. Bookings growth continues to outperform the market. UBS notes longer term targets are still in place in business-to-consumer and business-to-business.
Buy and $10.72 target retained.
Target price is $10.72 Current Price is $10.48 Difference: $0.24
If WEB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 38.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.5, implying annual growth of 55.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 46.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.8, implying annual growth of 12.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
ALU - | ALTIUM | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $8.56 |
APE - | AP EAGERS | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $9.37 |
BLD - | BORAL | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $6.15 |
CTX - | CALTEX AUSTRALIA | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $30.42 |
DOW - | DOWNER EDI | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $5.62 |
ILU - | ILUKA RESOURCES | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $6.51 |
MQA - | MACQUARIE ATLAS ROADS | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.51 |
MTS - | METCASH | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $1.94 |
NXT - | NEXTDC | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.14 |
PPH - | PUSHPAY HOLDINGS | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.70 |
PRG - | PROGRAM MAINTENANCE | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $1.74 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.74 | ||
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.74 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $1.74 | ||
RHP - | RHIPE | Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.86 |
SGP - | STOCKLAND | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.24 |
TCL - | TRANSURBAN GROUP | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $10.33 |
WEB - | WEBJET | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $10.48 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 11 |
2. Accumulate | 1 |
3. Hold | 5 |
5. Sell | 1 |
Thursday 24 November 2016
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
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with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.