Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates ABC as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Adelaide Brighton continues facing challenges in its strategically important South Australian market, Macquarie notes. Cement volumes continue to arrive from foreign sources and expansion in SE Queensland concrete capacity comes at a bad time as market dynamics will be significantly tested. The broker assumes no price growth.

Downgrade to Underperform, target falls to $3.30 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.64 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If ABC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.12, suggesting downside of -14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ADH as Buy (1) -

UBS assesses the market is not fully reflecting the value of the company's online business, instead valuing it as a structurally-challenged bricks & mortar retailer.

The online business is profitable and growing in double digits, the broker points out. The integration of Mocka and a supply chain restructure, along with growth in online, are considered catalysts for a re-rating.

The company will report first half results on February 21. UBS maintains a Buy rating and $2.60 target.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.39
If ADH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASB as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi upgrades to Buy from Neutral, believing the stock should be a relative safe haven in reporting season given the improved execution on the US defence backlog.

There is a potential positive catalyst surrounding Subic Bay and the weaker Australian dollar. Citi raises the target to $4.40 from $4.30.

While the broker retains concerns around the US Navy retiring the LCS early and the FFG (X) tender being highly competitive, these factors are unlikely to impact on earnings over the next 12 months.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.92 Difference: $0.48
If ASB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.42, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASG as Buy (1) -

New vehicle sales have fallen 2.9% in the first half and the company now expects first half revenue and profit to be in line with the prior corresponding half.

UBS expects the performance to improve in the second half as OEM (original equipment manufacturer) targets are re-based. There also should be tailwinds coming from acquisitions.

The company has indicated there has been a stabilisation of luxury sales, and volumes are expected to improve through 2020. UBS maintains a Buy rating and $2 target.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.64 Difference: $0.36
If ASG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BPT as Hold (3) -

Sales revenue grew by 6% in the December quarter which Morgans expects will lead to a strong full year result.

There are also likely to be some additional reserves being booked from exploration in the South Australian Otway Basin and in the Perth Basin which are yet to be factored into numbers.

Without significantly higher commodity prices, valuation falls short of the recent trading range and the broker retains a Hold rating, lifting the target to $2.32 from $2.29.

Target price is $2.32 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.44, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CL1 as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett observes the NowInfinity acquisition stole all the attention in what was otherwise an unexciting second quarter update.

The strategic rationale for the acquisition is now quite clear, although the broker points out the market for these products is more competitive than self-managed super funds, and the company will have to demonstrate the value in the offering.

Hold rating maintained. Target is raised to $1.95 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If CL1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSR as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi assesses the domestic housing cycle is bottoming and forecasts a medium-term shortage that will underpin a cyclical recovery.

Along with a strengthening US housing cycle the broker recommends a selectively bullish position.

The rating on CSR is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target lifted to $5.60 from $4.30.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: $0.73
If CSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.06, suggesting downside of -16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EHL as Outperform (1) -

Emeco is to acquire Pit N Portal, thereby diversifying into underground equipment rental and services. The acquisition reduces the company's net thermal coal exposure to 17% from 20%, the broker notes, and increases gold to 27%.

It's a strategically sound investment, the broker suggests, complementing Emeco's core business, conditions in which remain robust. Outperform and $3.00 target retained.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.73
If EHL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Production in the December quarter was steady with the higher-quality assets covering for the issues at Mount Carlton, Ord Minnett observes.

Cowal and Ernest Henry produced a combined 88,000 ounces at all-in sustainable costs of $552/oz.

The Red Lake deal is expected to close at the end of March. Hold rating and $3.70 target maintained.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.01
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.05, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

The highlight from the December quarter production were the exploration outcomes, particularly at Cowal, summarises the broker. These included broad and high-grade intercepts outside of the current resource.

Management is now committed to a pre-feasibility study for an underground mine. UBS believes value is beginning to emerge in the stock, which is now trading at a discount to peers.

However, it seemingly lacks near-term catalysts to turn around the underperformance, outside of the drought breaking. Neutral rating and $4.25 target maintained.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.56
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.05, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FBU as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi assesses the domestic housing cycle is bottoming and forecasts a medium-term shortage that will underpin a cyclical recovery.

Along with a strengthening US housing cycle the broker recommends a selectively bullish position.

The broker upgrades Fletcher Building to Buy from Neutral and raises the target to NZ$6.25 from NZ$5.10.

Current Price is $5.36. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Shipments in the December quarter were up 9% on the prior corresponding quarter and up 10% on the September quarter. Product mix is essentially unchanged.

The company has announced a US$450m electricity project in the Pilbara, incorporating 150MW of gas-fire generation and 150MW of solar.

On revised modelling, Citi envisages no issue for the balance sheet. The broker maintains a Neutral rating and $9.50 target.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $11.37 Difference: minus $1.87 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.64, suggesting downside of -15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Fortescue Metals has upgraded FY20 production and cost guidance. Credit Suisse adjusts forecasts 7% higher.

Despite the potential for a delay to the ramp up of China's steel production, because of the coronavirus, the company has reported no impact on the physical iron ore market to date.

The company's positioned to fund a heavy capital expenditure commitment until the end of 2021.

However, the broker points to a stretched valuation while highlighting the dividend capacity. Neutral rating and $11 target maintained.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $11.37 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.64, suggesting downside of -15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Fortescue Metals posted strong production numbers, with shipments 3% higher and costs -5% lower than forecast. Due to the solid cost performance the company has reduced FY20 cost guidance by -4%. Net debt at the end of the quarter was -25% lower than the broker expected.

The stock is trading on 13% free cash flow on Macquarie's iron ore forecasts and much higher if spot prices are assumed. Outperform retained, target rises to $12.80 from $10.50.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $11.37 Difference: $1.43
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.64, suggesting downside of -15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

FY20 production is expected to be at the top end of guidance after a strong December quarter.

Morgan Stanley retains an Underweight rating and $8 target, driven by valuation and concerns about a reversion in the iron ore discount rate. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $11.37 Difference: minus $3.37 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.64, suggesting downside of -15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett increases FY20 earnings forecasts by 4% on the back of a strong December quarter production report.

While the business continues to offer a superior operating performance and attractive shareholder returns the broker also believes the risks to China's growth stemming from coronavirus could prevent a near-term re-rating.

Hold rating and $11 target maintained.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $11.37 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.64, suggesting downside of -15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Sell (5) -

Shipments were up 9% in the December quarter and Fortescue Metals achieved 86% price realisation at US$76/t. The company has announced further expenditure of -US$450m on the Pilbara generation project and Eliwana and Iron Bridge remain on schedule.

In terms of coronavirus, China now accounts for a significantly greater proportion of total iron ore demand compared with 2003 when SARS was problematic.

This means any disruption to the Chinese economy could have more significant ramifications for the global iron ore market, UBS assesses. Stimulatory responses may also be more measured.

UBS retains a Sell rating and raises the target to $8.40 from $8.00.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $11.37 Difference: minus $2.97 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.64, suggesting downside of -15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GUD as Neutral (3) -

In an initial response to this morning's results release, Citi analysts note GUD's underlying performance was some 5% better than expected, but broadly in-line with market consensus. When adjusted for -$1.5m in restructuring costs, the analysts argue the correct labeling is "small miss".

They retain their ultimate assessment for after the conference call, also noting further acquisitions could represent upside risk.

Among the negatives cited are pressure on margins and no increase in the dividend. Sales growing, higher cash conversion, and cost control are among the stand-out positives, according to Citi.

Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $12.00 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If GUD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.72, suggesting downside of -10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GWA as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi assesses the domestic housing cycle is bottoming and forecasts a medium-term shortage that will underpin a cyclical recovery.

Along with a strengthening US housing cycle the broker recommends a selectively bullish position.

The broker upgrades GWA Group to Neutral from Sell and raises the target to $3.60 from $3.13.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: $0.01
If GWA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.26, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HPI as Hold (3) -

Morgans notes Hotel Property has dealt with its upcoming leasing risk by announcing the exercise of multiple options for 28 hotels. The leases were due to expire in June and December 2021 and represent 15% of the company's current passing income.

Potential catalysts for the stock, in the broker's view, include asset re-rating and corporate activity. Hold maintained. Target is reduced to $3.32 from $3.42.

Target price is $3.32 Current Price is $3.39 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If HPI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFL as Neutral (3) -

Citi found underlying net inflows in the December quarter respectable but it remains to be seen whether there is any incentive to former ANZ aligned advisers to bring them on board. IOOF has indicated it has not paid an acquisition price.

While the attraction of new advisers is encouraging, Citi suspects the near-term revenue uplift will be limited until they deploy funds onto the company's platforms. Neutral/High Risk rating maintained. Target is $7.90.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.90 Difference: $0
If IFL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.82, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IFL as Outperform (1) -

Funds under management increased 2.1% in the second quarter amid $690m in net inflows. The good outcome was driven largely by the ANZ platform related flows.

Credit Suisse finds momentum generally positive and the company's position as an independent wealth management provider should be favourable in coming years.

The broker considers the stock offers good value and reiterates an Outperform rating. Target is $8.45.

Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $7.90 Difference: $0.55
If IFL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.82, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IFL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

IOOF 's net flows held up reasonably well in the December quarter, Macquarie notes, despite industry disruption. Advisor migration drove inflows. With the completion of the OnePath acquisition now imminent, attention turns to deal synergies.

The stock has rallied 30% since September and the broker sees no immediate catalysts. Downgrade to Neutral, target falls to $8.00 from $8.10.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.90 Difference: $0.1
If IFL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.82, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFL as Equal-weight (3) -

Net flows in the December quarter were a positive surprise for Morgan Stanley, supporting a view that flows will be more resilient because of a portfolio of multi-boutique distribution brands that are less tarnished compared with those of AMP ((AMP)).

However, the economic benefits or profitability of the adviser firms coming on board are unclear. Equal-weight rating maintained. Target is $8. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.90 Difference: $0.1
If IFL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.82, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IFL as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett observes the December quarter result was boosted by advice flows from 11 new practices that were brought on board. The broker considers IOOF a polarising stock, with upside if regulatory pressures do not eventuate but downside if headwinds persist.

The company is due to report its first half result on February 18. The broker maintains a Lighten rating and raises the target to $7.70 from $6.75 as the model is rolled forward.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.90 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.82, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IFL as Sell (5) -

Net fund flows of $690m in the second quarter largely reflected higher advice off the back of adviser acquisitions.

UBS assesses IOOF stands out as an attractive destination for planners seeking a dealer group structure, although its ability to monetise growth in advice is less clear.

Sell rating maintained. Target is raised to $6.85 from $6.70.

Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $7.90 Difference: minus $1.05 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.82, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IGO as Underperform (5) -

First half production was solid, in Credit Suisse's view, although there are some small negatives in the outlook.

The second half is expected to be weaker at Tropicana. At Nova costs have been elevated by development but the broker notes these are expected to fall in the second half and meet the guidance range.

Credit Suisse maintains an Underperform rating and $4.65 target.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $6.11 Difference: minus $1.46 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.03, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

IGO's first half result was mixed, the broker notes, with weaker earnings offset by stronger cash flow. Unchanged guidance for production and costs at Nova and Tropicana has disappointed the broker given a strong first half performance, but reflects lower grades at Tropicana in the second half.

The broker has trimmed forecasts as a result. Target falls -3% to $7.10, Outperform retained.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.11 Difference: $0.99
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.03, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Equal-weight (3) -

First half earnings were slightly weaker than Morgan Stanley expected, although the 6c dividend was strong. Grades at Nova have been better than expected while Tropicana was in line.

The broker is seeking growth options for the company and retains an Equal-weight rating and $5.55 target. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $6.11 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.03, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IGO as Lighten (4) -

The company confirmed strong December quarter production numbers with Nova producing 7500t of nickel and IGO's 30% stake in Tropicana producing 134,000 ounces of gold.

Underlying net profit of $120.4m was -17% below Ord Minnett's estimates because of lower revenue and higher exploration charges. Lighten rating and $5.70 target maintained.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $6.11 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.03, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

Costs at Nova in the December quarter were in line with forecasts while Tropicana was better than expected. The company is guiding for FY20 production at Tropicana to be at the lower end of guidance with costs at the upper end of the range.

UBS assesses this implies a -25% downshift in production rates in the second half. Positive attributes to the stock, such as its nickel exposure and low-cost position, appear priced in and the broker retains a Neutral rating and $6.75 target.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $6.11 Difference: $0.64
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.03, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MAI as Add (1) -

The December quarter inflows were soft and an increase in funds under administration was entirely driven by the market.

Morgans notes the strong growth trajectory of the higher-margin business continued.

FY21 and FY22 forecasts are increased by 4%. The broker expects operating leverage to become more pronounced from here on.

Add rating maintained. Target is raised to $0.72 from $0.64.

Target price is $0.72 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.08
If MAI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

The December quarter was softer than Citi expected. The catalyst for an improvement in the second half could be positive news on water supply at Cadia. If rainfall is lacking there is a risk production may be affected in the first half of FY21.

Citi's modelling of water use in the ongoing drought scenario suggests up to a -14% cut to milled tonnage in FY21 if water is not forthcoming. This would affect FY21 estimates for earnings per share by -11%.

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $31.30 from $31.90.

Target price is $31.30 Current Price is $29.44 Difference: $1.86
If NCM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.22, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

The December quarter production was an improvement on the prior quarter yet, at the half-year point, Credit Suisse notes group production is 44% of FY20 guidance, implying improvement in the availability of gold is required to sustain guidance.

This no longer appears possible and management has confirmed it is now expecting production to fall to the lower end of guidance. The broker maintains a Neutral rating and $31.80 target.

Target price is $31.80 Current Price is $29.44 Difference: $2.36
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.22, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCM as Underperform (5) -

Newcrest Mining produced -6% less gold at a 3% higher cost than the broker forecast for the quarter due to weakness at Lihir. FY20 production guidance has been retained but management now assumes the bottom of the range, but this would still need a strong recovery at Lihir, the broker warns.

In the medium term, Newcrest is facing declining production and significant capital projects. Underperform and $20 target retained.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $29.44 Difference: minus $9.44 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.22, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Underweight (5) -

Group production was lower than Morgan Stanley expected in the December quarter. The broker retains an Underweight rating because of the impending fall in production from Cadia in FY21.

Ore from the open pit at Telfer increased which provided a 30% increase in gold production and exploration at the nearby Havieron deposit continues.

A maiden Havieron resource could be delivered in 2020. The broker retains an In-Line industry view and $27 target.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $29.44 Difference: minus $2.44 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.22, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NCM as Hold (3) -

December quarter gold production of 551,115 ounces was up 8% versus the September quarter. Morgans assesses Newcrest Mining is in danger of missing full-year production guidance.

The broker remains concerned about the decreasing grade profile and the impact of water restrictions at Cadia. The broker retains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $31.46 from $33.14.

Target price is $31.46 Current Price is $29.44 Difference: $2.02
If NCM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.22, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Lighten (4) -

The company has downgraded FY20 guidance to the lower end of the 2.38-2.54m ounces range. Cadia produced 240,000 ounces at a cost of US$142/oz (not a typo).

This was a second best quarter on record and beat Ord Minnett's projections by around 10%. However, if it doesn't rain, the broker envisages risks to 2020 production.

Lighten maintained. Target is $28.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $29.44 Difference: minus $1.44 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.22, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NCM as Sell (5) -

Gold production in the December quarter was well below UBS estimates. Costs were ahead. Weaker production is mainly because of lower output at Lihir and Telfer.

Management has signalled that the drought is unlikely to affect FY20 production but, if current conditions persist, there may be an impact by the end of 2020.

UBS retains a Sell rating and reduces the target to $28.00 from $28.50.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $29.44 Difference: minus $1.44 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.22, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NEA as Buy (1) -

While a -10% downgrade to FY20 guidance on the basis of churn two months after providing that guidance is a negative, Citi believes the main issue is the outlook for the business going forward.

The company has signalled its core North American business had a strong second quarter and the first half was affected by a partner cancelling a large contract and two customers in the autonomous vehicle mapping industry reducing or stopping their usage of aerial imagery.

The churn has not been caused by a competitor, the company stressed, but is a function of market conditions.

Buy/High Risk rating and $4.05 price target retained.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $2.35
If NEA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 138% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.27, suggesting upside of 92.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NEA as Overweight (1) -

Elevated churn in the US and a slowdown in Australia remain key concerns and the stock has sold off hard following the downgrade to guidance. Morgan Stanley is not convinced there is a competitive issue.

The broker reduces estimates for earnings per share by -18% for FY20 and -68% for FY21 and lowers the target to $2.30 from $4.20.

While small numbers imply a material move in reported earnings and this metric may be highly relevant to some investors, the broker prefers to pay attention to cash earnings.

Overweight rating and In-Line industry view maintained.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.6
If NEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.27, suggesting upside of 92.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates OGC as Outperform (1) -

The suspension of Didipio continued during the December quarter, with partial production from lower grade stockpiles and no immediate sign of a resolution to the stand-off.

Tight liquidity appears likely to constrain exploration activity, Credit Suisse observes. Outperform rating and $4.75 target maintained.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $1.69
If OGC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 34.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORE as Buy (1) -

December quarter results were in line with expectations and Citi notes FY20 guidance is intact. The broker accounts for lower price realisation that is partly offset by a better cost performance.

Buy/High Risk rating maintained. Target is raised to $4.00 from $3.30.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $0.9
If ORE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.25, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ORE as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse observes the company is making progress on what it can control. Production in the December quarter was marginally ahead of the FY20 budget.

The broker likes the improved cost controls and the prospect of further incremental gains.

The soft macro environment remains the biggest influence on the share price and the risk still appears to the downside.

Credit Suisse maintains an Outperform rating and $4.45 target.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $1.35
If ORE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.25, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORE as Underperform (5) -

Orocobre's production was in line with expectation, while Olaroz saw some healthy cost reductions, the broker notes.

Realised pricing met forecasts and the company will provide pricing guidance shortly, but given hard rock oversupply, the broker sees any price recovery as some way off.

Underperform and $2.00 target retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: minus $1.1 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.25, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORE as Sell (5) -

The company produced 3,586t of lithium carbonate at a cash cost of US$4109/t which Ord Minnett considers a good production performance, beating forecasts by 10%.

The company is looking for the market to improve in the second half of 2020 but the broker finds it hard to envisage too much upside. Sell rating and $2.55 target maintained.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.25, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORE as Neutral (3) -

The December quarter production numbers were below expectations. Pricing was in line with guidance and expected to be similar in the March quarter, at around US$5419/t.

The company expects prices in the lithium market to remain subdued in the short term, with high inventory concealing improvements to demand.

UBS has confirmed that the battery supply chain in China is once again on the move, while on the supply side persistent Chinese supply is putting pressure on prices.

Neutral rating and $2.65 target maintained.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.25, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates QAN as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse expects a weak first half and a recovery in FY21 and considers it too soon to buy the stock. The broker notes the significant risk to travel demand from the coronavirus outbreak.

International travel to Australia may also be affected by the perceived impact of bushfires. The broker reduces the international earnings (EBIT) estimates by -19%.

So long as there is no significant outbreak of coronavirus in Australia, Credit Suisse suspects capacity discipline in the domestic market will offset weaker demand for domestic airline travel by international visitors.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is raised to $6.85 from $6.60.

Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $6.44 Difference: $0.41
If QAN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.42, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REH as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi assesses the domestic housing cycle is bottoming and forecasts a medium-term shortage that will underpin a cyclical recovery.

Along with a strengthening US housing cycle the broker recommends a selectively bullish position.

However, given a stretched valuation and risk to consensus expectations, the broker downgrades Reece Australia to Sell from Neutral. Target is lowered to $10.50 from $11.42.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $11.09 Difference: minus $0.59 (current price is over target).
If REH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RMS as Add (1) -

The company has had a firm start to FY20, meeting production guidance and beating on cost guidance. The production profile is heavily weighted to the second half and Morgans expects significant increases in cash flow.

Moreover, approval of the Greenfinch open pit could result in lower grade stockpiles being displaced. Hold rating maintained. Target is raised to $1.28 from $1.25.

Target price is $1.28 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If RMS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Upon the bank-insurer's first update on bushfires impact earlier this month, Citi analysts had downgraded their rating to Neutral from Buy, while cutting their price target to $14.30 from $14.50. They simultaneously flagged the risk for further reserve releases and that's exactly what Suncorp announced to the market yesterday.

So no surprised faces at the Citi office. The big question is whether we are experiencing one-off factors or something of a more permanent character and Citi is taking the view one-off seems most likely.

The analysts observe Suncorp has declared it has $300m of reinsurance protection for large events plus a separate $200m of protection for total losses above its allowance. Irrespectively, the upcoming interim result is expected to reveal tough operational dynamics, suggest the analysts.

Citi's sector preferences lay with QBE Insurance ((QBE)) and Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)).

Target price is $14.30 Current Price is $12.83 Difference: $1.47
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.35, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SUN as Underperform (5) -

The company expects first half reserve releases between $50-70m. Natural hazards have totalled -$590m in the first half and second half hazards thus far total -$155m.

Credit Suisse appreciates the fact the stock has underperformed the market by around -20% over the last 12 months and the share price allows for recent announcements.

Still, concerns centre on the trajectory of the underlying margin and there is likely to be further risk to the downside.? Underperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $12.50 from $12.75.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $12.83 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.35, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as Underperform (5) -

Suncorp has warned its natural hazard aggregate protection deductible has now fully eroded, following floods, fire and hail. An update on the company's stop-loss cover will be provided with its result next month.

The broker retains Underperform. Target falls to $12.85 from $13.00.

Target price is $12.85 Current Price is $12.83 Difference: $0.02
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.35, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Underweight (5) -

Guidance for first half reserve releases implies -4% downside to Morgan Stanley's FY20 earnings estimates.

Given the substantial reinsurance protection in place there is no change to second half estimates for catastrophe losses.

Underweight rating maintained. In-Line sector view. Price target is reduced to $12.00 from $12.10.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $12.83 Difference: minus $0.83 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.35, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUN as Add (1) -

While FY20 natural hazards are expected to remain within allowances reserve releases will be lower in the first half.

Morgans downgrades estimates for FY20 and FY21 earnings per share by -3-7% on reduced insurance margin forecasts.

The broker believes long-term value is re-emerging for Suncorp at current levels and maintains an Add rating. Target is reduced to $13.85 from $14.27.

Target price is $13.85 Current Price is $12.83 Difference: $1.02
If SUN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.35, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett remains concerned going into the company's results about whether underlying margins are under excessive pressure following a desire to turnaround volumes.

Suncorp has reaffirmed natural perils costs for the first half of $519m and maintained its natural hazard allowances of $820m for FY20. Suncorp is also expecting lower reserve releases in the first half.

Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $13.96 from $13.97.

Target price is $13.96 Current Price is $12.83 Difference: $1.13
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.35, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Buy (1) -

While the FY20 natural peril outlook remains within the $820m budget, UBS notes first half reserve releases are lower than expected.

This is attributed, among other things, to one-off top-ups across the Australian commercial bodily injury portfolio.

The broker tempers its outlook but believes Suncorp is best placed across the domestic general insurers in regard to both reserve releases and catastrophe costs.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $14.00 from $14.30.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $12.83 Difference: $1.17
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.35, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

Transurban has submitted an environmental impact study for a Western Harbour Tunnel, separate to the Beach Link, connecting Rozelle to Balgowlah in Sydney. The project by itself is not supported, the broker notes, even with a significant lift in toll. The project would be more significant to the WestConnex but will need to be tied to the Sydney Harbour Tunnel/Bridge to provide cross-funding.

The stock's valuation is stretched, the broker concedes, but option value in the project pipeline is building. One element of concern is dividend coverage, given funding demand for all the projects. Neutral and $14.82 target retained.

Target price is $14.82 Current Price is $15.70 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.33, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates has downgraded earnings guidance by -10% due to a wine glut and aggressive discounting in the US. The issue is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, Macquarie warns. Risks are also increasing to the downside due to the coronavirus.

The broker has cut earnings forecasts by around -20% and lowered its target to $13.30 from $19.97. Downgrade to Neutral.

Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $13.03 Difference: $0.27
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.58, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Hold (3) -

The company has reported private labelling is a rising risk in the US as well as Australia and the UK. Ord Minnett estimates commercial wine accounts for around 50% of volumes in the US.

As a result of the private-label trend Treasury Wine is restructuring its commercial division. De-merger and divestments have been ruled out previously so an internal process is occurring.

Growth drivers include premiumisation and the broker believes the company is well-positioned to leverage the trend. Hold rating and $15 target maintained.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.03 Difference: $1.97
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.58, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources