Australian Broker Call

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March 12, 2026

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CRN - Coronado Global Resources Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
GQG - GQG Partners Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate Morgans
LYC - Lynas Rare Earths Upgrade to Hold from Sell Bell Potter
A4N  ALPHA HPA LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $0.55

Macquarie rates A4N as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie observes 98% of shares have voted in favour of the issuance of a second tranche of placement, equating to an additional 160m Alpha HPA shares raising $120m.

This will complete the funding and has seen the share price decline by -22% over the past month as the market absorbs the equity issuance for the Stage 2 project.

The analyst has lifted its basket price forecast to US$27/kg by FY31 as semiconductor demand strengthens.

FY26 earnings forecasts are lifted by 7% on lower expected stage 1 losses, minor adjustments for FY27, and FY28-30 forecasts trimmed by 3-5%, reflecting slightly lower operating earnings and higher interest costs from royalties.

The broker is on research restriction, so no target price or rating.

Current Price is $0.55. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.14.

Forecast for FY27:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 19.46.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AAI  ALCOA CORPORATION

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina

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Overnight Price: $86.73

UBS rates AAI as Neutral (3) -

UBS is more constructive on aluminium and cautious on alumina following Middle East conflict related logistics disruptions, which could threaten around 10% of global smelting capacity in the Gulf and lift aluminium premiums in the US and Europe.

The broker expects disruptions to reduce alumina demand while tightening aluminium markets, creating favourable relative pricing for aluminium producers such as Alcoa.

Higher gas prices following the conflict are also supporting thermal coal prices in the near term, though UBS still expects thermal coal demand to decline over the medium term with prices trending back below US$100/t.

Metallurgical coal prices are expected to remain supported above US$200/t near term due to weather risks and Indian demand growth, with UBS forecasting about US$220/t in 2027. 

Target price on Alcoa is raised to $95 from $71 with a Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $86.73 Difference: $8.27
If AAI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

UBS forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 1081.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.02.

Forecast for FY26:

UBS forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 1137.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.62.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRE  BRAZILIAN RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals

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Overnight Price: $5.63

Ord Minnett rates BRE as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights Brazilian Rare Earths’ Sulista rare earth project update shows mineralisation strike length expanding to 17km from 10km following new exploration surveys

Multiple walk-up drill targets and early drilling across Sulista East are noted, with grades around 2-5% total rare earth oxides (TREO) versus 13-16% at Monte Alto.

The broker points out Sulista forms part of the Rocha da Rocha province, hosting high-grade rare earth mineralisation alongside around 86mt bauxite potentially suitable for direct export.

Speculative Buy rating and $7.50 target are kept.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $5.63 Difference: $1.87
If BRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 34.12.

Forecast for FY27:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 32.36.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BXB  BRAMBLES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $22.61

UBS rates BXB as Neutral (3) -

UBS expects Brambles’ sales growth to track toward the lower end of FY26 guidance as soft FMCG volumes and weak like for like pallet demand offset modest restocking and new business wins.

Nielsen data indicates US food and household product volumes remain negative y/y, while CHEP volumes were flat in 1H26 as contract gains offset weaker underlying demand.

The analyst forecasts FY26 constant currency revenue growth of around 3%, assuming like for like volumes recover in 2H26 supported by easier comparables and US World Cup related activity.

Neutral rating and $25.40 target unchanged.

Target price is $25.40 Current Price is $22.61 Difference: $2.79
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.79, suggesting upside of 19.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 71.00 cents and EPS of 109.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Forecast for FY27:

UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 115.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.1, implying annual growth of 9.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CKF  COLLINS FOODS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $9.43

Citi rates CKF as Buy (1) -

Collins Foods’ acquisition of eight KFC restaurants in Bavaria expands its German footprint, Citi notes, offering an entry into another state and supporting a faster European network rollout.

The broker views the transaction as strategically positive despite limited near-term earnings contribution, given potential for longer-term store expansion.

Separately, management's trading update indicates to the broker improving momentum in Germany, with same-store sales rising to 5.1% over the past 14 weeks from 2.3% earlier in the second half.

It's felt this improvement indicates strong operational execution in Germany and aligns with recent industry trends reported by AmRest.

Australia same-store sales softened slightly to 3.1% over the past 14 weeks from 3.6% earlier in the period.

FY26 profit guidance was reiterated for mid-to-high teens growth, broadly consistent with consensus expectations.

Buy rating and $12.85 target price retained.

Target price is $12.85 Current Price is $9.43 Difference: $3.42
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.06, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 29.90 cents and EPS of 50.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.4, implying annual growth of 585.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Forecast for FY27:

Citi forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 34.80 cents and EPS of 57.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of 17.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN  CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC

Coal

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Overnight Price: $0.36

UBS rates CRN as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS is more constructive on aluminium and cautious on alumina following Middle East conflict related logistics disruptions, which could threaten around 10% of global smelting capacity in the Gulf and lift aluminium premiums in the US and Europe.

The broker expects disruptions to reduce alumina demand while tightening aluminium markets, creating favourable relative pricing for aluminium producers such as Alcoa.

Higher gas prices following the conflict are also supporting thermal coal prices in the near term, though UBS still expects thermal coal demand to decline over the medium term with prices trending back below US$100/t.

Metallurgical coal prices are expected to remain supported above US$200/t near term due to weather risks and Indian demand growth, with the analyst forecasting about US$220/t in 2027.

Coronado Global Resources is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target price lifts to 40c from 46c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.04
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.41, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY27:

UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.2, implying annual growth of 191.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FCL  FINEOS CORPORATION HOLDINGS PLC

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $2.46

Citi rates FCL as Buy (1) -

Fineos Corporation’s FY25 result on February 25 featured stronger-than-expected revenue guidance despite currency headwinds, Citi recaps, with growth forecast to accelerate to around 8% in FY26.

The broker highlights stronger conversion from annual recurring revenue (ARR) into subscription revenue, supported by existing clients expanding usage across the platform.

Policy and Billing remains a key opportunity, the analysts add, as the full AdminSuite cloud release should support cross-selling to existing North American insurers.

The FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecast is increased by 5% with potential upside flagged to FY27 estimates if subscription revenue reaches 65% of group revenue.

Buy. Target $3.25.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $0.79
If FCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMG  GOODMAN GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $27.07

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Australian real estate fundamentals remain strong following the February reporting season, Citi suggests, with retail, residential, self-storage, data centres and industrial assets showing solid operating momentum.

The broker highlights cap rates continue to compress, supporting higher asset valuations and stronger balance sheets across the sector.

Leasing spreads are considered favourable reflecting strong landlord negotiating power and resilient tenant demand.

Citi sees improving capital flows and potential asset value gains over the next 12-18 months, though higher bond yields and domestic inflation remain key near-term risks.

The $40 target and Buy rating for Goodman Group are unchanged.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $27.07 Difference: $12.93
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.05, suggesting upside of 37.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 131.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.5, implying annual growth of 51.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

Forecast for FY27:

Citi forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 144.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.2, implying annual growth of 10.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GQG  GQG PARTNERS INC

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $1.81

Morgans rates GQG as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Morgans raises its target price for GQG Partners to $2.03 from $1.89 and upgrades to Buy from Accumulate due to an improved investment performance.

The February funds under management (FUM) update revealed FUM rising 4.3% month-on-month to US$172.9bn. It's noted investment gains of US$10.5bn offset net outflows of -US$3.2bn, driving overall FUM growth despite continued flow pressure.

The broker suggests recent performance improvements may signal early signs of a turnaround, though sustained flow stabilisation remains key. FY26 and FY27 EPS forecasts are raised by by 1% and 2%, respectively, on higher FUM assumptions.

Target price is $2.03 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: $0.225
If GQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY27:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 21.29 cents and EPS of 24.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

Forecast for FY28:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 21.29 cents and EPS of 24.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.9, implying annual growth of -2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates GQG as Buy (1) -

GQG Partners reported record FUM of US$172.9bn in February, rising 4.3% m/m on strong market returns despite continued net outflows of -US$3.2bn.

UBS highlights US equity flows improved as recent performance strengthened, generating around 14% alpha over the past four months, though Emerging Markets remains a headwind with outflows accelerating to a record -$1.3bn.

UBS expects March FUM to fall to around US$162bn as market declines offset positive alpha across strategies.

EPS forecasts slips by -5% for FY26 and -7% for FY27 to reflect the February update and weaker early March market performance.

Buy rated with the target price reduced to $2.00 from $2.08.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: $0.195
If GQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY27:

UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 19.77 cents and EPS of 22.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

Forecast for FY28:

UBS forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 19.77 cents and EPS of 21.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.9, implying annual growth of -2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LYC  LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals

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Overnight Price: $20.59

Bell Potter rates LYC as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Lynas Rare Earths has extended the Japan Australia Rare Earths agreement to 2038. The extended agreement allows for deliveries of up to 7200tpa of niobium Pr with firm commitments of 5000tpa.

While welcoming the announcement, Bell Potter continues to envisage risks around the valuation premium and multiple for the stock which is "pricing in perfection in an imperfect world".

The announcement safeguards a substantial portion of revenue and earnings and reduces the impact of adverse price swings should additional supply enter the market in coming years. The broker upgrades to Hold from Sell and raises the target to $19.00 from $11.60.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $20.59 Difference: minus $1.59 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.23, suggesting downside of -18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 41.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.4, implying annual growth of 4064.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.8.

Forecast for FY27:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 73.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.6, implying annual growth of 96.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates LYC as Sell (5) -

Lynas Rare Earths has secured a revised long-term supply agreement with Japan, locking in sales of 5ktpa NdPr and half of heavy rare earth oxide output.

Ord Minnett highlights a floor price of US$110/kg for NdPr through to 2038 alongside firm offtake of 50% of heavy rare earth oxide supply for Japanese industrial consumers.

The agreement is considered strategically important as Japan secures non-China supply, while Lynas strengthens its position amid rising geopolitical competition in rare earths.

Further catalysts are anticipated from potential ore supply agreements, Malaysian magnet manufacturing expansion and US magnet supply partnerships.

Ord Minnett retains a Sell rating and $14 target for Lynas.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $20.59 Difference: minus $6.59 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.23, suggesting downside of -18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 74.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.4, implying annual growth of 4064.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.8.

Forecast for FY27:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 58.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.6, implying annual growth of 96.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates LYC as Buy (1) -

UBS argues the enhanced Lynas Rare Earths agreement with JARE marks another step in the bifurcation of Western rare earth supply chains away from China.

The broker upgrades its NdPr price forecasts by 19%–34% through 2029 and lifts the long term assumption to US$120/kg from US$100/kg, reflecting the new US$110/kg floor price under the JARE offtake agreement.

Forecast changes drive EPS upgrades of 24–49% across FY26–FY28. UBS also attributes additional valuation upside to Lynas’ downstream magnet strategy via the planned JS Link JV in Malaysia, adding about $2.80/sh to valuation.

Buy retained, target price increased to $23.90 from $17.70

Target price is $23.90 Current Price is $20.59 Difference: $3.31
If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.23, suggesting downside of -18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.4, implying annual growth of 4064.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.8.

Forecast for FY27:

UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 79.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.6, implying annual growth of 96.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OBM  ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $1.42

Macquarie rates OBM as Outperform (1) -

Post the significant rise in the Davyhurst mineral resource estimate to 50.3mt at 2.0g/t for 3.3moz, a rise of 57%, Macquarie lifts its outlook for Ora Banda Mining.

The analyst assumes a 3mtpa processing plant as a base case, ramping up from 3Q28 onwards versus the previous forecast of a circa 1.7mtpa run rate.

Target price is raised 13% to $1.70 with an Outperform rating retained. No change to FY26 EPS forecast, with FY27 lowered by -12% due to slightly lower production and capex for the new Davyhurst mill.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $0.285
If OBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.22.

Forecast for FY27:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.10.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNR  PANTORO GOLD LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $3.87

Morgans rates PNR as Buy (1) -

Pantoro Gold delivered a first half result where revenue was up 56% and broadly in line with Morgans, yet production was downgraded. Updated production forecast of 86-92,000 ounces is considerably lower than expected (previously 100-110,000).

The downgrade reflects rainfall disruptions from ex Tropical Cyclone Mitchell and labour availability constraints. The broker is disappointed with the guidance downgrade while the continued sporadic production at Norseman is becoming a concern.

Recent share price weakness has reset the valuation entry point, and with gold prices elevated, the broker still assesses the leverage to spot prices is significant for an unhedged and debt-free producer.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $6.53 from $6.83.

Target price is $6.53 Current Price is $3.87 Difference: $2.66
If PNR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.56, suggesting upside of 78.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.1, implying annual growth of 299.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2.

Forecast for FY27:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.2, implying annual growth of 30.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA  REA GROUP LIMITED

Online media & mobile platforms

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Overnight Price: $169.49

Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -

Citi points out new listings were up 1% in February after 10 months of consecutive year-on-year declines. January and February are seasonally low months with volumes starting to rise from March and peaking just before Easter.

Rate hikes may be a headwind and Citi economists expect a hike in March as well as May, largely factored into forecasts.

The two largest and highest yielding markets, Melbourne and Sydney, continue to outperform and the broker considers this positive for yield, signalling upside for REA Group's yield growth guidance. Buy rating. Target is $199.

Target price is $199.00 Current Price is $169.49 Difference: $29.51
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $224.84, suggesting upside of 33.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 483.7, implying annual growth of -5.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 283.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.7.

Forecast for FY27:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 563.7, implying annual growth of 16.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 330.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining

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Overnight Price: $4.36

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

UBS is more constructive on aluminium and cautious on alumina following Middle East conflict related logistics disruptions, which could threaten around 10% of global smelting capacity in the Gulf and lift aluminium premiums in the US and Europe. 

The broker expects disruptions to reduce alumina demand while tightening aluminium markets, creating favourable relative pricing for aluminium producers such as Alcoa. 

Higher gas prices following the conflict are also supporting thermal coal prices in the near term, though UBS still expects thermal coal demand to decline over the medium term with prices trending back below US$100/t. 

Metallurgical coal prices are expected to remain supported above US$200/t near term due to weather risks and Indian demand growth, with UBS forecasting about US$220/t in 2027. 

Target price on South32 raised to $5.20 from $5.10. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: $0.84
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 13.69 cents and EPS of 38.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY27:

UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 22.81 cents and EPS of 62.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of 35.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL  SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $21.51

Ord Minnett rates SHL as Hold (3) -

Sonic Healthcare faces medium-term risk from potential German medical fee reforms, Ord Minnett cautions. These changes relate to the private health insurance schedule covering consultation and laboratory services.

The broker estimates laboratory fee cuts averaging around -20% under possible reforms. It's noted the fee schedule for physicians in Germany (GOA) has reimbursements representing roughly one-third of German division revenue and about 8% of group revenue.

Ord Minnett expects possible implementation from January 2028, while final legislation details may emerge after October as political approval processes progress.

The broker's profit forecast in FY29 could fall by between -4%-27% depending on the final structure, while industry consolidation may create acquisition opportunities for larger operators.

Hold rating and $24.00 target retained.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $21.51 Difference: $2.49
If SHL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.41, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 124.3, implying annual growth of 16.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY27:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 136.4, implying annual growth of 9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKO  SERKO LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $1.67

Ord Minnett rates SKO as Buy (1) -

Serko’s investor day highlighted strategy execution progress, Ord Minnett reports, with FY26 revenue guidance narrowed to NZ$119m-NZ$121m from NZ$115m-NZ$123m previously.

Total spend guidance also tightened to -NZ$$121m-NZ$123m from -NZ$124m-NZ$128m, implying to the broker improved cost discipline. FY30 revenue guidance remains at NZ$250m.

Management outlined a staged US growth strategy beginning with lower-complexity travel programs via Booking.com for Business before expanding into broader corporate travel segments.

The broker's earnings (EBITDA) forecasts rise following lower expected operating costs and capital expenditure, while revenue estimates remain unchanged.

Ord Minnett cuts its target price to $4.98 from $5.00 and retains a Buy rating on Serko.

Target price is $4.98 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: $3.31
If SKO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 198% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.22, suggesting upside of 147.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 33.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -5.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY27:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 81.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SNZ  SUMMERSET GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

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Overnight Price: $8.50

UBS rates SNZ as Buy (1) -

UBS notes modest improvement in New Zealand retirement village unit pricing and sales activity, supported by improving residential market dynamics and stronger sales execution by operators.

Quarterly unit price inflation rose 0.6% across UBS Evidence Lab data, with Summerset Group up 0.7% q/q and Ryman Healthcare up 0.6%, implying y/y growth of 1.7% and 0.8% respectively.

There has also been a continued improvement in retirement village unit sales, supported by a 12% y/y increase in rolling residential sales volumes and rising housing listings, which may signal improving vendor confidence.

The broker retains a positive sector view despite recent share price weakness, which UBS attributes partly to softer housing data and concerns around potential interest rate increases.

 Buy rating unchanged, target set at NZ$15.00.

Current Price is $8.50. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY27:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.5, implying annual growth of 9.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLX  TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $10.76

Bell Potter rates TLX as Buy (1) -

Telix Pharmaceuticals has published safety and dosimetric data from part 1 of the ProstACT global study. The trial is targeting men with mCRPC where the primary endpoint is progression free survival.

Bell Potter notes the good news is there were no new safety signs and specific issues appear manageable.  The full data package will be discussed with the US FDA in coming weeks.

The broker expects the FDA will take a neutral view on the data and allow part 2 to commence recruitment. Buy rating and $19 target maintained.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $10.76 Difference: $8.24
If TLX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.84, suggesting upside of 130.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 707.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -10.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY27:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 37.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 60.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VGL  VISTA GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $1.50

Macquarie rates VGL as Neutral (3) -

Vista International's direct sites fell -2.9% for the year to December 2025, and management places global market share (ex RIC), Macquarie explains, at 46% over that period.

The analyst estimates North American box office attendance declined by -3% y/y and drops its 100% platform site assumption by -7% to 4,614, a 3% rise on 2025 for some market share gain but below Vista's target of 6,000 sites.

Maintenance output is now assumed at 2.4x, real from FY29, against 3.0x previously.

Neutral rating unchanged. Target downgraded to NZ$1.82 from NZ$3.20, with EPS forecasts cut by -19% and -39% for FY26/FY27, respectively, on lower platform site and maintenance outputs.

Current Price is $1.50. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 107.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.7.

Forecast for FY27:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.2, implying annual growth of 13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WHC  WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

Coal

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Overnight Price: $8.71

UBS rates WHC as Sell (5) -

UBS is more constructive on aluminium and cautious on alumina following Middle East conflict related logistics disruptions, which could threaten around 10% of global smelting capacity in the Gulf and lift aluminium premiums in the US and Europe. 

The broker expects disruptions to reduce alumina demand while tightening aluminium markets, creating favourable relative pricing for aluminium producers such as Alcoa. 

Higher gas prices following the conflict are also supporting thermal coal prices in the near term, though UBS still expects thermal coal demand to decline over the medium term with prices trending back below US$100/t. 

Metallurgical coal prices are expected to remain supported above US$200/t near term due to weather risks and Indian demand growth, with UBS forecasting about US$220/t in 2027. 

Sell rating retained for Whitehaven Coal with a lift in target to $7.90 from $7.70.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $8.71 Difference: minus $0.81 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.78, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of -63.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Forecast for FY27:

UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 77.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.9, implying annual growth of 67.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AAI Alcoa $90.46 UBS 95.00 71.00 33.80%
CRN Coronado Global Resources $0.35 UBS 0.40 0.36 11.11%
GQG GQG Partners $1.76 Morgans 2.03 1.89 7.41%
UBS 2.00 2.05 -2.44%
LYC Lynas Rare Earths $21.17 Bell Potter 19.00 11.60 63.79%
UBS 23.90 17.70 35.03%
OBM Ora Banda Mining $1.44 Macquarie 1.70 1.50 13.33%
PNR Pantoro Gold $3.68 Morgans 6.53 6.83 -4.39%
REA REA Group $167.93 Citi 199.00 222.70 -10.64%
S32 South32 $4.32 UBS 5.20 5.10 1.96%
SHL Sonic Healthcare $21.11 Ord Minnett 24.00 23.97 0.13%
SKO Serko $1.70 Ord Minnett 4.98 5.00 -0.40%
WHC Whitehaven Coal $9.29 UBS 7.90 7.70 2.60%
Summaries
A4N Alpha HPA No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.55
AAI Alcoa Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $86.73
BRE Brazilian Rare Earths Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.63
BXB Brambles Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $22.61
CKF Collins Foods Buy - Citi Overnight Price $9.43
CRN Coronado Global Resources Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS Overnight Price $0.36
FCL Fineos Corp Buy - Citi Overnight Price $2.46
GMG Goodman Group Buy - Citi Overnight Price $27.07
GQG GQG Partners Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate - Morgans Overnight Price $1.81
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $1.81
LYC Lynas Rare Earths Upgrade to Hold from Sell - Bell Potter Overnight Price $20.59
Sell - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $20.59
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $20.59
OBM Ora Banda Mining Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.42
PNR Pantoro Gold Buy - Morgans Overnight Price $3.87
REA REA Group Buy - Citi Overnight Price $169.49
S32 South32 Buy - UBS Overnight Price $4.36
SHL Sonic Healthcare Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $21.51
SKO Serko Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.67
SNZ Summerset Group Buy - UBS Overnight Price $8.50
TLX Telix Pharmaceuticals Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $10.76
VGL Vista International Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.50
WHC Whitehaven Coal Sell - UBS Overnight Price $8.71
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

14

3. Hold

6

5. Sell

2

Thursday 12 March 2026

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.