Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates A1M as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

Under the broker's base metals coverage, there are moderate increases to the analysts' target prices for companies more exposed to gold and zinc.

The target for AIC Mines remains at 60c. Buy.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.27
If A1M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates A2M as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie believes the a2 Milk Co share price has risen too far (by 20%) in response to Chinese stimulus measures though also sees limited downside catalysts.

In a positive move, according to the analyst, management continues to flag supply-chain investment to help accelerate access
to China Labels.

Neutral retained. Target is raised to $5.90 from $5.60.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $6.36 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.28, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AFG as Neutral (3) -

Australian Finance Group's 1Q total lodgements rose by 15.8% year-on-year, observes Macquarie.

Of $24.2bn in residential lodgements for the quarter, $1.7bn related to this ‘AFG Home Loan’ product which comprises the higher-margin AFG Securitisation and AFG White Label product, explains the analyst.

No changes to Macquarie's forecasts. The Neutral rating and $1.61 are maintained.

Target price is $1.61 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If AFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AIA as Buy (1) -

Domestic passenger numbers for Auckland International Airport for September slightly missed expectations, observes Citi, but International numbers increased over July to September, in line with management's FY25 PAX growth guidance for 4%.

The International outcome was even more meritorious given a -2% reduction in seat capacity in September, explain the analysts.

The stock remains Buy rated with an NZ$8.70 target price.

Current Price is $6.78. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AIS as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

Under the broker's base metals coverage, there are moderate increases to the analysts' target prices for companies more exposed to gold and zinc.

The target for Aeris Resources (some gold exposure) rises to 25c from 22c. Hold.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.025
If AIS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.25, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -

While 3Q earnings (EBIT) for Ampol  were "very soft" according to Macquarie, a refining margin recovery is now coming through and refining balances are stronger in 2025. Also, non-refining businesses are performing strongly, highlights the analyst.

A larger-than-anticipated Trade and Investment (T&I) impact meant the 3Q Lytton Refiner Margin (LRM) was well below the broker's forecast.

The broker's Outperform rating is retained due to the current undemanding trading multiple. The target falls by -9.8% to $32.25.

Target price is $32.25 Current Price is $28.46 Difference: $3.79
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.96, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley is expecting a "negative" reaction to Ampol's 3Q24 trading update. The Lytton refiner margin of US$1.48/bbl fell -83% on the previous quarter which the broker highlights is well below forecasts and consensus. There was a corresponding -$100m impact to EBIT.

Looking to 4Q24, the company is planning on reduced refining due to availability of the catalytic cracking unit. Convenience and NZ businesses are in line with 1H24 and management are seeking to extract -$50m in costs in 2025.

No change to $33 target price. Equal-weight. Sector call In-Line.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $28.46 Difference: $4.54
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.96, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes an extended Lytton outage had a -$100m impact on EBIT at the 3Q2024 trading update which is expected to remove the opportunity of a special dividend in February 2025 results.

The broker notes convenience stores performed well with increased shop sales. NZ division came in line with 1H24 trading results.

Ord Minnett lowers 2024 EPS forecasts for reduced refinery production and lifts 2025 EPS by 3%.

Due to expected -$50m cost out savings in FY25, the broker raises the target price to $36.50, a lift of 3%. Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $28.46 Difference: $8.04
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.96, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALD as Neutral (3) -

Ampol reported a softer 3Q24 trading update with a planned Lytton shutdown running over by 10-days which resulted in lower-than-expected production, UBS notes with a decline in the refining margin to US$1.48/bbl compared to expectations of over US$8/bbl.

Another shutdown in November is expected with problems in the catalytic cracker needing repair work.

UBS cuts EPS forecasts by -45% for 2024 and -3% for 2025.

Neutral rating unchanged. Target price is lowered to $30.10 from $31.60.

Target price is $30.10 Current Price is $28.46 Difference: $1.64
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.96, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALK as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

The broker increases gold forecast by 18% in FY25 and 15% in FY26 with an unchanged copper price forecast. 

Ord Minnett observes mid-small cap gold companies remain attractively valued and have under-performed the gold price by -16% in 2024. This is expected to "unwind" with inflation easing and improving labour market conditions.

The broker lifts EPS forecasts for Alkane Resources by 24% in FY25 and 29% in FY26.

Hold rating remains with a higher target price of 55c from 50c.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.05
If ALK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMI as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

Under the broker's base metals coverage, there are moderate increases to the analysts' target prices for companies more exposed to gold and zinc.

The target for Aurelia Metals (exposure to gold) rises to 27c from 26c.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.07
If AMI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APX as Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten (2) -

Appen completed a $50m institutional share placement at $1.92 per share with plans to raise another $5m from retail investors.

The funds will be used to strengthen the balance sheet, Ord Minnett highlights. The company's trading update revealed a rise in revenue of 35% from a year earlier to US$54.1m, which excludes the Google contract with an improvement in gross margin to 41.2% from 33.6%.

Ord Minnett raises EPS forecasts by 17% in FY25 and 45% in FY25 post the raisings, and believes there is evidence of a turnaround in the company's fortunes.

The stock is upgraded to Accumulate from Lighten with a $2.50 target price, up from $1.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.27
If APX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

In an initial look at today's trading update by Bapcor at its AGM, Citi assesses consensus earnings downgrade potential.

A 0.7% increase in total sales for Q1 (Consensus 1H forecast was 2%) implies a slowdown to -3.7% in the last eight weeks from 7.7% in the first five weeks of the period, explains the broker.

Management notes the retail performance, which the analyst notes accounted for 18% of FY24 earnings (EBITDA) is “more challenged”.

Target $5.04. Neutral.

Target price is $5.04 Current Price is $5.19 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.26, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BBN as Neutral, High Risk (3) -

Improving supplier terms resulted in better-than-expected 1Q gross margins for Baby Bunting, explains Citi, outweighing weaker-than-expected sales momentum.

The broker raises FY25 and FY26 profit forecasts by 6% and 2%, respectively. 

The analysts' FY25 profit forecast now lands towards the top end of the $9.5-12.5m guidance range.

Neutral/High Risk retained. Target is raised to $1.98 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.98 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: $0.095
If BBN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BBN as Neutral (3) -

While sales growth for Baby Bunting has accelerated into FY25, Macquarie cautions the 1Q is cycling a weaker previous corresponding period and the analyst sees significant risk to gross margin guidance of 40%.

Moderating from 2% in the first seven weeks of the new financial year, 1Q same store sales growth increased by 0.6%, while the gross margin of 40.3% was a 240bps increase on the previous corresponding period.

Management maintained FY25 underlying profit guidance.

The Neutral rating and $1.65 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: minus $0.235 (current price is over target).
If BBN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BBN as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Baby Bunting offered a trading update at its AGM with sales rising 2.4% for the period ending Oct 13, Ord Minnett observes. This is a slight weakening in momentum from the first seven weeks of 3.5% sales expansion.

Management highlighted gross profit margin at 40.3% for 1Q25 which is up from 36.8% in FY24. FY25 profit guidance has been retained.

With the first signs of a recovery, Ord Minnett upgrades the stock to Accumulate from Hold.

Target price is also raised to $2.15 from $1.60.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: $0.265
If BBN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOQ as Sell (5) -

Today's FY24 reported cash earnings for Bank of Queensland exceeded Citi and consensus forecasts by 3% and 5%, respectively.

In an early assessment, the broker observes the bottom line was boosted by a very low bad debt charge, resulting in a more modest underlying profit beat of between 1-2%.

Guidance for "broadly flat" costs in FY25 comes a year earlier-than-anticipated, and implies to the analyst a significant deceleration from FY24's 6% cost growth. Consensus was expecting around 3-4% cost growth, highlights Citi.

Sell rating. Target $5.05.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $6.27 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.38, suggesting downside of -19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOQ as Sell (5) -

In reviewing today's "okay" FY24 result for Bank of Queensland, UBS initially assesses the 2H performance was not as bad as expected and signs of progress are beginning to emerge.

Growth in lending and earnings in the 2H was led by the Business Banking division, highlight the analysts.

Pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) beat the consensus forecast by 2.8% while the net interest margin (NIM) of 1.57% was higher than the anticipated 1.54%.

The final dividend of 17c was also higher than UBS forecast for 15.6c and consensus at 14.3c.

Sell rating. Target $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $6.27 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.38, suggesting downside of -19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

Regarding rare earth oxides (REO) coverage, the broker notes NdPr prices climbed from August and have settled at around US$60/kg on buying by Chinese magnet factories ahead of peak consumer season in September and October.

Since September, prices rose due to Myanmar REO supply being cut-off when the civil war impacted the mining region, explain the analysts.

Ord Minnett's price forecasts for NdPr, Dy and Tb prices from December this year to June 2025 rise in response to expected tightening of supply.

For Brazilian Rare Earths, the Speculative Buy rating and $7.00 target are unchanged.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $2.64 Difference: $4.36
If BRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 165% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BRG as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -

Citi initiates research coverage on Breville Group with a Neutral rating. While a high-quality company with multiple growth drivers, the analysts baulk at the current valuation premium to other high growth peers under coverage.

The broker also notes competition with strong R&D capabilities is rising in the coffee category with SharkNinja, Whirlpool, Hamilton Beach Brands all revealing intentions to launch espresso machines, a core product for Breville.

The aforementioned growth drivers for Breville include new product development, geographic expansion, and ongoing coffee market tailwinds, explains Citi.

A $36.51 target is set.

Target price is $36.51 Current Price is $36.10 Difference: $0.41
If BRG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.73, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COE as Hold (3) -

Cooper Energy reported stronger than expected results due to a robust 1Q25 from the Orbost gas plant which is operating near capacity on a more regular basis, the analyst at Bell Potter highlights.

Quarterly gas production and sales both exceeded the broker's forecasts, while Otway and Cooper basins continue to reflect slightly weaker results as the fields decline.

The company confirmed it will not move ahead with the three well program with East Coast Supply Project (Otway basin) without a partner and remains in discussions with Mitsui.

Bell Potter rates the stock as Hold with an unchanged target price of 23c. The analyst lifts EBITDA estimates by 8% in FY26.

Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.02
If COE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie lowers its target for Cooper Energy by -10% to 28c given lower-than-expected 1Q revenue, lower assumed spot gas prices and after allowing for lower 3Q Orbost volumes.

The broker assesses "good" 1Q gas production offset by lower gas pricing and oil production.

Declining debt levels should support a share price re-rating, suggests the analyst. Outperform.

The broker lauds huge progress on Orbost improvements.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.07
If COE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COE as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett observes Cooper Energy reported better than expected 1Q25 production and sales with revenue below the broker's forecasts due to a lower realised spot price than estimated.

Management did not change FY25 guidance, and the analyst expects FY25 production of 4.4mmboe which is above guidance at 3.8-4.2mmboe.

Target price of 24c and Hold rating are unchanged.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.03
If COE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CRN as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

Relating to the broker's coal coverage, the near-term price forecast for metallurgical coal is lowered in line with recent market softness, while the medium-term forecast is increased to more closely align with consensus.

The thermal coal price forecast is increased to reflect recent appreciation and to be more in line with medium-term consensus, explain the analysts.

The target for Coronado Global Resources falls to $1.25 from $1.55. Ord Minnett incorporates the recent downgrade to guidance for production and costs, as well as the senior secured note that was refinanced in early-October. Accumulate.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.085
If CRN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.66, suggesting upside of 41.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's first take on Evolution Mining's 1Q25 gold production is it is 3% better than forecast and above consensus estimates with copper production 1% higher than expected and 5% above consensus.

Management retained FY25 guidance. Cash rose $81m over the quarter with net debt estimated to have declined to around $1.4bn from $1.5bn at the end of 4Q24.

All-in-sustaining-costs were 4% above expectations but met consensus estimates. 

Macquarie is reviewing forecasts.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.69 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

The broker increases gold forecast by 18% in FY25 and 15% in FY26 with an unchanged copper price forecast. 

Ord Minnett observes mid-small cap gold companies remain attractively valued and have under-performed the gold price by -16% in 2024. This is expected to "unwind" with inflation easing and improving labour market conditions.

The broker raises EPS forecasts by 27% and 53% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Evolution Mining is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. Target price is lifted to $4.70 from $4.15.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.69 Difference: $0.01
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMD as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

The broker increases gold forecast by 18% in FY25 and 15% in FY26 with an unchanged copper price forecast. 

Ord Minnett observes mid-small cap gold companies remain attractively valued and have under-performed the gold price by -16% in 2024. This is expected to "unwind" with inflation easing and improving labour market conditions.

The broker lifts EPS estimates by 34% in FY25 and 54% in FY26.

Target price is raised to $2.35 from $2. Genesis Minerals is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.17
If GMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.52, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GOR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

The broker increases gold forecast by 18% in FY25 and 15% in FY26 with an unchanged copper price forecast. 

Ord Minnett observes mid-small cap gold companies remain attractively valued and have under-performed the gold price by -16% in 2024. This is expected to "unwind" with inflation easing and improving labour market conditions.

EPS forecasts for Gold Road Resources are raised by 9% in FY25 and 36% in FY26 with the analyst looking to a notable improvement in the ramp up of the open pit mine in the upcoming quarterly report on Oct 30.

Buy rating unchanged. Target price lifts to $2.10 from $1.85.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: $0.28
If GOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HAS as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

Regarding rare earth oxides (REO) coverage, the broker notes NdPr prices climbed from August and have settled at around US$60/kg on buying by Chinese magnet factories ahead of peak consumer season in September and October.

Since September, prices rose due to Myanmar REO supply being cut-off when the civil war impacted the mining region, explain the analysts.

Ord Minnett's price forecasts for NdPr, Dy and Tb prices from December this year to June 2025 rise in response to expected tightening of supply.

For Hastings Technology Metals, the Hold rating and 46c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.17
If HAS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HLO as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners suggests the ABS overseas arrivals and departures data for August are a positive indicator for Helloworld Travel.

Total arrivals advanced 7.2% in August on a year earlier and departures rose 11.2%.

Shaw and Partners believes the stock offers attractive value at FY25 price-to-earnings ratio of 7.8x with a 6.5% fully franked yield.

No change to target price of $3.50 with the broker reiterating a Buy rating, High risk.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $1.86 Difference: $1.64
If HLO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 49.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HUB as Buy (1) -

"A tidal flow" is how Bell Potter describes Hub24's 1Q25 results with funds under administration growing 8.5%  to $91.6bn quarter-on-quarter with record underlying net inflows of $4bn.

Management offered upbeat guidance for platform funds target of $115bn-$123bn or an 18% compound growth rate at the midpoint for FY26.

Bell Potter lifts FY26 EPS by 4% due to an increase in flow of funds estimates.

The broker states a Buy rating is retained. Target price is raised to $73 from $66.50 as the valuation ascribed is lifted, noting Hub24 continues to trade at a discount to Netwealth Group ((NWL)).

Target price is $73.00 Current Price is $65.10 Difference: $7.9
If HUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.67, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Hub24's 1Q FY25 net flows of $4bn beat Citi's forecast by 7% due to ongoing strong gross inflows, though lower outflows were also a driver for the net flow beat.

Representing a mixed outcome, according to the analyst, solid adviser additions and new distribution agreements were partly offset by lower cash balances. 

These lower-than-expected cash balances represent a headwind to the broker's revenue margin forecast of 7.5% for H1.

Neutral. Target $56.70.

Target price is $56.70 Current Price is $65.10 Difference: minus $8.4 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $59.67, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Despite a high valuation, Macquarie sees limited scope for a near-term de-rating of Hub24 shares after net flows for Q1 of around $4bn exceeded the broker's forecast by $0.8bn.

The broker suggests management's FY26 funds under administration (FUA) target of $115-123bn is already looking conservative.

The analyst's target price rises to $62.10 from $51 to reflect upgraded earnings forecasts, a valuation roll-forward, and the recent small
industrials re-rating. Neutral rated.

Target price is $62.10 Current Price is $65.10 Difference: minus $3 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $59.67, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HUB as Overweight (1) -

At first inspection Morgan Stanley highlights 1Q25 funds under administration came in 1.5% above consensus.

Net inflows were in line with consensus but accounting for the absence of any large migrations from EQT Holdings ((EQT)), the analyst believes the net inflows were better than expected.

The broker explains there is "upside" potential for FY26 platform funds under administration to beat guidance and consensus at $123bn.

Overweight rating reconfirmed. Target price unchanged at $62. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $62.00 Current Price is $65.10 Difference: minus $3.1 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $59.67, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Hub24 reported better than expected net inflows for 1Q25 at $4bn above Ord Minnett's estimate of $3bn and up from $2.8bn a year ago.

Funds under administration grew 8.5% over the previous quarter and came in better than expected.

Ord Minnett raises EPS forecasts by 5% to 8% over the next three years.

Due to the share price performance, the stock is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy with a lift in the target price to $68 from $55.

The broker stresses the valuation is becoming more of a "challenge" but the EPS outlook of a compound average growth rate of 28% from FY25 to FY27 is positive.

Target price is $68.00 Current Price is $65.10 Difference: $2.9
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.67, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IMD as Hold (3) -

Imdex reported 1Q25 results with a fall in revenue of -11% on the previous year and up 3% on the quarter, Bell Potter explains, driven by a decline in average sensors on hire of -6% compared to the same period in FY23.

The broker points to an improved product mix as a positive outcome, including higher margin sensors and SaaS sales.

Junior equity listings remain "subdued" the analyst notes but did grow month-on-month and year-on-year by 76% and 62%, respectively.

Target price is raised to $2.25 from $2.05 due to a lower cost of capital in the valuation. Hold rating remains.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.39 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If IMD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Sell (5) -

Citi highlights 1Q revenue for Imdex has fallen by -11% on the previous corresponding period which compares to the broker's forecast for a -9% decline in revenue for H1.

More positively, the analysts note ongoing improvement for average revenue per user (ARPU) momentum and an uplift for average sensors on hire.

In a follow-up later on the day, Citi analysts questioned current share market optimism. How long the market is prepared to wait? the broker asks, and then states: In the absence of elevated junior raisings, subdued exploration levels seen in 4Q FY24 and 1Q FY25 are likely to persevere.

Imdex's topline resilience is commendable, the broker admits, but the company certainly is not immune. Citi analysts continue to see heightened risk of earnings rebasing in the near term.

The Sell rating and $1.95 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $2.39 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

Regarding rare earth oxides (REO) coverage, the broker notes NdPr prices climbed from August and have settled at around US$60/kg on buying by Chinese magnet factories ahead of peak consumer season in September and October.

Since September, prices rose due to Myanmar REO supply being cut-off when the civil war impacted the mining region, explain the analysts.

Ord Minnett's price forecasts for NdPr, Dy and Tb prices from December this year to June 2025 rise in response to expected tightening of supply.

The target for Lynas Rare Earths rises to $7.80 from $7.40. Accumulate.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.77 Difference: $0.03
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.88, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MEI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

Regarding rare earth oxides (REO) coverage, the broker notes NdPr prices climbed from August and have settled at around US$60/kg on buying by Chinese magnet factories ahead of peak consumer season in September and October.

Since September, prices rose due to Myanmar REO supply being cut-off when the civil war impacted the mining region, explain the analysts.

Ord Minnett's price forecasts for NdPr, Dy and Tb prices from December this year to June 2025 rise in response to expected tightening of supply.

For Meteoric Resources, the Speculative Buy rating and 20c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.107
If MEI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 115% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 220.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NGI as Buy (1) -

Navigator Global Investments' 1Q25 trading update came in slightly above Ord Minnett's outlook with Lighthouse Partners increasing assets under management by 0.8% and outflows being offset by positive performance.

The Global long/short fund recorded a 1% return over the period which is viewed as reasonable with multi strategy above the fund's benchmark.

With an attractive valuation of 10.8x FY25 earnings, the broker highlights "we remain a BUYer" of the stock with an unchanged $2.15 target price

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: $0.36
If NGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

The broker increases gold forecast by 18% in FY25 and 15% in FY26 with an unchanged copper price forecast. 

Ord Minnett observes mid-small cap gold companies remain attractively valued and have under-performed the gold price by -16% in 2024. This is expected to "unwind" with inflation easing and improving labour market conditions.

The broker lifts EPS estimates by 40% in FY25 and 58% in FY26. Northern Star Resources is due to report 1Q25 results on Oct 24.

No change to Hold rating. Target price rises to $16.20 from $13.90.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $16.51 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.89, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NTU as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

Regarding rare earth oxides (REO) coverage, the broker notes NdPr prices climbed from August and have settled at around US$60/kg on buying by Chinese magnet factories ahead of peak consumer season in September and October.

Since September, prices rose due to Myanmar REO supply being cut-off when the civil war impacted the mining region, explain the analysts.

Ord Minnett's price forecasts for NdPr, Dy and Tb prices from December this year to June 2025 rise in response to expected tightening of supply.

For Northern Minerals, the Speculative Buy rating and 4c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.02
If NTU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

The broker increases gold forecast by 18% in FY25 and 15% in FY26 with an unchanged copper price forecast. 

Ord Minnett observes mid-small cap gold companies remain attractively valued and have under-performed the gold price by -16% in 2024. This is expected to "unwind" with inflation easing and improving labour market conditions.

Target price lifts to 13c from 11c. Speculative Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.005
If PNR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Citi assesses a disappointing September quarter operational release by Rio Tinto today.

While the Pilbara iron ore operations are performing well with shipments rising by 5% on the prior quarter, observes the broker, management raised opex guidance to the upper half of unchanged FY24 guidance given persistent inflation. 

While Escondida production rose by 15% on the previous corresponding period due to higher copper grades, production at Oyu Tolgoi fell by -5%. Planned maintenance at the concentrator and adverse weather impacted open pit operations at Oyu Tolgoi, explains the broker.

2024 guidance for Iron Ore company of Canada's iron ore pellets and concentrate production has been reduced to between 9.1 to 9.6mt from 9.8 to 11.5mt following an 11 day site-wide shutdown due to forest fires in mid-July, notes Citi.

Neutral. Target $123.

Target price is $123.00 Current Price is $122.07 Difference: $0.93
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.33, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

The broker increases gold forecast by 18% in FY25 and 15% in FY26 with an unchanged copper price forecast. 

Ord Minnett observes mid-small cap gold companies remain attractively valued and have under-performed the gold price by -16% in 2024. This is expected to "unwind" with inflation easing and improving labour market conditions.

The broker raises EPS forecasts by 22% in FY25 and 27% in FY26. In the upcoming quarterly the analyst is expecting production to be weighted to 2H25, with 1Q25 results boosted by higher gold prices.

Buy rating unchanged. Target price lifts to $2.65 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: $0.37
If RMS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SBM as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

The broker increases gold forecast by 18% in FY25 and 15% in FY26 with an unchanged copper price forecast. 

Ord Minnett observes mid-small cap gold companies remain attractively valued and have under-performed the gold price by -16% in 2024. This is expected to "unwind" with inflation easing and improving labour market conditions.

The broker lifts EPS forecasts by 305% and 161% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Target price for St. Barbara rises to 34c from 24c. Hold rating unchanged.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: minus $0.055 (current price is over target).
If SBM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

The broker's price forecast for copper is unchanged as prices were more stable through the September quarter at around US$4.18/lb.

Under the broker's base metals coverage, there are moderate increases to the analysts' target prices for companies more exposed to gold and zinc.

Under the broker's base metals coverage, the target for Sandfire Resources (copper and zinc) rises to $10.35 from $9.60.

Target price is $10.35 Current Price is $10.84 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.38, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGM as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes the current valuation ascribed to Sims is too high at 28 times FY25 prospective earnings despite an improvement in prices.

The broker lifts earnings forecasts to account for the trading update and closure of the UK divestment. FY25 EBIT lifts 22%, EPS by 34%, with a rise of 22% in FY26 EBIT and 35% increase in EPS estimates.

The increases are not viewed as sustainable given the volatility in earnings from a historical basis.

Underweight rating unchanged. Target price $11.50. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $13.08 Difference: minus $1.58 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.51, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

Relating to the broker's coal coverage, the near-term price forecast for metallurgical coal is lowered in line with recent market softness, while the medium-term forecast is increased to more closely align with consensus.

The thermal coal price forecast is increased to reflect recent appreciation and to be more in line with medium-term consensus, explain the analysts.

The target for Stanmore Resources falls to $4.20 from $5.00. Buy.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: $1.06
If SMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TPG as Hold (3) -

Morgans assesses the sale by TPG Telecom of its fibre and fixed enterprise, government and wholesale assets to Vocus for around $5bn with completion in 2H25, subject to regulatory approvals. The broker states financially the deal makes sense, allowing the company to de-gear the balance sheet.

From a strategic perspective, the analyst emphasises, the transaction aligns with Vodafone's global restructuring including the separation of infrastructure and consumer related businesses. It is a "reversal" of the original argument for the TPG Telecom/Vodafone merger, which is raising eyebrows.

Management reaffirmed FY24 EBITDA guidance of $1.95bn to $2.025bn at the midpoint currently.

The Hold rating remains with a downgrade in the target price to $4.90 from $5.20.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: $0.02
If TPG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VAU as No Rating (-1) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

The broker increases gold forecast by 18% in FY25 and 15% in FY26 with an unchanged copper price forecast. 

Ord Minnett observes mid-small cap gold companies remain attractively valued and have under-performed the gold price by -16% in 2024. This is expected to "unwind" with inflation easing and improving labour market conditions.Vault Minerals is included in this category of producers.

The broker lifts EPS forecasts by 60% in FY25 and 102% in FY26 for Vault Minerals.

Target price is increased to 52c from 47c with a Buy rating.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.175
If VAU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

UBS flags a soft 3Q2024 trading update from Viva Energy is now expected due to weaker refining margins and softer product demand, with increased supply impacting market dynamics.

The analyst has lowered the Geelong refining margin estimate to US$7.1/bbl versus consensus at US$8.48/bbl with forecast production retained at 10.4mmbbls, in line with consensus.

Viva Energy remains the preferred stock for exposure to retail fuels.

UBS lowers EPS forecasts by -4% in FY24 and FY25. Buy rating remains with a lower target price of $3.50 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $0.57
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.66, suggesting upside of 25.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VMM as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

Regarding rare earth oxides (REO) coverage, the broker notes NdPr prices climbed from August and have settled at around US$60/kg on buying by Chinese magnet factories ahead of peak consumer season in September and October.

Since September, prices rose due to Myanmar REO supply being cut-off when the civil war impacted the mining region, explain the analysts.

Ord Minnett's price forecasts for NdPr, Dy and Tb prices from December this year to June 2025 rise in response to expected tightening of supply.

For Viridis Mining and Minerals, the Hold rating and $1.00 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.46
If VMM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Sell (5) -

Woodside Energy's 3Q revenue beat forecasts by Citi and consensus by 6%. In an early assessment of today's release, the broker believes the beat was driven by stronger oil production across the non-Gulf of Mexico portfolio, particularly Sangomar.

Strong production resulted in a positive narrowing of FY24 guidance to 189-195mmboe from 185-195mmboe. Despite a high percentage of LNG sold at spot, realised pricing missed the broker's estimates.

Capex guidance was also improved to US$4.2-5.2bn from US$5.0-5.5bn compared to the consensus estimate for US$5.5bn and the analyst's US$5.3bn forecast.

The broker believes consensus projections for the final dividend will be upgraded excessively as the market will likely continue to underestimate Sangomar D&A expenses.

Target $23. Sell.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $24.79 Difference: minus $1.79 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.85, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WEB as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie slashes its target for WEB Travel by -32.9% to $5.12 after management downgraded revenue margin guidance to circa 6.5% from between 7-7.5% primarily due to sustained weakness in European margins.

The broker is anticipating ongoing margin pressure due to a volume mix shift to lower margin regions, investments by hotels into direct channels and increasing volume rebates. The rise of exclusive contracts is also considered a headwind.

Further, the analyst suggests guidance for flat FY25 underlying opex is not sustainable in the longer-term.

Neutral rating.

Target price is $5.12 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.52
If WEB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.45, suggesting upside of 43.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WEB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights WEB Travel's reported1H25 earnings downgrade without offering a conference call heightened "disappointment" and "confusion" in the market.

The decline in revenue margins to 6.5% from around 8% in FY23/FY24 is the main concern for the broker, and whether it can be sustained going forward.

Ord Minnett proposes post covid margins had some inflation effect which may have boosted them, and the downward revision is not as bad as the -1.5% flagged by the company post discussions with industry.

Nevertheless, EPS forecasts are cut by -45% in FY25 and -48% in FY26.

Target price is slashed to $6.14 from $9.21. Buy rating remains.

Target price is $6.14 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $1.54
If WEB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.45, suggesting upside of 43.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WGX as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

The broker increases gold forecast by 18% in FY25 and 15% in FY26 with an unchanged copper price forecast. 

Ord Minnett observes mid-small cap gold companies remain attractively valued and have under-performed the gold price by -16% in 2024. This is expected to "unwind" with inflation easing and improving labour market conditions.

The broker lifts EPS forecasts by 23% in FY25 and 161% in FY26.

No change to Accumulate rating with a rise in target price to $3.85 from $3.10.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $1.25
If WGX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett updates expectations for miners in the run up to the quarterly earnings season alongside revised commodity price targets.

Relating to the broker's coal coverage, the near-term price forecast for metallurgical coal is lowered in line with recent market softness, while the medium-term forecast is increased to more closely align with consensus.

The thermal coal price forecast is increased to reflect recent appreciation and to be more in line with medium-term consensus, explain the analysts.

The target for Whitehaven Coal falls to $8.80 from $9.30. Ord Minnett moderates its production forest for Maules Creek to align with guidance for the Queensland assets. Buy.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.26 Difference: $1.54
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.54, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources