Australian Broker Call
November 29, 2016
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
Last Updated: 11:40 AM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
MTS - | METCASH | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
PGH - | PACT GROUP | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
TOF - | 360 CAPITAL OFFICE FUND | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
VTG - | VITA GROUP | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
WFD - | WESTFIELD CORP | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
XIP - | XENITH IP GROUP | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
ATL  APOLLO TOURISM & LEISURE LTD
Automobiles & Components
Overnight Price: $1.35
Morgans rates ATL as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -
Apollo Tourism & Leisure is a multinational, vertically integrated manufacturer, retailer and rental fleet operator of a range of recreational vehicles. Its portfolio of well-known brands, including Winnebago, allows the company to cater to all budgets.
The company forecasts EBIT of $27m in FY17, up 57% on FY16. Morgans believes, as the company further penetrates the new recreational vehicle sales market, it should be able to continue to deliver double-digit growth.
Morgans initiates coverage with an Add rating and target of $1.44.
Target price is $1.44 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $0.09
If ATL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates BEN as Hold (3) -
The bank's Pillar 3 report for the September quarter has shown sound trends in asset quality, Deutsche Bank observes. While much of the improvement in impaired assets was from the resolution of a single exposure, the trends were better than the broker expected.
Deutsche Bank takes the opportunity to incorporate current data on house price growth and APRA volume statistics. As the prospect of advanced accreditation appears fully incorporated in the price, the broker retains a Hold rating. Target is raised to $10.70 from $10.30.
Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $11.85 Difference: minus $1.15 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.40, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.8, implying annual growth of -12.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.5, implying annual growth of 0.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates FBU as Underperform (5) -
Macquarie notes the company has qualified its FY17 EBIT guidance of $720-760m in that is it based on estimated cross rates for NZD/AUD and NZD/USD, close to FY16 averages of NZ$0.92 and NZ$0.67 respectively.
The broker notes other variations against the company's budget have been called out recently but these are a mix of positives and negatives.
Underperform and NZ$8.00 target retained.
Current Price is $10.15. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $11.73, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 37.37 cents and EPS of 58.48 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 38.30 cents and EPS of 57.17 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.0, implying annual growth of 5.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates HUO as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett believes the Tasmanian salmon industry offers attractive growth prospects. Domestic prices have increased, having endured unfavourable growing conditions last year owing to warm waters.
If prices stay high a normalisation of production costs could lead to significant margin expansion in FY18 and FY19. While forecasting Huon to grow profit faster from a lower base the broker prefers Tassal ((TGR)). Ord Minnett initiates coverage on Huon with a Hold rating and $3.81 target.
Target price is $3.81 Current Price is $3.74 Difference: $0.07
If HUO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates ILU as Buy (1) -
2016 hasn't been a great year for Iluka, and that's a serious understatement. The good news is Citi analysts see sufficient indications 2017 might be a much better experience.
The analysts have upgraded their rutile price estimate to US$800/t from US$775/t and believe market conditions are improving for zircon as well.
The updated forecasts now also include Sierra Rutile (SRL), though that might prove too optimistic as Iluka announced this morning the proposed deal is on hold after detecting geotechnical risks at the West African company's tailings dams. Target price $8.10 (up 20c).
Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $6.50 Difference: $1.6
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.56, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.8, implying annual growth of -62.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 131.9. |
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 32.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of 285.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates JBH as Add (1) -
The company has settled its acquisition of The Good Guys. As Morgans had previously assumed settlement would be January 1 2017, the inclusion of December trading means FY17 earnings forecasts increase by 3.6%.
The broker maintains an Add rating and raises the target to $32.77 from $32.75.
Target price is $32.77 Current Price is $26.22 Difference: $6.55
If JBH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.68, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 115.00 cents and EPS of 177.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.8, implying annual growth of 11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 130.00 cents and EPS of 200.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 194.0, implying annual growth of 13.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 127.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MGX as Outperform (1) -
The company has secured two separate offtake agreements with Chinese steel producers for half of the planned production from Iron Hill. Final regulatory approval is now needed to bring the mine into production in the second half to replace Extension Hill.
This offtake deal signals to Macquarie that the company is confident in obtaining regulatory approvals, as this project will be its only source of cash flow until Koolan Island re-starts, expected in 2018.
Outperform and 48c target retained.
Target price is $0.48 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.13
If MGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of -89.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates MTS as Neutral (3) -
Earnings may have troughed, Citi analysts conclude post the company's interim release. Sales growth remains weak, the analysts note, but reducing costs should prevent profits from falling further.
EPS estimates have lifted by 2.5% in FY17 and by 5.6% in FY18 to account for lower net debt estimates. The analysts suggest additional store openings by Aldi is likely going to keep sales trends in the negative.
Rating remains Neutral because the "growth" story remains exclusively about reducing costs. Price target climbs to $2.35, up 5c.
Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.29
If MTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of -17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 20.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates MTS as Outperform (1) -
First half results were in line with the broker's forecast and ahead of market expectations. Key to the outlook is the guidance for an increase in EBIT for the food distribution segment in the second half, and expected synergies from hardware are at the upper end of estimates.
Credit Suisse observes that, unless capital expenditure or restructuring costs are significantly higher, the company is likely to deleverage very quickly over the next several years. A return to paying dividends in FY18 is expected. Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $2.54 from $2.42.
Target price is $2.54 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.48
If MTS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.78 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of -17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.62 cents and EPS of 22.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates MTS as Sell (5) -
First half EBIT was below Deutsche Bank's estimates. The main business was weak as a result of headwinds from store closures, deflation and competition. Liquor continued to grow and hardware performed in line with the broker's expectations.
Deutsche Bank downgrades forecasts for food & grocery and lowers its expected growth rate for liquor. The broker upgrades synergies for FY18-19 for the Home Timber And Hardware acquisition, based on guidance.
A Sell rating is retained and the target is lowered to $1.60 from $1.65.
Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of -17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MTS as Outperform (1) -
First half earnings were ahead of expectations. More importantly, Macquarie notes there is greater clarity on the second half outlook and synergy benefits from the recent acquisition of Home Timber And Hardware.
The company expects synergies of $15-20m, taking the post-synergy acquisition multiple to four times EBITDA.
While competition Is tough, the company's strategic and cost agendas continue to underpin the growth outlook of 8% compound over the next three years, the broker observes.
Outperform rating retained. Target is raised to $2.60 from $2.54.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.54
If MTS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of -17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 22.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates MTS as Overweight (1) -
First half results were in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations. The broker has greater conviction in the turnaround of the company and believes food & grocery earnings have bottomed and hardware should deliver significant growth.
The company is expected to be virtually debt free by FY18. As the market focuses on the likely dividend in FY18 the broker suspects the shares will re-rate.
Overweight rating maintained. In-Line sector view.Target is lifted to $2.80 from $2.50.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.74
If MTS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of -17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates MTS as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -
First half net profit of $82.8m was ahead of Ord Minnett forecasts, but was driven by gains at the corporate line, with core EBIT for food & grocery below expectations.
The broker downgrades to Hold from Accumulate and reduces the target to $2.00 from $2.30. Ord Minnett believes the competitive environment is challenging and likely to remain so, and this will consume much of the company's cost savings.
While the company is executing well, the position of its customers in aggregate is not strong, which weighs on the competitive position of the wholesaler, in the broker's opinion.
Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of -17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MTS as Sell (5) -
Metcash's result featured greater cost-outs than the broker had expected, and upgraded synergies for the hardware acquisition. The offset, however, was ongoing declines in grocery sales. While having performed well against the headwinds, Metcash's problem remains a structural one, the broker suggests.
Management is doing a good job, the broker contends, but cost-outs can only run so far. Forecast earnings have been ticked up and the target rises to $1.70 from $1.50 but the broker retains Sell on the structurally challenged core food business.
Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of -17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates MVF as Hold (3) -
The company has guided for net profit to be up 7% in the first half. Morgans makes no changes to forecasts at this stage.
Although maintaining a Hold rating, given the recent price weakness the broker is becoming more positive and looks for an entry point to the stock at around $1.80.
Upside risk relates to improving cycle volumes in Australia and downside risk relates to possible regulatory changes. Target is steady at $1.99.
Target price is $1.99 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.09
If MVF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 8.90 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.3, implying annual growth of 9.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.40 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.3, implying annual growth of 7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates MYO as Buy (1) -
The company's investor briefing reinforced Ord Minnett's view that the business is now in much better shape and adoption of cloud services is entering a new phase that should benefit the company and play directly to its key strengths.
In the medium term, the broker envisages MYOB maintaining its market leadership while delivering a high proportion of recurring revenue and earnings. A Buy rating is maintained. Target rises to $4.30 from $4.22.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.84
If MYO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 11.20 cents and EPS of 9.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of 38.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.2. |
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.80 cents and EPS of 12.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.1, implying annual growth of 13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NUF as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie expects the company to reaffirm its expectations for EBIT growth in FY17 at the AGM. Growth is expected to come through internally-generated margin expansion, amidst external challenges.
The broker forecasts $20m of incremental savings in FY17, mainly from the closure of Calgary plant and manufacturing efficiencies at Laverton plant.
Outperform rating and $9.50 target retained.
Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: $0.78
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.02, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 15.10 cents and EPS of 50.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.4, implying annual growth of 709.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 60.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.7, implying annual growth of 22.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates OSH as Accumulate (2) -
The 2016 production guidance has been narrowed to the top end of the 28-30mmboe guidance range. This did not surprise Ord Minnett, given the strong performance in the year to date.
The broker does not change its view of the stock, believing Oil Search is a participant in a world class LNG project with high-quality growth prospects.
Ord Minnett's Accumulate rating is retained. Target is $7.75.
Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $6.73 Difference: $1.02
If OSH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.80, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 2.69 cents and EPS of 12.11 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 55.6. |
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 9.42 cents and EPS of 26.91 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 127.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates PGH as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
Pact's rigid packaging end-markets are finally showing signs of life, UBS notes, and dairy prices have recovered some 55% from their lows. This should provide for a better domestic outlook from the second half of FY17 once contract losses have been cycled through.
Acquisitions could provide further underpinning, leading UBS to consider risk/reward to now be more evenly balanced at the current valuation. Upgrade to Neutral. Target rises to $6.20 from $5.60.
Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $6.16 Difference: $0.04
If PGH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.52, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.7, implying annual growth of 26.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.5, implying annual growth of 13.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SFR as Outperform (1) -
The company focused on exploration at its AGM, with DeGrussa continuing to generate strong cash flow. Macquarie believes the project is on track for another strong year, expecting exploration expenditure to step up, but also an increase in dividends.
DeGrussa is one of the highest margin operations in the broker's mid-cap coverage. Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and $7.30 target.
Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $6.12 Difference: $1.18
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.82, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 50.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 6.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 72.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of 54.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates SRX as Buy (1) -
Sirtex' R&D day revealed a push to diversify away from the company's over-exposure to one single product, being SIR-spheres. While the broker believes this is sensible in theory, diversification will require capital, introduce risk, and push the company into areas in which it has no track record.
The various products Sirtex is considering represent large untapped markets, the broker notes, but the competition is likely onto them as well. At this stage the broker is not including new R&D in its valuation. Buy and $39 target retained.
Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $28.59 Difference: $10.41
If SRX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $35.47, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 106.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.4, implying annual growth of 17.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 121.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 133.0, implying annual growth of 20.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates TAH as Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank notes press speculation that Ladbrokes Coral is planning a cash and scrip based bid for Tabcorp.
While the broker acknowledges there may be some merit in a potential merger, the challenges include the size of the potential transaction, relative trading multiples, and convincing Tabcorp shareholders to accept Ladbroke Coral scrip ahead of potential regulatory risk.
Nevertheless, Ladbrokes is a relatively small wagering business in Australia and has stated its intention to increase its presence. A merger with Tabcorp would fit this strategy.
Hold rating retained. Target is $5.30.
Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: $0.58
If TAH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.7, implying annual growth of 16.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 11.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates TAH as Neutral (3) -
The UK press is suggesting Ladbrokes is weighing up a bid for Tabcorp, being forced to move given Tabcorp's proposed acquisition of Tatts Group ((TTS)). The bid is in its infancy and not certain.
The broker points out that on comparable multiples, Tabcorp is more highly valued than Ladbrokes, suggesting any script-swap in a bid would be expensive. There are also few cost synergies to be gleaned given the level of tote betting Tabcorp relies on, and Ladbrokes has already done well in Australia with its alternative digital bookmaking.
But, Australia is attractive relative to other offshore markets. The broker has not made any changes to forecasts and retains Neutral with a $4.49 target.
Target price is $4.49 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.7, implying annual growth of 16.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.50 cents and EPS of 25.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 11.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates TGR as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett believes the Tasmanian salmon industry offers attractive growth prospects. Domestic prices have increased, having endured unfavourable growing conditions last year owing to warm waters.
If prices stay high a normalisation of production costs could lead to significant margin expansion in FY18 and FY19. The broker likes the stock for its strong market position and growth potential. Target price drops to $4.62 from $4.74. Buy rating retained.
Target price is $4.62 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: $0.77
If TGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.42, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.1, implying annual growth of -5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of 1.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates TIX as Add (1) -
360 Capital Investment Management, as the responsible entity, has entered into a conditional contract to sell the majority of its funds management platform and co-investments to Centuria Capital ((CNI)).
As part of the transaction, Centuria will purchase all the units 360 Capital owns in TIX for around $82.8m or $2.50 per unit. Centuria plans to continue managing TIX in line with its current strategy.
Morgans retained a Add rating and reduces the target to $2.70 from $2.90.
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.39 Difference: $0.31
If TIX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 21.60 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.50 cents and EPS of 23.60 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates TOF as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -
360 Capital Investment Management, as the responsible entity, has entered into a conditional contract to sell the majority of its funds management platform and co-investments to Centuria Capital ((CNI)).
As part of the transaction, Centuria will purchase all the units 360 Capital owns in TOF for around $47.4m or $2.25 per unit. Centuria Is considering a merger of TOF and Centuria Metropolitan REIT ((CMA)), if in the best interest of unit holders.
Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add and reduces the target to $2.26 from $2.35.
Target price is $2.26 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: $0.1
If TOF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates VTG as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
The company has agreed new commercial terms with Telstra ((TLS)), with changes to the remuneration structure. No specific earnings impact was provided, although the company stated it expects to see volume improvement, offset by some margin compression.
Morgans suspects, overall, the remuneration changes reflect Telstra's cost pressures and this could see increased measures from Telstra to control the growth of the retail licensee channel.
The broker suspects the new deal reduces the medium/longer term growth opportunity in the company's retail channel but, that said, Vita Group has multiple growth drivers. Morgan upgrades to Add from Hold. Target falls to $4.00 from $5.20.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $1.01
If VTG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates WFD as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
Citi analysts still believe market consensus forecasts are too high. They also believe news flow has been largely negative since their last update on the company in late August, with both Brexit and Trump occurring in core Westfield operating markets.
But... the share price pull back that has occurred since seems to provide sufficient compensation, hence why the rating moves to Neutral from Sell. Citi analysts have reduced estimates and their valuation. Target drops to $9.19 from $9.58.
Target price is $9.19 Current Price is $9.08 Difference: $0.11
If WFD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.34, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 33.77 cents and EPS of 45.21 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.3, implying annual growth of -78.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.3. |
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 34.04 cents and EPS of 45.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of 6.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WSA as Outperform (1) -
The company has announced a new offtake agreement with Tsingshan for 10,000tpa of nickel in concentrate over three years. Macquarie expects the contract to yield a higher nickel pay rate as it will be processed through a nickel roaster rather than a nickel smelter.
With little further detail to date the broker will await the second half result to observe the impact of the new contract. Outperform rating retained and the target is raised to $3.80 from $3.50.
Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.28 Difference: $0.52
If WSA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting downside of -24.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 10.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 29.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates XIP as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -
The company will buy Griffith Hack for $152m. Morgan flags the transformational nature of the deal, given the sheer scale of Griffith Hack compared with the company's market capitalisation.
The broker believes Xenith has now reached its natural market share in Australia and may struggle to materially outgrow the broader market. Hence, future growth will need to be driven by offshore penetration.
Morgan Stanley downgrades to Hold from Add, until it is comfortable with how the integration is progressing. Target falls to $2.92 from $4.20.
Target price is $2.92 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.22
If XIP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
ATL - | APOLLO TOURISM & LEISURE | Initiation of coverage with Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.35 |
BEN - | BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $11.85 |
FBU - | FLETCHER BUILDING | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $10.15 |
HUO - | HUON AQUACULTURE | Initiation of coverage with Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.74 |
ILU - | ILUKA RESOURCES | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $6.50 |
JBH - | JB HI-FI | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $26.22 |
MGX - | MOUNT GIBSON IRON | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.35 |
MTS - | METCASH | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.06 |
Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.06 | ||
Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.06 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.06 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.06 | ||
Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.06 | ||
Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $2.06 | ||
MVF - | MONASH IVF | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.90 |
MYO - | MYOB | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.46 |
NUF - | NUFARM | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $8.72 |
OSH - | OIL SEARCH | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $6.73 |
PGH - | PACT GROUP | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $6.16 |
SFR - | SANDFIRE | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.12 |
SRX - | SIRTEX MEDICAL | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $28.59 |
TAH - | TABCORP HOLDINGS | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $4.72 |
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.72 | ||
TGR - | TASSAL GROUP | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.85 |
TIX - | 360 CAPITAL INDUSTRIAL FUND | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.39 |
TOF - | 360 CAPITAL OFFICE FUND | Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.16 |
VTG - | VITA GROUP | Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.99 |
WFD - | WESTFIELD CORP | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $9.08 |
WSA - | WESTERN AREAS | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.28 |
XIP - | XENITH IP GROUP | Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.70 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 15 |
2. Accumulate | 1 |
3. Hold | 11 |
5. Sell | 3 |
Tuesday 29 November 2016
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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