Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates A1M as Buy (1) -

AIC Mines has commenced a maiden drill program at Jericho with 23,500m of RC and diamond drilling to be completed by the end of 2023. Resource definition drilling will upgrade inferred resources to indicated.

Shaw and Partners observes the development of Jericho will transform Eloise into a true cornerstone asset.

The stock offers investors one of the few ways to invest in simple leveraged exposure to the copper price on ASX, the broker adds. Buy rating and $0.60 target.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.2
If A1M meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as Outperform (1) -

AGL Energy's unlisted rival Energy Australia provided a monthly update highlighting it was still losing customers in the first quarter. Industry churn, however, looks stable, but Macquarie expects it will increase in June once market pricing is confirmed next week.

The broker's confidence has grown that prices will remain higher for longer. AGL's coal-fired plants typically obtain close to the average price and to date the entry of renewables has yet to see any material deviation.

Macquarie anticipates more storage in the system is likely to be a positive for base load generators like AGL. Target rises to $9.61 from $8.31, Outperform retained.

Target price is $9.61 Current Price is $9.01 Difference: $0.6
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.56, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates APX as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Bell Potter updates forecasts to allow for the capital raising that Appen announced. There are no changes to underlying revenue and EBITDA forecasts.

Modest reductions in forecast losses are made and the broker has removed the borrowings it previously assumed would be drawn in 2023 and 2024.

Bell Potter envisages no need for the company to take on debt or do another capital raising for at least the next three years.

Rating is upgraded to Hold from Sell and the target increases to $2.20 from $2.05. The broker suspects the main negative catalysts have now passed.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If APX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting downside of -23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

BHP Group sees 13% group volume growth potential through to the end of FY30, driven by OZ Minerals, Jansen potash and WA Iron Ore. The outlook presents upside risk to Macquarie's forecasts, which do not include the expansion to 330mt at WAIO or accelerated Jansen Stage 2.

Macquarie has incorporated the OZ Minerals assets into its base case forecasts for BHP for the first time. FY23 earnings are largely unchanged, while FY24-FY29 earnings forecasts rise 4-6% and FY30 and beyond estimates rise around 8%.

Outperform and $52 target retained.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $43.72 Difference: $8.28
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.94, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BST as Neutral (3) -

Inconsistent trading conditions over the second half into March through to May on weak consumer sentiment has led to Best & Less lowering second half profit guidance by some -40%. Sales are down -1.4% year to date despite strong Easter and Mother's Day trading.

Despite the company’s upbeat FY24 outlook, citing supportive measures in the recent federal budget, Macquarie remains cautious on Best & Less and its specific consumer segment.

Neutral retained, target falls to $1.70 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If BST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has reviewed the implications of the potential approval of Argenx’s FcRn antagonist, efgartigimod, in the treatment of chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy, saving you the trouble.

The potential approval of efgartigimod in the treatment of CIDP presents a risk to Ig volumes and earnings for CSL, the broker notes.

But analysis highlights that downside risk may be more than offset by yield improvements in plasma collection and manufacturing, leaving Macquarie positive on CSL's growth outlook.

Outperform and $344 target retained.

Target price is $344.00 Current Price is $304.22 Difference: $39.78
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $337.18, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CTT as Buy (1) -

Cettire has indicated the fourth quarter has commenced well with sales revenue in April up 160% and a similar growth rate expected in May/June.

Bell Potter believes the business will continue to outperform its peer group of global luxury retailers and local e-commerce operators, given it has a small share in a large and growing market, which could be more resilient than other discretionary categories in a recession.

Buy rating retained. Target is raised to $2.50 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: $0.48
If CTT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DBI as Buy (1) -

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure has announced a Terminal Infrastructure Charge (TIC) increase of 8.7% to $3.45 for the 12 month period ending June 2024.

Citi analysts, in response, explain the implied revenue for this period is $290.5m, marginally ahead of market consensus on $288.5m.

The broker retains a positive view (Buy) as the duration mismatch remains favourable, with Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure increasing revenue and borrowing long into an inverted yield curve. 

Target price $2.80.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.2
If DBI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DLI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has a Speculative Buy rating and $0.85 target for Delta Lithium.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.27
If DLI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HCW as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a transformative acquisition of 11 hospitals with HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT owning four directly. The other seven will be held within the newly created unlisted Healthcare and Life Sciences fund, circa 50%-owned by the REIT. 

The broker sees higher quality assets and income, a portfolio with greater scale, as well as future growth opportunities via the development pipeline.

On top of new debt and flagged asset sales, the deal (valued at $1.2bn - the REIT's share $730m) will be funded by an underwritten placement and rights issue raising $320m at $1.35/share.

Separately, management confirmed it is on track to deliver FY23 funds from operations (FFO) guidance, while FY23 dividend guidance was upgraded to 7.6c from 7.5c.

Add. The target falls to $1.72 from $2.06.

Target price is $1.72 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.36
If HCW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.69, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

Incitec Pivot's first half undelying profit of $361.9m was a miss against forecasts made by Citi and consensus of -12% and -21%, respectively. The interim dividend was kept at 10cps, franked to 60%.

Fertilisers earnings (EBIT) dropped to $108m from $257m in the previous corresponding period, driven by lower commodity prices and the previously announced temporary increase in the cost of gas at Phosphate Hill, explain the analysts.

The broker lowers its DAP price estimates for FY23E/24 by -2% on average and trims its earnings estimates, resulting in a target of $3.15, down from $3.40. The Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.21
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

Incitec Pivot's first half result missed at the headline level, with profit -14% below Macquarie's estimate. The explosives division demonstrated momentum but fertilser was weak.

The broker returns from restriction post the sale of the Waggaman plant with Neutral rating and a $3.15 target, noting valuation looks undemanding.

A resumption of the buyback and Waggaman sale completion are potential positive catalysts, along with greater clarity on use of sale proceeds expected at the FY23 result in November.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.21
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPL as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Incitec Pivot's 1H result materially missed consensus expectations largely due to a significant fall in fertiliser prices over recent months, which Morgans thinks will likely decline further in the near term. 

Corporate costs were also materially higher than expected and interest costs rose. The broker lowers its target to $3.29 from $4.55 and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Add.

The analysts also list other 1H headwinds including third party gas supply issues at Phosphate Hill, the closure of Gibson Island in January, unfavourable currency hedging on fertiliser sales and extreme weather also impacted Dyno North American explosives volumes.

Target price is $3.29 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.35
If IPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPL as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Despite a negative share price reaction yesterday, first half underlying profit for Incitec Pivot was slightly ahead of Ord Minnett's forecast. The interim dividend of 10cps also exceeded the 9cps anticipated and the broker highlights the attractive yield on offer.

A strong margin performance from Dyno Nobel Americas countered softer-than-expected margins across other segments, explains the analyst. 

Management noted a favourable 2H skew for underlying earnings, without producing any numbers.

Ord Minnett upgrades its rating to Accumulate from Hold and maintains its $3.50 target price.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.56
If IPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IPL as Buy (1) -

First half EBIT was below UBS estimates. Incitec Pivot has highlighted earnings will be favourably skewed to the second half of the explosives business, supported by ongoing recontracting and cost recoveries.

The $40m share buyback program will commence in the second half and upon completion the company will also consider additional capital management initiatives, pending the divestment of the WALA.

Once the divestment is finalised the broker expects the strategic focus will return to the proposed de-merger of the fertilisers and explosives businesses, with the objective of increasing the recurring earnings base.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.40 from $3.55.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.46
If IPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -

James Hardie Industries released its Annual Report following its FY23 results, containing important additional details with regards to efficiency gain targets underpinning earnings resilience.

Macquarie has not explicitly included these potential benefits in its estimates as it is not clear how these gains would be applied in the systemic context of the group’s strategy.

But even partial attainment would add incrementally to the resilience of operational outcomes in a tougher market context, the broker notes, and enhance longer-term competitiveness and return potential. Outperform and $43.15 target retained.

Target price is $43.15 Current Price is $37.43 Difference: $5.72
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.83, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in February.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JHX as Buy (1) -

The annual report of James Hardie Industries has reinforced the targets outlined at the FY23 result. EBIT margin targets have been simplified to more than 25% for North America and Asia-Pacific and trimmed for Europe to 7-10%.

UBS is not surprised, given prior commentary. Management has also introduced a working capital target which peaks at US$100m in FY26.

The broker considers this also positive and, given FY24 will be a tough year from a volume perspective, it provides some margin support in the face of lower volumes.

Buy rating and $46.50 target.

Target price is $46.50 Current Price is $37.43 Difference: $9.07
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.83, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in February.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Oil production has resumed at Baúna and Patola after a six-week shutdown for repairs and Karoon Energy should see flush production in excess of 40kb/d near term, Macquarie suggests, stabilising at 33-35kb/d before the onset of natural decline.

Karoon continues to carefully screen for acquisitions in Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico and a deal could see a re-rating based on diversification benefits and a stronger platform from which to fund Neon, the broker notes.

Outperform retained, target falls to $2.90 from $3.05 on natural decline expectations.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.84
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 42.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MMI as Buy (1) -

Metro Mining has made further operating and strategic improvements to Bauxite Hills, identifying a superior option for its trans-shipping operation and making a final investment decision on the expansion to 7mt.

Shaw and Partners observes the expansion is "well timed", given a strengthening bauxite market and with evidence the Indonesian export ban is beginning to have an impact.

The broker points out the company has had a "very difficult" past three years and the share price is indicative of the market's scepticism but the new management team has improved confidence, diversifying the customer base.

The Buy rating and target price of $0.06 are retained.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.041
If MMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 216% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MND as Neutral (3) -

In an attractive deal, assesses Citi, that will expand exposure to the east coast-based energy market, Monadelphous Group will initially pay $22m for Victorian-based mechanical and electrical engineering company BMC. The purchase price may be subject to adjustments.

The broker points out National Energy Resources Australia (NERA) forecasts a robust decommissioning pipeline in the offshore oil and gas market in the east coast.

The Neutral rating and $12.80 target are unchanged.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $13.04 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.36, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PWR as Add (1) -

Peter Warren Automotive will acquire a majority stake in three Warren Family Dealerships (two Toyota; one Volkswagen) for $45m, funded by debt. 

Morgans believes the acquisitions will be EPS accretive but notes shareholder approval is still required.

The broker lowers its FY23 profit forecast as port delays continue to impact the vehicle supply chain and its target is trimmed to $3.20 from $3.25. Add.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.6
If PWR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 31.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SIG as Sell (5) -

During its AGM, Sigma Healthcare reaffirmed FY24 earnings (EBIT) guidance of $26-31m though noted the introduction of 60-day dispensing would have a negative impact on the revenue of pharmacies and most likely decrease foot traffic into stores.

The policy will be phased in starting from September over a one year period, notes the analyst, giving the industry a bit of
time to manage the potential impact.

The Sell rating and 52c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.57, suggesting downside of -16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SIG as Hold (3) -

Sigma Healthcare has reiterated guidance for FY24 EBIT in the range of $26-31bn. At its annual general meeting  the company highlighted the defensive nature of its revenue as well as the cost pressures.

Management has indicated the knock-on effect of changes to dispensing in the May federal budget is too early to assess. The changes in policy are expected to impact the funding for pharmacies and possibly decrease foot traffic into stores.

Shaw and Partners considers the FY24 EBIT guidance "cautious". The Hold rating and 65c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.57, suggesting downside of -16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SKO as Buy (1) -

Following Serko's FY23 result, Citi materially upgrades its earnings forecasts to reflect much stronger-than-expected trends for Booking.com for Business. Upside is also anticipated from the recent partnership with CWT.

The new ‘hotel shop’ experience at Bookings.com delivered stronger customer conversion, which resulted in completed room-nights (on Booking.com for Business) more than doubling in the 2H, on a half-on-half basis.

When contemplating revenue growth of 40% and falling cash burn, the broker suggests the current valuation is undemanding and raises its target to $4.10 from $3.60, while maintaining its Buy rating.

The analysts also note another key positive from the result was a rise of only 3% for total cash costs in the 2H. Serko’s FY24 revenue guidance assumes modest growth from the Managed Travel business in A&NZ, in Citi's opinion.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $1.18
If SKO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.56, suggesting upside of 46.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SKO as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

After some trepidation, the market should read Serko’s FY23 result as a quality beat for the Booking.com JV, Macquarie suggests. The final instalment of development workaround the hotel shop experience is scheduled to go online in the September quarter.

Investors will likely also take comfort in healthy cash balance/burn and cash flow breakeven within reach.

While slower than the broker had originally anticipated, the result provided some comfort that the JV funnel is working well, leading to an upgrade to Outperform from Neutral.

Target rises 32% to NZ$3.51.

Current Price is $2.92. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.56, suggesting upside of 46.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SKO as Buy (1) -

Serko's FY23 net loss of -$30.5m was better than the -$36.3m forecast by Ord Minnett. As forecast by the analyst, management guidance for FY24 points to Booking.com revenue doubling.

The analyst believes the market has overlooked the likes of Serko (that may evolve into a serious player in it's industry) in taking a broadly negative approach to long-duration growth assets that have been generating negative free cash flow.

On that subject, the broker believes the company will be generating material free cashflow of $35m by FY26.

Ord Minnett also highlights the recent partnership of CWT with Booking.com, which is important for Serko  as it should improve conversion rates on the website.

The Buy rating is maintained though the target falls to $5.01 from $5.19 to allow for higher operating costs in FY24, based on management guidance.

Target price is $5.01 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $2.09
If SKO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.56, suggesting upside of 46.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Citi felt Super Retail presented a strong case at its strategy day for a sustainable path in servicing parts/consumables during the transition toward electric vehicles.

Other takeaways were the upcoming support for sales provided by major store refurbishment programs, and a forecast by management for around 800 stores by FY26, 6% above the analysts forecast.

The Buy rating and $14.50 target are maintained.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $12.52 Difference: $1.98
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.05, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUL as Add (1) -

Morgans left yesterday's investor strategy day, hosted by Super Retail, more appreciative of gains achieved during the pandemic by the business, including becoming more streamlined and efficient. It's felt the share price is yet to fully reflect these improvements.

During covid, the company improved its store format, developed and rolled out successful new store concepts, while at the same time Active loyalty Club members increased to 9.7m from 6.1m.

Supply chain and rostering systems also improved online order fulfilment, notes the analyst. The Add rating is unchanged with significant future opportunities for growth and the $15.50 target is maintained.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $12.52 Difference: $2.98
If SUL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.05, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUL as Neutral (3) -

Super Retail provided no further update to the sales trajectory at its investor briefing, instead focusing on its strategy of four core brands, store investment, supply chain, loyalty and analytics.

The priorities include refurbishments and opening new stores as well as tailoring ranges and encouraging customers to increase their average expenditure per basket.

UBS notes gross margins have risen because of pricing analytics, range optimisation and exclusive products yet promotional intensity is also rising in BCF and eroding the uplift.

The broker expects the first round of multi-year capital management initiatives in August, with special dividend and/or on-market buyback.

Neutral rating and $13.25 target maintained.

Target price is $13.25 Current Price is $12.52 Difference: $0.73
If SUL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.05, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SVR as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes ASIC has commenced civil penalty proceedings against Money3, Solvar's main consumer finance subsidiary. The company has indicated it will defend the proceedings, keen to engage with ASIC to comprehend where improvements are needed.

Bell Potter considers it unlikely, therefore, there will be any immediate impact on sales or servicing operations.

The highlighted loans were made to customers who faced financial hardship and/or were living on Centrelink payments and subsequently could not afford to make those repayments.

The broker points out this is central to the risk involved in the Money3 business, and if it leads to changes in regulations then it may have a significant effect on longer-term profitability and growth. Buy. Target is $3.01.

Target price is $3.01 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $1.315
If SVR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLC as Buy (1) -

Lottery Corp is in a soft spot, UBS asserts, with second half lottery revenue around -22% below the same point in the prior corresponding period.

Partly offsetting the weakness will be the Powerball price increases and higher retail commissions from May 19 which will have a positive impact, but predominantly in FY24.

The broker considers the revenue weakness a result of bad luck and not a sign of worsening demand or poor execution. Strong earnings growth and cash flow from FY24 is anticipated on the back of population, wage inflation, price increases and continued migration to the digital channel.

Buy rating retained. Target rises to $5.95 from $5.70.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $4.90 Difference: $1.05
If TLC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.36, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates UMG as Hold (3) -

United Malt has reported first half EBITDA in line with guidance and slightly ahead of Bell Potter's estimates. FY23 guidance has been maintained.

The broker makes few changes to its forecasts, with the exception of a higher SaaS charge in FY23. Hold rating maintained, with the share price highly dependent on Soufflet proceeding to a formal offer. Target is $5.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: $0.55
If UMG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates UMG as No Rating (-1) -

United Malt reported first half underlying profit below Macquarie's estimate, but earnings were in line with April guidance and forecast. Management has reiterated its prior FY23 guidance of $140-160m pre-SaaS costs and one-off items.

FY23 guidance assumes no further material deterioration in market conditions and assumes continued gross margin improvements in the second half will offset any unanticipated reduction in volumes due to lower beer demand.

As Macquarie is advising United Malt regarding the Malteries Soufflet bid, it is on research restriction.

Current Price is $4.45. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates UMG as Hold (3) -

Morgans adjusts its FY23 earnings (EBITDA) forecast to the lower-end of United Malt's guidance range, following a very soft 1H result, due largely to lower-than-expected volumes. Cashflow and balance sheet were materially worse than expected.

Thankfully a $5.00/share offer is on the table from Malteries Soufflet, though the analysts realise shares may trade at a discount to this level, with the uncertainty over chances for a lower offer price.

Also, it's thought the transaction may take until the end of the year to complete.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: $0.55
If UMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates UMG as Hold (3) -

As far as Ord Minnett is concerned, 1H results for United Malt take a back seat to the prior $5.00 offer by Malteries Soufflet, which is in the middle of a ten-week due diligence program.

Should the deal fall through, the broker would revert to its stand-alone $4.00 valuation. It's felt a higher offer is unlikely from Malteries Soufflet. Alternate bidders are considered unlikely, given the strategic role Ord Minnett serves to Malteries Soufflet.

The $4.75 target and Hold rating are maintained. First half underlying earnings were marginally above management's expectation, notes the broker.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: $0.3
If UMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates UMG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

United Malt's first half earnings were slightly ahead of recently downgraded guidance while FY23 guidance was reaffirmed. This was underpinned by improved demand and margins, although UBS is conservative and forecasts the lower end of the EBITDA range of $140-160m.

A strong recovery is expected in FY24. The broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy after lifting the target to Malteries Soufflet's indicative bid price of $5.00, from $3.80.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: $0.55
If UMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources