Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates 360 as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has updated forecasts ahead of the release of Life360's Sep Q result on Wednesday, and following the release last month of global monthly active users as at end-September. There is no change to other key forecasts.

The broker continues to forecast 2023 revenue and earnings consistent with, or slightly above, the guidance range.

Buy and $11.00 target retained.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $7.96 Difference: $3.04
If 360 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates A4N as Speculative Buy (1) -

Alpha HPA has announced a $40m strategic equity placement, corner-stoned by AustralianSuper and Orica ((ORI)), to fund the company’s Alpha Sapphire Phase B rollout and working capital.

This will fully fund the roll-out of 50 sapphire growth units under agreement with Austrian-based technology provider Ebner-Fametec, Bell Potter reports. Alpha Sapphire is Alpha’s downstream sapphire glass manufacturing subsidiary which will add value to the company’s HPA production.

(HPA = ultra-high purity alumina). Bell Potter has lifted its target to $1.68 from $1.54 and retains Speculative Buy.

Target price is $1.68 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.795
If A4N meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ACF as Buy (1) -

Acrow Formwork and Construction Services has acquired MI Scaffold at a cost of $36.4m. The company provides industrial scaffolding, access and rigging services in North and Central Queensland, and maintains a highly recurring customer base. 

With MI Scaffold reporting an average three-year historical revenue of $33.5m and normalised earnings of $6.6m to FY23, Shaw and Partners expects the purchase will provide greater recurring revenue for Acrow. It also expects the acquisition to provide a scale platform for national growth.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.20 from $1.15.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $0.32
If ACF meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.20, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALL as Overweight (1) -

For Aristocrat Leisure's FY23 results on November 15, Morgan Stanley forecasts earnings (EBITA) of $1,804m, a year-on-year rise of 13.3%.

The results should be supported by land-based strength in the Americas and currency tailwinds, according to the broker, while Digital should remain challenged with management guidance for "modestly lower" profit.

The Overweight rating and $43 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $40.29 Difference: $2.71
If ALL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.66, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Buy (1) -

Ahead of the release of its second half results, ANZ Bank has disclosed some large and notable items for the period. The impact of these sees Citi's expected earnings for the half decrease -3.0% to $3.897m.

The change to earnings was driven by a 2.3% increase to operating expenditure, slightly offset by a 0.3% increase to revenue. 

The Buy rating and target price of $27.00 are retained.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $25.47 Difference: $1.53
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.83, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts, upon initial assessment, conclude ANZ Bank's FY23 cash earnings have fallen short of forecasts by -4% (Citi) and -1.5% (consensus) respectively.

Even though the "miss" doesn't appear to be significant, the analysts highlight the point that, compositionally, this is a "weak" result nevertheless.

Both market revenues and NIM proved a disappointment, offset by strong fee income and several one-offs. Citi also thinks opting for a bonus dividend instead of a buyback means there's no benefit in terms of shares count moving forward.

Buy. Target $27.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $25.47 Difference: $1.53
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.83, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Buy (1) -

ANZ Bank has this morning released FY23 financials and UBS, upon initial assessment, concludes cash EPS marks a "slight miss" against expectations but there's a much greater disappointment in the NIM, which has fallen by more than what was expected.

It appears the bank has sought to offer compensation through a much higher dividend payout (94c in total, of which 81c is 65% franked and 13c unfranked).

The broker suspects the NIM disappointment might reflect ANZ Bank growing above market during a period of heightened competition and "possibly irrational pricing".

Buy. Target $26.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $25.47 Difference: $0.53
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.83, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates APM as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter highlights a disappointing AGM statement from APM Human Services International, pointing to lower first half earnings year on year due to lower volumes in employment, as well as interest costs and higher tax rates.

Since coming to market the company has made a number of acquisitions, which shareholders could reasonably expect to be driving improving levels of profitability, the brokers suggests. Instead, margins have fallen, debt levels have risen, and cash conversion has been
weak.

Bell Potter believes the shares are likely to remain weak until there is a clearer path to improvement and downgrades to Hold from Buy. Target falls to $1.90 from $2.21.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.14
If APM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 79.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APM as Overweight (1) -

While APM Human Services International's AGM trading update suggests muted near-term growth, Morgan Stanley believes FY25 (and potentially the 2H of FY24) prospects are looking attractive.

Currently, low unemployment and lower case loads from higher margin programs are proving headwinds to 1H earnings, note the analysts.

Case loads for the September quarter fell by around -8-9% compared to the previous corresponding period for Disability Employment Services and Workforce Australia.

Price target $2.60. Overweight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.84
If APM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 79.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AVH as Buy (1) -

Avita Medical  reported nine-month year to date revenues increased by 44% year on year, the Sep Q loss at the EBIT line saw a decrease and gross margins an increase, Bell Potter reports.

The company expects to present new data to the FDA in late February and recommence the 180-day review period for Recell Go from March. Provided there are no further delays, Avita anticipates approval for Recell Go in May.

Long term guidance includes an expectation for profitability in 2025 irrespective of the progress with the vitiligo indication.

Speculative Buy and $6.85 target retained.

Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $3.71 Difference: $3.14
If AVH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.40, suggesting upside of 79.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AVH as Accumulate (2) -

A big third quarter for Avita Medical saw the company report a third quarter loss of -US$9m, down from a -US$10m loss in the previous quarter, alongside announcing an agreement with distribution partner PolyMedics to lead expansion into Germany, Austria and Switzerland.

Ord Minnett points out the company intends to launch into these new regions in from the beginning of 2024, but also intends to identify additional distribution partnerships for Australia and additional European regions. 

The broker feels the shares remain undervalued, and expects the expansion plan will help provide a path to profitability by late 2025. The Accumulate rating and target price of $5.60 are retained.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $3.71 Difference: $1.89
If AVH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.40, suggesting upside of 79.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BWP as Hold (3) -

A number of A-REITs appear cheap, says Ord Minnett, following a sell off in recent months. According to the broker these REITs showed resilient performance through the August earnings season, and Ord Minnett expects more of the same in the medium-term.

Although less undervalued than some peers, trading at a -6% discount to the broker's target price, Ord Minnett finds BWP Trust appealing, and notes the REIT is a standout in terms of financial strength with defensive revenue and a strong investment grade credit rating. 

The Hold rating and target price of $3.60 are retained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $0.2
If BWP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.52, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates C79 as Buy (1) -

Chrysos has raised $75m through its institutional placement, with funds raised primarily being marked to support the deployment of new Photon Assay units, including a potential manufacturing capacity expansion beyond eighteen units per year. 

Shaw and Partners highlights the raise leaves Chrysos in a strengthened capital position, and should benefit discussions to expand debt facilities, and reduces the broker's assumed level of debt funding. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $7.80 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.07 Difference: $0.73
If C79 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CIP as Hold (3) -

A number of A-REITs appear cheap, says Ord Minnett, following a sell off in recent months. According to the broker these REITs showed resilient performance through the August earnings season, and Ord Minnett expects more of the same in the medium-term.

The broker considers Centuria Industrial REIT well placed to benefit from strong leasing conditions in industrial markets, but does maintain some reservations around the REIT's financial health. 

The Hold rating and target price of $3.10 are retained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.11
If CIP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNB as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie sees a pathway for first production by the 2H of 2025 at the Greater Duchess operation after Carnaby Resources revealed a maiden resource.

A current scoping study is expected to lead into a pre-feasibility study by late 2024, explains the broker, which now assumes two equity capital raisings to fund exploration, studies and the Greater Duchess construction. Around $60m in debt in 3Q FY25 is also assumed.

The target falls by -35% to $1.10. Outperform.

The maiden resource was for 21.8Mt at 1.30% copper and 0.2g/t  gold for 283kt of copper/148koz of gold (61% indicated).

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.41
If CNB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DHG as Lighten (4) -

Given shifts in market share, Ord Minnett now considers Domain Holdings Australia the more discretionary listings platform when compared to REA Group ((REA)). 

Based on results from REA Group, Ord Minnett assumes Domain has been ceding market share in Queensland and Western Australia, although management emphasised volume declines were offset by price increases.

Ord Minnett notes Domain has the option to raise or lower prices in the coming year to avoid permanent effect. The Lighten rating and target price of $2.50 are retained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: minus $1.07 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.27, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DXS as Underweight (5) -

Back on November 1, management at the Dexus investor day stated its 2030 target to reach 5 times external funds under management (FUM) versus balance sheet assets compared to 2.5 times today.

While this outcome would unlock substantial value for shareholders, the broker is cautious on the timeline for execution, especially as equity flows into real assets remain subdued.

Also Office, which accounts for around 28% of the REIT's FUM, remains at risk of further devaluation, in the analysts' opinion. 

The new target implies organic FUM growth of $5-6bn/year compared to the prior average of just $1.3bn/year equity flows, points out the broker.

The Underweight rating and $8.10 target are left unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.08 Difference: $1.02
If DXS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.64, suggesting upside of 25.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Gold producers are currently generating strong operational cashflows and healthy margins on the back of higher Australian dollar gold prices of around $3,000/oz, notes Morgans.

Uncertain macroeconomic conditions and central bank buying drove the Australian dollar gold price around 5.8% higher in the September quarter, explains the analyst.

The broker envisages two scenarios supporting a favourable outlook for gold. Higher interest rates for longer may result in a recession and significant gold price upside, or a softer landing (with tighter monetary policy) could see support for gold via stable bond yields and a weaker US dollar.

The Hold rating and $3.40 target is maintained for Evolution Mining.

Regis Resources remains Morgans' top pick from stocks under coverage in the Gold sector

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FDV as Add (1) -

A 3Q update by Frontier Digital Ventures revealed ongoing solid progress across the majority of the company's portfolio and Morgans continues to be attracted by the long-term growth profile and earnings potential.

Revenue fell by -27% on the previous corresponding period but rose by 9% on the sequential quarter, and the company registered its third consecutive quarter of positive operating cashflow.

Once prevailing headwinds for the Zameen business normalise, the analyst believes the company will be well positioned.

The Add rating and 76c target are unchanged after the broker's upgraded earnings forecasts were offset by a higher assumed discount rate to reflect higher interest rates.

Target price is $0.76 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.345
If FDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HPI as Accumulate (2) -

A number of A-REITs appear cheap, says Ord Minnett, following a sell off in recent months. According to the broker these REITs showed resilient performance through the August earnings season, and Ord Minnett expects more of the same in the medium-term.

The broker considers Hotel Property Investments an attractive option for risk-tolerate investors, with a distribution yield around 7% and a higher gearing than most peers at 38%. However, a higher covenant limit of 60% provides substantial headroom. 

The Accumulate rating and target price of $3.30 are retained.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.56
If HPI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

Recent results for German-based Allianz Group showing an acceleration in Australian pricing provide a useful positive cross read for margins for Insurance Australia Group, suggests Morgan Stanley.

The Equal-weight rating and $5.45 target price are retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.85, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

After a first reading of today's FY23, Citi concludes Dyno Nobel Americas helped Incitec Pivot deliver a better-than-expected performance, beating forecasts by circa 9%.

Assuming Waggaman sells, the company has committed to a $1.4bn capital return. The dividend has slightly surprised to the upside.

While Dyno Nobel has beaten expectations, the broker notes management predicts the full positive impact of progress on repricing and re-contracting will emerge through 2024 and 2025.

Phosphate Hill maintenance will be a negative factor in 1H FY24. Neutral. Target $2.90.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KMD as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie explains KMD Brands provided limited colour on recent trading at the AGM, with a full update due in mid-December post key Black Friday trading. While still noting a challenging consumer, management expects the gross margin will remain resilient.

The broker lowers earnings forecasts in the expectation trading conditions remaining tough, though updated currency estimates result in an unchanged 70c target. The Neutral rating is also maintained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If KMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.80, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LNW as Hold (3) -

Following 3Q results by Light & Wonder showing a strong performance across all segments, Ord Minnett raises its target by 3% to $140. 

Earnings (EBITDA) for Gaming (the largest division) rose by 22%, while revenue and profits are tracking ahead of the broker's forecasts.

The installed base of leased machines continues to grow in North America (NA), notes the analyst, while outright electronic gaming machine sales are gaining from higher capital expenditure by gaming venues, particularly outside NA.

The Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $131.62 Difference: $8.38
If LNW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHF as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi finds nib Holdings attractive, noting ARHI is reporting stronger growth than a year ago, with policyholders up 1.3% in the four months to the end of October, while IIHI and New Zealand are showing decent momentum. 

The broker pointed out claims inflation is picking up amid some out of cycle contract renegotiation with hospitals, but it expects nib Holdings is well placed to manage, particularly in the shorter term. 

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target price decreases to $8.35 from $8.55.

Target price is $8.35 Current Price is $7.29 Difference: $1.06
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.30, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -

Following AGM commentary, Morgan Stanley notes growth for Australian Residents Health Insurance (ARHI) policy holders is tracking in line with guidance.

The broker also explains any potential downside risk to Travel sales/revenue is offset by higher policy numbers, and management also expects to launch a new product later this half.

Equal Weight rating and $8.15 target retained. Industry view: In Line. 

Target price is $8.15 Current Price is $7.29 Difference: $0.86
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.30, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NHF as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Following AGM commentary by nib Holdings, which included a July to October FY24 business update, Morgans makes relatively nominal positive changes to its forecasts, which are offset by a higher assumed discount rate.

Excluding the ending of a Qantas Airways ((QAN)) contract, year-to-date group revenue increased by around 13% on the previous corresponding period, which the analyst considers a "relatively robust" outcome.

The target falls to $8.38 from $8.77 and the broker's rating is upgraded to Add from Hold on valuation.

Target price is $8.38 Current Price is $7.29 Difference: $1.09
If NHF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.30, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie describes a "solid" 1Q result for News Corp, with earnings (EBITDA) exceeding forecasts by the broker and consensus by 5% and 10%, respectively, due to better revenue trends across the majority of segments.

While advertising markets across most parts of the world were not as soft as anticipated, management remains cautious. The analyst observes Binge experienced its first quarter of subscriber declines, pointing to some consumer weakness.

Macquarie's target rises to $33 from $32 to reflect a higher assumed probability of breakup of the conglomerate to 40% from 20%. It's felt recent third party agitation for a divestment of REA Group ((REA)) has helped fueled recent share price gains.

Management alluded to a structure review, which the analyst concedes is a one-to-two year occurrence. Neutral.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $34.75 Difference: minus $1.75 (current price is over target).
If NWS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NWS as Overweight (1) -

News Corp's 1Q revenue was in line with the consensus estimate while earnings were a 10% beat, underpinned by an impressive turnaround in Books, suggests Morgan Stanley.

A strong cyclical recovery is underway at REA Group ((REA)), in the broker's view, and it's felt the market under-estimates the upside from this investment. Also, the Dow Jones segment is experiencing ongoing solid growth, note the analysts.

Overweight rating. US$27.50 target price. Industry view: Attractive. Before any holding company discount is applied, Morgan Stanley's sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation is US$32/share.

Current Price is $34.75. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NWS as Hold (3) -

News Corp reported a 1% group revenue increase year-on-year in the first quarter to US$2.5bn, with net income of US$90m. Ord Minnett finds the company well placed, and possessing the editorial and financial resources, to prevail long-term in the competitive digital age.

With Ord Minnett forecasting 7% adjusted earnings for the full year, 3% growth in the first quarter disappointed. But the broker says this can be attributed to short term noise, including unfavourable currency movements. 

The Hold rating and target price of $32.80 are retained.

Target price is $32.80 Current Price is $34.75 Difference: minus $1.95 (current price is over target).
If NWS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORI as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett was impressed by the very strong cash flow revealed in FY23 results for Orica, even though underlying net profit was a -4% miss against the broker's forecast.

Management guided to an unquantified FY24 increase in earnings (EBIT) from continuing operations and upgraded the three-year outlook for average return on net assets (RONA) to 12-14% from 10.5-13%.

As customers are seeking both productivity gains and sustainability outcomes, which is driving new technology and increased adoption of premium products, Ord Minnett expects Orica will ultimately benefit.

The Hold rating and $16.50 target are retained.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $15.45 Difference: $1.05
If ORI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.73, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

Recent results for German-based Allianz Group showing a slowing in premium growth for Global Corporate & Specialty provides a negative cross read for QBE Insurance, suggests Morgan Stanley.

The Overweight rating and $18.30 target are retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $18.30 Current Price is $15.52 Difference: $2.78
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.16, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REA as Neutral (3) -

REA Group's 1Q update was largely in line with Macquarie's forecasts and reaffirms the broker's view for ongoing gains in listings market share against competitor Domain Holdings Australia ((DHG)).

Management noted listings remain slightly below the six-year average and provided first-time FY24 guidance for listings growth of between 3-5%.

While the broker lowers FY24-26 forecasts on softer listing estimates, the $155 target is unchanged. The Neutral rating is based on both a full valuation and cost investment required from FY25.

Target price is $155.00 Current Price is $156.22 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $157.50, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates REA as Overweight (1) -

REA Group's trading update revealed no major surprises to Morgan Stanley though a strong rebound in listings is supportive of the broker's Overweight rating.

Management now expects New Listings volumes for FY24  of between 3-5%, up from the prior flat prediction.

National residential buy listings rose by1%, with a surge in October of 16% year-on-year, which was cycling a very weak previous corresponding period, caution the analysts.

The 1Q results show the group's significant price/yield lift is sticking, observes the broker, while costs continue to be well managed.

The $200 target is retained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $156.22 Difference: $43.78
If REA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $157.50, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates REA as Hold (3) -

Morgans makes only minor FY24 forecast changes following REA Group's better-than-anticipated 1Q trading update given resilience shown by new listings. Sydney and Melbourne listings increased by 16% and 14%, respectively, on the previous corresponding period.

Revenue and operating earnings (EBITDA) for Q1 rose by 12% and 13%, respectively on the previous corresponding period.

The two key positives for the broker from the update were the 1% new listings growth nationally and the 25% revenue growth for REA India.

The Hold rating and $155 target are unchanged.

Target price is $155.00 Current Price is $156.22 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $157.50, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates REA as Lighten (4) -

Given shifts in market share, Ord Minnett now considers Domain Holdings Australia ((DHG)) the more discretionary listings platform when compared to REA Group. 

The broker finds REA Group on track for a "bumper year", having extended its competitive lead over Domain Holdings Australia. The former's new buy listings increased 1% year-on-year in the September quarter, while the latter's declined -3%. 

The Lighten rating and target price of $109.00 are retained.

Target price is $109.00 Current Price is $156.22 Difference: minus $47.22 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $157.50, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RED as Hold (3) -

Gold producers are currently generating strong operational cashflows and healthy margins on the back of higher gold prices of around $3,000/oz, notes Morgans.

Uncertain macroeconomic conditions and central bank buying drove the Australian dollar gold price around 5.8% higher in the September quarter, explains the analyst.

The broker envisages two scenarios supporting a favourable outlook for gold. Higher interest rates for longer may result in a recession and significant gold price upside, or a softer landing (with tighter monetary policy) could see support for gold via stable bond yields and a weaker US dollar.

The Hold rating and 30c target is maintained for Red 5.

Regis Resources remains Morgans' top pick from stocks under coverage in the Gold sector.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: minus $0.035 (current price is over target).
If RED meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Equal-weight (3) -

Following an investor briefing by Ramsay Health Care, Morgan Stanley notes volumes are improving, with surgical activity above FY19 levels. Maternity and mental health volumes, however, remain below pre-covid levels by around -10% and -12% respectively.

The broker still questions the private hospital value proposition (i.e. pay more and skip the public sector queue) whereby participants are exposed to very high out-of-pocket charges.

During a site visit by the analysts, management stated margin improvements should arise from improving labour productivity and "PHI negotiations delivering improved indexation rate outcomes to close the cost/indexation gap". 

The Equal-weight rating and $53.60 target are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $53.60 Current Price is $53.93 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $58.20, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RRL as Add (1) -

Gold producers are currently generating strong operational cashflows and healthy margins on the back of higher Australian dollar gold prices of around $3,000/oz, notes Morgans.

Uncertain macroeconomic conditions and central bank buying drove the Australian dollar gold price around 5.8% higher in the September quarter, explains the analyst.

The broker envisages two scenarios supporting a favourable outlook for gold. Higher interest rates for longer may result in a recession and significant gold price upside, or a softer landing (with tighter monetary policy) could see support for gold via stable bond yields and a weaker US dollar.

Regis Resources remains Morgans top pick from stocks under coverage in the Gold sector with positive upcoming catalysts for  McPhillamys and the rolling-off of a lower-price hedge book in FY24. The company also trades at a cheaper valuation than peers.

The Add rating and $2.01 target are retained.

Target price is $2.01 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: $0.23
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -

Recent results for German-based Allianz Group showing an acceleration in Australian pricing provide a useful positive cross read for margins for Suncorp Group, suggests Morgan Stanley.

The broker retains its Overweight rating and $15.70 target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $13.32 Difference: $2.38
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.23, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TYR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes consensus is underestimating the impact of higher interest income via higher interest rates for Tyro Payments even though transaction volume growth is being impacted for the same reason.

While upgrading its FY24 earnings (EBITDA) forecast to just above the top end of management guidance for $52-58m, the broker's higher assumed risk-free rate and lower outer year forecasts contribute to the $1.60 target, down from $1.85.

The Outperform rating is unchanged.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.62
If TYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting upside of 80.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates XRO as Overweight (1) -

After a further review of Xero's H1 results, Morgan Stanley makes only minor forecast changes and stays with an Overweight rating and $125 target. Industry view: Attractive.

The broker's initial research was summarised as follows:

While H1 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) for Xero were slight misses, Morgan Stanley also points to better free-cash flow delivery and positive average revenue per user (ARPU) growth.

The broker also highlights strong free cash flow (FCF) of NZ$106.7m, which lifts the rule of 40 metric to 34% from 32%. A review of the US business also shows a focused growth opportunity with a measured cost base, in the analysts' view.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $99.93 Difference: $25.07
If XRO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $111.63, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources