Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates ALX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses a mixed 3Q traffic performance by Atlas Arteria though also highlights strong rises for tolls. Cash balances are expected to comfortably support a 40c dividend for FY24.

Core traffic at APRR was broadly in line, the Skyway performance was disappointing and Greenway traffic was encouraging, according to the analyst.

Outperform. Target falls to $5.20 from $5.26.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $0.23
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.25, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley is anticipating a "neutral" response to Atlas Arteria's 3Q2024 results which revealed traffic rising 1% for APRR on the quarter or 6% on the previous year which were in line with the broker's forecasts. 

Chicago Skyway's traffic fell -6% on the previous quarter and came in -9% under the analyst's expectations because of soft summer leisure traffic and flat industrial activity.

Later this month the 2025 French Budget could include corporate tax surcharges, with final legislation later this year. New CEO Wehby starts on Nov 18.

Equal-weight. Target $5.55. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $0.58
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.25, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie marginally increases its EPS estimates for AMP following reporting of 3Q flows showing a slight improvement in net flows and investment performance.

In Platforms, Assets under management (AUM) increased to $78.1bn from $74.7bn in Q2, while in Superannuation & Investments AUM rose to $55.8bn from $54bn.

The broker's target rises by 3% to $1.34. Neutral.

Target price is $1.34 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: minus $0.155 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley flags ANZ Bank is likely to offer a weaker outlook for earnings expansion in the short term compared to other banks at 2H24 results.

The analyst is seeking updates in detail on the Suncorp Bank synergies, as well as some feedback on APRA's issues with non-financial risk management.

No surprise to the dividend is anticipated while 2H24 revenue growth and margins will remain in focus for Morgan Stanley. Half-on-half earnings trends on Institutional and NZ businesses because of falling interest rates, and expectations of lower rates are also in focus.

For ANZ Bank, the $27.50 target and Underweight rating are retained. Industry View In-Line.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $31.59 Difference: minus $4.09 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.41, suggesting downside of -13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AOV as Buy (1) -

Citi observes Amotiv's AGM update was in line with expectations.The market is anticipated to take the update as "positive" as well as a surprise 5% shares buyback.

Management highlighted 1Q25 revenue growth of 3.5%, slightly below consensus estimates at 4%. There was nothing in the commentary to infer any possible EPS downgrades at this stage, the analyst suggests.

The broker notes Amotiv is pointing to "slightly stronger" EBITDA growth in 2H25, although there are risks around higher freight costs as per what Nick Scali ((NCK)) announced today.

Buy rated with a $12.65 target price.

Target price is $12.65 Current Price is $9.99 Difference: $2.66
If AOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.15, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes the AFR report of BHP Group's Olympic Dam production impacted by damaged transmission towers from storms in South Australia.

The analyst cites a potential similar power disruption in 2016 when the copper operations were in a 15-day halt which cost the group -$137m or around an 8kt loss of production. Olympic Dam remains the largest copper division in South Australia.

Post maintenance in 1Q25, Morgan Stanley notes production at the mine is expected to increase. This is viewed as having a "negligible" impact on BHP Group.

Overweight. Target $47.10. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $47.10 Current Price is $42.06 Difference: $5.04
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.35, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Add (1) -

Creating material positive upside risk, suggests Morgans, BHP Group delivered a "strong" 1Q operational result with production across key assets largely in line with the broker's forecasts.

The broker feels the group is well placed to benefit from an "inevitable" sector recovery thanks to improving global growth conditions.

The company continues to defend the cost base across its business while delivering in-line operational results and progressing major growth projects, enthuse the analysts.

Management maintained guidance for all FY25 production volumes and unit costs.

Target weakens to $48.00 from $48.30. Add retained.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $42.06 Difference: $5.94
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.35, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Sell (5) -

Beach Energy remains in the "too difficult" category for Citi despite FY25 earnings estimated to be over 20% higher with cash flow over 10% better than expected due to the company achieving additional swap cargoes for Waitsia.

The analyst highlights FY26 earnings will be under pressure as the swaps unwind.

Under Citi's forecast, a weakening oil price will leave Beach Energy very exposed with an unhedged position.

Citi retains a Sell rating with a $1.10 target price.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie suggests Beach Energy is on track to meet the top end of management's FY25 production guidance following 1Q production in line with the broker's forecast. It's felt the Waitsia ramp-up will be the major 2H swing factor.

Management reiterated the schedule and budget at Waitsia, despite poor productivity delaying first gas into the plant, explains the analyst. Otway production was 5% ahead of the consensus forecast, aided by a full quarter at the Enterprise project, notes the broker.

The Neutral rating and $1.35 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.1
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Underweight (5) -

Key takeaways from Beach Energy's 1Q25 update for Morgan Stanley included an 8% lift in quarterly production or 15% on the previous corresponding period. This was better than the broker's forecasts and consensus estimates with Otway rising 24% on the 4Q24.

Sales revenue was also better-than-expected and capex lower than anticipated.

Stage 2 of Waitsia for first gas in early 2025 was highlighted with Thylacine West (Otway) first gas expected by October-end.

Target price remains at $1.23. Underweight. Sector call In-Line. The AGM is due on Nov 13.

Target price is $1.23 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Management at Beach Energy maintained FY25 production guidance after releasing consensus-beating 1Q revenue and production numbers, thanks to very strong gas output from the Otway basin operations, explains Ord Minnett.

More delays at the Waitsia gas project in WA were a key disappointment for the analyst.

The company experienced its first quarter of positive free cash flow (FCF) since FY22. Ord Minnett highlights strong (and getting stronger) cash flow prospects which should result in greater shareholder returns.

Unchanged Buy rating and $1.65 target.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.4
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BPT as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights Beach Energy reported better than expected Sept quarter results with production and sales revenue ahead of both the broker's and consensus estimates.

The analyst notes stronger flow rates at the mature assets including Western Flank and BassGas from works conducted.

Thylacine West is due to come on stream by Oct end, while Moomba CCS is now operational. UBS stresses these two projects with Waitsia Stage 2 bring the company closer to an "inflection" in production by FY26.

UBS raises EPS estimates by 2%-4% for 2024 to 2026.

Target price slips to $1.55 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.3
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CGF as Buy (1) -

In the worst performance in more than a decade, highlights Ord Minnett, Challenger's 1Q update revealed annuity net flows of -$165m, a fall of -0.8% in the value of the company's book.

A drag from shorter-dated annuities outweighed a rise in longer-dated annuity sales, explains the analyst.

Because of an unfavourable pricing environment, management has slowed the reinvestment of its fixed-term products into shorter-dated annuities, notes the broker.

The target falls to $7.85 from $7.95. Buy.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $6.15 Difference: $1.7
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.81, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CSL as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter believes CSL can achieve its guidance of “annual double-digit earnings growth” over the medium-term, despite more challenging near-term prospects for the Seqirus and Vifor divisions.

Generic iron competition is providing a headwind for Vifor, while lower flu vaccine demand is weighing on Seqirus, explain the analysts.

For the near-term, the broker forecasts the Behring segment, which currently accounts for 72% of revenue, will generate topline growth and margin expansion for the group.

The broker begins research coverage with a Buy rating, noting the current PE ratio is below five and ten-year historical averages by -18% and -8%, respectively. A $345 target is set.

Target price is $345.00 Current Price is $300.58 Difference: $44.42
If CSL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $333.46, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Citi reiterates CSL and Sanofi continue to be leaders in the flu market as competitive innovators such as Moderna's combination vaccine (covid/flu) await likely approval in 2025/26.

The broker also highlights in advance of the company's virtual R&D Investor Day on Oct 22, new product launches are forecast to be limited outside its cell-based flu vaccine, ready for launch in 2026/27, and Garadacimab (haemophilia).

Buy rating with $345 target price unchanged.

Target price is $345.00 Current Price is $300.58 Difference: $44.42
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $333.46, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DTL as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS upgrades Data#3 to Neutral from Sell on the back of a fall of -18% in the stock price since August results with much of the election risk now discounted in the share price.

The analyst reiterates belief in the company as being well run with exposure to structural IT spend which should support an 11% compound average growth rate in EPS from FY25 to FY28.

Some weakness is flagged as possible for FY25 with a risk of budget cuts from the Qld government and risks to Federal Government spending in in late 2025, post election.

Target price falls -8% to $8. Neutral rated.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.39 Difference: $0.61
If DTL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.88, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVT as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

A lack of transparency from EVT Ltd around property values, earnings volatility and extraneous, uncontrollable events such as Hollywood strikes, are believed to contributing factors to the share price trading at a discount to fair value, according to Citi.

The analyst believes there are signs from management a change is building with a shift to prioritising hotels and moving cinemas to non-core.

The target price is increased to $12.37 from $11.32 with an upgrade to Buy from Neutral. EVT Ltd Chairman indicated at the AGM he would like to see a higher share price, Citi notes.

Target price is $12.73 Current Price is $10.84 Difference: $1.89
If EVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FLT as Buy (1) -

Citi still requires more detail from Flight Centre Travel on on 2Q sequential growth and 2H skew, following last week's trading update. Target $24.35. Buy.

At this juncture the broker suggests implied negative revisions to earnings forecasts from the broker's first take (see summary below) may be less severe than first thought after adjusting for past treatment around non-cash amortisation of convertible notes.

Citi's first take on Flight Centre Travel's 1Q25 update is that performance looks below consensus although the market update lacks details.

With limited insights, the analyst assesses there has been a fall in revenue margin which has possibly resulted in a profit margin only slightly higher above the previous year.

Citi finds the update contrasts to reported strength in airline/hotel volumes and prices.

Target price is $24.35 Current Price is $17.20 Difference: $7.15
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.81, suggesting upside of 37.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FLT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects the negative impact on Flight Centre Travel from airfare deflation will slow in the 2H of FY25. In the meantime, the broker lowers its FY25 forecast total transaction value (TTV) growth to 3.5% from 5.6%.

Management has guided to FY25 profit being "heavily 2H weighted". The broker explains the 2H skew has increased due to organic growth in Leisure and the Scott Dunn acquisition.

The analyst still expects Corporate TTV growth will outpace Leisure supported by a gradual return to pre-pandemic like-for-like corporate growth rates and market share gains.

Outperform rating retained. Target price falls by -7% to $23.34.

Target price is $23.34 Current Price is $17.20 Difference: $6.14
If FLT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.81, suggesting upside of 37.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FLT as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett lowers its FY25-27 EPS forecasts for Flight Centre Travel by -17%, -13% and -14%, respectively, due to challenging economic conditions weighing upon the Corporate division in Q1.

For the Leisure division, the Q1 performance met the broker's forecast and management is expecting 4-5% volume growth in Australian outbound.

A negative factor for earnings in both the Corporate and Leisure divisions, explains Ord Minnett, is the material decline in airfares. This makes some overrides (a portion of the commission earned by the sub-agent) more difficult to achieve.

Buy, Target falls to $22.51 from $26.79.

Target price is $22.51 Current Price is $17.20 Difference: $5.31
If FLT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.81, suggesting upside of 37.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FLT as Buy (1) -

UBS observes 1Q25 trading update from Flight Centre Travel was slightly higher than 1Q24 across most metrics, but the analyst stresses it is too premature for conclusions as there are some "inconsistencies" between the month-to-month trading.

Within the results, the analyst points to ticket price deflation which should boost higher volumes in both corporate and leisure.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -11% in FY25 to -4% for FY28. Management is expected to offer more guidance at the November 14 AGM with UBS noting profits should be skewed to 2H25.

Target price declines to $23.50 from $26.80. The fall in the share price of -20% on the results announcement is viewed by UBS as overdone.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $17.20 Difference: $6.3
If FLT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.81, suggesting upside of 37.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates GL1 as Buy (1) -

Global Lithium Resources reported 1Q25 results which revealed further progress at Manna, Shaw and Partners highlights including potential to expand the estimated lithium resource of 51.6mt.

The company finished the quarter with cash on hand of $21.5m which is viewed by the broker as offering plenty of scope for ongoing development. 

Shaw and Partners believes Global Lithium Resources is well positioned for a recovery in lithium prices.No changes made to earnings forecasts. Buy rating and $2.20 target retained.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $1.975
If GL1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 878% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 437.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GMD as Buy (1) -

Following last week's quarterly activities report and Bell Potter's higher gold price forecasts, the broker raises its target for Genesis Minerals to $2.80 from $2.55. Buy.

Production and costs were in line with management guidance for Q1 but the average gold sale price of $3,723/oz beat the analysts' $3,430/oz forecast.

Management maintained FY25 production guidance at between 190koz to 210koz at a cost (AISC) of $2,200-$2,400/oz.

Bell Potter's gold price forecasts for FY25-27 rise by 11%, 10% and 5%, respectively, to $3,820/oz, $3,621/oz, and $3,415/oz.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0.5
If GMD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.62, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTM as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades lithium earnings forecasts on the back of a cautious short-term outlook and reduced lithium price expectations. The broker forecasts a balanced market in FY26, post the deferral of planned projects from troubles with financing.

The analyst stresses some de-stocking in the peak Sept-Oct season, but production has started to trend higher, which is likely to increase inventories into year end.

Arcadium Lithium is downgraded to Neutral from Buy with the stock trading near target price. Citi's estimates highlight the Rio Tinto ((RIO)) bid implies a longer-term lithium price of US$20k/t or US$1699/t spodumene.

Patriot Battery Metals ((PMT)) is the only Buy rating left in the sector but Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)) is the preferred lithium company exposure as the broker believes Pilbara is most exposed to any change in market sentiment such as an EV stimulus.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $8.23 Difference: $0.37
If LTM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.94, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades lithium earnings forecasts on the back of a cautious short-term outlook and reduced lithium price expectations. The broker forecasts a balance market in FY26, post the deferral of planned projects from troubles with financing.

The analyst stresses some de-stocking in the peak Sept-Oct season, but production has started to trend higher, which is likely to increase inventories into year end.

Mineral Resources is downgraded to Neutral from Buy with the stock trading around the target price.

Patriot Battery Metals ((PMT)) is the only Buy rating left in the sector but Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)) is the preferred lithium company exposure as the broker believes Pilbara is most exposed to any change in market sentiment such as an EV stimulus.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $45.86 Difference: $4.14
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.43, suggesting upside of 26.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Overweight (1) -

National Australia Bank is the preferred bank exposure for Morgan Stanley under an economic "soft-landing" scenario with expectations of a robust improvement in economic activity in 2H25 in Australia.

The analyst will focus on mortgage growth expectations compared to the industry as well as the anticipated "pipeline" for loan growth for SMEs in the upcoming 2H24 results.

With only $0.6bn in buyback left and a strong CET1 of around 12%, another $1bn buyback is forecast by Morgan Stanley to be announced.

Target price $38 unchanged with Overweight rating. Industry View In-Line. 

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $39.18 Difference: minus $1.18 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.77, suggesting downside of -17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -

Citi observes a softer than anticipated trading update from Nick Scali at the AGM.

The analyst highlights the extent of weakness in the gross margin decline as well as weaker sales for A&NZ.

Management guided to 1H25 net profit of $28m which is below consensus estimates by -22%. Gross margins appear to have retraced by -140bps to 63.6% from higher freight charges.

The update is expected to weigh on the stock price and last week's stronger labour data are viewed by Citi as a negative for the FY25 sales outlook.

Buy rated. $16.53 target price.

Target price is $16.53 Current Price is $15.12 Difference: $1.41
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.26, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

Orica's restructuring to a more diversified mining solutions company from traditional explosives has resulted in three new earnings segments, Blasting Solutions, Digital Solutions and Specialty Mining Chemicals, Citi highlights.

The new structure is expected by the analyst to provide increased transparency on high growth segments post recent acquisitions.

Citi lowers EPS estimates by -1.3% and -17.3% for FY24 and FY25, respectively, accounting for lower volumes and reduced average selling prices.

Target price lowered to $19 from $19.50. Unchanged Neutral rating.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $17.96 Difference: $1.04
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.57, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PPT as Buy (1) -

Assets under management (AUM) have risen by 3.4% in Q1 for Perpetual due to positive markets and net inflows though partly reversed by unfavourable currency movements, explains Bell Potter.

While the Corporate Trust (CT) and Wealth Management (WM) showed advances in FUA of 1% and 3%, respectively, the broker expects these divisions will be demerged to KKR, for the previously agreed sum of $2.175bn.

Taking into account the demerger, Bell Potter's sum-of-the-parts valuation falls to $24.76 from $27.60. The Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $24.76 Current Price is $20.56 Difference: $4.2
If PPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.70, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PWH as Hold (3) -

Following PWR Holdings' AGM, Bell Potter makes only modest changes to earnings forecasts.

The broker highlights management commentary stating, “we see the global aerospace thermal management system market providing great opportunity to PWR”.

The target price falls to $9.75 from $10.50 as the analysts lower the assumed valuation multiple. The weighted average cost of capital applied to cash flows is also increased due to a lack of visibility and risk around the move to a new factory.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $8.76 Difference: $0.99
If PWH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.45, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Citi's first take on South32's Sept quarter results is mixture of "positive and negative surprises" again.

The broker observes better than expected results from manganese, copper and aluminium with performances of silver and zinc at Cannington lower than anticipated.

An increase in working capital of US$150m was highlighted as "disappointing" with Hermosa at US$123m and group capex at US$15m.

Met coal sale funds came in at US$964m and net debt fell to US$39m from US$723m. 

Citi remains Buy rated with a $3.90 target price. Management retained FY25 production guidance.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $0.2
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SKO as Buy (1) -

Citi previews 1H25 earnings for Serko outlining a result which is likely to meet forecasts. The analyst does envisage stronger 2H25 earnings with a pick-up in web visits and growth in hotel room rates.

Lower job listings and a decline in head count expose mixed signals to Citi, however, inferring some caution with a possible moderation in the growth outlook, although current guidance is seen supporting FY25 free cash flow estimates.

New target price is set at $3.40 with a Buy rating.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $0.88
If SKO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Buy (1) -

Production for Santos in Q3 exceeded forecasts by consensus and Ord Minnett, while sales revenue met the broker's forecast. 

The analyst is unconcerned by a revenue miss against the consensus estimate because of the commencement of the Moomba carbon capture and storage (CCS) project and Angore gas field in Papua New Guinea. A circa US$120m stock build is also noted.

Management's guidance for production, sales volumes, and unit costs was reiterated.

The target edges up to $8.50 from $8.40. Buy.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $6.90 Difference: $1.6
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.15, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WEB as Buy (1) -

With Web Travel's share price down -38% since the trading update on weaker European conditions, UBS believes too many "negative outcomes" are being discounted into the price.

The broker's analysis infers the inherent operating leverage in the business should enable B2B EBITDA margins to lift to 50.7% by FY30 from 41.8% in FY25, versus 49.3% in FY24.

UBS is forecasting EBITDA growth of 24% and EPS growth of 29% for FY25 to FY28. The analyst emphasises the valuation at 16.8x EV/EBTIDA is not expensive.

Target price is $5.60 with Buy rating maintained after adjusting for the update and de-merger.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.20 Difference: $1.4
If WEB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.73, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources