Australian Broker Call

Citi rates ABY as Buy (1) -

Adore Beauty's March Q trading update is encouraging, Citi suggests. Revenue growth accelerated and is slightly ahead of the broker's expectations. Customer metrics suggest better customer loyalty and brand equity.

This sets the company up for lower marketing spend as a percentage of sales.

The CEO is stepping down for personal reasons but Citi believes there will be continuity in the business strategy, which is important as the broker thinks it is moving in the right direction.

Buy and $1.70 target retained.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.51
If ABY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.38, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ADT as Add (1) -

Following Adriatic Metals' 1Q activities and cashflow report, Morgans notes production at the Vares Silver-Lead-Zinc project in Bosnia is now ramping-up well.

The quarterly report also demonstrated to the broker management's ability to adjust to operating challenges as they arise.

Cash at March 31 of $47m was ahead of the analyst's $40m forecast, and prior production guidance is unchanged.

The Add rating and $5.80 target are unchanged.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $1.25
If ADT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

Amcor is scheduled to release Q3 financials tomorrow, May 1st and UBS analysts are positioned to see EBIT coming in at US$1bn for the first 9 months, in line with market consensus.

The broker adds given ongoing de-stocking and a challenging macro environment weighing on consumer demand, investor focus will be on volumes for the quarter.

Amcor is expected to maintain its FY24 reported EPS guidance of 67-71cps. Neutral rating and target price price of $15.60 retained.

Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $13.81 Difference: $1.79
If AMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.53, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ARF as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

UBS has initiated coverage of Arena REIT with a Buy rating and target price of $3.97. Government inquiries into the childcare sector are expected to have minimal impact at worst.

UBS is forecasting FY25-28 EPS CAGR of 4.0%, which is higher than the sector average, driven by a defensive income stream and accretive developments.

Target price is $3.97 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.32
If ARF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.91, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ART as Add (1) -

The Airtasker business remains on track to deliver its guidance to be free cash flow (FCF) positive for FY24, notes Morgans, after reviewing the company's 4Q trading update.

The analyst highlights an increased monetisation rate as well as a generation of free cash flow for the second consecutive quarter, along with an improved posted task performance across its marketplaces.

Airtasker's offshore marketplaces are still gaining momentum, notes the broker, particularly the UK post the media-for-equity deal.

The Add rating and 54c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.54 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.28
If ART meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 108% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ATG as Neutral (3) -

Articore Group's 3Q marketplace revenue missed the UBS forecast by -8% leading to material EPS forecast downgrades for FY24 and FY25 of -8% and -23%, respectively. The target is reduced to 53c from 65c.

Management is guiding to a more moderate revenue decline in the 2H, noting that April trading is looking better. The company is yet to provide metrics around customer retention, notes UBS.

The broker is concerned recent margin improvement via seller fees, fulfiller network initiatives and material headcount reductions are largely one-time levers. Earnings growth now requires improved returns on marketing spend and revenue growth, notes the analyst.

The Neutral rating is maintained.

This UBS research was released yesterday.

Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.105
If ATG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates B4P as Buy (1) -

Strong credit quality has seen Beforepay Group deliver a net transaction margin beat to Shaw and Partners' forecast in the March quarter. As per the broker, the top-line remained largely stable as the company remained focused on lower-risk cohorts. 

The broker expects Beforepay Group now has a solid cash flow and niche revenue stream, underpinned by good quality credit, all underscoring a target price upgrade from Shaw and Partners. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.15 from $1.00.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.535
If B4P meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BCB as Buy (1) -

Bowen Coking Coal reported run of mine production of 615,000 tonnes in the March quarter, down on the December quarter. Burton, notes Shaw and Partners, delivered a 4% increase quarter-on-quarter despite weather impacts. 

Elsewhere, the broker points out a combination of weather impacts and ongoing ramp up of Ellensfield South means full cash flow potential of Bowen is yet to be seen. The asset remains on track for full year production and cost guidance. 

The Buy rating and target price of 23 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.181
If BCB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 369% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BDM as Buy (1) -

Burgundy Diamond Mines reported March Q production and sales data below Bell Potter's expectations but has made reasonable headway on both metrics, the broker suggests. FY guidance is retained.

Sales and realised prices should lift in the current quarter, Bell Potter notes, on expected ore sources and the addition of a special stone auction. Work continues on mine extension opportunities and the new Point Lake open pit mine is on schedule for first ore from early 2025.

The potential for experienced management to enhance the value of an already top-ten global diamond mine is a key tenet of the broker's positive investment view. Target falls to 35c from 40c, Buy retained.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.175
If BDM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett is of the view that BHP Group won't have many genuine competitors in its attempt to acquire Anglo American ex PGMs and ex iron ore, given its size and balance sheet.

The broker also believes BHP is offering a fair price, even though the approach is opportunitistic, following on from the target's share price weakness.

Ord Minnett has a positive view on the proposed transaction, but also believes there remains regulatory risk. BHP is likely to sell off the diamond operations, suggests the broker, in order to concentrate on its true goal; the copper business, attractive, and located in Chili.

If the deal succeeds, BHP will turn itself into the largest copper producer in the world. Target $40.50. Hold.

Target price is $40.50 Current Price is $42.97 Difference: minus $2.47 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $45.13, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Outperform (1) -

Ramp up across multiple assets should see Boss Energy take annual production to 3.0m pounds, says Macquarie.

First uranium in drum has been announced at the Honeymoon asset, while production is expected to commence at Alta Mesa in May, with the ramp up of both projects will see the company's attributable production lift to 3.0m pounds over the next three years. 

The broker points out Boss Energy still held $100m in cash on hand as of the end of the third quarter, which it considers to position the company well through a production ramp up.

The Outperform rating and target price of $6.00 are retained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $1.22
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.43, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Overweight (1) -

Odd things are happening at Morgan Stanley which, today, officially resumes coverage of Computershare, but released a research update on the company in mid-February. Same analyst remains in charge.

Rating is Overweight. Sector view is In-Line. Price target it $29.70.

The broker acknowledges interest rate/bond yields movements may create some uncertainty, but the company should still be able to deliver high single digit profit growth in FY25.

Computershare has earnings growth levers via growing margin balances, deploying its strong balance sheet and better capital markets, the broker explains. No changes have been made to forecasts.

Target price is $29.70 Current Price is $27.07 Difference: $2.63
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.98, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSR as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett is of the view that shareholders of CSR should vote in favour of Saint Gobain acquiring the business.

Fair value calculation has been raised to $9, in line with the offer on the table. Hold.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.92 Difference: $0.08
If CSR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.41, suggesting downside of -16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CXO as Sell (5) -

Core Lithium March Q sales achieved a modest margin versus cash operating costs, Citi notes. Restart still depends on market conditions with the company continuing to progress underground feasibility work.

Citi sees lithium supply outpacing demand in the near-term which is keeping the broker bearish.

Target falls to 9c from 11c, Sell retained.

Target price is $0.09 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CXO as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie feels Core Lithium has delivered a decent quarter compared to its estimates. The company reported production of 24,900 tonnes of spodumene concentrate in a 23% beat to Macquarie's forecast, as recoveries improved to 63% in the period.

Cash operating unit costs totalled $964 a tonne, an 18% beat to Macquarie's forecast, while shipments of 10,200 tonnes did miss the mark, with a 10,000 tonne shipment delayed until the fourth quarter. 

With Core Lithium having retained previous guidance, Macquarie now anticipates a concentrate sales beat. The Neutral rating and target price of 15 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.01
If CXO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CYG as Buy (1) -

Coventry Group has announced the acquisition of Steelmasters –A&NZ’s third largest specialty fasteners distributor– for an upfront cash consideration of -NZ$45.0m. To fund the acquisition, Coventry undertook a $25m fully underwritten institutional placement.

After receiving strong support from investors, the company upsized the raising to $30m.

In Bell Potter's view, Steelmasters is a strong strategic fit to Coventry’s existing trade supply business and the price can be seen as fair
given Steelmasters’ strong brand reputation.

Target rises to $1.90 from $1.80, Buy retained.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.37
If CYG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates EV1 as Buy (1) -

Following Evolution Energy Minerals' partnering with BTR New Material Group in 2023, test work has now confirmed the ability for Chilalo graphite to replicate the latter's existing premium quality anode materials. 

Ongoing anode product development, notes Shaw and Partners, forms an important part of a feasibility study to assess a joint anode processing facility that utilises BTR New Material Group's technology and Chilalo's graphite. 

Further, the broker expects the ability of Evolution Energy Minerals to demonstrate a vertically integrated supply chain from mine to lithium-ion battery anode will play an important role in both debt financing and potential partnering, which it expects the company will look to engage in as a next step.

The Buy rating and target price of 40 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.326
If EV1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 441% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates FFM as Buy (1) -

FireFly Metals has reported further high-grade copper results from Green Bay, all outside of the existing resource notes Shaw and Partners.

These latest results, extrapolates the broker, include mineralisation from the upper high-grade copper-gold massive sulphide zone and the Footwall zone. While two drill rigs are already on site, a third is due to commence drilling in May. 

Shaw and Partners considers these results to set the scene for a significant resource upgrade, from a current 39.2m tonnes, in the September quarter.

The Buy rating and target price of $1.10 are retained.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.23
If FFM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FMG as Sell (5) -

Fortescue reported iron ore shipments for the March 2024 quarter of 43.3mt compared with guidance of 48.6mt at the midpoint. Costs were contained below the top of the guidance range but Bell Potter had expected the exchange rate tailwind to be greater assistance.

Average price received for the March quarter dropped -10% from last quarter,  with sales weighted to the back end of the quarter. Guidance is tightened to the lower end of the range.

While the broker had been expecting a seasonally soft quarter exacerbated by the derailment, this result was in fact the biggest quarterly production miss in over a decade. Record June Q production is required to reach the bottom end of FY guidance.

Target falls to $20.63 from $21.51, Sell retained.

Target price is $20.63 Current Price is $25.67 Difference: minus $5.04 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.03, suggesting downside of -23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates JLG as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter was underwhelmed by Johns Lyng’s first half US result but management sees the US at an "inflection point” post the Allstate panel win and has targeted a 25% year-on-year step-up in second half revenue.

In the broker's view, this is a potential outcome that is yet to be valued by the market.

Target falls to $6.20 from $6.30, Hold retained.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.66 Difference: $0.54
If JLG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.29, suggesting upside of 29.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Buy (1) -

Citi comments Lovisa Holdings delivered a strong first half result and it is successfully evolving into a global retailer.

Given the ongoing strength in execution, Citi considers the valuation to be sustainable and sees potential for short to medium term gross margin upside, as well as longer-term store roll-out expansion.

But unless the company can materially increase the pace of its roll-out in the June Q, it may be difficult, but not impossible, to meet consensus forecasts of 913 stores in FY24, Citi notes, which implies 59 net new stores in the second half.

Buy retained with a $31.64 target.

Target price is $31.64 Current Price is $31.94 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.61, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MAP as Buy (1) -

Microba Life Sciences' March Q update demonstrated solid commercial execution, Bell Potter suggests, with MetaXplore and MetaPanel tests in Australia and continued development with novel drug candidates. Financial results were in line.

MetaPanel was launched across Australia in March via strategic partner Sonic Healthcare ((SHL)). MetaPanel revenue contribution is expected to ramp-up predominantly from FY25.

It is the broker's view Microba remains a leader in microbiome testing and live biotherapeutics development. In FY25 Bell Potter expects the company’s testing sales to ramp-up domestically and expand internationally.

Buy and 35c target retained.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.165
If MAP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

Megaport's March Q earnings of $14m were slightly higher than expected and free cash flow was strong, however annual recurring revenue and other KPIs were softer than expected, Citi notes.

The soft customer adds suggest that churn could be a factor that is impacting KPIs.

Earnings guidance has been upgraded but is likely conservative, Citi suggests, when considering FX moves.

Buy and $16.80 target retained.

Target price is $16.80 Current Price is $14.10 Difference: $2.7
If MP1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.93, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MP1 as Outperform (1) -

Megaport has lifted its full year earnings guidance to $56-58m, a 5.6% increase at the midpoint notes Macquarie, alongside what the broker considers conservative revenue guidance of $195m at the top end. 

Despite the announcement of a delay in the KPI turnaround, Macquarie was encouraged by a favourable mix shift to higher value products, as well as partnership announcements. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $18.30 from $18.00.

Target price is $18.30 Current Price is $14.10 Difference: $4.2
If MP1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.93, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MP1 as Equal-weight (3) -

Megaport's quarterly update met expectations but it came with a positive surprise as management upgraded EBITDA guidance for FY24.

Morgan Stanley observes the shares are trading at a -10% discount to Australian software peers.

Equal-weight. Target lifts to $11.50 from $10.20. Industry View: Attractive. Estimates have been lifted.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $14.10 Difference: minus $2.6 (current price is over target).
If MP1 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.93, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MP1 as Hold (3) -

Morgans has pushed out its sales ramp-up forecast for Megaport and trimmed earnings forecasts following the company's mixed 3Q trading update.

Apart from annual recurring revenue (ARR), most metrics tracked lower quarter-on-quarter and were below long-term averages, notes the broker. Ports added were the weakest on record and customer additions were slow. 

The analyst believes the share price acceleration over the last year mostly related to cost control and the next catalyst should come from an acceleration in the rate of sales.

While the broker remains convinced this acceleration will occur, the exact timing is hard to forecast.

Morgans retains its $13.50 target and Hold rating.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $14.10 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If MP1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.93, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MP1 as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett is keeping count with Megaport releasing its fourth consecutive quarter of positive cash flow yesterday and its eigth quarter of positive EBITDA (adjusted).

Management at the fledgling firm also lowered capex guidance to -33% below last year's. The broker highlights the business itself is now 30% larger.

FY24 EBITDA guidance has been upgraded. The $15 'fair value' estimate and Hold rating are unchanged. Ord Minnett remains of the view Megaport's return on sales and marketing spending is "highly attractive".

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $14.10 Difference: $0.9
If MP1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.93, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MSV as Speculative Buy (1) -

As Morgans had over-estimated the operating rig count, 3Q revenue and earnings (EBITDA) for Mitchell Services missed the broker's forecasts by -6% and -7%, respectively.

However, operating cash flow of $9.4m far exceeded the broker's $6.9m estimate on better continuity of operating rigs through the wet season and partly due to the timing of the Easter break.

The analyst highlights management's robust outlook commentary and points out the company's shares still trade on steep absolute and relative discounts, despite a 10% rise since 1H results.

The Speculative Buy rating and 56c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.135
If MSV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MVF as Outperform (1) -

Having reported 180 basis points of market share gains over the first half, Macquarie considers it likely that Monash IVF will report a further 155 basis point growth in the second half, underpinned by specialist recruitment and completion of acquisitions. 

The company also anticipates a proportion of carrier screening, which it added to its services in November, to convert to cycles and drive significant cycle growth in coming years. Macquarie is yet to account for this in its outlook.

While the third quarter saw total IVF cycles decline -3.8% year-on-year, Macquarie notes statistics suggest a 7.2% year-on-year increase during March.

The Outperform rating and target price of $1.55 are retained.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.085
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.56, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MX1 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans' target for Micro-X falls to 21c from 25c after allowing for a capital raise and adjusting forecasts following the company's 3Q cashflow report. The Speculative Buy rating is maintained.

The company has completed a $4.0m placement at 9.5cps and is currently conducting a share purchase plan (SPP) for $1m which closes on May 23.

The new shares will also receive one free attaching option for every two shares issued, which will be exercisable at 13.5c each for a period of two years, and will be unlisted.

The 3Q cashflow report revealed softer mobile DR x-ray machine sales, while contracted projects were being delivered on time and budget, highlights Morgans.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.117
If MX1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 126% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -

Citi considers Nick Scali's Fabb Furniture acquisition to be a sensible and strategic way of entering the UK market and is supportive of the transaction.

The smaller-than-expected size of the transaction means there is less risk if Nick Scali is unable to turn around the loss-making franchise.

Citi thinks, given the UK is a new market for Nick Scali, this acquisition may prove to be more challenging than Plush and expects fewer cost of doing business synergies.

Earnings forecast updates and an increased PE multiple lead to a target increase to $17.30 from $15.55. Buy retained.

Target price is $17.30 Current Price is $15.40 Difference: $1.9
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NIC as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

UBS has initiated coverage of Nickel Industries with a Buy rating, alongside a maiden price target of $1.10. The broker's investment thesis centres around the close relationship with China's stainless steel giant Tsingshan, which is seen as a net positive.

While more supply needs to be removed from the nickel market, UBS retains a positive view on the growth prospects for Nickel Industries, which operates from Indonesia near the bottom of the cost curve.

The broker's NPV-based valuation uses a long-term nickel price of US$8.00/lb in combination with 0.75 AUD/USD.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.19
If NIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.11, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has labelled Orora's recently acquired Saverglass business as a "high quality and well invested asset base" following a tour of the facilities.

While the Saverglass business did report an -11% volume decline over the second half, Macquarie expects this will likely be a volume trough. The broker anticipates soft volumes in the first half of FY25, ahead of a second half recovery. 

Key customers have indicated spirits distributor inventories are approaching normal levels, although the broker concedes risk remains of further de-stocking. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.62 from $2.75.

Target price is $2.62 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.42
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPE as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has returned with an update on PeopleIN. It had been a while.

Taking guidance from industry peers, the broker believes industry conditions remain tough. Elsewhere, data indicate both health care and professional services are under pressure; both are key services provided by PeopleIN.

Forecasts have been lowered, which weighs down the price target, now at $1.46, but given the present low valuation for the shares, Ord Minnett sticks with its Buy rating.

There's the added attraction as a potential take-over target, the broker believes, while the balance sheet is in better shape post debt refinance.

Target price is $1.46 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: $0.49
If PPE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPT as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett found Perpetual's latest market update "uninspiring" with net outflows larger than expected. It was also in contrast with other funds managers, states the broker.

Lowered forecasts weigh on the fair value estimate; now at $26 versus $27.50 prior, predominantly to accomodate for larger outflows in the asset management business plus higher expenses.

As the shares are trading on cheap looking multiples, some -8% below intrinsic value, the broker sees ongoing merits in its investment case. And that's not including corporate appeal.

Accumulate.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $24.02 Difference: $3.48
If PPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.83, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Buy (1) -

In a first look at March Q results for SiteMinder yesterday, Citi noted underlying cash burn was as expected and the company is on track to becoming free cash flow positive. The Channels Plus product also continues to gain traction.

Management attributed a miss for revenue growth (-3% lower than the broker's estimate) to the timing of the Easter break impacting upon the global distribution system (GDS) growth.

Moderating subscription average revenue per user (ARPU) growth also weighed on revenues because of lower price increases this year. Citi sees potential for consensus revenue and earnings downgrades.

Operating cash flow was slightly better-than-expected due to lower administration/corporate costs, which was offset by higher capex related to higher product development spend.

Target $6.30. Buy.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.71 Difference: $0.59
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.45, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SDR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley retains its positive view post SiteMinder's quarterly update, observing management's intention of reinvesting more with larger customers while keeping the business on a positive free cash flow footing.

Some of the numbers (sales and ARR) looked strong, though slightly missed consensus forecasts, the broker points out.

Overweight retained. Industry view: In-Line. Price target $6.45. No changes made to forecasts.

Target price is $6.45 Current Price is $5.71 Difference: $0.74
If SDR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.45, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SDR as Add (1) -

SiteMinder's 3Q results were largely in line with Morgans forecasts with revenue a slight miss, while the free cash flow (FCF) metric was slightly better-than-expected.

Management still expects to be positive for both FCF and underlying earnings (EBITDA) in the 2H, and also reiterated its 30% organic revenue growth target over the medium-term.

The launch of the SiteMinder mobile app in March was well received by users, notes the analyst, and the upcoming launch of Dynamic Revenue Plus (DR+) continues to track as planned.

The Add rating and $6.25 target are maintained.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.71 Difference: $0.54
If SDR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.45, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SDR as Buy (1) -

SiteMinder delivered a net positive result, in the view of UBS, even though some of the metrics (ARR included) proved a little softer than anticipated.

The broker continues to view the core offering from the company as "appealing" with potential upside to current forecasts if traction in the new product launches is stronger than expected.

Marginal reductions have occurred for forecasts on slightly lower revenue projections. Traget $6.65. Buy.

Target price is $6.55 Current Price is $5.71 Difference: $0.84
If SDR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.45, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Buy (1) -

Stockland's March Q update brought positive news on resi sales momentum, up 5% in the quarter and 18% year on year. Enquiry levels have remained strong through the quarter, up more than 20% on the 2023 average, Citi notes, highlighting a recovery in demand.

The FY24 residential volume guidance range has been tightened to 5,300-5,500 from 5,200-5,600 providing further comfort around the settlement target and hopefully providing confidence to some doubtful investors, the broker suggests.

No update was provided on the ACCC review of the Lendlease ((LLC)) communities business acquisition.

Buy and $5.20 target retained.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: $0.77
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

Stockland's quarterly update came with FY24 guidance unchanged, though management tightened guidance for resi settlements to 5300-5500 lots compared with 5200-5600 guidance previously.

Morgan Stanley points out the company's guidance is implying the largest Q4 skew ever to reach the bottom of the guidance, but it's considered "achievable".

Overweight rating. Target $5.30. In-Line Industry view. No changes have been made to forecasts.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: $0.87
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SIQ as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Smartgroup Corp is a leading provider of employee benefits within salary packaging administration and operates end-to-end fleet management services. Bell Potter initiates coverage with a Buy recommendation and target price of $11.00.

The broker comments Smartgroup provides a unique exposure to the growing demand profile for renewable fuels and vehicle electrification on the ASX.

The broker notes Australia will need to achieve a 50% sales share for low emission vehicles by 2035 to meet transport emission targets.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.81 Difference: $1.19
If SIQ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.26, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SXG as Buy (1) -

Three drill holes at Southern Cross Gold's Sunday Creek Project Apollo prospect have all intersected high-grade mineralisation, beyond the exploration target notes Shaw and Partners. 

The broker notes to date all of the best intercepts from the project have been at depth, and the company has only just begun to test the Apollo prospect at depth. 

Shaw and Partners sees significant upside to the current exploration target. 

The Buy rating and target price of $2.61 are retained.

Target price is $2.61 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $0.21
If SXG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TNE as Neutral (3) -

First half results for TechnologyOne are due on May 21 and UBS forecasts revenue of $241m (consensus $230m) and profit (PBT) of $63.8m (consensus $62.7m).

In February, UBS surveyed enterprise resource planning (ERP) decision makers across the US, UK, Germany, China and Japan, and insights were overall supportive for TechnologyOne, which has a growing presence in the UK.

Of respondents surveyed, 34% described modernising their ERP stack as a top priority.The Neutral rating and $16.40 target are retained.

This UBS research was released yesterday.

Target price is $16.40 Current Price is $16.26 Difference: $0.14
If TNE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.07, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TPG as Buy (1) -

To Ord Minnett's surprise, having successfully argued against a regional mobile sharing agreement between TPG Telecom and Telstra ((TLS)) last year, Optus has now signed an almost identical contract with TPG Telecom.

The broker does conclude the net economic value to TPG over the life of this deal is not material enough at this stage to get overly excited, or otherwise.

Fair value estimate unchanged at $6.60. Buy.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: $2.24
If TPG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.31, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TSK as Hold (3) -

Task Group released a quarterly update revealing lower-than-expected cash flows. The current take-over process implies a price of 90c per share, Ord Minnett points out.

Higher staff and operating overheads, combined with a disappointing March quarter update have led to reduced forecasts.

Hold rating retained. Target remains 81c.

Target price is $0.81 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If TSK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates URW as Accumulate (2) -

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield's needs to sell a lot more assets to reduce its mountain of debt. Such is the central position of Ord Minnett which hasn't changed post quarterly update.

Disposals to date have been described as "paltry", though the broker does believe the REIT has time up its sleeves.

As the shares are still seen as undervalued, though not as much as they used to be, the rating is Accumulate. Fair value is estimated at $7.80.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $6.35 Difference: $1.45
If URW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Xero’s strategic partnership with Deputy for shift management is in line with the company’s strategy to focus on the three main jobs-to-be-done and leveraging partners to embed other critical jobs-to-be-done, Citi suggests.

In terms of earnings materiality, it is too early, the broker believes, to tell the revenue potential especially given it’s uncertain how much subs overlap there is already in Australia.

Citi does not see the -US$25m investment in Deputy as the best use of capital. Buy and $159 target retained.

Target price is $159.00 Current Price is $121.66 Difference: $37.34
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $126.92, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources