Australian Broker Call

UBS rates AAI as Neutral (3) -

UBS  sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz opens by early April, the analyst points to copper and copper shares rallying, with aluminum and coal to consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.

In the case of an energy price shock and extended conflict (over 2 months), UBS sees more downside to copper and further upside to aluminum and coal.

Gold is expected to recover to its "safe haven/diversifier" status despite the change in USD strength and higher bond yields.

Alcoa remains Neutral rated with a $95 target price and remains more levered to aluminum than South32 ((S32)), although South32 has a higher potential uplift to the target price, the analyst explains.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $83.76 Difference: $11.24
If AAI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AEL as Buy (1) -

Amplitude Energy has announced that the pressure drop during flow testing of the Isabella field signals a commercial development is improbable and therefore the sidetrack will be plugged and abandoned.

Bell Potter points out the result does not impact the chance of success at subsequent wells.

A final investment decision on the East Coast Supply project has now been deferred until subsequent wells are drilled, likely in the second half of 2026. The current drill program, budget and target for first gas from 2028 are unchanged.

The broker applies a higher risk discount to the project and reduces its target to $2.70 from $3.40. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $1.085
If AEL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 85.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AEL as Buy (1) -

Morgans highlights the sharp sell off in Amplitude Energy's share price post the announcement it was 0-for-2 in its ESCP exploration program, with gas flowing to the surface for Isabella but pressure was not maintained.

This is viewed as disappointing as Isabella is the largest resource target in the program.

The remaining two ESCP wells, Juliet and Nestor, are planned for 2H2026 with much simpler geology, the analyst notes, but also lower resource upside.

The market is likely to remain focused on the next two wells, which are a must-win for the growth outlook, commentary suggests.

No change to Buy rating and target slips to $3 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $1.385
If AEL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 85.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AIH as Buy (1) -

Morgans notes the developers and contractors sector, which generally performed in line with the ASX All Ords during the month, has since sold off due to concerns around a global slowdown and the impact of fuel shortages on mining following the start of the Iran conflict.

Assuming conditions stabilise, sector top stock picks are ALS Ltd ((ALQ)), Imdex ((IMD)), Civmec ((CVL)), NRW Holdings ((NWH)) and SRG Global ((SRG)).

For a protracted recovery, although the rating is Hold, Ventia ((VNT)) is in the optimal position as an inflation beneficiary (cost reimbursable) in defensive non-mining end markets, the broker highlights.

Morgans has a Buy rating on Advanced Innergy, with an unchanged $1.45 target.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.6
If AIH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -

UBS notes US commercial gaming revenues reported so far are up 4.6% in February (60% reported) while only up 2.5% on trailing 12 month comparisons.

Land-based market conditions remain favourable while the social casino market industry continues to track lower, down -15% in February but with Aristocrat Leisure down just -1%.

The broker highlights the Aristocrat Leisure portfolio remains strong amid balance sheet strength and a double-digit EPS growth outlook. Buy rating and $69 target.

Target price is $69.00 Current Price is $46.68 Difference: $22.32
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.31, suggesting upside of 46.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

Morgans notes the developers and contractors sector, which generally performed in line with the ASX All Ords during the month, has since sold off due to concerns around a global slowdown and the impact of fuel shortages on mining following the start of the Iran conflict.

Assuming conditions stabilise, sector top stock picks are ALS Ltd ((ALQ)), Imdex ((IMD)), Civmec ((CVL)), NRW Holdings ((NWH)) and SRG Global ((SRG)).

For a protracted recovery, although the rating is Hold, Ventia ((VNT)) is in the optimal position as an inflation beneficiary (cost reimbursable) in defensive non-mining end markets, the broker highlights.

Morgans continues to view ALS Ltd as part of upgrade cycle with exploration continuing to accelerate with potential excess cash from commodties used for acquisitions and boost to Life Sciences. Buy rated with a $25.30 target.

Target price is $25.30 Current Price is $20.15 Difference: $5.15
If ALQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.70, suggesting upside of 28.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APA as Outperform (1) -

A delayed east coast gas shortfall under AEMO’s Gas Statement of Opportunities 2026 supports APA Group’s long-term infrastructure strategy, with timing pushed to 2030 from 2029, and potentially 2034 as investment assumptions expand, according to Macquarie.

The broker notes successive deferrals reflect slower coal retirements, increased battery penetration and pipeline investment, reducing near-term gas-powered generation demand.

No changes are made to earnings forecasts, although the analyst highlights a circa -$2.0bn capex pipeline, with Stage 3B expected to proceed and extend the supply outlook.

Outperform rating retained, with APA viewed as attractively valued and offering a sustainable circa 6.0% yield. Target unchanged at $9.58.

Target price is $9.58 Current Price is $9.65 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.46, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BUB as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bubs Australia highlighted growth in the US at its investor briefing, and has secured 1.3% share of the US infant formula (IMF) market.

Bell Potter expects FY26 will be a transformational year, with reported EBITDA forecast at $4-6m despite -$5m in airfreight and tariff related expenses, some of which will be reflected in FY27.

The company has reset its China business and identified several key markets for growth such as Vietnam, Canada and Mexico. The broker suggests, with permanent access now in the US, this is likely to prove a de-risking event.

Speculative Buy rating and $0.18 target maintained.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.075
If BUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BUB as Accumulate (2) -

Bubs Australia has provided its strategy update, introducing a new executive leadership and a focus on growth. FY26 guidance has been confirmed for EBITDA of $4-6m and revenue  of $120-125m.

The company plans to establish a US-based sourcing and production operation that could be  funded by a potential equity raising.

Despite the strong presentation and maintenance of FY26 forecast, Ord Minnett reduces FY27 and FY28 EBITDA estimates by -10% and -20%, respectively, in response to growing cost pressures. Target is lowered to $0.15 from $0.18. Accumulate retained.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.045
If BUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAT as Buy (1) -

Catapult Sports has updated on FY26 earnings, highlighting annual contract value of US$133-134m, which represents growth of 32%. Free cash flow is between US$5-6m reflecting an outflow in the second half, reflecting some delay in receivables.

UBS considers the delay, while not positive, should still mean the company will collect outstanding receivables early in the first half of FY27.

The broker has increased conviction in the medium term growth prospects of the business and retains a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $6.45 from $6.70.

Target price is $6.45 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $2.79
If CAT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.68, suggesting upside of 65.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSC as Buy (1) -

UBS sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz opens by early April, the analyst points to copper and copper shares rallying, with aluminum and coal to consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.

In the case of an energy price shock and extended conflict (over 2 months), UBS sees more downside to copper and further upside to aluminum and coal.

Gold is expected to recover to its "safe haven/diversifier" status despite the change in USD strength and higher bond yields.

A Buy rating on Capstone Copper is retained with a $15 target price.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $10.50 Difference: $4.5
If CSC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.60, suggesting upside of 53.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CVL as Buy (1) -

Morgans notes the developers and contractors sector, which generally performed in line with the ASX All Ords during the month, has since sold off due to concerns around a global slowdown and the impact of fuel shortages on mining following the start of the Iran conflict.

Assuming conditions stabilise, sector top stock picks are ALS Ltd ((ALQ)), Imdex ((IMD)), Civmec ((CVL)), NRW Holdings ((NWH)) and SRG Global ((SRG)).

For a protracted recovery, although the rating is Hold, Ventia ((VNT)) is in the optimal position as an inflation beneficiary (cost reimbursable) in defensive non-mining end markets, the broker highlights.

Morgans believes Civmec has gone through the cyclical low point and the company has pointed to "a clear uplift in activity and strong momentum".

Buy rated with a $2 target price.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.51
If CVL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DRR as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS upgrades Deterra Royalties to Neutral from Sell with a $3.95 target price.

The broker sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz opens by early April, the analyst points to copper and copper shares rallying, with aluminum and coal to consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.

In the case of an energy price shock and extended conflict (over 2 months), UBS sees more downside to copper and further upside to aluminum and coal.

Gold is expected to recover to its "safe haven/diversifier" status despite the change in USD strength and higher bond yields.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: $0.1
If DRR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.48, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EDV as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi lowers its target for Endeavour Group by -60c to $3.70 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy, citing concerns around softer consumer demand impacting retail and hotel sales.

Commentary notes higher interest rates, fuel costs and inflation will likely pressure household spending and reduce alcohol consumption.

The broker also points to additional headwinds from rising freight costs, with limited ability to pass these through in a weaker environment.

Earnings revisions include lower sales growth and margin assumptions, resulting in Citi's FY26 profit estimate falling -4% below that of consensus.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $0.3
If EDV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.67, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS upgrades Evolution Mining to Neutral from Sell with a $12.50 target price.

The broker sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz opens by early April, the analyst points to copper and copper shares rallying, with aluminum and coal to consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.

In the case of an energy price shock and extended conflict (over 2 months), UBS sees more downside to copper and further upside to aluminum and coal.

Gold is expected to recover to its "safe haven/diversifier" status despite the change in USD strength and higher bond yields.

Key gold picks remain Newmont ((NEM)) and Genesis Minerals ((GMD)).

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $12.64 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.48, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FEX as Buy (1) -

Fenix Resources has informed the market the Mid-West Port Authority will temporarily pause shipping operations at Geraldton amid the latest forecast signallingTropical Cyclone Narelle is intensifying off the WA coast and could track towards the midwest.

The closure will defer some sales from March, while FY26 guidance has been maintained with the expectation that ship loadings resume in early April and diesel supplies are at normal levels.

Subject to the cyclone, and given healthy iron ore stockpiles, sufficient fuel is expected to be maintained to continue processing and haulage.

Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $0.63 from $0.67.

Target price is $0.63 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.3
If FEX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMD as Buy (1) -

UBS sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz opens by early April, the analyst points to copper and copper shares rallying, with aluminum and coal to consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.

In the case of an energy price shock and extended conflict (over 2 months), UBS sees more downside to copper and further upside to aluminum and coal.

Gold is expected to recover to its "safe haven/diversifier" status despite the change in USD strength and higher bond yields.

Genesis Minerals remains a top pick with a Buy rating and $10.75 target price.

Target price is $10.75 Current Price is $5.85 Difference: $4.9
If GMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.68, suggesting upside of 72.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Outperform (1) -

After surveying 13 General Insurers in the Australian Home and Personal Motor insurance market, Macquarie highlights rising insurance excesses as an underappreciated driver of premium growth.

Home excesses rose around 9.5%, particularly on renewals, while Personal Motor increases were more modest. It's felt excess changes remain a blind spot for investors assessing gross written premium (GWP) trends.

Looking ahead, the analyst notes higher excesses may act as a headwind to volume growth, though broader pricing and inflation tailwinds support a positive sector outlook.

Outperform and $9 target maintained for Insurance Australia Group.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.44 Difference: $1.56
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.11, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption is expected to remain gradual, with limited near-term disruption to Australian insurers like Suncorp Group and Insurance Australia Group.

AVs could account for around 10% of new vehicle sales by 2036, with only modest impact on the overall fleet, suggest the analysts.

The broker highlights its modeling points to an around -2.5% impact on motor premiums by 2035, translating to manageable group-level earnings effects.

Longer-term risks include declining premiums and a shift toward liability-based insurance, though impacts remain limited over the next decade, suggests Morgan Stanley.

Underweight rating and $6.60 target are maintained for Insurance Australia Group. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $7.44 Difference: minus $0.84 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.11, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFT as Buy (1) -

Infratil’s investor day presentation for its largest asset, data centre operator CDC, reinforced to Citi strong data centre demand, with FY27 earnings guidance upgraded above prior expectations.

CDC’s growth outlook is seen as compelling, supported by hyperscaler demand and a substantial contracted pipeline.

The broker highlights CDC’s position as the largest operator in Australia and New Zealand, with continued project progress and strong funding capacity without further equity.

It's also noted CDC has zero water usage, further illustrating the quality of the portfolio. Buy. Target $12.34.

Target price is $12.34 Current Price is $9.60 Difference: $2.74
If IFT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.82, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades IGO Ltd to Buy from Neutral, with an $8.55 target price.

The broker continues to view there is an attractive "risk-reward" in lithium and the possibility of another upcycle, as the Middle East conflict supports EV demand.

There are ongoing lithium deficits, with scope for further tightening driven by higher EV and battery storage demand, with US$4,000/t spodumene expected by the end of 2026 or early 2027.

Liontown ((LTR)) and Mineral Resources ((MIN)) are also key picks.

Target price is $8.55 Current Price is $7.63 Difference: $0.92
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.86, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IMD as Buy (1) -

Morgans notes the developers and contractors sector, which generally performed in line with the ASX All Ords during the month, has since sold off due to concerns around a global slowdown and the impact of fuel shortages on mining following the start of the Iran conflict.

Assuming conditions stabilise, sector top stock picks are ALS Ltd ((ALQ)), Imdex ((IMD)), Civmec ((CVL)), NRW Holdings ((NWH)) and SRG Global ((SRG)).

For a protracted recovery, although the rating is Hold, Ventia ((VNT)) is in the optimal position as an inflation beneficiary (cost reimbursable) in defensive non-mining end markets, the broker highlights.

Morgans retains a Buy rating and $4.70 target on Imdex.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.94
If IMD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.65, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates KGN as Hold (3) -

Kogan.com delivered a first half result that beat Bell Potter's estimates with adjusted EBITDA margins of 7.5%. November and December in particular were strong, with 12% growth in gross sales and despite cycling significant comparables.

Bell Potter increases estimates for net profit in FY26 by 11%. Target is raised to $3.80 from $3.30 and a Hold rating is maintained.

The broker remains cautious about the marketing investment required to cycle second half comparables in a challenging and competitive e-commerce environment.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $0.14
If KGN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LNW as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes Light & Wonder’s earnings momentum will build through 2026, supported by a robust gaming backdrop and improving volumes.

Growth is expected to be weighted to the second half, driven by revenue timing, new product cycles and easing cost pressures.

The broker notes Gaming remains the key earnings driver, with improving international volumes and margins, while SciPlay recovery depends on key titles and direct-to-consumer gains.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating, noting Light & Wonder is its top pick within Australian gaming. Target falls to $205 from $220.

Target price is $205.00 Current Price is $124.42 Difference: $80.58
If LNW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $200.00, suggesting upside of 60.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LNW as Buy (1) -

UBS notes US commercial gaming revenues reported so far are up 4.6% in February (60% reported) while only up 2.5% on trailing 12 month comparisons.

Land-based market conditions remain favourable while the social casino market industry continues to track lower, down -15% in February and with Light & Wonder down -11%.

The broker highlights the strong earnings outlook over the medium term for Light & Wonder. Buy rating and $215 target.

Target price is $215.00 Current Price is $124.42 Difference: $90.58
If LNW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $200.00, suggesting upside of 60.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LTR as Buy (1) -

UBS continues to view there is an attractive "risk-reward" in lithium and the possibility of another upcycle, as the Middle East conflict supports EV demand.

There are ongoing lithium deficits, with scope for further tightening driven by higher EV and battery storage demand, with US$4,000/t spodumene expected by the end of 2026 or early 2027.

Liontown remains a key pick with a Buy rating and $2.20 target price.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.49
If LTR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.95, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Buy (1) -

UBS continues to view there is an attractive "risk-reward" in lithium and the possibility of another upcycle, as the Middle East conflict supports EV demand.

There are ongoing lithium deficits, with scope for further tightening driven by higher EV and battery storage demand, with US$4,000/t spodumene expected by the end of 2026 or early 2027.

Mineral Resources remains a key pick with a Buy rating and $66 target price.

Target price is $66.00 Current Price is $55.36 Difference: $10.64
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.00, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MLG as Buy (1) -

Morgans notes the developers and contractors sector, which generally performed in line with the ASX All Ords during the month, has since sold off due to concerns around a global slowdown and the impact of fuel shortages on mining following the start of the Iran conflict.

Assuming conditions stabilise, sector top stock picks are ALS Ltd ((ALQ)), Imdex ((IMD)), Civmec ((CVL)), NRW Holdings ((NWH)) and SRG Global ((SRG)).

For a protracted recovery, although the rating is Hold, Ventia ((VNT)) is in the optimal position as an inflation beneficiary (cost reimbursable) in defensive non-mining end markets, the broker highlights.

Morgans retains a Speculative Buy rating and $1.20 target on MLG Oz. The analyst highlights earnings (EBITDA) advanced 25% y/y at the interim results, despite more moderate top line growth of 5% y/y, indicating a focus on margins.

Management pointed to a robust outlook for FY26 due to strength in gold, which is underpinning demand for services.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.365
If MLG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MND as Hold (3) -

Morgans notes the developers and contractors sector, which generally performed in line with the ASX All Ords during the month, has since sold off due to concerns around a global slowdown and the impact of fuel shortages on mining following the start of the Iran conflict.

Assuming conditions stabilise, sector top stock picks are ALS Ltd ((ALQ)), Imdex ((IMD)), Civmec ((CVL)), NRW Holdings ((NWH)) and SRG Global ((SRG)).

For a protracted recovery, although the rating is Hold, Ventia ((VNT)) is in the optimal position as an inflation beneficiary (cost reimbursable) in defensive non-mining end markets, the broker highlights.

Morgans has a Hold rating and an unchanged $33.85 target on Monadelphous Group. Although industry tailwinds support growth in FY26, which could allow for an earnings beat, the analyst harbours concerns regarding a slowdown in growth for FY27.

Target price is $33.85 Current Price is $28.63 Difference: $5.22
If MND meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.41, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEM as Buy (1) -

UBS sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz opens by early April, the analyst points to copper and copper shares rallying, with aluminum and coal to consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.

In the case of an energy price shock and extended conflict (over 2 months), UBS sees more downside to copper and further upside to aluminum and coal.

Gold is expected to recover to its "safe haven/diversifier" status despite the change in USD strength and higher bond yields.

Newmont Corp remains a top pick with a Buy rating and $200 target price.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $144.88 Difference: $55.12
If NEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $203.80, suggesting upside of 38.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PLS as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS downgrades PLS Group to Neutral from Buy with a $4.95 target price.

The broker continues to view there is an attractive "risk-reward" in lithium and the possibility of another upcycle, as the Middle East conflict supports EV demand.

There are ongoing lithium deficits, with scope for further tightening driven by higher EV and battery storage demand, with US$4,000/t spodumene expected by the end of 2026 or early 2027.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.04, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QOR as Buy (1) -

Key indicators from Aura, which is "merging" with Qoria, signals to Ord Minnett the business continues in a positive direction. The company has updated on cost cutting as it moves to become a free cash flow positive business.

Revenue growth remains robust with recent subscriber metrics trending strongly and customer acquisition costs improving.

Both companies have completed around $18m of the targeted $55m in cost reductions and the merger continues to be recommended by the Qoria board.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and $0.76 target.

Target price is $0.76 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.47
If QOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 162% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS upgrades Sandfire Resources to a Neutral rating from Sell with a $17.70 target price.

The broker sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz opens by early April, the analyst points to copper and copper shares rallying, with aluminum and coal to consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.

In the case of an energy price shock and extended conflict (over 2 months), UBS sees more downside to copper and further upside to aluminum and coal.

Gold is expected to recover to its "safe haven/diversifier" status despite the change in USD strength and higher bond yields.

Target price is $17.70 Current Price is $15.93 Difference: $1.77
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.11, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SRG as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans notes the developers and contractors sector, which generally performed in line with the ASX All Ords during the month, has since sold off due to concerns around a global slowdown and the impact of fuel shortages on mining following the start of the Iran conflict.

Assuming conditions stabilise, sector top stock picks are ALS Ltd ((ALQ)), Imdex ((IMD)), Civmec ((CVL)), NRW Holdings ((NWH)) and SRG Global ((SRG)).

For a protracted recovery, although the rating is Hold, Ventia ((VNT)) is in the optimal position as an inflation beneficiary (cost reimbursable) in defensive non-mining end markets, the broker highlights.

Morgans retains an Accumulate rating for SRG Global with a $3.20 target price.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $0.66
If SRG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting upside of 29.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as Outperform (1) -

After surveying 13 General Insurers in the Australian Home and Personal Motor insurance market, Macquarie highlights rising insurance excesses as an underappreciated driver of premium growth.

Home excesses rose around 9.5%, particularly on renewals, while Personal Motor increases were more modest. It's felt excess changes remain a blind spot for investors assessing gross written premium (GWP) trends.

Looking ahead, the analyst notes higher excesses may act as a headwind to volume growth, though broader pricing and inflation tailwinds support a positive sector outlook.

Outperform and $18.90 target maintained for Suncorp Group.

Target price is $18.90 Current Price is $16.40 Difference: $2.5
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.54, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption is expected to remain gradual, with limited near-term disruption to Australian insurers like Suncorp Group and Insurance Australia Group.

AVs could account for around 10% of new vehicle sales by 2036, with only modest impact on the overall fleet, suggest the analysts.

The broker highlights its modeling points to an around -2.5% impact on motor premiums by 2035, translating to manageable group-level earnings effects.

Longer-term risks include declining premiums and a shift toward liability-based insurance, though impacts remain limited over the next decade, suggests Morgan Stanley.

Overweight rating and $21.60 target are maintained for Suncorp Group. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $21.60 Current Price is $16.40 Difference: $5.2
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.54, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TAH as Buy (1) -

Tabcorp Holdings' market wagering app usage was down -4% for the four weeks to March 1, yet recovering from material declines in prior months, UBS observes.

App usage share is currently tracking at 9% indicating little change in digital market share. Sportsbet remains dominant with 78%.

The broker believes the stock is yet to fully price in the benefits from strategic improvements and retains a Buy rating. Target is $1.20.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: $0.245
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.12, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TEA as Buy (1) -

Morgans notes the developers and contractors sector, which generally performed in line with the ASX All Ords during the month, has since sold off due to concerns around a global slowdown and the impact of fuel shortages on mining following the start of the Iran conflict.

Assuming conditions stabilise, sector top stock picks are ALS Ltd ((ALQ)), Imdex ((IMD)), Civmec ((CVL)), NRW Holdings ((NWH)) and SRG Global ((SRG)).

For a protracted recovery, although the rating is Hold, Ventia ((VNT)) is in the optimal position as an inflation beneficiary (cost reimbursable) in defensive non-mining end markets, the broker highlights.

Morgans rates Tasmea as Buy with a $5.25 target.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.94 Difference: $0.31
If TEA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLC as Buy (1) -

UBS estimates underlying lottery turrnover is flat second half to date. Powerball reserves are elevated and may be used over the second half.

The broker assesses Lottery Corp has a strong underlying growth formula that is not reflected in consensus estimates, plus there are opportunities to accelerate digital with a strategy refresh. Buy rating and $6.35 target.

Target price is $6.35 Current Price is $5.44 Difference: $0.91
If TLC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.78, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights Telstra Group’s broad-based mobile price increases are data-driven and support its positioning as a defensive telco.
The pricing changes are expected to deliver an additional FY26 benefit and around 6% average revenue per user (ARPU) growth in FY27.

The broker notes concurrent prepaid and Belong price rises help offset churn and spin-down risks, while plan restructuring supports mix-driven ARPU expansion.

The target for Telstra is raised by 20c to $5.64. Outperform retained.

Target price is $5.64 Current Price is $5.31 Difference: $0.33
If TLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.36, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TPG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights TPG Telecom is accelerating mobile growth, with Vodafone prepaid price increases signaling a shift toward mid-single-digit service revenue growth.

The pricing move is seen as reflecting a more aggressive strategy, moving beyond the company's traditional low-cost positioning.

The broker notes digital channel-focused promotions support operating leverage, with mix-shift toward higher-margin digital brands enhancing profitability.

Commentary notes competitive dynamics suggest Optus may respond, though existing pricing pressures and weaker returns limit flexibility.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and raises its target by 20c to $4.40.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.02 Difference: $0.38
If TPG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.08, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VNT as Hold (3) -

Morgans notes the developers and contractors sector, which generally performed in line with the ASX All Ords during the month, has since sold off due to concerns around a global slowdown and the impact of fuel shortages on mining following the start of the Iran conflict.

Assuming conditions stabilise, sector top stock picks are ALS Ltd ((ALQ)), Imdex ((IMD)), Civmec ((CVL)), NRW Holdings ((NWH)) and SRG Global ((SRG)).

For a protracted recovery, although the rating is Hold, Ventia ((VNT)) is in the optimal position as an inflation beneficiary (cost reimbursable) in defensive non-mining end markets, the broker highlights.

Morgans has a Hold rating and $5.25 target on Ventia.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $5.48 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If VNT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.11, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WBC as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie comments Westpac’s major technology transformation program Unite remains on track and within budget, with management confidence a key positive despite ongoing execution risk.

It's felt AI may support delivery and offer upside, though benefits remain early and unproven.

Commentary highlights risk of under-investment outside Unite, with spending skewed toward remediation rather than growth, potentially leaving Westpac behind peers.

Macquarie's valuation concerns relate to a premium valuation multiple despite a weaker earnings outlook and higher re-investment needs.

Macquarie retains an Underperform rating and target of $33.50.

Target price is $33.50 Current Price is $40.46 Difference: minus $6.96 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.50, suggesting downside of -12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes Westpac’s update on major technology transformation program Unite does not materially change its investment view. Macro conditions and potential earnings downgrades are seen as the key drivers of the share price.

It is believed the program remains on track, with no changes to scope, timing or budget. Limited disclosure on financial benefits and lack of a clear pathway to FY29 CTI and ROTE targets are also noted.

Overall, the analysts see progress on simplification initiatives, with improving status across key projects.

Underweight rating and $34.40 target are maintained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $34.40 Current Price is $40.46 Difference: minus $6.06 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.50, suggesting downside of -12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WBC as Sell (5) -

Westpac has updated the market on its $2bn Unite project, which is tying in its legacy systems to one platform. The bank has indicated the project is going to plan with no time extensions or cost increases at this stage.

Ord Minnett observes management is executing well on a massive project that, as with all technology innovations, carries a variety of risks, and there is a tradition of big bank IT developments suffering a surge in costs late in the set up.

Ord Minnett re-iterates a Sell rating and $31 target for Westpac.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $40.46 Difference: minus $9.46 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.50, suggesting downside of -12.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Westpac has updated on project Unite, the -$3.5bn multi-year initiative intent on simplification and consolidating technology. UBS notes the update did not flag any changes to the overall scope, timeline or budget. No delays have been signalled.

Once fully implemented, the investment is expected to significantly strengthen the client value proposition and also support the bank's goals of achieving a cost-to-income ratio below peer averages as well as a return on equity (ROTE) above peer averages.

UBS assesses delivery of the latter could imply an 11% upgrade to earnings. Neutral and $40 target retained.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $40.46 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.50, suggesting downside of -12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Upgrade to Buy from Sell (1) -

UBS upgrades Whitehaven Coal to Buy from Sell, with a new target price of $10.10.

The broker sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz opens by early April, the analyst points to copper and copper shares rallying, with aluminum and coal to consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.

In the case of an energy price shock and extended conflict (over 2 months), UBS sees more downside to copper and further upside to aluminum and coal.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $8.80 Difference: $1.3
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.14, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Citi, in an initial assessment, considers the collaboration between Xero and Anthropic another example of where "frontier labs" and software operators are working together.

This is unlikely to move the narrative on AI disruption, but the broker envisages it as an incremental positive, and in line with the company's strategy of using the AI-assistant as a distribution/go-to-market channel.

The broker considers the app ecosystem in Xero an advantage and the importance of go-to-market in a small-media business being under appreciated.

Buy rating. Target of $144.80.

Target price is $144.80 Current Price is $72.40 Difference: $72.4
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $178.10, suggesting upside of 144.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources