Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates A4N as Speculative Buy (1) -

Alpha HPA's quarterly activities report revealed civil earthworks at Stage 2 of The HPA First Project have commenced and around -$17.5m capex has been deployed for the fully funded circa $550m capital project, highlights Bell Potter.

 At quarter's end, $185m of cash was on hand and the debt funding package ($320m plus an $80m cost overrun facility) was undrawn. 

Apart from established interest from the semiconductor, lithium-ion battery, LED and synthetic sapphire glass sectors, certain product advancements have garnered additional buyer interest, note the analysts.

The Speculative Buy rating and $2.00 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $0.98
If A4N meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AIS as Buy (1) -

In line with the lower end of guidance, notes Bell Potter, 1Q production for Aeris Resources was 10.2kt copper equivalent at a cost (AISC) of $5.32/lb.

The broker feels exposure to a rising copper price is a key opportunity for investors, highlighting the performance at the Tritton operations remains key to management's development objectives.

Vital project catalysts and refinancing of debt facilities are due in coming quarters.

Due to the broker's rising copper and gold price forecasts, the target for Aeris Resources jumps to 34c from 27c. Buy.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.12
If AIS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AIS as Hold (3) -

As the the Tritton operations account for around 41% Ord Minnett's valuation for Aeris Resources, the analyst appreciates increasing consistency at the mine evident within in-line overall Q1 results.

The broker also highlights a better production performance at Cracow, offset by softer production at Mt Colin.

The target rises to 27c from 25c, but a Hold rating is kept as the broker draws attention to a stretched near-term balance sheet. A higher rating could result from higher sustained commodity prices or a refinancing situation, suggests the analyst.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.05
If AIS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALQ as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes the upcoming 1H25 results for ALS Ltd on Nov 19 with the Sept trading update flagging net profit to fall -5%, year-on-year. 

The broker's resources capital raising tracker shows momentum over the last two months, assisted by a strong gold price and higher commodity prices, the analyst notes.

Macquarie points to environmental as a "bright spot" for the company with expected low double-digit organic revenue growth in 1H25.

Target price unchanged at $15 with Outperform rating.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $14.13 Difference: $0.87
If ALQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.43, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

Morgans changes earnings forecasts post Suncorp acquisition for ANZ Bank.

There is no change to 2H24 revenue estimate and a decline of -1% to estimated pre-provision operating earnings. Forecast FY24 EPS falls by -6% with a final unchanged estimated dividend per share at 83c.

Target price is tweaked to $26.13 from $26.11. No changed to Hold rating.

ANZ Bank is due to report FY24 earnings on Nov 8.

Target price is $26.13 Current Price is $31.22 Difference: minus $5.09 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.44, suggesting downside of -12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett estimates around -3% downside risk to the 2H consensus forecast for ANZ Bank as brokers are yet to adjust for the one-off acquisition accounting adjustments for Suncorp Bank.

The current consensus forecast for the bank's 2H cash profit is $3,308m.

Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and target price of $27.50.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $31.22 Difference: minus $3.72 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.44, suggesting downside of -12.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates APZ as Buy (1) -

Affordable accommodation provider Aspen Group will realise a gain on sale of $8.75m (excluding distributions received to date) after selling -50% of its shareholding in Eureka Group ((EGH)) for $33.6m.

Proceeds will be used to pay down existing debt, observes Bell Potter, thereby reducing gearing to 23% from 26% at FY24.

Management now has around $100m of balance sheet capacity to reinvest into other opportunities, and the company remains one of Bell Potter's highest-conviction views across REIT sector coverage.

Buy. Target rises to $2.50 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.3
If APZ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AX1 as Buy (1) -

Citi extrapolates what Universal Store Holdings' ((UNI)) results could mean for Accent Group and states the youthful consumer is still spending on clothing when the items are on trend with "efficient" marketing.

The broker believes this is a good sign for Accent Group with Nude Lucy, Style Runner and Hype. Although the tough trading conditions could pose headwinds to the banner brands, Platypus, the largest exposure with around 213 stores and Vans at circa 32 stores.

Margins for these banners may come under pressure, the analyst highlights. Buy rated. Target $2.57.

Target price is $2.57 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.22
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.48, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BBT as Add (1) -

BlueBet Holdings reported 1Q25 earnings which Morgans believes is a "strong" result without the full impact of the betr migration.

Net margin at 9.7% was better than expected.

The broker views the path to profitability for Australia as possible with cost savings from exiting the US market. Management reiterated positive EBITDA in 2H25 with continuing momentum into 2Q25.

Add with 33c target price.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.09
If BBT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BBT as Buy (1) -

The 1Q net win margin for BlueBet Holdings of 9.7% beat Ord Minnett's 8.75 forecast and exceeded management's expectation as the BlueBet platform provided a material uplift in customer experience.

The broker also attributes the beat to the new app driving higher engagement and targeted generosities on the platform enabling an efficient use of marketing spend and reactivation of higher-spending customers.

Buy and 38c target retained.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.14
If BBT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CIA as Buy (1) -

Citi observes Champion Iron missed EBITDA for Sept quarter trading update versus consensus, a fall of -59% on the previous quarter and down -52% year-on-year.

Revenues came in lower than the analyst's forecast by -7% and concentrate sales -2% lower. Net income fell -76% on the previous quarter and -70% annually.

The broker is awaiting management's conference call at 12am Sydney time.

Buy rated. Target $7.20.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $5.89 Difference: $1.31
If CIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights Capricorn Metals launched a $200m capital raising at $6 per share, a discount of -5% to the last close.

Some 33m shares will be issued or 9% of share capital. The analyst expects funds raised with cash of $127 at end of 1Q25 will be employed to fund Karlawinda mill expansion ($120m) and Mt Gibson gold project ($346m in capex).

Macquarie adjusts for the issue, lowering EPS estimates by -8% and -3% in FY25/FY26, respectively.

Outperform rating retained. Target price moves down 1% to $7.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.31 Difference: $0.69
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.87, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COL as Buy (1) -

Citi notes 1Q25 sales for Coles Group were in line, broadly, with consensus. The finer details reveal like-for-like supermarket sales advanced 2.4% versus the broker's 4.1% forecast and consensus at 3.1%.

Sales for 2Q25 are meeting 1Q25 the analyst notes. Liquor's like-for-like sales fell -4.4%, worse than expected.

The company announced a third Wilton distribution centre. Citi interprets this as a positive with the first two centres able to achieve $105m in annual cost savings.

Buy rated. Target $21.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $17.70 Difference: $3.3
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.11, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Coronado Global Resources reported lower than consensus production and sales for 3Q2024 which resulted in both revenues missing forecasts with higher costs, Macquarie observes. Cash on hand of US$176m fell short by -US$88m.

Curragh was the main miss for Coronado with unplanned downtime, wet weather and a very thin coal seam impacting.

The company announced debt refinancing which will retire -US$242m of existing debt with the balance from US$400m note issuance used for general purposes.

Macquarie lower EPS forecasts by -73% and -11% for 2024/2025, respectively. Outperform rating unchanged. Target price declines to $1.50 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.5
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.49, suggesting upside of 47.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CTD as Buy (1) -

Citi highlighted Corporate Travel Management reconfirmed FY25 guidance versus some of the travel peers, which suggests EBITDA of around $210m for FY25 which is circa 2% above consensus estimates.

The analyst notes the company's model is volume based and lower airfares support business budgets. The company has also been selected on a US government panel.

Management provided a caveat to guidance, the UK government's budget which included opex reductions to departmental travel, Citi observes.

Buy rated. Target price $13.50.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $11.84 Difference: $1.66
If CTD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.49, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CTT as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter still believes Cettire will continue to outperform its peer group despite evidence of a 2Q slowdown in sales revealed during the release of 1Q results.

During Q1, revenue beat the broker's forecast, but adjusted earnings (EBITDA) were a miss. While the margin trends appear healthy at 5% exiting Q1, the analysts will wait to see delivered margins in the seasonally largest 2Q.

The $2.00 target is kept despite the broker's lower earnings forecast as the assumed risk-free rate falls as the upcoming easing cycle is factored in. The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy on valuation.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.54
If CTT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CXL as Speculative Buy (1) -

While management at Calix has announced a pause in construction of the lithium demonstration plant, Bell Potter expects the joint venture with Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)) will continue progressing other commercial avenues.

Construction works not currently under contract for the plant will be deferred due to weak lithium market conditions, explain the analysts. Both companies in the joint venture will work with government bodies to secure further funding options.

Speculative Buy rating unchanged. Target price falls to $1.55 from $1.90.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.7
If CXL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CXL as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners lowers its target for Calix to $2 from $3 after its joint venture with Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)) will defer any construction works not currently under contract for the Mid-Stream Demonstration Plant.

While disappointing, the project may resume at a later date, and given Calix's other projects the broker still sees material option value at the current share price and retains a Buy rating. High risk.

Calix remains in partnership and discussion with numerous other companies, highlights Shaw.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $1.15
If CXL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 135% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DTL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley gleans from management's positive AGM commentary the pipeline is strong for Data#3 and sales activity is high.

Management expects growth in all lines of business. The broker believes guidance for between $31-33m of 1H25 PBT (consensus forecast $30m) should alleviate concerns around government spending post the Queensland election.

Target price $10. Overweight rating. Industry View: In Line.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $7.71 Difference: $2.29
If DTL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.88, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DXS as Neutral (3) -

Dexus provided a "resilient" trading update, Citi states, with a robust portfolio in current market conditions.

Occupancy rates trended down from June 2024 levels but remain good; office occupancy is at 93.5% and industrial at 96.2%.

The REIT concluded 60 office leasing transactions over 1Q25 with reduced incentives. Citi notes $700m in transactions were conducted, divestments essentially. Industrial developments are on tracks and 29,600sqm of development leasing was achieved at Jandakot site.

Management reiterated guidance with a 37c distribution per share. Neutral retained. Target $7.30.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $0.12
If DXS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.84, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DXS as Underweight (5) -

Management at Dexus has reiterated guidance for FY25 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) of between 44.5-45.5dpu and a 37 cent dividend. 

While the 80 Collins vacancy was expected (reducing overall occupancy to 93.5% from 94.8 at June 30), it highlights the broker's concerns for the REIT's portfolio.

Underweight rating. Unchanged $8.25 target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $1.07
If DXS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.84, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DXS as Buy (1) -

Despite cautious commentary by management during the release of 1Q results by Dexus, Ord Minnett highlights Australian office markets have recorded 91,000 square meters of positive absorption, the strongest in six years.

Office occupancy in Q1 declined to 93.5% from 94.8% due to tenant departures at 80 Collins Street and the broker expects a further decline to 92% over FY25 due to expected departures and lease expirations.

The $8.25 target and Buy rating are unchanged.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $1.07
If DXS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.84, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EBR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans notes EBR Systems completed a $50m capital raising at 82c per share which is expected to boost investment in commercialisation and manufacturing for WiSE CRT systems ahead of FDA approval in 1Q2025.

Speculative Buy rated. Target price $1.76.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.04 Difference: $0.72
If EBR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GOR as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter is unconcerned gold production by Gold Road Resources in Q3 missed the broker's forecast given the return to peak high-grade ore throughput in a strong gold price environment.

The average gold sale price of $3,719/oz beat the broker's $3,433/oz forecast after prices appreciated by $200/oz during the quarter.

Excluding a one-off mining contractor labour claim, costs (AISC) were only slightly higher than the top end of guidance, note the analysts.

Bell Potter's gold price forecasts rise leading to a target for Gold Road Resources of $2.40, up from $2.10. Buy.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.48
If GOR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOR as Outperform (1) -

Gold Road Resources reported weaker 3Q2024 production against Macquarie's forecasts and consensus estimates by -17% and -10%, respectively. All-in-sustaining-costs were higher as stage 4 mining progresses.

Management flagged Gruyere at the lower end of guidance for 2024 and higher mining rates at stage 4 pit are essential to sustaining production levels post 2025 at around 350koz.

Macquarie cuts EPS forecasts by -13% in 2024 and -15% in 2025 because of higher stripping assumptions.

Target price lifts to $2.10 from $2. Outperform rating remains.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.18
If GOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GOR as Buy (1) -

Third quarter production for Gold Road Resources was in line with Ord Minnett's forecast, while higher-than-expected capex offset lower mining costs to arrive at the expected cash number.

Production missed the consensus estimate by -10%, notes the analyst.

Over the next year, Ord Minnett believes Gold Road Resources could potentially trade at a valuation premium. In a positive pricing
environment, investors look favourably upon simple, long-life, low(er) cost, tier 1-type assets, explains the broker.

Buy rating unchanged. Target price lifts to $2.15 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.23
If GOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Buy (1) -

Citi's first take on JB Hi-Fi's 1Q25 results reveals trading is above consensus estimates with like-for-like sales up 5% post the July update at 5.2% growth. Market expectations are at 3.5% for 1H25.

The Good Guys experienced an acceleration in growth to 5% in 1Q25 in like-for-like-sales compared to 2.7% at July update.

JB Hi-Fi NZ also reported a rebound in trading activity. Management gave no commentary on costs or promotional activity.

Buy rated with $85 target price.

Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $77.91 Difference: $7.09
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $73.87, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

On the back of US home builder D.R.Horton's quarterly results which came in below expectations by -15% and guided earnings lower, Citi takes this weak result for James Hardie Industries' new housing exposure to be softer.

The largest US home builder expects reduced home building in FY25 than FY24.

For James Hardie Industries the company has 1Q25 guidance of 18k homes versus 19.3k a year earlier and 23.6k in 4Q24.

Neutral rating and $50.90 target price unchanged.

Target price is $50.90 Current Price is $49.87 Difference: $1.03
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.98, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LTR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter assesses a "highly encouraging" 1Q operational performance at Liontown Resources' Kathleen Valley lithium project.

Spodumene concentrate production was 28.2kt compared to the broker's 25.8kt forecast with an average grade of 5.2% Li2O and processing plant recoveries in line with the analysts' expectations.

Management reiterated ramp-up targets relating to plant throughput and recoveries.

The Speculative Buy rating and $1.50 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.65
If LTR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.91, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTR as Neutral (3) -

Post the Liontown Resources conference call, Citi reiterates the 1Q25 ramp up of Kathleen Valley was better than expected with management pointing to robust shipping of 8.4kt in 2Q25 and total sales of 94kt against market expectations of 47kt.

Management confirmed no plans to stop production which, the analyst estimates, at current rates produces cash flow of $100m but at spot prices of US$740/t the company needs around $100m in debt from LG Solutions by FY26.

With increased capex and higher opex, Citi drops EPS forecasts by -66.3% in FY25 and -23.5% in FY26.

Target price falls to 85c from 95c. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0
If LTR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.91, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie highlights Kathleen Valley ramp up for Liontown Resources is going well with robust throughput rates, the broker notes over 1Q25 period.

Capex came in higher than expected, above both the analyst's and consensus forecasts. Management flagged cash outflows around $65m in 2Q25 with further $50m in cash payments to Kathleen Valley expenses and around $15m on paste plant.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -2% in FY25 and -4% in FY26 for changes in depreciation/amortisation assumptions.

Target price slips to 68c from 70c. No change to Underperform rating.

Target price is $0.68 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.91, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LYC as Hold (3) -

After a better-than-expected 1Q by Lynas Rare Earths, Bell Potter continues to forecast weaker 2Q production, with a planned shutdown at the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) in Malaysia, followed by a stronger 2H of FY25.

The status of the US separation facility is at a stand-still, noted management, with wastewater permitting issues halting progression.

The broker is increasingly concerned about a lower-for-longer pricing cycle in NdPr.

Hold. The target falls to $7.50 from $8.00.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.65 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.79, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LYC as Sell (5) -

Lynas Rare Earths reported lower sales than expected in 1Q25 with a higher average selling price due to NdPr sales mix, Citi explains. 

Management continues to adjust production levels to demand, Mt Weld supplied the Malaysia plant with bagged concentrate from the new Kalgoorlie facility. Lynas Malaysia processed its initial batch of mixed rare earths concentrate at Kalgoorlie during the quarter with a further ramp up in 2Q25.

Citi continues to forecast 10.5kt by the end of FY25 with an estimated decline in production of -8%. 

No change to Sell rating. Target price $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $7.65 Difference: minus $2.15 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.79, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes production was still being managed in Q1 for Lynas Rare Earths in line with weak market demand. NdPr production was broadly in line with forecasts by the broker and consensus.

Gross rare earth oxide (REO) sales revenue missed forecasts by the broker and consensus by -10% and -24%, respectively.

The permitting issue for the company's US processing facility remains, noted management, which is preventing the start of earthworks.

The $5.15 target and Underweight rating are unchanged. Industry View: Attractive. 

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $7.65 Difference: minus $2.5 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.79, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Accumulate (2) -

NdPr prices rose towards the back end of Q1, but Lynas Rare Earths did not see any impact on revenues, notes Ord Minnett, probably due to the timing of sales. The broker anticipates better revenues in Q2.

There was low production in a soft market, but costs fell allowing $30m of operating cashflow, explains the broker.

The analyst highlights progress on the Texas plant has been delayed by a wastewater permitting issue.

The $7.80 target and Accumulate rating are maintained.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.65 Difference: $0.15
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.79, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MEK as Speculative Buy (1) -

Before today's announcement of a capital raise by Meeka Metals, Morgans yesterday refreshed research after a development update by management for the Murchison Gold Project.

The company noted processing, haulage and general infrastructure was running either on or ahead of schedule.

The Speculative Buy rating and 19c target were left unchanged.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.103
If MEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 118% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

Citi's first take on Mineral Resources' Sept quarter update has been superseded by the announcement to divest 100% of the company's gas permits for $1.1bn to Hancock and a joint venture over the remaining acres. 

The broker highlights Hancock will pay up to $1.3bn and this deal should "remove" concerns around the balance sheet.

Citi believes there will be a positive share price reaction, although cautions with the outcome of investigations are due Monday.

Neutral rated. Target price $50.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $36.08 Difference: $13.92
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.00, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MMI as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners assesses a "very solid" 3Q operationally speaking for Metro Mining considering the Bauxite Hills operation is still ramping-up and the recent increase in bauxite prices won’t be fully seen until Q4.

Earnings (EBITDA) of $29.4m missed the broker's $32.3m forecast largely due to an achieved price of $65.3/wmt compared to the analysts' $67/wmt estimate.

Unchanged Buy, High Risk rating and target of 14c. 

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.089
If MMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 175% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Outperform (1) -

Nickel Industries reported 3Q2024 EBITDA at US$108.4m, 17% higher than consensus estimates, Macquarie highlights.

Ore mined was considerably more robust than expectations, 92% higher than the analyst's estimates with around 74% of production from limonite.

Lower nickel metal production from lower nickel pig iron grades, was reported, the analyst explains. Macquarie increases 2024 EPS forecast by 3%.

Target price lifts to $1.04 by around 9%. Outperform rating remains.

Target price is $1.04 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: $0.075
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.12, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NIC as Overweight (1) -

Total 3Q nickel sales for Nickel Industries missed forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus by -5% and -7%, respectively, while production beat the consensus forecast by 8%.

Management noted the nickel price increased in each month over Q3, with the realised price beating the broker's forecast by between 10-15% across all assets.

Target $1.00. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive. 

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: $0.035
If NIC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.12, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Sell (5) -

Citi considers the 2Q24 results from BASF and ADAMA for Nufarm.

BASF results showed destocking across supply chains and customers, which are essentially complete in Europe and North America.

The analyst highlights an uptick in volumes for BASF and a marginal improvement for ADAMA are positive, reinforcing the view the industry is moving to restocking. A rise in volumes is expected to be underpinned by pricing cuts and incentives.

Citi remains cautious on Nufarm as price cutting could impact the industry.

Sell rated. Target $3.65.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates NXL as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Catching up to the current $7.14 share price, Shaw and Partners raises its target for Nuix to $7.20 from $5.20, noting the recently launched AI-enriched data intelligence platform Nuix Neo is boosting the company's growth.

The broker points out the larger-scale US-based Palantir Technologies is experiencing a similar level of relative demand for its products, providing a pointer to potential future profitability of Nuix.

Nuix currently serves overs 1,000 enterprise customers and the broker expects a majority will migrate to Neo over the next five years.

Buy rating (High risk) unchanged.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $7.14 Difference: $0.06
If NXL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PLS as Hold (3) -

Ramp-up the P680’s ore sorting facility supported impressive lithium recoveries for Pilbara Minerals in Q1, according to Bell Potter.

Overall, the company reported quarterly spodumene concentrate (SC) production of 220kt , beating the broker's 185kt forecast.

Revised FY25 guidance points to reductions of -100kt and -7%, respectively for SC production and unit costs, observe the analysts.

From December 1, management will place the Ngungaju processing plant on temporary care and maintenance, reduce mining fleets, and defer non-essential capital expenditure.

The mid-stream demonstration plant construction will also be paused, notes the broker. No change to Hold rating. Target price declines to $2.95 from $3.00.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $0.07
If PLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Citi observes the update of a reduction in production at Ngungaju from Pilbara Minerals was viewed as positive by the market which the broker estimates will support the company's cash flows.

Removal of Ngungaju lifts the analyst's FY25 cash flow by around $150m and lowers capex by circa -$30/t.

The broker highlights 1Q25 result was better than expected with lower realised pricing.

Citi lifts FY25 EPS estimate by 33.1% and lowers FY26 EPS forecast by -18.7%.

Neutral rated. Target price $2.90. Pilbara Minerals is the broker's preferred ASX200 lithium exposure and name in a "risk-on environment".

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $0.02
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie believes the 1Q25 results from Pilbara Minerals were surpassed by the company's decision to reduce FY25 production guidance by -12% because of Ngungaju moving to care and maintenance.

This is expected to save around -$200m in cash flow for FY25.

The broker highlights 1Q25 production was better than expected with a focus to lower cost and make the plant more productive assisting Pilgan's results.

Macquarie is currently on research restriction for Pilbara Minerals and offers no rating or target price.

Current Price is $2.88. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Equal-weight (3) -

Pilbara Minerals' spodumene concentrate production came in at 220kt for Q1, beating forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus by 18% and 10%, respectively. Overall, the broker assesses a good quarter given market conditions.

The broker notes these results benefited from higher lithium grades, which will eventually fall.

For the near-term, the Ngangaju closure due to market conditions is accretive to valuation by reducing capital requirements, improving recoveries, and reducing mining complexity, explain the analysts.

The target for Pilbara Minerals rises to $3.00 from $2.95. Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $0.12
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PLS as Add (1) -

Morgans highlights a "strong" production report from Pilbara Minerals with costs above expectations for 1Q25.

Notably, management announced Ngungaju will be placed into care and maintenance to assist cash flows and balance sheet.

Morgans lowers forecast spodumene production by -13% and -24% in FY25/FY26 with Ngungaju assumed to remain in care and maintenance until the latter part of 2027. The broker also lowers cost estimates which broadly net off for earnings forecasts.

Target price falls to $3.25 from $3.30. Add rated. Pilbara Minerals remains the key pick in lithium.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $0.37
If PLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PMV as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Post the binding bid from Myer Holdings ((MYR)) for Premier Investments' apparel brands, Citi believes much of the good news is backed into the share price with a risk Premier's shareholders divest Myer shares.

No pickup in trading conditions is anticipated for Premier in near-term, but there is a potential incremental boost to Premier from improved Myer performance. 

Citi estimates every 1ppt rise in gross margin for Myer equals around a $5m lift in Myer's earnings which benefits Premier shareholders.

The analyst lowers EPS forecasts by -7.1% and -9.8% for FY25 and FY26.

Target price of $36 retained. Stock downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $33.28 Difference: $2.72
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.88, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie explains weakness in Ramelius Resources' 1Q25 results came from stockpiling higher grades at Cue with increased all-in-sustaining-costs from stockpile drawdowns at Edna May.

Production came in below forecasts by -9% and -13% below consensus. Management made no changes to FY25 guidance.

Macquarie lifts FY25 EPS by 1% and 5% for FY26 on better grades from Cue.

Target price rises 9% to $2.50. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.16
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

Resolute Mining reported a "soft" 3Q2024 result, Macquarie assesses with production below estimates by -5% from rain issues at Mako.

All-in-sustaining-costs were higher than the broker's and consensus expectations by 8%/11%, respectively.

Management lowered 2024 guidance to the bottom end of the previous range with costs lifted to upper end of range.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -5% for 2024 and -7% for 2025 due to lower grades at Mako. With Tombo coming into Mako in the longer term, the broker lifts estimates further out for 2027/2030.

Target price rises 16% to 95c because of higher longer-term earnings forecasts. No change to Outperform rating.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.11
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SFR as Hold (3) -

Production for Q1 at Sandfire Resources was in line with Morgans' forecast and FY24 guidance was reiterated. The target rises to $9.70 from $9.25 largely because the broker includes a lower Australian dollar forecast in its financial model.

Even though there has been steady progress by management in reducing net debt, the analyst delays its forecast for dividend resumption to FY26.

The Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $10.29 Difference: minus $0.59 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.78, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SPK as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights a downgrade in midpoint FY25 EBITDA guidance of -3.5% from Spark New Zealand with dividend guidance dropped to NZ25c by -NZ2.5c per share.

The downgrade comes on the back of May's downgrade and continues to reflect cyclical issues with prepaid mobile and some structural elements from government/corporate spending, the broker comments.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by around -7% for FY25/FY26 and notes the change is disappointing but the share price is discounting a lot of "downside risks".

Outperform. Target is reduced to NZ$4.34 from NZ$4.72.

Current Price is $2.73. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SYR as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners leaves its forecasts for Syrah Resources unchanged after reviewing 3Q results.

Market conditions remain depressed, note the analysts, with the price of natural graphite fines falling towards US$400/t FOB China between July and September.

Ramp up continues at Vidalia, with management expecting active anode material (AAM) sales under offtake to begin in 2025 to a combination of Tesla and three additional customers still in negotiation.

The Buy, High Risk rating and 80c target are retained.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.52
If SYR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 186% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.56, suggesting upside of 79.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates UNI as Buy (1) -

Citi remains upbeat on Universal Store post its AGM trading update, highlighting what a "good job" the company is doing considering there is such a challenging macro-economic backdrop.

Although the broker is positive, the analyst flagged some uncertainties around the opex increase and its durability as well as whether volume increases in Nov/Dec offset some of the higher costs of doing business,

Citi lowers EPS estimates by -4% to -3% in FY25 to FY27 with costs of doing business offsetting improved sales.

Target price rises to $8.91 from $7.90 due to a lift in premium ascribed to the stock. Unchanged Buy rating.

Target price is $8.91 Current Price is $7.99 Difference: $0.92
If UNI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.08, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates UNI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie explains Universal Store reported growth in total sales of 19.3% for FY25 year-to-date with accelerating like-for-like sales in both US and Perfect Stranger brands. Implied gross margins are 70bps better than expectations.

The broker notes cost of doing business came in around 100bps above the previous corresponding period because of inflation and investment in teams.

Macquarie tweaks EPS estimates by less than 1% for FY25/FY26.

Outperform rating unchanged. Target price lifts to $8.40 from $7.80.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $7.99 Difference: $0.41
If UNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.08, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates UNI as Add (1) -

The analysts at Morgans were impressed by a 19.3% rise in direct to consumer (DTC)  sales for Universal Store in the first 17 weeks of FY25 compared to the previous corresponding period.

Like-for-like sales for Universal Store and Perfect Stranger accelerated in the last 10 weeks compared to the first seven, while sales moderated for the CTC Thrills DTC business, explains the broker. Wholesale demand (ex-Universal Store) remains volatile.

The broker's target rises to $8.75 from $8.10, a reflection of both higher peer multiples and upgraded earnings forecasts. Add rating.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $7.99 Difference: $0.76
If UNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.08, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WBC as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett estimates around 0.5% upside risk to the 2H consensus forecast for Westpac as brokers are yet to adjust management's decision to hedge accounting volatility which impacts upon the net interest margin (NIM).

The current consensus forecast for the bank's 2H cash profit is $3,522m.

Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and target price of $27.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $32.01 Difference: minus $5.01 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.92, suggesting downside of -13.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -

Citi's first take on Wesfarmers' AGM update suggests an improvement in Bunnings and weakness emerging in KMart, Officeworks and Industrial and Safety.

The absence of more details on the difference with FY23 tradings is highlighted by the analyst as noticeable.

As per the commentary, weakness in the residential housing sector is weighing on Bunnings' commercial business with year-to-date sales growth still positive.

Business customers are impacting Officeworks. KMart's unit sales are growing, but there is evidence of consumers trading down.

Sell rated. $61 target price.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $67.64 Difference: minus $6.64 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $65.17, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WOW as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi's analyst admits the pressure on Woolworths Group's Australian food business was "underappreciated" in term of margin pressures to reach sales targets which has continued from August.

The broker believes there is more work to improve the image around brand and price perceptions. The view is that further earnings downgrades remain possible.

Citi lowers EBIT forecasts by -8% for FY25/FY26. Target price cut to $34 from $38.56. The stock is downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $30.81 Difference: $3.19
If WOW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.12, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie transfers coverage of Woolworths Group, retaining a Neutral rating.

Woolworths Group reported 1H25 EBITDA guidance which was below the broker's forecasts by -6.5% with pressure on margins as customers trade down and eCommerce growth rises, the analyst states.

Macquarie comments management is looking to advance momentum in food sales with higher volumes rather than price.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -9% for FY25 and -5% for FY26 because of lower Australian food margin assumptions.

Target price declines -12% to $32.50.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $30.81 Difference: $1.69
If WOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.12, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WOW as Overweight (1) -

New 1H earnings (EBIT) guidance for Australian Food by Woolworths Group missed the consensus forecast by -7%, notes Morgan Stanley.

Impacting upon Australian Food margins, ecommerce growth came in ahead of expectations driven by less than two hour delivery times, notes Morgan Stanley.

Elsewhere in Q1, BigW item growth of 5.2% was offset by lower average selling price, observe the analysts, as the mix changes to a new range of lower-priced items and outright price reductions are implemented.

Management is aiming to improve promotional effectiveness as well as adopting prudent cost settings for Q2 to address margin weakness, explains the broker.

Overweight rating. Target $38. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $30.81 Difference: $7.19
If WOW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.12, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WOW as Hold (3) -

Supply chain investments, ecommerce, and price investments are creating headwinds, concludes Ord Minnett, after reviewing a "soft" 1Q update by Woolworths Group, including "weak" earnings (EBIT) guidance for Australian Food.

The broker has concerns about spending without share gains or earnings growth. Margin pressures are expected to continue
into H2 of FY25, with supply chain headwinds increasing.

The target drops to $32 from $35. Hold.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $30.81 Difference: $1.19
If WOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.12, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes Australian 1Q25 food sales for Woolworths Group came in better than consensus,  but EBIT was lower than expectations.

The trading down by consumers to cheaper items and the company's desire to retain sales momentum impacted on EBIT and margins, the analyst explains. There were also higher promotional activities.

Management highlighted a focus on promotions and "prudent" cost settings for 2Q25.

UBS lowers EPS forecasts by -5% for FY25/FY26.

The Neutral rating is maintained. Target price lowers to $31.25 from $33.

Target price is $31.25 Current Price is $30.81 Difference: $0.44
If WOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.12, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ZIP as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes a strong quarterly performance from Zip Co's US business with total transaction values up 43% year-on-year despite challenging comps.

The broker highlights a rise in net bad debts with loss rates of 1.55% against 1.3% in 4Q24 which is not surprising given the risk for attaining new customers.

Despite an increase in marketing spend, US opex rose 6% which meets expectations from headcount analysis, the analyst states.

Citi lifts EPS forecasts by 19.9% in FY25 and 21.3% in FY26.Target price lifts to $3.15 from $2.90.

Due to the valuation on the stock, the broker retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.13
If ZIP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.07, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources