Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates A1M as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

The broker expects AIC Mines to report 3.2kt copper production in the September quarter and cost of $4.8/lb. Update on the Link Drive development and mill expansion will be eyed.

The broker lifted FY26 and FY27 EBITDA forecasts by 20% and 5%, respectively.

Buy. Target rises to 55c from 50c.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.13
If A1M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting upside of 43.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates A4N as Speculative Buy (1) -

Alpha HPA offered a project update, including three new offtake letters of intent and better market discovery pricing.

Bell Potter highlights the letters of intent are in the semiconductor sector for chemical mechanical planarisation and thermal filler applications.

Market discovery pricing indicates an average price of US$28.5/kg, a rise of 11% since the May 2024 definitive feasibility study.

The analyst points out the first Alpha HPA project will produce around 10ktpa of product, with the new letters of intent adding to that expectation.

There is no change to the analyst's Speculative Buy rating and $2 target price.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $0.77 Difference: $1.23
If A4N meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 160% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AIS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

At the September quarterly, the broker expects Aeris Resources to report total production of 11kt copper equivalent, and cost of $81/lb. Slight cash build is expected after capex spend.

The broker will look for updates on the NQ assets sale and the early drilling program at Jaguar. EBITDA forecast for FY26 lifted by 16% and by 7% for FY27.

Speculative Buy maintained for Aeris Resources. Target rises to 66c from 55c.

Target price is $0.66 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.11
If AIS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.49, suggesting downside of -17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALK as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

At the preliminary September quarter report, Alkane Resources' 35.5koz production fell short of the broker's forecast of 39koz. Despite this, cash and bullion beat the broker's forecast by $19m, with further details on realised pricing, costs and capex awaited at full report.

EBITDA forecast for FY26 lifted by 6% and by 4% for FY27.

Accumulate maintained for Alkane Resources. Target rises to $1.50 from $1.45.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $0.37
If ALK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMI as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

In the case of Aurelia Metals, the broker expects solid production in the September quarter of 21.6kt gold equivalent. This, together with benefit from elevated gold prices, is expected to boost cash flow, giving sufficient capacity to fund growth projects.

The broker trimmed FY26 EBITDA and EPS forecasts by -6% and -9%, respectively, but lifted FY27 EBITDA and EPS forecasts by 6% and 8%, respectively. 

Buy. Target trimmed to 38c from 39c.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.11
If AMI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.37, suggesting upside of 35.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Management outlined new strategic targets at the ANZ Bank investor day, with Citi highlighting stronger cost and synergy outcomes than expected. Accelerated timelines and higher savings are considered positive, aided by the group’s technology overhaul.

The bank announced around -$800m in cost savings for FY26 and upgraded Suncorp Bank synergies to around $500m, supporting a mid-40s cost-to-income ratio by FY29.

The ANZ Plus program will be simplified to deliver a new front-end platform to all 8m customers by September 2027, reducing duplicated systems and improving efficiency, note the analysts.

The broker notes the board elected to maintain the dividend at its current level, contrary to market expectations for a cut.

Citi retains a Neutral rating and $32.50 target.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $36.01 Difference: minus $3.51 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.95, suggesting downside of -14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

ANZ Bank presented an ambitious medium-term plan at the investor day, in Macquarie's view. While management displayed solid confidence in cost savings, the broker notes ongoing execution risk.

Management’s goal is to deliver around -$800m in FY26 cost savings and increase Suncorp Bank synergies to around $500m, aiming to cut the cost base to $11-11.5bn by FY28.

Macquarie sees potential upside if even part of these targets is met though cautions that aggressive cost reductions could risk underinvestment and slower revenue growth.

The dividend will be maintained through discounted dividend reinvestment plans, raising around $1.5bn in capital.

Macquarie raises its target price to $34 from $33 and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $36.01 Difference: minus $2.01 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.95, suggesting downside of -14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

ANZ Bank's new return on tangible equity (ROTE) and cost-to-income (CTI) targets, revealed at the bank's investor day, are seen as achievable by Morgan Stanley but dependent on strong execution.

The broker highlights -$800m in FY26 cost savings and higher Suncorp Bank synergies of $500m, supporting CTI falling below 50% by FY28. Management’s clear communication boosts the analysts' confidence in the three-year expense outlook.

Morgan Stanley remains cautious on ANZ’s ability to accelerate revenue growth amid similar strategies from peers.

The decision to cancel the buyback was unsurprising to Morgan Stanley, with the discounted dividend reinvestment plan expected to have a similar impact on the net payout ratio as a dividend reduction.

The Equal-weight rating and $30.50 target are maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $36.01 Difference: minus $5.51 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.95, suggesting downside of -14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

The strategy update from ANZ Bank's new CEO, Nuno Matos, is viewed as pretty "straightforward" according to Ord Minnett, combining a mix of removing inefficient and duplicate aspects of the business group. It also addressed technical factors with the bank's Plus project.

The CEO announced a return on tangible equity target of 12% by FY28 and 13% by FY30, compared to 10.2% in FY25, as well as a cost-to-income ratio in the mid-40s by FY28 versus 52.5% in 1H25.

The major cost-outs highlighted are queried by the analyst, as these are often something that has been challenging for Australia's major banks to achieve. In a trade-off between cost reduction and revenue targets, Ord Minnett believes ANZ will achieve the former and less so the latter.

A Hold rating and $30 target are retained by the analyst.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $36.01 Difference: minus $6.01 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.95, suggesting downside of -14.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Sell (5) -

ANZ Bank CEO Nuno Matos and CFO Farhan Faruqui offered investors the 2030 strategy update, including cost savings of $800m from FY26.

Some $534m is from the 3,500 full-time employee reductions, with the remaining from an upgrade in cost synergies to around $500m from previous guidance of $260m by FY28 from the Suncorp Bank integration.

Intergration costs have also been raised to -$745m pre-tax versus -$680m previously.

The remaining $800m share buyback has been cancelled, with the 2H25 dividend per share indicated to be the same as 1H25.

Annual investment spend aligns with FY23-24 at around $1.5bn.

UBS retains a Sell rating, noting the stock is trading at over three standard deviations above its historical average. No change to the analyst's earnings estimates. Target moves to $30 from $26.50.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $36.01 Difference: minus $6.01 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.95, suggesting downside of -14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BBN as Buy (1) -

Baby Bunting announced a positive trading update with sales coming in slightly above Citi's expectations. Adjusting for stores closed for refurbishment, like-for-like sales growth rose to 5.6% from 4% in the first six weeks of FY26.

Proforma FY26 net profit after tax guidance was indicated by the company at $17-$20m versus consensus at $18m, with more of a 2H skew than the analyst expected.

The CEO highlighted there had been no erosion of larger format store sales from two recently opened small format stores. 1Q26 gross margins were 40.6%, which is better than anticipated, up 30bps on the previous period and in excess of consensus at 40.5%.

FY26 gross margin guidance was retained at 41%.

Citi reiterates its Buy rating, with the $3.04 target retained.

Target price is $3.04 Current Price is $3.17 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If BBN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley sees further upside in the ASX Resources sector, with lower interest rates, higher inflation tolerance, and a weaker US dollar expected to support commodity and mining equities.

Iron ore prices remain above consensus forecasts, creating potential for earnings upgrades across the sector, in the analysts' view.

BHP Group and Rio Tinto ((RIO)) are expected to benefit from continued rotation into diversified miners, with the broker keeping a preference for BHP given its stronger copper exposure and more attractive valuation.

Morgan Stanley also favours South32 ((S32)) for its base metals exposure and around 25% copper earnings (EBITDA) contribution, and Mineral Resources ((MIN)) given the broker's above-consensus Onslow production forecasts.

The $48 target and Overweight rating are maintained for BHP Group, Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $41.89 Difference: $6.11
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.15, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BLX as Buy (1) -

Citi describes the trading update at Beacon Lighting's AGM as patchy, with sales easing in late August and into September.

The analyst points to the slowdown in sales being driven by a perception of a shorter interest rate cutting cycle than previously anticipated.

Cooler weather in September which didn’t support demand for ceiling fans, and consumers deferring purchases until the Black Friday period also weighed.

Citi is forecasting 1H26 like-for-like sales growth of 2.95% versus consensus at 3.32%, which is now considered possibly too high given the AGM update.

The stock is Buy rated with a $4.28 target by the broker.

Target price is $4.28 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: $0.94
If BLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.98, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOE as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

Long-term uranium prices rose less than the broker's expectation in the September quarter, and to reflect this, 2025-2026 price estimates were trimmed slightly.

FY26 EBITDA forecast for Boss Energy cut by -5% but FY27 was lifted by 1%.

Hold. Target unchanged at $2.10.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.18
If BOE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

In the cash of Bathurst Resources, the broker lifted FY26 EBITDA forecast by 15% and FY27 by 1%.

Buy maintained for Bathurst Resources. Target rises to 98c from 94c.

Target price is $0.98 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.24
If BRL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CAT as Overweight (1) -

Catapult Sports announced the acquisition of Impect, a proprietary soccer analytics software company, for up to US$91m, including upfront cash of US$46m and US$44m deferred and contingent over four years, Morgan Stanley notes.

The company is small but highlighted as growing quickly, with an average contract value at a CAGR of 68% from July 2023 to July 2025, and is considered to provide a good strategic fit with Catapult.

A fully underwritten institutional placement of US$84m, with a share purchase plan aiming to raise US$13m, will assist with funding.

Overweight. Target rises to $7.90, with the analyst noting there is no room for error at the current ascribed valuation for the stock.

Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.24 Difference: $0.66
If CAT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.97, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAT as Buy (1) -

UBS considers the acquisition price for Catapult Sports' purchase of Impect, a "packing"-based analytics tool for soccer teams, as "reasonable".

The price includes an upfront payment of US$46m, US$32m in Catapult shares that vest over four years, and a US$12m earn-out, with the company raising $130m via an equity issue and a $20m share purchase program.

A 1H26 trading update was announced with annual contract value of US$115.3-US$115.6m, or like-for-like growth of 19% on the prior year. The analyst notes this is 2% above consensus and is viewed as a "solid" outlook.

Backing out one-offs of -US$2m, earnings (EBITDA) guidance is between US$11-US$11.5m. Ex payroll expense is US$10.7m and highlighted as a better comparison, with margins of 52%, the fourth consecutive period above 50%.

UBS notes the global tech sports market is undergoing consolidation. The stock remains Buy rated with an unchanged $7 target price.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.24 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If CAT meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.97, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CRN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

At Coronado Global Resources' September quarterly, the broker expects a stronger result, driven by more stable production from the recently expanded Buchanan operation and the ongoing ramp-up at Mammoth UG.

However, cash is expected to remain broadly flat q/q, as lower coal prices continue to impact free cash flow. EBITDA forecast for FY26 lifted by 33% and by 34% for FY27.

Hold. Target rises to 32c from 26c.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If CRN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.24, suggesting downside of -37.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

The broker expects Evolution Mining to report production of 186koz in the September quarter and cost of $1,670/0z. Cash build is forecast to rise by $160m on elevated gold prices, and net debt is seen declining to $640m.

EBITDA forecast for FY26 lifted by 8% and by 6% for FY27.

Hold. Target rises to $10.20 from $9.55.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $11.21 Difference: minus $1.01 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.94, suggesting downside of -21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FBU as Buy (1) -

Fletcher Building's September quarter update was broadly in line with Citi’s expectations, with patchy trading conditions across key segments.

The broker notes sequential improvement in Wallboards, Cement and Ready Mix, while Frame and Truss volumes remained positive. Residential and Aggregates activity weakened, highlighting continued softness in housing and infrastructure demand.

Management is targeting further cost reductions of around -NZ$100m, mainly through back-office efficiencies, which could help de-risk FY26 earnings.

The broker maintains its view that housing recovery remains the key driver for operational improvement.

Buy rating. NZ$3.50 target.

Current Price is $2.85. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMD as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

The broker forecasts a 14% q/q increase in Genesis Minerals' production in the September quarter, and sees record gold prices leading to strong cash build of $63m in the quarter. 

EBITDA forecast for FY26 lifted by 2% and by 6% for FY27.

Genesis Minerals has an Accumulate rating. Target rises to $6.25 from $5.90.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $6.07 Difference: $0.18
If GMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.07, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Management at Hub24 will present at the Citi A&NZ Conference, with the broker outlining key areas of investor focus.

The company has achieved around 30% year-on-year growth in first-quarter flows to $2.55bn but the broker questions whether momentum softened late in the quarter, as seen at peers.

The analysts also seek clarity on the implications of the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) letter requesting tighter fund onboarding and monitoring, and whether Hub24 may need to reduce its approved product list.

Citi also queries whether stricter fund scrutiny could dampen industry-wide flows and whether Hub24’s recent hiring reflects stronger growth or rising compliance demands.

Citi retains a Neutral rating and $109 target price with a Catalyst Watch: Upside, expires November 18.

Target price is $109.00 Current Price is $99.14 Difference: $9.86
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.59, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has raised its long-term neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) price forecast to US$110/kg (real) from US$95/kg. It's felt the price floor set between US-based MP Materials and the US Department of Defense will act as a future benchmark.

The broker anticipates NdPr prices will peak around US$120/kg by late 2026-early 2027, supported by strong magnet demand from electric vehicles, white goods, and electronics, alongside a limited supply response.

Shares in Iluka Resources and Lynas Rare Earths have outpaced recent NdPr gains, with Macquarie suggesting limited upside from any further Chinese controls.

The broker's target for Iluka Resources rises by 8% to $7.10. Neutral maintained.

Macquarie feels Meteoric Resources offers greater share price upside.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $7.68 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.49, suggesting downside of -27.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has raised its long-term neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) price forecast to US$110/kg (real) from US$95/kg. It's felt the price floor set between US-based MP Materials and the US Department of Defense will act as a future benchmark.

The broker anticipates NdPr prices will peak around US$120/kg by late 2026-early 2027, supported by strong magnet demand from electric vehicles, white goods, and electronics, alongside a limited supply response.

Shares in Lynas Rare Earths and Iluka Resources have outpaced recent NdPr gains, with Macquarie suggesting limited upside from  any further Chinese controls.

The broker's target for Lynas Rare Earths rises by $2.00 to $18.50. Neutral maintained.

Macquarie feels Meteoric Resources offers greater share price upside.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $20.26 Difference: minus $1.76 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.65, suggesting downside of -35.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Sell (5) -

Ahead of the September quarterly report, Ord Minnett expects Lynas Rare Earths to report production of 2,100t NdPr.

The broker will be looking for commentary on REO demand and pricing trends, plus updates on the company's $750m capital deployment plans.

The broker will also be looking for details on the dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb) ramp-up progress.

Sharp lifts to EBITDA forecasts for FY26-27. 

Sell. Target unchanged at $10.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $20.26 Difference: minus $10.26 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.65, suggesting downside of -35.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MEI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its long-term neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) price forecast to US$110/kg (real) from US$95/kg. It's felt the price floor set between US-based MP Materials and the US Department of Defense will act as a future benchmark.

The broker anticipates NdPr prices will peak around US$120/kg by late 2026-early 2027, supported by strong magnet demand from electric vehicles, white goods, and electronics, alongside a limited supply response.

Shares in Lynas Rare Earths and Iluka Resources have outpaced recent NdPr gains, with Macquarie suggesting limited upside from  any further Chinese controls.

Macquarie feels Meteoric Resources offers greater share price upside. The broker's target rises by 15% to 39c on an improved longer-term earnings outlook. Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.18
If MEI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.31, suggesting upside of 25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MI6 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Minerals 260 announced metallurgical test work results for its 2.3moz Bullabulling gold project.

Positively, Morgans notes the results showed gold recoveries of 90%-95%, which are well above the historical actuals of 87% and the analyst's estimate of 86%.

These results will contribute to the December 2025 mineral resource estimate and pre-feasibility study in mid-2026. The analyst anticipates the mineral resource to come in above 3Moz of gold, with potential upscaling to over 3.5Moz.

Morgans has lifted its assumed metallurgical recovery to 94.2%, a rise of 9% on the initial estimate, with an uptick in the processing costs of 25% to account for the higher grid size assumed. All-in-sustaining-cost estimates are unchanged.

A Speculative Buy rating is retained by the analyst, with a lift in target price to 55c from 50c.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.24
If MI6 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.45, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MLX as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

For Metals X, the broker expects broadly steady q/q production in the September quarter as mining ramps up at Area 5 and Leatherwood. With tax losses now exhausted, free cash flow is seen declining in the quarter.

FY25 EBITDA forecast lifted by 7% and by 14% for FY26.

Buy. Target unchanged at 80c.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If MLX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

The broker expects Northern Star Resources to report a -12% q/q decline in September quarter production due to lower feed at KCGM and Thunderbox/Bronzewing.

Key focus remains on KCGM expansion progress and any cost/capex updates impacting Hemi’s future development

Hold retained for Northern Star Resources. Target rises to $25.80 from $24.30.

Target price is $25.80 Current Price is $24.35 Difference: $1.45
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.96, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

Long-term uranium prices rose less than the broker's expectation in the September quarter, and to reflect this, 2025-2026 price estimates were trimmed slightly.

FY26 EBITDA forecast for Paladin Energy cut by -9% and by -1% for FY27.

Hold. Target unchanged at $7.60.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $8.78 Difference: minus $1.18 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.17, suggesting downside of -4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PLY as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Playside Studios has announced it has signed a 12-month extension on its existing work-for-hire contract with Meta, on work around the Horizon Worlds social platform.

Shaw and Partners notes the stock rallied 13% on the news, which is considered a de-risking event as well as providing further upside catalysts over the next 6-9 months. These include the launch of Mouse in 1H26 and trailers for Game of Thrones and Dumb Ways in FY26.

The analyst reiterates a Buy, High risk rating, with an unchanged target of 43c per share. No change to the earnings estimates.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.2
If PLY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNR as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

The broker expects Pantoro Gold to report a stable q/q production in the September quarter, leading to above 100koz run-rate in FY26. The company's guidance for FY26 is 100-110koz.

FY26 EBITDA forecast lifted by 6%.

Pantoro Gold has an Accumulate rating. Target rises to $6.65 from $6.35.

Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $6.19 Difference: $0.46
If PNR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.99, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates POL as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

Speculative Buy maintained for Polymetals Resources. Target rises to $1.60 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.31
If POL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QPM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

Speculative Buy maintained for QPM Energy. Target unchanged at 13c.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.09
If QPM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 225% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Citi assesses Rio Tinto delivered a solid September quarter today. In an initial assessment the broker highlights stronger production and steady costs across key commodities.

Copper equivalent output rose 9% year-on-year, led by broad-based growth, explain the analysts. Pilbara iron ore shipments recovered to 84.3mt, up 6% quarter-on-quarter, broadly in line with Citi's expectations.

Copper production rose 10% to 261kt, supported by continued strength at Oyu Tolgoi, explain the analysts. It's felt the operation remains on track to deliver a 50% annual increase.

Management upgraded full-year bauxite guidance to 59-61mt, reflecting improved utilisation at Weipa, notes the broker, while cost guidance for iron ore and copper was maintained.

The broker expects copper production and by-product credits from higher gold prices to support margins into year-end.

Neutral rating. Target price $119.

Target price is $119.00 Current Price is $125.21 Difference: minus $6.21 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $120.08, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

The broker expects Ramelius Resources' production to dip in the September quarter as Edna May ends and Mt Magnet grades normalise. Still, cash generation of $50m is expected due to strong cost control.

EBITDA forecast for FY26-27 increased by 4% each.

Buy maintained for Ramelius Resources. Target rises to $4.70 from $4.30.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.89 Difference: $0.81
If RMS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SBM as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

The broker expects St. Barbara to report 16koz production in the September quarter as production recovers from the adverse weather events at Simberi.

EBITDA forecast for FY26 lifted by 12% and by 4% for FY27.

Hold maintained for St. Barbara. Target rises to 58c from 50c.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If SBM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -

Steadfast Group’s September quarter pricing trends were mixed, according to Macquarie, with strength in Business Pack, Strata, and Workers Compensation, offset by softness in Commercial Motor and Home.

The broker estimates pricing growth of around 2.2% for the quarter, below guidance due to weaker July and August outcomes.

The analyst's earnings forecasts remain unchanged.

Macquarie maintains a $7.00 target price and an Outperform rating. It's noted Steadfast trades at an around -10.9% discount to international brokers versus a long-term 2.2% premium.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.07 Difference: $0.93
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.85, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SEK as Buy (1) -

Management at Seek will present at the Citi A&NZ Conference, with the broker highlighting key questions around trading conditions and growth strategy. Weakness in Asia is noted, particularly Hong Kong, where hiring remains subdued.

With the company guiding to flat FY26 volumes, the broker queries whether the absence of further rate cuts could pressure this outlook, alongside potential negative mix effects in the second half.

Further queries relate to the impact of the Hong Kong freemium rollout, progress in attracting new small and medium-sized enterprises, and whether further investment is required to lift usage.

The broker also seeks clarity on Asia’s potential for stronger growth in FY27 as freemium impacts fade and on risks and opportunities from Agentic AI integration.

Buy rating. Target $31.65.

Target price is $31.65 Current Price is $27.46 Difference: $4.19
If SEK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.56, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

The broker expects Sandfire Resources to report a solid start to FY26, with 25.6kt production in the September quarter, aligning with FY26 guidance.

EBITDA forecast for FY26 lifted by 7% and by 6% for FY27.

Accumulate maintained for Sandfire Resources. Target rises to $16.45 from $13.35.

Target price is $16.45 Current Price is $15.66 Difference: $0.79
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.43, suggesting downside of -17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFX as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

For mineral sands, the broker trimmed price forecasts through to 2028.

FY26 EBITDA forecast for Sheffield Resources cut by -50% and by -43% for FY27.

Hold. Target unchanged at 13c.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If SFX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SHL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes Sonic Healthcare Ltd’s second-half FY25 performance softened due to slower revenue and earnings growth, while margins held steady year-on-year.

Sonic has delivered modest earnings per share (EPS) growth of 1.7% per annum over the past decade, the analysts highlight. Return on equity (ROE) has also trended lower as sustained margin compression weighs on profitability.

Morgan Stanley expects FY26 earnings (EBITDA) growth of 12-17% (8-13% constant currency), mainly from acquisitions, while FY27-28 EPS forecasts are between -7-12% below consensus on margin caution.

The broker lowers its target to $23.80 from $26.40 and retains an Equal-weight rating. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $23.80 Current Price is $21.05 Difference: $2.75
If SHL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.02, suggesting upside of 30.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

The broker expects a stronger September quarter production from Stanmore Resources, up 13% q/q on better conditions at South Walker Creek. Higher sales volumes is seen lifting cash by +US$13m vs 30 June.

Buy maintained for Stanmore Resources. Target rises to $2.60 from $2.55.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $0.36
If SMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.98, suggesting upside of 31.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TUA as Overweight (1) -

Tuas delivered a solid FY25 result in mid-September, suggests Morgan Stanley, broadly in line with the broker's expectations. Only minor changes are made to the to analysts' earnings forecasts ahead of the M1 Limited acquisition.

Subscriber growth remains strong, highlights the broker, supported by Tuas’ strategy of offering more data, speed, and roaming at stable pricing.

The analysts now have greater confidence in management achieving over -$70m in cost synergies, with additional benefits expected from capital expenditure savings and future integration with M1.

Investor focus remains on regulatory approval and competitive dynamics as the market transitions from four to three players, suggests Morgan Stanley.

A $9.50 target price and an Overweight rating are maintained. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $6.67 Difference: $2.83
If TUA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Sell (5) -

Treasury Wine Estates faces further near-term pressure, suggests Citi, with additional downside risks to earnings ahead of this week’s AGM. It's felt the pause in the $200m buyback, announced only in August, signals heightened operational uncertainty.

The prior distributor disruption impact now appears greater than the original -$50m estimated by management. Around $100m of inventory is being held by Republic National Distributing Company, which could affect sales across other US states, explains Citi.

Sales of Penfolds wines to Chinese consumers are below management's expectations, while greater wine availability in FY26 may present further headwinds, suggest the analysts.

The broker cut its FY26-FY28 profit forecasts by -3% to -1%, reflecting weaker Penfolds sales and reduced buyback benefits. The target price is lowered to $5.50 from $7.00. Sell rating maintained.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.93 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.61, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Management at Treasury Wine Estates has issued an FY26 update including the withdrawal of earnings (EBITS) guidance for Penfolds and Treasury Americas, reflecting weaker market conditions, notes Macquarie.

China remains a key headwind, observes the broker, with reduced dining out and government alcohol restrictions weighing on sales. September depletions were positive but still below plan, prompting the removal of FY26 and FY27 Penfolds guidance.

Macquarie highlighted further weakness in the US from the distributor transition in California and now expects a -1% decline in Penfolds earnings and a -6.5% fall in group earnings for FY26.

Macquarie lowers its target price to $6.40 from $8.00 and retains a Neutral rating, citing continued softness and weaker growth visibility.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.93 Difference: $0.47
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.61, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Equal-weight (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates has withdrawn its FY26 and FY27 guidance for Penfolds, Treasury Americas, and the group amid weaker trading conditions, explains Morgan Stanley.

Penfolds China depletions remain below plan, observe the analysts, while negotiations with distributor RNDC are ongoing, with around $100m in excess inventory yet to be cleared.

The $200m buyback has also been paused.

Morgan Stanley cuts its FY26 and FY27 earnings (EBITS) forecasts by -8% and -10%, respectively, reflecting weaker China demand and the RNDC transition impact. Near-term uncertainty is anticipated until new management provides a clearer strategy update.

Morgan Stanley lowers its target price to $6.90 from $8.70 and retains an Equal-weight rating. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $5.93 Difference: $0.97
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.61, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TWE as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Morgans downgraded Treasury Wine Estates to Hold from Buy following a disappointing 1Q26 trading update and removal of guidance. The target price has been lowered to $6.35 from $10.10.

Changes in the Chinese government's policy on alcohol consumption have impacted Penfolds depletions, which reflect the underlying consumption trends, while shipments met expectations. FY26 Penfolds depletion targets are unlikely to be achieved.

The Americas luxury portfolio is viewed as performing well outside of California, even with the change in distributor, but depletions were impacted by the change.

The analyst has lowered Treasury's EPS (EBIT) forecasts by -13.7% for FY26 and -16.8% for FY27, with 1H26 flagged to be particularly weak.

Target price is $6.35 Current Price is $5.93 Difference: $0.42
If TWE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.61, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Hold (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates removed earnings guidance for FY26-27, with weakness in Penfolds in the China market and the distribution changeover for its California business highlighted as the reasons, Ord Minnett postures.

The company has also paused its $200m share buyback to relieve pressure on its balance sheet until there is an improvement in the outlook and the markets it operates in.

The analyst lowers its EPS estimates by -9.3% for FY26 and -15.4% for FY27, leading to a reduction in the target price to $8 from $9.50.

The rating remains unchanged at Hold.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $5.93 Difference: $2.07
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.61, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates' decision to remove FY26 guidance with the 1Q26 trading update has prompted UBS to downgrade the stock to Neutral from Buy. Target price cut to $6.50 from $10.

Both FY26 and FY27 guidance have been removed, and the $200m share buyback has been paused, with $30.5m completed.

Revised growth from Treasury stands at 4% for FY26 and 6% for FY27; Penfolds low to mid double-digit growth of 9%/10% for FY26/FY27, respectively, and only slight growth for Americas.

China demand is weaker, resulting from new government guidelines on spending for employees. The US alcohol market is experiencing considerably softer demand, and the California distribution changeover is having a more marked impact.

UBS downgrades its EPS forecasts by -22% for FY26 and -29% for FY27.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.93 Difference: $0.57
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.61, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VAU as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

EBITDA forecast for FY26 lifted by 9% for Vault Minerals and by 5% for FY27.

Buy. Target rises to 84c from 80c.

Target price is $0.84 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.15
If VAU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.77, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WEB as Underweight (5) -

Web Travel's first-half FY26 performance fell short of Morgan Stanley's expectations. The broker notes transaction volume growth remains below the pace required to reach management's $10bn FY30 target.

The broker highlights another decline in take rate, requiring a strong rebound in the second half to meet guidance, while earnings (EBITDA) margins remain below target.

Lower penetration of directly sourced inventory continues to weigh on profitability relative to larger peers, explain the analysts.

The broker also notes uncertainty surrounding convertible notes due in March 2026 could add further earnings risk.

Morgan Stanley's target price is reduced to $4.00 from $4.25. Underweight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.39 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If WEB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.86, suggesting upside of 37.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WGX as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

The broker expects a -5% q/q decline in September quarter production for Westgold Resources as development is prioritised at Bluebird South and feed rates normalise at Beta Hunt.

Cash build of $75m is expected. FY26 EBITDA forecast lifted by 10% but FY27 trimmed by -2%.

Buy maintained for Westgold Resources. Target rises to $6.60 from $6.00.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.42 Difference: $1.18
If WGX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

FY26 EBITDA forecast for Whitehaven Coal lifted by 10%, while FY27 is left unchanged.

Buy maintained for Whitehaven Coal. Target unchanged at $7.90.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $6.44 Difference: $1.46
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.44, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

Zip Co's September app data show continued strength, though momentum eased from August levels, observes Citi.

US app downloads rose 19% year-on-year but fell -11% month-on-month, notes the broker, with monthly active users down -9% month-on-month yet up 49% year-on-year.

First quarter results are due on October 20. Citi forecasts US transaction volume growth of 42% for the September quarter and group cash earnings (EBITDA) of $57m, broadly flat quarter-on-quarter due to seasonality.

Hiring activity has increased, highlight the analysts, with job listings up 57% year-on-year, which could drive higher operating costs in the second half.

Citi also expects bad debt performance, particularly from Pay in 8, to remain a key focus amid a softer US consumer backdrop.

The broker retains a Buy rating and $4.50 target.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.64 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If ZIP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources