Australian Broker Call

Deutsche Bank rates BLD as Buy (1) -

Boral has issued a pricing notice offering a significantly lower price than is currently charged by its supplier, Wagners Holding ((WGN)). Boral, pursuant to the agreement, is required to purchase a minimum volume of cement on an annual basis at a determined price.

Deutsche Bank notes, in the event the pricing notice complies with the contract, Wagners may elect to reduce the price of cement or suspend supply of cement products for a period of up to six months. Buy rating and $7.20 target.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $2.31
If BLD meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.90, suggesting upside of 20.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BLD as Accumulate (2) -

Boral has received a superior offer price from another cement supplier in south-east Queensland, issuing a notice to Wagners Holding ((WGN)) relating to its take-or-pay contract.

The contract allows for Wagners to match the offer or suspend supply for up to six months. Wagners has elected to suspend supply. At this point Ord Minnett believes this is of little benefit to Boral, although the development could have a significant impact on Wagners.

However, it has negative implications for the south-east Queensland construction materials market. Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating and $6 target.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $1.11
If BLD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.90, suggesting upside of 20.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CTP as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage on Central Petroleum with an Add rating and $0.21 target. The company offers leverage to the east coast gas market and an attractive earnings profile, in the broker's view.

The company is now selling the majority of its expanded volumes into the east coast market. The broker's earnings forecasts focus on existing 2P reserves and further growth is expected from upsizing existing reserves or from new prospects.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.08
If CTP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates FLT as Hold (3) -

International travel volumes remain relatively robust, with January up 4.2%. Strong growth of around 8% in December appears to be an anomaly.

Deutsche Bank estimates the 12 months average of around 5% is broadly indicative of the underlying trend. The broker maintains a Hold rating and $46 target.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $44.58 Difference: $1.42
If FLT meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.43, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FNP as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts have updated with the view that a deal between Freedom Foods Group and Lion is now unlikely, removing a potential overhang from its share price. The analysts remain of the view this company's outlook is all about margin expansion medium-term.

Margin expansion should kick in this half (H2 FY19), and accelerate into FY20, on Citi's projections. On this basis, the analysts find the share price looks heavily undervalued in comparison with global high-growth fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) peers. Buy. Target $6.55.

Target price is $6.55 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: $1.89
If FNP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.02, suggesting upside of 29.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HLS as Accumulate (2) -

Pre-election health promises from the federal government have continued, with a broadening of the indexation of diagnostic imaging services. Ord Minnett observes this comes on top of the $375m boost to fund 50 new magnetic resonance imaging licenses.

The broker suspects further announcements on GP funding in coming weeks. The company is expected to be a beneficiary of such promises, given reliance on Medicare.

Accumulate rating maintained. Target rises to $3.35 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: $0.6
If HLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MX1 as Add (1) -

First half results were lower than expected, reflecting a slower ramp up of the Nano and higher R&D expenditure. The company is exploring other opportunities for its technology including military and security applications.

Morgans revises down sales forecasts to reflect lower Nano unit sales. Target is lowered to $0.50 from $0.58. Add rating maintained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.23
If MX1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates NCM as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank has reviewed the Red Chris mine in Canada following Newcrest's acquisition of equity. The broker values the asset at US$1.4bn based on analysis of drilled data, capital costs at Cadia East, throughput and recovery assumptions.

The drill hole data suggest grades could lift significantly at depths appropriate for a caving operation. There remains upside potential if the company can capture higher grades and lift throughput, and extend mine life through exploration. Hold rating and $25 target.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $25.21 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.69, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates NUF as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank expects the interim result to be slightly disappointing, given extended dry conditions in Australia, recent dry weather in Latin America and scheduled plant shutdowns in Europe. Cash flow is also expected to be disappointing.

Full year earnings guidance is expected to be lowered from the current $500-530m. The broker maintains a Buy rating as the stock is trading at a -10% discount to valuation. Target is $6.00.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.59 Difference: $0.41
If NUF meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.43, suggesting upside of 32.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NUF as Buy (1) -

Nufarm will report its first half result on March 20. The business is expected to be affected by the continuation of dry conditions. Ahead of the result, Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating and $7.25 target.

Warmer than average autumn conditions are considered likely for most of Australia, which is negative for the company's outlook because of reduced plantings and limited demand for agricultural chemicals.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $5.59 Difference: $1.66
If NUF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.43, suggesting upside of 32.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NVX as Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Add (1) -

Morgans has introduced a new rating category, Speculative Buy, for companies where there is potential for significant opportunity but that also carry significant risk.

The broker believes the upside potential for Novonix is compelling, but it has not yet sold its anode material or produced in large scale.

There are a number of issues the company will need to overcome in order to realise its potential.

The broker upgrades to Speculative Buy from Add and raises the target to $0.75 from $0.54.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.12
If NVX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RAP as Add (1) -

The company has results from its SMARTCOUGH-C-2 croup results which shows greater accuracy compared with clinicians. The results were positive but the rarity of the condition within the sample requires a larger population in order to achieve statistical significance.

Morgans notes, while disappointing, this is not material to commercialisation efforts. The broker maintains an add rating and $0.19 target.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.1
If RAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses the company is on track to deliver $200m in earnings (EBITA) in FY19. The solid performance is supported by a positive premium rate environment, organic growth and the annualisation of acquisitions.

Macquarie also expects guidance of $220-235m will be set for FY20. The broker maintains an Outperform rating and $3.90 target.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.66
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.27, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SGR as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank notes Star Entertainment has been shortlisted for the Cairns global tourism hub. Proposals are to be lodged by July with a decision to be made late in 2019 or early 2020.

The broker believes such a project will need to involve the current licence holder, Reef Casino JV, as the market is not large enough to sustain two casinos. If successful, Deutsche Bank believes Star Entertainment could include its Asian JV partners and fund the project off balance sheet.

The broker estimates the investment would likely be in the order of $300-400m and the company could reduce its equity contribution to just $30-40m if involving the JV. Buy rating and $5.60 target.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.33 Difference: $1.27
If SGR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SHL as Accumulate (2) -

Pre-election health promises from the federal government have continued, with a broadening of the indexation of diagnostic imaging services. Ord Minnett observes this comes on top of the $375m boost to fund 50 new magnetic resonance imaging licenses.

The broker suspects further announcements on GP funding in coming weeks. The company is expected to obtain a slight benefit from the promises.

Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating and raises the target to $27.60 from $27.40.

Target price is $27.60 Current Price is $24.18 Difference: $3.42
If SHL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.78, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SYD as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

The share price is up over 16% since January, supported by long bond yields, strong passenger growth in January and a positive draft report from the Productivity Commission.

Deutsche Bank expects the stock to underperform, as the airport cycles last year's strong international passenger growth, downgrading to Hold from Buy. Target is reduced to $7.50 from $7.75.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.36 Difference: $0.14
If SYD meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates Z1P as Add (1) -

The company has completed a $43m placement to fund growth initiatives and strengthen its balance sheet. Morgans considers the capital raising opportunistic but believes the strong growth trends warrant accelerated investment.

The broker maintains an Add rating and raises the target to $1.89 from $1.64.

Target price is $1.89 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.09
If Z1P meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources