Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates ALC as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Alcidion Group announced a positive March quarter update, slightly ahead of both the broker’s and consensus expectations.

Revenue, including sold and renewal, rose to $40.2m from $37.1m in the previous year and $30.8m in the December quarter. The analyst attributes the $9.4m increase in contracted revenue to the recognition of an $8m–$9m licence fee from the NCIC contract.

Cash balance was $10.2m with no debt, and management upgraded FY25 earnings (EBITDA) guidance to over $3m, in line with the broker's forecast and above consensus.

Target price unchanged at 11c. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.031
If ALC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMC as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett explains Australian investors have warmed to the merger between Amcor and Berry Global Group, with ASX-listed Chess Depository Interests (CDIs) increasing to 45% from 42% of the share register prior to the deal’s close in November 2024.

The broker believes the upbeat tone is due to the expected increase in EPS from the deal, driven by synergies and Amcor’s ability to maintain its "progressive" dividend policy and reduce debt, aided by Berry’s lower payout ratio.

Management has flagged a compound average growth rate of 9% in earnings (EBITDA) from FY25 to FY28. The analyst adopts a more conservative stance, assuming 5% growth per annum on average over the period.

Hold rated with a $15.25 target price.

Target price is $15.25 Current Price is $14.58 Difference: $0.67
If AMC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.88, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Challenger's tightened FY25 net profit guidance of $450-465m continues to point to 10% growth vs FY24 at the midpoint.

Life sales in 3Q25 was $1.4bn, but the broker highlights this was lower than -$1.6bn in maturities and repayments. The minimum capital ratio for Life rose 0.01x to 1.62x as retained earnings offset dividend and coupon payments.

No changes to FY25 estimates, but the broker lowered FY26 forecasts on lower cash rates and higher credit spreads.

Outperform. Target rises to $7.00 from $6.60.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.88 Difference: $0.12
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.35, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates DRO as Buy, High Risk (1) -

DroneShield delivered record March quarter revenue of $33.5m, up 102% year-on-year, driven by strong hardware demand and a 198% surge in SaaS revenue, observes Shaw and Partners.

Europe emerged as the company’s largest market, supported by the European Union's EUR800bn “ReArm Europe” initiative, notes the broker, and management is progressing plans for a local hub to meet growing demand.

FY25 revenue visibility has increased to $94m, up $40m since February, with committed revenue already exceeding FY24 levels, highlights the analyst.

The broker notes additional upside potential from growing defence budgets and a strengthening sales pipeline across Europe and Asia.

Shaw expects no margin impact from US tariffs, the cost of which the company will pass on to customers.

Shaw and Partners retains a Buy rating and a $1.20 target price.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0
If DRO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IKE as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights the FY25 update from ikeGPS Group revealed revenue growth of 19% to NZ$25.2m, below the broker’s estimate, despite around NZ$56m in contracts for the period, including approximately NZ$12m in 4Q25.

Seat licences advanced 103% to 8.5k, and management noted an acceleration in subscription revenue growth and exit run rate in the fourth quarter.

Quarterly subscription revenue grew 13.2% to NZ$4.2m, up 12% on 3Q25. Management flagged a 35% increase in exit annual recurring revenue for FY26 which suggests a NZ$5.9m quarterly equivalent run-rate at the end of FY26, the analyst explains.

No change to Speculative Buy rating and 93c target price.

Target price is $0.93 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $0.258
If IKE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates IKE as Buy (1) -

Following ikeGPS Group's 48% y/y rise in annual recurring revenue in FY25 and guidance for 35%-plus growth in FY26, Shaw and Partners is more confident in its forecast for a 37% increase in FY26.

The broker notes gross margin improved in FY25 to 69% from 60% in FY24, and expects this to persist. The company also achieved free cash flow in 2H25, ending the year with a cash balance of NZ$10.2m.

The broker remains of the view the company has the potential to become the industry standard in the US utility market.

Buy, High risk. Target unchanged at $1.10.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $0.428
If IKE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

Relevant to Imdex, March junior financing data was encouraging, notes Citi, but warns the June quarter could be volatile because of the tariff-related macro uncertainty.

The broker highlights the March quarter saw a sequential decline in both total and exploration-linked raisings, and a drop in average raising value. So, a pickup in momentum in the June quarter is key for the broker to feel confident of a meaningful rebound.

Until then, the broker sees a downside risk to the company's FY26 earnings.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $2.85.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.76 Difference: $0.09
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes the sale of Macquarie Group’s North American and European public markets business to Nomura for around $2.8bn in an all-cash transaction.

The transaction will allow Macquarie to focus more on higher-growth alternatives, while also booking a gain of around $500m and releasing circa $1bn in capital.

The focus is expected to remain on higher-growth alternative assets.

Industry View: In-Line. Equal-weight with a $191 target price.

Target price is $191.00 Current Price is $180.83 Difference: $10.17
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $206.31, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MQG as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett observes the sale by Macquarie Group of its Public Investments business in North America and Europe to Nomura for around $2.8bn, which includes assets under management of $285bn. The Australian business will be retained.

Due to the lower margin of the divested business, the broker estimates around $100m in net profit after tax implications, with an estimated gain on sale of $500m.

Macquarie is forecast to have excess capital of $4bn by year end, and management continues to focus on mega-trends such as urbanisation, digitisation, and energy transition, Ord Minnett explains.

Accumulate rating and $210 target unchanged.

Target price is $210.00 Current Price is $180.83 Difference: $29.17
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $206.31, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Resume at Outperform (1) -

After a period of research restriction on Northern Star Resources, Macquarie has resumed coverage with an Outperform rating and target price of $27.

The broker notes the 100% acquisition of De Grey Mining ((DEG)) is nearly complete and considers the deal to be accretive on production, reserves and NAV. Additionally, the broker believes De Grey Mining's key asset Hemi will not only lift the company's growth trajectory but also increase NPV momentum.

Dilution and higher D&A resulted in a -8 to -28% cut to the broker's EPS forecasts for FY25-30, but earnings (EBITDA) forecast is unchanged until FY28, and rising thereafter.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $23.01 Difference: $3.99
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.32, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NXT as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes growing concerns around hyperscalers like Microsoft and Amazon’s AWS slowing data centre contracts, particularly in relation to NextDC.

The analyst explains channel checks suggest Microsoft is focusing on profitable data centres, upgrading older facilities for new chipsets, and shifting OpenAI compute to Oracle.

If NextDC wins additional contracts, the company's value could range between $10–$11 per share, and securing a 100MW contract could add $3 per share, lifting the target price to $14, the broker states. Essentially, the current share price reflects existing contracts and assumes no new wins.

Ord Minnett believes there is demand from non-hyperscale customers, though the next large contract may be delayed until FY26 or later.

Current estimated earnings (EBITDA) are $215m based on current contracts and could rise to $400m without new data centre builds. NextDC’s land and buildings have a historical cost of $5.3bn, with a replacement cost closer to $7bn, the analyst emphasises.

Buy rated with an $18 target price.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $10.48 Difference: $7.52
If NXT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.40, suggesting upside of 76.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PPT as Neutral (3) -

Perpetual's AUM fell -4% in the March quarter to $221.2bn on net outflow of -$8.9bn and currency impact of -$0.9bn, partly offset by $0.7bn from favourable market movement.

Macquarie notes the outflows were mainly in global and US equities and cash, and there was no significant de-risking by clients in the quarter. Moreover, the corporate trust business saw a 1% rise in FUA and wealth management saw $0.9bn in net inflow.

The broker cut FY25 EPS forecast by -3% and FY26 by -17% to account for flows and market volatility.

Neutral. Target cut to $15.44 from $19.74 on lower earnings and lower multiples.

Target price is $15.44 Current Price is $15.00 Difference: $0.44
If PPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.50, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Perenti will finalise operations at MMG's Khoemacau Copper Mine on June 30 end-date as the contract underperformed its expectations.

With margins in Africa usually higher than projects in Australia and North America, the broker expects the company to find better revenue and earnings options from new tenders. The broker has allowed $60m cash flow from the equipment sale to MMG, which is above the company's FY25 free cash flow guidance of over $150m.

Minor revisions to FY25-27 EPS forecasts. Outperform. Target rises to $1.52 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.52 Current Price is $1.33 Difference: $0.19
If PRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley analysts note a Reuters report stating the US government has included the Resolution Copper Project in the Fast-41 category that speeds up environmental approvals. This is being done with the aim of faster domestic production of critical minerals like copper.

Resolution is owned 55% by Rio Tinto and 45% by BHP Group ((BHP)) and has faced numerous challenges since 2013 when the permitting process was initiated. The broker cites a Wood Mackenzie report saying the project has the potential to become the largest mine in North America, supplying 25% of US annual copper needs.

The broker highlights no value has been attributed to the project, but the removal of obstacles to development would lift attributable copper to the company and will be well-received by the market.

Equal-weight. Target $115.50.

Target price is $115.50 Current Price is $111.62 Difference: $3.88
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $121.75, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates S32 as Add (1) -

Morgans describes the March quarter as solid for South32, with production broadly meeting expectations aside from a downgrade at Cannington due to its late-life volatility.

Production at Worsley alumina and aluminium assets slightly exceeded the broker's estimates, while Sierra Gorda copper and South African manganese were in line. Cannington missed estimates by -10%, prompting FY25 guidance to be revised lower.

Net cash rose to US$252m, with further improvement expected due to modest capex, highlighting to the analysts balance sheet strength.

The broker retains a constructive view on copper and aluminium, and sees South32 as a value opportunity given recent share price weakness.

Morgans retains an Add rating and a $4.30 target price.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $2.61 Difference: $1.69
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 45.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley details that Transurban Group’s domestic defensive qualities, such as free cash flow generation, offer appeal for investors.

The analyst highlights the NSW toll road renegotiation remains ongoing, and March quarter average daily traffic rose 1.4%, missing consensus by -2% due to the impacts of Cyclone Alfred and construction works in Sydney.

The broker sees opportunities in Auckland, NZ, and estimates Transurban’s dividend yield can grow at 5% per annum.

Target price is $13.66, up from $13.33. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $13.66 Current Price is $13.75 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.60, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWR as Outperform (1) -

Tower upgraded its FY25 underlying net profit guidance once again to NZ$70-80m from NZ$60-70m (in February) after a better-than-expected business-as-usual claims trend due to the absence of weather-related events

Gross written premium guidance was, however, revised lower to mid-single digit from 7-12% as higher growth in home products is offset by a decline in average premiums. Expense ratio was lifted due to a combination of lower premiums and higher growth-related investments.

Macquarie observes operational red flags are beginning to merge, which could pose a challenge for the medium-term growth outlook. The broker lifted FY25 EPS forecast by 9.7% but cut FY26 by -3%.

Outperform. Target lifted to NZ$1.58 from NZ$1.55.

Current Price is $1.29. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Citi’s first take on Woodside Energy’s 1Q25 report was broadly in line with consensus but below the broker’s expectations, with Pluto production down -4%, partially offset by stronger output from US operations.

Revenue missed expectations by -7% on softer realised prices but was 19% above consensus. The analyst notes Scarborough remains on schedule for first gas in 2H26, though capex is expected to exceed earnings estimates by US$0.5bn.

Management retained FY25 guidance.

Neutral maintained with a $21.50 target price.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $19.71 Difference: $1.79
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.43, suggesting upside of 24.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources