Australian Broker Call
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August 12, 2020
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CGF - | Challenger | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
JHX - | James Hardie | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
SYD - | Sydney Airport | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett | ||
WTC - | Wisetech Global | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
Overnight Price: $18.86
UBS rates A2M as Buy (1) -
UBS expects a2 Milk's FY20 result to beat consensus by circa 4% driven by stronger margins.
The broker estimates revenue growth for infant formula to be 38% in the second half. Revenue growth for cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) is expected to be 72% over the same period, driven by higher wholesale prices and share gains.
The broker highlights the company has entered FY21 with a high CBEC market share. Higher than normal infant formula inventory levels may lead to subdued sales in ANZ in July and August, predicts UBS.
The company will be declaring its FY20 results on August 19.
UBS reaffirms its Buy rating with a target price of NZ$22.
Current Price is $18.86. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $18.07, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 50.02 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 57.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.3, implying annual growth of 15.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ANN ANSELL LIMITED
Commercial Services & Supplies
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Overnight Price: $39.69
UBS rates ANN as Neutral (3) -
UBS forecasts FY20 revenue of US$1,572, up 5% versus last year. The broker highlights the growth in the second half is driven by the healthcare division with the industrial division down -6%.
Ansell is likely to experience growth in both divisions over the short to medium term driven by demand for healthcare coupled with a rebound in manufacturing, expects UBS. The broker has upgraded its FY21 earnings forecast by 4%.
UBS maintains its Neutral rating with the target price increasing to $38.75 from $36.75.
Target price is $38.75 Current Price is $39.69 Difference: minus $0.94 (current price is over target).
If ANN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.69, suggesting downside of -14.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 74.29 cents and EPS of 173.85 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 84.70 cents and EPS of 193.17 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 178.6, implying annual growth of 4.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 78.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $12.35
Citi rates BSL as Neutral (3) -
Citi reduces FY21 and FY22 earnings (EBIT) forecasts by -27% and -10% respectively, noting the Australasian construction outlook remains weak.
The broker expects first half FY21 earnings will be a cyclical low for the company. Neutral rating is maintained. The target price is $13.
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $12.35 Difference: $0.65
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.53, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 65.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.2, implying annual growth of -63.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.9, implying annual growth of -27.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $74.70
Ord Minnett rates CBA as Hold (3) -
Upon first glance, it appears CBA's FY20 performance missed Ord Minnett's forecast by some -5%. The broker blames a number of one-offs.
Capital is seen as stronger-than-expected, but the Net Interest Margin (NIM) is much weaker. In addition, the broker observes several items point to a deterioration in asset quality.
The dividend was a tad below Ord Minnett's anticipated $1.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $65.30 Current Price is $74.70 Difference: minus $9.4 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $66.51, suggesting downside of -10.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 285.00 cents and EPS of 409.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 421.7, implying annual growth of -13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 274.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 300.00 cents and EPS of 405.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 418.4, implying annual growth of -0.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 287.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CBA as Neutral (3) -
CommBank's FY20 result missed consensus by some -7%, comment UBS analysts in an initial response to today's release. But then the 98c declared dividend would have surprised on the upside, even though it was merely in-line with UBS's forecast.
The analysts suggest there was no incentive for CBA to deliver a strong result in the present context. They see lots of moving parts and one-offs but also that underlying business momentum remains "solid".
Nevertheless, UBS senses that consensus forecasts will likely move lower post this result. The broker also finds the circa 2.5% yield is not particularly attractive, given the risk profile.
Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $74.70 Difference: minus $9.7 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $66.51, suggesting downside of -10.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 295.00 cents and EPS of 431.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 421.7, implying annual growth of -13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 274.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 230.00 cents and EPS of 335.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 418.4, implying annual growth of -0.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 287.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CGF CHALLENGER LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $4.01
Citi rates CGF as Neutral (3) -
Citi makes small downgrades following the FY20 results. The broker expects FY21 normalised net profit will be well inside the $390-440m guidance range.
The broker notes the company's capital is well above its guidance range and this is before the favourable impact of paying no second half dividend. Moreover, it sees it as unlikely significant levels of capital will be needed for short-term growth.
Hence, Challenger appears intent on using the balance sheet to protect against volatile markets while taking a cautious approach to investment.
Citi retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $4.00 from $5.25.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 37.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 25.50 cents and EPS of 43.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.3, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CGF as Neutral (3) -
FY20 results slightly missed Credit Suisse estimates. FY21 guidance is for normalised pre-tax profit of $390-440m with the assumption that up to $3bn of cash and liquid assets will be reinvested in higher returning assets and deployed over the year.
Credit Suisse lowers estimates for FY21 by -6%, expecting lower book growth. While there is medium-term value emerging at current levels, the broker points out the market is not rewarding such value for financial stocks in the current climate.
Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $4.25 from $5.50.
Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: $0.24
If CGF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.3, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CGF as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
The FY21 normalised profit (NPBT) of $390m-$440m for Challenger missed consensus guidance of the broking community by around -7%, says Macquarie.
The analyst notes Life book growth of 2.1% was achieved, with a 2H20 new business tenor of around 10.7 years, versus 9.1 years in 1H20.
No final dividend was declared.
Macquarie likes the long-term growth thematic and considers valuation has become attractive.
Following recent stock price pressures, Macquarie upgrades to an Outperform rating from Neutral. The price target is increased to $4.50 from $4.40.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: $0.49
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 20.50 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 24.50 cents and EPS of 46.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.3, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Equal-weight (3) -
FY22 pre-tax profit missed Morgan Stanley's estimates. The broker considers the results highlight the difficulties of delivering annuity sales and balancing the investment yield with capital needs.
The broker believes there is an opportunity in retirement income products but a skew to fund manager products and/or those light on capital is needed.
The company has retained a dividend policy of 45-50% of normalised profit and intends to pay a dividend in FY21, subject to market conditions and capital priorities.
The broker downgrades FY21 estimates by -10-15% to reflect the company's guidance and the ongoing challenges of extracting a margin in a world of lower rates and economic uncertainty.
Equal-weight. Target is reduced to $4.25 from $5.40. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: $0.24
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.50 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.3, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates CGF as Hold (3) -
Challenger posted FY20 results around -4% below the consensus of the broking community, according to Morgans.
The broker highlights a still difficult annuity sales environment and continuing Return on Equity (ROE) pressures existing into FY21.
The broker contends value exists, but remains cautious given the difficult operating environment (sales headwinds and low bond yields) and the potential for more near-term investment market volatility.
Morgans downgrades FY21 profit (normalised NPAT) estimates by -6% on softer company guidance commentary.
The Hold rating is maintained. The target price is decreased to $4.58 from $5.35
Target price is $4.58 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: $0.57
If CGF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.60 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 25.50 cents and EPS of 43.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.3, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CGF as Hold (3) -
FY20 net profit was at the lower end of guidance but ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts. Pressure remains on earnings, given FY21 guidance and so the broker expects the company to remain conservative from a capital allocation perspective.
Ord Minnett suspects, in the long run, the business model may force the company to sell assets when they are cheap. Hold rating retained. Target is reduced to $4.00 from $4.56.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.3, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $13.67
Citi rates CPU as Sell (5) -
FY20 results were in line with guidance and Citi was pleased with the better-than-expected margin income albeit this was offset by one-off management actions in the second half.
The company is guiding to FY21 earnings per share to be down -11%. The broker suspects this may disappoint the market and the stock is likely to trade lower. Sell rating and $12 target retained.
Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $13.67 Difference: minus $1.67 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.94, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 47.70 cents and EPS of 77.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 51.86 cents and EPS of 92.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.6, implying annual growth of 17.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Overweight (1) -
FY20 results met guidance and Morgan Stanley's forecasts. Margin income was better than expected and the tax rate was below Morgan Stanley's estimates.
The FY20 dividend was 12% ahead of Morgan Stanley's forecasts. FY21 guidance is for earnings per share of $0.50, down -11%.
The broker retains an Overweight rating and $16 target. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $13.67 Difference: $2.33
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.94, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 81.87 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 87.37 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.6, implying annual growth of 17.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CQE CHARTER HALL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REIT
Childcare
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Overnight Price: $2.47
Ord Minnett rates CQE as Accumulate (2) -
FY20 earnings were in line with Ord Minnett's estimates. FY21 guidance is for a distribution of $0.15 per unit. The company is actively looking for opportunities and has highlighted government and tertiary education as areas with potential.
The company has agreed to -$5.4m in total rent relief across its portfolio, equivalent to -8% of FY20 net property income.
No further relief in response to the stage 4 restrictions in Melbourne is envisaged, given increased government support being provided to Victorian child care operators. Accumulate retained. Target is raised to $2.90 from $2.80.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $0.43
If CQE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.83
Credit Suisse rates CRN as Outperform (1) -
First half numbers were largely pre-released but reveal a tough environment. While not doubting the leverage inherent in the business, Credit Suisse observes coal markets are putting stress on the balance sheet.
Earnings are adjusted to reflect the results and with some sign that steel markets outside of China are slowly turning around, the broker suspects metallurgical coal prices may be close to a bottom.
Outperform rating and $1.90 target maintained.
Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $1.07
If CRN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 129% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.71, suggesting upside of 106.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 20.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -17.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.59 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates CRN as Add (1) -
There were no surprises for Morgans in Coronado Global Resources' 1H20 financials.
Uncertainty still reigns in the physical market for met coal, but some recent signals have been more encouraging for the broker.
The biggest problem is the company's stretched debt position and the analyst speculates on potential ways it may be addressed by the company. This includes debt and/or innovative funding (potentially vendor finance) to build a bridge over lower prices.
Add rating retained. Target is reduced to $1.63 from $1.70.
Target price is $1.63 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.8
If CRN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.71, suggesting upside of 106.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.83 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -17.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1.49 cents and EPS of 7.43 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CRN as Buy (1) -
Coronado Global Resources’ first-half operating performance was in-line with UBS’s expectations. The company suffered a net loss of -US$60m which was below the broker’s estimate.
The coal miner did not declare any dividend. The broker expects costs to decline in the second-half for Curragh.
A rising ex-China demand coupled with reduced production/exports from major producers prompts the broker to expect higher coking coal prices over the next 3-6 months.
UBS retains its Buy rating with the target price decreasing to $1.60 from $1.70.
Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.77
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.71, suggesting upside of 106.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 16.35 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -17.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.43 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CSL CSL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $280.98
Macquarie rates CSL as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie reviews near-term Kcentra forecasts following competitor results.
Commentary from Portola/Alexion has highlighted lower demand for Andexxa/Ondexxya due to covid-19, which prompts the broker to moderate growth for Kcentra.
The broker maintains a Neutral rating and lowers the price target to $293.5 from $300.5.
Target price is $293.50 Current Price is $280.98 Difference: $12.52
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $301.74, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 303.27 cents and EPS of 674.15 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 649.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 286.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.1. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 338.78 cents and EPS of 734.18 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 699.2, implying annual growth of 7.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 307.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FBU FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $3.26
Morgan Stanley rates FBU as Equal-weight (3) -
The company has issued guidance for FY20 results which are due on August 19. Earnings (EBIT) of NZ$310m are expected, broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations.
Additional construction provisions of -NZ$150m include issues with legacy projects that account for 50%, a buffer on legacy projects (30%) and issues on previously completed projects (20%).
A further increase in the construction provision is disappointing for Morgan Stanley, while the NZ$300m in cost reductions that were announced are considered a positive offset, although it remains difficult to assess how much will fall to the bottom line.
Equal-weight rating. Target is NZ$4.10. Industry view is Cautious.
Current Price is $3.26. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 15.23 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.29 cents and EPS of 17.49 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of 28.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 91.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 29.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates FBU as Neutral (3) -
Fletcher Building’s FY20 result is expected to include an after-tax loss of -$196m, according to the company's pre-released figures. This includes one-offs like higher construction provisions and other significant items.
Excluding the one-off items, the broker expects FY20 operating income will be slightly more than UBS’s forecast as well as the consensus.
The company has not provided any guidance for FY21 but expects lower market activity in New Zealand and Australia. This is considered pessimistic by UBS, although the broker notes the company is ahead of UBS’s forecast on the cost savings front for FY21.
The company will be announcing its FY20 results on August 19. UBS reaffirms its Neutral rating with a target price of NZ$3.55.
Current Price is $3.26. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.16 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.35 cents and EPS of 21.28 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of 28.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 91.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 29.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FCL FINEOS CORPORATION HOLDINGS PLC
Cloud services
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Overnight Price: $4.57
Macquarie rates FCL as No Rating (-1) -
Fineos Corp announced the acquisition of Limelight Health, funded by a circa $90m capital raise and $26.1m of scrip.
The company revealed a FY20 revenue beat, states Macquarie. The company also released initial FY21 guidance of greater than 20% growth, with more than 30% subscription fee growth.
The analyst notes the acquisition is complementary, with the product suite augmenting the company's existing capabilities and accelerating product development.
The broker upgrades estimated total revenue by around 7% for FY21, FY22 and FY23. This does not incorporate the impact of the acquisition or capital raise and equity issue, due to research restrictions, whereby Macquarie cannot provide an action and recommendation on the company at present.
Current Price is $4.57. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.81 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.99 cents. |
This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates FCL as Buy (1) -
FY20 results were ahead of guidance and forecasts. The broker suspects FY21 guidance is framed conservatively. The company will pay around 5.2x FY20 revenue for Limelight Health, a US insurance software business.
While the deal offers plenty of strategic benefits, Ord Minnett notes there is also a complementary product to the company's Admin Suite which builds on an existing product gap. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $5.00 from $4.75.
Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $0.43
If FCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.48 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.14 cents. |
This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.03
Credit Suisse rates GPT as Outperform (1) -
First half results were below Credit Suisse estimates because of a material decline in retail earnings. The broker lowers 2020-22 estimates and reduces the target to $4.29 from $4.56.
When times are "good" many investors accuse the company of being conservative and Credit Suisse hopes the same logic applies to the current environment.
The broker considers the portfolio fundamentally undervalued by the market. Outperform retained.
Target price is $4.29 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: $0.26
If GPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.46, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.2, implying annual growth of -42.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of 19.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.17
Citi rates IPL as Buy (1) -
Citi is becoming more positive on the outlook for urea because of strong demand and higher prices. This will provide positive impetus to Incitec Pivot's earnings.
The fertiliser division is expected to experience the benefit of more favourable Australian weather and cropping conditions while there has been strong North American farm applications in the autumn because of an early harvest. Buy rating and $2.40 target maintained.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.23
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.54, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 1.40 cents and EPS of 11.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 22.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.60 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.4, implying annual growth of 15.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
JHX JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $32.22
Citi rates JHX as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
Citi further assesses that James Hardie is priced for perfection and downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target is $33.10.
Underlying top-line momentum continues to accelerate and the earnings margin in North America in the second quarter is strong, comments the broker, helped by lower pulp/freight costs and better operating leverage.
Target price is $33.10 Current Price is $32.22 Difference: $0.88
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.88, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 117.09 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 78.75 cents and EPS of 133.88 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.2, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates JHX as Outperform (1) -
Maiden FY21 guidance for net profit of US$330-390m is stronger than expected. The company has confirmed that interiors business in Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America improved in July.
Credit Suisse maintains its estimates for an FY21 earnings margin of 27.4% and increases the long-term margin forecast to 26%. The quarterly results confirmed its view that the margins are sustainable.
Outperform retained. Target rises to $34.90 from $30.90.
Target price is $34.90 Current Price is $32.22 Difference: $2.68
If JHX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.88, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 131.84 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 72.81 cents and EPS of 145.16 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.2, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -
James Hardie reported 1QFY21 results, with profit (NPAT) marginally below expectations. However, FY21 guidance from the company was a positive surprise for Macquarie.
The outlook for 2QFY21 volume growth and margin outcomes were also solid, notes the analyst.
Macquarie continues to like the investment thesis and maintains the Outperform rating and target price of $36.
Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $32.22 Difference: $3.78
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.88, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 134.77 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 93.61 cents and EPS of 155.13 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.2, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -
First quarter results were strong with North American margins at 10-year highs, comment the analysts. Morgan Stanley was even more impressed with the outlook as guidance implies primary demand growth of more than 10%.
The broker believes the business is now poised to benefit from an improving US housing market and reiterates an Overweight rating. Target is raised to $35.90 from $32.00. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $35.90 Current Price is $32.22 Difference: $3.68
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.88, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 129.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 71.32 cents and EPS of 147.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.2, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates JHX as Buy (1) -
First quarter results were broadly in line with Ord Minnett's expectations. The broker considers profit guidance of US$330-390m for FY21 is conservative as the performance across North America and the Asia-Pacific region has been very strong.
The broker believes the company tops the sector with substantial opportunity to take market share. Target is raised to $34 from $30. Buy retained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $32.22 Difference: $1.78
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.88, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 129.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 71.32 cents and EPS of 150.07 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.2, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates JHX as Buy (1) -
James Hardie Industries’ first-quarter result was in-line with UBS’s expectations. Primary demand growth was a key feature, notes the broker.
The company saw volume growth in the US offsetting severe weakness in the domestic housing market, notes the broker. The building products group has guided to second-quarter US exteriors volume growth of 7-11% while the broker expects growth to be 8%.
The outlook for long-term primary demand growth continues to rise, according to the broker, helped by new products.
UBS retains its Buy rating with the target price increasing to $35.40 from $34.
Target price is $35.40 Current Price is $32.22 Difference: $3.18
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.88, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 129.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 142.65 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.2, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $20.87
UBS rates KGN as Neutral (3) -
Kogan’s July update, with sales up more than 110% and about 126k customers added, is considered positive by UBS.
The result prompts UBS to materially upgrade its estimates by 44-45% to reflect increasing online growth and more customers.
The broker thinks Kogan is well placed to grow regardless of covid-19. However, UBS considers the upside from this has already been priced in. Driven by higher expected gross sales, earnings estimates for FY21-22 have been increased by 44-45%.
UBS maintains its Neutral rating with the target price increasing to $21 from $12.10.
Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $20.87 Difference: $0.13
If KGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $61.68
Ord Minnett rates MFG as Hold (3) -
A lot to digest from today's FY20 release, but upon initial glance, Ord Minnett believes the financial metrics are mostly in-line while FY21 guidance implies an upgrade to the tune of 4-5%, all else remaining equal.
Magellan Financial announced a series of new products and the broker points out management has an excellent track record in this regard.
Target price is $60.44 Current Price is $61.68 Difference: minus $1.24 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $57.50, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 223.70 cents and EPS of 246.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.5, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 217.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 233.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 240.2, implying annual growth of -0.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 215.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.20
Credit Suisse rates NCZ as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse raises zinc price forecasts out to 2023 and expects global zinc consumption to fall -5.7% in 2020 then rebound in 2021.
A surplus is considered likely in the coming years as, while demand will rebound, mine supply will grow more strongly.
The company's FY21 production guidance is for 140-160,000t with a C1 cost of US$0.65-0.75/lb and capital expenditure of -$6-8m.
The broker adjusts the target to $0.45 from $0.50 to account for revising pricing and operating forecasts. Outperform retained.
Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.25
If NCZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 125% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.43 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1.81 cents and EPS of 3.24 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $11.70
UBS rates NXT as Buy (1) -
UBS considers NextDC’s structural thematics to be intact and expects an accelerated shift to the cloud to play out over the next few years.
The broker highlights businesses are upgrading their disaster recovery plans and shifting internal data centres to colocation data centres. This prompts the broker to expect upside from stronger uptake of contracted hyper-scale data centres.
UBS views the stock as a core long term holding and reaffirms its Buy rating with the target price increasing to $14.15 from $10.70.
Target price is $14.15 Current Price is $11.70 Difference: $2.45
If NXT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.34, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5770.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.47
Morgans rates ONT as Add (1) -
1300 Smiles delivered a solid FY20 result, according to Morgans. A weak March to May was followed by record monthly revenue and profit in June, notes the broker.
FY20 profit (NPAT) was $7.1m and a final dividend of 12.5 cents was declared.
The company reports an unprecedented flow of both returning and new customers. The broker believes this is likely due to patients reprioritising health and a potential inflow from struggling smaller practices.
Morgans notes the company's capacity to respond and bounce back following recent interruptions, due to its network, scale and balance sheet capacity.
The Add rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $6.99 from 6.93.
Target price is $6.99 Current Price is $6.47 Difference: $0.52
If ONT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.36
Macquarie rates ORA as Neutral (3) -
Orora will be announcing its results on August 20.
Macquarie forecasts a net profit of $165m in FY20, down by -24% over last year.
With North America forming 19% of Orora's earnings, Macquarie expects second wave concerns in the US to cloud the company's earnings outlook.
Coming to Orora's Australasian beverage demand, the broker notes demand has tapered off after strong initial consumption numbers in March and early April,.
Post the sale of its fibre business, the company has indicated it wants to pursue growth opportunities. Earnings growth forecasts reduced for FY21-22.
Macquarie retains its Neutral rating with the target price decreasing to $2.60 from $3.05.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.24
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.69, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 51.10 cents and EPS of 17.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 2.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 21.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.30 cents and EPS of 14.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.7, implying annual growth of 7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
OTW OVER THE WIRE HOLDINGS LIMITED
Cloud services
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Overnight Price: $4.08
Morgans rates OTW as Hold (3) -
Over The Wire Holdings has acquired the Australian and New Zealand voice businesses of J2 Global Corp for $36m. The business provides 13, 1300 and 1800 inbound call services. The mostly debt funded deal is strategically and financially accretive, according to Morgans.
The acquisition is funded from cash reserves and debt. The analyst estimates the company will end the financial year with minimal debt and will have ample room to fund the purchase, which is expected to complete on August 31.
The broker awaits the company's result on August 20, but upgrades cash EPS forecasts by around 25% to reflect the acquisition.
The Hold rating is maintained. Target is increased to $4.33 from $3.65.
Target price is $4.33 Current Price is $4.08 Difference: $0.25
If OTW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.80 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.30 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.78
Morgan Stanley rates RKN as Equal-weight (3) -
First half results were ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates. The broker considers the trading performance resilient with cash conversion firm.
The merger with Zebraworks is considered a catalyst for earnings and risk mitigation. Equal-weight rating and In-Line sector view retained. Target is $0.76.
Target price is $0.76 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If RKN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 7.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 7.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SAR SARACEN MINERAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
Gold & Silver
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Overnight Price: $5.66
Citi rates SAR as Neutral (3) -
Citi updates to account for guidance and resources at Thunderbox and Carosue Dam. Production in the June quarter was in line with expectations and the two mines are expected to deliver 380-400,000 ounces in 2021.
Reserves have lifted 12% using a gold price of $1750/oz. The mill expansion at Thunderbox is expected to take nameplate capacity to 3.5mtpa in FY22.
Neutral rating retained. Target is reduced to $6.10 from $6.20.
Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.66 Difference: $0.44
If SAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.57, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 19.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.4, implying annual growth of 89.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 28.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of 43.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SCP SHOPPING CENTRES AUSTRALASIA PROPERTY GROUP
REITs
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Overnight Price: $2.30
Citi rates SCP as Sell (5) -
FY20 results were below expectations. Citi recognises that management has taken a conservative approach to uncollected rent.
Revisions to estimates reflect the lower rental income for the medium term as well as reduced income from management fees and the stake in Charter Hall Retail ((CQR)).
The broker retains a Sell rating, suspecting income is likely to be resilient compared with peers albeit contained in a bearish retail outlook. Target is reduced to $1.72 from $1.87.
Target price is $1.72 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If SCP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 59.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.70 cents and EPS of 13.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates SCP as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse was impressed with the FY22 result given the challenging market conditions. Free funds from operations per security were down -10.3% and broadly in line with expectations.
The immediate concerns surround assets in Victoria with the company indicating the current lockdown will result in more waivers and deferrals.
Still, the broker expects the share price will hold up well given the large exposure to non-discretionary retail tenants. Neutral retained. Target is raised to $2.31 from $2.21.
Target price is $2.31 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0.01
If SCP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 59.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SCP as Neutral (3) -
Shopping Centres Australasia's FY20 funds from operations (FFO) were below Macquarie's estimates but the shortfall in cash was on expected lines.
The REIT did not provide any FY21 FFO guidance which was expected but did announce a distribution equal to about 100% of adjusted funds from operations.
About -$7.8m of the cash shortfall was recognised as non-cash covid-19 related rent. The broker thinks there is upside risk to cash collection beyond this amount.
FY21 FFO is expected to be 14.5c with distribution at 12.6c, both slightly lower year on year. Some headwinds to watch out for in FY21 include lockdown measures in Victoria and the recent equity raising.
The low gearing levels provide acquisition opportunities for the REIT, believes the broker.
Macquarie maintains its Neutral rating with the target price reducing to $2.30 from $2.36.
Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0
If SCP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.60 cents and EPS of 13.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 59.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.60 cents and EPS of 15.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SCP as Overweight (1) -
FY20 results were in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates, with free funds from operations of 14.65c. Rent collection was 77% in March-June and reflects the tenant profile.
However, leasing conditions have deteriorated significantly, the broker notes, and spreads on new leases were down -15%.
The broker maintains an Overweight rating, finding the stock attractive on a relative sense while cash flows appear robust. Target is $2.70. In-Line industry view.
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0.4
If SCP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 13.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 59.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 13.80 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates SCP as Hold (3) -
There was a negative impact of -$20.5m in FY20 from the pandemic because of additional cleaning, waived rent and provisions. Estimates are revised down slightly for FY21 and up slightly for FY22-23.
Ord Minnett believes management is doing a good job and the portfolio remains defensive. The mainstay is the 75% weighting to neighbourhood centres. The broker maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $2.30 from $2.20.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0
If SCP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 59.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates SCP as Neutral (3) -
Shopping Centres Australasia’s FY20 funds from operation stands at 14.65c, in-line with UBS's estimate. A distribution of 12.55c reflects a payout ratio of 99%.
The result includes the impact of rent waived due to covid-19 and extra costs, notes UBS, while highlighting supermarket supported retail assets remain resilient.
The broker expects the REIT’s consistent strategy, conservative treatment of covid-19 items, exposure to resilient income and an under-geared balance sheet to help it deal with the pandemic.
For FY21, the broker expects a net impact of -$15m from covid-19 led disruptions which is -40% less than FY20.
UBS reiterates its Neutral rating with the target price increasing to $2.42 from $2.27.
Target price is $2.42 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0.12
If SCP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.30 cents and EPS of 15.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 59.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.10 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.69
Citi rates SIG as Buy (1) -
Sigma Healthcare has announced the sale and lease-back of two distribution centres for $172m. The after-tax proceeds will be the same as capital gains and be offset by existing capital losses.
Buy rating retained. Target rises to $0.80 from $0.75. The broker expects Sigma will continue to experience elevated revenue and margin expansion in FY21 because of the Chemist Warehouse contract and demand stemming from the pandemic.
Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.11
If SIG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.70, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in January.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.8, implying annual growth of 22.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SYD SYDNEY AIRPORT HOLDINGS LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $5.34
Citi rates SYD as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
The company has announced a $2bn equity issue. This did not surprise Citi, having flagged the risk of a capital raising for some time.
The broker also believes potential credit rating pressure could have played a part in management's decision, as ratings agencies put the company on negative watch.
First half results, meanwhile, missed estimates at the EBITDA line, affected by abatements for retail property tenants.
Citi upgrades to Neutral from Sell, believing the capital raising could relieve much of the pressure on credit metrics and lead to a reversal of near-term underperformance.
However, the uncertainties prevent the broker from becoming more positive. Target is reduced to $5.61 from $5.87.
Target price is $5.61 Current Price is $5.34 Difference: $0.27
If SYD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.97, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 359.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates SYD as Underperform (5) -
First half revenue, adjusted, was around $420m and down -47% albeit ahead of Credit Suisse forecasts. Given the pandemic, the second quarter performance is considered a reasonable guide for the second half.
The board does not expect to declare a dividend in 2020. A $2bn fully underwritten renounceable entitlement offer was announced, at $4.56 a share.
Proceeds will be used to cover debt maturities and strengthen the balance sheet. Because of a slow recovery in the aviation industry, Credit Suisse forecasts Sydney Airport will not recover to 2019 operating earnings levels until 2024.
Underperform maintained along with a $4.50 target.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $5.34 Difference: minus $0.84 (current price is over target).
If SYD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.97, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.39 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.33 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 359.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SYD as Outperform (1) -
Sydney Airport Holdings noted a loss of -$54m in its first half result. This is less than anticipated by Macquarie at -$88m.
The airport will be raising $2bn via a rights issue at a -15% discount. The broker notes this will help Sydney Airport deal with debt concerns. It will also ensure the airport can manage a prolonged covid-19 led shutdown without resorting to additional debt.
The broker believes upside for investors includes longer-term aero agreements, upside from the Jetbase redevelopment and a stronger snap-back of international demand.
Macquarie reiterates its Outperform rating with the target price decreasing to $6.06 from $6.57.
Target price is $6.06 Current Price is $5.34 Difference: $0.72
If SYD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.97, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 359.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SYD as Equal-weight (3) -
First half earnings were better than Morgan Stanley feared. A lift in earnings estimates partially offsets the increased share count. Sydney Airport is raising $2bn in equity primarily for liquidity purposes during the period of Covid-19 uncertainty.
Morgan Stanley believes this removes the downside risk associated with credit stress scenarios. The historical capital structure settings are expected to resume by FY23.
Longer-term the stock is considered to have intrinsic value linked to a recovery from the pandemic but on a 12-month view Morgan Stanley favours regulated utilities.
Equal-weight. Target is reduced to $6.39 from $6.67. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $6.39 Current Price is $5.34 Difference: $1.05
If SYD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.97, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 359.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates SYD as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -
Ord Minnett upgrades to Hold from Lighten and reduces the target to $5.00 from $5.10. Sydney Airport reported a first half net loss of -$53m, much weaker than expected.
Ord Minnett believes the business is a high-quality infrastructure asset that will recover albeit facing severe headwinds to revenue while travel restrictions are in place.
The capital raising should ensure debt covenants are not breached, but the broker awaits a turnaround in passenger numbers and earnings before becoming more positive.
Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.34 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If SYD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.97, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 359.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $13.93
Ord Minnett rates TCL as Accumulate (2) -
In initial response to today's FY20 release, Ord Minnett observes Transurban's performance missed expectations by some -4%, but unlike Sydney Airport there should be no need to prop up the balance sheet through a fresh capital raising.
The key risk, say the analysts, remains Stage 4 lockdowns in Melbourne and the Citylink recovery profile, which is 30% of Transurban/s network on top of potential for increased restrictions elsewhere.
Guidance for dividend in the year ahead seems to be in-line with the broker's forecast.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $13.93 Difference: $2.07
If TCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.73, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of 71.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 121.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of 43.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 84.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $20.69
Citi rates WTC as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
Citi lowers FY20-22 net profit forecasts by -2-27% and downgrades to Sell from Neutral. Target is reduced to $18.40 from $22.60.
While there is plenty to like about the stock, given a strong balance sheet and the market-leading Cargowise One platform, the broker envisages downside risk to consensus forecasts because of a combination of macroeconomic conditions and a slowing in acquisitions.
While the change in M&A strategy is positive over the medium term, Citi considers this negative for revenue growth in the short term.
Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $20.69 Difference: minus $2.29 (current price is over target).
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $21.52, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.40 cents and EPS of 20.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of 15.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 93.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.80 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.7, implying annual growth of 30.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 71.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
ANN | Ansell | $39.19 | UBS | 38.75 | 36.75 | 5.44% |
CGF | Challenger | $3.99 | Citi | 4.00 | 5.25 | -23.81% |
Credit Suisse | 4.25 | 5.50 | -22.73% | |||
Macquarie | 4.50 | 4.40 | 2.27% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 4.25 | 5.40 | -21.30% | |||
Morgans | 4.58 | 5.35 | -14.39% | |||
Ord Minnett | 4.00 | 4.56 | -12.28% | |||
CQE | Charter Hall Soc Infra Reit | $2.50 | Ord Minnett | 2.90 | 2.80 | 3.57% |
CRN | Coronado Global Resources | $0.83 | Morgans | 1.63 | 1.70 | -4.12% |
UBS | 1.60 | 1.70 | -5.88% | |||
CSL | CSL | $279.86 | Macquarie | 293.50 | 300.50 | -2.33% |
FBU | Fletcher Building | $3.14 | Morgan Stanley | N/A | 3.87 | -100.00% |
FCL | Fineos Corp | $4.68 | Macquarie | N/A | 5.12 | -100.00% |
Ord Minnett | 5.00 | 4.75 | 5.26% | |||
GPT | GPT Group | $4.04 | Credit Suisse | 4.29 | 4.56 | -5.92% |
JHX | James Hardie | $31.40 | Citi | 33.10 | 32.90 | 0.61% |
Credit Suisse | 34.90 | 30.90 | 12.94% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 35.90 | 32.00 | 12.19% | |||
Ord Minnett | 34.00 | 30.00 | 13.33% | |||
UBS | 35.40 | 34.00 | 4.12% | |||
KGN | Kogan.Com | $20.45 | UBS | 21.00 | 12.10 | 73.55% |
NCZ | New Century Resources | $0.19 | Credit Suisse | 0.45 | 0.50 | -10.00% |
NXT | Nextdc | $11.54 | UBS | 14.15 | 10.70 | 32.24% |
ONT | 1300 Smiles | $6.45 | Morgans | 6.99 | 6.93 | 0.87% |
ORA | Orora | $2.36 | Macquarie | 2.60 | 3.05 | -14.75% |
OTW | Over The Wire Holdings Ltd | $4.06 | Morgans | 4.33 | 3.65 | 18.63% |
SAR | Saracen Mineral | $5.39 | Citi | 6.10 | 6.20 | -1.61% |
SCP | Shopping Centres Aus | $2.30 | Citi | 1.72 | 1.87 | -8.02% |
Credit Suisse | 2.31 | 2.21 | 4.52% | |||
Macquarie | 2.30 | 2.36 | -2.54% | |||
Ord Minnett | 2.30 | 2.20 | 4.55% | |||
UBS | 2.42 | 2.27 | 6.61% | |||
SIG | Sigma Healthcare | $0.69 | Citi | 0.80 | 0.75 | 6.67% |
SYD | Sydney Airport | $5.39 | Citi | 5.61 | 5.87 | -4.43% |
Macquarie | 6.06 | 6.57 | -7.76% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 6.39 | 6.67 | -4.20% | |||
Ord Minnett | 5.00 | 5.10 | -1.96% | |||
WTC | Wisetech Global | $19.08 | Citi | 18.40 | 36.30 | -49.31% |
Summaries
A2M | a2 Milk Co | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $18.86 |
ANN | Ansell | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $39.69 |
BSL | Bluescope Steel | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $12.35 |
CBA | Commbank | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $74.70 |
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $74.70 | ||
CGF | Challenger | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $4.01 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.01 | ||
Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.01 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.01 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $4.01 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.01 | ||
CPU | Computershare | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $13.67 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $13.67 | ||
CQE | Charter Hall Soc Infra Reit | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.47 |
CRN | Coronado Global Resources | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.83 |
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.83 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $0.83 | ||
CSL | CSL | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $280.98 |
FBU | Fletcher Building | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.26 |
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $3.26 | ||
FCL | Fineos Corp | No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.57 |
Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.57 | ||
GPT | GPT Group | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.03 |
IPL | Incitec Pivot | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.17 |
JHX | James Hardie | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $32.22 |
Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $32.22 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $32.22 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $32.22 | ||
Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $32.22 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $32.22 | ||
KGN | Kogan.Com | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $20.87 |
MFG | Magellan Financial Group | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $61.68 |
NCZ | New Century Resources | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.20 |
NXT | Nextdc | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $11.70 |
ONT | 1300 Smiles | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $6.47 |
ORA | Orora | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.36 |
OTW | Over The Wire Holdings Ltd | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $4.08 |
RKN | Reckon | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $0.78 |
SAR | Saracen Mineral | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $5.66 |
SCP | Shopping Centres Aus | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $2.30 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.30 | ||
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.30 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.30 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.30 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.30 | ||
SIG | Sigma Healthcare | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $0.69 |
SYD | Sydney Airport | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $5.34 |
Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.34 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.34 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.34 | ||
Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.34 | ||
TCL | Transurban Group | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $13.93 |
WTC | Wisetech Global | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $20.69 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 20 |
2. Accumulate | 2 |
3. Hold | 26 |
5. Sell | 4 |
Wednesday 12 August 2020
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
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