Australian Broker Call
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December 07, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
Last Updated: 11:21 AM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| TGR - | TASSAL GROUP | Downgrade to Lighten from Buy | Ord Minnett |
| TPM - | TPG TELECOM | Upgrade to Hold from Reduce | Morgans |
Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -
Citi analysts have kept their $8.85 price target and reiterated their Buy recommendation following news that Lion Nathan and a2 Milk have reached a settlement and withdrawn their respective legal cases against each other.
It is Citi's view that the out-of-court settlement removes a key risk and overhang for a2 Milk as the broker believes it had more to lose than Lion Nathan.
The Buy rating is supported by ongoing belief consensus forecasts will continue to move higher throughout FY18.
Target price is $8.85 Current Price is $7.28 Difference: $1.57
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.85, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.04 cents and EPS of 21.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.52 cents and EPS of 30.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.2, implying annual growth of 33.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ASG as Buy (1) -
UBS reduces FY18 growth expectations for new car volumes, and sales & margin forecasts, to account for poor brand performance to date and an expected increase in discounting.
The broker believes lower medium-term growth is largely factored into the share price and, given the recent weakness, a Buy rating is retained. Target is reduced to $2.70 from $3.00.
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.79
If ASG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates HUO as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett incorporates reduced export prices, following a -32% decline in the international salmon price since May, although limited impact on the Australian wholesale market is expected in the short term.
The broker envisages an opportunity for Huon Aquaculture as its valuation has de-rated much more strongly than Tassal ((TGR)) since the international price started declining.
Ord Minnett trims the target to $5.81 from $5.83 and maintains a Buy rating.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $5.81 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: $1.45
If HUO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates IPL as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank considers the loss of the BHP ((BHP)) ammonium nitrate contract from November 2019 to be a minor negative. The broker considers this a marginal contract and the negative impact is long dated and finite.
Incitec Pivot will cease supplying ammonium nitrate to BHP's iron ore division from November 28, 2019. The company estimates this will have no financial impact in FY18 and FY19 and will affect FY20 and FY21 net profit by -$10m and -$25m, respectively.
Deutsche Bank maintains a Buy rating and $4.40 target.
Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.5
If IPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.4, implying annual growth of 13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.4, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates IPL as Outperform (1) -
The company's WA ammonium nitrate contract with BHP ((BHP)) iron ore is set to expire in November 2019 with the loss currently estimated to have a one-off impact on net profit of approximately -$10m in FY20 and -$25m in FY21.
The company estimates the impacts may be able to be mitigated to some extent by other commercial arrangements. Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $4.10 from $4.22.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.2
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.60 cents and EPS of 21.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.4, implying annual growth of 13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 23.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.4, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Equal-weight (3) -
The company has lost the contract to supply BHP's ((BHP)) ammonium nitrate volumes in Western Australia. A one-off impact to net profit of -$10m is expected in FY20 and -$25m in FY21.
While the company may strike commercial arrangements to mitigate this, the maximum impact implies downside of -2% and -5% in FY20 and FY21 respectively to Morgan Stanley's forecasts. The broker assumes the volumes have been awarded to Orica ((ORI)), which has a stated strategy to compete in this market.
The broker retains an Equal-weight rating and Cautious industry view. The target is $3.60.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.4, implying annual growth of 13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.4, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates MFG as Outperform (1) -
Funds under management of $58.6bn were up 4.5% in November driven by positive market movements. This was ahead of Credit Suisse forecasts.
Strong flows were driven almost entirely by institutional inflows. Rating is Outperform. Target is raised to $29.00 from $28.25.
Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $27.03 Difference: $1.97
If MFG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.58, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 105.00 cents and EPS of 142.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.1, implying annual growth of 1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 99.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 126.00 cents and EPS of 172.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.1, implying annual growth of 24.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 114.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MFG as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie notes inflows of $717m drove an increase of 4.5% in total funds under management in November.
The performance of the infrastructure fund was a highlight. Neutral rating. Target is raised to $29.08 from $28.41.
Target price is $29.08 Current Price is $27.03 Difference: $2.05
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.58, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 94.90 cents and EPS of 131.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.1, implying annual growth of 1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 99.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 105.20 cents and EPS of 144.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.1, implying annual growth of 24.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 114.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MHJ as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie suspects that weak trading in the US and Emma & Roe will result in a downgrade in FY18 forecasts. The broker suspects Michael Hill will exit the US early next year.
Nevertheless, the broker envisages value in the core business that supports an Outperform rating. The closure of the US business and removal of operating losses would be positive, and Macquarie still believes Emma & Roe is a viable growth option.
Outperform and target lowered to $1.54 from $1.64.
Target price is $1.54 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.34
If MHJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.51, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.30 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.10 cents and EPS of 9.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.3, implying annual growth of 18.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ORI as Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank considers the likelihood that Orica was the successful bidder for BHP's ammonium nitrate contract from November 2019 is a positive for the company as it will assist in fully loading the recently-commissioned Burrup plant.
Orica is also bidding on the initiating systems and services contract with BHP Iron Ore as well as the Roy Hill ammonium nitrate contract.
Hold retained. Target is raised to $19.40 from $18.85.
Target price is $19.40 Current Price is $17.85 Difference: $1.55
If ORI meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.15, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 104.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 101.8, implying annual growth of -0.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 119.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 114.5, implying annual growth of 12.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -
Citi calculates the Worsley refinery in Western Australia represents around $1.04 per share of valuation at a long-term alumina price of US $350/t.
Bauxite and alumina production is expected to be flat in FY19 versus FY18 and the next stage of performance improvements is centred on asset availability.
Pressures from higher raw material costs and inflation are expected to drive a 4% increase in costs in FY18 to US$211/t, although Citi notes costs are already running ahead of this over the year to date and assumes US$220/t in its forecasts.
Worsley is also working on diversifying the energy base to include gas and biomass, having been mostly coal.
Buy retained. Target is $3.75.
Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.55
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.25, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.09 cents and EPS of 34.15 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.16 cents and EPS of 27.09 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.5, implying annual growth of -7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates S32 as Neutral (3) -
To date Credit Suisse has been impressed by the cost reductions at Worsley alumina site.
However, the easy aspects have been addressed and the doubling of caustic prices in 2017 is expected to impede financial performance, although there are near-term opportunities around gas re-contracting in 2018.
Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating. Target is $3.10.
Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.25, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.75 cents and EPS of 19.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.60 cents and EPS of 16.64 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.5, implying annual growth of -7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates S32 as Sell (5) -
The recent investor briefing signalled slightly better cost guidance and metallurgical coal production from Illawarra versus what Deutsche Bank was expecting.
The broker also notes cost pressures are mounting. FY18 estimates for earnings per share are raised by 1%. A Sell rating is maintained on valuation. Target is $2.80.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.25, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.39 cents and EPS of 24.86 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.70 cents and EPS of 26.17 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.5, implying annual growth of -7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates S32 as Neutral (3) -
The company has provided greater detail surrounding its Illawarra coal operations, guiding to FY18 saleable production of 4.5mt. UBS suspects the market was anticipating downgrades that were more severe than delivered.
UBS notes, despite the cost pressures, higher commodity prices have generally led to increasing margins across the company's operations.
Neutral and $3.25 target retained.
Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.05
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.25, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.39 cents and EPS of 27.48 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.11 cents and EPS of 27.53 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.5, implying annual growth of -7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SCG as Underweight (5) -
Potential asset sales could address high gearing with limited impact on free funds and consequently pose a risk to an Underweight rating, Morgan Stanley acknowledges.
The broker's recent discussions suggest that most investors are comfortable with the company's elevated gearing. Morgan Stanley remains concerned about rising capital expenditure and softening operating metrics.
Target is $3.90. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $4.28 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If SCG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.46, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 21.70 cents and EPS of 23.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.0, implying annual growth of 11.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.60 cents and EPS of 24.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.1, implying annual growth of -3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates SGP as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank expects housing starts nationally to decline -9% and -6% in FY18 and FY19 respectively. The broker continues to believe multi-family units will be disproportionately affected by the downturn.
Given the company's large exposure to single-family dwellings Stockland is expected to be more resilient in a downturn.
Deutsche Bank retains a Buy rating and $4.95 target.
Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: $0.21
If SGP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.79, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.8, implying annual growth of -32.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of 3.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SGP as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie remains comfortable about the company's ability to keep growing earnings at a rate greater than 5% per annum for the foreseeable future.
Retail property, where the bulk of the company's capital is invested, is expected to remain challenging. Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and $4.60 target.
Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.79, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.50 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.8, implying annual growth of -32.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.60 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of 3.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates TGR as Downgrade to Lighten from Buy (4) -
Ord Minnett downgrades its recommendation to Lighten from Buy and lowers a target of $3.43 from $5.00.
The broker incorporates reduced export prices, following a -32% decline in the international salmon price since May, although limited impact on the Australian wholesale market is expected in the short term.
Ord Minnett finds the cost reduction outlook less compelling for Tassal and forecasts margin declines year-on-year.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $3.43 Current Price is $3.74 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If TGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.31, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of -15.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.3, implying annual growth of 8.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates TPM as Upgrade to Hold from Reduce (3) -
Morgans upgrades to Hold from Reduce, suspecting that the NBN will fail financially sooner than originally anticipated, and this will be positive for TPG Telecom.
The broker re-builds its model to better include the earnings shift in mobile and also increases the peer multiple applied to valuation. Morgans believes delays to the roll out of NBN should be positive for the company, so envisages this creates upside risks to guidance.
The company hosted its AGM and provided little news, but reiterated that FY18 guidance is tracking well. Directors are disappointed about margin headwinds from the NBN but are confident their strategies will create value for shareholders in the longer term.
Target is raised to $5.95 from $4.30.
Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $6.27 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If TPM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.74, suggesting downside of -8.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.7, implying annual growth of -17.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of -31.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| A2M | THE A2 MILK CO | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $7.28 |
| ASG | AUTOSPORTS GROUP | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $1.91 |
| HUO | HUON AQUACULTURE | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.36 |
| IPL | INCITEC PIVOT | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.90 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.90 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.90 | ||
| MFG | MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $27.03 |
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $27.03 | ||
| MHJ | MICHAEL HILL | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.20 |
| ORI | ORICA | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $17.85 |
| S32 | SOUTH32 | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $3.20 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.20 | ||
| Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.20 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $3.20 | ||
| SCG | SCENTRE GROUP | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.28 |
| SGP | STOCKLAND | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $4.74 |
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.74 | ||
| TGR | TASSAL GROUP | Downgrade to Lighten from Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.74 |
| TPM | TPG TELECOM | Upgrade to Hold from Reduce - Morgans | Overnight Price $6.27 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 9 |
| 3. Hold | 7 |
| 4. Reduce | 1 |
| 5. Sell | 2 |
Thursday 07 December 2017
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