Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AJM as Underperform (5) -

The ramp up of the Altura operation is slower than Macquarie expected and a dwindling cash supply is likely to mean more funding will be required in the short term. The broker now anticipates a capital raising before the end of the year.

 Underperform rating reiterated. Target is reduced to $0.19 from $0.22.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If AJM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANN as Buy (1) -

The stock is one of the few with an un-geared balance sheet on the ASX 100 which has potential to re-gear because of the stability of cash flow. Citi believes the market is undervaluing this option.

While in the short term there is downside risk to consensus estimates, the broker envisages the operating environment is supportive of revenue growth. Buy rating and $28.50 target maintained.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $23.31 Difference: $5.19
If ANN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.35, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMW as Underperform (5) -

The company is increasing its investment in CEREIT during the rights issue and portfolio acquisition. Gearing moves to 39.4% and remains above peers, Macquarie observes.

With FY19 earnings flat and FY20 still declining on the broker's forecasts an Underperform rating is maintained. Target is $1.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If CMW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.05, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates CSL as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank observes strong demand in the third quarter, with both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share ahead of expectations.

Strong growth occurred in immunology and HAE franchises with improved revenue growth in haemophilia. Hold retained. Target is $207.

Target price is $207.00 Current Price is $192.18 Difference: $14.82
If CSL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $215.33, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSR as Neutral (3) -

First half results met expectations but signalled the domestic housing cycle is past its peak. Citi believes further downside to the share price is now limited as the business is on track to meet FY19 consensus estimates.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating and $3.60 target while earnings estimates for FY20-21 are reduced by -4-5%.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: $0.26
If CSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CSR as Neutral (3) -

First half results were below Credit Suisse forecasts. The broker notes, unfortunately, Viridian, which is likely to be sold, was the only division to outperform. Aluminium earnings were -25% below forecasts because of costs.

Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $3.30 from $5.40. The broker decreases aluminium earnings forecast by -30-60% for FY19-21.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSR as Outperform (1) -

First half results were slightly below Macquarie's expectations. The broker believes market conditions are softening.

While acknowledging the risks in the housing cycle, which are most acute in the high-density multi-residential market, the broker considers CSR's earnings profile should be more resilient than currently expected.

FY19 and FY20 estimates are lowered by -8.9% and -9.6% respectively, mainly because of downgrades to aluminium and property earnings. Target is reduced to $4.40 from $5.75. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: $1.06
If CSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSR as Equal-weight (3) -

First half results were in line with expectations. While FY19 is in line, Morgan Stanley expects, subsequently, a declining Australian housing cycle will coincide with costs pressures for the aluminium industry.

Despite the share price decline since the FY18 results, the outlook still appears challenging to the broker. While backing the stock to outperform, the difficult cycle suggests to the broker it will still be hard.

 Equal-weight maintained. Target is reduced to $3.75 from $4.75. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: $0.41
If CSR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSR as Hold (3) -

First half net profit was short of Ord Minnett's forecasts. The broker was mainly disappointed by the margin across both aluminium and building products.

While there is fundamental valuation support for the stock, the broker believes it will struggle to outperform materially over the next year in the face of weakening residential construction trends. Hold rating maintained. Target is lowered to $3.70 from $4.00.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: $0.36
If CSR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CTD as Neutral (3) -

The valuation is broadly in line with the historical premium to the market, Macquarie notes, and the stock appears fairly valued.

The broker finds no major issues after the report by VGI, although the perception in the near-term has been affected.

The broker believes the company has adequately responded to all the issues raised. Neutral rating maintained. Target is $24.50.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $20.32 Difference: $4.18
If CTD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.46, suggesting upside of 38.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CTD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects the de-rating of the stock to linger over FY19. Most of the focus is on second half cash flows versus fixed operating expenditure. The broker's key issue is with communication, specifically revenue recognition, the footprint and patents.

Nevertheless these issues are not considered deal breakers, and an Overweight rating is maintained. Morgan Stanley observes recent concerns are not related to customers and the company has generated significant cash since its IPO.

Target is reduced to $27 from $35. In-Line industry view maintained.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $20.32 Difference: $6.68
If CTD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.46, suggesting upside of 38.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CWN as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse calculates that over 80% of VIP players in Australia are sourced from junkets and this accounts for around 20% of the company's revenue and around 12% of gross profit.

The broker now expects a decline of -9% in FY19 VIP revenue, as a lengthening of the junket collection cycle means junkets have less working capital from which to provide credit to VIP players. Nevertheless, the impact on earnings from a slowdown could be fairly subdued.

 Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $12.45 from $13.10.

Target price is $12.45 Current Price is $12.00 Difference: $0.45
If CWN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.15, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse believes the reaction in the share price was excessive after the interim results and the end markets are in better shape now than current sentiment suggests. Offtake negotiations for zircon highlight customer demand in 2019 has exceeded allocations in 2018.

Mining has also recommenced at Sierra Rutile. The broker maintains an Outperform rating and $12 target.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $8.27 Difference: $3.73
If ILU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.22, suggesting upside of 33.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHG as Outperform (1) -

The September quarter performance disappointed Macquarie, given the weaker performance metrics and outflows of -$4.3bn.

Recognising the stock is unlikely to re-rate on a relative basis to listed peers until momentum improves, the broker suggests the current yield, 6%, the accretion from share buybacks and market-link growth are still enough to maintain an Outperform rating.

Target is reduced to $43.50 from $48.00.

Target price is $43.50 Current Price is $33.21 Difference: $10.29
If JHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.21, suggesting upside of 27.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as No Rating (-1) -

First quarter production was mixed, DSO shipments were lower than Macquarie expected. Development remains on track at both Wodgina and Mount Marion. The final DSO product is expected to be shipped from Wodgina in the current quarter.

Macquarie is currently on research restrictions and cannot advise a rating or target.

Current Price is $15.45. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $18.17, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett notes the global lithium sector has shown signs of life following a price increase for battery and industrial grade in China's spot market.
Despite the continued focus on spot prices, which the broker deems irrelevant, all other electric vehicle link data remain positive.

Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Hold, given share price weakness and a view that the risk/reward ratio is now skewed to the upside. Target is steady at $18.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $15.45 Difference: $2.55
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.17, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has made a strong start to FY19, Citi observes, with first half earnings up 5%. The broker considers the business blessed, noting management has upgraded guidance to expectations of 10% growth which excludes the Quadrant sale proceeds.

Citi maintains a Neutral rating, noting the current return on equity is above the long-run sustainable return, and at a significant premium to peers. Target is $125.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $122.42 Difference: $2.58
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.69, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MQG as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse increases FY19 estimates by 15% following the first half result. The early upgrade to guidance signals to the broker that Macquarie Group is confident that further benefits will come from the completion of the Quadrant sale.

While there was some compositional weakness in the earnings, the broker believes the results should be positively received. Outperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $135 from $115.

Target price is $135.00 Current Price is $122.42 Difference: $12.58
If MQG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.69, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates MQG as Hold (3) -

Hold rating and $115 price target retained while the analysts observe the interim result was supported by a lower tax rate while upgraded guidance appears to be ahead of market consensus.

Deutsche Bank notes market-facing divisions had strong performances. The Commodities & Global Markets business saw an 85% increase in profit contribution (prior to corporate allocations). The analysts point out this performance was supported by broad strength across the commodities, FICC and ECM platforms.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $122.42 Difference: minus $7.42 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $127.69, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes Macquarie is in an upgrade cycle amid a favourable operating environment and unrealised gains across several businesses.

New guidance for FY19 suggests earnings will be up 10% and the broker notes guidance is typically conservative. Morgan Stanley upgrades estimates by around 3.5% and is looking for 14% growth.

Guidance also excludes the sale of Quadrant, the broker points out, and this is assumed to be completed in the first half of FY20.

Overweight. Industry view is In-Line and the target is raised to $133 from $130.

Target price is $133.00 Current Price is $122.42 Difference: $10.58
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.69, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MQG as Add (1) -

Macquarie's result beat consensus by 3% and the group is guiding to 13-14% profit growth in FY19, inclusive of the Quadrant Energy sale, which is 5% above consensus, the broker notes. Capital markets were the outperformer, with annuity-style businesses a little softer.

The broker thus sees the beat as low quality, particularly given a big fall in tax rate. The group's excess capital position fell sharply on growth initiatives, which would rule out a buyback. The broker nevertheless increases forecasts and its target to $131.80 from $130.70. Add retained.

Target price is $131.80 Current Price is $122.42 Difference: $9.38
If MQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.69, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MQG as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Net profit in the first half was ahead of Ord Minnett forecasts. The upgrade to guidance has come more quickly than usual, which the broker suggests reflects confidence in the outlook, as it does not yet include the Quadrant Energy sale.

Strength appears set to continue for the near term and the broker raises FY19-21 profit forecasts by 7-9%. Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target elevated to $132 from $117.

Target price is $132.00 Current Price is $122.42 Difference: $9.58
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.69, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MYO as Neutral (3) -

The company has granted due diligence after KKR increased its offer to $3.77 a share from $3.70. Credit Suisse observes the offer is pitched at a fairly undemanding multiple.

The broker also considers a competing bid unlikely, although the company may yet be able to extract a slightly higher bid from KKR. Neutral rating maintained. Target is raised to $3.77 from $3.70.

Target price is $3.77 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $0.23
If MYO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.29, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MYO as Underweight (5) -

The company has confirmed access has been granted to KKR following an increased offer of $3.77 a share (was $3.70). The proposal remains subject to due diligence and financing arrangements.

Morgan Stanley believes the upcoming investor briefing on November 15 will be an opportunity for MYOB to showcase its investments to date and highlight the progression of the turnaround.

Underweight rating. Price target is $2.80. Industry View is Attractive.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If MYO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.29, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Sell (5) -

Citi observes the stock enjoyed a relief rally after delivering on second half expectations amid a recovery in cash conversion. FY18 results were in line with expectations, although regionally it was mixed.

The broker suggests improving explosives volumes are likely to remain supportive, although price pressures continue while Burrup remains an uncertainty

 FY19 guidance implies downgrades to consensus forecasts and the broker believes the stock is overvalued. Citi maintains a Sell rating and reduces the target to $16.00 from $16.50.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $17.72 Difference: minus $1.72 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.56, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ORI as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Credit Suisse is confused as to whether the FY18 result is merely about optics from a business that has been under pressure. The broker cites several reasons to be cautious because of the recent history and operating issues at Burrup.

The upside case is created by a tightening of supply/demand in the Australia Pacific region. While not 100% convinced, Credit Suisse still suspects profits will be carried higher over the medium term and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $19.08 from $17.60.

Target price is $19.08 Current Price is $17.72 Difference: $1.36
If ORI meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.56, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates ORI as Hold (3) -

FY18 results were boosted by profits on asset sales of $17m, which Deutsche Bank notes would have otherwise rendered the result below the market forecasts. Cash flow was also enhanced by lower tax.

The broker notes the Burrup plant has been further delayed because of leakage in the absorption tower. Latin America and the Minova business remain a drag on earnings.

The broker maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $16.70 from $17.35.

Target price is $16.70 Current Price is $17.72 Difference: minus $1.02 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.56, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

FY18 results beat Macquarie's estimates at the headline. The broker notes second half manufacturing improved as did ammonium nitrate pricing. The stock also rallied, reflecting low expectations.

However, Macquarie suggests the valuation is full and Burrup remains problematic, with further issues identified.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $18.06 from $18.70.

Target price is $18.06 Current Price is $17.72 Difference: $0.34
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.56, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORI as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

FY18 results were ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates. Australia Pacific and Latin America stood out. EMEA disappointed. The broker considers the guidance vague albeit consistent with forecasts.

Permanent repairs are expected to make the Burrup ammonium nitrate plant fully available for use in the first half of FY20. These issues of reliability cloud the medium-term outlook for the broker.

Rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target is reduced to $17.90 from $18.90. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $17.90 Current Price is $17.72 Difference: $0.18
If ORI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.56, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORI as Hold (3) -

Orica posted a weak FY18 result as expected but the positive response reflected a recovery trend in the second half which management sees as continuing into FY19, underpinned by increased demand and manufacturing improvements. Burrup is not expected to reach full utilisation for another year.

The broker sees implied PE multiples for FY19 and FY20 as fair, suggesting the market is already pricing in the ongoing recovery. Hold retained, target rises to $18.06 from $17.25.

Target price is $18.06 Current Price is $17.72 Difference: $0.34
If ORI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.56, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORI as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett expects growth to stem from from improving manufacturing and industry trends, although increased capital expenditure and investments are bringing near-term pressures to bear on margins.

FY18 results were ahead of expectations, albeit down on FY17. The Burrup plant has been delayed until 2020, with 20% utilisation expected in FY19.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $17.15 from $19.00.

Target price is $17.15 Current Price is $17.72 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.56, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RRL as Hold (3) -

Regis Resources' Sep Q gold production came in above the midpoint of the FY19 guidance range run-rate and costs were much lower than guidance. Rosemont underground has been approved.

Given quarterly production was extracted from the reserve base, the broker lowers its valuation, while expecting an upgraded reserve report will be forthcoming. But adjusting for updated gold price and A$ forecasts leads to a target price increase to $4.41 from $4.40. Hold retained.

Target price is $4.41 Current Price is $4.26 Difference: $0.15
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SGR as Neutral (3) -

Solid domestic volumes are offset by more cautious VIP expectations, in Credit Suisse's view. Overall, the broker lowers forecasts by -2.9% for FY19 and -3% for FY20.

The broker now projects a decline in Sydney's VIP turnover of -9.5% and a weaker second half. The broker's Asian gaming analyst has observed slower junket repayment cycles and weak player sentiment, which is constraining cross-border money flow.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $5.15 from $5.60.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: $0.36
If SGR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.94, suggesting upside of 28.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SIQ as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Smartgroup's share price has fallen some -20% since its peak post result in August, Morgans notes. While new car sales have indeed been weak in the Sep Q, the broker expects novated demand has remained resilient, as suggested by peer McMillan Shakespeare ((MMS)).

Consistent demand, combined with a focus on operational efficiencies and further acquisition potential, leads Morgans to consider the stock is now trading at a reasonable valuation. Target falls to $11.65 from $12.62 but rating upgraded to Add from Hold on the gap to share price.

Target price is $11.65 Current Price is $10.19 Difference: $1.46
If SIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.78, suggesting upside of 22.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the sell-off since the FY18 results provides an attractive entry point to a unique growth story. Concerns regarding growth in China are overplayed and the broker suggests Treasury Wine's earnings drivers are under appreciated.

The broker's view across multiple stocks/countries indicates there is no slowdown in China and a healthy 18% compound earnings growth is still envisaged for FY19-21.

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight. $20 target retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $15.77 Difference: $4.23
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.24, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VAH as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett notes speculation the company could once again be the subject of corporate activity. Wesfarmers ((WES)) has been mentioned in dispatches as 'interested' but the broker would be surprised if this were the case.

The broker notes repositioning the airline to capture a greater share of the less volatile and higher yielding corporate market has come at a heavy cost. While the worst may be over, the outlook remains challenging. Lighten rating and $0.20 target maintained.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If VAH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.21, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WBC as Add (1) -

Ahead of today's earnings result the broker has adjusted its forecasts to account for Westpac's confirmation of a $281m charge taken for RC remediation and costs along with cash received from the Hastings exit. The final RC figure is $46m higher than the prior estimate, hence a net -0.5% cut to FY18 earnings expectations.

Add and $34.50 target retained.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $26.50 Difference: $8
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.39, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WGN as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse observes growth is being pushed back into FY20 because of major delays to projects. The company has disclosed the lack of major project starts will mean first half earnings are weaker and a stronger second half should lead to more balanced earnings over the full year.

Credit Suisse observes Wagners has a growing base of cement/concrete business in south-east Queensland and there are several opportunities that could drive a step change to earnings in coming years. The broker retains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $4.10 from $4.20.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.61
If WGN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WGN as Add (1) -

Project delays and wet weather are a fact of life in the construction game, the broker notes, but they have put a dampener on Wagner's FY19 performance to date and led to the broker cutting earnings forecasts by -15% and -11%% in FY19-20. Confidence has been lost given FY19 was meant to be the big year in infrastructure with FY20 looking uncertain.

The broker has not changed its view on the Wagner business but infra is "frustratingly" lumpy and prone to delays. Target falls to $4.11 from $4.43 but the share price fall means Add retained.

Target price is $4.11 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.62
If WGN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates XRO as Upgrade to Buy from Lighten (1) -

Ord Minnett observes the business has underperformed global peers over the past month, falling to what is now deemed an attractive entry price. First half results are due on November 8 and the broker believes the focus will be on subscriber growth and acquisitions.

Ord Minnett envisages 17% upside to its valuation and upgrades the rating to Buy from Lighten. Target is increased to $48 from $42.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $40.98 Difference: $7.02
If XRO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.37, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources