Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates A1M as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners assesses the recent approval of AIC Mines' mining lease for the Jericho Copper Mine and considers it as a significant milestone, enabling the company to commence surface works and proceed with key development activities.

The broker highlights AIC is expected to increase annual copper production at Eloise to over 20kt, up from the FY24 target of 12.5kt.

AIC Mines is viewed as well positioned to benefit from rising copper prices, with no hedging in place and improved production capabilities.

There have been no updates to the financial forecasts and the analyst is looking to the June quarter results and the September quarter investor day for more details.

The Buy, High Risk and 90c target are retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.32
If A1M meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Following a further analysis of Aristocrat Leisure's 1H results, Citi raises its target to $53 from $51. The Buy rating is maintained.

The broker was positively surprised by management's confidence in the outlook for Americas growth and believes the strategic review of digital assets (which lack synergy with the rest of the portfolio) removes a key question mark overhanging the stock.

A sale of digitial assets has the potential to raise between $1.7-2.3bn and enable further significant capital management, suggest the analysts.

Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $46.28 Difference: $6.72
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.20, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALL as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Following 1H results which beat consensus forecasts, Morgans upgrades its rating for Aristocrat Leisure to Add from Hold and increases the target to $50 from $47.

Profit (NPATA) exceeded forecasts by the broker and consensus by 13% and 10%, respectively, with the digital gaming division, Pixel United, delivering 17% profit growth, 6% ahead of the analyst's forecast.

North America revenue (excluding the LATAM region) achieved 6% growth, 4% ahead of the broker's forecast.

The interim dividend rose by 20% to 36cps and a $350m extension to the ongoing buyback program was announced.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $46.28 Difference: $3.72
If ALL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.20, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Sell (5) -

Following 1H results season for most Australian Banks, Citi remains comfortable with its Sell call across the sector.

Into the medium-term, technology costs are set to drive banks’ operating expense growth back above inflation, at a time when the broker expects core lending and deposit spreads will continue to decline.

Citi's latest order of preference among the majors is Westpac, CommBank, ANZ Bank, then National Australia Bank.

Sell. Target $24.50 for ANZ Bank.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $28.13 Difference: minus $3.63 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.59, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BEN as Underperform (5) -

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank released a trading update ahead of next week's strategy day and Macquarie highlights the net interest margin (NIM) lift of 1.92%, up 9bps from 1H24, outperforming expectations.

This improvement is potentially driven by the roll-off of expensive deposits, notes the broker.

Despite the positive margin news, the Macquarie analyst remains concerned about margin volatility and the need for stability.

The analyst adjusts forecasts with EPS upgraded by 8% for FY24 and 9% for FY25.

Underperform rating retained and the target is raised to $9.25 from $8.50.

Target price is $9.25 Current Price is $10.73 Difference: minus $1.48 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.82, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BEN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights further positive revenue and margin trends evident in a trading update by Bendigo & Adelaide Bank. Cash earnings for the first four months of H2 exceeded the broker's forecast by around 17%.

Margins, revenue and pre-provision profit are tracking ahead of the analysts' 2H forecasts by 9bps, 5% and 13%, respectively.

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank remains Morgan Stanley's preferred smaller bank. The Overweight rating is maintained and the target rises to $11.10 from $10.20. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $10.73 Difference: $0.37
If BEN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.82, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BEN as Sell (5) -

The unexpected trading update from Bendigo & Adelaide Bank for the 10-months to April has surprised to the upside, according to UBS.

Cash earnings are tracking ahead of consensus with year-to-date (YTD) earnings of $464m, suggesting FY24 around $557m, surpassing the broker's estimate of $513m.

Net interest margin (NIM) also showed improvement, with year-to-date NIM of 1.87% versus the consensus of 1.83%.

UBS attributed these upgrades to better earnings on capital and deposits, partially offset by near-term non-interest income reductions.

The analyst's EPS estimates are raised 7.6% and 12.1% for FY24 and FY25, respectively. The target price is lifted to $8.75 from $8. Sell rating unchanged.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $10.73 Difference: minus $1.98 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.82, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Following 1H results season for most Australian Banks, Citi remains comfortable with its Sell call across the sector.

Into the medium-term, technology costs are set to drive banks’ operating expense growth back above inflation, at a time when the broker expects core lending and deposit spreads will continue to decline.

Citi's latest order of preference among the majors is Westpac, CommBank, ANZ Bank, then National Australia Bank.

Sell. Target $82 for CommBank.

Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $121.04 Difference: minus $39.04 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $93.15, suggesting downside of -23.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CMW as Buy (1) -

Following Cromwell Property's sale of Polish retail assets for $465m (in line with the most recent book value), Ord Minnett still assumes an equity raise for the group but on better terms than previously thought. 

The sale is meaningful when compared to Cromwell Property's $1.6bn of outstanding debt, highlights the broker. Look-through gearing of around 42% (down from 50%) is still considered too high.

The Buy rating is maintained and the target rises to 75c from 70c.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.33
If CMW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSR as Equal-weight (3) -

Acknowledging CSR is unlikely to trade to fundamentals, Morgan Stanley raises its target to $9 from $5.60 to align with the indicative offer by Saint-Gobain.

FY24 earnings (EBIT) of $87m beat the broker's forecast by 1% and proved in line with the consensus estimate.

Equal-weight rating and In-Line industry view.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.90 Difference: $0.1
If CSR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DDR as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

After management's comments at 2023 results that January/February were tracking to budget, Morgan Stanley was disappointed by the impact of a more challenging trading environment on Dicker Data's 1Q results.

Consensus was expecting 4-5% 1H revenue growth, note the analysts, yet the company experienced a -9.6% revenue decline. However, strong margins helped cushion the impact on earnings (EBITDA) which were flat compared to the previous corresponding period.

The broker downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight and lowers the target to $10 from $13 on more limited near-term visibility and greater risk to previously expected 2H growth acceleration. Industry View: In-Line.

Morgan Stanley still anticipates a 2H rebound, but is cautious around the extent of downside risks.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.25 Difference: $0.75
If DDR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.80, suggesting upside of 29.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DDR as Neutral (3) -

Dicker Data reported a surprise -10% miss on 1Q24 sales year-on-year according to UBS, well below the analyst and consensus estimates.

On a positive note, costs remain well controlled, with a 1Q24 profit down -5% year-on-year.

Gross margins were slightly higher year-on-year, though further details are needed, notes the broker.

The broker attributes the decline to a strong prior year comparison and subdued market conditions, particularly in the physical security business impacted by the building and construction sector slowdown.

UBS intends to revisit its forecasts and valuation for Dicker Data.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $9.25 Difference: $2.55
If DDR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.80, suggesting upside of 29.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ELD as Neutral (3) -

As part of today's 1H result release, management at Elders reiterated earnings (EBIT) guidance, despite 1H earnings of $38m, which missed the $44m consensus forecast. 

In a first/early assessment, UBS notes the earnings weakness seems to be isolated to the 1Q, before Livestock markets recovered, but suggests a solid step-up from current run-rate levels will be needed to meet management's guidance.

FY24 earnings guidance is for between $120-140m which compares to the consensus $136m forecast, implying to the broker 2H earnings of between $82-102m.

Target $9.00. Neutral.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.21 Difference: $0.79
If ELD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GNC as Hold (3) -

Commenting after GrainCorp's largely pre-reported 1H results, Ord Minnett still expects a more challenging 2H and makes no changes to forecasts. A 14cps interim dividend was maintained and a 10cps special dividend was declared.

Management's through-the-cycle $310m earnings target is too optimistic, suggests the analyst, as Ord Minnett forecasts only $273m in an above-average cropping year.

The Hold rating and $7.40 target are unchanged.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $8.52 Difference: minus $1.12 (current price is over target).
If GNC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.94, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

Citi has reached some conclusions on the lithium market, following talks with industry sources after provision by the Department of Energy (DOE) of more extensive guidance on the statutory definition of “foreign entity of concern” (FEOC).

The broker sees potential for tight ex-China chemicals supply as IRA incentives and battery electric vehicle (BEV)/battery tariffs increase the chance of a bifurcated lithium market.

The updated guidelines now expand the definition of “senior foreign political figures”, which captures Tianqi Lithium. The latter has a 26% effective interest in Greenbushes and 51% effective interest/control in the Kwinana hydroxide plant with IGO. 

The intent of FEOC guidelines is not to exclude IRA qualification for lithium produced in Australia. As a result, Citi believes the rules are  primarily a headwind for IGO’s Kwinana joint venture.

Neutral and $7.60 target retained.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.84 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.21, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPL as Accumulate (2) -

While Incitec Pivot's 1H profit of $164m missed Ord Minnett's $175m forecast due to a worse-than-anticipated fertiliser performance. North America explosives performed better-than-expected.

Management maintained FY24 guidance and the broker's midcycle estimates are unchanged.

An unfranked 4.3cps interim dividend was declared, close to the analyst's forecast. The Accumulate rating is maintained and the broker's target rises to $3.40 from $3.25 mainly due to the time value of money.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $0.47
If IPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

For James Hardie Industries' FY24 result tomorrow, Morgan Stanley forecasts a 4Q North American EBIT margin at or above 32%, which will likely cause a positive share price reaction of between 5-10%.

The company's January 1 price increases of around 4-5% should help offset higher concrete and pulp prices, according to the analyst, while volume from an improved housing outlook is expected to support margins.

Overweight rating and $65 target are retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $54.83 Difference: $10.17
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $61.58, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JHX as Buy (1) -

James Hardie Industries is due to report the FY24 result on May 21 and UBS remains upbeat.

The broker points to the growth in demand versus interest rates against marketing spend as one of the key factors.

Management's guidance for the 1Q25 is also important, where the analyst expects stronger new housing to offset a slower recovery in the repair and remodel (R&R) sector

UBS points to the EBIT margin sensitivity and input costs, with a 31.4% margin expected in 1QFY25 despite macro headwinds and decreases EPS forecasts slightly for by -1.3% and 1.3% for FY25/26 due to altered APAC assumptions and increased net interest costs.

Buy rating and $66.50 target retained.

Target price is $66.50 Current Price is $54.83 Difference: $11.67
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $61.58, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

Proving there is some value placed on Lendlease Group's development/construction capabilities, Morgan Stanley notes 50% the APAC life sciences platform has been sold into a joint venture for $147m. Around $66m in cash will be received.

Management indicated the implied premium above book value is "material". Guidance for a FY24 return on equity (ROE) of 7% is maintained, but is now specifically subject to the Communities sale closing prior to June 30, explain the analysts.

The Equal-weight rating and target price of $7.25 are retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $6.11 Difference: $1.14
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.56, suggesting upside of 40.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTM as Buy (1) -

Citi has reached some conclusions on the lithium market following talks with industry sources after provision by the Department of Energy (DOE) of more extensive guidance on the statutory definition of “foreign entity of concern” (FEOC).

The broker sees potential for tight ex-China chemicals supply as IRA incentives and battery electric vehicle (BEV)/battery tariffs increase the chance of a bifurcated lithium market.

Arcadium Lithium is best positioned to benefit from IRA credits, in Citi's opinion, with its North America chemicals footprint.

The Buy rating and $9.40 target are maintained.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $7.11 Difference: $2.29
If LTM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.43, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MHJ as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades its rating for Michael Hill to Neutral from Buy following a weaker-than-expected trading update on Friday. For the 3Q, the company incurred a pre-AASB 16 EBIT loss of around -$10m compared to the -$6.8m anticipated by the analyst.

While sales in Canada exceeded forecast, the core Michael Hill brand is continuing to see declining sales in Australia due to less discretionary spending, explains the broker. Bevilles (acquired in 2023) is also failing to meet the company’s sales expectations.

Citi is concerned management didn't refer to any recent improvement for trading, and ongoing margin weakness is creating doubt around the effectiveness and sustainability of the brand elevation strategy.

The broker's target falls to 68c from 92c to reflect lower earnings and an additional -10% discount across Citi's valuation to reflect heightened execution risk across the business. 

Target price is $0.68 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.06
If MHJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Sell (5) -

Following 1H results season for most Australian Banks, Citi remains comfortable with its Sell call across the sector.

Into the medium-term, technology costs are set to drive banks’ operating expense growth back above inflation, at a time when the broker expects core lending and deposit spreads will continue to decline.

Citi's latest order of preference among the majors is Westpac, CommBank, ANZ Bank, then National Australia Bank.

Sell. Target $26.50 for National Australia Bank.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $34.53 Difference: minus $8.03 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.41, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NXD as Buy (1) -

While the education space is under pressure, Ord Minnett believes NextEd Group is well placed relative to peers and is taking market share. The company's recent trading update pointed to strength in international vocational student numbers.

Management expects healthcare and hospitality international student numbers “to grow further in the June 2024 intake”. The cost base will be reduced with key initiatives expected to result in annualised savings of -$5m per year.

A Buy rating is maintained and the broker's target is lowered to 75c from 85c. The target is set at a -10% discount to account for the uncertainty of government policy.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.475
If NXD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 173% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OML as Equal-weight (3) -

While Morgan Stanley raises its target for oOh!media to $1.80 from $1.55 the unchanged Equal-weight rating indicates a divided opinion on the stock by the broker following a review of the investment thesis.

On the one hand, the analysts have a positive view of the Out of Home (OOH) industry in Australia, and highlight oOh!media is a well run and structurally sound business.

Positive structural tailwinds from rising OOH audiences and positive advertising rates/pricing dynamics are currently being experienced, but renewal risk remains at elevated levels versus history, observes the broker.

In a meaningful risk for the company, OOH sites are not owned in perpetuity and must be re-tendered for (in the Australian market the tenure is five-to-seven years on average), explains Morgan Stanley.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.19
If OML meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie views the final recommendations from the Aged Care Taskforce's report could significantly increase the earnings upside for Regis Healthcare.

The analyst estimates the full implementation of these recommendations could add approximately $80m to the aged care provider's EBITDA by FY28, potentially raising its valuation by $3.15 per share.

Macquarie revises estimates from FY26 to include an additional $28 per resident per day, increased funding for everyday living services, RAD retention, and enhanced accommodation supplements.

The broker's EPS forecasts are raised for FY26/27/28 by 15%, 40% and 48%, respectively.

Accordingly the price target is raised to $5.50 from $3.85. Outperform rating unchanged.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.08 Difference: $1.42
If REG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades its rating for Rio Tinto to Neutral from Buy due to both general valuation (after a 27% share price rally since August last year) and China macroeconomic concerns. The target price of $137 is maintained.

The broker sees downside risks for iron ore heading into northern summer. Recent property measures by the government are unlikely to engineer a turnaround in domestic steel demand, in the analysts's opinion, while rising steel exports face protectionist headwinds.

Moreover, a period of seasonal weakness for mining shares is looming, and Chinese steel mills have returned to being loss-making, explains Citi.

Target price is $137.00 Current Price is $132.15 Difference: $4.85
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $128.00, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SKC as Buy (1) -

Now that SkyCity Entertainment has been fined -$67m for money laundering, as a civil penalty by the Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre, Ord Minnett feels some of the uncertainty-overhang for the stock will lift.

Separately, the broker notes operating conditions remain challenging due to weaker discretionary spending, particularly for gaming machine play. Tourism to New Zealand is subdued and cost inflation is also weighing, observes the analyst.

The Buy rating and $3.10 target are retained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $1.575
If SKC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 103% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.10, suggesting upside of 98.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SRG as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of SRG Global  with a Buy rating and $1.30 price target.  The analyst highlights the company's strong outlook.

The broker forecasts revenue to compound by a 16.7% average growth rate between FY23-26, underpinned by growth in asset bases, cross-selling opportunities, and increased mining services activity, particularly in iron ore and gold production.

The balance sheet is considered conservative and successful integration of Asset Care, which is expected to enhance recurring revenue, while government and private spending should boost work in non-residential and construction sectors.

Earnings are projected to grow at 6.1% for FY24 and 19.7% for FY25. 

Buy rating and a $1.30 target price.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.435
If SRG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.15, suggesting upside of 29.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TBN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains upbeat on Tamboran Resources ahead of the US IPO to fund the Beetaloo pilot development, with the final investment decision (FID) expected by mid-2024.

The CDIs will continue trading on the ASX, and each CDI around 19c per share will represent 1/200th of a US share, implying a valuation around US$25 per share, highlights Macquarie.

The company recently signed a gas sales agreement with the Northern Territory Government for 40 TJ/d over 9 years, which is expected to support the pilot project

SS-1H well has shown promising results, notes the broker and the company's interest in the project has increased to 47.5%.

Earnings forecasts have been restated in USD ahead of the IPO, with no significant changes. Outperform and 40c target unchanged.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.21
If TBN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLX as Buy (1) -

As previously mooted by management, Telix Pharmaceuticals has filed a form F-1 pursuant to a planned Nasdaq listing in the US. The size of the capital raise/magnitude of dilution is not yet disclosed.

Proceeds will be used for pipeline development/building manufacturing capability, notes UBS. It's felt the equity raise will allow
acceleration of R&D spend and create a liquid market in securities traded in the US.

The broker's forecasts are unchanged. Target $19.30. Buy.

Target price is $19.30 Current Price is $14.80 Difference: $4.5
If TLX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

The removal of China’s tariffs on Australian wine exports could represent an around 9% lift in FY27 earnings, according to Citi's forecast, on the proviso this does not adversely impact Treasury Wine Estates' Other Asia earnings.

The broker lists other medium-term positives including the upcoming Penfolds price increases, increasing luxury wine availability and potential for a divestment/spin off of the underperforming premium business.

The broker's target rises to $12.40 from $11.52 on forecast earnings upgrades and higher peer multiples. The Neutral rating is unchanged as Citi requires evidence of better operating momentum in the core business.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $11.51 Difference: $0.89
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.58, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Sell (5) -

Following 1H results season for most Australian Banks, Citi remains comfortable with its Sell call across the sector.

Into the medium-term, technology costs are set to drive banks’ operating expense growth back above inflation, at a time when the broker expects core lending and deposit spreads will continue to decline.

Citi's latest order of preference among the majors is Westpac, CommBank, ANZ Bank, the National Australia Bank.

Sell. Target $24.75 for Westpac.

Target price is $24.75 Current Price is $26.77 Difference: minus $2.02 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.23, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources