Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Overweight (1) -

Ahead of GDP targets out of China, Morgan Stanley anticipates support for base metals. Outperformance is expected in 2024 as China steps up stimulus during its current macroeconomic challenges.

For copper, the analysts see supply moving further into deficit on a potential eight-month shutdown at the Cobre Panama mine in Panama. Ongoing volatility for aluminium production is expected due to smelter production cuts in China's Yunnan province.

The target for 29Metals falls to 70c from 90c. Morgan Stanley prefers the company in the sector due to improving operations as Capricorn ramps up and because of valuation upside. Overweight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.205
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.78, suggesting upside of 52.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIA as Outperform (1) -

Every seven years, the New Zealand Commerce Commision is required to revisit input methodologies, explains Macquarie, and last week provided a timetable for its review of Auckland International Airport's PSE4 aeronautical pricing.

On December 13, the Commision will release its final determination and all eyes will be on a proposed material change to the airport industry sample set, suggests the broker.

The sample set is one input methodology supporting an airport weighted average cost of capital (WACC) input of 7.19%, explains the analyst.

The NZ$9.56 target and Outperform rating are unchanged.

This summary is based on research released yesterday by Macquarie.

Current Price is $7.65. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $7.85, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Ahead of GDP targets out of China, Morgan Stanley anticipates support for base metals. Outperformance is expected in 2024 as China steps up stimulus during its current macroeconomic challenges.

 The broker expects ongoing volatility for aluminium production due to aluminium smelter production cuts in China's Yunnan province.

The target for Alumina Ltd falls to 90c from $1.40 on Morgan Stanley's lower 4Q 2023 alumina and aluminium price forecasts and a new valuation methodology. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.09
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.01, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Following recent iron ore price strength, Macquarie raises its price forecasts by between 2-6% over the next three years.

The target for BHP Group rises to $50.00 from $47.50. The Outperform-rated company is the broker's preferred iron ore exposure from stocks under coverage.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $47.42 Difference: $2.58
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.58, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Equal-weight (3) -

Higher iron ore price forecasts by Morgan Stanley drive higher EPS estimates for FY24/2024 across the broker's iron ore coverage.

Ahead of GDP targets out of China, the broker anticipates benefits for iron ore fundamentals. It's also felt prices will be supported in the 1H of 2024 (forecast US$137.5/t) partly because supply is entering seasonal weakness and tight inventories.

The target for BHP Group rises to $44.50 from $44.20. Equal-weight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $44.50 Current Price is $47.42 Difference: minus $2.92 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $45.58, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DOW as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett is expecting Downer EDI to make significant progress on revenue and margin improvement, and sees ongoing contract awards and earnings improvement from a dissapointing first half of FY23 to drive likely share price recovery.

The broker expects strong public sector demand to annual earnings growth of 10% through to 2028. Alongside earnings margins expansion to 5.4%, Ord Minnett expects Downer EDI to deliver earnings of $778m by 2028.

The Accumulate rating and target price of $5.60 are retained.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $1.43
If DOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.75, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Overweight (1) -

Higher iron ore price forecasts by Morgan Stanley drive higher EPS estimates for FY24/2024 across the broker's iron ore coverage.

Ahead of GDP targets out of China, the broker anticipates benefits for iron ore fundamentals. It's also felt prices will be supported in the 1H of 2024 (forecast US$137.5/t) partly because supply is entering seasonal weakness and tight inventories.

The target for Deterra Royalties rises to $5.65 from $5.50. Overweight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $0.65
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DXS as Buy (1) -

Demand-supply dynamics will likely see the office rental market remain challenging over the next few years, but Ord Minnett believes Dexus' share price has more than accounted for downside and screens undervalued.

Ord Minnett expects population growth to bridge some demand gap over the coming years, with rapid growth expected through to 2028. The broker expects population growth will mostly benefit the company's retail and industrial assets, but offices should also benefit.

The Buy rating and target price of $10.80 are retained.

Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $7.22 Difference: $3.58
If DXS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DYL as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans believes prospective uranium developer Deep Yellow is well placed to benefit from the buoyant outlook for the commodity, and begins research coverage with a Speculative Buy rating and $1.47 target price.

The broker points out both the Tumas project in Namibia and the Mulga Rock mine in Western Australia are well advanced and supported by large uranium inventory and a highly capable management team.

The final investment decision for Tumas is due in 2024, ahead of first production slated for 2026, notes the analyst, while a definitive feasibility study for Mulga Rock is due in Q2 of 2024.

Target price is $1.47 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.42
If DYL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EDV as Outperform (1) -

At the Endeavour Group Hotels strategy day, management set targets of over 10% per annum shareholder return and mid-to high-single-digit earnings (EBIT) growth from FY26.

Management also reiterated its group $290m cost-out target by FY26. Macquarie believes some of these cost savings are likely to be reinvested.

There are no changes to the broker's forecasts and the Outperform rating and $5.60 target are maintained.

This summary is based on research released yesterday by Macquarie.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.14 Difference: $0.46
If EDV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Overweight (1) -

Despite recent all-time highs for the gold price, Morgan Stanley believes prices will be well supported moving into 2024, helped along by interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, potentially beginning from June.

The broker's target for Evolution Mining rises to $4.50 from $4.25. Overweight. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.85
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.79, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Underperform (5) -

Following recent iron ore price strength, Macquarie raises its price forecasts by between 2-6% over the next three years.

The target price for Fortescue rises to $18.20 from $16.80 and the Underperform rating is unchanged. Outperform-rated BHP Group is preferred from among iron ore stocks under the broker's coverage.

Target price is $18.20 Current Price is $25.48 Difference: minus $7.28 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.44, suggesting downside of -28.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Higher iron ore price forecasts by Morgan Stanley drive higher EPS estimates for FY24/2024 across the broker's iron ore coverage.

Ahead of GDP targets out of China, the broker anticipates benefits for iron ore fundamentals. It's also felt prices will be supported in the 1H of 2024 (forecast US$137.5/t) partly because supply is entering seasonal weakness and tight inventories.

The target for Fortescue rises to $18.40 from $16.45. Underweight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $25.48 Difference: minus $7.08 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.44, suggesting downside of -28.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Equal-weight (3) -

While lithium spot prices are trading near cost support, Morgan Stanley still sees potential for a price correction and a tough December quarter for miners.

Inflationary/cost pressures remain a key challenge for IGO, in the broker's opinion.

The target falls to $8.85 from $9.25. Equal-weight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $8.85 Current Price is $8.03 Difference: $0.82
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.72, suggesting upside of 31.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

While Morgan Stanley's mineral sands forecasts are unchanged, a lower Australian dollar lifts the broker's 2024 and 2025 forecasts for Iluka Resources.

The target rises to $7.40 from $7.15. Equal-weight. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $6.92 Difference: $0.48
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.93, suggesting upside of 28.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LRS as Buy (1) -

Latin Resources has updated the mineral resource estimate for its Colina lithium project to 63.5m tonnes at 1.31% lithium. Of this, notes Latin Resources, 41m tonnes are considered measured and indicated.

The company also announced a maiden resource estimate of 6.8m tonnes at 0.9% lithium at Fog's Block, bringing the company's global estimated resource to 70.3m tonnes.

Bell Potter expects the company will continue to define the Colina estimate in the coming year, ahead of a mid-2024 definitive feasibility study.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to 46 cents from 47 cents.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.275
If LRS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 149% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MEI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes an ongoing strong recovery outcome after reviewing Meteoric Resources' second metallurgical test result for the Caldeira project.

Recovery rates for Neodymium (Nd) and Praseodymium (Pr) were greater than 70%.

The broker anticipates material upside to the company's resource estimates given large licensed areas outside the current resource base.

The Outperform rating and 46c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.255
If MEI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 124% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MFG as Buy (1) -

Magellan Financial and Keybridge have entered into a standstill agreement over the future of the Magellan Global Fund (MGF), with the former looking to re-acquire 650m of the current options at 10 cents each, inclusive of Keybridge's 178m options.

With Keybridge's plan to wind-up/de-list MGF off the table, Magellan Financial will proceed with converting closed-class units to open-class units in the June quarter. UBS finds this a positive outcome for Magellan Financial, removing the downside risk of a wind-up scenario.

The Buy rating and target price of $10.50 are retained.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.20 Difference: $2.3
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.27, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Equal-weight (3) -

Higher iron ore price forecasts by Morgan Stanley drive higher EPS estimates for FY24/2024 across the broker's iron ore coverage.

Ahead of GDP targets out of China, the broker anticipates benefits for iron ore fundamentals. It's also felt prices will be supported in the 1H of 2024 (forecast US$137.5/t) partly because supply is entering seasonal weakness and tight inventories.

While lithium spot prices are trading near cost support, the broker still sees potential for a price correction and a tough December quarter for miners.

The target for Mineral Resources rises to $66.50 from $64. Equal-weight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $66.50 Current Price is $60.73 Difference: $5.77
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $73.79, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NSR as Buy (1) -

Given improved levels of website inquiries, Citi is predicting a return to growth in revenue per available metre and rent in December for National Storage REIT.

The broker notes occupancies are expected to reduce across the sector, but self storage in Australia retains a relatively attractive demand supply balance.

The Buy rating and target price of $2.60 are retained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: $0.28
If NSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Equal-weight (3) -

Despite recent all-time highs for the gold price, Morgan Stanley believes prices will be well supported moving into 2024, helped along by interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, potentially beginning from June.

The broker's target for Northern Star Resources rises to $12.95 from $12.30. Equal-weight. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $12.95 Current Price is $12.68 Difference: $0.27
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.88, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWH as Buy (1) -

Clear revenue visibility over the next 18-24 months has strengthened Citi's resolve that NRW Holdings could deliver another record year in FY24.

The company announced a $200m addition to its secured work balance for FY24 over recent months, largely covering the broker's revenue forecast. Citi also estimates the company has added around $120m to the $2.5bn in secured work it had previously reported for FY25.

It is NRW Holdings' capacity to pursue work that sets it apart from peers, says Citi. The stock remains a key pick for Citi and the Buy rating and target price of $3.15 are retained.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: $0.42
If NWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PFP as Outperform (1) -

In line with Macquarie's forecasts, excess deaths are normalising from extreme elevations in 2022.

The broker views NSW and Victorian births, death and marriages (BDM) data as the best proxy for Australian deaths and recent 1H data show a -7.1% year-on-year decline. This fall compares to the analyst's -8.5% forecast for the total Australian market.

The $5.95 target and Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $1.17
If PFP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.92, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Underweight (5) -

While lithium spot prices are trading near cost support, Morgan Stanley still sees potential for a price correction and a tough December quarter for miners.

Inflationary/cost pressures remain a key challenge for PLS, in the broker's opinion.

The target falls to $2.85 from $3.40. Underweight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $3.58 Difference: minus $0.73 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.48, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNV as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett notes PolyNovo sales were up 70% in November, on an implied compound annual growth rate of 49%.

The broker believes the shares are "vastly" overvalued, suspecting the market is too optimistic on the speed and extent of the company's commercial rollout and underestimating competitive pressures.

Some products are still early in the development phase. Lighten and $1.00 target retained.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If PNV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 27.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PPT as Buy (1) -

WH Soul Pattinson ((SOL)) has made a bid for Perpetual, which would see Perpetual Asset Management de-merged and returned to Perpetual shareholders, while WH Soul Pattinson would retain the Perpetual Corporate Trust and Wealth Management businesses.

At first glance the $27.00 per share offer for shares previously trading below $23.00 seems a good deal, notes Bell Potter. But the broker points out it will see shareholders sell off premium assets, and receive back assets of lesser value.

The broker would not be surprised if further offers were to materialise. The Buy rating and target price of $27.09 are retained.

Target price is $27.09 Current Price is $25.35 Difference: $1.74
If PPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.54, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPT as Accumulate (2) -

The WH Soul Pattinson takeover offer for Perpetual is broadly in line with Ord Minnett's fair value estimate of $27.50. The broker is unsurprised Perpetual rejected the deal given a lack of takeover premium.

Soul Pattinson will likely need to up the bid, the broker suggests. Some Perpetual shareholders might find a takeover offer attractive as it accelerates value accretion and mitigates execution risks associated with the announced strategic review.

Accumulate and $27.50 target retained.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $25.35 Difference: $2.15
If PPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.54, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PPT as Neutral (3) -

Perpetual has rejected a $27.00 per share bid from WH Soul Pattinson ((SOL)), with the Board indicating the offer materially undervalued both Perpetual and its Corporate Trust (PCT) and Wealth Management (WM) assets.

UBS was left unsurprised by the Board's decision to reject the offer, noting Perpetual is now undertaking strategic review to explore options to unlock value through the seperation of these key assets.

The Neutral rating and target price of $23.50 are retained.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $25.35 Difference: minus $1.85 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.54, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates REG as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

The government has announced a $2.2b increase to sector funding from December 1.

In a sector that has become conditioned to negative funding surprises, this is a material positive, Ord Minnett suggests, and is expected to support operators funding Fair Work’s 5.75% increase in annual award wage decision.

With upside to consensus near-term, operating conditions remaining supportive and positive catalysts looming, the broker upgrades Regis Healthcare to Buy from Accumulate and lifts its target to $3.50 from $3.10.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.51
If REG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Following recent iron ore price strength, Macquarie raises its price forecasts by between 2-6% over the next three years.

The target price for Rio Tinto rises to $120 from $113 and the Neutral rating is unchanged. Outperform-rated BHP Group is preferred from among iron ore stocks under the broker's coverage.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $127.76 Difference: minus $7.76 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $123.17, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Rio Tinto provided first-time 2024 Pilbara iron ore production guidance at its strategy day of 323-338mt, representing year-on-year growth of 1%, highlights Macquarie.

Guidance for mined copper of 660-720kt missed the analyst's forecast for 778kt implying potentially lower output from Escondida and a slower production ramp-up at Oyu Tolgoi. Refined copper guidance for 230-260kt beat the broker's 227kt estimate.

A key positive, according to the broker, is a faster-than-expected ramp-up at Simandou.

The target rises to $113 from $110 and the Neutral rating is unchanged.

This summary is based on research released yesterday by Macquarie.

Target price is $113.00 Current Price is $127.76 Difference: minus $14.76 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $123.17, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Higher iron ore price forecasts by Morgan Stanley drive higher EPS estimates for FY24/2024 across the broker's iron ore coverage.

Ahead of GDP targets out of China, the broker anticipates benefits for iron ore fundamentals. It's also felt prices will be supported in the 1H of 2024 (forecast US$137.5/t) partly because supply is entering seasonal weakness and tight inventories.

Rio Tinto is Morgan Stanley's key pick in the space and the target rises to $146 from $134.50. Overweight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $146.00 Current Price is $127.76 Difference: $18.24
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $123.17, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Overweight (1) -

Despite recent all-time highs for the gold price, Morgan Stanley believes prices will be well supported moving into 2024, helped along by interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, potentially beginning from June.

The broker's target for Regis Resources rises to $2.20 from $1.95. Overweight. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.295
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

As part of Macquarie's updated commodity price outlook, price forecasts rise for copper and zinc, while nickel, manganese and aluminium forecasts fall.

Because of the fall in manganese and aluminium price forecasts, the broker materially lowers its EPS forecasts for South32 and the target falls to $3.30 from $3.40. The Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: $0.17
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Ahead of GDP targets out of China, Morgan Stanley anticipates support for base metals. Outperformance is expected in 2024 as China steps up stimulus during its current macroeconomic challenges.

For copper, the analysts see supply moving further into deficit on a potential eight-month shutdown at the Cobre Panama mine in Panama. Ongoing volatility for aluminium production is expected due to aluminium smelter production cuts in China's Yunnan province.

The target for South32 falls to $3.85 from $4.20. Overweight. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: $0.72
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Equal-weight (3) -

Ahead of GDP targets out of China, Morgan Stanley anticipates support for base metals. Outperformance is expected in 2024 as China steps up stimulus during its current macroeconomic challenges.

For copper, the analysts see supply moving further into deficit on a potential eight-month shutdown at the Cobre Panama mine in Panama.

The broker's Equal-weight rating is retained for Sandfire Resources and the target falls to $6.00 from $6.10. Lower copper forecasts are offset by rising zinc/lead forecasts, but depleting resources weigh with management still to announce an extended mine life.

Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.43 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.91, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SOL as Lighten (4) -

The WH Soul Pattinson takeover offer for Perpetual is broadly in line with Ord Minnett's fair value estimate of $27.50. The broker is unsurprised Perpetual rejected the deal given a lack of takeover premium.

Soul Pattinson will likely need to up the bid, the broker suggests. Ord Minnett values Perpetual's combined private wealth and corporate trust businesses at some $1.1bn, but suggests they could be worth more in the hands of someone else.

Lighten rating and $26.90 target price retained for WH Soul Pattinson.

Target price is $26.90 Current Price is $33.04 Difference: minus $6.14 (current price is over target).
If SOL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

Woodside Energy and Santos have commenced preliminary merger talks. Citi believes there could be many positives and a few cons; potentially Woodside fixing its stagnating portfolio and Santos fixing its balance sheet.

The biggest sticking point is likely Woodside's board finding the right value that would appease frustrated Santos shareholders. However, Woodside has such a large cost of equity advantage that a price in excess of $9/share for Santos is plausible, Citi suggests.

The broker estimates the Santos equity prices 0% for Barossa but Woodside prices some 90% for Scarborough, despite both projects having identical risks, meaning Santos holders likely bear greater execution risks in MergeCo.

Buy and $8.25 target retained for Santos.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $6.83 Difference: $1.42
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.19, suggesting upside of 26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates TBN as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes completion of the Shenandoah South 1H stimulation program by Tamboran Resources.

Management expects results for the IP30 flow tests in the 1Q of FY24, which will pave the way for approval of a 40TJ/d pilot plant at Shenandoah, explains the broker.

Two key issues at the company's gas reserves in the Beetaloo Basin, according to Shaw, is whether the gas is commercially deliverable and whether ‘green tape’ will prevent a development.

The Buy, High Risk rating and target price of 42 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.285
If TBN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 211% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Citi has read October quarter results from Duckhorn as a cautionary read-through for Treasury Wine Estates' American operations. Duckhorn's results mentioned signs of softening in consumer sentiment and luxury wine trends.

The broker was surprised by the result given the category has remained reasonably resilient to date. Citi is, however, less concerned about short-term downside earnings risk given Treasury Wine Estates recently quantitative skew guidance, reducing risk of an earnings miss.

The Neutral rating and target price of $11.80 are retained.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $10.36 Difference: $1.44
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.14, suggesting upside of 25.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

With luxury wine producer Duckhorn releasing its first quarter earnings, UBS has drawn comparisons for Treasury Wine Estates.

Duckhorn narrowed full year sales guidance, attributed to a softening of consumer sentiment and luxury wine trends in the period, with data indicating a -1.6% decline across the wine market in the last twelve weeks.

Duckhorn's results suggested slightly stronger on-premise performance, relative to off-premise, in recent months, indicating a return to pre-covid behavior.

The Buy rating and target price of $13.75 are retained.

Target price is $13.75 Current Price is $10.36 Difference: $3.39
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.14, suggesting upside of 25.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Sell (5) -

Woodside Energy and Santos have commenced preliminary merger talks. Citi believes there could be many positives and a few cons; potentially Woodside fixing its stagnating portfolio and Santos fixing its balance sheet.

The biggest sticking point is likely Woodside's board finding the right value that would appease frustrated Santos shareholders. However, Woodside has such a large cost of equity advantage that a price in excess of $9/share for Santos is plausible, Citi suggests.

The broker estimates the Santos equity prices 0% for Barossa but Woodside prices some 90% for Scarborough, despite both projects having identical risks, meaning Santos holders likely bear greater execution risks in MergeCo.

Sell and $26.50 target retained for Woodside.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $29.97 Difference: minus $3.47 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.57, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Thermal pricing should be supported as the Northern Hemisphere enters into cold weather, notes Morgan Stanley. Additionally, coal is now more competitive than gas in both Asia and Europe, explain the analysts.

Demand for metallurgical coal should also be supported, in the broker's view.

The target for Whitehaven Coal rises to $8.95 from $8.90. Overweight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $8.95 Current Price is $7.16 Difference: $1.79
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.57, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Neutral (3) -

According to Citi, product enhancement delays explain the soft downgrade issues by WiseTech Global at its recent AGM, more so than the macro environment. Some product enhancements have been delayed by several months, pushing them into the second half.

The company mentioned only that these delays were related to freight forwarding, and that there is a revenue uplift in the second half as a result.

The Neutral rating and target price of $71.75 are retained.

Target price is $71.75 Current Price is $68.92 Difference: $2.83
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $76.92, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources